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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for TechnipFMC plc (FTI) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-09-22): Designation Low · Gem Score -29 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 42 · Value -77 · Sentiment 29 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $72.12 vs $75.70 at analysis
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TechnipFMC plc
FTI NYSETechnipFMC plc is an energy technology and services company that provides integrated solutions for offshore and subsea oil and gas development. TechnipFMC plc focuses on subsea production systems, subsea field infrastructure, installation services, and life-of-field support, helping operators design, build, and maintain complex deep-water projects. The company also supplies surface technologies, including wellheads, trees, pressure-control equipment, and measurement solutions used in oil and gas operations. Its business is organized around two core segments, Subsea and Surface Technologies, which serve customers across major energy-producing regions worldwide. TechnipFMC plc plays a significant role in the market by combining engineering, equipment, and project execution capabilities for traditional energy infrastructure.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 2.30
Total Equity: $3.41B
Shares: 419,700,000
Total Debt: $491.20M
Cash: $1.03B
EBITDA: $1.88B
Total Debt: $491.20M
Cash: $1.03B
Revenue: $9.93B
Revenue: $9.93B
Revenue: $9.93B
Total Equity: $3.41B
Tax Rate: 23.9%
Equity: $3.41B
Total Debt: $491.20M
Cash: $1.03B
Current Liabilities: $4.91B
Long-Term Debt: $456.90M
Total Debt: $491.20M
Total Equity: $3.41B
Shares: 419,700,000
Shares: 419,700,000
CapEx: -$317.20M
Shares: 419,700,000
Stock Price: $75.20
Net Income: $963.90M
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 27, 2026 6:33am (26d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $6.4B | $6.7B | $7.8B | $9.1B | $9.9B |
| Cost of Revenue | — | $5.8B | $6.5B | $7.4B | — |
| Gross Profit | — | $907.1M | $1.3B | $1.7B | — |
| Operating Expenses | — | $531.2M | $624.8M | $564.2M | — |
| Operating Income | $183.4M | $375.9M | $658.2M | $1.2B | $1.4B |
| Net Income | $13.3M | -$107.2M | $56.2M | $842.9M | $963.9M |
| EBITDA | $568.8M | $753.1M | $1.0B | $1.6B | $1.9B |
| EPS | $0.03 | $-0.24 | $0.13 | $1.96 | $2.34 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.03 | $-0.24 | $0.12 | $1.91 | $2.30 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 27, 2026 3:30am (26d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $1.3B | $1.1B | $951.7M | $1.2B | $1.0B |
| Total Current Assets | $5.3B | $5.0B | $5.2B | $5.5B | $5.5B |
| Total Assets | $10.0B | $9.4B | $9.7B | $9.9B | $10.1B |
| Current Liabilities | $3.9B | $4.2B | $4.5B | $4.9B | $4.9B |
| Long-Term Debt | $1.8B | $1.0B | $1.0B | $659.1M | $456.9M |
| Total Liabilities | $6.6B | $6.2B | $6.5B | $6.7B | $6.7B |
| Total Equity | $3.4B | $3.3B | $3.2B | $3.1B | $3.4B |
| Retained Earnings | -$4.9B | -$5.0B | -$5.0B | -$4.3B | -$3.8B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 27, 2026 6:33am (26d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $781.3M | $352.1M | $693.0M | $961.0M | $1.8B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$191.7M | -$157.9M | -$225.2M | -$281.6M | -$317.2M |
| Free Cash Flow | $589.6M | $194.2M | $467.8M | $679.4M | $1.4B |
| Acquisitions (net) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | -$297.8M | -$390.8M | $0 | $0 | — |
| Dividends Paid | $0 | $0 | -$43.5M | -$85.9M | -$82.3M |
| Stock Buybacks | $0 | — | — | — | — |
| Net Change in Cash | -$3.5B | -$270.3M | -$105.4M | $206.0M | -$125.8M |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 27, 2026 6:33am (26d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +4.6% | +16.8% | +16.1% | +9.4% |
