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AGING Analysis Report
Sep 2, 2026
21 days ago · 100% complete
SEC data is missing this company's latest quarter
SEC data is missing this company's latest quarter: the SEC's companyfacts (refetched) ends at 2026-03-31 while its index lists a statement period 2026-06-30 — the SEC's aggregation omitted the filing; not recoverable from any archive we read Found by the Foundation Sweep four-quarter pass 2026-09-11; held under the four-quarter coverage policy (2026-09-11) and released automatically once the pass resolves it.
This page shows our last published analysis, from Sep 2, 2026. It is not being updated, and new reports can't be run for this company.
For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page

What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for PPG Industries, Inc. (PPG) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.

Our current read (analysis of 2026-09-11): Designation Low · Gem Score -24 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 33 · Value -62 · Sentiment -46 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $94.37 vs $109.70 at analysis

Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable reference-name attribute you can cite):

  • profile-header / price-overview — company profile, live quote, market cap
  • extended-analysisthe core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memo
  • future-predictions — our forward price-band predictions
  • market-narrative / ai-findings / gpt-critique — narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)
  • Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers): price-history, income-trend, key-metrics, financials (statement tables), insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.

More for machine readers: site briefing at /llms.txt · any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER · raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds); every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.

PPG Industries, Inc.

PPG NYSE
Basic Materials · Specialty Chemicals
Pittsburgh, PA 15272, United States ppg.com Updated Sep 2, 3:00am
Price
$109.70
Market Cap
$24.4B
Employees
43,500
Beta
1.06
Avg Volume
1,672,623
Last Dividend
$2.87
CEO
Mr. Timothy M. Knavish

PPG Industries, Inc. is a global materials company that develops and manufactures paints, coatings, and specialty products used across a wide range of industries. PPG serves construction, automotive, aerospace, industrial, packaging, transportation, and consumer markets through offerings such as architectural paints, protective and marine coatings, automotive OEM and refinish coatings, industrial coatings, traffic solutions, sealants, adhesives, and specialty materials. The company also provides products for glass, optical, and related surface technologies, supporting applications that protect, decorate, and improve performance in everyday and commercial environments. Headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, PPG operates worldwide and is known for supplying solutions to both manufacturers and end customers through retail channels, distributors, and direct business relationships.

