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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for PPG Industries, Inc. (PPG) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-09-11): Designation Low · Gem Score -24 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 33 · Value -62 · Sentiment -46 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $94.37 vs $109.70 at analysis
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profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
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PPG Industries, Inc.
PPG NYSEPPG Industries, Inc. is a global materials company that develops and manufactures paints, coatings, and specialty products used across a wide range of industries. PPG serves construction, automotive, aerospace, industrial, packaging, transportation, and consumer markets through offerings such as architectural paints, protective and marine coatings, automotive OEM and refinish coatings, industrial coatings, traffic solutions, sealants, adhesives, and specialty materials. The company also provides products for glass, optical, and related surface technologies, supporting applications that protect, decorate, and improve performance in everyday and commercial environments. Headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, PPG operates worldwide and is known for supplying solutions to both manufacturers and end customers through retail channels, distributors, and direct business relationships.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 6.94
Total Equity: $8.10B
Shares: 227,100,000
Total Debt: $8.01B
Cash: $2.16B
EBITDA: $3.20B
Total Debt: $8.01B
Cash: $2.16B
Revenue: $15.88B
Revenue: $15.88B
Revenue: $15.88B
Total Equity: $8.10B
Tax Rate: 22.4%
Equity: $8.10B
Total Debt: $8.01B
Cash: $2.16B
Current Liabilities: $4.90B
Long-Term Debt: $7.30B
Total Debt: $8.01B
Total Equity: $8.10B
Shares: 227,100,000
Shares: 227,100,000
CapEx: -$778.00M
Shares: 227,100,000
Stock Price: $109.70
Net Income: $1.58B
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Sep 2, 2026 3:45am (21d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $16.8B | $17.7B | $18.2B | $15.8B | $15.9B |
| Cost of Revenue | $10.3B | $11.1B | $10.7B | $9.3B | $9.3B |
| Gross Profit | $6.5B | $6.6B | $7.5B | $6.6B | $6.6B |
| Operating Expenses | $4.3B | $4.5B | $4.8B | $3.8B | $3.9B |
| Operating Income | $2.2B | $2.0B | $2.7B | $2.8B | $2.7B |
| Net Income | $1.4B | $1.0B | $1.3B | $1.1B | $1.6B |
| EBITDA | $2.7B | $2.6B | $3.2B | $3.2B | $3.2B |
| EPS | $6.06 | $4.34 | $5.38 | $4.77 | $6.96 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $6.01 | $4.32 | $5.35 | $4.75 | $6.94 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Sep 2, 2026 3:00am (21d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $1.0B | $1.1B | $1.5B | $1.3B | $2.2B |
| Total Current Assets | $6.8B | $7.2B | $7.4B | $6.6B | $8.0B |
| Total Assets | $21.4B | $20.7B | $21.6B | $19.4B | $22.1B |
| Current Liabilities | $4.8B | $4.7B | $5.1B | $5.0B | $4.9B |
| Long-Term Debt | $6.6B | $6.8B | $6.1B | $5.8B | $7.3B |
| Total Liabilities | $14.9B | $14.0B | $13.6B | $12.5B | $14.0B |
| Total Equity | $6.4B | $6.7B | $8.0B | $7.0B | $8.1B |
| Retained Earnings | $20.4B | $20.8B | $21.5B | $22.0B | $22.9B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Sep 2, 2026 4:03am (21d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $1.6B | $963.0M | $2.4B | $1.4B | $1.9B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$371.0M | -$518.0M | -$549.0M | -$721.0M | -$778.0M |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.2B | $445.0M | $1.9B | $699.0M | $1.2B |
| Acquisitions (net) | -$2.1B | -$114.0M | -$109.0M | -$31.0M | -$1.0M |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | -$850.0M | $0 | -$300.0M | -$300.0M | -$1.0B |
| Dividends Paid | -$536.0M | -$570.0M | -$598.0M | -$622.0M | -$628.0M |
| Stock Buybacks | -$210.0M | -$190.0M | -$86.0M | -$752.0M | -$790.0M |
| Net Change in Cash | -$821.0M | $94.0M | $415.0M | -$223.0M | $893.0M |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Sep 2, 2026 3:45am (21d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +5.1% | +3.4% | -13.2% | +0.2% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +0.6% | +14.4% | -12.1% | -0.5% |
| Operating Income Growth | -5.9% | +31.0% | +3.0% | -2.9% |
