For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page
What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Omada Health, Inc. (OMDA) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-09-11): Designation Low · Gem Score -23 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 15 · Value -54 · Sentiment -28 (timing only, not weighted)
Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable
reference-name attribute you can cite):
profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
price-history,income-trend,key-metrics,financials(statement tables),insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.
More for machine readers: site briefing at
/llms.txt ·
any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER ·
raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds);
every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.
Omada Health, Inc.
OMDA NASDAQOmada Health Inc. is a healthcare technology company specializing in virtual-first care programs focused on chronic disease prevention and management. Founded in 2011 and headquartered in San Francisco, the company delivers digital solutions designed to support individuals in managing conditions such as diabetes, hypertension, and musculoskeletal disorders. Omada Health provides personalized care plans that combine human coaching, connected smart health devices, and interactive digital tools to guide members toward sustainable lifestyle changes. The company's services are tailored for employers, health plans, health systems, pharmacy benefit managers, and other organizations seeking to improve health outcomes and reduce long-term care costs. With a user-centric approach, Omada Health has served over a million members and collaborates with thousands of corporate partners across diverse sectors, including education, retail, and manufacturing. By leveraging data-driven insights and a multidisciplinary care team, Omada Health plays a pivotal role in the health information services sector, aiming to "bend the curve" of chronic disease through accessible, engaging, and effective virtual care solutions.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): -0.35
Total Equity: $229.68M
Shares: 36,639,000
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $222.04M
EBITDA: -$6.48M
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $222.04M
Revenue: $260.21M
Shares: 36,639,000
Revenue: $260.21M
Revenue: $260.21M
Revenue: $260.21M
Total Equity: $229.68M
Tax Rate: 0.0%
Equity: $229.68M
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $222.04M
Current Liabilities: $75.73M
Long-Term Debt: $0.00
Total Debt: $0.00
Total Equity: $229.68M
Shares: 36,639,000
Shares: 36,639,000
CapEx: -$1.32M
Shares: 36,639,000
Stock Price: $19.69
Net Income: -$12.78M
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 6:23pm (42d ago)| Metric | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $122.8M | $169.8M | $260.2M |
| Cost of Revenue | $52.8M | $66.9M | $89.3M |
| Gross Profit | $70.0M | $102.9M | $170.9M |
| Operating Expenses | $136.0M | $146.5M | $182.9M |
| Operating Income | -$66.0M | -$43.7M | -$12.0M |
| Net Income | -$67.5M | -$47.1M | -$12.8M |
| EBITDA | -$61.5M | -$38.9M | -$6.5M |
| EPS | $-9.52 | $-6.11 | $-0.35 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-9.52 | $-6.11 | $-0.35 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 6:13pm (42d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | — | — | $76.4M | $222.0M |
| Total Current Assets | — | — | $113.1M | $272.9M |
| Total Assets | — | — | $150.9M | $305.4M |
| Current Liabilities | — | — | $54.0M | $75.7M |
| Long-Term Debt | — | — | $29.8M | $0 |
| Total Liabilities | — | — | $86.3M | $75.7M |
| Total Equity | $155.6M | $98.9M | $64.6M | $229.7M |
| Retained Earnings | — | — | -$444.0M | -$456.7M |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 6:23pm (42d ago)| Metric | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | -$49.7M | -$34.2M | $18.3M |
| Capital Expenditure | $-416,000 | $-596,000 | -$1.3M |
| Free Cash Flow | -$50.2M | -$34.8M | $16.9M |
| Acquisitions (net) | — | — | — |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | — | — | — |
| Dividends Paid | — | — | — |
| Stock Buybacks | — | — | — |
| Net Change in Cash | -$52.5M | -$39.3M | $145.6M |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 6:23pm (42d ago)| Metric | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +38.3% | +53.2% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +47.0% | +66.2% |
| Operating Income Growth | +33.9% | +72.6% |
| Net Income Growth | +30.2% | +72.9% |
| EBITDA Growth | +36.9% | +83.3% |
Deep Analysis
Risk : Reward — upside vs downside from this company's own quarters
Computed 2026-09-06 19:23A +1σ run of quarters pays -89%; a −1σ run costs 91%. Ratio -1.0:1 (μ 45.2%, σ 3.8% , 4 pairs).
