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AGING Analysis Report
Aug 27, 2026
26 days ago · 100% complete
For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page

What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for TechnipFMC plc (FTI) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.

Our current read (analysis of 2026-09-22): Designation Low · Gem Score -29 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 42 · Value -77 · Sentiment 29 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $72.12 vs $75.70 at analysis

Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable reference-name attribute you can cite):

  • profile-header / price-overview — company profile, live quote, market cap
  • extended-analysisthe core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memo
  • future-predictions — our forward price-band predictions
  • market-narrative / ai-findings / gpt-critique — narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)
  • Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers): price-history, income-trend, key-metrics, financials (statement tables), insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.

More for machine readers: site briefing at /llms.txt · any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER · raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds); every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.

TechnipFMC plc

FTI NYSE
Energy · Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
Newcastle upon Tyne, TX NE6 3PL, United Kingdom technipfmc.com Updated Aug 26, 8:19am
Price
$75.20
Market Cap
$29.5B
Employees
22,000
Beta
0.74
Avg Volume
3,190,075
Last Dividend
$0.20
CEO
Mr. Douglas J. Pferdehirt

TechnipFMC plc is an energy technology and services company that provides integrated solutions for offshore and subsea oil and gas development. TechnipFMC plc focuses on subsea production systems, subsea field infrastructure, installation services, and life-of-field support, helping operators design, build, and maintain complex deep-water projects. The company also supplies surface technologies, including wellheads, trees, pressure-control equipment, and measurement solutions used in oil and gas operations. Its business is organized around two core segments, Subsea and Surface Technologies, which serve customers across major energy-producing regions worldwide. TechnipFMC plc plays a significant role in the market by combining engineering, equipment, and project execution capabilities for traditional energy infrastructure.

