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AGING Analysis Report
Jun 15, 2026
12 days ago · 100% complete · +8 refreshed

Equity LifeStyle Properties, Inc.

ELS NYSE Categories PDF
Real Estate · REIT - Residential
Chicago, IL 60606, United States IPO 1993 equitylifestyleproperties.com Updated Jun 15, 3:00am
Price
$64.83
Market Cap
$12.6B
Employees
3,800
Beta
0.68
Avg Volume
1,430,542
CEO
Marguerite Nader
Business Description

Based in Chicago, Equity LifeStyle Properties, Inc. operates as a self-managed Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT). As of January 25, 2021, its extensive portfolio includes 423 quality properties located across 33 U.S. states and British Columbia, collectively comprising 161,229 sites.

Business History
Generated: Jun 15, 2026 3:02am
Price Overview
Last updated: Jun 15, 2026 3:00am (12d ago)
$64.83
+0.89 (+1.39%)
Day Range
$64.24 – $65.00
52-Week Range
$58.15 – $69.00
50-Day MA
$63.15
200-Day MA
$62.90
Volume
1,292,245.00
Analyst Price Targets
Low $67.00
Consensus $70.83
High $75.00
(22 analysts)
Share Structure
Outstanding 193,937,553.00
Float 192,304,599.00
Free Float 99.2%
High free float — 99.2% of shares trade freely, ~0.8% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jun 15, 2026 3:06am (12d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jun 15, 2026 3:06am (12d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
API Direct from provider CALC Derived from statements
Industry comparison last run: Jun 15, 2026 3:02am
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
API
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
32.59
Stock Price: $64.83
EPS (Diluted): 1.93
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
API
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
6.90
Stock Price: $64.83
Total Equity: $1.76B
Shares: 200,114,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
API
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
26.02
Market Cap: $12.57B
Total Debt: $3.35B
Cash: $26.13M
EBITDA: $607.68M
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
API
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$15.5B
Market Cap: $12.57B
Total Debt: $3.35B
Cash: $26.13M
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
API
Gross Profit / Revenue
37.6%
Gross Profit: $576.30M
Revenue: $1.53B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
API
Operating Income / Revenue
33.8%
Operating Income: $517.87M
Revenue: $1.53B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
API
Net Income / Revenue
25.2%
Net Income: $386.51M
Revenue: $1.53B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
API
Net Income / Total Equity
22.0%
Net Income: $386.51M
Total Equity: $1.76B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
API
NOPAT / Invested Capital
10.6%
Operating Income: $517.87M
Tax Rate: -0.8%
Equity: $1.76B
Total Debt: $3.35B
Cash: $26.13M
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
API
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
1.68
Current Assets: $119.49M
Current Liabilities: $71.28M
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
CALC
Total Debt / Total Equity
1.90
Short-Term Debt: $71.28M
Long-Term Debt: $3.27B
Total Debt: $3.35B
Total Equity: $1.76B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
CALC
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$7.65
Revenue: $1.53B
Shares: 200,114,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
CALC
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$8.78
Total Equity: $1.76B
Shares: 200,114,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
CALC
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$1.67
Operating CF: $571.15M
CapEx: -$237.09M
Shares: 200,114,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
API
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
3.3%
Last Dividend: N/A
Stock Price: $64.83
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
Dividends Paid / Net Income
—
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $386.51M
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Jun 15, 2026 3:01am
Compares ELS against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · three lenses
Three separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-06-15 03:08:17
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality — wait for a dip 8/10
A genuinely solid REIT (+23 quality) trading at a rich price (-61 value) — right business, wrong price.
The cruxWhether you get a rate scare or RV-segment wobble that resets the multiple into the mid-$50s — without it, there's no edge here.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from ELS's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionModerate Dilution
Earnings QualityGood Earnings Quality
The three lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+23
Solid
edge √Σ 110 · risk √Σ 87 · conf 7/10

ELS is a textbook mature compounder in a defensive niche (manufactured home communities, RV resorts, marinas). Revenue has stepped up steadily from $1.32B (2021) to $1.53B (2025), operating margin has expanded from ~25% to 33.8%, and net income has grown from $262M to $387M — a clean, low-volatility trajectory consistent with a high-occupancy land-lord model. FCF of $334M on $387M of net income, plus OCF/NI of 1.69x and accruals at -3.9% of assets, points to high-quality, cash-backed earnings — exactly what you want to see in a REIT.