Older method (repeat-worst-quarter): 1.0 : 1
| Case | Growth | Margin | Fair value | vs price ($19.69) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull — recovery | +65% | 17.3% | $37.12 | +89% |
| Base — stabilizes | +43% | 15.0% | $18.73 | -5% |
| Bear — keeps slipping | +22% | 12.8% | $8.65 | -56% |
| Stress — last quarter repeats | +42% | 1.4% | $1.82 | -91% |
| Upside — a +1σ run of quarters (v2) | +49% | 1.4% | $2.17 | -89% |
| Stress — a −1σ run of quarters (v2) | +41% | 1.4% | $1.79 | -91% |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
The raw trajectory is genuinely impressive and I want to state that plainly before critiquing. Quarterly revenue has walked from $41.2M (Q2'24) to $78.0M (Q1'26) — a near-doubling in seven quarters with no visible deceleration (Q1'26 up 41.8% YoY vs Q1'25's $55.0M). Gross margin is 65.7%, operating losses have compressed from -$66M (2023) to -$12M (2025) on a 2.1x revenue base, and 2025 delivered $18.3M operating cash flow with $16.9M FCF against $222M cash and zero debt. This is a legitimate crossing of the profitability rubicon, not a paper one. At $19.69 and $1.17B market cap, EV/S is roughly 3.6x on trailing and ~3.0x on run-rate ($78M × 4 = $312M), which is not obviously stretched for a 40%+ grower with real gross margins.
Where I part company with the synthesis's "High Conviction Required" framing is on tone: the models are hedging because narrative durability is "moderate" and insiders are selling, but the actual numbers are cleaner than most digital health peers ever managed. The contrarian pushback I'd take seriously has three prongs. First, Q1'26 flipped back to a -$3.0M net loss after Q4'25's $5.2M profit — one profitable quarter does not a trend make, and Q4 in health tech often carries year-end enterprise deal timing that won't repeat in Q1. Second, 53% revenue growth in 2025 partially reflects post-IPO customer acquisition tailwinds (Omada IPO'd in mid-2025); comparing to the pre-IPO burn era overstates the structural improvement. Third, the competitive backdrop is genuinely brutal — Teladoc trades at ~1x sales for a reason, Livongo was the cautionary tale, and UnitedHealth/CVS/Hinge Health/Virta all target the same chronic-condition employer wallets. The market-forces model is right to flag that incumbents building in-house is an existential drag on multiple.
The insider selling pattern deserves more scrutiny than the models gave it. Ten transactions in a two-week July 2026 window, all option-exercise-and-sell, is programmatic 10b5-1 behavior from newly-liquid post-lockup insiders — not a "get out now" signal, but not a vote of confidence either. What I'd want to see and don't: named insiders, dollar values, and whether any executive is a net buyer. The absence of that granularity means I can't distinguish routine diversification from concerning distribution. Also flagging: the "2026-03-31" and "2026-07" dates suggest this data file is running on a forward calendar or is mislabeled — worth confirming because it materially affects whether the $78M print is actual or projected. If Q1'26 is a projection, the entire thesis weakens.
Net: I partially agree with the synthesis but lean more constructively than the "neutral / full valuation" framing. At 3.0x forward sales for a company growing 40%+ with positive FCF, expanding gross margins, and $222M net cash (~$3.75/share of the $19.69 price is cash), the risk-reward is asymmetric to the upside if 2026 delivers even $340-360M revenue with breakeven-to-positive net income. Fair value on a 4-5x forward sales multiple (justified by growth + FCF positivity, discounted for competitive risk) is $22-28. The bear case — churn re-accelerates, an enterprise incumbent undercuts pricing, Q1'26's swing back to losses becomes a trend — could compress to 2x sales or ~$14. That's roughly a +30% / -30% skew with the base case modestly higher than spot. I dissent mildly from the synthesis's implied "wait" posture: this is a starter-position setup, not a wait-for-catalyst setup, because the catalyst (crossed into FCF+) has already happened and the market hasn't fully re-rated. But size it small — narrative durability really is moderate, and one bad print takes this to $14 fast.
GPT Reading
What stands out is that Omada has already done the hardest part of the story: it converted a digital-health promise into visible operating leverage. Revenue went from $122.8M in 2023 to $169.8M in 2024 and then $260.2M in 2025, a two-year CAGR of roughly 46%, while annual net loss narrowed from -$67.5M to -$47.1M to -$12.8M. The quarterly progression is even cleaner. Revenue climbed from $41.2M in Q2 2024 to $45.5M in Q3 2024, then $55.0M, $61.4M, $68.0M, $75.8M, and $78.0M in the latest quarter. That is not a “growth at any cost” line wobbling around; it is a steady stair-step higher. At the same time, net margin improved from -25.9% in Q2 2024 to -20.3%, then -17.2%, -8.7%, -4.7%, briefly positive at 6.8%, and back to -3.8% in the latest quarter. A one-quarter dip after a profitable quarter does not bother me much; the bigger message is that the business appears close to breakeven at a revenue run-rate above $300M.