| Net Income Growth | -28.7% | +23.8% | -12.1% | +41.2% |
| EBITDA Growth | -5.0% | +24.5% | +0.4% | -1.4% |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 31, 2026 9:55am (22d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | $0.74 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-11 | $0.71 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-20 | $0.71 | — | — | — |
| 2025-11-10 | $0.71 | — | — | — |
| 2025-08-11 | $0.71 | — | — | — |
| 2025-05-12 | $0.68 | — | — | — |
| 2025-02-21 | $0.68 | — | — | — |
| 2024-11-12 | $0.68 | — | — | — |
| 2024-08-12 | $0.68 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-09 | $0.65 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-15 | $0.65 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-09 | $0.65 | — | — | — |
| 2023-08-09 | $0.65 | — | — | — |
| 2023-05-09 | $0.62 | — | — | — |
| 2023-02-16 | $0.62 | — | — | — |
| 2022-11-09 | $0.62 | — | — | — |
| 2022-08-09 | $0.62 | — | — | — |
| 2022-05-09 | $0.59 | — | — | — |
| 2022-02-17 | $0.59 | — | — | — |
| 2021-11-09 | $0.59 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Risk : Reward — upside vs downside from this company's own quarters
Computed 2026-09-06 19:25A +1σ run of quarters pays -27%; a −1σ run costs 61%. Ratio -0.5:1 (μ -0.4%, σ 7.7% , 16 pairs).
Older method (repeat-worst-quarter): -0.7 : 1
| Case | Growth | Margin | Fair value | vs price ($109.70) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull — recovery | +2% | 11.3% | $69.84 | -36% |
| Base — stabilizes | +1% | 9.8% | $60.81 | -45% |
| Bear — keeps slipping | +1% | 8.4% | $52.08 | -53% |
| Stress — last quarter repeats | -1% | 9.3% | $54.23 | -51% |
| Upside — a +1σ run of quarters (v2) | +7% | 10.7% | $79.80 | -27% |
| Stress — a −1σ run of quarters (v2) | -8% | 9.3% | $42.86 | -61% |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Growth Outlook
Analyzed 2026-09-02 04:15The question every valuation on this page silently assumes: is this company likely to grow? Judged forward — the business, its category, the world — against what's already printed.
Claude Reading
Looking at the raw quarterly tape first: revenue has actually been flat-to-down (Q1 2026 $3.93B vs Q2 2024 $4.24B, -7%), and the "earnings CAGR of 11.4%" is a base-effect artifact from the Q4 2024 -$280M charge. Strip that out and NI is running $1.55-1.60B annually — essentially flat since 2021's $1.44B. Revenue went from $18.25B (2023) to $15.88B (2025), a 13% top-line contraction largely from divestitures (architectural coatings US/Canada, silicas), so the "growth" story is really a portfolio-reshaping story. Margins have genuinely improved — gross 41.3%, operating 16.8%, ROIC 14.9% — but Q1 2026's 9.7% net margin is below the 2025 run-rate, and Q4 2025 came in at 7.7%. That's decelerating, not compounding.
On valuation: 15.8x P/E, 9.6x EV/EBITDA, 1.93x EV/sales for a business with ~zero organic growth and $8B of debt against $8.1B of equity (D/E ~1.0) is not obviously cheap. FCF of $1.16B on a $24.4B cap is a 4.75% FCF yield — thin for a no-growth cyclical. The synthesis composite of $99 (signal-adjusted $88) implying 20% downside strikes me as directionally right but perhaps overstated; peer specialty chemicals (SHW, RPM, AXTA) trade at premium multiples too, and PPG's post-divestiture ROIC of ~15% deserves some credit. Fair value in the $92-100 range feels more defensible than $88.
Where I part ways with the prior stack: Market Forces calling this a "value trap" with "permanent market share losses" is overreach — the revenue decline is explained by deliberate divestitures at reasonable multiples, not lost share. That's a sloppy read. But the Narrative layer's framing (paying a premium for "proven compounder" quality) is closer to right, and I'd tighten it: the market is pricing PPG as if the 2025 margin structure is the new normal, when Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 already suggest cyclical give-back is starting. Auto builds are softening, Chinese industrial demand is uneven, and US construction is rate-sensitive — all three end-markets are under pressure simultaneously. The classification as "mature earner" is fine; the pre-flight call of "fair value for normalized earnings" understates how much the current $1.58B NI already reflects cyclical peak margins and cost-out benefits that don't repeat.