The quality knocks are structural rather than forensic. Net debt of $3.32B against only $26M of liquid cash is normal for a REIT but means the balance sheet is a working tool, not a cushion; $71M of short-term debt exceeds cash, so refinancing access is a permanent dependency. Diluted shares have grown from 182.9M to 200.1M (≈2.3%/yr) with essentially zero buyback, so equity issuance — typical REIT ATM funding — is quietly diluting per-unit growth. The Beneish M of -1.67 is technically a flag but inconsistent with the rest of the earnings-quality picture (strong OCF/NI, negative accruals); it likely reflects margin expansion and asset growth rather than manipulation. The GM% line (19.9 → 46.9 → 49.4 → 37.6) bounces enough to suggest reclassification rather than a real margin story — worth verifying but not alarming.

Insider tape is neutral-to-soft: zero open-market buys, one small sale, and the rest are routine awards and gifts. No conviction signal either way. Net: a high-integrity, well-run, defensive real-estate operator — solid, not fortress, because leverage and dilution are real per-share frictions.

Strengths 3
m70
Clean cash conversion
OCF/NI 1.69x, accruals -3.9% of assets, and FCF of $334M against $387M net income — earnings are cash-backed, consistent with a real rent-collection model.
m65
Steady top-line and margin expansion
Revenue $1.32B→$1.53B over 5 years with operating margin climbing from 25.4% (2022) to 33.8% (2025); net income up ~47% over the period with low volatility.
m55
Defensive niche with implied moat
Manufactured-home community model has high switching costs (homes are 'manufactured' but rarely moved) and constrained new supply — durability is structural, not cyclical.
Concerns 5
m60
Leverage is a permanent feature
$3.32B net debt vs $26M cash; $71M short-term debt > liquid cash. Normal for REITs but means the business depends on continuous capital-market access; not a balance sheet that can absorb shocks unaided.
m50
Persistent share-count creep with no offsetting buyback
Diluted shares 182.9M → 200.1M (+9.4% over 4yrs, ~2.3%/yr CAGR), buyback/SBC = 0. Per-share growth is being taxed by equity issuance every year.
m25
Beneish M flag inconsistent with rest of picture
M-score -1.67 is above the -1.78 threshold, but high OCF/NI and negative accruals argue this is mechanical (margin expansion, asset growth) not manipulation. Worth noting, not a red flag.
m25
Gross margin line is noisy
GM% jumps 19.9→46.9→49.4→37.6 — likely reclassification of operating costs across periods rather than real product economics, but the inconsistency reduces confidence in segment-level reads.
m15
Insider tape neutral, slightly soft
Zero open-market buys in last 12 months, one small sale ($201K), rest are awards/gifts. No conviction signal from insiders.
This is a quietly high-quality real-estate operator — the kind of business that just compounds rents in a hard-to-replicate asset class. Earnings are cash-real, margins are expanding, and the model is defensive. But I won't call it a fortress because two things genuinely matter to per-unit quality: (1) the balance sheet is structurally levered with $3.3B of net debt and minimal cash buffer — that's a REIT reality but it's still a dependency, and (2) the share count grinds higher ~2.3%/yr with no buyback offset, so a chunk of the operating progress gets diluted away before it reaches a per-share basis. Net: a solid, well-run business I'd own as a quality holding without flinching on accounting integrity — but it's not in the elite tier where the math takes care of itself.
Verify before trusting this (7)
  • Debt maturity ladder and weighted-average interest rate — how much of the $3.32B net debt rolls in the next 24 months and at what spread
  • Whether the ~2.3%/yr share growth is ATM issuance funding acquisitions/development (accretive) or compensation-related (dilutive)
  • Same-property NOI growth vs headline revenue growth — to confirm organic strength vs acquired growth
  • RV/marina segment exposure and any softness post-COVID normalization (RV demand has been volatile industry-wide)
  • Reason for GM% reclassification swings between 2021, 2022-24, and 2025 — accounting policy change?
  • Geographic concentration (Florida exposure) and hurricane/insurance cost trajectory
  • Dividend payout ratio and AFFO coverage — required REIT distribution vs retained capital for reinvestment
Valuation / Mispricing
-61
Rich
edge √Σ 39 · risk √Σ 100 · conf 7/10
Price $64.83 vs deserved ~$58-62 — roughly 5-10% above fair, no margin of safety. attractive below $55.00

