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AGING Analysis Report
Aug 3, 2026
20 days ago · 100% complete
NOT DEPENDABLE This report predates a filing — its financial basis has been replaced.
Report generated: Aug 3, 2026 · Filing on record since: Aug 19, 2026 · 15 days after
For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page

What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for DocuSign Inc. (DOCU) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.

Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Watch · Gem Score +18 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 75 · Value -29 · Sentiment -9 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $53.27 vs $55.09 at analysis

Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable reference-name attribute you can cite):

  • profile-header / price-overview — company profile, live quote, market cap
  • extended-analysisthe core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memo
  • future-predictions — our forward price-band predictions
  • market-narrative / ai-findings / gpt-critique — narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)
  • Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers): price-history, income-trend, key-metrics, financials (statement tables), insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.

More for machine readers: site briefing at /llms.txt · any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER · raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds); every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.

DocuSign Inc.

DOCU NASDAQ
Technology · Software - Application
San Francisco, CA 94105, United States docusign.com Updated Aug 3, 5:10pm
Price
$55.09
Market Cap
$10.5B
Employees
6,838
Beta
0.90
Avg Volume
3,776,490
CEO
Mr. Allan C. Thygesen

DocuSign Inc. is a technology company that provides cloud-based agreement and electronic signature solutions for businesses and individuals worldwide. Its core platform enables users to prepare, send, sign, and manage digital agreements securely from virtually any device, helping to replace manual, paper-based workflows with automated, trackable processes. DocuSign’s offerings include electronic signatures, contract lifecycle management, document generation, web forms, notary capabilities, and standards-based digital signatures, supporting complex requirements such as identity management, authentication, and compliance. These solutions are used across sectors including financial services, real estate, healthcare, public sector, and technology to streamline onboarding, approvals, and contract execution. Through its Agreement Cloud suite, DocuSign integrates with major business applications to embed agreement workflows directly into existing systems. Founded in 2003 and headquartered in San Francisco, California, DocuSign plays a significant role in the enterprise software market by helping organizations reduce administrative friction and maintain secure, auditable records of their business transactions.

