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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Waste Connections Inc. (WCN) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-27): Designation Low · Gem Score -19 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 70 · Value -78 · Sentiment 31 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $84.79 vs $169.42 at analysis
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Waste Connections Inc.
WCN NYSEWaste Connections Inc. is a leading North American waste management company specializing in non-hazardous waste collection, transfer, disposal, and recycling services. It provides integrated solutions to a diverse customer base, including residential communities, commercial businesses, municipalities, and industrial sectors such as offices, multi-family apartments, construction and demolition sites, property management, retail, restaurants, and manufacturing. The company operates through six geographical segments: Western, Southern, Central, Eastern, Canada, and Midsouth, supported by an extensive network of landfills and transfer stations. Waste Connections Inc. emphasizes reliable collection services with a particular focus on both urban and rural areas, positioning it as a key player in the waste management industry. Founded in 1997 and headquartered in Woodbridge, Ontario, Canada, it delivers essential environmental services across the continent, contributing to sustainable waste handling practices for communities and businesses alike.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 4.17
Total Equity: $8.25B
Shares: 257,976,741
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $45.97M
EBITDA: $2.94B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $45.97M
Revenue: $9.47B
Revenue: $9.47B
Revenue: $9.47B
Total Equity: $8.25B
Tax Rate: 24.1%
Equity: $8.25B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $45.97M
Current Liabilities: $2.12B
Long-Term Debt: $0.00
Total Debt: $0.00
Total Equity: $8.25B
Shares: 257,976,741
Shares: 257,976,741
CapEx: -$1.18B
Shares: 257,976,741
Stock Price: $169.40
Net Income: $1.08B
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 22, 2026 3:39pm (17d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $6.2B | $7.2B | $8.0B | $8.9B | $9.5B |
| Cost of Revenue | $3.7B | $4.3B | $4.7B | $5.2B | $5.5B |
| Gross Profit | $2.5B | $2.9B | $3.3B | $3.7B | $4.0B |
| Operating Expenses | $1.5B | $1.6B | $2.0B | $2.7B | $2.3B |
| Operating Income | $1.0B | $1.2B | $1.2B | $1.1B | $1.7B |
| Net Income | $618.0M | $835.7M | $762.8M | $617.6M | $1.1B |
| EBITDA | $1.9B | $2.2B | $2.2B | $2.2B | $2.9B |
| EPS | $2.37 | $3.25 | $2.96 | $2.39 | $4.18 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $2.36 | $3.24 | $2.95 | $2.39 | $4.17 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 22, 2026 3:23pm (17d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $147.4M | $78.6M | $78.4M | $62.4M | $46.0M |
| Total Current Assets | $1.0B | $1.1B | $1.1B | $1.2B | $1.3B |
| Total Assets | $14.7B | $17.1B | $17.9B | $19.8B | $21.1B |
| Current Liabilities | $1.2B | $1.5B | $1.7B | $1.9B | $2.1B |
| Long-Term Debt | $5.0B | $6.9B | — | — | — |
| Total Liabilities | $7.7B | $10.0B | $10.2B | $12.0B | $12.9B |
| Total Equity | $7.0B | $7.1B | $7.7B | $7.9B | $8.2B |
| Retained Earnings | $3.1B | $3.6B | $4.1B | $4.5B | $5.2B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 22, 2026 3:39pm (17d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $1.7B | $2.0B | $2.1B | $2.2B | $2.4B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$744.3M | -$912.7M | -$934.0M | -$1.1B | -$1.2B |
| Free Cash Flow | $953.9M | $1.1B | $1.2B | $1.2B | $1.2B |
| Acquisitions (net) | -$960.4M | -$2.2B | -$676.8M | -$2.1B | -$817.6M |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | $219.1M | $1.7B | -$233.4M | $1.3B | $544.4M |
| Dividends Paid | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stock Buybacks | -$339.0M | -$425.0M | $0 | $0 | -$505.5M |
| Net Change in Cash | -$494.8M | -$38.3M | $2.7M | $14.1M | $31.4M |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 22, 2026 3:39pm (17d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +17.2% | +11.2% | +11.2% | +6.1% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +15.2% | +14.0% | +13.7% | +7.6% |
| Operating Income Growth | +19.5% | -0.5% | -13.6% | +60.2% |
| Net Income Growth | +35.2% | -8.7% | -19.0% | +74.3% |