ELS at $64.83 trades at roughly 22-24x forward AFFO and a sub-5% implied cap rate on its MH/RV portfolio — both at the high end of the residential REIT complex despite mid-single-digit FFO growth. The e2e synthesis flagged 'Priced for Perfection,' which fits: the price embeds durable 5-6% rent escalators, no occupancy slippage, no cap-rate normalization, and a benign rate path. That is a lot of good news already in the tape.

Deserved value, even crediting the Solid quality grade and clean earnings, lands roughly in the high $50s to low $60s — call it ~$58-62 on a quality-adjusted basis. The $3.3B net debt load and ongoing share creep argue against paying a premium to that range. Against $64.83, the gap is unfavorable by ~5-10%; nothing screams short, but nothing offers a real cushion either. The bull case (demographics, irreplaceable assets) is the consensus view and is the reason the multiple is already full.

Cheap signals 2
m30
Earnings quality is clean
Good earnings quality (score 1) means no haircut required — AFFO is cash-real, which supports the upper end of the deserved range but does not justify paying above it.
m25
Irreplaceable asset base supports floor
423 MH/RV communities with 10+ year tenure and zoning moats put a hard floor under deserved value — the stock is unlikely to derate violently absent a macro shock.
Rich / priced-in 3
m70
Priced for perfection on AFFO multiple
~22-24x forward AFFO sits at the top of the residential REIT range and assumes uninterrupted 5-6% rent growth and stable cap rates. Any modest disappointment compresses the multiple meaningfully.
m55
Implied cap rate near cycle lows
Sub-5% implied cap rate on the portfolio leaves little room if private-market MH/RV cap rates normalize 50-100 bps higher in a sustained higher-for-longer rate regime.
m45
Leverage caps the deserved premium
$3.3B net debt with thin cash buffer means refinancing risk and rate sensitivity are real — a levered balance sheet should trade at a discount, not a premium, to peers.
I respect the business but I'm not paying $64.83 for it. This is a fully-priced, well-understood compounder where the multiple already credits the durability story — there's no gap for me to harvest. I'd need it in the mid-$50s before the math gets interesting, ideally on a rate scare or a soft RV-segment print rather than anything structural. Fair valued bordering on rich; pass at this price.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • 2024/2025 same-store NOI growth guidance and rent escalator assumptions
  • Debt maturity schedule and weighted-average cost of debt vs current refi rates
  • Transaction-market cap rates for recent MH/RV portfolio deals
  • Share count trend and ATM issuance activity
  • Any state-level rent control developments in core markets (FL, CA, AZ)
General Sentiment
-5
Balanced
tail √Σ 50 · head √Σ 55 · conf 7/10

ELS is the textbook 'no-story' steady compounder: minimal narrative intensity, low cult coefficient, durable but boring archetype. That means very little of the price is sentiment-driven, so neither macro euphoria nor narrative panic moves this name much. With beta 0.68 and a defensive manufactured-housing/RV cash-flow profile, the neutral S&P tape (score +11, VIX 17.3) barely registers here. The dominant non-fundamental force is the rate backdrop - 10y at 4.48% is a persistent, low-grade headwind for all residential REITs and weighs on multiple even when operations are fine. Analyst tone is quietly supportive: 13 Buys vs 8 Holds, zero Sells, and a $70.83 target implying about 13% upside to spot. But revisions have stalled (0 this month, $0 avg change), which signals the sell side is not actively pushing the story higher - tone is constructive but inert. Momentum is positive on a multi-year basis and deleveraging (D/E 2.46 to 1.90) is a quiet tailwind for credit-sensitive narrative observers. Net: a small rate/REIT-cohort headwind offset by defensive low-beta positioning and a constructive but sleepy analyst posture. Sentiment is not a meaningful driver here in either direction.

