Business Description
Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. engages in the transportation, e-infrastructure, and building solutions primarily in the Southern United States, the Northeastern and Mid-Atlantic United States, the Rocky Mountain states, California, and Hawaii. It undertakes infrastructure and rehabilitation projects for highways, roads, bridges, airports, ports, light rail, water, wastewater, and storm drainage systems for the departments of transportation in various states, regional transit authorities, airport authorities, port authorities, water authorities and railroads. The company also provides specialty site infrastructure improvement contracting services for blue-chip end users in the e-commerce, data center, distribution center and warehousing, and energy sectors. In addition, it undertakes residential and commercial concrete foundations for single-family and multi-family homes, parking structures, elevated slabs, and other concrete work for national home builders, regional and custom home builders, and developers and general contractors in commercial markets. The company was formerly known as Sterling Construction Company, Inc. and changed its name to Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. in June 2022. Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. was founded in 1955 and is headquartered in The Woodlands, Texas.
Business History
Generated: Jun 7, 2026 5:11pmPrice Overview
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:09pm (19d ago)Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 9.50
Total Equity: $1.11B
Shares: 30,947,000
Total Debt: $349.91M
Cash: $390.72M
EBITDA: $505.38M
Total Debt: $349.91M
Cash: $390.72M
Revenue: $2.49B
Revenue: $2.49B
Revenue: $2.49B
Total Equity: $1.11B
Tax Rate: 24.2%
Equity: $1.11B
Total Debt: $349.91M
Cash: $390.72M
Current Liabilities: $1.02B
Long-Term Debt: $316.09M
Total Debt: $349.91M
Total Equity: $1.11B
Shares: 30,947,000
Shares: 30,947,000
CapEx: -$77.31M
Shares: 30,947,000
Stock Price: $882.43
Net Income: $290.15M
Industry Benchmarks
Deep Analysis
Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:15pm (19d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.4B | $1.8B | $2.0B | $2.1B | $2.5B |
| Cost of Revenue | $1.2B | $1.5B | $1.6B | $1.7B | $1.9B |
| Gross Profit | $203.5M | $274.6M | $337.6M | $426.1M | $572.3M |
| Operating Expenses | $96.5M | $113.9M | $131.6M | $156.3M | $158.8M |
| Operating Income | $107.0M | $160.7M | $206.0M | $269.8M | $413.5M |
| Net Income | $62.6M | $106.5M | $138.7M | $257.5M | $290.2M |
| EBITDA | $142.3M | $212.8M | $277.3M | $451.9M | $505.4M |
| EPS | $2.19 | $3.53 | $4.51 | $8.35 | $9.50 |
| EPS (Diluted) | — | — | — | — | — |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:11pm (19d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $64.8M | $185.3M | $471.6M | $664.2M | $390.7M |
| Total Current Assets | $434.7M | $597.3M | $848.0M | $1.0B | $1.0B |
| Total Assets | $1.3B | $1.5B | $1.8B | $2.0B | $2.6B |
| Current Liabilities | $351.8M | $446.6M | $678.2M | $742.0M | $1.0B |
| Long-Term Debt | $428.3M | $398.7M | $314.5M | $289.5M | $316.1M |
| Total Liabilities | $901.4M | $991.1M | $1.2B | $1.2B | $1.5B |
| Total Equity | $358.8M | $474.6M | $618.9M | $808.1M | $1.1B |
| Retained Earnings | $79.9M | $186.4M | $325.0M | $582.5M | $872.6M |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:15pm (19d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $158.9M | $219.1M | $478.6M | $497.1M | $440.0M |
| Capital Expenditure | -$46.7M | -$60.9M | -$64.4M | -$81.0M | -$77.3M |
| Free Cash Flow | $112.3M | $158.2M | $414.2M | $416.2M | $362.7M |
| Acquisitions (net) | -$180.9M | -$33.8M | -$37.2M | -$11.2M | -$482.3M |
| Debt Repayment | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividends Paid | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stock Buybacks | $0 | $0 | $0 | -$70.6M | -$74.2M |
| Net Change in Cash | $16.1M | $96.6M | $286.3M | $192.6M | -$273.5M |
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:09pm (19d ago)| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue |
$4.5B $3.7B – $5.1B
|
$5.6B $4.9B – $6.1B
|
$6.6B $5.7B – $7.1B
|
$7.7B $6.7B – $8.4B
|
| EBITDA |
$1.5B $1.2B – $1.7B
|
$1.9B $1.6B – $2.0B
|
$2.2B $1.9B – $2.4B
|
$2.6B $2.2B – $2.8B
|
| Net Income |
$686.2M $523.3M – $836.7M
|
$871.2M $748.7M – $993.7M
|
$1.1B $898.1M – $1.2B
|
$1.3B $1.1B – $1.4B
|
| EPS | — | — | — | — |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:15pm (19d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +25.1% | +11.5% | +7.3% | +17.7% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +34.9% | +23.0% | +26.2% | +34.3% |
| Operating Income Growth | +50.2% | +28.2% | +31.0% | +53.3% |
| Net Income Growth | +69.9% | +30.2% | +85.7% | +12.7% |
| EBITDA Growth | +49.5% | +30.3% | +63.0% | +11.8% |
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:15pm (19d ago)All SEC Form 4 codes
- P Purchase
- Open-market or private purchase of shares.
