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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC (CCEP) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-27): Designation Watch · Gem Score -9 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 61 · Value -56 · Sentiment 8 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $95.07 vs $107.50 at analysis
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Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC
CCEP NASDAQCoca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC is a multinational beverage bottling and distribution company focused on non-alcoholic ready-to-drink drinks. Coca-Cola Europacific Partners produces, sells, and distributes a broad portfolio of soft drinks, water, juices, sports drinks, and other chilled beverages under brands associated with The Coca-Cola Company. The business serves consumers and retail customers across multiple markets, with operations spanning Western Europe and selected international regions through an extensive production and logistics network. Its core role in the financial market is as a large-scale consumer staples company tied to everyday beverage demand, combining manufacturing, packaging, route-to-market execution, and brand-led distribution. Coca-Cola Europacific Partners is headquartered in Uxbridge, United Kingdom.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
This company does not file structured financial statements with the U.S. SEC, so quarterly figures aren't available from our filings-based data engine. Annual figures shown here come from the sources that do cover it.
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 4.93
Total Equity: $9.61B
Shares: 456,000,000
Total Debt: $12.38B
Cash: $1.06B
EBITDA: $4.30B
Total Debt: $12.38B
Cash: $1.06B
Revenue: $24.20B
Revenue: $24.20B
Revenue: $24.20B
Total Equity: $9.61B
Tax Rate: 23.0%
Equity: $9.61B
Total Debt: $12.38B
Cash: $1.06B
Current Liabilities: $8.78B
Long-Term Debt: $11.84B
Total Debt: $12.38B
Total Equity: $9.61B
Shares: 456,000,000
Shares: 456,000,000
CapEx: -$868.36M
Shares: 456,000,000
Stock Price: $107.50
Net Income: $2.25B
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 19, 2026 12:22am (49d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $15.9B | $20.1B | $21.2B | $23.7B | $24.2B |
| Cost of Revenue | $10.0B | $12.8B | $13.4B | $15.3B | $15.6B |
| Gross Profit | $5.9B | $7.2B | $7.8B | $8.3B | $8.6B |
| Operating Expenses | $4.1B | $4.8B | $5.1B | $5.9B | $5.4B |
| Operating Income | $1.8B | $2.4B | $2.7B | $2.5B | $3.2B |
| Net Income | $1.1B | $1.7B | $1.9B | $1.6B | $2.2B |
| EBITDA | $2.7B | $3.4B | $3.6B | $3.5B | $4.3B |
| EPS | $2.49 | $3.82 | $4.21 | $3.57 | $4.93 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $2.49 | $3.81 | $4.20 | $3.57 | $4.93 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 19, 2026 12:22am (49d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $1.6B | $1.6B | $1.6B | $1.8B | $1.1B |
| Total Current Assets | $6.7B | $7.6B | $7.6B | $7.7B | $7.0B |
| Total Assets | $33.7B | $33.9B | $33.9B | $36.0B | $34.6B |
| Current Liabilities | $7.1B | $8.5B | $8.4B | $9.4B | $8.8B |
| Long-Term Debt | $13.7B | $12.2B | $11.7B | $11.5B | $11.8B |
| Total Liabilities | $25.3B | $25.3B | $24.6B | $25.6B | $25.0B |
| Total Equity | $8.3B | $8.6B | $9.2B | $10.4B | $9.6B |
| Retained Earnings | $7.7B | $8.6B | $9.5B | $10.2B | $10.2B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 19, 2026 12:22am (49d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $2.5B | $3.4B | $3.2B | $3.5B | $3.4B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$404.1M | -$578.9M | -$778.0M | -$915.8M | -$868.4M |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.0B | $2.8B | $2.5B | $2.6B | $2.6B |
| Acquisitions (net) | -$6.3B | $0 | $0 | -$1.8B | $0 |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | $4.5B | -$1.1B | -$538.4M | -$230.4M | -$575.4M |
| Dividends Paid | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stock Buybacks | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net Change in Cash | -$230.4M | $12.7M | $54.4M | $151.7M | -$658.8M |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 19, 2026 12:22am (49d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +25.8% | +5.7% | +11.7% | +2.3% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +22.4% | +8.0% | +7.3% | +3.2% |
| Operating Income Growth | +37.6% | +12.1% | -8.8% | +31.0% |
