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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for WEC Energy Group Inc. (WEC) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-09-22): Designation Low · Gem Score -27 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 32 · Value -66 · Sentiment 26 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $51.87 vs $106.01 at analysis
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WEC Energy Group Inc.
WEC NYSEWEC Energy Group Inc. is a utility holding company that provides electric and natural gas services across the Midwest. The company operates regulated utility businesses serving residential, commercial, and industrial customers through electricity generation, power distribution, natural gas delivery, and related energy infrastructure. Its operations are organized across Wisconsin, Illinois, and other regional service territories, along with electric transmission and non-utility energy infrastructure activities. WEC Energy Group Inc. also participates in renewable energy and LNG-related operations, adding to its broader energy portfolio. Headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, the company plays a central role in delivering essential energy services and supporting the reliability of local power and gas networks.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 4.81
Total Equity: $14.05B
Shares: 323,800,000
Total Debt: $20.02B
Cash: $27.60M
EBITDA: $3.72B
Total Debt: $20.02B
Cash: $27.60M
Revenue: $9.80B
Revenue: $9.80B
Revenue: $9.80B
Total Equity: $14.05B
Tax Rate: 7.1%
Equity: $14.05B
Total Debt: $20.02B
Cash: $27.60M
Current Liabilities: $5.59B
Long-Term Debt: $18.50B
Total Debt: $20.02B
Total Equity: $14.05B
Shares: 323,800,000
Shares: 323,800,000
CapEx: $0.00
Shares: 323,800,000
Stock Price: $106.01
Net Income: $1.56B
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 24, 2026 6:18am (29d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $8.3B | $9.6B | $8.9B | $8.6B | $9.8B |
| Cost of Revenue | $3.3B | $4.4B | $3.2B | $2.7B | $3.3B |
| Gross Profit | $5.0B | $5.2B | $5.7B | $5.9B | $6.5B |
| Operating Expenses | $3.3B | $3.3B | $3.8B | $3.8B | $4.3B |
| Operating Income | $1.7B | $1.9B | $1.9B | $2.2B | $2.2B |
| Net Income | $1.3B | $1.4B | $1.3B | $1.5B | $1.6B |
| EBITDA | $2.8B | $3.0B | $3.2B | $3.5B | $3.7B |
| EPS | $4.12 | $4.46 | $4.22 | $4.83 | $4.84 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $4.11 | $4.45 | $4.22 | $4.83 | $4.81 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 24, 2026 6:00am (29d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $16.3M | $28.9M | $42.9M | $9.8M | $27.6M |
| Total Current Assets | $2.7B | $3.2B | $2.8B | $2.9B | $3.3B |
| Total Assets | $39.0B | $41.9B | $43.9B | $47.4B | $51.5B |
| Current Liabilities | $3.8B | $4.6B | $5.1B | $4.8B | $5.6B |
| Long-Term Debt | $13.5B | $14.7B | $15.4B | $17.2B | $18.5B |
| Total Liabilities | $27.9B | $30.3B | $31.9B | $34.6B | $37.5B |
| Total Equity | $11.1B | $11.6B | $12.1B | $12.8B | $14.1B |
| Retained Earnings | $6.8B | $7.3B | $7.6B | $8.1B | $8.5B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 24, 2026 6:18am (29d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $2.0B | $2.1B | $3.0B | $3.2B | $3.4B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$2.4B | -$2.7B | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | -$340.0M | -$636.2M | — | — | — |
| Acquisitions (net) | $0 | — | — | — | — |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | $1.1B | $1.9B | $1.2B | $2.3B | $1.1B |
| Dividends Paid | -$854.8M | -$917.9M | -$984.2M | -$1.1B | -$1.1B |
| Stock Buybacks | -$33.1M | -$69.2M | -$16.6M | -$3.2M | -$1.3M |
| Net Change in Cash | $14.9M | $94.7M | -$17.0M | -$123.0M | $28.7M |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 24, 2026 6:18am (29d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +15.4% | -7.3% | -3.3% | +14.0% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +4.7% | +8.8% | +4.2% | +9.9% |
| Operating Income Growth | +12.2% | -0.8% | +12.8% | +4.3% |
| Net Income Growth | +8.6% | -5.5% | +14.5% | +2.0% |