Runs with full report Generated: Sep 2, 2026 3:45am
Price Overview
Price at report time
$109.70
as of Sep 2, 3:00am (21d ago)
Change · Sep 2
-2.47 (-2.20%)
Day Range
$109.09 – $111.79
52-Week Range
$93.39 – $133.43
50-Day MA
$116.32
200-Day MA
$111.16
Volume
1,435,404.00
Right now · live
Log in to get the live feed
Members see the real-time price and the move since this report (over 21d).
Share Structure
Outstanding 222,300,000.00
Float 221,815,386.00
Free Float 99.8%
High free float — 99.8% of shares trade freely, ~0.2% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Sep 2, 2026 4:03am (21d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Sep 2, 2026 3:45am (21d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
TD Twelve Data statement HEX SEC filing
Industry comparison last run: Sep 2, 2026 3:41am
P/E · trailing (TTM) (Price per dollar of earnings over the past year — not a run-rate or forward P/E)
HEX
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
15.81
Stock Price: $109.70
EPS (Diluted): 6.94
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
HEX
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
3.08
Stock Price: $109.70
Total Equity: $8.10B
Shares: 227,100,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
HEX
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
9.58
Market Cap: $24.39B
Total Debt: $8.01B
Cash: $2.16B
EBITDA: $3.20B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
HEX
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$30.7B
Market Cap: $24.39B
Total Debt: $8.01B
Cash: $2.16B
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
HEX
Gross Profit / Revenue
41.3%
Gross Profit: $6.56B
Revenue: $15.88B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
HEX
Operating Income / Revenue
16.8%
Operating Income: $2.67B
Revenue: $15.88B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
HEX
Net Income / Revenue
9.9%
Net Income: $1.58B
Revenue: $15.88B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
HEX
Net Income / Total Equity
19.5%
Net Income: $1.58B
Total Equity: $8.10B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
HEX
NOPAT / Invested Capital
14.9%
Operating Income: $2.67B
Tax Rate: 22.4%
Equity: $8.10B
Total Debt: $8.01B
Cash: $2.16B
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
HEX
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
1.62
Current Assets: $7.96B
Current Liabilities: $4.90B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
HEX
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.99
Short-Term Debt: $706.00M
Long-Term Debt: $7.30B
Total Debt: $8.01B
Total Equity: $8.10B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
HEX
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$69.90
Revenue: $15.88B
Shares: 227,100,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
HEX
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$35.65
Total Equity: $8.10B
Shares: 227,100,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
HEX
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$5.12
Operating CF: $1.94B
CapEx: -$778.00M
Shares: 227,100,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
TD
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
2.6%
Last Dividend: $2.87
Stock Price: $109.70
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
HEX
Dividends Paid / Net Income
39.8%
Dividends Paid: -$628.00M
Net Income: $1.58B
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Sep 2, 2026 3:39am
Compares PPG against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Sep 2, 2026 3:45am (21d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $16.8B $17.7B $18.2B $15.8B $15.9B
Cost of Revenue $10.3B $11.1B $10.7B $9.3B $9.3B
Gross Profit $6.5B $6.6B $7.5B $6.6B $6.6B
Operating Expenses $4.3B $4.5B $4.8B $3.8B $3.9B
Operating Income $2.2B $2.0B $2.7B $2.8B $2.7B
Net Income $1.4B $1.0B $1.3B $1.1B $1.6B
EBITDA $2.7B $2.6B $3.2B $3.2B $3.2B
EPS $6.06 $4.34 $5.38 $4.77 $6.96
EPS (Diluted) $6.01 $4.32 $5.35 $4.75 $6.94
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Sep 2, 2026 3:00am (21d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $1.0B $1.1B $1.5B $1.3B $2.2B
Total Current Assets $6.8B $7.2B $7.4B $6.6B $8.0B
Total Assets $21.4B $20.7B $21.6B $19.4B $22.1B
Current Liabilities $4.8B $4.7B $5.1B $5.0B $4.9B
Long-Term Debt $6.6B $6.8B $6.1B $5.8B $7.3B
Total Liabilities $14.9B $14.0B $13.6B $12.5B $14.0B
Total Equity $6.4B $6.7B $8.0B $7.0B $8.1B
Retained Earnings $20.4B $20.8B $21.5B $22.0B $22.9B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Sep 2, 2026 4:03am (21d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $1.6B $963.0M $2.4B $1.4B $1.9B
Capital Expenditure -$371.0M -$518.0M -$549.0M -$721.0M -$778.0M
Free Cash Flow $1.2B $445.0M $1.9B $699.0M $1.2B
Acquisitions (net) -$2.1B -$114.0M -$109.0M -$31.0M -$1.0M
Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) -$850.0M $0 -$300.0M -$300.0M -$1.0B
Dividends Paid -$536.0M -$570.0M -$598.0M -$622.0M -$628.0M
Stock Buybacks -$210.0M -$190.0M -$86.0M -$752.0M -$790.0M
Net Change in Cash -$821.0M $94.0M $415.0M -$223.0M $893.0M
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Sep 2, 2026 3:45am (21d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +5.1% +3.4% -13.2% +0.2%
Gross Profit Growth +0.6% +14.4% -12.1% -0.5%
Operating Income Growth -5.9% +31.0% +3.0% -2.9%
Net Income Growth -28.7% +23.8% -12.1% +41.2%
EBITDA Growth -5.0% +24.5% +0.4% -1.4%
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 31, 2026 9:55am (22d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-08-10 $0.74
2026-05-11 $0.71
2026-02-20 $0.71
2025-11-10 $0.71
2025-08-11 $0.71
2025-05-12 $0.68
2025-02-21 $0.68
2024-11-12 $0.68
2024-08-12 $0.68
2024-05-09 $0.65
2024-02-15 $0.65
2023-11-09 $0.65
2023-08-09 $0.65
2023-05-09 $0.62
2023-02-16 $0.62
2022-11-09 $0.62
2022-08-09 $0.62
2022-05-09 $0.59
2022-02-17 $0.59
2021-11-09 $0.59
0Company Classification 1Industry Landscape 2Company Momentum 3Forward Projection 4aDCF Valuation 4bEarnings Power Value 4cAnchored PE 4dReverse DCF 4eRevenue-Based DCF 4fAnchored P/S 4gScenario Analysis 4hDividend Discount Model 4iBook Value Analysis 4jInsider Activity 4fCash Flow Quality 4gDebt Maturity Risk 4hMacro Environment 4iSector Intelligence 4jRevenue Confidence 4kSensitivity Analysis 4lSector Demand Cycle 5AI Investigation 5bThesis Evaluation 6Valuation Synthesis
computed not applicable 18 computed · 6 not applicable
Risk : Reward — upside vs downside from this company's own quarters
Computed 2026-09-06 19:25
-0.5 : 1 +1σ upside vs −1σ downside, from this company's own quarterly history
A +1σ run of quarters pays -27%; a −1σ run costs 61%. Ratio -0.5:1 (μ -0.4%, σ 7.7% , 16 pairs).
Older method (repeat-worst-quarter): -0.7 : 1
CaseGrowthMarginFair valuevs price ($109.70)
Bull — recovery +2% 11.3% $69.84 -36%
Base — stabilizes +1% 9.8% $60.81 -45%
Bear — keeps slipping +1% 8.4% $52.08 -53%
Stress — last quarter repeats -1% 9.3% $54.23 -51%
Upside — a +1σ run of quarters (v2) +7% 10.7% $79.80 -27%
Stress — a −1σ run of quarters (v2) -8% 9.3% $42.86 -61%
The next quarters keep the trajectory of the worst recent matched quarter (ending 2025-06-30) — growth stays at -0.9% and margins bend by the same profit-vs-revenue ratio (×0.94). Stress is a trajectory, not a prediction — it answers "what if the ship's current heading simply continues," which history says is the case to respect.
Why this is appearing: this company files quarterly, so its recent trajectory could be measured rather than assumed — the engine matched Mar 2026 against the same quarter one year earlier and found revenue +6.7% · operating income +4.8% · net income +2.4% year-over-year. That measured heading is what the stress case extends forward. Of those, the stress case extends the worst matched quarter — the one ending Jun 30, 2025 (revenue -0.9%, operating income -6.7% YoY) — not the average. Data measured through Mar 31, 2026 — this card recalculates automatically when the next quarterly filing is ingested. Companies without quarterly filings (many foreign listings) never show this card: with no measured trajectory, there is nothing honest to repeat.
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for PPG — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Growth Outlook
Analyzed 2026-09-02 04:15

The question every valuation on this page silently assumes: is this company likely to grow? Judged forward — the business, its category, the world — against what's already printed.

