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AGING Analysis Report
Aug 28, 2026
25 days ago · 100% complete
For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page

What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Halliburton Company (HAL) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.

Our current read (analysis of 2026-09-22): Designation Low · Gem Score -23 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 4 · Value -41 · Sentiment -6 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $43.24 vs $35.49 at analysis

Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable reference-name attribute you can cite):

  • profile-header / price-overview — company profile, live quote, market cap
  • extended-analysisthe core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memo
  • future-predictions — our forward price-band predictions
  • market-narrative / ai-findings / gpt-critique — narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)
  • Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers): price-history, income-trend, key-metrics, financials (statement tables), insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.

More for machine readers: site briefing at /llms.txt · any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER · raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds); every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.

Halliburton Company

HAL NYSE
Energy · Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
Houston, TX 77032, United States halliburton.com Updated Aug 28, 1:30am
Price
$35.49
Market Cap
$29.6B
Employees
46,000
Beta
0.75
Avg Volume
11,859,560
Last Dividend
$0.68
CEO
Mr. Jeffrey Allen Miller CPA

Halliburton Company is a global oilfield services company that provides products and services for the energy industry. Its business is centered on supporting upstream oil and gas customers across the well lifecycle, from locating hydrocarbons and evaluating reservoirs to drilling, completing, and producing wells. The company operates through two main segments: Completion and Production, and Drilling and Evaluation. These segments include services such as cementing, stimulation, intervention, artificial lift, pressure control, drilling fluids, directional drilling, wireline, perforating, and digital subsurface solutions. Halliburton Company serves national oil companies, major integrated energy companies, and independent producers worldwide, making it an important supplier of technical expertise, field execution, and specialized equipment in the global energy market.