Runs with full report Generated: Aug 27, 2026 4:49am
Price Overview
Price at report time
$75.70
as of Aug 27, 3:30am (26d ago)
Change · Aug 27
+0.50 (+0.66%)
Day Range
$73.79 – $76.53
52-Week Range
$35.29 – $80.55
50-Day MA
$71.66
200-Day MA
$63.17
Volume
1,842,184.00
Right now · live
Log in to get the live feed
Members see the real-time price and the move since this report (over 26d).
Share Structure
Outstanding 392,800,000.00
Float 386,340,747.00
Free Float 98.4%
High free float — 98.4% of shares trade freely, ~1.6% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Aug 27, 2026 6:33am (26d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Aug 27, 2026 6:33am (26d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
TD Twelve Data statement HEX SEC filing
Industry comparison last run: Aug 27, 2026 4:41am
P/E · trailing (TTM) (Price per dollar of earnings over the past year — not a run-rate or forward P/E)
HEX
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
32.70
Stock Price: $75.20
EPS (Diluted): 2.30
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
HEX
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
9.27
Stock Price: $75.20
Total Equity: $3.41B
Shares: 419,700,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
HEX
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
16.19
Market Cap: $29.49B
Total Debt: $491.20M
Cash: $1.03B
EBITDA: $1.88B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
HEX
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$30.4B
Market Cap: $29.49B
Total Debt: $491.20M
Cash: $1.03B
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
HEX
Gross Profit / Revenue
Gross Profit: N/A
Revenue: $9.93B
Missing from API: Gross Profit
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
HEX
Operating Income / Revenue
14.5%
Operating Income: $1.44B
Revenue: $9.93B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
HEX
Net Income / Revenue
9.7%
Net Income: $963.90M
Revenue: $9.93B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
HEX
Net Income / Total Equity
28.3%
Net Income: $963.90M
Total Equity: $3.41B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
HEX
NOPAT / Invested Capital
39.0%
Operating Income: $1.44B
Tax Rate: 23.9%
Equity: $3.41B
Total Debt: $491.20M
Cash: $1.03B
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
HEX
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
1.13
Current Assets: $5.55B
Current Liabilities: $4.91B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
HEX
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.13
Short-Term Debt: $34.30M
Long-Term Debt: $456.90M
Total Debt: $491.20M
Total Equity: $3.41B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
HEX
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$23.67
Revenue: $9.93B
Shares: 419,700,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
HEX
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$8.11
Total Equity: $3.41B
Shares: 419,700,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
HEX
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$3.45
Operating CF: $1.76B
CapEx: -$317.20M
Shares: 419,700,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
TD
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
0.3%
Last Dividend: $0.20
Stock Price: $75.20
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
HEX
Dividends Paid / Net Income
8.5%
Dividends Paid: -$82.30M
Net Income: $963.90M
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Aug 27, 2026 4:41am
Compares FTI against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 27, 2026 6:33am (26d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $6.4B $6.7B $7.8B $9.1B $9.9B
Cost of Revenue $5.8B $6.5B $7.4B
Gross Profit $907.1M $1.3B $1.7B
Operating Expenses $531.2M $624.8M $564.2M
Operating Income $183.4M $375.9M $658.2M $1.2B $1.4B
Net Income $13.3M -$107.2M $56.2M $842.9M $963.9M
EBITDA $568.8M $753.1M $1.0B $1.6B $1.9B
EPS $0.03 $-0.24 $0.13 $1.96 $2.34
EPS (Diluted) $0.03 $-0.24 $0.12 $1.91 $2.30
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 27, 2026 3:30am (26d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $1.3B $1.1B $951.7M $1.2B $1.0B
Total Current Assets $5.3B $5.0B $5.2B $5.5B $5.5B
Total Assets $10.0B $9.4B $9.7B $9.9B $10.1B
Current Liabilities $3.9B $4.2B $4.5B $4.9B $4.9B
Long-Term Debt $1.8B $1.0B $1.0B $659.1M $456.9M
Total Liabilities $6.6B $6.2B $6.5B $6.7B $6.7B
Total Equity $3.4B $3.3B $3.2B $3.1B $3.4B
Retained Earnings -$4.9B -$5.0B -$5.0B -$4.3B -$3.8B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 27, 2026 6:33am (26d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $781.3M $352.1M $693.0M $961.0M $1.8B
Capital Expenditure -$191.7M -$157.9M -$225.2M -$281.6M -$317.2M
Free Cash Flow $589.6M $194.2M $467.8M $679.4M $1.4B
Acquisitions (net)
Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) -$297.8M -$390.8M $0 $0
Dividends Paid $0 $0 -$43.5M -$85.9M -$82.3M
Stock Buybacks $0
Net Change in Cash -$3.5B -$270.3M -$105.4M $206.0M -$125.8M
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 27, 2026 6:33am (26d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +4.6% +16.8% +16.1% +9.4%
Gross Profit Growth +41.4% +34.2%
Operating Income Growth +105.0% +75.1% +75.8% +24.1%
Net Income Growth -906.0% +152.4% +1,399.8% +14.4%
EBITDA Growth +32.4% +37.6% +49.6% +21.2%
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 26, 2026 8:19am (26d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-08-18 $0.05
2026-05-19 $0.05
2026-03-17 $0.05
2025-11-18 $0.05
2025-08-19 $0.05
2025-05-20 $0.05
2025-03-18 $0.05
2024-11-19 $0.05
2024-08-20 $0.05
2024-05-20 $0.05
2024-03-18 $0.05
2023-11-20 $0.05
2023-08-21 $0.05
2020-03-23 $0.10
2019-11-18 $0.10
2019-08-19 $0.10
2019-05-20 $0.10
2019-03-18 $0.10
2018-11-19 $0.10
2018-08-20 $0.10
0Company Classification 1Industry Landscape 2Company Momentum 3Forward Projection 4aDCF Valuation 4bEarnings Power Value 4cAnchored PE 4dReverse DCF 4eRevenue-Based DCF 4fAnchored P/S 4gScenario Analysis 4hDividend Discount Model 4iBook Value Analysis 4jInsider Activity 4fCash Flow Quality 4gDebt Maturity Risk 4hMacro Environment 4iSector Intelligence 4jRevenue Confidence 4kSensitivity Analysis 4lSector Demand Cycle 5AI Investigation 5bThesis Evaluation 6Valuation Synthesis
computed not applicable 18 computed · 6 not applicable
Risk : Reward — upside vs downside from this company's own quarters
Computed 2026-09-12 02:02
0.1 : 1 +1σ upside vs −1σ downside, from this company's own quarterly history
A +1σ run of quarters pays +6%; a −1σ run costs 66%. Ratio 0.1:1 (μ 11.2%, σ 17.4% floored by sector, 16 pairs).
Older method (repeat-worst-quarter): -0.7 : 1
CaseGrowthMarginFair valuevs price ($75.70)
Bull — recovery +11% 13.0% $49.69 -34%
Base — stabilizes +8% 11.3% $38.83 -49%
Bear — keeps slipping +4% 9.6% $29.76 -61%
Stress — last quarter repeats +6% 12.4% $40.72 -46%
Upside — a +1σ run of quarters (v2) +29% 12.4% $79.94 +6%
Stress — a −1σ run of quarters (v2) -6% 12.0% $25.80 -66%
The next quarters keep the trajectory of the worst recent matched quarter (ending 2025-12-31) — growth stays at 6.3% and margins bend by the same profit-vs-revenue ratio (×1.10). Stress is a trajectory, not a prediction — it answers "what if the ship's current heading simply continues," which history says is the case to respect.
Why this is appearing: this company files quarterly, so its recent trajectory could be measured rather than assumed — the engine matched Jun 2026, Mar 2026 against the same quarters one year earlier and found revenue +10.2% · operating income +33.7% · net income +51.4% year-over-year. That measured heading is what the stress case extends forward. Of those, the stress case extends the worst matched quarter — the one ending Dec 31, 2025 (revenue +6.3%, operating income +18.6% YoY) — not the average. Data measured through Jun 30, 2026 — this card recalculates automatically when the next quarterly filing is ingested. Companies without quarterly filings (many foreign listings) never show this card: with no measured trajectory, there is nothing honest to repeat.
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for FTI — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Growth Outlook
Analyzed 2026-08-27 06:42

The question every valuation on this page silently assumes: is this company likely to grow? Judged forward — the business, its category, the world — against what's already printed.