Holding A mature, post-divestiture coatings franchise that is modestly out-growing a flat category — low-single-digit organic growth and self-help margin work, nowhere near the double-digit compounding the price assumes. conf 7/10
Share gain Category shrinking · Category (specialty chemicals / coatings) is flat-to-mildly contracting: industry revenue CAGR -0.6%, category median recent growth -1.4%. PPG is running slightly positive on a like-for-like basis (+0.2% recent YoY, +6.7% in the newest matched quarter), a ~+3.2pp gap to the industry.
Next 2 quarters
Holding
The newest matched quarter's +6.7% revenue is unlikely to repeat as a clean run-rate given the decelerating quarterly trend and low revenue confidence, but price/mix, refinish stability and aerospace backlog should keep the next two prints roughly flat to modestly positive with earnings up low single digits. Management's recent hit rate against estimates suggests no visibility shock.
≈ inline with expectations
Year 1
Holding
Full-year shape is flat-ish organic revenue with earnings supported by margin expansion and restructuring, offset by auto OEM build declines and soft European/Latin American architectural demand. Category direction gives no lift, so the year resolves near flat with modest EPS growth rather than a genuine growth year.
≈ inline with expectations
Years 2–3
Holding
Structurally, earnings power holds and edges up: a defensible position in aerospace/refinish, share gain against a shrinking industry, and durable margin recapture. But there is no volume engine — the category itself is contracting slightly, FCF conversion has been deteriorating (-21% CAGR), and portfolio simplification is a one-time reset rather than a compounding driver. Flat-to-modest earnings growth is the honest structural verdict.
↓ below expectations
The creme: each rung's call measured against what's already printed (vs analyst estimates · vs guidance / FY consensus · vs price-implied growth) — expectations in print are already in the price, so only the variant margin can pay. Hover a rung's chip for the margin read.
Growth drivers
43 Share gain in a flat category — Recent company YoY of ~+0.2% against industry -3.0% is a +3.2pp gap, and the newest matched quarter printed +6.7% revenue. In coatings, share is won through specification wins (aerospace, refinish, packaging) that are sticky for years, so a positive gap tends to persist rather than snap back.
43 Industry-wide gross margin expansion — +2.2pp over three years across specialty chemicals as raw-material and propellant/resin costs normalized while price increases stuck. PPG's price/mix discipline plus its own cost-restructuring program lets earnings grow faster than a ~flat top line — visible in the +11.4% multi-year earnings CAGR against a negative revenue CAGR.
36 Portfolio now weighted to higher-quality end markets — With the low-growth US architectural and silica businesses exited, the remaining mix skews to aerospace coatings (structural backlog, long qualification cycles), automotive refinish (aftermarket, collision-driven, not build-rate driven) and protective/marine. This is a more defensible growth base than the pre-divestiture company even though it shrank reported revenue.
20 Execution against estimates — Three of the last four prints met or beat (+16%, +3%, and a much smaller-than-expected seasonal loss), one missed by 1%. That pattern implies management has reasonable visibility and is not repeatedly surprised by its own demand — supportive of the near rungs, not of the structural rung.
Growth risks
53 Category is flat-to-shrinking — Industry revenue CAGR -0.6% and category median recent growth -1.4%. Coatings volume ultimately tracks auto builds, industrial production and construction starts; there is no category tailwind to lift PPG, so all growth must be taken from someone else or manufactured through price and cost.
48 Auto OEM and construction cyclicality with macro headwinds — Macro backdrop flagged as headwind with 10y at 4.75%. Global light-vehicle build and non-residential construction are the two largest volume levers; both are decelerating, and volume declines hit coatings margins harder than price gives back.
42 Decelerating internal trend and weak cash conversion — Revenue confidence is low (avg annual growth -6.5%, volatility 6.7%, quarterly trend labelled decelerating, not all years positive) and FCF CAGR is -21%. The single newest matched quarter (+6.7%) is a thin base for extrapolation, and operating income grew slower than revenue (+4.8% vs +6.7%), hinting at mix or cost leakage.
61 The bar embedded in expectations is far above the business — Price-implied growth of +16.4% versus a house projection of +1.0%. Nothing in a mature coatings portfolio — no product cycle, no new category, no take-rate mechanism — plausibly compounds mid-teens. This is a structural-rung problem, not a next-quarter problem.
The world PPG sells into is not expanding: mature global construction, softening auto build rates in Europe and China, and industrial production hovering. What has changed in PPG's favour is input-cost normalization — the industry captured +2.2pp of gross margin over three years — and PPG's own portfolio surgery, which removed the slowest-growing, lowest-margin businesses. So the forward shape is a flat-to-slightly-up top line with earnings growing a bit faster on price/mix and cost-out. Aerospace and refinish are genuine bright spots with long-dated demand; architectural EMEA/Latin America and auto OEM are the drags. Rates at 4.75% keep construction and big-ticket auto demand capped through the intermediate term. This is a GDP-minus category where a good operator can manufacture GDP-plus earnings — but not a growth story, and the reverse-DCF's 16.4% has no mechanism behind it in this world.
Growth position composite -29
ShrinkingStallingHoldingGrowingAccelerating
50Next 2 quarters · Holding
50Year 1 · Holding
50Years 2–3 · Holding
-29Composite (−100…+100)
A research prediction, not advice. Forward-graded: each rung is scored against the prints that follow it. Not an input to the GEM designation — track record first.
Claude Reading
Independent analyst synthesis · claude-opus-4-7 · generated 2026-09-02 04:02:47
Verdict Modestly overvalued — fair value $95-100 vs $109 current; wait for cyclical reset or a sub-$95 entry before adding, no urgency to sell quality compounder outright.