Runs with full report Generated: Aug 28, 2026 1:40am
Price Overview
Price at report time
$35.49
as of Aug 28, 1:30am (25d ago)
Change · Aug 28
+1.05 (+3.05%)
Day Range
$34.13 – $35.91
52-Week Range
$21.40 – $43.59
50-Day MA
$33.85
200-Day MA
$34.51
Volume
12,844,522.00
Right now · live
Log in to get the live feed
Members see the real-time price and the move since this report (over 25d).
Share Structure
Outstanding 834,000,000.00
Float 828,556,481.00
Free Float 99.3%
High free float — 99.3% of shares trade freely, ~0.7% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Aug 28, 2026 1:51am (25d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Aug 28, 2026 1:51am (25d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
TD Twelve Data statement HEX SEC filing
Industry comparison last run: Aug 28, 2026 1:39am
P/E · trailing (TTM) (Price per dollar of earnings over the past year — not a run-rate or forward P/E)
HEX
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
23.60
Stock Price: $35.49
EPS (Diluted): 1.50
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
HEX
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
2.88
Stock Price: $35.49
Total Equity: $10.51B
Shares: 853,000,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
HEX
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
10.37
Market Cap: $29.57B
Total Debt: $7.16B
Cash: $2.21B
EBITDA: $3.40B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
HEX
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$35.2B
Market Cap: $29.57B
Total Debt: $7.16B
Cash: $2.21B
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
HEX
Gross Profit / Revenue
Gross Profit: N/A
Revenue: $22.18B
Missing from API: Gross Profit
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
HEX
Operating Income / Revenue
10.2%
Operating Income: $2.26B
Revenue: $22.18B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
HEX
Net Income / Revenue
5.8%
Net Income: $1.28B
Revenue: $22.18B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
HEX
Net Income / Total Equity
12.2%
Net Income: $1.28B
Total Equity: $10.51B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
HEX
NOPAT / Invested Capital
10.7%
Operating Income: $2.26B
Tax Rate: 27.0%
Equity: $10.51B
Total Debt: $7.16B
Cash: $2.21B
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
HEX
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
2.04
Current Assets: $11.40B
Current Liabilities: $5.59B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
HEX
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.68
Short-Term Debt: $0.00
Long-Term Debt: $7.16B
Total Debt: $7.16B
Total Equity: $10.51B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
HEX
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$26.01
Revenue: $22.18B
Shares: 853,000,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
HEX
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$12.32
Total Equity: $10.51B
Shares: 853,000,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
HEX
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$1.96
Operating CF: $2.93B
CapEx: -$1.25B
Shares: 853,000,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
TD
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
1.9%
Last Dividend: $0.68
Stock Price: $35.49
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
HEX
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $1.28B
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Aug 28, 2026 1:38am
Compares HAL against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 28, 2026 1:51am (25d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $15.3B $20.3B $23.0B $22.9B $22.2B
Cost of Revenue
Gross Profit
Operating Expenses
Operating Income $1.8B $2.7B $4.1B $3.8B $2.3B
Net Income $1.5B $1.6B $2.6B $2.5B $1.3B
EBITDA $2.7B $3.6B $5.1B $4.9B $3.4B
EPS $1.63 $1.74 $2.93 $2.84 $1.50
EPS (Diluted) $1.63 $1.73 $2.92 $2.83 $1.50
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 28, 2026 1:30am (25d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $3.0B $2.3B $2.3B $2.6B $2.2B
Total Current Assets $9.9B $11.0B $11.5B $12.4B $11.4B
Total Assets $22.3B $23.3B $24.7B $25.6B $25.0B
Current Liabilities $4.3B $5.3B $5.6B $6.1B $5.6B
Long-Term Debt $9.1B $7.9B $7.6B $7.2B $7.2B
Total Liabilities $15.6B $15.3B $15.3B $15.0B $14.5B
Total Equity $6.7B $8.0B $9.4B $10.5B $10.5B
Retained Earnings $9.7B $10.6B $12.5B $14.3B $15.0B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 28, 2026 1:51am (25d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $1.9B $2.2B $3.5B $3.9B $2.9B
Capital Expenditure -$799.0M -$1.0B -$1.4B -$1.4B -$1.3B
Free Cash Flow $1.1B $1.2B $2.1B $2.4B $1.7B
Acquisitions (net) -$13.0M -$27.0M -$185.0M
Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) -$700.0M -$1.2B -$305.0M -$100.0M -$389.0M
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks $0 -$250.0M -$800.0M -$1.0B -$1.0B
Net Change in Cash $481.0M -$698.0M -$82.0M $354.0M -$412.0M
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 28, 2026 1:51am (25d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +32.7% +13.4% -0.3% -3.3%
Gross Profit Growth
Operating Income Growth +50.4% +50.8% -6.4% -40.9%
Net Income Growth +7.9% +67.8% -5.2% -48.7%
EBITDA Growth +34.9% +39.3% -3.5% -30.7%
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 28, 2026 1:30am (25d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-06-03 $0.17
2026-03-04 $0.17
2025-12-03 $0.17
2025-09-03 $0.17
2025-06-04 $0.17
2025-03-05 $0.17
2024-12-04 $0.17
2024-09-04 $0.17
2024-06-05 $0.17
2024-03-05 $0.17
2023-12-06 $0.16
2023-09-05 $0.16
2023-06-06 $0.16
2023-02-28 $0.16
2022-12-07 $0.12
2022-09-06 $0.12
2022-05-31 $0.12
2022-03-01 $0.12
2021-12-08 $0.05
2021-08-31 $0.05
0Company Classification 1Industry Landscape 2Company Momentum 3Forward Projection 4aDCF Valuation 4bEarnings Power Value 4cAnchored PE 4dReverse DCF 4eRevenue-Based DCF 4fAnchored P/S 4gScenario Analysis 4hDividend Discount Model 4iBook Value Analysis 4jInsider Activity 4fCash Flow Quality 4gDebt Maturity Risk 4hMacro Environment 4iSector Intelligence 4jRevenue Confidence 4kSensitivity Analysis 4lSector Demand Cycle 5AI Investigation 5bThesis Evaluation 6Valuation Synthesis
computed not applicable 18 computed · 6 not applicable
Risk : Reward — upside vs downside from this company's own quarters
Computed 2026-09-12 02:02
0.1 : 1 +1σ upside vs −1σ downside, from this company's own quarterly history
A +1σ run of quarters pays +9%; a −1σ run costs 78%. Ratio 0.1:1 (μ 0.9%, σ 17.4% floored by sector, 16 pairs).
Older method (repeat-worst-quarter): -0.4 : 1
CaseGrowthMarginFair valuevs price ($35.49)
Bull — recovery +1% 9.2% $25.89 -27%
Base — stabilizes +1% 8.0% $22.54 -36%
Bear — keeps slipping +0% 6.8% $19.26 -46%
Stress — last quarter repeats -2% 3.6% $10.49 -70%
Upside — a +1σ run of quarters (v2) +18% 7.9% $38.84 +9%
Stress — a −1σ run of quarters (v2) -16% 4.7% $7.91 -78%
The next quarters keep the trajectory of the worst recent matched quarter (ending 2025-09-30) — growth stays at -1.7% and margins bend by the same profit-vs-revenue ratio (×0.50). Stress is a trajectory, not a prediction — it answers "what if the ship's current heading simply continues," which history says is the case to respect.
Why this is appearing: this company files quarterly, so its recent trajectory could be measured rather than assumed — the engine matched Jun 2026, Mar 2026 against the same quarters one year earlier and found revenue +1.7% · operating income +25.8% · net income +47.2% year-over-year. That measured heading is what the stress case extends forward. Of those, the stress case extends the worst matched quarter — the one ending Sep 30, 2025 (revenue -1.7%, operating income -59.1% YoY) — not the average. Data measured through Jun 30, 2026 — this card recalculates automatically when the next quarterly filing is ingested. Companies without quarterly filings (many foreign listings) never show this card: with no measured trajectory, there is nothing honest to repeat.
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for HAL — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Growth Outlook
Analyzed 2026-08-28 02:01

The question every valuation on this page silently assumes: is this company likely to grow? Judged forward — the business, its category, the world — against what's already printed.

