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AGING Analysis Report
Jun 7, 2026
19 days ago · 100% complete

Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V.

KOF NYSE Categories PDF
Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Non-Alcoholic
Mexico City, DF 05348, Mexico IPO 1993 coca-colafemsa.com Updated Jun 7, 1:55pm
Price
$106.47
Market Cap
$22.4B
Employees
118,683
Beta
0.53
Avg Volume
154,987
CEO
Ian Marcel Craig García
Business Description

Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V., a franchise bottler, produces, markets, sells, and distributes Coca-Cola trademark beverages. The company offers sparkling beverages, including colas and flavored sparkling beverages; and waters and other beverages, such as juice drinks, coffee, teas, milk, value-added dairy products, sports and energy drinks, and plant-based drinks. It provides a portfolio of products through retail outlets, such as wholesale supermarkets, discount stores, and convenience stores; retailers, such as restaurants and bars, as well as stadiums, auditoriums, and theaters; points-of-sale outlets; and home delivery, supermarkets, and other locations. In addition, the company distributes and sells Heineken beer products in its Brazilian territories. It operates in Mexico, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay. The company was founded in 1979 and is headquartered in Mexico City, Mexico. Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. is a subsidiary of Fomento Economico Mexicano, S.A.B. de C.V.

Business History
Generated: Jun 7, 2026 5:14pm
Price Overview
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:12pm (19d ago)
$106.47
-0.33 (-0.31%)
Day Range
$105.67 – $107.35
52-Week Range
$80.22 – $116.36
50-Day MA
$103.13
200-Day MA
$95.83
Volume
97,099.00
Analyst Price Targets
Low $111.00
Consensus $116.67
High $124.00
(11 analysts)
Share Structure
Outstanding 210,083,226.00
Float 210,082,176.00
Free Float 100.0%
High free float — 100.0% of shares trade freely, ~0% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:18pm (19d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:18pm (19d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
API Direct from provider CALC Derived from statements
Industry comparison last run: Jun 7, 2026 5:13pm
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
API
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
16.86
Stock Price: $106.47
EPS (Diluted): 142.00
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
API
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
0.25
Stock Price: $106.47
Total Equity: $146.20B
Shares: 21,008,300
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
API
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
0.99
Market Cap: $22.37B
Total Debt: $79.78B
Cash: $28.07B
EBITDA: $56.07B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
API
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$90.4B
Market Cap: $22.37B
Total Debt: $79.78B
Cash: $28.07B
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
API
Gross Profit / Revenue
45.6%
Gross Profit: $133.18B
Revenue: $291.75B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
API
Operating Income / Revenue
13.9%
Operating Income: $40.62B
Revenue: $291.75B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
API
Net Income / Revenue
8.2%
Net Income: $23.85B
Revenue: $291.75B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
API
Net Income / Total Equity
16.4%
Net Income: $23.85B
Total Equity: $146.20B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
API
NOPAT / Invested Capital
10.4%
Operating Income: $40.62B
Tax Rate: 33.6%
Equity: $146.20B
Total Debt: $79.78B
Cash: $28.07B
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
API
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
1.12
Current Assets: $74.57B
Current Liabilities: $66.76B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
CALC
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.55
Short-Term Debt: $7.94B
Long-Term Debt: $71.83B
Total Debt: $79.78B
Total Equity: $146.20B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
CALC
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$13,887.18
Revenue: $291.75B
Shares: 21,008,300
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
CALC
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$6,959.20
Total Equity: $146.20B
Shares: 21,008,300
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
CALC
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$272.23
Operating CF: $26.04B
CapEx: -$20.32B
Shares: 21,008,300
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
API
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
41.2%
Last Dividend: N/A
Stock Price: $106.47
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $23.85B
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Jun 7, 2026 5:13pm
Compares KOF against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Deep Analysis
Last run: Jun 7, 2026 5:17:49 pm

Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.

