Business Description
Popular, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides various retail, mortgage, and commercial banking products and services in Puerto Rico, the United States, and British Virgin Islands. The company provides savings, NOW, money market, and other interest-bearing demand accounts; non-interest bearing demand deposits; and certificates of deposit. It also offers commercial and industrial, commercial multi-family, commercial real estate, and residential mortgage loans; consumer loans, including personal loans, credit cards, automobile loans, home equity lines of credit, and other loans to individual borrowers; construction loans; and lease financing comprising automobile loans/leases. In addition, the company provides investment banking, auto and equipment leasing and financing, broker-dealer, and insurance services; debit cards; and online banking services. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 169 branches; and 616 ATMs in Puerto Rico, 23 ATMs in the Virgin Islands, and 91 ATMs in the United States Mainland. Popular, Inc. was founded in 1893 and is headquartered in Hato Rey, Puerto Rico.
Business History
Generated: Jun 7, 2026 4:11pmPrice Overview
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 4:08pm (5d ago)Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 12.31
Total Equity: $6.25B
Shares: 67,612,847
Total Debt: $1.46B
Cash: $5.03B
EBITDA: $1.01B
Total Debt: $1.46B
Cash: $5.03B
Revenue: $4.43B
Revenue: $4.43B
Revenue: $4.43B
Total Equity: $6.25B
Tax Rate: 17.2%
Equity: $6.25B
Total Debt: $1.46B
Cash: $5.03B
Current Liabilities: $68.00B
Long-Term Debt: $759.58M
Total Debt: $1.46B
Total Equity: $6.25B
Shares: 67,612,847
Shares: 67,612,847
CapEx: -$197.46M
Shares: 67,612,847
Stock Price: $153.07
Net Income: $833.16M
Industry Benchmarks
Deep Analysis
Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 4:14pm (5d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.6B | $3.2B | $3.8B | $4.2B | $4.4B |
| Cost of Revenue | -$28.4M | $381.6M | $1.3B | $1.6B | $1.5B |
| Gross Profit | $2.7B | $2.9B | $2.4B | $2.5B | $2.9B |
| Operating Expenses | $1.4B | $1.6B | $1.8B | $1.7B | $1.9B |
| Operating Income | $1.2B | $1.2B | $675.5M | $796.6M | $1.0B |
| Net Income | $934.9M | $1.1B | $541.3M | $614.2M | $833.2M |
| EBITDA | $1.3B | $1.3B | $737.2M | $856.6M | $1.0B |
| EPS | $11.49 | $14.65 | $7.53 | $8.56 | $12.31 |
| EPS (Diluted) | — | — | — | — | — |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 4:11pm (5d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $18.0B | $6.1B | $7.4B | $6.8B | $5.0B |
| Total Current Assets | $44.7B | $24.4B | $24.7B | $25.5B | $25.7B |
| Total Assets | $75.1B | $67.6B | $70.8B | $73.0B | $75.3B |
| Current Liabilities | $67.6B | $62.2B | $64.2B | $66.2B | $68.0B |
| Long-Term Debt | $988.6M | $886.7M | $986.9M | $896.3M | $759.6M |
| Total Liabilities | $69.1B | $63.5B | $65.6B | $67.4B | $69.1B |
| Total Equity | $6.0B | $4.1B | $5.1B | $5.6B | $6.2B |
| Retained Earnings | $3.0B | $3.8B | $4.2B | $4.6B | $5.2B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 4:14pm (5d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $1.0B | $1.0B | $686.6M | $674.7M | $878.4M |
| Capital Expenditure | -$73.7M | -$103.8M | -$208.0M | -$213.4M | -$197.5M |
| Free Cash Flow | $931.5M | $910.7M | $478.6M | $461.3M | $681.0M |
| Acquisitions (net) | -$155.8M | $219.9M | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Debt Repayment | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividends Paid | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stock Buybacks | -$350.5M | -$631.9M | $-461,000 | -$213.9M | -$504.7M |
| Net Change in Cash | -$62.6M | $41.6M | -$48.6M | $1.8M | -$16.4M |
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 4:09pm (5d ago)| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue |
$3.3B $3.3B – $3.3B
|
$3.6B $3.5B – $3.6B
|
$3.7B $3.7B – $3.8B
|
$3.8B $3.8B – $3.8B
|
| EBITDA |
$1.0B $992.8M – $1.0B
|
$1.1B $1.1B – $1.1B
|
$1.1B $1.1B – $1.1B
|
$1.1B $1.1B – $1.1B
|
| Net Income |
$800.0M $795.2M – $804.7M
|
$1.0B $1.0B – $1.0B
|
$1.1B $1.1B – $1.2B
|
$1.3B $1.2B – $1.3B
|
| EPS | — | — | — | — |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 4:14pm (5d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +22.4% | +16.1% | +11.5% | +5.7% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +6.8% | -14.7% | +4.4% | +15.1% |
| Operating Income Growth | -0.7% | -45.3% | +17.9% | +26.4% |
| Net Income Growth | +17.9% | -50.9% | +13.5% | +35.6% |
| EBITDA Growth | -1.1% | -43.0% | +16.2% | +17.5% |
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 4:12pm (5d ago)All SEC Form 4 codes
- P Purchase
- Open-market or private purchase of shares.