Holding Revenue has flattened (+1.7% matched-quarter YoY) against a category shrinking ~3%, with a sharp earnings-quality recovery off a depressed base — a stabilizing, share-holding business rather than a growth story or a structural melt. conf 6/10
Share gain Category shrinking · Category revenue is contracting (-2.4% CAGR, median recent growth -3.1%) with severe industry margin and earnings compression; HAL's most recent matched quarters show +1.7% revenue and rising operating income, roughly 5pts of revenue outperformance and clearly better earnings direction than the -47.5% industry earnings CAGR.
Next 2 quarters
Holding
Quarterly trend is 'steady' with low volatility; the cost base is now sized to current activity, so the next two prints most likely show roughly flat revenue with year-over-year earnings still up on easy comparisons. No visible catalyst — positive or negative — large enough to move revenue off flat within six months.
≈ inline with expectations
Year 1
Holding
Full-year revenue should land roughly flat: international and production-side work offsets soft North American completions pricing. Earnings grow off the depressed base, but the incremental margin lift narrows as prior-year comparisons normalize in the back half.
≈ inline with expectations
Years 2–3
Holding
Structurally the earnings power holds rather than erodes: the category shrinks a few points a year but HAL is taking share within it and its production/intervention base is tied to installed wells, not new sanctioning. Equally, there is no mechanism for durable acceleration — efficiency gains flow to customers and North American capacity oversupply caps pricing.
↑ above expectations
The creme: each rung's call measured against what's already printed (vs analyst estimates · vs guidance / FY consensus · vs price-implied growth) — expectations in print are already in the price, so only the variant margin can pay. Hover a rung's chip for the margin read.
Growth drivers
51 Earnings power recovering faster than revenue — Matched-quarter operating income +25.8% and net income +47.2% on only +1.7% revenue means mix and cost structure — not volume — are doing the work. That is consistent with cost-out actions annualizing and a shift toward higher-margin drilling/evaluation and production work. Recovery off a very low base (earnings CAGR -30%, recent annual earnings YoY -48.7%) so the percentages flatter, but direction of change is genuinely up.
42 Outgrowing a shrinking category — Category median recent growth is -3.1% and industry revenue CAGR -2.4%; HAL's recent quarters are +1.7%. A ~5pt spread is real share/mix gain, most plausibly from international and offshore work plus technology-differentiated completions equipment displacing legacy fleets rather than price.
36 Recurring production-side revenue base — Artificial lift, intervention, chemicals and production support are tied to installed well count and maintenance rather than new-drill sanctioning, which cushions revenue when customer capex is disciplined. This is the mechanism behind the observed low volatility (0.015) and 'steady' quarterly trend despite a hostile industry backdrop.
20 Consistent execution against estimates — Five straight EPS beats (+43%, +25%, +7%, +10%, +2%) shows management is forecasting its own cost base accurately in a soft market. The shrinking beat magnitude, however, says the easy delta is largely captured.
Growth risks
59 Industry-wide margin compression — Operating margins down 5.5pp and net margins 5.6pp across the industry over three years, with earnings CAGR -47.5%. HAL's margin recovery is running against a category-level pricing problem; if North American pressure-pumping capacity remains oversupplied, incremental pricing goes to the customer, capping the earnings rebound well short of prior peaks.
50 Customer capex discipline, not a capex cycle — Sector demand phase is 'steady' with demand score 0 — no boom to lever into. Operators are prioritizing efficiency and free cash flow over activity, so service intensity gains are partly offset by fewer wells and faster cycle times, which structurally shrinks the addressable job count even at flat oil prices.
43 Multi-year record is still negative — Revenue CAGR -1.8%, FCF CAGR -10.3%, not all years positive. Two good matched quarters do not overturn a multi-year downtrend; the base case must allow that +1.7% is a pause in a flat-to-down channel rather than an inflection.
24 Concentration and collection risk in key international markets — Large-country exposure (Middle East activity adjustments, Latin American national oil company payment cycles) can swing quarterly revenue and working capital independent of demand, adding downside variance to any single print.
30 Macro headwind to the commodity — Macro backdrop flagged as headwinds with 10y at 4.66; a demand-driven oil price drop would compress customer budgets within two quarters and hit the short-cycle completions book first.
The world is not abandoning oilfield services; it is de-rating their volume growth. Operators have converted the shale era into a maintenance-and-efficiency era: fewer, longer, faster wells, flat budgets, and relentless pressure on service pricing. That makes the category a low-single-digit shrinker rather than a cliff, and it rewards scale players who can substitute technology and equipment differentiation for price. HAL sits on the right side of that sort — recurring production work plus internationally weighted drilling exposure — which is why its revenue has flattened while the category still declines. But the same forces cap the upside: efficiency gains accrue to the customer, and there is no capex boom to lever. Energy transition is a slow discount rate on terminal value, not a near-term revenue event; the more binding constraint over two to three years is North American capacity oversupply and the absence of a sanctioning cycle large enough to restore prior-peak margins.
Growth position composite -18
ShrinkingStallingHoldingGrowingAccelerating
50Next 2 quarters · Holding
50Year 1 · Holding
50Years 2–3 · Holding
-18Composite (−100…+100)
A research prediction, not advice. Forward-graded: each rung is scored against the prints that follow it. Not an input to the GEM designation — track record first.
Claude Reading
Independent analyst synthesis · claude-opus-4-7 · generated 2026-08-28 01:50:45
Verdict Fairly valued at $35 with modest upside to $40-42 on normalized earnings; Market Forces' "uninvestable" call is wrong — this is a cyclical trough, not structural collapse.