Runs with full report Generated: Aug 3, 2026 5:19pm
Price Overview
Price at report time
$55.09
as of Aug 3, 5:30pm (20d ago)
Change · Aug 3
+0.26 (+0.47%)
Day Range
$55.07 – $57.00
52-Week Range
$40.16 – $86.65
50-Day MA
$48.71
200-Day MA
$54.61
Volume
2,617,997.00
Right now · live
Log in to get the live feed
Members see the real-time price and the move since this report (over 20d).
Share Structure
Outstanding 193,057,000.00
Float 189,753,114.00
Free Float 98.3%
High free float — 98.3% of shares trade freely, ~1.7% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 5:30pm (20d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 5:30pm (20d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
TD Twelve Data statement HEX SEC filing
Industry comparison last run: Aug 3, 2026 5:16pm
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
HEX
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
37.22
Stock Price: $55.09
EPS (Diluted): 1.48
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
HEX
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
6.01
Stock Price: $55.09
Total Equity: $1.92B
Shares: 209,118,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
HEX
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
23.92
Market Cap: $10.52B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $602.44M
EBITDA: $414.66M
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
HEX
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$9.9B
Market Cap: $10.52B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $602.44M
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
HEX
Gross Profit / Revenue
79.4%
Gross Profit: $2.56B
Revenue: $3.22B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
HEX
Operating Income / Revenue
9.3%
Operating Income: $298.58M
Revenue: $3.22B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
HEX
Net Income / Revenue
9.6%
Net Income: $309.09M
Revenue: $3.22B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
HEX
Net Income / Total Equity
16.1%
Net Income: $309.09M
Total Equity: $1.92B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
HEX
NOPAT / Invested Capital
20.2%
Operating Income: $298.58M
Tax Rate: 11.0%
Equity: $1.92B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $602.44M
Zero debt — invested capital = equity minus cash (very efficient)
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
HEX
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
0.73
Current Assets: $1.49B
Current Liabilities: $2.04B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
HEX
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.00
Short-Term Debt: $0.00
Long-Term Debt: $0.00
Total Debt: $0.00
Total Equity: $1.92B
Zero debt — this company carries no debt obligations. Strongest possible score.
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
HEX
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$15.40
Revenue: $3.22B
Shares: 209,118,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
HEX
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$9.17
Total Equity: $1.92B
Shares: 209,118,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
HEX
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$5.06
Operating CF: $1.17B
CapEx: -$106.45M
Shares: 209,118,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
TD
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
Last Dividend: $0.00
Stock Price: $55.09
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
HEX
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $309.09M
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Aug 3, 2026 5:16pm
Compares DOCU against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 5:30pm (20d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Revenue $2.1B $2.5B $2.8B $3.0B $3.2B
Cost of Revenue $466.5M $536.1M $572.6M $621.7M $663.1M
Gross Profit $1.6B $2.0B $2.2B $2.4B $2.6B
Operating Expenses $1.7B $2.1B $2.2B $2.2B $2.3B
Operating Income -$61.9M -$88.0M $31.6M $199.9M $298.6M
Net Income -$70.0M -$97.5M $74.0M $1.1B $309.1M
EBITDA $20.0M -$1.8M $126.7M $307.7M $414.7M
EPS $-0.36 $-0.49 $0.36 $5.23 $1.53
EPS (Diluted) $-0.36 $-0.49 $0.36 $5.08 $1.48
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 5:10pm (20d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Cash & Equivalents $509.1M $721.9M $797.1M $648.6M $602.4M
Total Current Assets $1.3B $1.6B $1.6B $1.5B $1.5B
Total Assets $2.5B $3.0B $3.0B $4.0B $4.2B
Current Liabilities $1.4B $2.2B $1.7B $1.8B $2.0B
Long-Term Debt
Total Liabilities $2.3B $2.4B $1.8B $2.0B $2.3B
Total Equity $275.5M $617.3M $1.1B $2.0B $1.9B
Retained Earnings -$1.4B -$1.6B -$1.7B -$1.3B -$1.9B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 5:30pm (20d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Operating Cash Flow $506.5M $506.8M $979.5M $1.0B $1.2B
Capital Expenditure -$61.4M -$77.7M -$92.4M -$97.0M -$106.4M
Free Cash Flow $445.1M $429.1M $887.1M $920.3M $1.1B
Acquisitions (net) -$6.4M $0 $0 -$143.6M $0
Net Debt Issued / (Repaid)
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks $0 -$63.0M -$145.5M -$683.5M -$869.1M
Net Change in Cash -$56.7M $213.5M $78.3M -$141.9M -$41.4M
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 5:30pm (20d ago)
Metric 2023 2024 2025 2026
Revenue Growth +19.4% +9.8% +7.8% +8.2%
Gross Profit Growth +20.7% +10.6% +7.6% +8.5%
Operating Income Growth -42.3% +135.9% +532.0% +49.3%
Net Income Growth -39.3% +175.9% +1,343.5% -71.1%
EBITDA Growth -108.9% +7,233.8% +142.9% +34.7%
0Company Classification 1Industry Landscape 2Company Momentum 3Forward Projection 4aDCF Valuation 4bEarnings Power Value 4cAnchored PE 4dReverse DCF 4eRevenue-Based DCF 4fAnchored P/S 4gScenario Analysis 4hDividend Discount Model 4iBook Value Analysis 4jInsider Activity 4fCash Flow Quality 4gDebt Maturity Risk 4hMacro Environment 4iSector Intelligence 4jRevenue Confidence 4kSensitivity Analysis 4lSector Demand Cycle 5AI Investigation 5bThesis Evaluation 6Valuation Synthesis
computed not applicable 18 computed · 6 not applicable
Risk : Reward — if the last quarter repeats
Live · as of 2026-08-19 08:48
0.3 : 1 recovery upside vs repeat-quarter downside
Recovery pays +16%; another quarter like the worst recent one costs 62%. Ratio 0.3:1.
CaseGrowthMarginFair valuevs price ($55.09)
Bull — recovery +13% 28.8% $63.73 +16%
Base — stabilizes +8% 25.1% $48.67 -12%
Bear — keeps slipping +4% 21.3% $36.30 -34%
Stress — last quarter repeats +9% 10.0% $20.82 -62%
The next quarters keep the trajectory of the worst recent matched quarter (ending 2025-07-31) — growth stays at 8.8% and margins bend by the same profit-vs-revenue ratio (×1.04). Stress is a trajectory, not a prediction — it answers "what if the ship's current heading simply continues," which history says is the case to respect.
Why this is appearing: this company files quarterly, so its recent trajectory could be measured rather than assumed — the engine matched Apr 2026 against the same quarter one year earlier and found revenue +8.7% · operating income +84.7% · net income +8.5% year-over-year. That measured heading is what the stress case extends forward. Of those, the stress case extends the worst matched quarter — the one ending Jul 31, 2025 (revenue +8.8%, operating income +12.8% YoY) — not the average. Data measured through Apr 30, 2026 — this card recalculates automatically when the next quarterly filing is ingested. Companies without quarterly filings (many foreign listings) never show this card: with no measured trajectory, there is nothing honest to repeat.
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for DOCU — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
Independent analyst synthesis · claude-opus-4-7 · generated 2026-08-03 17:29:45
Verdict Modestly undervalued on FCF (~10x, $1.06B FCF, zero debt) — fair value $65–70; starter position at $55, but the Apr-26 sequential dip means size stays small until Q2 confirms trend.