Growing Backlog-covered subsea execution is delivering double-digit revenue growth and far faster margin/earnings expansion while the broader equipment-and-services industry shrinks — a genuine share-gain shape, though the structural rung cannot plausibly deliver the ~28% the price implies. conf 7/10
Share gain Category shrinking · Category median recent growth is roughly -0.9% with industry revenue YoY -1.4%, earnings CAGR -10.4%, and operating margins down 9.1pp over three years. FTI grew revenue ~9-10% with operating income +33.7% and net income +51.4% — outperforming on both volume and margin simultaneously.
Next 2 quarters
Growing
Contracted backlog plus a five-quarter beat cadence makes the next two prints highly predictable: mid-to-high single digit revenue growth with continued Subsea margin conversion and outsized earnings leverage. Surface Technologies is the softer piece but too small to change the direction.
↑ above expectations
Year 1
Growing
Full-year revenue growth in the high-single to low-double digits with earnings growing considerably faster as Subsea margins hold near current levels; backlog coverage for the fiscal year is largely locked, so the main variance is timing of vessel campaigns, not demand.
≈ inline with expectations
Years 2–3
Holding
Beyond the backlog window the driver shifts from execution to order intake, and there the evidence is genuinely mixed: deepwater breakevens support continued sanctioning, but category revenue is already negative, the quarterly trend is decelerating, and the margin step-up laps itself. Earnings power likely holds at a structurally higher level than 2021-23 rather than compounding at the recent rate.
↓ below expectations
The creme: each rung's call measured against what's already printed (vs analyst estimates · vs guidance / FY consensus · vs price-implied growth) — expectations in print are already in the price, so only the variant margin can pay. Hover a rung's chip for the margin read.
Growth drivers
76 Subsea backlog conversion with visible multi-year coverage — Revenue +10.2% matched-quarter YoY with operating income +33.7% and net income +51.4% — growth is coming through at expanding margins, the signature of a backlog booked at better pricing and executed via the integrated iEPCI model rather than volume chasing. Backlog gives unusual forward visibility for an energy-services name: the next 4-6 quarters of Subsea revenue are largely already contracted, which is why the trajectory has held while the industry's revenue turned negative.
69 Documented share gain against a contracting industry — Recent company YoY +9.4% against industry -1.4% (a +10.8pp gap), and margins expanding while industry operating margins compressed -9.1pp over three years. Consolidation of subsea EPC into two credible integrators plus the direct-award/alliance model with majors means FTI captures scope (SPS + SURF) that previously went to competitors — a structural share mechanism, not a pricing giveaway.
51 Deepwater cost curve resilience supports continued FID flow — Offshore breakevens have fallen enough that Brazil, Guyana, West Africa and Gulf projects remain sanctionable through the current oil price band; majors are funding subsea tiebacks and brownfield expansions to offset base decline. Tiebacks are short-cycle, higher-margin, and favor the incumbent with installed base and life-of-field service — a repeatable annuity layer beneath the lumpy greenfield awards.
38 Persistent, wide beat cadence indicates conservative internal guidance — Five consecutive EPS beats of +14%, +14%, +35%, +15%, +14%. A streak that consistent and that large is not noise — it reflects project execution and margin realization running ahead of what the company itself is guiding, which raises the odds the next two prints clear the bar again.
Growth risks
60 Cycle-peak / order intake air pocket — The measured quarterly trend is already flagged 'decelerating' and the sector cycle reads 'steady' with category median growth ~-0.9%. Backlog protects revenue, not orders. If 2026-27 FID activity thins — a plausible outcome if operators prioritize buybacks and discipline over new deepwater sanctioning — the growth engine quietly rolls over 6-8 quarters later, after the current backlog burns off.
58 Price-implied growth is far above any defensible structural path — Reverse-DCF requires ~27.9% growth versus a house projection of 7.5%. Even a generous view of subsea share gains and margin mix lands in high-single to low-teens revenue with earnings growth moderating as the margin step-up laps. The gap is not a business problem, but it means the structural rung is nearly certain to underdeliver against what is already printed.
33 Mega-project execution and lump-sum risk — Integrated awards concentrate schedule, vessel, and supply-chain risk on FTI's balance sheet. One troubled large project can erase several quarters of margin expansion, and the current earnings beat streak sets a high internal bar that leaves little cushion for a charge.
28 Industry-wide margin compression and macro capex sensitivity — Industry operating margins -9.1pp and earnings CAGR -10.4% show pricing power is not a sector trait; FTI's expansion is company-specific and reversible. Macro headwinds with 10y at 4.64 raise operators' hurdle rates on long-payback offshore developments.
Two forces are pulling in opposite directions and FTI sits on the favorable side of both for now. Global oil demand is still growing modestly while conventional onshore and shale base decline accelerates, pushing majors back toward deepwater as the lowest-cost incremental barrel — subsea tiebacks and brownfield expansion are the cheapest reserve additions available, which is precisely FTI's franchise. Against that, the broader oilfield equipment industry is deflating: North American pressure pumping and land activity are shrinking, dragging the whole category's revenue and margins down, which is why the industry aggregate looks sick while offshore-levered specialists do not. Energy transition capital is real but is displacing marginal long-payback greenfield projects, not the 3-5 year-payback subsea tiebacks operators are sanctioning today. The practical implication: FTI's growth is offshore-cycle growth, and the offshore cycle is mid-to-late innings rather than early — durable through the backlog window, dependent on order intake beyond it.
Growth position composite +26
ShrinkingStallingHoldingGrowingAccelerating
70Next 2 quarters · Growing
70Year 1 · Growing
50Years 2–3 · Holding
+26Composite (−100…+100)
A research prediction, not advice. Forward-graded: each rung is scored against the prints that follow it. Not an input to the GEM designation — track record first.
Claude Reading
Independent analyst synthesis · claude-opus-4-7 · generated 2026-08-27 06:33:10
Verdict Fairly valued around $75 — synthesis fair value of $61 is too low given margin step-up, but insider selling and cycle-timing risk cap upside; hold, don't chase, revisit after Q3'26 margin confirmation.