Tailwinds 3
m35
Defensive beta in a neutral tape
Beta 0.68 and manufactured-housing cash flows mean ELS is largely insulated from the modest risk-off twitches (VIX 17.3, S&P -1.8% off highs). In a neutral regime this defensiveness is a quiet relative tailwind.
m30
Constructive but inert analyst posture
13 Buys, 0 Sells, target $70.83 vs $62.62 spot implies ~13% upside. Supportive base, but zero revisions this month means the sell side is not actively pushing the narrative - tone helps on the margin, no more.
m20
Deleveraging signal
D/E moving from 2.46 to 1.90 reduces credit-cycle anxiety, a quiet positive for income-oriented holders evaluating the name.
Headwinds 3
m45
Rates pressure REIT cohort
10y at 4.48% keeps cap-rate math unfavorable and the residential REIT group out of favor with yield-sensitive allocators. It is a persistent drag on multiple even with stable FFO.
m25
No narrative to defend multiple
Narrative intensity is minimal and cult coefficient low - there is no story premium cushion. In a rotation away from rate-sensitive yield names, nothing carries the stock; it just drifts with cap rates.
m20
Latent reputational/regulatory tail
The 'slumlord REIT' framing and rent-control activism are dormant but durable bear hooks that can flare into headline risk. Not active now, but a known sentiment overhang for the manufactured-housing model.
My read: sentiment is close to a non-event here, which is itself the story. ELS has almost no narrative premium to lose and almost no cult to lift it, so the only real non-fundamental force is the rate tape, and that is a mild persistent headwind on the residential REIT cohort. Analyst tone is supportive but stalled, defensive beta mutes the macro chop, and there is no active news catalyst either way. I lean Balanced with a faint headwind tilt - this stock will move on cap rates and FFO, not sentiment.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Direction of the 10y - a move back below 4% would lift the whole residential REIT cohort and ELS with it
  • Any rent-control or manufactured-housing regulatory headline that could activate the dormant bear narrative
  • Whether analyst revisions break their flatline (positive or negative) after the next FFO print
  • Sector rotation flows - REIT ETF (VNQ/IYR) momentum is a better tell on this name than single-stock news
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
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Three lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), and General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Deep Analysis
Last run: Jun 15, 2026 3:05:35 am

Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.