Looking at the raw quarterlies first: revenue is actually stabilizing, not collapsing. The last four prints are $5.51B → $5.66B → $5.40B → $5.71B — that's flat-to-up sequentially, and Q2'26 at $5.71B is the highest print in the series. The "recent revenue YoY -3.3%" masks that the bottom appears to be in. Net income tells a messier story: Q3'25 collapsed to $18M (almost certainly a one-time charge — impairment or restructuring — not operational), which is dragging every trailing metric. Strip that quarter and TTM NI is closer to $2.05B, not the $1.28B annual figure, putting normalized P/E around 14-15x rather than 23.6x. The "earnings CAGR -30.3%" and "recent earnings YoY -48.7%" figures are arithmetic artifacts of that single quarter comparison, not a trend. The Market Forces module calling this "uninvestable at any reasonable valuation" with a "projected 50% EPS decline" is wildly overwrought — H1'26 NI of $995M annualizes to ~$2.0B, not a further 50% cut from an already-depressed base.

The balance sheet is fine, not stressed: $7.16B debt against $2.21B cash and $2.93B operating cash flow gives net debt/EBITDA around 1.7x, current ratio 2.04, ROIC 10.7% through a cyclical trough. FCF of $1.67B on a $29.6B market cap is a 5.6% FCF yield, and capex at $1.25B is ~5.6% of revenue — reasonable for OFS. Dividend of 1.9% is well-covered. This isn't a broken company; it's a cyclical trading at trough earnings. The synthesis composite of $42.97 pre-signal-adjustment is probably closer to right than the signal-adjusted $34.91, because the signal adjustment is being poisoned by the same one-quarter noise. Fair value on normalized $2.0-2.2B earnings at a defensible 15-16x multiple is $30-35B market cap, or roughly $36-42/share — putting current price at the low end of fair, not overvalued.

The contrarian bear case that actually has teeth (not the "uninvestable" hyperbole) is structural: North American frac is a commoditized, oversupplied market where Halliburton competes with private capacity that keeps returning after every cycle; international growth was the bull thesis and Saudi rig count cuts in 2024 gutted it; and completions intensity per well is plateauing as operators consolidate and demand efficiency over volume. Peer SLB trades at similar multiples with better international mix. The insider activity — three sales in two days in August 2026 totaling ~193K shares with zero buys — is not "neutral"; it's a mild negative signal, though small in dollar terms and possibly programmatic. The narrative module's read that "energy transition risk is priced in" is probably right — this stock hasn't been a growth story for a decade and doesn't pretend to be.

I dissent from Market Forces (which is catastrophizing off noisy metrics) and largely agree with the Synthesis fair-value verdict, though I'd anchor higher — closer to $38-40 than $35 — because the composite is being dragged down by signal adjustments reading Q3'25 as trend. This is a cyclical bottom trade with acceptable downside (10-15% to prior lows around $30) and modest upside (15-25% to $42-44) if 2026 continues the sequential revenue improvement visible in the last two prints. Not a table-pound, not a short. The thin spot in the data: no gross margin disclosed, no segment breakdown between Completion & Production vs. Drilling & Evaluation, and no visibility into international backlog which is what actually determines 2026-27 earnings trajectory. Without those, conviction can't exceed 3.

GPT Reading
Independent reading · gpt-5.4 · generated 2026-08-28 01:51:01
Verdict Fairly valued at $35.49 — recovery is real but mostly priced in; I’d need either sub-$30 for a cyclical entry or clearer proof of $2B+ sustainable earnings to justify $40+.

What stands out is not a collapsing franchise but a business whose earnings power got hit sharply in 2025 and has only partially recovered, while the stock is already priced close to normalized value. Revenue has actually been remarkably stable: the last eight quarters sit in a narrow $5.40B-$5.71B band, and annual sales were $23.02B in 2023, $22.94B in 2024, and $22.18B in 2025. That is a mild top-line fade, not a structural break. The problem is margin volatility. Net income fell from $2.64B in 2023 to $2.50B in 2024 and then to $1.28B in 2025, with quarterly net margin swinging from 11.0% in 4Q24 to 3.8% in 1Q25 and an absurdly weak 0.3% in 3Q25 before rebounding to 10.4% in 4Q25 and 9.3% in 2Q26. So the market’s 23.6x P/E is not paying for a consistent 2025 business; it is paying through a trough and assuming something closer to the recent run rate is sustainable.

Using that framing, the valuation looks roughly full rather than cheap. The last four quarters of net income sum to about $1.60B, which annualizes the recovery better than the depressed FY2025 number, and that would imply a forward-ish earnings multiple closer to 18x-19x on today’s $29.6B market cap. Free cash flow of $1.67B in 2025 gives only about a 5.6% FCF yield, acceptable but not compelling for a cyclical oilfield services name with negative 3-year revenue CAGR and much worse earnings CAGR. EV/EBITDA at 10.4x and EV/revenue at 1.59x are not distressed multiples; they assume Halliburton can defend double-digit operating economics despite a latest annual operating margin of just 10.2%, down hard from 17.7% in 2023 and 16.7% in 2024. Balance sheet risk is manageable—$7.16B debt against $2.21B cash and $10.51B equity is fine, current ratio above 2x is healthy—but that just removes downside tail risk; it does not create upside.

