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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Royal Gold, Inc. (RGLD) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-10-07): Designation Watch · Gem Score -13 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 66 · Value -66 · Sentiment 56 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $84.91 vs $262.19 at analysis
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profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
price-history,income-trend,key-metrics,financials(statement tables),insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.
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Royal Gold, Inc.
RGLD NASDAQRoyal Gold, Inc. is a precious metals streaming and royalty company based in Denver, Colorado. Royal Gold acquires and manages stream interests, royalty interests, and related production-based interests in mining projects, allowing it to participate in output from partner-operated mines rather than directly operating them. Its portfolio is centered on gold, with exposure to silver, copper, and other metals across producing, development, evaluation, and exploration-stage properties. The company works with mining operators across multiple regions, including North America, Latin America, Africa, Europe, the Middle East, and the Australia Pacific. Through its stream and royalty model, Royal Gold plays a financing and asset-management role within the mining sector, providing a diversified way to hold interests in mineral production.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 6.69
Total Equity: $7.21B
Shares: 69,560,911
Total Debt: $895.44M
Cash: $233.72M
EBITDA: $815.25M
Total Debt: $895.44M
Cash: $233.72M
Revenue: $1.03B
Revenue: $1.03B
Revenue: $1.03B
Total Equity: $7.21B
Tax Rate: 17.8%
Equity: $7.21B
Total Debt: $895.44M
Cash: $233.72M
Current Liabilities: $120.92M
Long-Term Debt: $895.44M
Total Debt: $895.44M
Total Equity: $7.21B
Shares: 69,560,911
Shares: 69,560,911
CapEx: $0.00
Shares: 69,560,911
Stock Price: $262.19
Net Income: $466.28M
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Sep 5, 2026 2:38am (32d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $653.6M | $603.2M | $605.7M | $719.4M | $1.0B |
| Cost of Revenue | $98.5M | $280.1M | $262.3M | $248.2M | $316.1M |
| Gross Profit | $555.1M | $323.1M | $343.4M | $471.2M | $714.3M |
| Operating Expenses | $226.7M | $39.4M | $40.2M | $41.3M | $76.2M |
| Operating Income | $328.4M | $283.7M | $303.2M | $429.9M | $638.2M |
| Net Income | $274.0M | $239.0M | $239.4M | $332.0M | $466.3M |
| EBITDA | $517.4M | $462.6M | $468.1M | $574.3M | $815.2M |
| EPS | $4.17 | $3.64 | $3.64 | $5.04 | $6.70 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $4.17 | $3.63 | $3.63 | $5.04 | $6.69 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Sep 5, 2026 2:30am (32d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $143.6M | $118.6M | $104.2M | $195.5M | $233.7M |
| Total Current Assets | $216.0M | $185.8M | $167.4M | $275.3M | $377.4M |
| Total Assets | $2.8B | $3.5B | $3.4B | $3.4B | $9.5B |
| Current Liabilities | $61.4M | $63.6M | $72.4M | $85.2M | $120.9M |
| Long-Term Debt | — | $571.6M | $246.0M | $0 | $895.4M |
| Total Liabilities | $155.8M | $781.1M | $460.4M | $260.9M | $2.3B |
| Total Equity | $2.6B | $2.8B | $2.9B | $3.1B | $7.2B |
| Retained Earnings | $381.9M | $527.3M | $666.5M | $890.0M | $1.2B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Sep 5, 2026 2:47am (32d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $461.9M | $417.3M | $415.8M | $529.5M | $704.8M |
| Capital Expenditure | — | — | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — | — | — |
| Acquisitions (net) | — | — | $0 | $0 | -$411.3M |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | -$300.0M | -$125.0M | -$325.0M | -$250.0M | -$375.0M |
| Dividends Paid | -$78.7M | -$91.9M | -$98.6M | -$105.2M | -$118.5M |
| Stock Buybacks | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net Change in Cash | -$238.3M | -$25.0M | -$14.4M | $91.3M | $38.2M |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Sep 5, 2026 2:38am (32d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | -7.7% | +0.4% | +18.8% | +43.2% |
| Gross Profit Growth | -41.8% | +6.3% | +37.2% | +51.6% |
| Operating Income Growth | -13.6% | +6.9% | +41.8% | +48.4% |
| Net Income Growth | -12.8% | +0.2% | +38.7% | +40.4% |
| EBITDA Growth | -10.6% | +1.2% | +22.7% | +41.9% |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Sep 1, 2026 11:25am (36d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | $0.48 | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-02 | $0.48 | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-02 | $0.48 | — | — | — |
| 2026-01-02 | $0.48 | — | — | — |
| 2025-10-03 | $0.45 | — | — | — |
| 2025-07-03 | $0.45 | — | — | — |
| 2025-04-04 | $0.45 | — | — | — |
| 2025-01-03 | $0.45 | — | — | — |
| 2024-10-04 | $0.40 | — | — | — |
| 2024-07-05 | $0.40 | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-04 | $0.40 | — | — | — |
| 2024-01-04 | $0.40 | — | — | — |
| 2023-10-05 | $0.38 | — | — | — |
| 2023-07-06 | $0.38 | — | — | — |
| 2023-04-05 | $0.38 | — | — | — |
| 2023-01-05 | $0.38 | — | — | — |
| 2022-10-06 | $0.35 | — | — | — |
| 2022-06-30 | $0.35 | — | — | — |
| 2022-03-31 | $0.35 | — | — | — |
| 2022-01-06 | $0.35 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Risk : Reward — upside vs downside from this company's own quarters
Computed 2026-10-07 02:03A +1σ run of quarters pays +57%; a −1σ run costs 42%. Ratio 1.4:1 (μ 68.9%, σ 54.5% , 16 pairs).