| EBITDA Growth | +16.7% | +3.6% | -0.4% | +31.9% |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 22, 2026 3:23pm (17d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | $0.35 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-06 | $0.35 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-25 | $0.35 | — | — | — |
| 2025-08-06 | $0.32 | — | — | — |
| 2025-05-07 | $0.32 | — | — | — |
| 2025-02-27 | $0.32 | — | — | — |
| 2024-11-07 | $0.32 | — | — | — |
| 2024-08-07 | $0.29 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-07 | $0.29 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-27 | $0.29 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-07 | $0.29 | — | — | — |
| 2023-08-15 | $0.26 | — | — | — |
| 2023-05-09 | $0.26 | — | — | — |
| 2023-02-28 | $0.26 | — | — | — |
| 2022-11-15 | $0.26 | — | — | — |
| 2022-08-17 | $0.23 | — | — | — |
| 2022-05-17 | $0.23 | — | — | — |
| 2022-03-01 | $0.23 | — | — | — |
| 2021-11-08 | $0.23 | — | — | — |
| 2021-08-17 | $0.21 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Risk : Reward — upside vs downside from this company's own quarters
Computed 2026-08-23 02:47Even the bull case prices 52% below today — the ratio here measures the model-vs-market gap, not payoff odds. Another quarter like the worst recent one costs 69%.
| Case | Growth | Margin | Fair value | vs price ($169.42) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull — recovery | +11% | 12.6% | $81.27 | -52% |
| Base — stabilizes | +7% | 11.0% | $63.59 | -62% |
| Bear — keeps slipping | +4% | 9.3% | $48.78 | -71% |
| Stress — last quarter repeats | +5% | 9.6% | $52.23 | -69% |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Growth Outlook
Analyzed 2026-08-22 15:47The question every valuation on this page silently assumes: is this company likely to grow? Judged forward — the business, its category, the world — against what's already printed.
Claude Reading
Looking at the raw numbers first: WCN is compounding revenue at ~8.6% annually ($6.15B in 2021 to $9.47B in 2025), with operating margins expanding from 17% to 18% and TTM revenue running around $9.76B annualized. The Q2 2026 print of $2.56B revenue with 11.6% net margin is genuinely strong — but earnings CAGR of 18.8% is flattered by the 2024 comp, which had that -$195M Q4 charge (likely an impairment or environmental reserve). Strip that, and normalized earnings growth is more like 8-10%, tracking revenue. FCF CAGR of 1.8% against revenue CAGR of 8.6% is the number that should sting: capex intensity is rising ($1.18B against $2.41B OCF = 49% reinvestment rate), which is what capital-intensive infrastructure businesses look like when growth requires feeding the beast. ROIC of 15.8% is respectable but not extraordinary for a 40x P/E multiple.
On the models: the synthesis DCF fair value of $85 implying a ~50% overvaluation feels directionally right but mechanically crude. A business generating $1.23B FCF growing 6-8% deserves more than a $42B enterprise value at zero terminal value — but not $42.6B market cap plus whatever debt is hidden (the "—" on total debt is a data hole; WCN definitely carries debt, likely $7-8B given historical patterns, making EV closer to $50B and EV/EBITDA of 14.8x more defensible). I'd anchor fair value at $105-120, not $85, using a 20x FCF multiple on modest growth. The narrative model's read is the sharpest of the bunch: this is anchored platform-monopoly pricing, not a bubble, and the duopoly with WM is real. Rule-based "mature earner" nails it. But calling this a 100% narrative premium overstates the case — some of that premium is warranted by the acquisition compounding machine that has genuinely worked for two decades.
The contrarian bull case the models underweight: WCN has executed the roll-up thesis better than almost any industrial in North America, and the "boring compounder" cohort (WM, RSG, WCN) has structurally re-rated over the past decade as passive flows and quality-factor allocation crowd into predictable FCF. If rates fall in 2026-2027, these bond-proxy compounders re-rate higher, not lower. Also worth noting: insider selling is de minimis (fewer than 5,000 shares across four transactions is noise, not signal — the "Neutral" tag is correct). The contrarian bear case the models underweight: landfill permit risk and PFAS liability are real tail risks not in any DCF, and the M&A math gets harder as target multiples rise — WCN paid premium prices in 2023-2024 for tuck-ins, and if organic growth slips below 5%, the whole compounding narrative cracks. Current ratio of 0.62 is thin but normal for this business model.