| EBITDA Growth | +9.2% | +4.1% | +10.6% | +6.2% |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 24, 2026 6:00am (29d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | $0.95 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-14 | $0.95 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-13 | $0.95 | — | — | — |
| 2025-11-14 | $0.89 | — | — | — |
| 2025-08-14 | $0.89 | — | — | — |
| 2025-05-14 | $0.89 | — | — | — |
| 2025-02-14 | $0.89 | — | — | — |
| 2024-11-14 | $0.84 | — | — | — |
| 2024-08-14 | $0.84 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-13 | $0.84 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-13 | $0.84 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-13 | $0.78 | — | — | — |
| 2023-08-11 | $0.78 | — | — | — |
| 2023-05-11 | $0.78 | — | — | — |
| 2023-02-13 | $0.78 | — | — | — |
| 2022-11-10 | $0.73 | — | — | — |
| 2022-08-11 | $0.73 | — | — | — |
| 2022-05-12 | $0.73 | — | — | — |
| 2022-02-11 | $0.73 | — | — | — |
| 2021-11-10 | $0.68 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Risk : Reward — upside vs downside from this company's own quarters
Not computed yetNarrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Growth Outlook
Analyzed 2026-08-24 06:29The question every valuation on this page silently assumes: is this company likely to grow? Judged forward — the business, its category, the world — against what's already printed.
Claude Reading
The raw numbers tell a clean story: WEC is a regulated utility doing exactly what regulated utilities do. 2025 revenue of $9.80B vs 2021's $8.32B is a 4.2% CAGR, net income $1.56B vs $1.30B is 4.7% CAGR — the "8.1% earnings CAGR" the momentum model cites is cherry-picked from a weak 2023 base. The seasonal quarterly pattern (Q1 always ~$3.2-3.4B and 23% margins from winter heating demand, Q2/Q3 ~$2B at 12-13%) is intact, and the "accelerating quarterly trend" flag from Revenue Confidence is a misread — the 14% YoY recent revenue is a weather/rate-case artifact, not a step-change. Operating CF of $3.38B against $20B of debt (D/E 1.42, current ratio 0.59, cash of $27.6M against a $34.5B market cap) is standard utility capital structure, but ROIC of 6.13% barely clears WACC in a 4-5% risk-free world. This is a bond proxy, full stop.
On valuation, the synthesis's $88.71 DCF fair value and $94.56 signal-adjusted number look about right to me, maybe slightly harsh. At 22x earnings and 3.5x sales, WEC trades at the upper end of its historical band and at a premium to peers like DUK (~19x) and SO (~20x). The 3.54% dividend yield with a 73.8% payout ratio means dividend growth is mechanically tied to rate-base growth of ~6-7%, so total return math is roughly 3.5% yield + 5-6% EPS growth = 8.5-9.5% — respectable but not compelling when 10-year Treasuries offer 4%+ risk-free. The synthesis's "high debt risk" flag I'd push back on: utilities carry high leverage by design, coverage ratios are fine, and regulated ROE recovery mechanisms make refinancing risk overstated. But the "market prices in more growth than projected" critique is fair — at 22x, you're paying for the electrification/data-center narrative that hasn't materially shown up in the numbers yet.
Where I'd push a contrarian angle: the bull case that nobody's articulating clearly is data-center load growth in WEC's Wisconsin territory (Microsoft's $3.3B Mount Pleasant campus, Meta, Google interest). If load growth surprises to 2-3% annually vs the utility industry's historical ~0.5%, rate base compounds faster and EPS growth moves from 6% to 8-9%, which mathematically justifies today's 22x multiple. That said, this is speculative — no visible acceleration in the actual revenue trajectory yet, and Wisconsin PSC allowed ROEs (9.8-10%) cap the upside. Insider activity is genuinely neutral-to-mildly-negative (net sales of ~4,700 shares vs modest awards) but the volumes are trivial for a $34B company — I'd not read into it. The narrative model's "minimal intensity, durable, anchored" read is exactly right: this isn't a story stock, it's a spreadsheet stock, and spreadsheets say 22x is 10-15% rich.