Older method (repeat-worst-quarter): 141.2 : 1
| Case | Growth | Margin | Fair value | vs price ($262.19) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull — recovery | +149% | 35.0% | $3,160.56 | +1105% |
| Base — stabilizes | +99% | 35.0% | $1,257.12 | +379% |
| Bear — keeps slipping | +50% | 35.0% | $407.64 | +55% |
| Stress — last quarter repeats | +30% | 35.0% | $241.66 | -8% |
| Upside — a +1σ run of quarters (v2) | +50% | 35.0% | $410.95 | +57% |
| Stress — a −1σ run of quarters (v2) | +14% | 35.0% | $153.17 | -42% |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Growth Outlook
Analyzed 2026-09-05 02:53The question every valuation on this page silently assumes: is this company likely to grow? Judged forward — the business, its category, the world — against what's already printed.
Claude Reading
Looking at the raw quarterly print first: revenue jumped from $202M in Q4'24 to $469M in Q1'26 and $450M in Q2'26 — a 2.2x expansion in six quarters. That is not organic royalty growth; that is gold ripping from ~$2,000 to ~$3,300+/oz plus the Sandstorm/Horizon deals closing. Strip the gold price move and RGLD's underlying stream volumes are growing single digits. The Q4'25 margin collapse to 24.9% (NI $93.6M on $375M revenue) versus 60%+ in adjacent quarters screams one-time impairment or deal-related charge — that's the kind of print that gets waved away but reveals the portfolio is not the frictionless cash machine the narrative sells. TTM net income ~$738M on a $22.2B cap is a trailing P/E of ~30, not 39 — the canonical metric is stale by two blowout quarters. On current run-rate earnings (~$1B annualized if Q1-Q2'26 holds), this is trading at ~22x, which is not obviously expensive for a royalty model IF gold holds.
That "if" is the whole ballgame, and this is where I partially dissent from the synthesis. The composite fair value of $216 implicitly assumes gold mean-reverts. If you believe $3,000+ gold is the new floor (central bank buying, de-dollarization, fiscal dominance), then run-rate FCF of ~$700M growing with volume plus price gives you a fair value materially north of $262. If you believe gold gives back $500-800/oz, RGLD earnings compress 30-40% and $216 looks generous. The synthesis, market-forces, and narrative layers are all doing the same thing — anchoring to a mean-reverting gold assumption without saying so explicitly. That's the intellectually honest framing they're dodging: this isn't a valuation call, it's a gold call wearing a valuation costume.
The contrarian long argument that nobody's making: royalty/streaming companies structurally re-rate higher during sustained bull cycles because the optionality on new stream deals compounds — Royal Gold just did the Sandstorm deal, and in a high-gold-price environment new stream origination gets more lucrative, not less (miners need capital, and RGLD has cost of capital advantage). ROE at 6.5% and ROIC at 6.7% look terrible on the surface but reflect the $7.2B equity base being marked at historic cost while cash flows are re-pricing to spot — a book-value denominator problem, not a business-quality problem. Insider selling is real but the volumes are trivial (a few thousand shares per transaction against a $22B cap) — this is routine 10b5-1 disposition, not a signal. The "heavy insider selling" framing in market-forces is overweighted.