Looking at the raw quarterly trajectory first: revenue went from $2.35B (Q3'24) to $2.76B (Q2'26) — that's ~17% over seven quarters, or ~10% annualized, not exactly super-cycle acceleration. But the margin story is real: net margin has stepped from 6.4% (Q1'25) to 13.1% (Q2'26), and the last two prints ($260.5M and $362.7M NI) show genuine operating leverage. Annualizing Q2'26 gets you ~$1.45B NI, putting forward P/E closer to 20x, not the trailing 32.7x. FCF of $1.45B on a $29.5B market cap is a ~4.9% FCF yield with net cash of $540M on the balance sheet — that is not expensive for a business compounding earnings this fast, and ROIC of 39% is genuinely impressive for oilfield equipment. Debt/equity of 0.13 means this is not a levered cyclical bet.

Where I part company with the synthesis: the $61.58 DCF fair value looks anchored to trailing-year earnings and a mid-cycle multiple assumption that doesn't credit the margin regime shift already visible in the last two quarters. If Q2'26 run-rate NI holds, you're paying ~20x forward on a company with $1.45B FCF, net cash, subsea backlog visibility, and 30%+ ROE. The "16.8% overvalued" verdict implicitly assumes mean-reversion in margins that the quarterly data actively contradicts. That said, the narrative model is right that this is a cyclical timing bet — subsea equipment is not a secular grower, and the incremental margin expansion has to come from somewhere (mix, pricing, backlog) that reverses when the capex cycle rolls. The pre-flight framing of "mature earner" understates the cyclicality; calling this a traditional industrial glosses over that FTI printed a *loss* in 2022 and $56M NI in 2023.

The contrarian case worth taking seriously: subsea capex cycles have historically peaked 2-3 years into acceleration, and we're already 2+ years in. Insider activity is mixed-to-bearish under the hood — the "net buying" tag is misleading because the large A-Awards (302k and 1.6M shares) are grants, not open-market purchases, while the actual cash decisions were S-Sales in May 2026 and one modest 6,365 share purchase in August. That's insiders taking chips off the table into strength, not accumulating. The decelerating revenue trend flag matters: Q1'26 was $2.49B vs Q3'25 $2.65B — the Q2'26 jump to $2.76B could be lumpy project revenue rather than trend. Macro headwinds (oil price sensitivity, energy transition capex reallocation risk from majors) are the tail risk the bull case doesn't price.

Net: I think the synthesis is directionally too bearish because it doesn't weight the margin step-up, but the market-narrative team is right that the premium is a cycle-timing bet, not a re-rating. On forward numbers FTI is roughly fairly valued in the $70-80 range, with fair value probably $72-78 depending on whether you believe Q2'26 margins hold. I'd dissent from "fully priced at $61 fair value" — that's too low — but I won't call it undervalued either. The asymmetry from here is not attractive: upside requires margins to hold AND backlog to keep converting AND oil capex to extend through 2027-28; downside is a standard cyclical roll where margins compress 300-400 bps and the multiple compresses to 15x, taking the stock to the mid-$50s. I'd want to see the Q3'26 print confirm the 12-13% margin before adding, and I'd trim into further strength above $85.

GPT Reading
Independent reading · gpt-5.4 · generated 2026-08-27 06:33:27
Verdict Slightly overvalued at $75 — excellent business momentum and balance sheet, but the stock already discounts sustained 12%+ margins and a benign offshore cycle; fair value looks closer to $62-$68.

What stands out is that TechnipFMC is no longer a turnaround story in the income statement, but the stock is still being priced like earnings are about to inflect much further. The operating business has clearly improved: annual revenue rose from $6.7B in 2022 to $9.93B in 2025, while operating income went from $375.9M to $1.44B, expanding operating margin from 5.6% to 14.5%. The quarterly trend reinforces that this is not a one-off: over the last eight quarters revenue climbed from $2.35B in 2024’s third quarter to $2.76B in 2026’s second quarter, and net margin has mostly held in a healthy 9.5%-13.1% range after dipping to 6.4% in 2025’s first quarter. That is the picture of a business with better project mix, better execution, and probably a structurally improved subsea market. Add in the balance sheet — $1.03B cash against just $491M debt — and this is a high-quality cyclical industrial, not a fragile oilfield services balance-sheet story.