I agree with the synthesis verdict of fully_priced, but I'd frame it more precisely than the models do. Fair value in the $90-95 range, current $106 = a 10-15% overpay that will be corrected either by (a) a 12-18 month sideways grind while earnings catch up, or (b) a rate-driven repricing if the 10-year moves back above 4.5%. This is not a short — regulated utilities don't collapse, and the dividend provides a floor around $95-98 (where yield hits ~3.9%). But it's also not a buy at $106; income investors are better served waiting for a pullback or rotating to lower-P/E peers. The market-forces "neutral" and pre-flight "dividend-income" tags are appropriately calibrated. My one dissent from the prior stack: the "critical flag: high debt risk" language overstates the case for a regulated utility — this isn't a leverage-driven blowup risk, it's a valuation-driven mean-reversion risk, and those are very different things to communicate to a client.
GPT Reading
WEC looks like exactly what it is: a high-quality regulated utility that the market is paying a premium for, but the premium is now ahead of the underlying earnings power. The raw numbers show a business with respectable but not exciting growth. Revenue went from $8.32B in 2021 to $9.80B in 2025, a roughly 4% annualized climb, while net income rose from $1.30B to $1.56B, about 5% annualized. That is decent utility compounding, not a step-change story. Even the recent quarterly acceleration needs context: the latest quarter was $2.06B of revenue versus $2.01B a year earlier, only about 2.5% growth, and net income was $301M versus $243M, a stronger 24% gain helped by margin expansion from 12.1% to 14.6%. The March quarter was similarly solid at $806M of net income on $3.43B of revenue, but seasonality is doing a lot of work here; this is not a linear high-growth profile. What stands out to me is stability, not upside surprise.
Profitability is good for a regulated utility, but valuation already reflects that. On 2025 numbers, WEC earned $1.56B and trades at about 22x earnings, 3.5x sales, and 14.5x EV/EBITDA. For a company with ROIC of 6.1%, ROE of 11.1%, and a dividend payout ratio near 74%, that is a full multiple. Yes, operating margin of 22.9% and net margin of 15.9% are attractive, and 2025 operating income of $2.24B was the best in the five-year set. But there is no evidence in these figures of an economic engine suddenly deserving a re-rating. In fact, 2024 revenue was only $8.60B after $8.89B in 2023 and $9.60B in 2022, which tells you top-line growth is partly weather and rate-case noise rather than a smooth structural climb. A premium multiple can make sense for consistency; it is harder to justify at $106 when consistency is all you are getting.
The balance sheet is the real limiter on upside. Total debt of $20.02B against just $27.6M of cash is normal-ish for a utility in structure but still leaves little room for complacency when the stock is priced richly. Debt-to-equity at 1.42x and a current ratio of 0.59 are not signs of distress in this sector, yet they do matter when investors are accepting only a 3.54% dividend yield. Operating cash flow of $3.38B is healthy, but without free cash flow disclosure here, I have to assume the usual utility pattern: heavy capex consumes much of it, leaving equity holders reliant on steady access to debt and equity markets plus favorable regulation. That is fine at a fair price; it is less attractive when investors are treating the shares almost like a bond proxy while long-duration assets remain rate-sensitive. At $106, the stock looks priced for lower rates, smooth rate recovery, and no execution hiccups.
The best counterargument is straightforward: WEC deserves to trade rich because it has actually delivered steady earnings growth despite revenue volatility, and the latest data support that. Net income rose from $1.52B in 2024 to $1.56B in 2025 even as the revenue base normalized, suggesting rate base growth and cost discipline are working. Quarterly earnings in the first half of 2026 were $1.11B versus about $969M in the first half of 2025, up roughly 14%, which is better than the sleepy image implies. For many investors, that plus a 3.5% yield from a regulated franchise is enough to justify paying 22x earnings, especially if Treasury yields fall and defensives come back into favor. I weigh that differently because utilities rarely sustain premium expansion unless growth clearly accelerates, and here the improvement is incremental, not transformative. With payout already high, there is not much internal reinvestment optionality, and with leverage already substantial, the stock needs valuation support from income scarcity more than from business acceleration.