The raw trajectory tells a coherent story: revenue climbed from $736M (Jul-24) to $830M (Apr-26), a 12.8% cumulative gain over seven quarters — call it ~7% annualized, decelerating from the 8.2% YoY print. More telling is the sequential pattern: $836.9M in Jan-26 slipped to $830.2M in Apr-26. That's the first sequential decline in the visible series and it deserves more weight than the models give it. Net margins are stable in a 7.9–10.8% band ex the $888M Jul-24 tax-benefit distortion (which mechanically inflates the 104% earnings CAGR and the trailing PE math — the real earnings power is ~$315M/yr, not the reported figure). At $10.5B market cap against $1.06B FCF, DOCU trades at ~10x FCF, which is emphatically not "37x PE" territory. The synthesis leaning on PE is analytically lazy here.

On that FCF multiple, the bear case has to work harder than the market-forces model suggests. 10x FCF for a business with 79% gross margins, zero debt, $602M cash, 20% ROIC, and mid-single-digit growth is cheap even if you believe Microsoft/Adobe commoditize e-signature over five years. The DCF-anchored "fair value $53–59" range implicitly assumes FCF stagnates or declines — reasonable as a bear scenario, aggressive as a base case given FCF grew 9.2% CAGR. Where I part with the bullish read: the Apr-26 sequential softness, the decelerating quarterly trend flagged in revenue confidence, and the insider activity which is 100% awards (grants, not open-market buys) — that's not "neutral," it's the absence of a signal that would matter, and dilution from those grants is real at ~750K shares in a single day.

The models contradict each other in ways worth naming. Pre-flight says "market wants evidence CLM offsets eSignature deceleration"; market-forces flags "existential risk from Microsoft commoditization"; narrative layer calls it a "steady compounder" priced at fair value. These can't all be right. If Microsoft/Copilot genuinely commoditizes e-signature over 2–3 years, 10x FCF is a value trap and fair value is $35–40. If DocuSign's IAM/CLM platform pivot gets any traction, this is a $75–85 stock on multiple expansion alone (15x FCF with flat growth). The synthesis verdict of $59 splits the difference without committing to which world we're in — a cop-out. A contrarian would note that every mature SaaS name that survived the 2022–23 rerate and now generates $1B+ FCF has eventually been either acquired (think Splunk at 7x sales) or rerated; DOCU at 3.1x EV/revenue and $10B cap is squarely in strategic-acquirer range for Adobe, Salesforce, or PE.