- S Sale
- Open-market or private sale of shares.
- A Award / grant
- Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
- D Return to issuer
- Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
- F In-kind (tax)
- Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
- I Discretionary
- Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
- M Option exercise
- Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
- C Conversion
- Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
- E Short expiration
- Expiration of a short derivative position.
- H Long expiration
- Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
- O OTM exercise
- Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
- X ITM exercise
- Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
- G Gift
- Bona fide gift of securities.
- L Small acquisition
- Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
- W Inheritance
- Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
- Z Voting trust
- Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
- J Other
- Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
- K Equity swap
- Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
- U Tender / buyout
- Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.
Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | Sanchez Alejandro M | S-Sale | 300.00 | $150.36 | $45,108 |
| 2026-05-08 | Soto Myrna | F-InKind | 206.00 | $149.01 | $30,696 |
| 2026-05-08 | Sanchez Alejandro M | A-Award | 906.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Sanchez Alejandro M | F-InKind | 68.00 | $149.01 | $10,133 |
| 2026-05-08 | UNANUE CARLOS | A-Award | 1,477.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Rodriguez Jose Ramon | A-Award | 1,712.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-05-08 | GOODWIN C KIM | A-Award | 906.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-05-08 | CARRION RICHARD L | A-Award | 906.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-05-08 | DeVita Betty K | A-Award | 906.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Chappuis Bertil E. | A-Award | 1,645.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-05-08 | CARRADY ROBERT | A-Award | 1,477.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-05-08 | BALLESTER ALEJANDRO M | A-Award | 906.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Ferre Maria Luisa | A-Award | 1,141.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-05-01 | GONZALEZ-NOGUERA MARIA CRISTINA | S-Sale | 6,200.00 | $148.51 | $920,787 |
| 2026-04-30 | BALLESTER ALEJANDRO M | S-Sale | 23,000.00 | $150.00 | $3.5M |
| 2026-04-27 | Flores Hector Alejandro | F-InKind | 263.00 | $150.62 | $39,613 |
| 2026-04-27 | Rodriguez Adorno Denissa | F-InKind | 87.00 | $150.62 | $13,104 |
| 2026-04-01 | Chappuis Bertil E. | A-Award | 23.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-04-01 | UNANUE CARLOS | A-Award | 141.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-04-01 | Soto Myrna | A-Award | 110.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 4:09pm (5d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | $0.75 | 2026-05-08 | 2026-05-29 | 2026-07-01 |
| 2026-03-18 | $0.75 | 2026-02-26 | 2026-03-18 | 2026-04-01 |
| 2025-12-05 | $0.75 | 2025-11-14 | 2025-12-05 | 2026-01-02 |
| 2025-09-12 | $0.75 | 2025-08-22 | 2025-09-12 | 2025-10-01 |
| 2025-05-29 | $0.70 | 2025-05-08 | 2025-05-29 | 2025-07-01 |
| 2025-03-18 | $0.70 | 2025-02-26 | 2025-03-18 | 2025-04-01 |
| 2024-12-06 | $0.70 | 2024-11-15 | 2024-12-06 | 2025-01-02 |
| 2024-09-13 | $0.62 | 2024-08-23 | 2024-09-13 | 2024-10-01 |
| 2024-05-30 | $0.62 | 2024-05-09 | 2024-05-30 | 2024-07-01 |
| 2024-03-13 | $0.62 | 2024-02-23 | 2024-03-14 | 2024-04-01 |
| 2023-12-06 | $0.62 | 2023-11-16 | 2023-12-07 | 2024-01-02 |
| 2023-09-07 | $0.55 | 2023-08-18 | 2023-09-08 | 2023-10-02 |
| 2023-05-31 | $0.55 | 2023-05-11 | 2023-06-01 | 2023-07-03 |
| 2023-03-17 | $0.55 | 2023-02-28 | 2023-03-20 | 2023-04-03 |
| 2022-12-06 | $0.55 | 2022-11-16 | 2022-12-07 | 2023-01-03 |
| 2022-09-06 | $0.55 | 2022-08-17 | 2022-09-07 | 2022-10-03 |
| 2022-06-01 | $0.55 | 2022-05-12 | 2022-06-02 | 2022-07-01 |
| 2022-03-14 | $0.55 | 2022-02-23 | 2022-03-15 | 2022-04-01 |
| 2021-12-06 | $0.45 | 2021-11-16 | 2021-12-07 | 2022-01-03 |
| 2021-09-09 | $0.45 | 2021-08-20 | 2021-09-10 | 2021-10-01 |
Narrative Economics
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · two lenses
The two lenses tell a coherent story: this is a legitimately well-run franchise (Q73 — clean earnings, real 4.5%/yr share shrinkage, margin recovery underway) trading at a modest ~18-20% discount to a credible $180-185 deserved value (V32). That's a buy, but not a pound-the-table buy — the value gap isn't wide enough to ignore the Puerto Rico concentration risk that neither lens fully prices. My playbook: open a starter position here at $153, roughly 1/3 of target weight. I want the optionality of owning the buyback compounding and the margin recovery if it just grinds higher from here, without committing capital I'd regret if PR macro or rate dynamics turn.