| Net Income Growth | +53.6% | +10.7% | -15.0% | +37.0% |
| EBITDA Growth | +26.3% | +7.9% | -2.1% | +21.2% |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 19, 2026 11:33am (49d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | $0.96 | — | — | — |
| 2025-11-14 | $1.43 | — | — | — |
| 2025-05-16 | $0.90 | — | — | — |
| 2024-11-15 | $1.34 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-09 | $0.79 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-16 | $1.23 | — | — | — |
| 2023-05-11 | $0.74 | — | — | — |
| 2022-11-17 | $1.11 | — | — | — |
| 2022-05-12 | $0.59 | — | — | — |
| 2021-11-18 | $1.62 | — | — | — |
| 2020-11-16 | $1.00 | — | — | — |
| 2019-11-18 | $0.69 | — | — | — |
| 2019-05-23 | $0.69 | — | — | — |
| 2018-11-08 | $0.32 | — | — | — |
| 2018-08-21 | $0.30 | — | — | — |
| 2018-05-11 | $0.31 | — | — | — |
| 2018-02-26 | $0.32 | — | — | — |
| 2017-11-17 | $0.24 | — | — | — |
| 2017-08-24 | $0.25 | — | — | — |
| 2017-05-18 | $0.23 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Risk : Reward — upside vs downside from this company's own quarters
Not computed yetNarrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Growth Outlook
Analyzed 2026-08-19 11:49The question every valuation on this page silently assumes: is this company likely to grow? Judged forward — the business, its category, the world — against what's already printed.
Claude Reading
Starting with the raw numbers: CCEP grew revenue from $15.93B in 2021 to $24.20B in 2025 — that's a 52% cumulative lift, but the shape matters. The 2021→2022 jump (+26%) was the API acquisition; ex-that, organic growth is more like 2-4% annually. Recent YoY is 2.3% revenue but 37% net income — the earnings expansion is doing the heavy lifting, and operating margin went from 8.8% (2022) to 13.4% (2025). That's real, but 13.4% is toward the high end of what a European bottler franchise-model typically sustains (KO bottlers historically 10-13%). The 37% NI jump last year has a low base effect (2024 op margin dipped to 10.4%, likely input cost / integration noise) — normalized earnings growth is closer to the 7.9% five-year CAGR. FCF CAGR of 1.6% vs earnings CAGR of 7.9% is the tell: working capital and capex are eating the accounting earnings gains.
Balance sheet: $12.38B debt vs $1.06B cash and $3.42B OCF — leverage is ~3.3x net debt/EBITDA-ish (EBITDA implied ~$4.2B from EV/EBITDA of 14x on ~$59B EV). Current ratio 0.80 is standard for bottlers (payables-financed working capital) but leaves no cushion. ROIC of 11.9% against a franchise business with WACC probably 7-8% is decent value creation, not spectacular. Debt/equity 1.29x is manageable but rules out aggressive buybacks or transformative M&A without equity issuance.
Where I land vs the models: the synthesis says fair_value with DCF anchor $93.71 and current $107.50 — a 14.5% premium. I think that's roughly right but the composition of the disagreement is what matters. The Market Forces "melting ice cube" call is overstated — CCEP isn't melting, it's slow-growing with genuine pricing power, and calling a business generating $2.55B FCF strategically irrelevant is dramatic. But the Thesis Evaluation's -17 score capturing "margin expansion cannibalizing the future" is the right skeptical frame: you can't get operating margin from 8.8% to 13.4% without under-investing somewhere, and the 1.6% FCF CAGR vs 7.9% earnings CAGR quietly confirms it. The pre-flight framing at 21.8x PE vs 15-18x historical bottler range is the cleanest bear argument nobody's pressing hard enough — that's a 25-45% multiple premium on a business whose organic growth has structurally slowed to low-single-digits and whose FCF isn't compounding.
The contrarian steelman I'd take seriously: CCEP is the Coca-Cola system's Europe+APAC consolidator with effectively permanent territorial rights, and mature-market bottlers globally have re-rated over the past decade (KO itself trades ~24x). The premium may reflect (a) genuine scarcity value of large-cap European staples with USD-hedge characteristics, (b) the API integration synergies still flowing through, and (c) a dividend yield of 2.2% growing mid-single-digits, which in a 4% Bund world is a real total-return proposition. If I'm wrong, it's because I'm underweighting the terminal value stability of a Coca-Cola franchise partner — these things trade at premiums because they simply don't go away.