| Gross Profit Growth | — | +41.4% | +34.2% | — |
| Operating Income Growth | +105.0% | +75.1% | +75.8% | +24.1% |
| Net Income Growth | -906.0% | +152.4% | +1,399.8% | +14.4% |
| EBITDA Growth | +32.4% | +37.6% | +49.6% | +21.2% |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 26, 2026 8:19am (26d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | $0.05 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-19 | $0.05 | — | — | — |
| 2026-03-17 | $0.05 | — | — | — |
| 2025-11-18 | $0.05 | — | — | — |
| 2025-08-19 | $0.05 | — | — | — |
| 2025-05-20 | $0.05 | — | — | — |
| 2025-03-18 | $0.05 | — | — | — |
| 2024-11-19 | $0.05 | — | — | — |
| 2024-08-20 | $0.05 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-20 | $0.05 | — | — | — |
| 2024-03-18 | $0.05 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-20 | $0.05 | — | — | — |
| 2023-08-21 | $0.05 | — | — | — |
| 2020-03-23 | $0.10 | — | — | — |
| 2019-11-18 | $0.10 | — | — | — |
| 2019-08-19 | $0.10 | — | — | — |
| 2019-05-20 | $0.10 | — | — | — |
| 2019-03-18 | $0.10 | — | — | — |
| 2018-11-19 | $0.10 | — | — | — |
| 2018-08-20 | $0.10 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Risk : Reward — upside vs downside from this company's own quarters
Computed 2026-09-12 02:02A +1σ run of quarters pays +6%; a −1σ run costs 66%. Ratio 0.1:1 (μ 11.2%, σ 17.4% floored by sector, 16 pairs).
Older method (repeat-worst-quarter): -0.7 : 1
| Case | Growth | Margin | Fair value | vs price ($75.70) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull — recovery | +11% | 13.0% | $49.69 | -34% |
| Base — stabilizes | +8% | 11.3% | $38.83 | -49% |
| Bear — keeps slipping | +4% | 9.6% | $29.76 | -61% |
| Stress — last quarter repeats | +6% | 12.4% | $40.72 | -46% |
| Upside — a +1σ run of quarters (v2) | +29% | 12.4% | $79.94 | +6% |
| Stress — a −1σ run of quarters (v2) | -6% | 12.0% | $25.80 | -66% |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Growth Outlook
Analyzed 2026-08-27 06:42The question every valuation on this page silently assumes: is this company likely to grow? Judged forward — the business, its category, the world — against what's already printed.
Claude Reading
Looking at the raw quarterly trajectory first: revenue went from $2.35B (Q3'24) to $2.76B (Q2'26) — that's ~17% over seven quarters, or ~10% annualized, not exactly super-cycle acceleration. But the margin story is real: net margin has stepped from 6.4% (Q1'25) to 13.1% (Q2'26), and the last two prints ($260.5M and $362.7M NI) show genuine operating leverage. Annualizing Q2'26 gets you ~$1.45B NI, putting forward P/E closer to 20x, not the trailing 32.7x. FCF of $1.45B on a $29.5B market cap is a ~4.9% FCF yield with net cash of $540M on the balance sheet — that is not expensive for a business compounding earnings this fast, and ROIC of 39% is genuinely impressive for oilfield equipment. Debt/equity of 0.13 means this is not a levered cyclical bet.
Where I part company with the synthesis: the $61.58 DCF fair value looks anchored to trailing-year earnings and a mid-cycle multiple assumption that doesn't credit the margin regime shift already visible in the last two quarters. If Q2'26 run-rate NI holds, you're paying ~20x forward on a company with $1.45B FCF, net cash, subsea backlog visibility, and 30%+ ROE. The "16.8% overvalued" verdict implicitly assumes mean-reversion in margins that the quarterly data actively contradicts. That said, the narrative model is right that this is a cyclical timing bet — subsea equipment is not a secular grower, and the incremental margin expansion has to come from somewhere (mix, pricing, backlog) that reverses when the capex cycle rolls. The pre-flight framing of "mature earner" understates the cyclicality; calling this a traditional industrial glosses over that FTI printed a *loss* in 2022 and $56M NI in 2023.