0 Company Classification — What type of company is this?
1 Industry Landscape — Where is the industry headed?
2 Company Momentum — Where is this company trending?
3 Forward Projection — 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a DCF Valuation — Present value of future cash flows
4b Earnings Power Value — Floor value — worth with zero growth
4c Anchored PE — Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
4d Reverse DCF — What growth is the market pricing in?
4e Revenue-Based DCF — For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4f Anchored P/S — Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4g Scenario Analysis — Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4h Dividend Discount Model — For dividend/income stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4i Book Value Analysis — For deep value / turnaround stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4j Insider Activity — Are insiders buying or selling?
4f Cash Flow Quality — How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g Debt Maturity Risk — Can it handle its debt?
4h Macro Environment — Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i Sector Intelligence — How does this company compare within its sector?
4j Revenue Confidence — How reliable is the growth projection?
4k Sensitivity Analysis — How fragile is the fair value estimate?
4l Sector Demand Cycle — Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5 AI Investigation — Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b Thesis Evaluation — What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
6 Valuation Synthesis — Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:18pm (19d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $194.8B $226.7B $245.1B $279.8B $291.7B
Cost of Revenue $106.2B $126.4B $134.2B $151.1B $158.6B
Gross Profit $88.6B $100.3B $110.9B $128.7B $133.2B
Operating Expenses $61.1B $69.7B $76.5B $89.0B $92.6B
Operating Income $27.5B $30.6B $34.3B $39.7B $40.6B
Net Income $15.7B $19.0B $19.5B $23.7B $23.8B
EBITDA $37.3B $40.4B $43.8B $52.8B $56.1B
EPS $74.80 $90.60 $93.00 $113.00 $142.00
EPS (Diluted)
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:12pm (19d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $47.2B $40.3B $31.1B $32.8B $28.1B
Total Current Assets $80.4B $79.2B $67.7B $75.1B $74.6B
Total Assets $271.6B $278.0B $273.5B $308.0B $314.5B
Current Liabilities $46.2B $58.0B $54.9B $67.2B $66.8B
Long-Term Debt $83.3B $70.1B $66.7B $71.9B $71.8B
Total Liabilities $144.0B $146.1B $139.8B $157.4B $160.5B
Total Equity $121.6B $125.4B $127.0B $143.4B $146.2B
Retained Earnings $81.0B $88.7B $96.0B $107.0B $115.5B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:18pm (19d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $32.7B $35.5B $42.3B $42.4B $26.0B
Capital Expenditure -$10.0B -$17.7B -$20.6B -$25.8B -$20.3B
Free Cash Flow $22.7B $17.8B $21.7B $16.7B $5.7B
Acquisitions (net) $0 -$2.4B -$1.3B -$751.0M $0
Debt Repayment
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Net Change in Cash $3.8B -$7.0B -$9.2B $1.7B -$579.9M
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:12pm (19d ago)
Metric 2027 2028 2029 2030
Revenue $342.4B
$332.6B – $352.1B
$365.6B
$356.6B – $376.9B
$402.0B
$392.1B – $414.5B
$433.5B
$422.8B – $447.0B
EBITDA $67.8B
$65.8B – $69.7B
$72.4B
$70.6B – $74.6B
$79.6B
$77.6B – $82.0B
$85.8B
$83.7B – $88.5B
Net Income $2.9B
$2.7B – $3.1B
$3.2B
$3.0B – $3.5B
$3.6B
$3.5B – $3.7B
$3.9B
$3.8B – $4.1B
EPS
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:18pm (19d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +16.4% +8.1% +14.2% +4.3%
Gross Profit Growth +13.2% +10.5% +16.1% +3.4%
Operating Income Growth +11.5% +12.1% +15.7% +2.2%
Net Income Growth +21.2% +2.6% +21.5% +0.5%
EBITDA Growth +8.3% +8.3% +20.6% +6.1%
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:17pm (19d ago)
Type codes PPurchase SSale AAward / grant MOption exercise FIn-kind (tax) CConversion GGift DReturn to issuer
All SEC Form 4 codes
Open market
P Purchase
Open-market or private purchase of shares.
S Sale
Open-market or private sale of shares.
Compensation (Rule 16b-3)
A Award / grant
Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
D Return to issuer
Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
F In-kind (tax)
Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
I Discretionary
Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
M Option exercise
Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
Derivatives
C Conversion
Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
E Short expiration
Expiration of a short derivative position.
H Long expiration
Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
O OTM exercise
Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
X ITM exercise
Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
Other exempt
G Gift
Bona fide gift of securities.
L Small acquisition
Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
W Inheritance
Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
Z Voting trust
Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
Other
J Other
Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
K Equity swap
Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
U Tender / buyout
Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.

Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.