- S Sale
- Open-market or private sale of shares.
- A Award / grant
- Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
- D Return to issuer
- Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
- F In-kind (tax)
- Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
- I Discretionary
- Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
- M Option exercise
- Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
- C Conversion
- Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
- E Short expiration
- Expiration of a short derivative position.
- H Long expiration
- Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
- O OTM exercise
- Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
- X ITM exercise
- Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
- G Gift
- Bona fide gift of securities.
- L Small acquisition
- Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
- W Inheritance
- Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
- Z Voting trust
- Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
- J Other
- Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
- K Equity swap
- Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
- U Tender / buyout
- Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.
Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-18 | Dill Julie | G-Gift | 325.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-05-20 | CUTILLO JOSEPH A | A-Award | 40,000.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-05-07 | CREGG ROGER A | A-Award | 181.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-05-07 | Bosway William T | A-Award | 181.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-05-07 | Dill Julie | A-Award | 181.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-05-07 | O'Brien Dana C. | A-Award | 181.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-05-07 | ROSE B ANDREW | A-Award | 181.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-05-07 | Schulz David S. | A-Award | 181.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-05-07 | Wilson Dwayne Andree | A-Award | 181.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-04-23 | CUTILLO JOSEPH A | S-Sale | 50,000.00 | $497.57 | $24.9M |
| 2026-03-25 | CUTILLO JOSEPH A | S-Sale | 50,000.00 | $453.48 | $22.7M |
| 2026-03-12 | Wilson Dwayne Andree | S-Sale | 1,260.00 | $405.95 | $511,496 |
| 2026-03-09 | Dill Julie | S-Sale | 4,500.00 | $384.28 | $1.7M |
| 2026-03-05 | Wilson Dwayne Andree | S-Sale | 1,200.00 | $412.36 | $494,832 |
| 2026-02-25 | CUTILLO JOSEPH A | A-Award | 30,488.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-02-25 | CUTILLO JOSEPH A | F-InKind | 11,668.00 | $455.25 | $5.3M |
| 2026-02-25 | Wolf Mark D. | A-Award | 2,996.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-02-25 | Wolf Mark D. | F-InKind | 1,193.00 | $455.25 | $543,113 |
| 2026-02-06 | O'Brien Dana C. | S-Sale | 1,000.00 | $390.00 | $390,000 |
| 2026-02-06 | O'Brien Dana C. | S-Sale | 1,000.00 | $400.00 | $400,000 |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:09pm (19d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1998-12-23 | $0.00 |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Delvantic AI Findings
Looking at the raw quarterly trajectory first: revenue went from $430.9M in Q1'25 to $825.7M in Q1'26 — that's 92% YoY growth, not the 17.7% the momentum tile shows (which appears to be comparing wrong periods). Q4'24 had a $113.2M NI print at 22.7% margin that looks like a one-off tax/gain item; strip it and the underlying earnings trajectory is cleaner and more impressive than the 12.7% recent-earnings-YoY suggests. Net margins have stabilized in the 11-13% range across four consecutive quarters — this is no longer "expanding," it's plateaued at a new structural level. Annual revenue went $1.41B → $2.49B (2021→2025), a 15.3% CAGR, while NI went $62.6M → $290.2M, a 46% CAGR. FCF of $362.7M on $27B cap = 75x P/FCF. That's the number that matters, and it's punishing.