I dissent modestly from the "fair value" synthesis and lean undervalued, but with lower conviction than a table-pound. The FCF yield (~10%) provides real downside protection that the PE-anchored models understate; the sequential Q1-26 dip and structural AI-disruption risk cap the upside case. Fair value on my read is $65–70 — 12–13x FCF, still a discount to mature software peers — implying ~20% upside from $55. That's a starter-position setup, not a back-up-the-truck. The catalyst path is either (a) two more quarters proving Apr-26 was noise not trend, (b) a credible CLM/IAM growth number breaking out in the next print, or (c) strategic interest surfacing. If Q2-26 shows another sequential decline and IAM commentary stays vague, my $65 anchor drops to $50 fast. The models' "fair value / neutral" verdicts are defensible but under-weight the FCF multiple and over-weight the reported PE.

GPT Reading
Independent reading · gpt-5.4 · generated 2026-08-03 17:30:02
Verdict Undervalued at $55 — not a growth darling, but a debt-free SaaS franchise generating $1.06B of FCF should be worth closer to $62-65 unless revenue growth breaks below the high-single-digit range.

What jumps out is that DocuSign is no longer a growth story in the way software investors usually mean it, but it is a very real cash machine. Revenue went from $2.11B in FY2022 to $3.22B in FY2026, a decent 11%-ish annualized climb over four years, but the more important point is the recent shape: quarterly revenue has moved from $736.0M in July 2024 to $836.9M in January 2026, then slipped seasonally to $830.2M in April 2026. That is steady, not exciting, and the year-over-year growth in the latest quarter is 8.7% against $763.7M. Against that muted top-line backdrop, profitability has improved materially: operating income reached $298.6M in FY2026 versus just $31.6M in FY2024, and net income excluding the obvious one-off distortion in FY2025 is now running around a 9-11% quarterly margin. Gross margin near 79% and free cash flow of $1.06B on $3.22B of revenue imply a remarkable 33% FCF margin. For a company with no debt and $602M cash, that matters more than the lack of hypergrowth.

The market cap of $10.52B values that business at about 3.3x trailing revenue and just under 10x trailing free cash flow, using the annual cash flow provided. That is not a demanding multiple for a sticky software asset with 79% gross margins, positive ROIC of 20.2%, and demonstrated ability to expand earnings while still growing high single digits. The reported PE of 37x looks scarier than the business really is because GAAP earnings are depressed relative to cash generation and because the FY2025 net income number of $1.07B is clearly unusable as a run-rate anchor given the absurd $888.2M quarterly profit in July 2024. If I normalize this on FY2026 operating profit of $298.6M or the recent quarterly net income cadence of roughly $315M annualized, the stock is not obviously cheap on earnings, but it is cheap enough on enterprise value to revenue and especially on free cash flow to argue that the market is pricing DocuSign like a slowly melting asset. The raw numbers do not show melt; they show a mature category leader that has found margin discipline.

What keeps me from being more aggressive is that the revenue line is telling a plain story: this is an 8% grower until proven otherwise. Sequentially, the business is flattening around the low-$800M quarterly range rather than compounding rapidly, and software names with this growth profile usually need either stronger operating leverage or a clearer platform second act to earn a much higher multiple. The current ratio of 0.73 is also a reminder that this is not a fortress on every metric, even if debt is zero. And while insider activity here is just award grants rather than meaningful open-market buying or selling, the absence of purchases means insiders are not signaling obvious undervaluation. If the core e-signature product is drifting toward utility status, then 3.1x EV/revenue and 23.9x EV/EBITDA could be fair rather than cheap.

The best bear case is straightforward and respectable: DocuSign may be near its steady-state economics, not at the start of a new compounding phase. Revenue growth has decelerated from the pandemic era to high single digits, recent quarterly net income actually dipped from $90.3M in January 2026 to $78.2M in April 2026, and the company trades at 37x annual earnings for a business with sub-10% growth. If competitive pressure from broader workflow suites compresses pricing even modestly, the market could decide this deserves more like 2.5x sales or 20-25x normalized earnings, which would put the stock below $50. I weigh that risk less heavily because the cash flow statement says customers are still paying, the margin structure says the product still has value, and debt-free balance sheet optionality reduces downside severity. Mature software with $1B+ FCF and no leverage usually does not stay permanently mispriced at ~10x FCF unless deterioration becomes visible in bookings and retention, neither of which is evidenced here.