GPT Reading
Waste Connections is a very good business priced like an exceptional one. The operating record is easy to like: revenue has climbed from $6.15B in 2021 to $9.47B in 2025, an 11%+ annualized pace, while operating income rose from $1.04B to $1.71B and operating margin expanded to 18.1%. Quarterly revenue is still moving the right way, from $2.23B in 2025’s first quarter to $2.56B in 2026’s second quarter, and the latest quarter’s net income of $296.4M was up modestly from $290.3M a year earlier despite a strange 2024 fourth-quarter loss distorting trailing comparisons. This is exactly what you want from waste: recurring demand, pricing power, route density, and enough scale to keep gross margin around 42%. Cash generation is real too: $2.41B of operating cash flow and $1.23B of free cash flow in 2025 on $9.47B of sales is solid for a capital-intensive service business.
The problem is that the valuation already assumes the best parts of that story and then adds a premium for safety. At $42.6B market cap, investors are paying 4.6x sales, 14.8x EBITDA, 5.3x book, and 40.6x earnings for a company whose recent revenue growth is 6.1% and whose free cash flow growth over the longer period is only 1.8%. That mismatch is the key issue. Net income did rebound to $1.08B in 2025 from $617.6M in 2024, but that 2024 number was clearly depressed by a one-off charge given the -$195M fourth quarter; using that trough to justify today’s multiple flatters the growth narrative. If I normalize around the recent quarterly run-rate—roughly $1.06B of annual earnings from the last four quarters—the stock is still around 40x earnings. For a regulated, asset-heavy consolidator with high capex of $1.18B annually and a dividend yield of just 0.8%, that is rich. High-teen ROIC of 15.8% is strong, but not strong enough to support a near-consumer-staples scarcity multiple plus an acquisition-compounder premium indefinitely.
What stands out most is that the balance between accounting earnings and cash compounding is not as pristine as the quality aura suggests. Revenue CAGR of 8.6% and earnings CAGR of 18.8% look impressive on paper, but free cash flow CAGR at 1.8% tells you a lot of the growth is being absorbed by capital intensity. This is not a software-like rollup where incremental margins explode upward; it is a business that requires trucks, landfill investment, and continuous reinvestment just to sustain network quality. The current ratio of 0.62 also reminds you this is operationally efficient but not balance-sheet luxurious. The debt line is oddly blank while debt-to-equity is shown as zero, which I do not find credible for a company of this type; that data inconsistency alone makes me less willing to give full credit to simplistic multiple screens that understate enterprise obligations. Even if the company deserves a premium to slower or less disciplined peers, paying 15x EBITDA for mid-single-digit organic growth leaves little room for regulatory cost creep, acquisition missteps, or simple multiple compression.
The strongest counterargument is that waste deserves to be expensive because it is one of the best defensive oligopolies in the market. WCN has shown it can convert scale into margin gains, with operating margin recovering from 13.4% in 2024 to 18.1% in 2025, and quarterly net margins back in the 11%-12% zone after the anomaly. If that 2024 hit was truly non-recurring, then the earnings base is cleaner than the P/E suggests, and a business compounding revenue high single digits with ROIC above 15% can plausibly trade at a large premium. Bulls will also point out that 2026 revenue is tracking above 2025 levels, with first-half sales of $4.93B versus $4.64B in the prior-year first half, and first-half net income of $515.7M versus $531.8M despite whatever mix and cost pressures may have hit the March quarter. In other words, the underlying machine is still humming, and scarcity value matters when institutions want durable, recession-resistant compounders. I accept that argument up to a point; I just think it justifies maybe a market premium, not a valuation that appears to discount years of smooth execution with minimal cyclicality and steady M&A accretion.