Where the data is thin: no quarterly detail was provided (the "quarterly trend: insufficient_data" tag confirms this), so I can't verify whether the margin expansion is decelerating or still running. No insider activity was provided. The 2024 dip to $1.64B NI vs 2023's $1.93B is unexplained in the file — that inflection matters because it's the base for the 37% recent earnings YoY that flatters the momentum picture. I'd want to see whether 2024 was truly a one-off (FX, restructuring) or the start of a plateau being papered over by 2025 pricing actions that won't repeat.
GPT Reading
What stands out is that the market is paying a premium multiple for a business whose growth is increasingly coming from execution and margin recovery rather than true top-line dynamism. Revenue has risen from $15.9B in 2021 to $24.2B in 2025, but that four-year arc flatters the underlying pace because it includes the step-up from portfolio/geographic changes; the latest year was only 2.3% growth, from $23.66B to $24.20B. The more important 2025 story is profit repair: operating income jumped to $3.23B from $2.47B, taking operating margin to 13.4% from 10.4%, while net income rose 37% to $2.25B. That is real improvement, but it also means the current 21.8x P/E is sitting on a year boosted by margin expansion. For a bottler/distributor with $12.38B of debt, $1.06B of cash, a sub-1 current ratio, and capex still running at $868M, I do not think you should capitalize one very strong margin year as if it is a durable new glidepath.
The quality of the business is not in doubt. Gross margin has steadily improved to 35.6% from roughly 37? No — more importantly, gross profit rose to $8.61B on $24.20B of sales and operating cash flow reached $3.42B, with $2.55B of free cash flow. ROIC at 11.9% and ROE at 23.4% are solid for a mature consumer staple. This is a very competent operator with brand-backed pricing power and a distribution moat, not a broken asset. But valuation matters: $47.5B market cap against $2.55B of FCF is about an 18.6x FCF multiple, and once net debt of roughly $11.3B is acknowledged, the enterprise is being valued at about 14.0x EBITDA and 2.5x revenue. Those are not distressed or even middling bottler numbers; they are quality-compounder numbers. To deserve that, I would want either more visible volume/category growth or more balance-sheet flexibility than the current data show.
The contradiction I see in the more bearish “melting ice cube” framing is that the income statement does not support secular decay yet. Revenue is higher every year from 2021 through 2025, gross profit is higher every year, and free cash generation is ample enough to support dividends and debt service. Net margin at 9.3% is healthy for this type of business, and the 2025 rebound suggests the company still has self-help levers. So I do not buy the extreme bear case that CCEP is structurally impaired. My issue is simpler: this is a good business priced like a very good one. A stock on 21.8x earnings and over 14x EV/EBITDA needs cleaner organic growth than 2%-ish revenue growth if margin normalization is largely behind it. Without that, upside looks capped because the easy earnings gains from price/cost spread improvement get annualized by the market faster than they can be repeated.
The best counterargument is obvious and respectable. If 2025 marks not a one-off recovery but the start of a higher-margin base, then the current multiple is less demanding than it looks. Operating income moved up by $760M year over year on only $540M of added revenue, which implies substantial operating leverage still available. If management can hold operating margin around 13%-14%, continue to convert more than $3.4B of operating cash flow into $2.5B+ of free cash flow, and keep revenue compounding even in the low single digits, then a defensive consumer name with Coca-Cola system advantages can justify a premium to historical bottler ranges. I weigh that argument lower because the burden of proof rises sharply once the stock already trades above the mid-$90s fair-value area implied by the underlying cash generation. You are no longer being paid for execution risk.
What would change my mind is straightforward. On the bullish side, I would want to see another year where revenue grows at least 4%-5% on top of the 2025 base while operating margin holds above 13% and free cash flow stays comfortably above $2.5B; that would support earnings power beyond a recovery year and make $107 look more reasonable. I would also become more constructive if net debt/earnings capacity improved through material deleveraging rather than just stable leverage. On the bearish side, if 2026 revenue slips back toward flat while operating income gives back a meaningful portion of the 2025 jump, the market will likely stop treating this as a defensive compounder and re-rate it closer to a high-teens P/E, which would point to a stock in the low-to-mid $90s.