What would change my mind is not a story about AI or contract lifecycle management; it is numbers. If quarterly revenue falls below roughly $820M without seasonality explaining it, or if year-over-year growth slips to 5% or less while quarterly net margin drops back toward 6-7%, then I would read the current valuation as a value trap. Conversely, if DocuSign can print two or three quarters of reacceleration toward 10-12% revenue growth while sustaining $250M+ annualized operating income expansion and preserving a 30%+ FCF margin, then the stock deserves a rerating toward at least 4x sales, which supports a share price in the low-to-mid $60s. At $55, I think the market is still under-crediting the durability of the cash engine.

Grok Reading
Independent reading · grok-4.5 · generated 2026-08-03 17:30:50
Verdict Modestly undervalued cash compounder at $55 — 10% FCF yield on $1.06B supports $65–70 fair value if 8% growth holds

The numbers that dominate this tape are free cash flow and the valuation disconnect around it. DocuSign generated $1.06B of FCF on $3.22B of revenue in FY2026 — a 33% FCF margin — with operating cash flow of $1.17B and only $106M of capex. That is elite cash conversion for any software business, let alone one trading at 3.08x EV/revenue and a 10% FCF yield on the $10.52B market cap. Annual revenue has compounded from $2.11B to $3.22B over four years, settling into a steady 8% CAGR with recent quarterly prints of $800.6M, $818.4M, $836.9M and $830.2M; the latest quarter is essentially flat sequentially and up roughly 8–9% year-on-year. Gross margin holds at 79.4%, operating margin has expanded to 9.3% from losses three years ago, and the balance sheet carries zero debt against $602M cash. The PE of 37x is a distorted artifact of the noisy earnings path (the $1.07B NI in FY2025 and the $888M quarterly spike in mid-2024 were clearly one-time inflated); cash earnings tell the real story. This is a mature, high-quality cash compounder that the market is still pricing like a faded growth story rather than a durable mid-teens ROIC business throwing off a billion dollars a year.

What stands out against the prior models is how cheap the enterprise multiple looks once you normalize for FCF quality. At 3.6x sales and 23.9x EV/EBITDA with no leverage, the stock sits well below typical profitable SaaS comps that grow at similar rates. The sequential revenue stutter in the April quarter and the “decelerating” tag are real, but they do not erase the fact that absolute dollar growth is still adding roughly $250M of revenue per year while FCF continues to scale. ROE of 16% and ROIC of 20% confirm capital is being deployed productively. Insider activity is pure equity awards — noise, not signal. The current ratio of 0.73 looks ugly until you remember deferred revenue is the culprit in subscription businesses; solvency is not the issue.

The strongest case against this read is straightforward: growth has structurally rolled over from the pandemic spike and shows no clear reacceleration path, so 37x earnings and even 10x FCF may still be too rich if the top line drifts toward 5% and Microsoft or Adobe further commoditize core e-signature. Recent revenue YoY of 8.2% and a flat-to-down sequential quarter support the skeptic view that CLM and broader IAM have not yet offset maturation of the signature franchise. Earnings CAGR looks spectacular only because of the trough-to-peak swing from losses; trailing twelve-month net income power is closer to $300M, and the FY2025 NI figure is not repeatable. Macro headwinds and “below sector benchmarks” secondary signals reinforce that this can easily re-rate lower toward 2.5x sales if growth disappoints another two quarters. I weigh this less heavily because the FCF yield already embeds a no-growth-to-low-growth outcome and still leaves a wide margin of safety; a 33% FCF margin business with zero debt does not need 15% growth to justify $55.

I would flip to a more cautious or outright fair-value stance if the next two quarters show revenue growth sustaining below 6% with FCF margins compressing under 28%, or if management signals material pricing pressure from platform competitors. Conversely, a print above 10% revenue growth with stable 30%+ FCF margins would push me to higher conviction undervalued.

Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Each AI above independently stated a direction (undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued) and how strongly it believes it (conviction, 0–5). We combine those into a Bull-Bear Index on a 0–10 scale: 5 is neutral, 10 is maximum bullish (undervalued at full conviction), 0 is maximum bearish. We compute the score ourselves with the same arithmetic for every seat — the models never grade their own bullishness — so the three are directly comparable. Δ shows how far each seat sits from the panel average of 8.3; a large Δ marks the dissenting voice, usually the one worth reading.
Claude claude-opus-4-7 8.0
undervalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ -0.3 vs panel · self: 6.0
GPT gpt-5.4 9.0
undervalued · conviction 4/5 · Δ +0.7 vs panel · self: 7.0
Grok grok-4.5 8.0
undervalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ -0.3 vs panel · self: 6.0
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-08-03 18:09:19
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality - starter position, save ammo for mid-$40s 6/10
DOCU is a genuinely healed business (+75 quality) trading at fair value (-29), so this is a watch-and-nibble, not a table-pounder.
The cruxWhether high-single-digit revenue growth holds - if it does, the $1B+ FCF run-rate justifies $60s; if it slips toward the EPV floor, the multiple compresses fast.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from DOCU's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionStable Share Count
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The four lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+75
Strong
edge √Σ 170 · risk √Σ 72 · conf 7/10

The trajectory is unambiguous: revenue has scaled from $2.11B (FY22) to $3.22B (FY26) at a mid-teens then high-single-digit pace, while operating margin has swung from -2.9% to +9.3% and FCF has more than doubled to $1.06B. Gross margin sits at ~79% and is stable, which is characteristic of a durable SaaS gross-profit engine. OCF/NI of 1.1x, accruals at -18.4% of assets, and a Beneish M of -3.26 all point to clean earnings; the FY25 net income of $1.07B is inflated by a deferred tax benefit (FCF only $920M then $1.06B is the truer run-rate), but this is a quality-of-earnings nuance, not a manipulation flag. Balance sheet is self-funding: $602M cash, no net debt, and $1.06B in annual FCF means external capital is not needed. Dilution is well-contained: diluted share count went 196.7M to 210.3M over four years (~1.6% CAGR) and actually ticked down from 210.3M to 209.1M in the latest year, suggesting buybacks are now offsetting SBC - a meaningful discipline shift for a former growth-at-any-cost name. Altman Z of 2.95 (grey) is the one mildly soft mechanical read, reflecting an asset-light model rather than distress. What keeps this from a top-tier grade is the durability question the numbers cannot answer: revenue growth has decelerated from ~19% to ~7-8%, and the core e-signature market faces credible competitive pressure (Adobe, Dropbox Sign, native platform features). Insider activity is all sell-side (9 sales, 0 buys) though modest in size and consistent with routine post-award liquidation.