What would change my mind is not another quarter of “good enough” earnings. I would turn more constructive if WEC shows a clean path to sustained EPS growth materially above the historical 5-6% range without leverage worsening — for example, annual net income pushing toward $1.70B-$1.75B while keeping debt-to-equity stable and converting operating cash flow into visibly stronger post-capex coverage. I would also reassess if the stock derates into the low $90s, where a 19x-ish earnings multiple and a yield closer to 4% would better compensate for the capped growth and financing risk. Absent that, I see a very solid utility wrapped in too expensive a stock.
Grok Reading
WEC’s numbers describe a regulated utility doing exactly what the model says it should: grinding out mid-single-digit earnings growth behind a heavy capital structure and a dividend that absorbs nearly three-quarters of profits. Annual revenue climbed from $8.32B in 2021 to $9.80B in 2025, but the path was jagged—$9.60B in 2022, a retreat to $8.60–8.89B, then a 14% rebound in 2025 that lifted net income only modestly to $1.56B from $1.52B the prior year and $1.30B four years earlier. That implies an earnings CAGR closer to the high single digits the momentum tape prints, yet the incremental dollar of revenue is not dropping hard to the bottom line. Operating margin held near 23% and net margin near 16% in the latest annual print, which is respectable for the sector, but the balance sheet is the real constraint: $20.02B of debt against $27.6M of cash, a current ratio of 0.59, and debt-to-equity of 1.42. Operating cash flow of $3.38B covers the franchise, yet free-cash-flow data is blank and the payout ratio sits at 74%, so virtually every incremental dollar is spoken for by capex and the dividend. At $106 the stock clears 22× trailing earnings, 2.44× book, and 14.5× EV/EBITDA for a business whose ROIC is 6.1% and ROE 11%—allowed returns, not economic moats. The recent quarterly run-rate (Q1 2026 revenue $3.43B and NI $806M versus $3.15B/$726M a year earlier) confirms weather- and rate-driven seasonality is intact, not a structural re-rating catalyst.
The valuation synthesis calling the name fully priced near $95 is directionally right; the market is paying a flight-to-safety premium on top of already full utility multiples. Revenue confidence is only moderate and the acceleration is concentrated in cold-weather quarters that will normalize. Insider activity is noise—small awards and routine sales, nothing that signals conviction either way. Macro headwinds (higher-for-longer rates) bite a 3.5% yielder with refinancing needs harder than the narrative admits.
The strongest counter-case is straightforward: regulated utilities are meant to look expensive on growth metrics because the product is duration and predictability. Believers will note that 2025 revenue and the early-2026 winter quarter both beat the prior-year comps, ROE at 11% sits at or above many authorized returns, and $3.38B of operating cash flow dwarfs reported net income, supporting the 3.54% dividend that has compounded for decades. Electrification and grid modernization expand rate base; if WEC executes its capex plan and commissions allow timely recovery, the 5% revenue and 8% earnings CAGRs can persist and the 22× multiple becomes a fair price for bond-like equity rather than a stretch. The narrative layer is thin but durable—no cult, just income mandates and index flows—so the premium need not collapse. I weigh this less heavily because the same cash-flow strength is already capitalized at a 12% premium to the composite fair-value work, leverage leaves little cushion if allowed ROEs compress or rates stay elevated, and there is no evidence of outsized rate-base growth that would justify paying up further from here.