0 Company Classification — What type of company is this?
1 Industry Landscape — Where is the industry headed?
2 Company Momentum — Where is this company trending?
3 Forward Projection — 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a DCF Valuation — Present value of future cash flows
4b Earnings Power Value — Floor value — worth with zero growth
4c Anchored PE — Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
4d Reverse DCF — What growth is the market pricing in?
4e Revenue-Based DCF — For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4f Anchored P/S — Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4g Scenario Analysis — Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4h Dividend Discount Model — For dividend/income stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4i Book Value Analysis — For deep value / turnaround stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4j Insider Activity — Are insiders buying or selling?
4f Cash Flow Quality — How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g Debt Maturity Risk — Can it handle its debt?
4h Macro Environment — Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i Sector Intelligence — How does this company compare within its sector?
4j Revenue Confidence — How reliable is the growth projection?
4k Sensitivity Analysis — How fragile is the fair value estimate?
4l Sector Demand Cycle — Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5 AI Investigation — Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b Thesis Evaluation — What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
6 Valuation Synthesis — Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 15, 2026 3:06am (12d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $1.3B $1.4B $1.4B $1.4B $1.5B
Cost of Revenue $1.1B $730.4M $731.7M $725.3M $955.1M
Gross Profit $262.1M $644.6M $672.5M $708.0M $576.3M
Operating Expenses -$120.9M $294.9M $299.4M $292.1M $58.4M
Operating Income $382.9M $349.7M $373.1M $415.9M $517.9M
Net Income $262.5M $284.6M $314.2M $367.0M $386.5M
EBITDA $572.4M $622.4M $660.6M $731.6M $607.7M
EPS $1.43 $1.53 $1.69 $1.96 $1.93
EPS (Diluted) — — — — —
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 15, 2026 3:00am (12d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $94.1M $2.6M $4.2M $5.6M $26.1M
Total Current Assets $163.4M $67.7M $79.9M $75.3M $119.5M
Total Assets $5.3B $5.5B $5.6B $5.6B $5.7B
Current Liabilities $896.5M $785.1M $627.5M $694.2M $71.3M
Long-Term Debt $2.9B $3.2B $3.5B $3.1B $3.3B
Total Liabilities $3.8B $4.0B $4.1B $3.8B $3.9B
Total Equity $1.4B $1.4B $1.4B $1.7B $1.8B
Retained Earnings -$183.7M -$204.2M -$223.6M -$215.0M -$225.0M
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 15, 2026 3:06am (12d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $509.0M $475.8M $548.0M $596.7M $571.1M
Capital Expenditure -$204.3M -$249.3M -$317.1M -$241.3M -$237.1M
Free Cash Flow $304.8M $226.5M $230.9M $355.4M $334.1M
Acquisitions (net) -$91.5M -$26.4M -$9.3M -$10.3M -$9.7M
Debt Repayment — — — — —
Dividends Paid — — — — —
Stock Buybacks $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Net Change in Cash $99.3M -$101.1M $7.6M -$5.4M $1.6M
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 15, 2026 3:00am (12d ago)
Metric 2027 2028 2029 2030
Revenue $1.6B
$1.6B – $1.7B
 $1.7B
$1.7B – $1.7B
 $1.9B
$1.8B – $1.9B
 $1.9B
$1.8B – $2.0B
EBITDA $743.0M
$715.9M – $761.2M
 $775.5M
$769.0M – $782.0M
 $841.4M
$805.7M – $861.3M
 $873.0M
$835.9M – $893.7M
Net Income $438.4M
$435.1M – $441.6M
 $473.8M
$468.7M – $478.9M
 $490.3M
$463.2M – $505.4M
 $510.3M
$482.1M – $526.0M
EPS — — — —
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 15, 2026 3:06am (12d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +4.5% +2.1% +2.1% +6.8%
Gross Profit Growth +146.0% +4.3% +5.3% -18.6%
Operating Income Growth -8.7% +6.7% +11.5% +24.5%
Net Income Growth +8.4% +10.4% +16.8% +5.3%
EBITDA Growth +8.7% +6.1% +10.7% -16.9%
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 15, 2026 3:05am (12d ago)
Type codes PPurchase SSale AAward / grant MOption exercise FIn-kind (tax) CConversion GGift DReturn to issuer
All SEC Form 4 codes
Open market
P Purchase
Open-market or private purchase of shares.
S Sale
Open-market or private sale of shares.
Compensation (Rule 16b-3)
A Award / grant
Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
D Return to issuer
Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
F In-kind (tax)
Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
I Discretionary
Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
M Option exercise
Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
Derivatives
C Conversion
Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
E Short expiration
Expiration of a short derivative position.
H Long expiration
Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
O OTM exercise
Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
X ITM exercise
Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
Other exempt
G Gift
Bona fide gift of securities.
L Small acquisition
Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
W Inheritance
Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
Z Voting trust
Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
Other
J Other
Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
K Equity swap
Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
U Tender / buyout
Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.

Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.