The problem is valuation versus the level of growth now showing up. At $29.5B market cap on 2025 net income of $964M, investors are paying about 31x trailing earnings for a company whose recent quarterly revenue growth is good but not explosive: 9.4% year over year in the latest quarter, with sequential growth from $2.49B to $2.76B but off a base that already reflects recovery. Even if I annualize the last two quarters’ earnings power, you get something like $1.25B-$1.35B of net income, which still leaves the stock around 22x-24x a fairly optimistic forward run-rate. For a capital-cycle energy equipment name, that is rich. The cash flow helps the case more than earnings do — $1.45B of free cash flow on $29.5B market cap is roughly a 4.9% FCF yield — but that is not cheap enough to ignore cycle risk, especially when EV/revenue is above 3x and EV/EBITDA above 16x. Those multiples imply that current margins are durable and possibly still heading up, which feels like the market is paying in advance for a late-cycle scenario.

The data also suggest the easy part of the rerating has already happened. From 2023 to 2025, revenue grew 27% while net income exploded from $56M to $964M; that kind of earnings CAGR is mostly margin normalization, not a repeatable growth algorithm. Once a business has already gone from near-breakeven to nearly 10% net margin, future upside depends much more on sustaining those margins through project cycles than on simply filling factories and spreading fixed costs. That is where I part ways with any purely bullish read. The current ratio at 1.13 is fine, the ROE at 28% and ROIC at 39% look excellent, but those returns are being measured off a still-modest equity base of $3.41B after years of restructuring and cyclical trough conditions. I would not capitalize those headline returns as if this were a software platform with recurring economics; they are good industrial-cycle returns at a favorable point in the cycle.

The best case against my caution is straightforward: this may be one of the rare oil-services-adjacent names that deserves a premium because it has become cleaner, less levered, and more cash generative just as offshore development spending enjoys multiyear visibility. Latest quarterly net income of $363M on $2.76B revenue is not just “recovered”; it suggests a business potentially exiting 2026 at a $1.4B+ annual earnings run-rate. If that happens, the P/E compresses quickly into the high teens or low 20s without any stock decline. The balance sheet is underlevered, free cash flow conversion is strong, insider activity has at least one recent open-market purchase, and if management uses $1.45B of annual FCF for buybacks, per-share earnings can keep compounding even on moderate revenue growth. A bull would say the market is not paying for peak earnings, but for a structurally improved offshore value chain where integrated subsea players command better pricing and execution economics than in prior cycles.

What would change my mind is evidence that this is still early, not late, in the margin and cash-flow upgrade. If the next two quarters can hold revenue above $2.7B while keeping net margin at 12%-13%, and if annual free cash flow moves from $1.45B toward $1.7B-$1.9B without balance-sheet strain, then the current price starts to look more defendable. Conversely, if revenue stalls around $2.5B-$2.6B or net margin slips back toward 9%-10%, the premium multiple has no cushion and I would expect a re-rating toward the low $60s, much closer to where the current cash generation actually supports the equity.

Grok Reading
Independent reading · grok-4.5 · generated 2026-08-27 06:33:54
Verdict Overvalued at $75 vs ~$63 intrinsic; quality cash compounder already fully priced for the offshore cycle

The numbers show a genuine operational reset, not cosmetic earnings. TechnipFMC went from $6.4B revenue and essentially breakeven net income in 2021 to $9.93B and $964M of NI in 2025, with operating income scaling from $183M to $1.44B. Free cash flow of $1.45B on only $317M of capex is the standout: this is a capital-light cash machine relative to the installed base, not a heavy reinvestment story. Net cash of roughly $540M, debt-to-equity of 0.13, ROIC of 39%, and ROE of 28% confirm the restructuring worked. Quarterly progression is constructive—margins lifted from 6.4% in early 2025 to 13.1% in the most recent quarter on $2.76B of revenue and $363M of NI—so the earnings power is still climbing in absolute dollars. The market is not wrong that the company is a better business than it was five years ago.

Where the story breaks is price. At $75.2 and a $29.5B market cap, the stock trades at 33x trailing earnings, 9.3x book, 3.2x sales, and 16x EV/EBITDA. For a mature oilfield equipment and subsea services name classified as a cyclical late-stage earner, those multiples embed continued mid-teens earnings growth and durable offshore capex. Revenue CAGR of 12.7% is solid but the recent YoY revenue print is 9.4% with a decelerating quarterly trend flagged explicitly; the 314% earnings CAGR is almost entirely base-effect from the 2022–23 trough and cannot be extrapolated. Paying 33x for a company whose DCF-style composite lands near $63 implies the market is capitalizing a multi-year deepwater super-cycle that is already partially visible in the backlog and already in the multiple. Dividend yield of 0.27% offers no valuation floor. The premium over ~$63 fair value is a pure timing bet on energy-major FID momentum, not on further ROIC expansion from here.

The strongest counter-case is that high-teens-to-20% FCF yield on enterprise value is rare in energy services, the balance sheet can fund buybacks or bolt-ons without stress, and subsea integration gives FTI pricing power peers lack as majors lock in long-cycle projects through 2028–30. If backlog converts cleanly and margins hold near the recent 11–13% net range, forward earnings could grow into the multiple within two years and the “overvalued” label would look premature. I weigh that less heavily because secondary signals already show macro headwinds and decelerating revenue confidence, the narrative durability is explicitly moderate and cycle-dependent, and oilfield service history is littered with peak-multiple traps when capex pauses. Insider activity is mostly awards and modest sales with one small purchase—not a strong confirmatory buy signal at these levels.