Date Insider Type Shares Price Value
2026-05-27 Cutrale Jose Luis 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-22 Nicolau Gutierrez Luis Alfonso 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-18 Kim LeRoy 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-18 Cutrale Jose Henrique 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-18 Harris Mark D 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-18 Lopes Amaral Westin Pereira Camila 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-18 Craig Ian M. 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-18 Craig Ian M. 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-18 Reuben Hatounian Catherine Nicole 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-18 Reuben Hatounian Catherine Nicole 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-18 Coindreau Montemayor Gabriel 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-18 Diaz-Caneja Guillen Antonio 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-18 Diaz-Caneja Guillen Antonio 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-18 Pereyra Mendez Eduardo 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-18 Fernandes Vieira de Oliveira Thiago 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-18 Ponce Garcia Washington Fabricio 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-18 Ponce Garcia Washington Fabricio 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-18 Bertelloni Nicolas 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-18 Ocejo Zubizarreta Aitor 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-18 Fernandez Carbajal Jose Antonio 0.00 $0.00 $0
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:12pm (19d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-04-20 $1.12 2026-04-07 2026-04-20 2026-05-01
2025-12-08 $1.01 2025-11-25 2025-12-08 2025-12-19
2025-10-14 $1.00 2025-10-03 2025-10-14 2025-10-27
2025-07-15 $0.98 2025-07-07 2025-07-15 2025-07-28
2025-04-22 $0.94 2025-04-09 2025-04-22 2025-05-05
2024-12-06 $0.69 2024-11-21 2024-12-06 2024-12-19
2024-10-11 $0.78 2024-10-02 2024-10-14 2024-10-25
2024-07-15 $0.83 2024-07-02 2024-07-15 2024-07-26
2024-04-12 $0.92 2024-04-03 2024-04-15 2024-04-26
2023-10-31 $1.59 2023-10-18 2023-11-01 2023-11-13
2023-05-01 $1.60 2023-04-18 2023-05-02 2023-05-15
2022-10-31 $1.25 2022-10-21 2022-11-01 2022-11-14
2022-04-29 $1.32 2022-04-19 2022-05-02 2022-05-13
2021-10-29 $1.21 2021-10-19 2021-11-01 2021-11-15
2021-04-30 $1.24 2021-04-20 2021-05-03 2021-05-14
2020-10-29 $1.13 2020-10-16 2020-10-30 2020-11-13
2020-05-01 $1.00 2020-04-21 2020-05-04 2020-05-15
2019-10-30 $0.89 2019-10-03 2019-10-31 2019-11-12
2019-05-03 $0.93 2019-05-06 2019-05-15
2018-10-30 $0.83 2018-10-19 2018-10-31 2018-11-13
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for KOF — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Delvantic AI Findings
Independent analyst synthesis · Delvantic - Cairn AI · generated 2026-06-07 17:18:28
Reviews the pipeline's own verdicts

The raw numbers tell a coherent story that the synthesis layer mangled badly. KOF posts MXN-denominated financials: 2025 annual revenue MXN 291.75B, NI MXN 23.85B, OCF MXN 26.04B. The market cap of $22.37B is USD. The "composite fair value $9,974" output is a unit-mismatch artifact — somebody DCF'd peso cash flows and compared to a dollar share price. Ignore it entirely. The P/B of 0.245 and P/S of 0.123 are the same artifact (peso book/sales vs dollar price per ADR which represents 10 local shares). The honest read: TTM P/E ~16.9x, ~4.1% dividend yield, EV/EBITDA in the high single digits once you fix the units — that is a normal, slightly cheap, EM bottler multiple, not a screaming bargain.

On the operating trajectory: annual revenue grew 17% (2022), 8.1% (2023), 14.2% (2024), 4.3% (2025) — clear deceleration, and the deceleration is consistent with what FEMSA has actually disclosed (Mexico volume softness, Argentina translation, weather). Operating margin held at ~13.9% and net margin at ~8.2% — no real margin compression once you net out FX, contradicting Market Forces' "inflation-masked margin compression" claim. Quarterly NI bounces between MXN 5.1–5.9B with a Q4 2024 outlier of MXN 7.28B; the Q4 2025 figure of $4.25B revenue / $409.8M NI is almost certainly a data row in USD while neighbors are in MXN — another unit problem the models swallowed. The FCF "CAGR -48.6%" is the one number worth taking seriously: FCF MXN 5.72B on OCF MXN 26.04B implies capex MXN 20.3B, ~7% of sales, which is elevated vs the historical 5-6%. That's the real bear case — capex intensity is consuming the cash that funds the dividend. Whether that's a structural reinvestment cycle (digital, cooler placement, Brazil capacity) or permanent FCF impairment is the actual debate.