I also think one of the supplied signals overstates the bearishness. “Catastrophic margin compression” is too dramatic given the actual quarterly sequence. Yes, 2025 was ugly, but 4Q25, 1Q26, and 2Q26 already show net income of $589M, $461M, and $534M on essentially flat revenue, which suggests the business can still generate high-single-digit to low-double-digit net margins when conditions normalize. That is exactly why the stock has held in the mid-$30s despite the ugly 2025 print. But the opposite model error is to look at that stabilization and call the shares undervalued. If revenues are flat to down, and the best case is mostly a margin recovery back toward 2024 territory, then a lot of the thesis is multiple support from “normalized earnings,” not genuine growth. For a mature service company facing macro headwinds, I do not want to pay nearly 19x on recovered earnings for a business that earned $2.50B in 2024 but only $1.67B of free cash flow in 2025.

The best case against my read is straightforward: 2025 may have been the trough, and the stock looks cheap if you underwrite a return even partway toward 2023-2024 profitability. On 2024 net income of $2.50B, today’s market cap is only about 11.8x earnings; on 2023 operating income of $4.08B, the enterprise value could look quite reasonable. Recent quarterly revenues are improving sequentially from $5.40B to $5.71B through the first half of 2026, and recent net income is running well above the weak 2025 average. Cash generation also held up better than earnings, with $2.93B operating cash flow and $1.67B free cash flow in 2025, which supports the idea that the earnings slump had transitory or non-cash elements. If North American activity stabilizes and international work remains resilient, then this could be one of those cyclical names where the headline P/E looks expensive right before EPS snaps back.

What would change my mind is evidence that the 2026 recovery is durable enough to re-establish 2024-like economics. Concretely, if Halliburton can deliver two or three more quarters with revenue at or above $5.7B and net margins sustainably above 9.5%-10%, I would start underwriting at least $2.0B-$2.2B of annual earnings power and see upside from $35 toward the low-$40s. Conversely, if revenue stays stuck around $5.4B-$5.6B and margins slide back into the mid-single digits, then the current price is too generous and the stock belongs below $30. The near-term debate is not about survival or balance sheet stress; it is about whether 2025 was a one-year margin pothole or the start of a lower-return regime. Right now, the shares price in too much of the rebound for me to call them cheap.

Grok Reading
Independent reading · grok-4.5 · generated 2026-08-28 01:51:51
Verdict Mildly undervalued at $35.49 versus mid-cycle earnings power near $2B and unadjusted fair value ~$43; fair if margins re-compress

Halliburton’s numbers describe a mature oilfield-services franchise whose top line has barely budged while profitability has been cut in half. Annual revenue slipped only from $23.02B in 2023 to $22.18B in 2025 (−1.8% CAGR), and the last eight quarters still cluster tightly between $5.40B and $5.71B; this is not a demand collapse. What broke is the margin structure: operating income fell from $4.08B to $2.26B and net income from $2.64B to $1.28B, producing the −30% earnings CAGR and the −48.7% recent earnings YoY print. The 2025-09 quarter ($18M NI, 0.3% margin) was the low-water mark; subsequent quarters have reclaimed 8.5–10.4% net margins, and 2026 H1 already delivered $995M of net income on $11.11B of revenue—an annualized run-rate near $2B if the second half holds. Free-cash-flow quality remains the cleanest part of the story: $2.93B operating cash and $1.67B FCF against only $1.25B of capex, a 5.6% FCF yield on the $29.57B equity value, net debt of roughly $5.0B, and a current ratio of 2.04. At $35.49 the stock screens at 23.6× trailing earnings, 10.4× EV/EBITDA and 1.36× sales—multiples that look rich on 2025 trough profits but ordinary if the 2026 run-rate is sustainable.

The valuation-synthesis composite of $42.97 before the headwind haircut, versus the signal-adjusted $34.91 that sits 1.6% below the current price, is therefore the right tension to resolve. I side with the unadjusted anchor. Revenue stability plus sequential margin repair implies the market is already capitalizing a mid-cycle earnings base closer to $2B than to the depressed $1.28B, which would put the forward multiple nearer 15× and EV/EBITDA in the high single digits—levels that have historically marked fair-to-cheap territory for HAL in prior cycle troughs. Insider sales of roughly 193k shares in mid-August 2026 are visible but small relative to float and do not override the cash-generation picture. The “steady-compounder / fundamentals-anchored” narrative layer is consistent with the tape: the stock is trading within a couple of percent of DCF value, not on energy-transition mythology or super-cycle euphoria.

The strongest contrary case is the Market Forces verdict of “catastrophic margin compression” and structural industry deterioration. A skeptic would note that operating margin has already compressed from the mid-teens to ~10%, that FCF itself is declining at a 10% CAGR, that ROE of 12.2% and ROIC of 10.7% are only adequate for a capital-intensive cyclicals business, and that a 23.6× P/E on any further earnings disappointment leaves no margin of safety. Energy-transition budget shifts and North American drilling efficiency could keep completion and production-services pricing under permanent pressure, turning the recent 8–9% net-margin recovery into a temporary dead-cat bounce rather than mean reversion. If that path materializes, the $42.97 composite is fantasy and even $35 is too high. I weigh that risk as real but already partially discounted: the stock sits in the lower half of its $21–$44 range, the balance sheet is not stretched (D/E 0.68), and the absolute dollar of FCF still covers the dividend and leaves surplus. Structural decline would show up first as sub-$20B revenue and sub-$1B FCF; neither is evident yet.

I would flip to outright bearish if two consecutive quarters print net margins back below 4% or if trailing-twelve-month revenue breaks $20B on the downside with FCF under $1.2B. I would become table-pounding bullish if 2026 full-year net income clears $2.2B and North American rig and completion activity stabilizes enough to push operating margin back toward 14%. Until those prints arrive, the stock is a modestly cheap cyclical, not a value trap and not a compounder.

Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Each AI above independently stated a direction (undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued) and how strongly it believes it (conviction, 0–5). We combine those into a Bull-Bear Index on a 0–10 scale: 5 is neutral, 10 is maximum bullish (undervalued at full conviction), 0 is maximum bearish. We compute the score ourselves with the same arithmetic for every seat — the models never grade their own bullishness — so the three are directly comparable. Δ shows how far each seat sits from the panel average of 6.0; a large Δ marks the dissenting voice, usually the one worth reading.
Claude claude-opus-4-7 5.0
fairly valued · conviction 3/5 · Δ -1.0 vs panel · self: 6.0
GPT gpt-5.4 5.0
fairly valued · conviction 4/5 · Δ -1.0 vs panel · self: 5.0
Grok grok-4.5 8.0
undervalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +2.0 vs panel · self: 6.0
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-08-28 02:03:28
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Fair — wait for a dip 7/10
Halliburton is a solid, cash-generative cyclical trading right on top of fair value — no margin of safety at $35.49, so it's a watchlist name, not a buy today.
The cruxWhether 2025's 750bp operating margin collapse is a one-year trough or the start of a structural de-rate — that single question decides if $29 or $38 is the right anchor.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from HAL's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionShare Count Shrinking
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The four lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+4
Solid
edge √Σ 82 · risk √Σ 78 · conf 7/10

Halliburton is a mature, self-funding oilfield services business generating $1.67B FCF on $22.18B revenue in 2025, with a five-year OCF/NI of 1.57x and negative accruals (-4% of assets) — the mechanical earnings-quality picture is clean and Altman Z of 3.53 sits in the safe zone. Management is a net buyer of its own stock, taking diluted share count from 908M (2022) to 853M (2025), a -1.1% CAGR that quietly compounds per-share value. Balance sheet carries roughly $4.95B net debt against $2.21B liquid cash — manageable given FCF but not a fortress cushion in a cyclical industry. The concerning fact in the raw tape is the 2025 reversal: operating margin collapsed from 17.7% (2023) and 16.7% (2024) to 10.2%, and net income nearly halved from $2.50B to $1.28B on revenue that also slipped from $22.94B to $22.18B. This is characteristic North American pressure-pumping cyclicality, not obvious accounting stress (FCF actually rose to $1.67B as working capital released), but it exposes the lack of durable pricing power. Insider tape shows only sales (CEO Miller sold $4.4M in Aug 2026), which is not alarming for a mature-earner comp plan but offers no confirming buy signal.

Strengths 3
m55
Clean earnings quality
OCF/NI 1.57x, accruals -4% of assets, Altman Z 3.53 safe — reported profits are backed by cash and no mechanical red flags.
m45
Consistent per-share concentration
Diluted shares fell from 908M in 2022 to 853M in 2025 (-1.1% CAGR); management is a net buyer, not a diluter.
m40
Self-funding FCF
Generated $1.67B FCF in 2025 (up from $1.11B in 2021); does not need external capital to operate or invest.
Concerns 4
m60
Sharp 2025 margin reversal
Operating margin fell from 16.7% (2024) to 10.2% (2025) and net income halved to $1.28B — reveals limited pricing durability in a cyclical downturn.
m40
Net debt position
$4.95B net debt vs $2.21B cash — balance sheet is a constraint, not a cushion, if the cycle deepens.
m25
Cyclical/commodity exposure
Revenue essentially flat 2023-2025 ($23.02B to $22.18B) while margins swung 750bps — earnings are tied to E&P capex cycles, not a moat.
m15
Insider selling only
3 sales totaling $6.77M in the last 12 months, zero open-market buys; routine for compensation but no confirming signal.
This is a textbook mature cyclical earner — clean books, disciplined share count, real FCF — but the 2025 numbers remind you why oilfield services rarely earns a premium quality grade. A 750bp operating margin swing in one year on flat-ish revenue tells me pricing power is thin and results are ultimately hostage to E&P capex. The balance sheet is workable but not fortress-like with ~$5B net debt. I read Halliburton as a well-run business in a structurally tough industry: solidly in the 'sound' band, nowhere near elite, and the recent margin reversal keeps it from pushing higher.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Cause of 2025 operating margin compression — pricing, mix, or one-time charges in the 10-K MD&A
  • Customer/geographic concentration, especially North America land pressure pumping exposure
  • Debt maturity schedule and covenant terms against the $4.95B net debt
  • Whether 2025 buyback pace was sustained despite lower earnings, and remaining authorization
  • Segment-level operating income trend (Completion & Production vs Drilling & Evaluation)
Valuation / Mispricing
-41
Fairly Valued
edge √Σ 43 · risk √Σ 87 · conf 7/10
Price $35.49 vs deserved ~$35, essentially zero margin of safety; would need high-20s to offer a real discount to EPV floor. attractive below $29.00

The composite fair value of $42.97 looks optimistic once you strip out the anchored-PE of $66.47, which is clearly a runaway output for a cyclical services name whose 2025 operating margin swung 750bp lower on flat revenue. The more defensible anchors are the DCF at $37.99 and the EPV floor at $29.42, which bracket the current $35.49 price almost perfectly. The signal-adjusted FV of $34.91 says the same thing: this is priced. Quality is solid but not premium - clean earnings, buybacks, ~$5B net debt, but thin pricing power and full E&P capex sensitivity. That profile deserves a mid-cycle multiple, not a premium. With price 2% ABOVE signal-adjusted FV and only ~10% below the DCF, there is no gap to exploit - you are paying for the business you are getting. Bull case requires a sustained completions upcycle; bear case (energy transition, offshore mix shift, margin compression) is live and already showing up in 2025 numbers. Neither is decisively priced in, which is the definition of fair.