The contrarian case worth taking seriously: PPG has done the hard work of pruning underperforming assets, has a cleaner portfolio focused on higher-margin industrial and performance coatings, and management has been aggressive on buybacks (share count reduction is doing real work on EPS). At $109, you're paying ~15x for a business that could inflect if auto and construction cycles turn, with a 2.6% dividend and 40% payout leaving room to grow it. Insider data is uninformative — grants only, no open-market buys or sells to read into. The bigger data problem is the "2026-03-31" quarterly datestamp, which suggests this file is either misdated or the freshest quarter is stale-labeled; either way, treating this as a real-time read requires a grain of salt. I'll agree directionally with the synthesis (overvalued) but dissent on the magnitude — $88 is too punitive, $95-100 is where I'd anchor fair value, making current $109 a ~10-15% overpay rather than 20%. Not a short, not a buy; a trim or a wait.
GPT Reading
What jumps out is that PPG is no longer a revenue growth story at all; it is a margin and capital-allocation story. Annual revenue was $18.25B in 2023 and is now $15.88B in 2025, down 13% in two years, yet operating income held roughly flat at $2.67B versus $2.68B and net income actually improved to $1.58B from $1.27B. The quarterlies tell the same story: sales remain stuck in a narrow $3.7B-$4.2B band, with 2026 Q1 at $3.93B versus $3.68B a year earlier, but profitability snapped back hard after the ugly 2024 Q4 loss. If I strip out that apparent one-time 2024 Q4 hit, PPG is earning around $1.5B-$1.8B in a flat-volume environment by defending gross margin near 41% and operating margin near 17%. That is a real strength, not financial engineering. A specialty coatings franchise that can absorb a revenue reset from $18B to $16B without impairing EBIT deserves more respect than a simple “cyclical decliner” label.
That said, the stock price already reflects a lot of that resilience. At $109.7, the equity is worth $24.4B; with $8.0B of debt and $2.2B of cash, enterprise value is roughly $30.2B. Against 2025 EBIT of $2.67B and EV/EBITDA of 9.6x, this is not expensive in absolute terms for a high-quality coatings asset, but it is also not cheap when revenue is flat to down and free cash flow is only $1.16B. That is a sub-5% FCF yield on market cap and about 3.8% on enterprise value. For a mature chemicals business facing macro-sensitive end markets, that leaves little room for disappointment. P/E of 15.8x looks optically reasonable, but it is being applied to what appears close to peak margin on a shrunken revenue base. If volumes weaken again or raw material tailwinds reverse, that earnings multiple can prove less benign than it looks.
My read is therefore more conservative than the “steady compounder” narrative but less bearish than the harsher overvaluation calls. The real contradiction in the data is this: the company’s economics are better than the revenue trend suggests, but the cash generation is worse than the earnings line suggests. Operating cash flow of $1.94B versus net income of $1.58B is fine, yet capex of $778M leaves only $1.16B of FCF, and the multi-year FCF trajectory is weaker than the earnings trajectory. Leverage is manageable at roughly 1.0x debt-to-equity and current ratio 1.62, but net debt of about $5.85B is material enough that this is not a balance sheet that can casually absorb a prolonged downturn while still buying growth. I come away viewing PPG as a solid business priced around fair value to a touch rich: the market is paying for durability, and durability is real, but there is no evidence in these numbers of a meaningful new growth leg.
The best argument against my caution is that I may be underestimating how good this business is structurally. ROIC of 14.9% and ROE of 19.5% are strong for an industrial chemicals name. Quarterly net margins rebounded from 10.1% in 2025 Q1 to 10.7%, 11.1%, 7.7%, then 9.7% in the latest quarter, suggesting normalized earnings power may indeed be rising despite sluggish demand. If 2024 Q4 was a true one-off and 2026 runs at something like $1.6B-$1.7B of net income with revenue stabilizing near $16B, then paying 15x-16x earnings is not aggressive; it is arguably what quality cyclicals deserve, especially with a 2.6% dividend and sub-10x EV/EBITDA. On that view, the stock is not pricing in growth so much as pricing in confidence that coatings remains a disciplined oligopoly with pricing power.