The prior models are mostly useless here. Valuation Synthesis is broken (units). Market Forces invents "collapsing cash generation" and "dangerous EM leverage" with no leverage data shown — the balance sheet line is blank, so that's a hallucination. Thesis Evaluation cites "P/E of 0.7x" which is obviously the P/B artifact misread. The Narrative layer is the only output that actually engages with KOF as it exists: largest Coca-Cola bottler by volume, structural moat in Mexico/Brazil, anchored to fundamentals, durable franchise. The Pre-Flight thesis is also directionally right — market is pricing modest growth plus an EM risk premium, fair enough. The contrarian case worth airing: KOF's Mexico business is ~60% of volume and Mexico is staring at USMCA renegotiation risk, peso volatility, and a sugar-tax regime that keeps tightening; Brazil is competitive vs Ambev; and the capex step-up may not normalize if Coca-Cola Co. is pushing bottlers to fund more of the system's growth investment. A 4% yield with mid-single-digit organic growth and rising capex is not obviously cheap — it's appropriately priced.

Where I land: KOF at $106 on ~16.9x earnings, 4.1% yield, mid-single-digit revenue growth, stable mid-teens operating margins, and a fortress franchise position is a fair-value-to-slightly-cheap mature EM compounder — not the 100x undervalued absurdity the synthesis produced, and not the deteriorating disaster Market Forces described. The real risk is the capex/FCF compression: if 2026 FCF doesn't recover toward MXN 12-15B range, the dividend coverage thesis weakens and the multiple should compress. If it does recover, $115-125 is reasonable. I dissent from the synthesis "undervalued by 10,000%" verdict (unit error), dissent from Market Forces' "deteriorating quality" framing (unsupported), and partially agree with the Narrative layer's "anchored steady compounder" read. Insider data is unusable (all zero-share entries with no names). The balance sheet blanks are a real gap — without total debt I can't confirm the leverage profile, though KOF historically runs ~1.5-2

GPT Critique
Second-opinion review · gpt-4o · generated 2026-06-07 17:18:33
Reviews the Opus findings above
Verdict I agree with Opus that KOF is fairly valued at $106, with a cautious note on capex-driven FCF compression. However, I emphasize the potential risks from macroeconomic volatility more strongly than Opus.

Upon reviewing the raw data for Coca-Cola FEMSA, I'm struck by the company's robust revenue growth over the past few years, albeit with a notable deceleration from 14.2% in 2024 to 4.3% in 2025. The annual revenue of MXN 291.75B for 2025, with a net income of MXN 23.85B, suggests a relatively stable earnings profile, despite the recent deceleration. The quarterly financials indicate minor fluctuations, with Q4 2025 revenue and net income figures likely reflecting a currency mismatch, as Opus noted. The operating cash flow of MXN 26.04B and capex of MXN 20.32B result in a free cash flow of MXN 5.72B, highlighting a significant capex intensity that could constrain future dividend payouts. This aligns with the FCF decline of 48.6%, suggesting potential stress on cash generation capabilities.

I concur with Opus's dismissal of the flawed valuation synthesis, recognizing the unit mismatch between peso-denominated financials and dollar-denominated market cap. This artifact led to an erroneous undervaluation claim, which should be disregarded. Opus correctly identifies the company's TTM P/E of 16.9x and a 4.1% dividend yield, indicating a more conventional valuation for an emerging market bottler. I also agree with his refutation of the Market Forces' characterization of "collapsing cash generation" and "dangerous EM leverage," given the absence of leverage data and the relatively stable operating and net margins of around 13.9% and 8.2%, respectively.

However, I diverge from Opus's partial alignment with the narrative layer's "anchored steady compounder" depiction. While the fundamentals suggest stability, the increasing capex and decelerating revenue growth signal potential headwinds that could challenge the company's ability to maintain its dividend yield and growth trajectory. The narrative's minimal intensity may underestimate these risks, especially in light of potential macroeconomic instabilities in Latin America, including currency volatility and regulatory challenges in key markets like Mexico and Brazil.

A careful skeptic might argue that both my and Opus's analyses understate the risks associated with the company's capex-driven free cash flow compression and the broader geopolitical and economic uncertainties in its operating regions. They might also question the sustainability of current margin levels in the face of potential shifts in consumer preferences and competitive pressures.

Community AI Feedback
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My Notes personal — only you see this
Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · fmp
v1.1.352 · d1100787 · 2026-06-26 11:39:30