Cheap signals 2
m35
Modest discount to DCF
DCF of $37.99 vs $35.49 price implies ~7% upside - real but well inside model noise for a cyclical.
m25
Clean earnings quality supports FV
High earnings quality (score 3) means no haircut needed - the deserved value inputs can be taken at face value rather than marked down.
Rich / priced-in 4
m55
Price sits above signal-adjusted FV
$35.49 vs signal-adjusted FV of $34.91 - upside is -2%. The market is not mispricing this in your favor.
m45
Anchored-PE of $66.47 is a runaway input
Applying a stable-earner PE to a cyclical whose op margin just contracted 750bp is not credible; discount this method heavily when reading the $42.97 composite.
m40
EPV floor sits below current price
EPV of $29.42 is ~17% below the tape, meaning today's price already assumes a mid-cycle earnings normalization rather than trough conditions.
m30
Cyclical margin risk not fully in price
2025 op margin erosion on flat revenue is a warning that consensus forward earnings supporting the DCF could be optimistic if E&P capex softens further.
This is fair, not cheap. The composite FV of $42.97 is inflated by an anchored-PE method that has no business being applied to a cyclical services name mid-margin-contraction; the honest read is the DCF-EPV bracket of roughly $29 to $38, and $35.49 sits squarely inside it. I would need this in the high-20s - closer to the EPV floor - before the risk-reward tilts my way, because a good business at a full price is not the trade I'm paid to make.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • North America completions pricing and frac fleet utilization trends in next quarterly guidance
  • International segment margin trajectory and offshore backlog conversion
  • Capex and buyback cadence given ~$5B net debt
  • Any one-time charges or impairments embedded in the 2025 margin drop
General Sentiment
-6
Balanced
tail √Σ 53 · head √Σ 58 · conf 6/10

Sentiment pressure on HAL is muted in both directions. The archetype is a steady-compounder with minimal narrative intensity and low cult following, so there is no hot story bidding it up and no active de-rating breaking it down. With beta 0.75 the mildly risk-on tape (VIX 14.5, S&P near highs) barely reaches this name - it neither benefits from the melt-up in high-beta growth nor suffers acute macro stress. The 72-hour news flow is modestly constructive: a headline BP integrated contract for the Bumerangue deepwater appraisal in Brazil validates HAL's positioning in premium offshore work and cuts against the 'legacy asset in decline' bear frame. Countering that is the persistent energy-transition overhang and a sector that global generalist money continues to underweight, which caps enthusiasm even on good news. Net: a slight positive news pulse inside a durable-but-sleepy narrative, sitting in a tape that neither rewards nor punishes it much.

Tailwinds 3
m42
BP Bumerangue contract win
Fresh integrated deepwater award from BP is a tangible, on-narrative datapoint that HAL still captures premium offshore work - directly rebuts the 'stranded legacy services' bear pitch and gives the tape something concrete to point to.
m25
Risk-on tape, but muted transmission
S&P near highs and VIX 14.5 is a supportive backdrop, but with beta 0.75 and energy-services being off the momentum-chaser radar, the tailwind reaches HAL only faintly.
m20
Deleveraging signal
D/E moving 0.81 to 0.68 is a quiet positive that supports the 'disciplined capital return' bull framing and reduces balance-sheet-driven selling pressure.
Headwinds 3
m45
Energy-transition narrative overhang
Generalist flows continue to treat oilfield services as a run-off cohort. Even with a durable cash-flow story, the sector carries a persistent sentiment discount that keeps multiple expansion capped.
m30
Higher-for-longer rates and rich market PE
10y at 4.66% and market PE 26 pressure all equities, but a low-beta, cash-generative name like HAL absorbs this better than growth cohorts - real but ordinary crosswind.
m22
No active bid / low cult
Minimal narrative intensity and low cult coefficient mean there is no reflexive buyer base to squeeze the stock higher on good news - price tends to drift rather than break out.
This is a sentiment nothing-burger with a mild positive lean. The narrative is durable but dormant, the news pulse is genuinely constructive (BP deepwater win is on-thesis), and the risk-on tape is supportive but barely transmits through a 0.75 beta name in an unloved sector. The energy-transition overhang is real but it is priced-in background noise, not an active de-rating force. Net pressure is roughly balanced with a whisker of tailwind - I would not expect sentiment alone to move this stock much in either direction near term; it will trade on oil, results, and contract flow.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • OPEC+ signaling and crude tape - a sharp oil selloff would swamp the positive contract narrative
  • Analyst target revisions post BP-Bumerangue award - any upgrades would shift the tone
  • North American frac activity commentary from peers (SLB, BKR) that could confirm or crack the pricing-power story
  • Any generalist rotation into energy on inflation reacceleration - would meaningfully lift the whole cohort
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
Growth Outlook
-18
Holding
edge √Σ 78 · risk √Σ 96 · conf 6/10