What flips me: sustained quarterly revenue re-acceleration above 12–15% YoY with net margins holding above 12%, or clear multi-year backlog disclosures that de-risk 2027–28 cash flows enough to justify mid-20s forward PE. A sharp oil-price or FID freeze that cuts FCF below $1B would confirm the downside case faster.

Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Each AI above independently stated a direction (undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued) and how strongly it believes it (conviction, 0–5). We combine those into a Bull-Bear Index on a 0–10 scale: 5 is neutral, 10 is maximum bullish (undervalued at full conviction), 0 is maximum bearish. We compute the score ourselves with the same arithmetic for every seat — the models never grade their own bullishness — so the three are directly comparable. Δ shows how far each seat sits from the panel average of 2.7; a large Δ marks the dissenting voice, usually the one worth reading.
Claude claude-opus-4-7 5.0
fairly valued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +2.3 vs panel · self: 5.0
GPT gpt-5.4 2.0
overvalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ -0.7 vs panel · self: 4.0
Grok grok-4.5 1.0
overvalued · conviction 4/5 · Δ -1.7 vs panel · self: 3.0
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-08-27 06:45:31
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality — wait for a dip 7/10
Legitimately turned-around subsea leader, but at $75.70 you're paying full peak-cycle price with no margin of safety and insiders exiting into the strength.
The cruxWhether the deepwater capex cycle sustains peak subsea margins (14.5% op) uninterrupted through 2030 — because that's exactly what's priced in today.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from FTI's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionShare Count Shrinking
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The four lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+42
Solid
edge √Σ 119 · risk √Σ 74 · conf 7/10

TechnipFMC has executed a clean operational turnaround. Revenue grew from $6.40B (2021) to $9.93B (2025), operating margin climbed from 2.9% to 14.5%, net income went from essentially breakeven ($13M in 2021, a $107M loss in 2022) to $964M, and FCF more than doubled to $1.45B. Balance sheet is in a net cash position of $541M and Altman Z of 3.64 puts it in the safe zone. OCF/NI of 14x and accruals of -5.7% of assets indicate reported earnings are backed by cash, not accrual gymnastics.

Strengths 4
m70
Margin expansion is real and sustained
Operating margin has stepped up every year from 2.9% (2021) to 5.6%, 8.4%, 12.7%, 14.5% - a four-year monotonic climb reflecting subsea backlog pricing and mix, not a one-off.
m65
Cash generation validates the P&L
FCF of $1.45B in 2025 with OCF/NI at 14x and negative accruals (-5.7% of assets) means earnings are cash-backed. No red flags on the mechanical earnings-quality screens.
m55
Per-share value concentrating
Diluted shares fell from 454.6M (2021) to 419.7M (2025), roughly -2% CAGR. Net buyer of its own stock while also holding $540M net cash - disciplined capital allocation.
m45
Balance sheet supports the cycle
Net cash $541M, Altman Z 3.64, self-funding from $1.45B FCF. No survival math to worry about even if the offshore cycle rolls.
Concerns 3
m55
Cyclical end-market, not a compounder profile
Subsea equipment and services revenue is tied to offshore E&P capex cycles. The 2021-22 trough (breakeven earnings, $107M loss) shows what a down-cycle looks like; today's 14.5% op margin is closer to peak than trough.
m40
Insider selling dominates the tape
20 sells vs 1 buy over 12 months, $77M sold vs $500K bought. The CEO alone sold ~$45M in March 2026. The single director purchase ($500K by Mullins) is directional but small against the wave of selling.
m30
Gross margin data gap
GM% reported as 0 in 2021 and 2025 in the trajectory table - likely a reporting/classification artifact rather than reality, but worth confirming from filings before drawing trend conclusions on GM.
This is a legitimately well-run subsea franchise mid-cycle - operationally the numbers all point the right way, cash quality is high, and management is retiring shares rather than issuing them. I would not call it a fortress because it sits in a capex-driven cycle and the 2021-22 results are a reminder of what the trough looks like; the heavy insider selling adds a small note of caution about how insiders view current conditions. Solid, improving, cash-generative - but not something I would put in the elite-durability bracket.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Subsea backlog composition, duration, and pricing terms (fixed vs escalator) to gauge margin durability
  • Customer concentration - share of revenue from top 3-5 IOC/NOC customers
  • Whether the 2021 and 2025 gross margin readings of 0 are a data artifact or a reclassification
  • Buyback authorization size and pace vs SBC issuance to confirm net share reduction is structural
  • Any 10b5-1 plans behind the March 2026 CEO sales and whether they are scheduled or discretionary
Valuation / Mispricing
-77
Rich
edge √Σ 20 · risk √Σ 122 · conf 7/10
price $75.70 vs deserved ~$63, roughly -17% (paying a ~20% premium) - no margin of safety, modestly rich. attractive below $55.00