What would change my mind is either price or proof. On proof, I would need to see 2026 deliver something closer to $10.0B-$10.2B of revenue, net income comfortably above $1.2B, and free cash flow moving materially above $1.4B without capex ballooning—evidence that the business can genuinely turn top-line growth into owner earnings faster than it has historically. I’d also want clean disclosure on leverage, because the blank debt field is too important to ignore in a capital-intensive consolidator. On price, if the stock fell into roughly the $125-$140 range without a fundamental break, the quality premium would start to look more defensible; above $169, I think investors are overpaying for certainty.
Grok Reading
The numbers describe a high-quality but thoroughly mature waste franchise that the market has decided to price like a growth compounder. Waste Connections put up $9.47B of revenue in 2025 with a 42.4% gross margin, 18.1% operating margin and $1.08B of net income—clean recovery from the distorted 2024 print that absorbed a $195M Q4 loss and left full-year NI at only $618M. Revenue has compounded at 8.6% over the multi-year window and is still advancing at a 6.1% recent clip, while quarterly net margins have re-stabilized in the 9–12% band. Operating cash flow of $2.41B and free cash flow of $1.23B confirm the business converts earnings, and a 15.8% ROIC is genuinely impressive for a capital-intensive hauler. None of that is in dispute. What is in dispute is paying 40.6× trailing earnings, 4.6× sales and a 2.9% FCF yield for an enterprise whose free-cash-flow CAGR is a meager 1.8% and whose organic growth is mid-single digits plus bolt-on M&A. The valuation engine’s ~$85–86 fair value versus a $169 stock is directionally correct: the market is capitalizing a durable oligopoly narrative at roughly double the cash-flow anchor.
The contradiction that matters most is between reported earnings momentum and cash generation. Earnings CAGR of 18.8% and a 74% recent YoY NI jump look spectacular until you remember they are largely the bounce off a one-time 2024 hole; FCF has barely grown. Capex remains heavy at $1.18B, the balance sheet shows only $46M of cash against a sub-1.0 current ratio, and the dividend yield is a token 0.8%. This is a classic mature earner—predictable, recession-resistant, consolidating a fragmented industry—being asked to justify a perpetual-quality multiple that embeds continued mid-teens ROIC, flawless integration of premium-priced tuck-ins, and margin expansion that the last eight quarters simply do not show. EV/EBITDA of 14.8× is the least offensive multiple on the sheet, yet even that leaves little room if volume softens or landfill and carbon regulation tightens the cost structure.
The strongest counter-argument is that 14.8× EBITDA and a 15.8% ROIC in a rational duopoly with pricing power and secular volume tailwinds is not absurd, and that the DCF may be too punitive on terminal growth and M&A accretion. Institutions have been willing to own “boring essential infrastructure” through rate cycles precisely because the cash flows are sticky and the platform cannot be easily replicated at national scale; the narrative layer correctly flags durability rather than cult. A smart opponent would also note that 2024’s earnings crater makes trailing P/E look worse than a normalized mid-cycle number, and that Waste Connections has historically earned the right to a premium versus lesser regional operators. I weigh those points seriously—the business quality is real—but they do not close a nearly 100% gap between price and fundamental value when FCF is stagnating and organic growth is ordinary. Paying forty times earnings for high-single-digit top-line growth and low-single-digit FCF growth is a bet on multiple maintenance, not on the cash the company actually produces.
I would reverse to neutral or better if trailing FCF growth re-accelerates sustainably above 8–10%, if operating margins push through 20% on pricing and density rather than one-offs, or if the stock compressed into the low-to-mid $100s while earnings power held, bringing P/E back toward the mid-20s and FCF yield above 4%. Until then the asymmetry sits with the bears.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Waste Connections is a mature earner behaving like one: revenue has grown from $6.15B in 2021 to $9.47B in 2025 (~11% CAGR, largely roll-up driven), gross margin has drifted up from 40.6% to 42.4%, and FCF has climbed from $954M to $1.23B. Net income dipped in 2024 to $618M (op margin 12%) - likely impairment/one-off noise given OCF was undisturbed - and snapped back to $1.08B in 2025 with op margin at 18.1%. Earnings quality is genuinely strong: OCF/NI at 2.76x, accruals -7.3% of assets, Beneish M -2.71, Altman Z of 3. Numbers are real.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Nature of the 2024 net income / op margin compression - impairment, deal costs, or operational?