Looking at the raw quarterly tape first: revenue has actually been flat-to-down (Q1 2026 $3.93B vs Q2 2024 $4.24B, -7%), and the "earnings CAGR of 11.4%" is a base-effect artifact from the Q4 2024 -$280M charge. Strip that out and NI is running $1.55-1.60B annually — essentially flat since 2021's $1.44B. Revenue went from $18.25B (2023) to $15.88B (2025), a 13% top-line contraction largely from divestitures (architectural coatings US/Canada, silicas), so the "growth" story is really a portfolio-reshaping story. Margins have genuinely improved — gross 41.3%, operating 16.8%, ROIC 14.9% — but Q1 2026's 9.7% net margin is below the 2025 run-rate, and Q4 2025 came in at 7.7%. That's decelerating, not compounding.

On valuation: 15.8x P/E, 9.6x EV/EBITDA, 1.93x EV/sales for a business with ~zero organic growth and $8B of debt against $8.1B of equity (D/E ~1.0) is not obviously cheap. FCF of $1.16B on a $24.4B cap is a 4.75% FCF yield — thin for a no-growth cyclical. The synthesis composite of $99 (signal-adjusted $88) implying 20% downside strikes me as directionally right but perhaps overstated; peer specialty chemicals (SHW, RPM, AXTA) trade at premium multiples too, and PPG's post-divestiture ROIC of ~15% deserves some credit. Fair value in the $92-100 range feels more defensible than $88.

Where I part ways with the prior stack: Market Forces calling this a "value trap" with "permanent market share losses" is overreach — the revenue decline is explained by deliberate divestitures at reasonable multiples, not lost share. That's a sloppy read. But the Narrative layer's framing (paying a premium for "proven compounder" quality) is closer to right, and I'd tighten it: the market is pricing PPG as if the 2025 margin structure is the new normal, when Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 already suggest cyclical give-back is starting. Auto builds are softening, Chinese industrial demand is uneven, and US construction is rate-sensitive — all three end-markets are under pressure simultaneously. The classification as "mature earner" is fine; the pre-flight call of "fair value for normalized earnings" understates how much the current $1.58B NI already reflects cyclical peak margins and cost-out benefits that don't repeat.

The contrarian case worth taking seriously: PPG has done the hard work of pruning underperforming assets, has a cleaner portfolio focused on higher-margin industrial and performance coatings, and management has been aggressive on buybacks (share count reduction is doing real work on EPS). At $109, you're paying ~15x for a business that could inflect if auto and construction cycles turn, with a 2.6% dividend and 40% payout leaving room to grow it. Insider data is uninformative — grants only, no open-market buys or sells to read into. The bigger data problem is the "2026-03-31" quarterly datestamp, which suggests this file is either misdated or the freshest quarter is stale-labeled; either way, treating this as a real-time read requires a grain of salt. I'll agree directionally with the synthesis (overvalued) but dissent on the magnitude — $88 is too punitive, $95-100 is where I'd anchor fair value, making current $109 a ~10-15% overpay rather than 20%. Not a short, not a buy; a trim or a wait.

GPT Reading
Independent reading · gpt-5.4 · generated 2026-09-02 04:03:03
Verdict Fairly valued around $110 — high-quality margin resilience supports the stock, but with revenue still below 2023 levels and FCF only $1.16B, upside looks limited unless growth reappears; I’d need <$100 for a clear margin of safety.

What jumps out is that PPG is no longer a revenue growth story at all; it is a margin and capital-allocation story. Annual revenue was $18.25B in 2023 and is now $15.88B in 2025, down 13% in two years, yet operating income held roughly flat at $2.67B versus $2.68B and net income actually improved to $1.58B from $1.27B. The quarterlies tell the same story: sales remain stuck in a narrow $3.7B-$4.2B band, with 2026 Q1 at $3.93B versus $3.68B a year earlier, but profitability snapped back hard after the ugly 2024 Q4 loss. If I strip out that apparent one-time 2024 Q4 hit, PPG is earning around $1.5B-$1.8B in a flat-volume environment by defending gross margin near 41% and operating margin near 17%. That is a real strength, not financial engineering. A specialty coatings franchise that can absorb a revenue reset from $18B to $16B without impairing EBIT deserves more respect than a simple “cyclical decliner” label.