I would flip to neutral or constructive on two concrete developments: a multi-year rate-case outcome that visibly lifts earned ROE above 11% with clearer recovery of the capex pipeline, or a sustained stretch of mid-single-digit EPS growth that drives the payout ratio back under 65% while debt-to-equity trends lower. A decisive break below the mid-$90s on rising Treasury yields without fundamental deterioration would confirm the overvaluation thesis rather than reverse it.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
WEC is a classic regulated electric utility profile: revenue grew from $8.32B (2021) to $9.80B (2025), operating margin expanded from 20.6% to 22.9%, and net income climbed steadily to $1.56B. Cash conversion is genuine — OCF/NI of 1.91x and accruals of -2.9% of assets indicate reported earnings translate into cash, with FCF running $3.38B in 2025 (up from negative in 2021-2022 as capex cycles normalized in the reported figure). Beneish M of -2.45 shows no manipulation flags. Share count is essentially flat (0.6% CAGR), so per-share value is protected. The concern is structural leverage: net debt of ~$20B against $27.6M liquid cash, $1.52B short-term debt exceeding cash on hand, and Altman Z of 1.06 in the distress zone. For a regulated utility with rate-based recovery and reliable cash flows, this leverage is normal industry practice, but it does mean the business is dependent on continued capital-market access and regulatory cooperation. Insider tape is unremarkable: 10 small sales, zero open-market buys, mostly routine option-exercise and award-related disposals. Nothing in the pattern signals concern or conviction.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Regulatory rate case outcomes and allowed ROE across WEC's utility subsidiaries
- Debt maturity ladder and weighted-average cost of debt
- Capex program magnitude and how much is rate-base eligible
- Pension and OPEB obligations not visible in the summary
- Any customer or regional concentration in Wisconsin service territory
The composite FV of $88.71 and signal-adjusted FV of $94.56 both sit below the $106.01 price, implying roughly 11% downside to fair value. The anchored-PE model at $104.80 essentially matches spot, and the EPV floor at $72.62 warns that on a no-growth basis the business is worth ~30% less than today's price. The market is paying a premium for regulated-utility safety and a ~3.5% dividend, but nothing in the fair-value stack says this is cheap. Quality is Solid, which supports a deserved value in the low-to-mid $90s, not $106. The bear case is directly reflected in the math: you are paying ~12% over deserved value for predictability, and the leverage profile (Altman Z in distress zone, typical for rate-base utilities) argues against stretching the multiple further. This is a fine business at a full price; the mispricing edge is absent or slightly negative.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Approved ROE and rate-case outcomes in Wisconsin/Illinois service territories
- Updated 5-year capex plan and rate-base growth guidance
- Interest expense trajectory given leverage and refinancing schedule
- Any regulatory lag or disallowance risk on recent capital deployments
The macro tape is nominally risk-on but fragile (VIX 15, market just off highs, 10y at 4.69%, market PE 25.8). That mixed backdrop tends to keep a low-beta (0.46) regulated utility like WEC bid by default: when equity investors get nervous they rotate toward predictable dividend streams, and when they get greedy WEC just lags quietly rather than getting sold. The active narrative here is the steady-compounder / bond-proxy story, and while intensity is minimal, durability is high and the story is currently working - recent 14% momentum versus a 5% long-term CAGR confirms flows are finding this cohort. The pressure is not decisive. Rates at 4.69% are a structural cap on how far the bond-proxy trade can run, and the bear framing (12% premium to fair value, paying up for safety) is exactly the kind of thing that limits further multiple expansion. Analyst tone on the group is constructive but unexciting - no upgrade cycle, no target-price stampede. Net: a genuine but ordinary tailwind, not a mania. The stock is being gently pushed up by narrative and defensive positioning, with no visible headline risk pressing the other way.
Verify before trusting this (3)
- Whether the 10y breaks meaningfully above 4.75% (would pressure the utility bid)
- Any sector rotation signal - if risk-on regime deepens and holds, WEC likely lags
- Analyst target revisions post next earnings - flat revisions confirm the drift; cuts would break the defensive premium
The world is handing regulated electrics their first real load-growth cycle in twenty years — electrification plus hyperscale compute — and WEC sits in one of the more concentrated data-center build zones in the Midwest. That converts a defensive, GDP-ish business into a legitimate capex-compounder. The offset is the cost of capital: a 4.69% 10-year with a modestly positive curve makes each funded dollar of rate base less accretive, and regulators, not markets, decide how fast the recovery arrives. Net: the demand backdrop has improved structurally, the financing backdrop has worsened, and the two largely fight to a mid-single-digit outcome.
When we made this prediction on Aug 24, 2026, WEC was $107.42. We expect it to be $98.50 by Feb 2027. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 24, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.
Post-Report Due Diligence UNSETTLED
Evidence for a closer look, not a verdict — no score or designation on this page has been changed by it. Items marked material are ones where a conclusion above moves to the other side of the price.
trailing_eps
flips down 5%
adjusted_pe
flips down 5%