Grok Reading
CCEP’s numbers describe a mature bottler that has finished its easy growth phase and is now manufacturing earnings through the P&L rather than the top line. Revenue climbed from $15.93B in 2021 to $24.20B in 2025, but that arc is dominated by the APAC combination; the latest print is only +2.3% year-on-year to $24.20B, while free-cash-flow CAGR over the period is a tepid 1.6%. What the market is actually paying for sits in the margin line: operating income jumped from $2.47B to $3.23B and net income from $1.64B to $2.25B—a 37% earnings surge that lifted operating margin to 13.4% and net margin to 9.3%. At $107.50 the stock screens at 21.8× trailing earnings, 14.0× EV/EBITDA and 2.0× sales against a balance sheet carrying $12.38B of debt, only $1.06B of cash and a current ratio of 0.80. A 5.4% FCF yield on $2.55B of free cash flow is respectable for a defensive name, yet it does not justify a full turn of multiple above the historical 15–18× bottler range when organic growth has already slowed to low single digits.
The quantitative models flag fair value near $94 and a thesis score of –17; the raw data support that skepticism more than they refute it. Revenue CAGR of 6.9% and earnings CAGR of 7.9% look fine in isolation until you isolate the post-integration window and watch top-line deceleration collide with an FCF engine that is barely compounding. ROE of 23.4% is flattered by leverage (debt-to-equity 1.29) and by an equity base of only $9.61B; ROIC of 11.9% is more honest and merely adequate for a capital-intensive distribution network. The “steady-compounder” narrative is doing real work here: the 14–15% premium to DCF is almost entirely story—Coca-Cola brand safety, premiumization mix, pricing power—rather than demonstrated volume or category optionality. When a bottler’s recent revenue growth is 2.3% and its FCF growth is 1.6%, a 21.8× earnings multiple is pricing perfection in margin sustainability that the volume backdrop does not underwrite.
The strongest counter-argument is straightforward and data-backed. 2024 operating profit of $2.47B was an anomalous trough (10.4% margin) after 2023’s $2.71B; the 2025 recovery to $3.23B and 13.4% margin could mark a new, higher plateau rather than a one-year spike, especially if commodity pass-through and mix shift toward energy and away-from-home continue. Gross margin has held at 35.6% while the company still throws off $3.42B of operating cash flow and funds both a 2.2% dividend and residual deleveraging. Fortress local distribution and the Coca-Cola system relationship are genuine economic moats that have historically allowed bottlers to compound mid-teens returns on tangible capital even in flat volume environments. A bull can fairly claim that 21.8× is simply the new clearing price for scarce European consumer-defensive cash-flow duration, and that the APAC scale benefits are still only partially visible in the 2025 run-rate.
I would reverse the overvalued call if two things arrive together: full-year revenue growth re-accelerating and holding above 4–5% without sacrificing the newly expanded 13%+ operating margin, and clear evidence that FCF is compounding at mid-single digits rather than the current 1.6% trajectory—ideally accompanied by net leverage falling below 2.5× EBITDA so the equity duration shortens. A decisive multiple compression toward 17× on stable earnings would also flip the risk/reward without requiring a growth miracle. Until then the stock is a high-quality melting ice cube priced as if the ice is not melting.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
CCEP is a mature, cash-generative beverage bottler exhibiting steady operating performance: revenue climbed from 15.93B in 2021 to 24.20B in 2025 (about 11% CAGR, aided by the API acquisition), gross margin sits in a tight 35-37% band, and operating margin expanded to 13.4% in 2025 from 11% in 2021. Net income reached 2.25B in 2025 and FCF has been consistently 2.05-2.82B annually, delivering roughly 2.55B/yr of free cash. Earnings quality is clean: OCF/NI at 1.89x, accruals -4.3% of assets, and a Beneish M of -2.56 all indicate reported earnings are backed by cash, not accrual gimmickry. Share count is essentially flat (456M in 2025 vs 457M in 2021) with SBC only 0.2% of revenue, so per-share value is not being eroded. The clear constraint is the balance sheet: net debt of roughly 11.3B against just 1.06B of liquid cash, and an Altman Z of 2.5 (grey zone) reflect that leverage is a real feature of the model. However, with 2.55B in annual FCF and a stable, franchise-based earnings stream, debt service is comfortably covered. Moat is implied by the exclusive Coca-Cola bottling territories across Europe, Australia, Pacific and Indonesia -- a regulated, contract-based quasi-monopoly with pricing power evident in margin recovery from 2024's dip.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Debt maturity schedule and refinancing profile against the 11.3B net debt position