The composite fair value lands at $61.58 and the signal-adjusted FV at $63.02, both implying roughly -17% downside from $75.70. The internals are telling: DCF pegs it at $40.97 and EPV floor at $24.10, while the anchored P/E method throws out a runaway $140.26 that is clearly extrapolating peak subsea margins across a cycle - I discount that method heavily. Averaging the two grounded methods (DCF and EPV) gets you to the low-$30s; even generously weighting the anchored-PE to reflect a genuinely improved franchise, ~$60-65 is the honest deserved range. Earnings quality is high so no haircut, and the Solid business grade supports the upper end of that range - but not a premium above it. What is priced in at $75.70: sustained record deepwater capex through 2030, continued margin expansion, and no cyclical air pocket. That is the bull case fully cashed in advance. The bear case (energy-transition capex reallocation, mega-project execution slippage, cycle peak in 12-24 months) gets no discount at this price. Heavy insider selling is a small tell that folks closest to the numbers do not see obvious upside from here. This is a good business at a full price - the mispricing edge is negative, not positive.

Cheap signals 1
m20
Business quality supports upper deserved range
Solid quality grade (42), expanding margins, high earnings quality, and buybacks justify the $60s FV rather than the $40s - but not a premium above it.
Rich / priced-in 4
m68
Composite FV ~17% below price
Signal-adjusted FV $63.02 vs $75.70 spot implies -17% - the market is already paying for the late-cycle upside case.
m72
Cash-flow methods scream expensive
DCF $40.97 and EPV $24.10 both sit dramatically below price; even weighting them modestly drags deserved value into the $40s-50s.
m55
Anchored P/E of $140 is a runaway
The anchored-PE output nearly 2x the price is extrapolating peak subsea margins across a cycle and should be discounted heavily, not treated as fair value.
m45
Late-cycle setup with no discount
Cyclical-late-stage narrative plus 2021-22 trough memory argues for a cycle haircut, but the price embeds sustained peak conditions through 2030.
Fully priced. The composite says -17% and the two cash-flow-grounded methods (DCF $41, EPV $24) say meaningfully worse than that - the anchored-PE $140 is a distraction. I like the business, but at $75.70 I am being asked to underwrite a peak cycle extending unbroken to 2030 with no margin of safety and insiders selling into the print. I need this closer to $55 to get interested, and a real cycle wobble could easily send it there.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • 2025-2026 subsea order backlog conversion cadence and book-to-bill
  • mega-project execution charges or cost overruns in recent segment results
  • management guidance on mid-cycle vs peak margin sustainability
  • pace of buybacks vs insider selling in latest filings
  • customer capex guidance from major E&P clients for 2026-2027
General Sentiment
+29
Tailwind
tail √Σ 80 · head √Σ 49 · conf 6/10

The prevailing narrative for FTI is a constructive one: record deepwater and subsea capex commitments from majors through 2030, with FTI framed as the essential integrated provider. Intensity and durability are only moderate and cult factor is low, so this is not a mania - but it is a working bull story with fresh reinforcement from the Guyana FPSO headline, which keeps deepwater capex tangible and in the tape. Momentum is strong positive (12.7% CAGR, improving leverage), which tends to attract trend followers and keep analyst tone constructive. With beta 0.74, FTI is only modestly exposed to the broader tape anyway, and the current risk-on regime (VIX 15.2, S&P near highs) is a mild positive rather than a driver. The offsetting pressure is the late-cycle archetype: the market knows this is a cyclical peaking story, and any oil-price wobble or energy-transition headline can flip sentiment quickly. Rates at 4.64% and a rich market PE are a background drag on all equities but land lightly here given low beta and cash-flow visibility. Net: a real but not decisive tailwind - the story is working, nothing is breaking, but the narrative has limited room to expand without a genuine capex-cycle surprise.

Tailwinds 4
m55
Working subsea capex narrative
The deepwater/subsea capex-through-2030 story is intact and moderate-intensity, positioning FTI as the integrated winner. It is the dominant frame on the name and is actively pulling in flows.
m45
Strong price momentum
12.7% CAGR and improving balance sheet keep trend and quality-momentum buyers engaged, reinforcing the bull narrative without needing new catalysts.
m30
Guyana FPSO headline reinforcement
The XOM Guyana startup story is a fresh, concrete data point that validates the deepwater capex thesis and keeps subsea names top-of-mind in energy coverage.
m20
Risk-on tape, low beta
A calm VIX and risk-on regime is a mild positive, but with beta 0.74 the tape barely moves this name either way - so macro is a soft, not decisive, tailwind.
Headwinds 3
m40
Late-cycle archetype overhang
Cyclical-late-stage framing means every investor knows the capex cycle will peak; this caps multiple expansion and makes sentiment fragile to any oil or capex-guide wobble.
m25
Energy transition counter-narrative
The structural bear story (renewables displacing deepwater demand) is dormant but persistent, and re-emerges on any transition-policy headline, keeping a lid on cult/durability.
m15
Rich market PE and 4.64% 10y
Background valuation and rate pressure on all equities; light impact here given cash-flow profile and low beta, but a mild drag on multiple.
Net pressure is a modest tailwind. The subsea-capex narrative is working, momentum is on-side, and a fresh Guyana headline reinforces the frame - but this is a moderate, late-cycle story with low cult and known peak-risk, so it does not blow the doors off. Macro is a soft positive that lands lightly on a 0.74-beta name. I lean tailwind, not strong tailwind, because the bull story has limited room to expand and one oil or transition headline can quickly rebalance it.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Oil price action and any major-oil capex guide revisions - the single biggest sentiment lever
  • Analyst target revisions post-Guyana FPSO startup and next FTI backlog print
  • Any energy-transition policy headline that could reactivate the bear narrative
  • Whether momentum stays intact or breaks the trend, which would flip trend-follower flows
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
Growth Outlook
+26
Growing
edge √Σ 121 · risk √Σ 94 · conf 7/10