That said, the stock price already reflects a lot of that resilience. At $109.7, the equity is worth $24.4B; with $8.0B of debt and $2.2B of cash, enterprise value is roughly $30.2B. Against 2025 EBIT of $2.67B and EV/EBITDA of 9.6x, this is not expensive in absolute terms for a high-quality coatings asset, but it is also not cheap when revenue is flat to down and free cash flow is only $1.16B. That is a sub-5% FCF yield on market cap and about 3.8% on enterprise value. For a mature chemicals business facing macro-sensitive end markets, that leaves little room for disappointment. P/E of 15.8x looks optically reasonable, but it is being applied to what appears close to peak margin on a shrunken revenue base. If volumes weaken again or raw material tailwinds reverse, that earnings multiple can prove less benign than it looks.

My read is therefore more conservative than the “steady compounder” narrative but less bearish than the harsher overvaluation calls. The real contradiction in the data is this: the company’s economics are better than the revenue trend suggests, but the cash generation is worse than the earnings line suggests. Operating cash flow of $1.94B versus net income of $1.58B is fine, yet capex of $778M leaves only $1.16B of FCF, and the multi-year FCF trajectory is weaker than the earnings trajectory. Leverage is manageable at roughly 1.0x debt-to-equity and current ratio 1.62, but net debt of about $5.85B is material enough that this is not a balance sheet that can casually absorb a prolonged downturn while still buying growth. I come away viewing PPG as a solid business priced around fair value to a touch rich: the market is paying for durability, and durability is real, but there is no evidence in these numbers of a meaningful new growth leg.

The best argument against my caution is that I may be underestimating how good this business is structurally. ROIC of 14.9% and ROE of 19.5% are strong for an industrial chemicals name. Quarterly net margins rebounded from 10.1% in 2025 Q1 to 10.7%, 11.1%, 7.7%, then 9.7% in the latest quarter, suggesting normalized earnings power may indeed be rising despite sluggish demand. If 2024 Q4 was a true one-off and 2026 runs at something like $1.6B-$1.7B of net income with revenue stabilizing near $16B, then paying 15x-16x earnings is not aggressive; it is arguably what quality cyclicals deserve, especially with a 2.6% dividend and sub-10x EV/EBITDA. On that view, the stock is not pricing in growth so much as pricing in confidence that coatings remains a disciplined oligopoly with pricing power.

What would change my mind is simple. I would turn constructive if PPG can post two or three consecutive quarters of genuine top-line growth, not just easy comps—something like revenue sustainably above $4.1B per quarter while holding operating margin above 16.5% and converting that into annual FCF comfortably above $1.4B. That would show the company is not merely harvesting margins on a smaller base. I would turn more negative if revenue rolls back below $15.5B annualized, if gross margin slips below 40%, or if another quarter reveals earnings volatility of the kind seen in 2024 Q4 without a clearly non-recurring explanation. For now, this looks like a very good company at a price that mostly knows it.

Grok Reading
Independent reading · grok-4.5 · generated 2026-09-02 04:03:45
Verdict Fairly valued mature coatings earner at ~$110; 15.8× PE / 9.6× EV/EBITDA on $1.58B NI and ~4.8% FCF yield is mid-cycle fair, not the 20% rich call models imply

PPG’s numbers describe a company that deliberately shrank its top line and improved the quality of what remained. Revenue fell from $18.25B in 2023 to $15.85–15.88B in 2024–25, a roughly 13% step-down that drives the ugly −6.7% revenue CAGR and the “decelerating” quarterly label; the flat $15.88B print in 2025 and the latest quarter at $3.93B (up from $3.68B a year earlier) show the base has stabilized, not collapsed organically. On that smaller sales pool, operating income held at $2.67B versus $2.76B the prior year, net income jumped to $1.58B from $1.12B (the 2024 figure was distorted by a −$280M Q4 loss), and net margin sits at 9.9% with gross margin a solid 41.3%. ROE of 19.5% and ROIC of 14.9% on a near 1.0× debt-to-equity balance sheet ($8.01B debt, $2.16B cash, $8.10B equity) are not the profile of a deteriorating industrial. Free cash flow of $1.16B against a $24.4B market cap implies a ~4.8% FCF yield; add the 2.6% dividend at a 40% payout and the cash return package is real. At 15.8× trailing earnings, 9.6× EV/EBITDA and 1.57× sales, the market is paying a mid-cycle specialty-chemicals multiple for mid-teens returns on capital—not a growth premium and not a distressed discount.

The contradiction with the quantitative stack is sharp. The composite fair value of $99 and the signal-adjusted $88 bake the −21% FCF CAGR and “Market Headwinds / value trap” framing into a −20% overvaluation call. That framing overweights the FCF decline and underweights the earnings recovery and the portfolio cleanup that mechanically reduced revenue while lifting margins. Recent quarterly NI of $382M, $300M, $453M and $450M shows run-rate earnings power near the $1.5B+ already delivered in 2025; a 15–16× multiple on that run-rate is consistent with a mature earner, not with a stock priced for perfection. Insider activity is pure award noise and adds nothing. The narrative premium of ~25% over the engine’s $88 DCF exists, but it is moderate intensity and low cult coefficient—exactly what you would expect for a coatings compounder with pricing power, not froth.