The contrarian case worth taking seriously: subsea capex cycles have historically peaked 2-3 years into acceleration, and we're already 2+ years in. Insider activity is mixed-to-bearish under the hood — the "net buying" tag is misleading because the large A-Awards (302k and 1.6M shares) are grants, not open-market purchases, while the actual cash decisions were S-Sales in May 2026 and one modest 6,365 share purchase in August. That's insiders taking chips off the table into strength, not accumulating. The decelerating revenue trend flag matters: Q1'26 was $2.49B vs Q3'25 $2.65B — the Q2'26 jump to $2.76B could be lumpy project revenue rather than trend. Macro headwinds (oil price sensitivity, energy transition capex reallocation risk from majors) are the tail risk the bull case doesn't price.
Net: I think the synthesis is directionally too bearish because it doesn't weight the margin step-up, but the market-narrative team is right that the premium is a cycle-timing bet, not a re-rating. On forward numbers FTI is roughly fairly valued in the $70-80 range, with fair value probably $72-78 depending on whether you believe Q2'26 margins hold. I'd dissent from "fully priced at $61 fair value" — that's too low — but I won't call it undervalued either. The asymmetry from here is not attractive: upside requires margins to hold AND backlog to keep converting AND oil capex to extend through 2027-28; downside is a standard cyclical roll where margins compress 300-400 bps and the multiple compresses to 15x, taking the stock to the mid-$50s. I'd want to see the Q3'26 print confirm the 12-13% margin before adding, and I'd trim into further strength above $85.
GPT Reading
What stands out is that TechnipFMC is no longer a turnaround story in the income statement, but the stock is still being priced like earnings are about to inflect much further. The operating business has clearly improved: annual revenue rose from $6.7B in 2022 to $9.93B in 2025, while operating income went from $375.9M to $1.44B, expanding operating margin from 5.6% to 14.5%. The quarterly trend reinforces that this is not a one-off: over the last eight quarters revenue climbed from $2.35B in 2024’s third quarter to $2.76B in 2026’s second quarter, and net margin has mostly held in a healthy 9.5%-13.1% range after dipping to 6.4% in 2025’s first quarter. That is the picture of a business with better project mix, better execution, and probably a structurally improved subsea market. Add in the balance sheet — $1.03B cash against just $491M debt — and this is a high-quality cyclical industrial, not a fragile oilfield services balance-sheet story.
The problem is valuation versus the level of growth now showing up. At $29.5B market cap on 2025 net income of $964M, investors are paying about 31x trailing earnings for a company whose recent quarterly revenue growth is good but not explosive: 9.4% year over year in the latest quarter, with sequential growth from $2.49B to $2.76B but off a base that already reflects recovery. Even if I annualize the last two quarters’ earnings power, you get something like $1.25B-$1.35B of net income, which still leaves the stock around 22x-24x a fairly optimistic forward run-rate. For a capital-cycle energy equipment name, that is rich. The cash flow helps the case more than earnings do — $1.45B of free cash flow on $29.5B market cap is roughly a 4.9% FCF yield — but that is not cheap enough to ignore cycle risk, especially when EV/revenue is above 3x and EV/EBITDA above 16x. Those multiples imply that current margins are durable and possibly still heading up, which feels like the market is paying in advance for a late-cycle scenario.
The data also suggest the easy part of the rerating has already happened. From 2023 to 2025, revenue grew 27% while net income exploded from $56M to $964M; that kind of earnings CAGR is mostly margin normalization, not a repeatable growth algorithm. Once a business has already gone from near-breakeven to nearly 10% net margin, future upside depends much more on sustaining those margins through project cycles than on simply filling factories and spreading fixed costs. That is where I part ways with any purely bullish read. The current ratio at 1.13 is fine, the ROE at 28% and ROIC at 39% look excellent, but those returns are being measured off a still-modest equity base of $3.41B after years of restructuring and cyclical trough conditions. I would not capitalize those headline returns as if this were a software platform with recurring economics; they are good industrial-cycle returns at a favorable point in the cycle.