The synthesis verdict ("Disconnected from Fundamentals") and the Pre-Flight take ("high-growth-infrastructure-specialist") are in direct tension, and I side mostly with synthesis but with a caveat. Pre-Flight is right that something structural happened — the margin step-up from 14% to 23% GM is real and likely reflects mix shift toward e-Infrastructure (data centers) where Sterling has pricing power the legacy heavy-civil business never had. But synthesis is right that 78x P/E and 45x EV/EBITDA require this mix shift to continue accelerating, not just hold. The Market Narrative tile calling this "anchored / steady-compounder / minimal narrative intensity" is wrong — a 4.6x price move with 75x P/FCF is not anchored; it's a momentum/AI-adjacency trade dressed in industrial clothing. Market Forces correctly flags the insider selling (100,000 shares across two March/April sales) and the FCF divergence (operating earnings up, FCF CAGR -6.4%) as the tells.
The contrarian-to-the-bears case: Sterling's e-Infrastructure segment is genuinely levered to hyperscaler data center capex, which is running at $300B+ annually with multi-year visibility. If e-Infra is now ~50% of mix growing 30%+, then 2027 revenue could plausibly be $3.5-4B with 13%+ net margins = $475-520M NI, putting forward P/E at ~52x — still expensive but not absurd for that growth rate. The Q1'26 print of $825.7M annualizes to $3.3B already. The bull case isn't ridiculous; it's just fully priced with no margin of safety. The contrarian-to-the-bulls case: data center capex is the most consensus trade in markets right now, hyperscaler ROI questions are mounting, and Sterling trades like a pure-play when it isn't — the legacy transportation/building solutions segments will drag if non-residential construction rolls over in a recession. Current ratio of 1.01 is tight for a contractor that needs working capital to fund backlog growth.
Data quality concerns: the momentum tile's growth rates look broken (17.7% recent revenue YoY doesn't reconcile with $430.9M → $825.7M), Q4'24's 22.7% net margin distorts any TTM comparison, and balance sheet debt/equity fields are missing entirely — which matters because acquisition-driven growth (Plateau, Drake Concrete) means goodwill and contingent consideration could be material. The insider activity is unambiguous: two 50,000-share sales in March and April 2026 at presumably $800+ prices = ~$80M of insider cash-out, while the only buying is awards (not open-market purchases). That's the single clearest signal in the file. I agree with the synthesis verdict but would frame it less apocalyptically: Sterling is a real business that has earned a re-rating from 15x to maybe 35-40x, but the market has taken it to 78x, which requires perfection. Fair value on 2026E ~$3.4B revenue, 12% net margin = $408M NI × 40x = $16.3B, or ~$530/share. At $882, you're paying for 2028 in 2026 with insiders ringing the register.
GPT Critique
Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. presents a complex investment case driven by impressive revenue growth and margin stabilization, but tempered by a sky-high valuation that raises eyebrows. The company has demonstrated significant growth, with quarterly revenues jumping from $430.9M in Q1 2025 to $825.7M in Q1 2026, marking a near doubling that outpaces the sector's typical growth. Annual figures show a consistent upward trajectory, with revenues climbing from $1.41B in 2021 to $2.49B in 2025, reflecting a commendable CAGR of 15.3%. Net income has similarly surged, growing from $62.6M to $290.2M over the same period, pointing to improved operational efficiency and strategic market positioning. However, the stock's current valuation of $882.43, with a P/E ratio of 78.03, suggests the market is pricing in an aggressive growth trajectory that might be overly optimistic given historical sector performance.
I find myself agreeing with Opus's assertion that the valuation appears stretched. Opus accurately points out the discrepancy between the company's fundamentals and its market valuation, labeling the stock as overvalued and suggesting a fair value range of $500-560, based on 40x forward earnings. The current P/FCF of 75x, as Opus highlights, is particularly concerning, signaling that the market might be factoring in a growth rate that is historically unprecedented in the engineering and construction sector. The insider selling activity further corroborates this skepticism, indicating that internal stakeholders may also feel the stock is overpriced at current levels.
However, I diverge from Opus on the narrative surrounding Sterling's structural transformation. While Opus rightly acknowledges the margin improvements and potential mix shift towards e-Infrastructure, I believe the market's enthusiasm for Sterling's role in this sector might be somewhat justified, albeit not to the extent currently reflected in the share price. The company's potential exposure to the AI-driven data center boom and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) could indeed provide a sustainable tailwind, though the current valuation seems to price in these advantages to their fullest extent, leaving little room for error.
A careful skeptic would argue that the data center boom may not provide the sustained growth the market expects, especially with intensifying competition and potential macroeconomic headwinds. Furthermore, the significant insider selling and high P/E ratio serve as red flags that the market might be overly optimistic about Sterling's future prospects. They would also point out the necessity for Sterling to continuously prove its ability to maintain and expand its margin levels in such a competitive field.