The strongest case against this read is the cash-flow and cyclical tape. FCF fell hard enough to post a −21% CAGR even as reported earnings rose, so earnings quality is not pristine; working-capital or capex absorption ($778M) could keep converting NI into cash at a disappointing rate. End markets—auto OEM, construction, industrial—are late-cycle and the secondary signals flag macro headwinds and below-sector benchmarks. If organic volume stalls and raw-material tailwinds reverse, the 16.8% operating margin compresses and the 15.8× P/E becomes expensive in a hurry. A skeptic also notes that $1.16B of FCF on $24.4B of equity value leaves limited room for multiple expansion once the “cleaner portfolio” story is fully priced. I weigh those points as real risks that cap upside and justify only moderate conviction, not as proof the stock is 20% rich: the earnings power and returns on capital already embedded in the 2025 P&L support a mid-teens multiple closer to the current $110 than to $88.

What would flip the view is concrete. Two consecutive quarters of organic revenue growth above 3% with FCF conversion back above 80% of NI would push me to undervalued and a higher bull score; a print of trailing-twelve-month FCF below $900M or operating margin back under 14% while auto/construction indicators keep rolling over would confirm the value-trap thesis and mark the stock overvalued toward the low-$90s.

Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Each AI above independently stated a direction (undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued) and how strongly it believes it (conviction, 0–5). We combine those into a Bull-Bear Index on a 0–10 scale: 5 is neutral, 10 is maximum bullish (undervalued at full conviction), 0 is maximum bearish. We compute the score ourselves with the same arithmetic for every seat — the models never grade their own bullishness — so the three are directly comparable. Δ shows how far each seat sits from the panel average of 4.0; a large Δ marks the dissenting voice, usually the one worth reading.
Claude claude-opus-4-7 2.0
overvalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ -2.0 vs panel · self: 4.0
GPT gpt-5.4 5.0
fairly valued · conviction 4/5 · Δ +1.0 vs panel · self: 5.0
Grok grok-4.5 5.0
fairly valued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +1.0 vs panel · self: 5.0
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-09-02 04:18:35
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality — wait for a dip 7/10
Solid coatings compounder trading ~10-15% above deserved value into a quietly fading narrative — a wait-for-price name, not a buy here.
The cruxWhether $109.70 is worth paying for margin-and-buyback-driven EPS on a flat top line into a softening auto/construction cycle — I say no, not until it comes in.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from PPG's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionShare Count Shrinking
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The four lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+33
Solid
edge √Σ 113 · risk √Σ 79 · conf 7/10

PPG is a classic mature earner: revenue has actually contracted from $18.25B in 2023 to $15.88B in 2025 (partly divestitures), but gross margin expanded from 38.8% in 2021 to 41.3% in 2025 and operating margin nearly doubled from 12.9% to 16.8%. Net income of $1.58B in 2025 is the best of the five-year window, and OCF/NI of 1.29x with accruals at -1.8% of assets, a Beneish M of -2.45, and an Altman Z of 3.78 all corroborate clean, cash-backed earnings rather than accrual-driven optics. FCF at $1.16B is solid but lumpy (ranged from $445M to $1.86B across the period), so cash conversion is real but not perfectly smooth. Capital allocation is a strength: diluted shares fell from 239.4M to 227.1M (-1.3% CAGR), SBC is trivial at 0.3% of revenue, and buyback-to-SBC of 848% shows real per-share value concentration rather than optical buybacks offsetting comp. The concern is the balance sheet: net debt of roughly $5.79B against $2.22B liquid cash means leverage, not cushion, funds the buyback and dividend. With $1.16B FCF that is serviceable but constrains flexibility if margins slip or an end-market cycle turns. Overall a well-run, mid-cycle specialty chemicals business - not a fortress, but demonstrably disciplined.

Strengths 3
m70
Margin expansion despite flat revenue
Operating margin rose from 12.9% (2021) to 16.8% (2025) and gross margin from 38.8% to 41.3%, evidence of pricing power and mix/cost discipline in a mature business.
m65
Genuine per-share concentration
Diluted shares fell 239.4M to 227.1M with buybacks running 8.5x SBC and SBC only 0.3% of revenue - real capital return, not comp offset.
m60
Clean earnings quality
OCF/NI 1.29x, accruals -1.8% of assets, Beneish M -2.45, Altman Z 3.78 - mechanical checks show no manipulation signals.
Concerns 4
m55
Net debt is the balance-sheet reality
$5.79B net debt against $2.22B cash means leverage funds the buyback/dividend program; FCF of $1.16B services it but leaves limited slack in a downturn.
m45
Top-line stagnation/contraction
Revenue peaked at $18.25B in 2023 and is $15.88B in 2025 - partly divestiture-driven but overall organic growth is uninspiring for a mature earner.
m30
Lumpy FCF conversion
FCF swung from $1.86B (2023) to $699M (2024) to $1.16B (2025); underlying cash generation is solid but working-capital timing distorts single-year reads.
m15
No insider open-market signal
Tape shows only routine A-Award grants, no P or S transactions - neutral, but no conviction signal from management either way.
This is a well-run mature coatings business doing the right things - expanding margin, shrinking share count with real cash, keeping earnings honest. It is not a fortress because it runs on leverage rather than a net cash cushion, and the top line has gone sideways to down over five years, so the earnings growth is coming from margin and buybacks, not the underlying business getting bigger. I read it as solidly in the Solid bucket - a durable franchise with visible discipline, but with enough balance-sheet and growth caveats to keep it well short of Strong.
Verify before trusting this (6)
  • How much of the 2023-to-2025 revenue decline is divestiture (architectural coatings US/Canada sale) vs organic contraction
  • Debt maturity ladder and average coupon vs current rates - refinancing risk on the $5.79B net debt
  • Segment margin trend: are Performance Coatings and Industrial Coatings both expanding, or is mix flattering a weaker segment
  • Pension/OPEB obligations and any off-balance-sheet leverage
  • Customer/end-market concentration (auto OEM, aerospace, architectural) and cycle exposure
  • Restructuring charges embedded in operating margin - is 16.8% OpM clean or GAAP-flattered
Valuation / Mispricing
-62
Rich
edge √Σ 20 · risk √Σ 92 · conf 6/10
Price $109.70 vs deserved ~$90-95, roughly 10-18% overpaid - modestly rich, no margin of safety. attractive below $88.00