The balance sheet materially de-risks the equity. Omada ended 2025 with $222.0M of cash and no debt against a $1.17B market cap, so about 19% of the equity value is backed by cash. On an enterprise basis, the stock is effectively valued around $948M, or about 3.6x 2025 revenue. For a company still growing north of 50% year over year in the latest quarter, with gross margin at 65.7% and positive 2025 operating cash flow of $18.3M and free cash flow of $16.9M, that multiple is not demanding. The market often pays 5-7x revenue for software-like healthcare platforms with similar growth, but Omada is discounted because digital health has burned investors before. I think that skepticism is healthy, but here it has pushed the valuation to a level where the improving fundamentals matter more than the sector scar tissue. At $19.69, investors are not paying a crazy premium for a business that may be one or two points of margin execution away from sustainable profitability.
The key contradiction I see versus some of the cautionary model language is that the stock is being treated as if it is still mainly a narrative, but the numbers now anchor the story more than the narrative does. You do not need heroic assumptions to make this work. If annualized revenue from the latest quarter is about $312M and the company can hold gross margin around the mid-60s while keeping opex growth below revenue growth, then even a modest 5-8% net margin over the next couple of years supports meaningful earnings power. On $350M of revenue, a 7% net margin is roughly $24M of net income; put even a 30x multiple on that for a company still growing quickly and the equity value is not obviously stretched, especially after adjusting for the cash. The company has gone from losing more than one-third of revenue at the operating line in 2023 to losing just 4.6% in 2025. That is real.
The best bear case is that 2025 may flatter the true economics. Annual net income was still negative $12.8M despite positive free cash flow, which raises the usual question of working-capital timing and stock-based compensation quality rather than pure earnings power. The latest quarter also showed only $78.0M of revenue after $75.8M in the prior quarter, so sequential growth slowed to about 3%, and net income slipped back to a loss. If growth drops from 53% year-over-year into the 20s before GAAP profitability is established, then 3.6x EV/revenue stops looking cheap for a healthcare services business rather than a true software platform. The “below sector benchmarks” and unusual insider selling flags matter too, even if the reported transactions look largely tied to option exercises. A smart skeptic would say this is exactly the kind of company that looks cheapest right before growth normalizes and the market realizes margins will top out well below software comps.
What would change my mind is straightforward. If the next two quarters fail to sustain revenue above roughly $80M and year-over-year growth falls below 35% while net margin worsens back toward -10%, then I would conclude the operating leverage story was mostly a catch-up from underinvestment rather than a durable model. Conversely, if Omada can post another two quarters of $80M+ revenue, keep gross margin in the mid-60s, and deliver near-breakeven or positive net income with positive operating cash flow, then the market will likely have to re-rate this above the current level. The stock is not a screaming bargain, but below $20 it looks more undervalued than speculative to me because the company has already crossed the key proof point that many digital-health peers never reached.
Grok Reading
The raw numbers describe a genuine operating inflection, not a story still waiting to happen. Omada grew revenue from $122.8M in 2023 to $169.8M in 2024 to $260.2M in 2025—38% then 53%—and the quarterly run-rate has continued higher: $55.0M in Q1 2025, $61.4M, $68.0M, $75.8M, and $78.0M in the March 2026 quarter. That is roughly 42% year-over-year in the latest print. More important than the top line is the collapse in losses: annual net income improved from –$67.5M to –$47.1M to –$12.8M, operating margin reached –4.6%, and 2025 produced $18.3M of operating cash flow and $16.9M of free cash flow on only $1.3M of capex. Gross margin sits at 65.7%. The balance sheet is pristine—$222M cash, zero debt, current ratio 3.6—so the company is not racing a liquidity clock. At $19.69 and a $1.17B market cap, enterprise value is roughly $950M, or 3.65× trailing revenue and under 3× a simple annualization of the latest quarter. For a platform that has just crossed into positive FCF while still compounding near 45% CAGR, that multiple is not demanding.
The single profitable quarter (Q4 2025 net margin +6.8%) followed by a return to a –$3.0M loss in Q1 2026 shows the earnings line is still noisy, but the direction of travel on cash and operating leverage is unambiguous. Rule-based and pre-flight labels correctly tag this as pre-profit growth; the lagging multiples (negative PE, –146× EV/EBITDA) are therefore mostly noise. What matters is that unit economics appear to have flipped: revenue is scaling faster than the cost base, and the cash conversion is now real rather than promised. Insider activity is almost entirely option exercise followed by sale—routine liquidity, not a cluster of open-market distributions that would signal lost conviction—but it still removes a potential bullish catalyst.