Strengths 6
m82
Operating leverage finally showing
Op margin went from -2.9% (FY22) to +9.3% (FY26) on revenue growing from $2.11B to $3.22B - real, sustained leverage, not a one-year blip.
m80
FCF generation is elite
$1.06B FCF on $3.22B revenue = ~33% FCF margin. FCF has grown every year and now exceeds reported net income on a normalized basis.
m70
Clean earnings quality
OCF/NI 1.1x, accruals -18.4% of assets, Beneish M -3.26 - no aggressive-accounting signature. FY25 NI of $1.07B is tax-benefit-boosted but cash generation confirms real profitability.
m65
Dilution now controlled
Share count 196.7M to 210.3M over 4 years (1.6% CAGR) and declined slightly to 209.1M in FY26 - buybacks now offsetting SBC, unusual discipline for a software company its age.
m60
Self-funding balance sheet
$602M cash, zero net debt, $1.06B annual FCF - no dependence on capital markets.
m55
Durable gross margins
GM% held tight in 77.9-79.4% range across four years - reflects real SaaS economics with no pricing erosion visible.
Concerns 3
m55
Growth deceleration
Revenue growth pattern: ~19% to ~10% to ~8% to ~8%. This is a mature-earner reality but raises durability questions given competitive intensity in e-signature.
m35
Insider tape one-sided
9 sales totaling ~$3.4M and 0 open-market buys over 12 months; modest in dollar size and post-award-typical, but no insider is stepping up to buy.
m30
Moat is data-implied, not proven
The financials suggest stickiness (79% GM, expanding margins) but the raw data cannot confirm switching costs or net revenue retention - competitive threats from Adobe/native platform features are real.
This is a genuinely healthy business now, and the transformation is visible in the numbers - a company that lost $70-97M and burned goodwill in FY22-23 is now printing $1B+ of FCF with expanding margins and a slightly shrinking share count. The earnings-quality checks are clean, the balance sheet is unencumbered, and management has shown real discipline on dilution. What I cannot get comfortable enough on to grade higher is durability: 8% growth in a category with well-funded competitors and platform-native alternatives means the moat has to be proven quarter by quarter, and I do not have retention/concentration data to confirm it. Solid, well-run, cash-generative business - not yet a fortress.
Verify before trusting this (6)
  • Net revenue retention / dollar-based retention rate in 10-K to confirm stickiness
  • SBC as a percent of revenue and buyback authorization/execution to confirm dilution discipline is structural
  • Customer concentration and enterprise vs SMB mix
  • Nature and durability of the FY25 deferred tax benefit that inflated GAAP net income to $1.07B
  • IAM (Intelligent Agreement Management) product traction as evidence of platform expansion beyond e-signature
  • Competitive positioning vs Adobe Sign and native platform e-signature offerings
Valuation / Mispricing
-29
Fairly Valued
edge √Σ 47 · risk √Σ 77 · conf 7/10
Price $55.09 vs composite deserved ~$53 and signal-adjusted ~$59 - roughly 4-7% either side, essentially fair. attractive below $44.00

The e2e composite fair value of $53.25 sits within 4% of the $55.09 price, and the signal-adjusted $59 implies just ~7% upside - that is textbook fairly valued, not a mispricing. The method spread is wide and instructive: DCF at $87 assumes the FCF ramp extrapolates, EPV floor at $11 says the steady-state earnings power alone justifies almost nothing, and the anchored P/E at $27 suggests peers/history would price this materially lower. Averaging these honestly, the market is paying for the transition already visible in the $1B+ FCF but not for heroic reacceleration.

Cheap signals 2
m40
DCF supports $87 if FCF trajectory holds
The DCF at $87 (58% above price) reflects the $1B+ FCF run-rate and disciplined share count - if growth stabilizes even mid-single digits, this method is credible and price is undervalued.
m25
High earnings quality means no haircut needed
Earnings-quality score of 2 (High) means the FCF is real - no accrual games or SBC-masking - so the deserved value does not get marked down for accounting risk.
Rich / priced-in 3
m55
EPV floor implies almost no steady-state value
EPV of $11.23 vs $55 price says ~80% of the market cap is riding on growth/margin expansion continuing - if the core e-sign business commoditizes, the downside floor is severe.
m45
Anchored P/E at $26.78 well below price
A peer/history-anchored multiple prices DOCU at less than half current levels, suggesting the market is already granting a premium multiple for the FCF pivot.
m30
Composite FV essentially equals price
Composite $53.25 vs $55.09 = ~3% overvalued; signal-adjusted $59 = ~7% undervalued. The band brackets the price - no gap to exploit.
This is fair. Composite $53, price $55, signal-adjusted $59 - I am being asked to pay roughly what the business is worth on a blended view, and the wide method spread ($11 to $87) tells me the range of outcomes is genuinely uncertain. The quality is real but the market knows it. I want a ~20% discount to composite - call it mid-$40s - before I get interested, or I need to see billings reaccelerate to chase it here. Otherwise this is a watch, not a buy.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Billings and net dollar retention trajectory in next print - is growth stabilizing above 8% or drifting toward mid-single digits
  • IAM (Intelligent Agreement Management) attach and revenue contribution - the reacceleration lever
  • SBC as % of revenue and buyback pace vs dilution - the FCF-to-shareholder bridge
  • Competitive commentary on Microsoft/Adobe pricing pressure in enterprise renewals
General Sentiment
-9
Balanced
tail √Σ 44 · head √Σ 52 · conf 6/10