Composite fair value lands at $99.13 and the signal-adjusted FV at $88.01, both below the $109.70 price, implying -10% to -20% downside. The two conservative methods (DCF $68.05, EPV floor $61.43) frame a floor well beneath the price, while the anchored-PE of $198.97 is an obvious outlier that assumes multiple expansion I do not credit for a business with flat revenue - I discount it heavily. Splitting the difference around the composite, deserved value sits in the low-to-mid $90s. Earnings quality is high so no haircut is warranted, but the quality lens flagged leverage and a flat top line, which caps the multiple I am willing to pay. The market is paying a modest premium for margin expansion and buyback-driven EPS, which is a real story but already in the price. There is no margin of safety here; you are underwriting continued pricing discipline and cost-out through a softening auto/construction cycle. Fair to slightly rich, not a bargain.

Cheap signals 1
m20
Anchored-PE outlier at $198.97
An extreme upside method exists but assumes historical multiples on higher earnings - I discount it heavily given no revenue growth; it is a ceiling scenario, not a base case.
Rich / priced-in 4
m55
Price above composite FV
$109.70 vs composite $99.13 (-10%) and signal-adjusted $88.01 (-20%); no cushion at current levels.
m50
DCF and EPV well below price
DCF $68.05 and EPV floor $61.43 suggest cash-flow-based deserved value is ~35-45% under the market price - the premium is entirely a multiple story.
m45
Flat revenue funds the multiple with buybacks
Quality lens notes 5-year sideways-to-down top line; EPS growth comes from margin and share count, which is a lower-quality growth mix that does not deserve a premium multiple.
m30
Cyclical exposure not priced in
Auto OEM and construction end markets are softening; the current price bakes in pricing discipline holding through a slowdown, which is optimistic.
I read this as modestly rich - a good business the market already understands, priced ~10-20% above what the cash flows deserve. I want it closer to $88 before I get interested; at $109.70 you are paying full freight for buyback-driven EPS on a flat revenue base, and that is not the kind of setup where I want to be a buyer.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Forward volume guidance in auto refinish and industrial coatings
  • Price/mix vs raw material cost trajectory in next 2 quarters
  • Buyback pace and net leverage trend
  • Any restructuring one-offs distorting margin
General Sentiment
-46
Headwind
tail √Σ 44 · head √Σ 94 · conf 6/10

PPG sits in a neutral market regime (VIX 16, S&P -2% off highs) with a beta near 1, so the tape itself is not the story - the story is that the steady-compounder narrative is losing energy. Intensity is only moderate, durability is moderate, cult is low: nobody is defending this name in a drawdown. The stock has compounded at -6.7% and news flow leans mixed-to-soft (weak auto refinish, weak European demand, aerospace the only bright spot), which is exactly the kind of tape that lets a premium multiple bleed lower without any dramatic catalyst. Analyst tone as reflected in headlines is a tepid 'hold for now' and 'reasonable on earnings while returns stay weak' - faint praise that removes the marginal buyer. The marine coatings launches are real but too small to shift narrative gravity. Macro is a mild secondary headwind: 10y at 4.75% and market PE 25.8 pressure cyclicals-adjacent names, and coatings is levered to construction and auto - both of which the bear case is already flagging. Net: no strong tailwind is present, the narrative is drifting sideways-to-down, and the recent momentum tag is strong_negative. Pressure leans modestly negative.

Tailwinds 3
m30
Product-launch news drumbeat
PPG ONE RANGE marine coatings and POWERPACK tool at SMM 2026 give a modest positive news cadence and reinforce the innovation angle, but too small to reset the narrative.
m25
Neutral tape, not hostile
Regime score -3 and VIX 16 mean the macro backdrop is not actively punishing this profile; low-drama tape gives the stock room to base rather than break.
m20
Recent stabilization vs long-term drift
Recent 0.2% performance vs -6.7% CAGR hints selling pressure has cooled; sentiment is stale-negative rather than freshly deteriorating.
Headwinds 4
m55
Fading compounder narrative
Steady-compounder archetype with moderate intensity, moderate durability and low cult means no fan base to defend the multiple; premium-to-DCF status quietly erodes when the story stops accelerating.
m50
Damning-with-faint-praise analyst tone
Headlines cluster around 'hold for now' and 'reasonable valuation but weak returns' - the kind of lukewarm coverage that removes marginal buyers without triggering panic selling.
m45
Cyclical end-market anxiety
News flow explicitly flags weak auto refinish and soft European demand; with construction and auto OEM cycles wobbly, sector sentiment on coatings tilts defensive.
m35
Rates and market-PE overhang
10y at 4.75% and market PE 25.8 pressure premium-multiple industrials; beta 1.06 means PPG absorbs a full share of any risk-off flinch.
I read this as a modest but real headwind, not a crisis. The tape is neutral so macro is not doing the damage - the damage is a compounder narrative running out of gas with no cult to defend it, tepid analyst tone, and cyclical end-market worries that keep the marginal buyer sidelined. Beta 1.06 and premium-to-DCF status mean any risk-off flinch lands cleanly here, while nothing in the current news flow is strong enough to force a re-rating higher. Pressure leans down, but quietly.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Whether auto refinish and European volume commentary worsens on the next print - the trigger that would flip narrative from 'drifting' to 'breaking'
  • Any sector rotation into defensive industrials/coatings that could quietly re-rate this cohort
  • Analyst target revisions - a wave of cuts would confirm the fade; a stabilization would neutralize the headwind
  • Aerospace coatings momentum as a possible counter-narrative anchor
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
Growth Outlook
-29
Holding
edge √Σ 73 · risk √Σ 103 · conf 7/10