What would change my mind is simple. I would turn constructive if PPG can post two or three consecutive quarters of genuine top-line growth, not just easy comps—something like revenue sustainably above $4.1B per quarter while holding operating margin above 16.5% and converting that into annual FCF comfortably above $1.4B. That would show the company is not merely harvesting margins on a smaller base. I would turn more negative if revenue rolls back below $15.5B annualized, if gross margin slips below 40%, or if another quarter reveals earnings volatility of the kind seen in 2024 Q4 without a clearly non-recurring explanation. For now, this looks like a very good company at a price that mostly knows it.
Grok Reading
PPG’s numbers describe a company that deliberately shrank its top line and improved the quality of what remained. Revenue fell from $18.25B in 2023 to $15.85–15.88B in 2024–25, a roughly 13% step-down that drives the ugly −6.7% revenue CAGR and the “decelerating” quarterly label; the flat $15.88B print in 2025 and the latest quarter at $3.93B (up from $3.68B a year earlier) show the base has stabilized, not collapsed organically. On that smaller sales pool, operating income held at $2.67B versus $2.76B the prior year, net income jumped to $1.58B from $1.12B (the 2024 figure was distorted by a −$280M Q4 loss), and net margin sits at 9.9% with gross margin a solid 41.3%. ROE of 19.5% and ROIC of 14.9% on a near 1.0× debt-to-equity balance sheet ($8.01B debt, $2.16B cash, $8.10B equity) are not the profile of a deteriorating industrial. Free cash flow of $1.16B against a $24.4B market cap implies a ~4.8% FCF yield; add the 2.6% dividend at a 40% payout and the cash return package is real. At 15.8× trailing earnings, 9.6× EV/EBITDA and 1.57× sales, the market is paying a mid-cycle specialty-chemicals multiple for mid-teens returns on capital—not a growth premium and not a distressed discount.
The contradiction with the quantitative stack is sharp. The composite fair value of $99 and the signal-adjusted $88 bake the −21% FCF CAGR and “Market Headwinds / value trap” framing into a −20% overvaluation call. That framing overweights the FCF decline and underweights the earnings recovery and the portfolio cleanup that mechanically reduced revenue while lifting margins. Recent quarterly NI of $382M, $300M, $453M and $450M shows run-rate earnings power near the $1.5B+ already delivered in 2025; a 15–16× multiple on that run-rate is consistent with a mature earner, not with a stock priced for perfection. Insider activity is pure award noise and adds nothing. The narrative premium of ~25% over the engine’s $88 DCF exists, but it is moderate intensity and low cult coefficient—exactly what you would expect for a coatings compounder with pricing power, not froth.
The strongest case against this read is the cash-flow and cyclical tape. FCF fell hard enough to post a −21% CAGR even as reported earnings rose, so earnings quality is not pristine; working-capital or capex absorption ($778M) could keep converting NI into cash at a disappointing rate. End markets—auto OEM, construction, industrial—are late-cycle and the secondary signals flag macro headwinds and below-sector benchmarks. If organic volume stalls and raw-material tailwinds reverse, the 16.8% operating margin compresses and the 15.8× P/E becomes expensive in a hurry. A skeptic also notes that $1.16B of FCF on $24.4B of equity value leaves limited room for multiple expansion once the “cleaner portfolio” story is fully priced. I weigh those points as real risks that cap upside and justify only moderate conviction, not as proof the stock is 20% rich: the earnings power and returns on capital already embedded in the 2025 P&L support a mid-teens multiple closer to the current $110 than to $88.
What would flip the view is concrete. Two consecutive quarters of organic revenue growth above 3% with FCF conversion back above 80% of NI would push me to undervalued and a higher bull score; a print of trailing-twelve-month FCF below $900M or operating margin back under 14% while auto/construction indicators keep rolling over would confirm the value-trap thesis and mark the stock overvalued toward the low-$90s.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
PPG is a classic mature earner: revenue has actually contracted from $18.25B in 2023 to $15.88B in 2025 (partly divestitures), but gross margin expanded from 38.8% in 2021 to 41.3% in 2025 and operating margin nearly doubled from 12.9% to 16.8%. Net income of $1.58B in 2025 is the best of the five-year window, and OCF/NI of 1.29x with accruals at -1.8% of assets, a Beneish M of -2.45, and an Altman Z of 3.78 all corroborate clean, cash-backed earnings rather than accrual-driven optics. FCF at $1.16B is solid but lumpy (ranged from $445M to $1.86B across the period), so cash conversion is real but not perfectly smooth. Capital allocation is a strength: diluted shares fell from 239.4M to 227.1M (-1.3% CAGR), SBC is trivial at 0.3% of revenue, and buyback-to-SBC of 848% shows real per-share value concentration rather than optical buybacks offsetting comp. The concern is the balance sheet: net debt of roughly $5.79B against $2.22B liquid cash means leverage, not cushion, funds the buyback and dividend. With $1.16B FCF that is serviceable but constrains flexibility if margins slip or an end-market cycle turns. Overall a well-run, mid-cycle specialty chemicals business - not a fortress, but demonstrably disciplined.