Where I land: the synthesis verdict of "fully priced with $228 signal-adjusted fair value" is directionally reasonable but too confident in its mean-reversion assumption and too willing to trust a stale 39x P/E that ignores the two most recent quarters. The narrative layer's read that this is "moderate anchored" is right. My honest read is that RGLD is fairly-to-mildly-overvalued at $262 on a normalized gold assumption ($2,600-2,800/oz), but the asymmetry has narrowed — you're paying a modest premium for a genuinely capital-light, counter-cyclical asset with a two-decade dividend track record. The decelerating revenue trend flag from the confidence layer is wrong — sequential Q2'26 dip from $469M to $450M is noise, not deceleration. I don't see a table-pounding short here, and I don't see a compelling long unless you're bullish gold. Fair value range $230-275 depending on your gold deck; current price is at the top of that range, not through it. Prefer waiting for a $220-230 pullback (likely on any gold correction) rather than chasing here, but this is not a "sell" — it's a "don't add."
GPT Reading
Royal Gold is a superb business and, at this price, a mediocre stock. The raw numbers show why investors pay up: annual revenue jumped from $719.4M in 2024 to $1.03B in 2025, operating income from $429.9M to $638.2M, and net income from $332.0M to $466.3M, while margins remained extraordinary at 69.3% gross, 61.9% operating, and 45.3% net. The quarterly run-rate in 2026 is even stronger: the last four quarters sum to about $1.55B of revenue and roughly $738M of net income, implying an annualized P/E closer to 30x than the stated 39x if current conditions hold. This is what the simple screens miss: reported “high-growth profitable” is directionally right in a near-term sense, but the quality of that growth matters. This is not a software platform suddenly unlocking a larger TAM; it is a royalty vehicle benefiting from a major move in underlying metal prices and asset performance. Great model, yes; recurring secular hyper-growth, no.
What stands out most is the torque in the model once gold prices and deliveries cooperate. Revenue went from $193.8M in the September 2024 quarter to $469.1M by March 2026, then held at a still-massive $450.5M in June 2026. Net margins mostly stayed between 50% and 63%, except for the December 2025 quarter, where revenue was $375.3M but net income fell to $93.6M, a 24.9% margin. That quarter is the key tell: even for a royalty company, earnings are not a straight line, and non-cash charges, mix, or contract-specific effects can make “stable compounder” narratives look cleaner than reality. The balance sheet is healthy enough to absorb volatility — $233.7M cash against $895.4M debt and just 0.124x debt/equity — and operating cash flow of $704.8M on 2025 net income of $466.3M confirms earnings quality is strong. But a business can be both resilient and cyclical. At $22.2B market cap, investors are paying roughly 14x-15x the current annualized earnings run-rate and over 18x trailing sales for a company whose top line is still tethered to commodity prices and mine-level execution.
That valuation is where I part ways with any bullish framing. Even after adjusting for the capital-light royalty structure, 17.7x sales, 23.1x EV/EBITDA, and 2.5x book are premium multiples that leave little room for gold to stop going up. ROE of 6.5% and ROIC of 6.7% are not bad in isolation for a conservatively financed royalty holder, but they do not scream that a $22B equity value is obviously cheap; they suggest the accounting base is large relative to current earnings power. The dividend yield at 0.72% is token support, not valuation support. If I annualize the last two quarters, I get about $1.84B in revenue and $1.03B in net income, which would make today’s price look less demanding. But that would be exactly the mistake: capitalizing peak-ish conditions as if they are normalized. For a gold-exposed business, I’d rather underwrite on 2025 earnings plus some uplift than on a two-quarter spike. On that basis, the stock looks fully priced to expensive above $260.
The strongest case against my view is simple and respectable: Royal Gold deserves a structural premium because this is one of the cleanest ways to own precious metals upside without mine operating risk, and the recent acceleration may not be a blip. If the business has genuinely stepped onto a new earnings plateau — say revenue sustaining above $1.5B and net income around $800M-$1.0B annually — then a 30x earnings multiple is not crazy for an asset-light, low-debt, high-margin franchise with scarcity value. The market can also point to the cash generation: $704.8M of operating cash flow in 2025 with minimal capital intensity means more of each dollar of revenue is distributable or deployable into new streams. And the insider sales listed are small enough in share count that I would not over-interpret them. Those are fair points. I weigh them less heavily because the company’s recent growth is too correlated with favorable external conditions, and the one ugly earnings quarter in an otherwise pristine series is a reminder that this model is safer than miners, not immune from volatility.