Two forces are pulling in opposite directions and FTI sits on the favorable side of both for now. Global oil demand is still growing modestly while conventional onshore and shale base decline accelerates, pushing majors back toward deepwater as the lowest-cost incremental barrel — subsea tiebacks and brownfield expansion are the cheapest reserve additions available, which is precisely FTI's franchise. Against that, the broader oilfield equipment industry is deflating: North American pressure pumping and land activity are shrinking, dragging the whole category's revenue and margins down, which is why the industry aggregate looks sick while offshore-levered specialists do not. Energy transition capital is real but is displacing marginal long-payback greenfield projects, not the 3-5 year-payback subsea tiebacks operators are sanctioning today. The practical implication: FTI's growth is offshore-cycle growth, and the offshore cycle is mid-to-late innings rather than early — durable through the backlog window, dependent on order intake beyond it.

Growth drivers 4
m76
Subsea backlog conversion with visible multi-year coverage
Revenue +10.2% matched-quarter YoY with operating income +33.7% and net income +51.4% — growth is coming through at expanding margins, the signature of a backlog booked at better pricing and executed via the integrated iEPCI model rather than volume chasing. Backlog gives unusual forward visibility for an energy-services name: the next 4-6 quarters of Subsea revenue are largely already contracted, which is why the trajectory has held while the industry's revenue turned negative.
m69
Documented share gain against a contracting industry
Recent company YoY +9.4% against industry -1.4% (a +10.8pp gap), and margins expanding while industry operating margins compressed -9.1pp over three years. Consolidation of subsea EPC into two credible integrators plus the direct-award/alliance model with majors means FTI captures scope (SPS + SURF) that previously went to competitors — a structural share mechanism, not a pricing giveaway.
m51
Deepwater cost curve resilience supports continued FID flow
Offshore breakevens have fallen enough that Brazil, Guyana, West Africa and Gulf projects remain sanctionable through the current oil price band; majors are funding subsea tiebacks and brownfield expansions to offset base decline. Tiebacks are short-cycle, higher-margin, and favor the incumbent with installed base and life-of-field service — a repeatable annuity layer beneath the lumpy greenfield awards.
m38
Persistent, wide beat cadence indicates conservative internal guidance
Five consecutive EPS beats of +14%, +14%, +35%, +15%, +14%. A streak that consistent and that large is not noise — it reflects project execution and margin realization running ahead of what the company itself is guiding, which raises the odds the next two prints clear the bar again.
Growth risks 4
m60
Cycle-peak / order intake air pocket
The measured quarterly trend is already flagged 'decelerating' and the sector cycle reads 'steady' with category median growth ~-0.9%. Backlog protects revenue, not orders. If 2026-27 FID activity thins — a plausible outcome if operators prioritize buybacks and discipline over new deepwater sanctioning — the growth engine quietly rolls over 6-8 quarters later, after the current backlog burns off.
m58
Price-implied growth is far above any defensible structural path
Reverse-DCF requires ~27.9% growth versus a house projection of 7.5%. Even a generous view of subsea share gains and margin mix lands in high-single to low-teens revenue with earnings growth moderating as the margin step-up laps. The gap is not a business problem, but it means the structural rung is nearly certain to underdeliver against what is already printed.
m33
Mega-project execution and lump-sum risk
Integrated awards concentrate schedule, vessel, and supply-chain risk on FTI's balance sheet. One troubled large project can erase several quarters of margin expansion, and the current earnings beat streak sets a high internal bar that leaves little cushion for a charge.
m28
Industry-wide margin compression and macro capex sensitivity
Industry operating margins -9.1pp and earnings CAGR -10.4% show pricing power is not a sector trait; FTI's expansion is company-specific and reversible. Macro headwinds with 10y at 4.64 raise operators' hurdle rates on long-payback offshore developments.
vs expectations: ~6m above · 1y inline · 2-3y below
The forward growth verdict — is the business itself likely to grow (next 2 quarters / year 1 / years 2–3), judged against its category and against printed expectations. The full horizon ladder + creme renders on the Growth Outlook card above. Not a call on the price (Valuation owns that) or the tape (Sentiment owns that).
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Lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure), and Growth Outlook (the forward growth verdict). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Price Prediction
Lower -9.4% v0.6.0 View full prediction →

When we made this prediction on Aug 27, 2026, FTI was $76.19. We expect it to be $69.00 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $55.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 27, 2026.

Price when predicted$76.19
Our estimate for Feb 2027$69.00-9.4%
Great value below$55.00
Price history shown (6 Months)

Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.

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My Notes personal — only you see this
v1.1.648 · e285203f · 2026-09-21 16:44:18