The world is not abandoning oilfield services; it is de-rating their volume growth. Operators have converted the shale era into a maintenance-and-efficiency era: fewer, longer, faster wells, flat budgets, and relentless pressure on service pricing. That makes the category a low-single-digit shrinker rather than a cliff, and it rewards scale players who can substitute technology and equipment differentiation for price. HAL sits on the right side of that sort — recurring production work plus internationally weighted drilling exposure — which is why its revenue has flattened while the category still declines. But the same forces cap the upside: efficiency gains accrue to the customer, and there is no capex boom to lever. Energy transition is a slow discount rate on terminal value, not a near-term revenue event; the more binding constraint over two to three years is North American capacity oversupply and the absence of a sanctioning cycle large enough to restore prior-peak margins.

Growth drivers 4
m51
Earnings power recovering faster than revenue
Matched-quarter operating income +25.8% and net income +47.2% on only +1.7% revenue means mix and cost structure — not volume — are doing the work. That is consistent with cost-out actions annualizing and a shift toward higher-margin drilling/evaluation and production work. Recovery off a very low base (earnings CAGR -30%, recent annual earnings YoY -48.7%) so the percentages flatter, but direction of change is genuinely up.
m42
Outgrowing a shrinking category
Category median recent growth is -3.1% and industry revenue CAGR -2.4%; HAL's recent quarters are +1.7%. A ~5pt spread is real share/mix gain, most plausibly from international and offshore work plus technology-differentiated completions equipment displacing legacy fleets rather than price.
m36
Recurring production-side revenue base
Artificial lift, intervention, chemicals and production support are tied to installed well count and maintenance rather than new-drill sanctioning, which cushions revenue when customer capex is disciplined. This is the mechanism behind the observed low volatility (0.015) and 'steady' quarterly trend despite a hostile industry backdrop.
m20
Consistent execution against estimates
Five straight EPS beats (+43%, +25%, +7%, +10%, +2%) shows management is forecasting its own cost base accurately in a soft market. The shrinking beat magnitude, however, says the easy delta is largely captured.
Growth risks 5
m59
Industry-wide margin compression
Operating margins down 5.5pp and net margins 5.6pp across the industry over three years, with earnings CAGR -47.5%. HAL's margin recovery is running against a category-level pricing problem; if North American pressure-pumping capacity remains oversupplied, incremental pricing goes to the customer, capping the earnings rebound well short of prior peaks.
m50
Customer capex discipline, not a capex cycle
Sector demand phase is 'steady' with demand score 0 — no boom to lever into. Operators are prioritizing efficiency and free cash flow over activity, so service intensity gains are partly offset by fewer wells and faster cycle times, which structurally shrinks the addressable job count even at flat oil prices.
m43
Multi-year record is still negative
Revenue CAGR -1.8%, FCF CAGR -10.3%, not all years positive. Two good matched quarters do not overturn a multi-year downtrend; the base case must allow that +1.7% is a pause in a flat-to-down channel rather than an inflection.
m24
Concentration and collection risk in key international markets
Large-country exposure (Middle East activity adjustments, Latin American national oil company payment cycles) can swing quarterly revenue and working capital independent of demand, adding downside variance to any single print.
m30
Macro headwind to the commodity
Macro backdrop flagged as headwinds with 10y at 4.66; a demand-driven oil price drop would compress customer budgets within two quarters and hit the short-cycle completions book first.
vs expectations: ~6m inline · 1y inline · 2-3y above
The forward growth verdict — is the business itself likely to grow (next 2 quarters / year 1 / years 2–3), judged against its category and against printed expectations. The full horizon ladder + creme renders on the Growth Outlook card above. Not a call on the price (Valuation owns that) or the tape (Sentiment owns that).
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Lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure), and Growth Outlook (the forward growth verdict). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Price Prediction
Higher +6.5% v0.6.0 View full prediction →

When we made this prediction on Aug 28, 2026, HAL was $36.14. We expect it to be $38.50 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $29.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 28, 2026.

Price when predicted$36.14
Our estimate for Feb 2027$38.50+6.5%
Great value below$29.00
Price history shown (6 Months)

Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.

Post-Report Due Diligence NOTES
The report is written. This is what its valuation stands on.
Analyzed Sep 12, 2026 · 02:02 10d ago
Read epv-floor ext-gem-composite anchored-pe · FY income statement, balance sheet
1 finding · $0, re-derived on each view

Evidence for a closer look, not a verdict — no score or designation on this page has been changed by it. Items marked material are ones where a conclusion above moves to the other side of the price.

epv-floor — the "fair value below price" reading turns on 3 inputs NOTE found by sensitivity, not by rule
Published $27.53 vs price $35.49. Nudging `adjusted_earnings` (up 25%), `cost_of_capital` (down 25%), `shares` (down 25%) moves the fair value to the other side of the price. This does not say those inputs are wrong — it says they are where to look first.
adjusted_earnings flips up 25% cost_of_capital flips down 25% shares flips down 25%
Price at analysis $35.49. This is where an investigation should start — it is not where one ends. Nothing here was checked against the filings, the tape, or the news; that is the investigator's job.
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My Notes personal — only you see this
v1.1.676 · abbe4534 · 2026-09-22 23:17:29