What would change my mind is evidence that the higher 2026 revenue base is durable without margin degradation. If the next two quarters stay above roughly $400M of revenue with net margins back near 50%-55%, then the market’s willingness to value RGLD on a much higher normalized earnings base would be justified, and I’d be more constructive even around current levels. I’d also want to see operating cash flow track toward $900M+ on a forward annual basis and debt remain controlled despite any new dealmaking. Conversely, if revenue slips back toward the $250M-$300M range or another quarter prints a sub-30% net margin, the current multiple will look plainly too high. For now, I see an excellent royalty franchise being priced as though elevated gold economics are the new permanent baseline.
Grok Reading
The numbers show a royalty and streaming franchise firing on all cylinders into a gold up-cycle, then getting paid for it at a scarcity premium that no longer leaves much margin of safety. Annual revenue jumped from $719M in 2024 to $1.03B in 2025 (+43%), with operating cash flow of $705M against a balance sheet that carries only $895M of debt and $7.2B of equity. Trailing net margin sits near 45%, gross margin near 69%, and recent quarterly prints—$469M then $450M in the first half of calendar 2026—are roughly double the run-rate of mid-2024. That is real operating leverage from a capital-light model. The contradiction is valuation versus returns on capital: a 39× P/E, 18× sales, and 23× EV/EBITDA sit on top of ROE of 6.5% and ROIC of 6.7%. Those returns are mediocre for any business, let alone one priced like a high-quality compounder. The market is not paying for superior capital efficiency; it is paying for gold-price torque and the scarcity of pure-play royalty paper. At $262 versus a composite fair-value band around $216–$228, that premium is already embedded.
Quarterly trajectory also softens the growth narrative the multiple assumes. Revenue decelerated from $469M to $450.5M sequentially, and the Q4 2025 net margin collapse to 25% (NI only $94M on $375M revenue) shows earnings can still swing hard even in a strong gold tape. Insider activity is uniformly sales—small lots, but zero buys through a period of record results—which is consistent with management treating the current price as a place to distribute, not accumulate. Dividend yield of 0.7% with a 25% payout does not compensate equity holders for a 39× earnings multiple if gold mean-reverts or a key stream underperforms. Momentum metrics (30%+ revenue and FCF CAGRs, 40%+ earnings CAGR) look excellent in isolation; they are the product of a commodity cycle layered on a fixed royalty base, not of unit-volume compounding that will persist at the same rate once the gold price base effect rolls off.
The strongest counter-argument is structural: this is one of a handful of scaled public royalty vehicles, margins and cash conversion are elite, leverage is low (D/E 0.12, current ratio 3.1), and the business genuinely avoids mine operating risk. A bull can fairly say that 39× on trough-cycle earnings would be cheap, and that if gold holds above roughly $2,200–$2,500 with continued stream acquisitions, the present multiple is simply the toll for non-operational gold exposure. Prior model fair values near $228 could understate scarcity value and the durability of the royalty cash-flow stream. I weigh that less heavily because ROIC in the mid-single digits already incorporates whatever scarcity advantage exists today; paying 18× revenue for mid-single-digit returns on capital only works if gold prices and portfolio ounces keep rising in lockstep. The data do not yet show that the company is compounding capital at a rate that justifies the premium—it is harvesting a gold boom.
What flips the verdict is either a sustained step-up in portfolio ounces (new large streams closing and delivering) that lifts ROIC toward low-double digits while gold stays elevated, or a 15–20% price drawdown into the low $220s that restores a margin of safety against the same cash flows. Conversely, two consecutive quarters of revenue below ~$400M or a material impairment/credit event at a top-five royalty would confirm the cycle peak is behind the stock and force a lower multiple.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Royal Gold's royalty/streaming structure is showing up in the numbers: revenue jumped from $605.7M (2023) to $1.03B (2025), operating margin expanded to 61.9%, and net income hit $466.3M. Free cash flow scaled to $704.8M, and OCF/NI of 1.65x plus accruals of -5.1% of assets indicate the earnings are cash-backed rather than accrual-flattered. Altman Z of 6.25 places it firmly in the safe zone. Capital structure is disciplined for a resource business: diluted share count grew only from 65.6M (2021) to 69.6M (2025), a ~1.5% CAGR, with SBC just 1.2% of revenue. Net debt of -$661.7M against $704.8M annual FCF is trivial - roughly one year of FCF - so leverage is a rounding item, not a constraint. The main quality caveats are structural rather than forensic. Royalty companies ride the underlying commodity: the 2025 margin/revenue leap is inseparable from gold's price move, and the 2022-2023 flat patch (revenue $603-606M) shows the model is not immune to cycle. Insider activity is all sales (14 sells, 0 buys, $3.5M), though volumes are small and consistent with routine disposition rather than a red flag. No P-code open-market accumulation from insiders is a mild negative tone but not a quality-destroyer given the mechanical strength of the financials.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Concentration of the royalty/stream portfolio by mine and counterparty (top 3-5 assets as % of revenue)
- Terms and remaining duration on the largest streams (Mount Milligan, Pueblo Viejo, Andacollo, etc.)