The real add zone is sub-$145 — that's where the value lens flags it as properly attractive and where I'd take it to a full ~3-4% book weight in a diversified sleeve. If it rips through $175 before I get the dip, I'm done adding and just ride the starter; I'm not chasing a 22% upside name into its fair-value band. Catalysts that flip me aggressive: continued OpM expansion back toward 30%+ (closing the gap to the 2022 peak), or any tape-driven selloff in regional banks that takes BPOP down 10%+ on no company-specific news. Catalysts that flip me to the exit: PR fiscal/macro deterioration, or any crack in the earnings-quality picture (OCF/NI slipping, accrual build). Decisive read: own it, don't crowd it.
Popular is a mature regional bank that has executed steadily: revenue has grown from $2.64B (2021) to $4.43B (2025), a ~14% CAGR, while diluted share count has shrunk from 81.4M to 67.6M (-4.5%/yr) — a textbook capital-return profile. Earnings quality looks legitimate: OCF/NI of 1.08x, accruals at -0.1% of assets, and Beneish M of -3.39 all point to clean reporting with no manipulation flags. FCF of $681M in 2025 fully self-funds the dividend and buyback program, and SBC at 0.6% of revenue with a buyback/SBC ratio of 1738% means management is genuinely concentrating per-share value rather than papering over comp.
The profitability arc is the wrinkle: operating margin compressed from 47.1% in 2021 to 18% in 2023 (rate-cycle / deposit-cost pressure typical for regional banks), and is now rebuilding to 22.7% in 2025. Net income dropped from $1.10B (2022) to $541M (2023) and has since recovered to $833M (2025) — still below the 2022 peak. This is a bank that took an earnings hit through the rate cycle and is climbing back, not a structurally broken franchise. The Altman Z of -0.39 'distress' reading is a false positive — the Z-score is calibrated for industrial firms and is essentially meaningless for banks, whose business model is built on leverage.
Insider tape is neutral-to-slightly-negative: 5 sales totaling ~$4.9M against zero open-market buys, with two notable sales (Ballester $3.5M, Gonzalez-Noguera $920K). Nothing screams alarm — looks like routine post-vest liquidation — but no insider is stepping up to buy either. Overall this is a competently managed mature bank with credible earnings, real per-share compounding, and a recovering margin profile.
Verify before trusting this (6)
- Tangible book value per share trajectory and CET1 capital ratio — the real solvency metrics for a bank (Altman Z is not applicable)
- Net interest margin trend and deposit beta — what's actually driving the margin recovery
- Non-performing loan ratio and reserve coverage — credit quality is the key quality variable for any bank
- Geographic / segment split between Puerto Rico (Banco Popular de PR) and U.S. mainland (Popular Bank) operations
- Exposure to Puerto Rico government debt and any remaining fiscal-crisis legacy positions
- Whether the $25.6B 'liquid cash' figure is operating cash or includes customer deposits / securities portfolio (the cash/mktcap framing is misleading for a bank)
The e2e composite pegs fair value at $187.99 and signal-adjusted at $202.08, with both methods (EPV $185.71, anchored-PE $190.26) clustering in a tight $185-$202 band — that consistency is reassuring and not a runaway. Against the $153.07 price, that's a ~22-32% implied upside. I haircut modestly for Puerto Rico single-territory concentration and earnings still ~25% below the 2022 peak, landing on a deserved value closer to $180-$185, which still leaves ~18-20% upside and a real margin of safety.
What's priced in: the market is treating BPOP like a structurally challenged territory bank that deserves a discount to mainland peers. What's not fully priced in: the disciplined ~4.5%/yr buyback (real share count reduction, not SBC theater), clean earnings quality (OCF/NI 1.08x), and the margin recovery already underway. This isn't 'priced for perfection' in any direction — it's priced for stagnation, and a solid-quality bank executing buybacks shouldn't trade at stagnation multiples. Not a fat pitch, but a respectable gap.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- NIM trajectory and deposit costs in next 1-2 quarters — confirms margin recovery thesis underpinning EPV
- PR credit metrics (NPLs, charge-offs) for any deterioration that would re-rate deserved value lower
- Pace and price of buybacks — confirms management still views shares as cheap
- Any guidance change on normalized ROE/ROTCE — drives the anchored-PE math