The best case against my caution is straightforward: this may be one of the rare oil-services-adjacent names that deserves a premium because it has become cleaner, less levered, and more cash generative just as offshore development spending enjoys multiyear visibility. Latest quarterly net income of $363M on $2.76B revenue is not just “recovered”; it suggests a business potentially exiting 2026 at a $1.4B+ annual earnings run-rate. If that happens, the P/E compresses quickly into the high teens or low 20s without any stock decline. The balance sheet is underlevered, free cash flow conversion is strong, insider activity has at least one recent open-market purchase, and if management uses $1.45B of annual FCF for buybacks, per-share earnings can keep compounding even on moderate revenue growth. A bull would say the market is not paying for peak earnings, but for a structurally improved offshore value chain where integrated subsea players command better pricing and execution economics than in prior cycles.
What would change my mind is evidence that this is still early, not late, in the margin and cash-flow upgrade. If the next two quarters can hold revenue above $2.7B while keeping net margin at 12%-13%, and if annual free cash flow moves from $1.45B toward $1.7B-$1.9B without balance-sheet strain, then the current price starts to look more defendable. Conversely, if revenue stalls around $2.5B-$2.6B or net margin slips back toward 9%-10%, the premium multiple has no cushion and I would expect a re-rating toward the low $60s, much closer to where the current cash generation actually supports the equity.
Grok Reading
The numbers show a genuine operational reset, not cosmetic earnings. TechnipFMC went from $6.4B revenue and essentially breakeven net income in 2021 to $9.93B and $964M of NI in 2025, with operating income scaling from $183M to $1.44B. Free cash flow of $1.45B on only $317M of capex is the standout: this is a capital-light cash machine relative to the installed base, not a heavy reinvestment story. Net cash of roughly $540M, debt-to-equity of 0.13, ROIC of 39%, and ROE of 28% confirm the restructuring worked. Quarterly progression is constructive—margins lifted from 6.4% in early 2025 to 13.1% in the most recent quarter on $2.76B of revenue and $363M of NI—so the earnings power is still climbing in absolute dollars. The market is not wrong that the company is a better business than it was five years ago.
Where the story breaks is price. At $75.2 and a $29.5B market cap, the stock trades at 33x trailing earnings, 9.3x book, 3.2x sales, and 16x EV/EBITDA. For a mature oilfield equipment and subsea services name classified as a cyclical late-stage earner, those multiples embed continued mid-teens earnings growth and durable offshore capex. Revenue CAGR of 12.7% is solid but the recent YoY revenue print is 9.4% with a decelerating quarterly trend flagged explicitly; the 314% earnings CAGR is almost entirely base-effect from the 2022–23 trough and cannot be extrapolated. Paying 33x for a company whose DCF-style composite lands near $63 implies the market is capitalizing a multi-year deepwater super-cycle that is already partially visible in the backlog and already in the multiple. Dividend yield of 0.27% offers no valuation floor. The premium over ~$63 fair value is a pure timing bet on energy-major FID momentum, not on further ROIC expansion from here.
The strongest counter-case is that high-teens-to-20% FCF yield on enterprise value is rare in energy services, the balance sheet can fund buybacks or bolt-ons without stress, and subsea integration gives FTI pricing power peers lack as majors lock in long-cycle projects through 2028–30. If backlog converts cleanly and margins hold near the recent 11–13% net range, forward earnings could grow into the multiple within two years and the “overvalued” label would look premature. I weigh that less heavily because secondary signals already show macro headwinds and decelerating revenue confidence, the narrative durability is explicitly moderate and cycle-dependent, and oilfield service history is littered with peak-multiple traps when capex pauses. Insider activity is mostly awards and modest sales with one small purchase—not a strong confirmatory buy signal at these levels.