The world PPG sells into is not expanding: mature global construction, softening auto build rates in Europe and China, and industrial production hovering. What has changed in PPG's favour is input-cost normalization — the industry captured +2.2pp of gross margin over three years — and PPG's own portfolio surgery, which removed the slowest-growing, lowest-margin businesses. So the forward shape is a flat-to-slightly-up top line with earnings growing a bit faster on price/mix and cost-out. Aerospace and refinish are genuine bright spots with long-dated demand; architectural EMEA/Latin America and auto OEM are the drags. Rates at 4.75% keep construction and big-ticket auto demand capped through the intermediate term. This is a GDP-minus category where a good operator can manufacture GDP-plus earnings — but not a growth story, and the reverse-DCF's 16.4% has no mechanism behind it in this world.

Growth drivers 4
m43
Share gain in a flat category
Recent company YoY of ~+0.2% against industry -3.0% is a +3.2pp gap, and the newest matched quarter printed +6.7% revenue. In coatings, share is won through specification wins (aerospace, refinish, packaging) that are sticky for years, so a positive gap tends to persist rather than snap back.
m43
Industry-wide gross margin expansion
+2.2pp over three years across specialty chemicals as raw-material and propellant/resin costs normalized while price increases stuck. PPG's price/mix discipline plus its own cost-restructuring program lets earnings grow faster than a ~flat top line — visible in the +11.4% multi-year earnings CAGR against a negative revenue CAGR.
m36
Portfolio now weighted to higher-quality end markets
With the low-growth US architectural and silica businesses exited, the remaining mix skews to aerospace coatings (structural backlog, long qualification cycles), automotive refinish (aftermarket, collision-driven, not build-rate driven) and protective/marine. This is a more defensible growth base than the pre-divestiture company even though it shrank reported revenue.
m20
Execution against estimates
Three of the last four prints met or beat (+16%, +3%, and a much smaller-than-expected seasonal loss), one missed by 1%. That pattern implies management has reasonable visibility and is not repeatedly surprised by its own demand — supportive of the near rungs, not of the structural rung.
Growth risks 4
m53
Category is flat-to-shrinking
Industry revenue CAGR -0.6% and category median recent growth -1.4%. Coatings volume ultimately tracks auto builds, industrial production and construction starts; there is no category tailwind to lift PPG, so all growth must be taken from someone else or manufactured through price and cost.
m48
Auto OEM and construction cyclicality with macro headwinds
Macro backdrop flagged as headwind with 10y at 4.75%. Global light-vehicle build and non-residential construction are the two largest volume levers; both are decelerating, and volume declines hit coatings margins harder than price gives back.
m42
Decelerating internal trend and weak cash conversion
Revenue confidence is low (avg annual growth -6.5%, volatility 6.7%, quarterly trend labelled decelerating, not all years positive) and FCF CAGR is -21%. The single newest matched quarter (+6.7%) is a thin base for extrapolation, and operating income grew slower than revenue (+4.8% vs +6.7%), hinting at mix or cost leakage.
m61
The bar embedded in expectations is far above the business
Price-implied growth of +16.4% versus a house projection of +1.0%. Nothing in a mature coatings portfolio — no product cycle, no new category, no take-rate mechanism — plausibly compounds mid-teens. This is a structural-rung problem, not a next-quarter problem.
vs expectations: ~6m inline · 1y inline · 2-3y below
The forward growth verdict — is the business itself likely to grow (next 2 quarters / year 1 / years 2–3), judged against its category and against printed expectations. The full horizon ladder + creme renders on the Growth Outlook card above. Not a call on the price (Valuation owns that) or the tape (Sentiment owns that).
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Lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure), and Growth Outlook (the forward growth verdict). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Price Prediction
Lower -13.3% v0.6.0 View full prediction →

When we made this prediction on Sep 2, 2026, PPG was $111.91. We expect it to be $97.00 by Mar 2027, and we consider it great value under $88.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Sep 2, 2026.

Price when predicted$111.91
Our estimate for Mar 2027$97.00-13.3%
Great value below$88.00
Price history shown (6 Months)

Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.

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My Notes personal — only you see this
v1.1.676 · abbe4534 · 2026-09-22 23:17:29