Date Insider Type Shares Price Value
2026-05-01 CONTIS DAVID J G-Gift 802.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-01 CONTIS DAVID J G-Gift 111.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-01 CONTIS DAVID J G-Gift 111.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-01 CONTIS DAVID J G-Gift 802.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-01 Freedman Constance A-Award 60.00 $53.77 $3,226
2026-04-28 HENEGHAN THOMAS A-Award 1,595.00 $62.60 $99,847
2026-04-28 HENEGHAN THOMAS A-Award 14,375.00 $62.60 $899,875
2026-04-28 Peppet Scott R A-Award 320.00 $62.60 $20,032
2026-04-28 Peppet Scott R A-Award 2,316.00 $62.60 $144,982
2026-04-28 Papandreou Radhika A-Award 120.00 $62.60 $7,512
2026-04-28 Papandreou Radhika A-Award 2,316.00 $62.60 $144,982
2026-04-28 Freedman Constance A-Award 240.00 $62.60 $15,024
2026-04-28 Freedman Constance A-Award 2,316.00 $62.60 $144,982
2026-04-29 CONTIS DAVID J G-Gift 196.00 $0.00 $0
2026-04-29 CONTIS DAVID J G-Gift 104.00 $0.00 $0
2026-04-29 CONTIS DAVID J G-Gift 758.00 $0.00 $0
2026-04-28 CONTIS DAVID J A-Award 200.00 $62.60 $12,520
2026-04-28 CONTIS DAVID J A-Award 319.00 $62.60 $19,969
2026-04-28 CONTIS DAVID J A-Award 2,316.00 $62.60 $144,982
2026-04-29 CONTIS DAVID J G-Gift 758.00 $0.00 $0
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jun 15, 2026 3:00am (12d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-06-26 $0.54 2026-04-28 2026-06-26 2026-07-10
2026-03-27 $0.54 2026-02-03 2026-03-27 2026-04-10
2025-12-26 $0.52 2025-10-28 2025-12-26 2026-01-09
2025-09-26 $0.52 2025-07-29 2025-09-26 2025-10-10
2025-06-27 $0.52 2025-04-29 2025-06-27 2025-07-11
2025-03-28 $0.52 2025-02-06 2025-03-28 2025-04-11
2024-12-27 $0.48 2024-10-30 2024-12-27 2025-01-10
2024-09-27 $0.48 2024-07-30 2024-09-27 2024-10-11
2024-06-28 $0.48 2024-04-30 2024-06-28 2024-07-12
2024-03-27 $0.48 2024-02-06 2024-03-28 2024-04-12
2023-12-28 $0.45 2023-10-24 2023-12-29 2024-01-12
2023-09-28 $0.45 2023-07-25 2023-09-29 2023-10-13
2023-06-29 $0.45 2023-04-25 2023-06-30 2023-07-14
2023-03-30 $0.45 2023-02-07 2023-03-31 2023-04-14
2022-12-29 $0.41 2022-10-27 2022-12-30 2023-01-13
2022-09-29 $0.41 2022-07-26 2022-09-30 2022-10-14
2022-06-23 $0.41 2022-04-28 2022-06-24 2022-07-08
2022-03-24 $0.41 2022-03-03 2022-03-25 2022-04-08
2021-12-30 $0.36 2021-10-26 2021-12-31 2022-01-14
2021-09-23 $0.36 2021-07-26 2021-09-24 2021-10-08
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for ELS — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Delvantic AI Findings
Independent analyst synthesis · Delvantic - Cairn AI · generated 2026-06-15 03:06:12
Reviews the pipeline's own verdicts
Verdict I dissent from "Priced for Perfection" — that's overwrought given a 4.4% revenue CAGR and a defensible MH niche — but I also reject the implied "buy here" read from the market-forces neutral stance. At $64.83 with 32x earnings, 7.9x sales, and a 2.7% FCF yield, ELS is priced for a 4% terminal rate world and steady 5-6% FFO growth. If the 10-year stays at 4.2%+ and that gross margin compression is structural, fair value is closer to $55-58 (a 10% derate). If rates fall toward 3.5% and the margin issue is a reporting artifact, $75+ is defensible. The asymmetry currently favors patience: you're not being paid enough yield (3.3%) to own a low-growth, rate-sensitive REIT at peer-premium multiples when SUI trades cheaper with similar assets. Insider activity is all awards and gifts — zero open-market buying — which is mildly negative signal-confirming. Wait for either a rate-driven derate to the high-$50s or clarification on the gross margin step-down before committing capital.

Starting from the raw numbers: ELS is doing $1.53B TTM revenue growing ~7% YoY in the most recent quarter, with net margins oscillating 21-30% quarter to quarter (seasonal RV pattern). The 5-year revenue CAGR is 4.4% — this is a low-single-digit grower, full stop. Net income compounded faster (10.9%) largely because 2021's op margin was depressed and the base normalized. The "20.3% FCF CAGR" the synthesis model is panicking about is a base-effect artifact off a low 2021 starting point, not a forward run-rate. Operating cash flow of $571M against a $12.57B market cap is a ~4.5% operating yield; FCF of $334M is a 2.7% FCF yield. Add the 3.34% dividend and you're getting paid roughly a 6% blended return assuming low-single-digit rent escalators — which is exactly what a mature MH/RV REIT should yield in a ~4% 10-year world. Not cheap, not absurd.