The market regime is mildly constructive (score +22, VIX 16, S&P barely off highs) and DOCU's 0.9 beta means the tape neither helps nor hurts much. There is no dominant story here - narrative intensity is explicitly minimal and cult coefficient is low, so the stock is not being pushed by momentum traders, meme flow, or a thematic bid. That is unusual for a former pandemic darling and it matters: the absence of narrative IS the sentiment condition. Fundamentals-wise the market is pricing steady cash generation, not an inflection, which caps upside enthusiasm but also removes the bear catalyst. Macro cross-currents are mixed but muted for this name. Rates at 4.68% and market PE 26.9 are a generic headwind for software multiples, but DOCU already trades near DCF fair value and isn't a long-duration story stock, so the rate sensitivity is dampened. Momentum readings are quietly positive (8% CAGR, 3yr acceleration, low vol) which is a mild tailwind that gets zero airtime because no analyst or narrative is amplifying it. Net: a stock the market has largely stopped arguing about, drifting on its own operating results rather than being pushed by external pressure.

Tailwinds 3
m30
Quiet positive momentum tape
Score +2 momentum with low revenue-growth volatility gives the stock a stable technical footing. In a neutral market this passively supports the price even without narrative amplification.
m25
Low-beta shelter in a mixed macro
Beta 0.9 plus no story-stock premium means rate wobbles and VIX ticks hit DOCU less than the high-multiple SaaS cohort. It is a defensive posture within software right now.
m20
Absence of active bear narrative
Narrative intensity is minimal - no short thesis is being loudly prosecuted, no downgrade cycle is running. The stock is being left alone, which for a de-rated name is a mild positive.
Headwinds 3
m35
Faded pandemic-darling stigma
The lingering 'peaked in 2021' framing keeps generalist buyers away and caps multiple expansion even when results are fine. It is not actively selling the stock but it suppresses the marginal bid.
m30
Big-tech competitive overhang
Microsoft and Adobe encroachment is a recurring bear talking point that dampens enthusiasm anytime DOCU tries to build a growth narrative. Chronic, low-grade pressure rather than an acute threat.
m25
Generic software multiple pressure
10y at 4.68% and market PE 26.9 create a persistent light headwind on all software names. Muted here because DOCU is not priced as a growth story, but still present.
My honest read: this is one of those rare cases where sentiment is genuinely balanced because the market has stopped caring. There is no thematic bid pulling it up and no active narrative pushing it down - just a low-beta, ex-darling drifting on its own numbers in a neutral tape. Slight lean to headwind from the residual pandemic-peak stigma and Microsoft/Adobe overhang, offset by quiet positive momentum and defensive beta. Call it Balanced with the pressure light in either direction - the next narrative shift, in or out, will matter more than the current one.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Any Microsoft or Adobe product announcement that could re-ignite the commoditization bear story
  • Analyst target revisions or downgrades that would signal sell-side tone breaking
  • Whether IVES / AI-agreement narrative gains traction and pulls DOCU into a thematic bid
  • Next earnings reaction - a beat could awaken a dormant compounder story, a miss revives the 'maturing' bear
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
Growth Outlook
not run

This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.

The forward growth verdict — is the business itself likely to grow (next 2 quarters / year 1 / years 2–3), judged against its category and against printed expectations. The full horizon ladder + creme renders on the Growth Outlook card above. Not a call on the price (Valuation owns that) or the tape (Sentiment owns that).
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Lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure), and Growth Outlook (the forward growth verdict). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Price Prediction
Higher +14.3% v0.6.0 View full prediction →

When we made this prediction on Aug 4, 2026, DOCU was $55.13. We expect it to be $63.00 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $44.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 4, 2026.

Price when predicted$55.13
Our estimate for Feb 2027$63.00+14.3%
Great value below$44.00
Price history shown (6 Months)

Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.

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My Notes personal — only you see this
v1.1.562 · 9b2927c4 · 2026-08-22 16:52:06