Verify before trusting this (6)
- How much of the 2023-to-2025 revenue decline is divestiture (architectural coatings US/Canada sale) vs organic contraction
- Debt maturity ladder and average coupon vs current rates - refinancing risk on the $5.79B net debt
- Segment margin trend: are Performance Coatings and Industrial Coatings both expanding, or is mix flattering a weaker segment
- Pension/OPEB obligations and any off-balance-sheet leverage
- Customer/end-market concentration (auto OEM, aerospace, architectural) and cycle exposure
- Restructuring charges embedded in operating margin - is 16.8% OpM clean or GAAP-flattered
Composite fair value lands at $99.13 and the signal-adjusted FV at $88.01, both below the $109.70 price, implying -10% to -20% downside. The two conservative methods (DCF $68.05, EPV floor $61.43) frame a floor well beneath the price, while the anchored-PE of $198.97 is an obvious outlier that assumes multiple expansion I do not credit for a business with flat revenue - I discount it heavily. Splitting the difference around the composite, deserved value sits in the low-to-mid $90s. Earnings quality is high so no haircut is warranted, but the quality lens flagged leverage and a flat top line, which caps the multiple I am willing to pay. The market is paying a modest premium for margin expansion and buyback-driven EPS, which is a real story but already in the price. There is no margin of safety here; you are underwriting continued pricing discipline and cost-out through a softening auto/construction cycle. Fair to slightly rich, not a bargain.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Forward volume guidance in auto refinish and industrial coatings
- Price/mix vs raw material cost trajectory in next 2 quarters
- Buyback pace and net leverage trend
- Any restructuring one-offs distorting margin
PPG sits in a neutral market regime (VIX 16, S&P -2% off highs) with a beta near 1, so the tape itself is not the story - the story is that the steady-compounder narrative is losing energy. Intensity is only moderate, durability is moderate, cult is low: nobody is defending this name in a drawdown. The stock has compounded at -6.7% and news flow leans mixed-to-soft (weak auto refinish, weak European demand, aerospace the only bright spot), which is exactly the kind of tape that lets a premium multiple bleed lower without any dramatic catalyst. Analyst tone as reflected in headlines is a tepid 'hold for now' and 'reasonable on earnings while returns stay weak' - faint praise that removes the marginal buyer. The marine coatings launches are real but too small to shift narrative gravity. Macro is a mild secondary headwind: 10y at 4.75% and market PE 25.8 pressure cyclicals-adjacent names, and coatings is levered to construction and auto - both of which the bear case is already flagging. Net: no strong tailwind is present, the narrative is drifting sideways-to-down, and the recent momentum tag is strong_negative. Pressure leans modestly negative.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Whether auto refinish and European volume commentary worsens on the next print - the trigger that would flip narrative from 'drifting' to 'breaking'
- Any sector rotation into defensive industrials/coatings that could quietly re-rate this cohort
- Analyst target revisions - a wave of cuts would confirm the fade; a stabilization would neutralize the headwind
- Aerospace coatings momentum as a possible counter-narrative anchor
The world PPG sells into is not expanding: mature global construction, softening auto build rates in Europe and China, and industrial production hovering. What has changed in PPG's favour is input-cost normalization — the industry captured +2.2pp of gross margin over three years — and PPG's own portfolio surgery, which removed the slowest-growing, lowest-margin businesses. So the forward shape is a flat-to-slightly-up top line with earnings growing a bit faster on price/mix and cost-out. Aerospace and refinish are genuine bright spots with long-dated demand; architectural EMEA/Latin America and auto OEM are the drags. Rates at 4.75% keep construction and big-ticket auto demand capped through the intermediate term. This is a GDP-minus category where a good operator can manufacture GDP-plus earnings — but not a growth story, and the reverse-DCF's 16.4% has no mechanism behind it in this world.
When we made this prediction on Sep 2, 2026, PPG was $111.91. We expect it to be $97.00 by Mar 2027, and we consider it great value under $88.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Sep 2, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.