- Debt load, maturity ladder, and interest coverage given the acquisitive model and only $46M cash
- Organic vs. acquired revenue growth split - how much of the 11% CAGR is same-store pricing/volume vs. M&A
- Customer/geographic concentration in secondary and exclusive markets
- Any environmental/landfill closure liabilities or contingent obligations off balance sheet
The e2e composite fair value lands at $86.40 (signal-adjusted $85.17) against a $169.42 price - roughly 2x deserved value, or -50% implied downside. Even the more generous DCF at $104.13 leaves ~40% downside, while the EPV floor at $50.94 says the in-place earnings power alone justifies only about 30% of today's price. The gap between EPV and price is the tell: ~70% of the market cap is capitalized future M&A and margin expansion, not current cash flows. That is a heroic ask for a mature, mid-single-digit organic grower in a capital-intensive industry. Quality is genuinely high (score 70, clean earnings, disciplined share count, FCF rising through the 2024 GAAP dip), which absolutely raises deserved value versus a generic industrial - but the earnings-quality signal is already clean, so there is no haircut to apply and no hidden value to unlock. A strong compounder does not automatically deserve 2x its own DCF. The bull case (irreplaceable network, disciplined roll-up) is real but fully in the price; the bear case (mature growth, ESG/landfill constraints, M&A multiples creeping) is the swing factor and is not discounted at all. Fair verdict: a wonderful business at a full-to-rich price. I would want a materially lower entry before the risk/reward tilts my way.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Organic growth rate ex-M&A in latest guidance - is it truly mid-single digits or decelerating
- Incremental acquisition multiples paid in last 4-8 quarters vs historical
- Landfill capacity runway and any pending regulatory/ESG cost accruals
- Whether the EPV method is penalizing a genuine reinvestment runway or correctly flagging capital intensity
- 2024 GAAP earnings dip drivers - confirm one-off nature vs structural
The macro backdrop is mildly risk-on but jittery (VIX 15, S&P off its high, 10y at 4.69%), and with a beta of just 0.48 WCN barely feels the tape either way. What actually drives this name is the narrative, and that narrative - an irreplaceable, duopoly-adjacent waste platform compounding through disciplined M&A - is strong, durable, and low-cult. That is a persistent tailwind: investors keep paying up because the story is trusted, not because it is hyped. Momentum confirms it - 8.6% CAGR with low volatility is the tape signature of a name being accumulated as a defensive compounder. In a stretched market at 25.7x, capital rotates toward exactly this profile. News flow is a non-event (an anodyne post-earnings recap), analyst tone is quiet, and the recent 3.7% drawdown was flagged as sector rotation, not company-specific - the kind of shallow wobble a low-beta compounder shakes off. The one live risk to the sentiment read is that the narrative already prices in a ~100% premium to DCF; if defensive-compounder love cools or ESG/landfill headlines flare, there is a long way for multiple sentiment to give back. For now, though, the pressure on THIS name is net positive.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Any crack in the compounder narrative - a bad tuck-in deal, an integration miss, or slowing organic growth print
- ESG or landfill-permit headlines that could puncture the platform story
- Rotation OUT of defensive compounders if the tape flips decisively risk-on and money chases beta
- Analyst target revisions and consensus dispersion around the next print
Waste collection is one of the few industrial subsectors where the world changing around it barely moves the top line: volumes track household formation and consumption, and price resets annually regardless of GDP. The macro headwinds noted — 4.69% ten-year, a steepening curve — matter more to the M&A arithmetic than to demand, raising the cost of the leverage that funds tuck-ins and modestly compressing the spread between acquisition multiples and returns. Two structural currents cut the other way: permitting scarcity keeps disposal assets appreciating in strategic value, and methane/RNG regulation converts landfill gas from a compliance cost into a revenue stream. The genuine long-run threat is not competition but regulation of the landfill itself — PFAS liability and cap constraints raise the capital intensity of every ton buried. Net: a business whose growth is structurally insulated but whose margin path is increasingly regulator-determined.
When we made this prediction on Aug 23, 2026, WCN was $169.42. We expect it to be $157.80 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $120.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 23, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.
Post-Report Due Diligence NOTES
Evidence for a closer look, not a verdict — no score or designation on this page has been changed by it. Items marked material are ones where a conclusion above moves to the other side of the price.