- How much of the 2024-2025 revenue jump is volume vs. gold price - separate operating leverage from commodity beta
- Debt maturity schedule and any covenants tied to the credit facility that produced the $661.7M net debt
- Whether 2026 insider sales are 10b5-1 programmatic or discretionary
The e2e composite lands at $216.52 and the signal-adjusted FV at $228.43, implying roughly -13% to -17% downside from $262.19. The anchored-PE cross-check at $261.91 essentially matches spot, meaning the market is paying a full multiple on trailing earnings that were themselves lifted by a strong gold tape. The EPV floor of $57.65 is a runaway low-end artifact (implies gold prices collapse and streams reprice) and should be discounted as a bounding exercise, not a target. Quality is genuinely high (66, Strong) and earnings quality is clean, so deserved value deserves a premium multiple - but that premium is already in the tape. To justify $262 you need gold to stay above $2,000/oz durably and portfolio production to hold; the 2022-2023 flat stretch is a reminder that when gold beta fades, so does the multiple. This is a good business at a full price, which is the textbook zero-edge setup for a valuation lens.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Gold price assumption embedded in sell-side models vs spot
- Portfolio production guidance and any mine-level concentration risk
- Stream additions and capital deployment pace - are new deals accretive at current gold?
- Any one-time gains in trailing FCF that flatter the anchored-PE input
The active narrative here is the strongest force: RGLD is being treated as a defensive gold-royalty compounder in a world where central bank buying, geopolitical unease, and inflation-hedge demand keep the gold bid intact. That story is moderate-intensity, moderate-durability, and it maps cleanly onto price action -- 43% recent versus 30% long-term CAGR shows the tape is actively rewarding this archetype, not just tolerating it. With beta 0.46, the mild risk-on regime is a small positive but not the driver; this name would hold up in a risk-off tape too, which is precisely why sentiment leans tailwind rather than dependent on the S&P. The macro backdrop is mixed but net supportive for the story: a 10y at 4.77% is a nominal drag on non-yielding gold, yet stretched market PE at 25.8 and lingering macro anxiety are exactly what feeds the gold narrative that lifts RGLD. News flow is quiet -- a non-deal roadshow is neutral-to-slightly-positive housekeeping. There is no crack in the story, no analyst downgrade cycle visible, no negative catalyst in the tape.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Gold price holding above the $2,000 level that underpins the premium narrative
- Any production miss or mine-credit event in the royalty portfolio that could crack the steady-compounder story
- Real yields breaking meaningfully higher (10y TIPS) which would pressure the entire gold cohort
- Sector rotation out of defensives if risk-on regime deepens and dulls the gold bid
The world is repricing gold — central bank accumulation, geopolitical hedging and fiscal anxiety — and royalty companies are the highest-beta-to-price, lowest-beta-to-cost way to express it. RGLD's business direction is therefore mostly a function of a macro variable, offset by the fact that its contracts are perpetual and its cost base does not inflate with the boom (unlike the operators, whose margins get eaten by labor, energy and grade decline). The tension to watch is real rates: at a 4.77% 10y, gold is rallying despite an environment that historically suppresses it, which means the bid is structural (official-sector, de-dollarization) rather than cyclical. If that bid persists, RGLD's revenue holds its new plateau and grows with operator-funded mine-life extension. If it fades, RGLD does not shrink structurally — the royalties still pay — but reported growth goes flat fast. That asymmetry is why the near rungs and the structural rung split.
When we made this prediction on Sep 5, 2026, RGLD was $262.19. We expect it to be $250.00 by Mar 2027, and we consider it great value under $205.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Sep 5, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.