- Terms and duration of the Coca-Cola bottling agreements (renewal risk, pricing formulas)
- API (Coca-Cola Amatil) integration synergies vs 2024 margin dip -- whether 2025's 13.4% OpM is sustainable
- Currency exposure across EUR, GBP, AUD, IDR and hedging policy
- Capex intensity and maintenance vs growth split within the 2.55B FCF
Composite fair value sits at $95.07 and the signal-adjusted FV at $93.71, both below the $107.26 price, implying about -13% upside. The DCF at $112.91 is the only method that flatters the stock, and it relies on continued modest growth plus terminal assumptions being kind; the EPV floor of $59.38 shows what you own if growth stalls, so the real deserved band is roughly $90-100 for a mature, levered bottler. Earnings quality is high, so no haircut is warranted, but that just means the $94 deserved number is trustworthy, not that the price is cheap. What is priced in: continued pricing pass-through, mix shift to energy/sports drinks holding margins, and steady FCF conversion supporting the ~11B net debt. That's plausible, not heroic, which is why this isn't a short - but there is no margin of safety here. Paying a premium to composite FV for a mature bottler in a slow-growth category is the market treating quality as a free option; historically that's when defensive compounders deliver flat multi-year returns while earnings catch up.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Organic volume vs price/mix split in latest quarter to confirm pricing power is still doing the work
- Guidance on capex intensity and FCF conversion - any step-up erodes the DCF case
- Net debt trajectory and refinancing schedule given rate environment
- Energy/sports drink category growth contribution to segment mix
CCEP sits in the quietest possible corner of the sentiment map. The tape is modestly risk-on (+25), but with a beta of 0.48 in Consumer Defensive beverages, market direction barely registers on this name - it neither benefits from animal spirits nor gets punished when the S&P wobbles. Macro is explicitly neutral, so there is no rates or dollar story doing work here either. The active narrative is a moderate-intensity, moderate-durability steady-compounder pitch anchored to the Coca-Cola brand halo - not a cult, not a mania, but a familiar defensive posture that keeps a modest bid under the stock in uncertain tapes. The bear counter-story (secular CSD decline, capital intensity, mature Western European volumes) exists but lacks urgency or a catalyst to press it. Momentum reads positive (deleveraging, low revenue volatility, a recent 3.4% gap-up with no headline attached) which suggests quiet accumulation rather than narrative-driven buying. Analyst tone is not signaled as diverging. Net: gentle tailwind from the defensive-compounder frame and quiet momentum, offset by a stale-story risk and zero narrative excitement to attract flows. Balanced.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Whether any sell-side desk cuts European beverage volumes or flags PET/aluminum cost pressure - would activate the dormant bear frame
- VIX trajectory: a spike back above 20 would meaningfully strengthen the defensive bid
- Any independent-brand or GLP-1-linked soft-drink share loss headline that gives the secular-decline story fresh legs
- Analyst target revisions - flat consensus is the current default; a cluster of upgrades or downgrades would break the balance
The world is shifting toward functional, low-sugar and energy formats, and toward emerging-market per-capita gains — CCEP is partially on the right side of both (Monster, zero-sugar, Philippines) and squarely on the wrong side of Western European volume maturity. Macro is neutral (10y 4.72, positive curve) with cost inflation easing from 2022-23 extremes, which supports the margin recovery already visible in earnings. Consumer trade-down and grocer price resistance in Europe cap pricing as a growth lever from here, so incremental growth must come from mix and emerging markets. Net: a defensive, GDP-plus business whose earnings power grows faster than its volume, not a category compounder.
When we made this prediction on Aug 19, 2026, CCEP was $107.52. We expect it to be $106.00 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $90.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 19, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.
Post-Report Due Diligence NOTES
Evidence for a closer look, not a verdict — no score or designation on this page has been changed by it. Items marked material are ones where a conclusion above moves to the other side of the price.