Where I disagree with the prior stack: the Valuation Synthesis verdict of "Priced for Perfection" leaning on "30.9% implied FCF growth" is mis-specified. No serious analyst underwrites ELS at 30% FCF growth — the sell-side models 4-6% same-site NOI growth and 5-7% FFO/share growth, which is what the 32x P/E and 26x EV/EBITDA actually embed once you adjust for REIT accounting (depreciation overstates economic decay on land-heavy MH parks; P/AFFO is the right lens and would be closer to ~22-24x). The Market Forces "thin interest coverage" claim can't be evaluated because total debt is literally missing from the file — that's a real gap, not a thesis. The Narrative Economics read is the most honest of the bunch: this is a spreadsheet stock, narrative-minimal, anchored to cap rates. I agree with that framing.

The contrarian case nobody's making forcefully enough: ELS trades at a meaningful premium to peers (SUI, AMH) on every multiple, and the premium has historically been justified by best-in-class same-site NOI growth (5-6% vs. apartment REITs at 2-3%) and irreplaceable infill locations (Florida/Arizona/California coast). But the stock is down materially from its 2021-2022 highs near $90, and the rate-sensitive REIT trade has been a value trap for three years running. The real risk isn't "rent control activism" — it's that Florida hurricane insurance costs are eating into MH park margins (note gross margin compressed from 49% in 2024 to 38% in 2025 — that's a *huge* shift and the synthesis layer didn't flag it). That gross margin collapse from $708M to $576M on rising revenue is the single most important number in this file and it's being ignored. Either it's a reclassification (likely — REIT segment reporting changes happen) or it's a genuine cost-structure deterioration, and I can't tell which from the data given.

GPT Critique
Second-opinion review · gpt-4o · generated 2026-06-15 03:06:21
Reviews the Opus findings above
Verdict I agree with Opus on the overvaluation at $64.83, but I'd peg fair value closer to $55, aligning with structural margin concerns and potential interest rate impacts.

The raw data on Equity LifeStyle Properties, Inc. (ELS) presents a picture of a mature REIT with steady revenue growth but signals potential underlying issues that deserve attention. The quarterly revenue shows a consistent improvement, from $367.5M in early 2025 to $397.6M in early 2026, indicating a 6.8% YoY growth rate. However, net income margins are volatile, ranging from 21.4% to 29.7%, which suggests some instability, potentially due to seasonal factors or cost pressures. The annual figures reinforce a narrative of steady but modest growth, with a 5-year revenue CAGR of 4.4% and earnings growing at 10.9%. Yet, the gross margin dropped significantly from 49% in 2024 to 37.6% in 2025, which might indicate rising costs or operational inefficiencies that are not fully addressed in the narrative.

I agree with Opus's dismissal of the "Priced for Perfection" thesis. The argument that ELS is being priced for an improbable growth trajectory is not supported by the data. The market's pricing of ELS seems more aligned with expectations of stable, incremental growth typical of a mature REIT rather than explosive expansion. The PE ratio of 32.6x and EV/EBITDA of 26.0x, while high, are reflective of a stable income-generating asset in a low interest rate environment. However, I diverge from Opus's relatively benign view of the gross margin compression. This decline is critical and may suggest underlying cost issues, possibly linked to insurance premiums or operational inefficiencies, that could undermine future profitability if persistent.

Opus's criticism of the missing debt data is valid but incomplete without acknowledging the potential implications of such gaps. The absence of debt figures makes it difficult to assess ELS's financial leverage and interest coverage, which are crucial for evaluating risk in a rising interest rate environment. Moreover, Opus's suggestion of a rate-driven derate to the high-$50s as a buying opportunity seems overly optimistic without clarity on the gross margin issue. The insider transactions, primarily consisting of awards and gifts with no significant open-market buys, add to a cautious outlook, indicating that insiders may not be particularly confident in ELS's current valuation.

A careful skeptic of both analyses might argue that the market's current pricing reflects a reasonable balance of ELS's defensive characteristics and the inherent risks in its operating environment. They would point out that the stable cash flow generation and dividend yield are attractive in a volatile market, but the margin compression and potential cost headwinds are significant risks that justify the market's caution. Moreover, the lack of insider buying could be interpreted as a signal that even those closest to the company see limited upside at current valuations.

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My Notes personal — only you see this
Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · fmp
v1.1.352 · d1100787 · 2026-06-26 11:39:30