The strongest contrary case is that sequential growth has already decelerated sharply ($75.8M to $78.0M is only +3% quarter-on-quarter), the company remains unprofitable on a trailing basis, and digital-health peers have repeatedly shown that employer and payer contracts can churn or compress once the novelty wears off. Market Forces correctly flags full valuation and limited near-term upside; the Narrative layer is unanchored and mission-driven, so any stumble on retention or outcomes data can re-rate the stock toward 2× sales quickly. Big-payer in-housing (United, CVS, Humana) is a structural threat the current 3.65× multiple does not fully discount, and FCF quality is scored poorly—possibly reflecting working-capital timing or one-time items rather than durable conversion. Those points keep conviction from rising above moderate; they do not, however, erase two consecutive years of 50%-plus growth paired with a cash-flow turn and a net-cash balance sheet.
I would flip to a clear overvalued stance if the next two quarters show revenue growth falling below 25% year-over-year or if free cash flow turns negative again while the cash balance begins to erode. Conversely, two more quarters of sequential acceleration above 8% and sustained positive net income would justify a higher multiple and a more aggressive bid below $18.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Omada is a pre-profit growth business showing genuine operating improvement: revenue scaled from $122.8M (2023) to $169.8M (2024) to $260.2M (2025), a two-year CAGR near 46%, while gross margin expanded from 57% to 65.7% and operating margin narrowed from -53.8% to -4.6%. Net loss compressed from -$67.5M to -$12.8M and free cash flow flipped from -$50.2M to +$16.9M in 2025. Combined with $222M of liquid cash, zero meaningful debt, and an Altman Z of 8.68, survival risk is effectively nil and the company is now self-funding.
Verify before trusting this (6)
- Confirm the 7.7M to 36.6M share jump is IPO conversion of preferred/founder shares rather than recurring dilution
- Working-capital walk explaining OCF/NI of 0.01x - deferred revenue, receivables timing, or accrual reversals?
- Customer concentration among employer/health plan clients in the 10-K
- Revenue mix and retention/net-revenue-retention disclosures to test durability of the 53% growth rate
- SBC schedule and expected annual dilution run-rate now that the company is public
- Whether the FCF positive quarter is seasonal or a durable inflection
The e2e synthesis itself flags 'High Conviction Required,' which is a soft way of saying the standard valuation methods do not comfortably support the price without leaning on optimistic growth assumptions. Omada is a recently-public digital health platform just crossing into FCF-positive territory; the market cap of ~$1.17B is capitalizing a business whose GAAP profitability is still nascent and whose earnings quality carries flags (weak OCF/NI conversion noted in the quality lens). That is the classic profile of a story stock priced on trajectory, not on trailing cash flows.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Forward revenue guidance and cohort retention disclosures in the next 10-Q/transcript
- Customer concentration and enterprise renewal rates
- SBC as % of revenue and diluted share count trajectory post-IPO lockup
- Segment gross margin between coaching-heavy vs software-only offerings
- Any commentary on payer/PBM competitive wins or losses vs UNH/CVS in-house builds
The macro backdrop is actively hostile to exactly this profile. VIX at 20.7 (higher than 97% of the past year), S&P off 3.9% from highs, 10y at 4.61%, and a market PE of 26.2 mean the marginal dollar is fleeing unprofitable, narrative-priced small caps first. OMDA is a mission-driven-bet archetype with no DCF anchor and cash burn - the exact cohort that gets marked down when liquidity tightens, regardless of how good the outcomes data looks. The narrative itself is strong but only moderately durable, with medium cult - meaning holders can wobble if the tape keeps bleeding. On the other hand, OMDA's own price action is genuinely working: 53% recent trailing vs 45.6% long-term CAGR and +50pp over three years say the stock has its own bid despite the digital-health sector still carrying post-2021 scar tissue. That momentum partially offsets the macro press but does not neutralize it - high-beta story stocks in a stress regime rarely get to keep outrunning the tape indefinitely. Net: a real headwind from the macro/narrative-cohort side, cushioned but not erased by the stock's own trend.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Whether the risk-off regime persists beyond the 1-day nascent read or resolves quickly
- Any crack in the narrative - a large employer contract loss, churn disclosure, or a payer building in-house
- Sector rotation signals in peer digital-health names (Teladoc, Hims, Hinge) - if the cohort breaks, OMDA follows
- Analyst target revisions or downgrades that would validate a narrative fade
- VIX mean-reversion under 18 would meaningfully lighten the press
This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.
When we made this prediction on Aug 1, 2026, OMDA was $19.84. We expect it to be $15.80 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $15.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 1, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.