What flips me: sustained quarterly revenue re-acceleration above 12–15% YoY with net margins holding above 12%, or clear multi-year backlog disclosures that de-risk 2027–28 cash flows enough to justify mid-20s forward PE. A sharp oil-price or FID freeze that cuts FCF below $1B would confirm the downside case faster.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
TechnipFMC has executed a clean operational turnaround. Revenue grew from $6.40B (2021) to $9.93B (2025), operating margin climbed from 2.9% to 14.5%, net income went from essentially breakeven ($13M in 2021, a $107M loss in 2022) to $964M, and FCF more than doubled to $1.45B. Balance sheet is in a net cash position of $541M and Altman Z of 3.64 puts it in the safe zone. OCF/NI of 14x and accruals of -5.7% of assets indicate reported earnings are backed by cash, not accrual gymnastics.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Subsea backlog composition, duration, and pricing terms (fixed vs escalator) to gauge margin durability
- Customer concentration - share of revenue from top 3-5 IOC/NOC customers
- Whether the 2021 and 2025 gross margin readings of 0 are a data artifact or a reclassification
- Buyback authorization size and pace vs SBC issuance to confirm net share reduction is structural
- Any 10b5-1 plans behind the March 2026 CEO sales and whether they are scheduled or discretionary
The composite fair value lands at $61.58 and the signal-adjusted FV at $63.02, both implying roughly -17% downside from $75.70. The internals are telling: DCF pegs it at $40.97 and EPV floor at $24.10, while the anchored P/E method throws out a runaway $140.26 that is clearly extrapolating peak subsea margins across a cycle - I discount that method heavily. Averaging the two grounded methods (DCF and EPV) gets you to the low-$30s; even generously weighting the anchored-PE to reflect a genuinely improved franchise, ~$60-65 is the honest deserved range. Earnings quality is high so no haircut, and the Solid business grade supports the upper end of that range - but not a premium above it. What is priced in at $75.70: sustained record deepwater capex through 2030, continued margin expansion, and no cyclical air pocket. That is the bull case fully cashed in advance. The bear case (energy-transition capex reallocation, mega-project execution slippage, cycle peak in 12-24 months) gets no discount at this price. Heavy insider selling is a small tell that folks closest to the numbers do not see obvious upside from here. This is a good business at a full price - the mispricing edge is negative, not positive.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- 2025-2026 subsea order backlog conversion cadence and book-to-bill
- mega-project execution charges or cost overruns in recent segment results
- management guidance on mid-cycle vs peak margin sustainability
- pace of buybacks vs insider selling in latest filings
- customer capex guidance from major E&P clients for 2026-2027
The prevailing narrative for FTI is a constructive one: record deepwater and subsea capex commitments from majors through 2030, with FTI framed as the essential integrated provider. Intensity and durability are only moderate and cult factor is low, so this is not a mania - but it is a working bull story with fresh reinforcement from the Guyana FPSO headline, which keeps deepwater capex tangible and in the tape. Momentum is strong positive (12.7% CAGR, improving leverage), which tends to attract trend followers and keep analyst tone constructive. With beta 0.74, FTI is only modestly exposed to the broader tape anyway, and the current risk-on regime (VIX 15.2, S&P near highs) is a mild positive rather than a driver. The offsetting pressure is the late-cycle archetype: the market knows this is a cyclical peaking story, and any oil-price wobble or energy-transition headline can flip sentiment quickly. Rates at 4.64% and a rich market PE are a background drag on all equities but land lightly here given low beta and cash-flow visibility. Net: a real but not decisive tailwind - the story is working, nothing is breaking, but the narrative has limited room to expand without a genuine capex-cycle surprise.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Oil price action and any major-oil capex guide revisions - the single biggest sentiment lever
- Analyst target revisions post-Guyana FPSO startup and next FTI backlog print
- Any energy-transition policy headline that could reactivate the bear narrative
- Whether momentum stays intact or breaks the trend, which would flip trend-follower flows
Two forces are pulling in opposite directions and FTI sits on the favorable side of both for now. Global oil demand is still growing modestly while conventional onshore and shale base decline accelerates, pushing majors back toward deepwater as the lowest-cost incremental barrel — subsea tiebacks and brownfield expansion are the cheapest reserve additions available, which is precisely FTI's franchise. Against that, the broader oilfield equipment industry is deflating: North American pressure pumping and land activity are shrinking, dragging the whole category's revenue and margins down, which is why the industry aggregate looks sick while offshore-levered specialists do not. Energy transition capital is real but is displacing marginal long-payback greenfield projects, not the 3-5 year-payback subsea tiebacks operators are sanctioning today. The practical implication: FTI's growth is offshore-cycle growth, and the offshore cycle is mid-to-late innings rather than early — durable through the backlog window, dependent on order intake beyond it.
When we made this prediction on Aug 27, 2026, FTI was $76.19. We expect it to be $69.00 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $55.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 27, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.