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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Okta Inc. Class A Common Stock (OKTA) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-10-08): Designation Low · Gem Score -45 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 8 · Value -80 · Sentiment 79 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $85.40 vs $166.22 at analysis
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profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
price-history,income-trend,key-metrics,financials(statement tables),insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.
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Okta Inc. Class A Common Stock
OKTA NASDAQOkta Inc. Class A Common Stock represents the publicly traded shares of Okta, a cloud-based identity and access management company headquartered in San Francisco, California. Okta provides software that helps organizations securely manage digital identities and control access across applications, devices, and networks. Its core products include single sign-on, multi-factor authentication, lifecycle management, universal directory, API access management, and adaptive authentication tools. The company serves enterprises, small and medium-sized businesses, educational institutions, nonprofits, and government agencies across the United States and international markets. Okta’s platform is used to support workforce identity and customer identity needs, making it a key provider in cybersecurity and enterprise software infrastructure. The stock is commonly followed by market participants interested in the software and security sectors.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 1.31
Total Equity: $7.00B
Shares: 179,290,000
Total Debt: $350.00M
Cash: $858.00M
EBITDA: $162.00M
Total Debt: $350.00M
Cash: $858.00M
Revenue: $2.92B
Revenue: $2.92B
Revenue: $2.92B
Total Equity: $7.00B
Tax Rate: 7.8%
Equity: $7.00B
Total Debt: $350.00M
Cash: $858.00M
Current Liabilities: $2.55B
Long-Term Debt: $0.00
Total Debt: $350.00M
Total Equity: $7.00B
Shares: 179,290,000
Shares: 179,290,000
CapEx: -$9.00M
Shares: 179,290,000
Stock Price: $166.22
Net Income: $235.00M
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 29, 2026 3:41am (40d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.3B | $1.9B | $2.3B | $2.6B | $2.9B |
| Cost of Revenue | $396.4M | $546.0M | $581.0M | $618.0M | $661.0M |
| Gross Profit | $903.8M | $1.3B | $1.7B | $2.0B | $2.3B |
| Operating Expenses | $1.7B | $2.1B | $2.2B | $2.1B | $2.1B |
| Operating Income | -$767.1M | -$812.0M | -$516.0M | -$74.0M | $149.0M |
| Net Income | -$848.4M | -$815.0M | -$355.0M | $28.0M | $235.0M |
| EBITDA | -$755.0M | -$800.0M | -$504.0M | -$61.0M | $162.0M |
| EPS | $-5.73 | $-5.16 | $-2.17 | $0.16 | $1.33 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-5.73 | $-5.16 | $-2.17 | $0.06 | $1.31 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 29, 2026 3:30am (40d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $260.1M | $264.0M | $334.0M | $409.0M | $858.0M |
| Total Current Assets | $3.0B | $3.2B | $3.0B | $3.4B | $3.6B |
| Total Assets | $9.2B | $9.3B | $9.0B | $9.4B | $9.7B |
| Current Liabilities | $1.2B | $1.5B | $1.8B | $2.5B | $2.6B |
| Long-Term Debt | $1.8B | $2.2B | $1.2B | $349.0M | $0 |
| Total Liabilities | $3.3B | $3.8B | $3.1B | $3.0B | $2.7B |
| Total Equity | $5.9B | $5.5B | $5.9B | $6.4B | $7.0B |
| Retained Earnings | -$1.8B | -$2.5B | -$2.8B | -$2.8B | -$2.6B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 29, 2026 3:53am (40d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $104.1M | $86.0M | $512.0M | $750.0M | $884.0M |
| Capital Expenditure | -$12.3M | -$12.0M | -$8.0M | -$8.0M | -$9.0M |
| Free Cash Flow | $91.8M | $74.0M | $504.0M | $742.0M | $875.0M |
| Acquisitions (net) | -$215.2M | -$4.0M | -$22.0M | -$56.0M | -$56.0M |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividends Paid | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stock Buybacks | — | — | $0 | $0 | -$73.0M |
| Net Change in Cash | -$176.0M | -$2.0M | $71.0M | $73.0M | $449.0M |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 29, 2026 3:41am (40d ago)| Metric | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +42.9% | +21.8% | +15.3% | +11.8% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +45.2% | +28.2% | +18.4% | +13.4% |
| Operating Income Growth | -5.9% | +36.5% | +85.7% | +301.4% |
| Net Income Growth | +3.9% | +56.4% | +107.9% | +739.3% |
| EBITDA Growth | -6.0% | +37.0% | +87.9% | +365.6% |
Deep Analysis
Risk : Reward — upside vs downside from this company's own quarters
Computed 2026-09-24 02:03A +1σ run of quarters pays -80%; a −1σ run costs 85%. Ratio -0.9:1 (μ 12.9%, σ 4.3% , 16 pairs).
Older method (repeat-worst-quarter): -0.9 : 1
| Case | Growth | Margin | Fair value | vs price ($166.22) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull — recovery | +16% | 14.2% | $42.01 | -75% |
| Base — stabilizes | +11% | 12.3% | $31.20 | -81% |
| Bear — keeps slipping | +5% | 10.5% | $22.65 | -86% |
| Stress — last quarter repeats | +12% | 9.6% | $25.61 | -85% |
| Upside — a +1σ run of quarters (v2) | +17% | 10.6% | $33.28 | -80% |
| Stress — a −1σ run of quarters (v2) | +9% | 10.6% | $25.42 | -85% |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Growth Outlook
Analyzed 2026-08-29 04:06The question every valuation on this page silently assumes: is this company likely to grow? Judged forward — the business, its category, the world — against what's already printed.
Claude Reading
The raw trajectory here is genuinely impressive and I want to separate that from the valuation question. Quarterly revenue went $665M→$688M→$728M→$742M→$761M→$765M→$805M — the July print is a clean sequential acceleration (+5.2% QoQ, the strongest in the series) after four quarters of ~2-3% sequential. Net income margin expanded from 2.4% to 14.4% over eight quarters, and TTM FCF of $875M on $2.92B revenue is a 30% FCF margin — that is a real software business, not a story. At $30B market cap, EV is roughly $29.5B (net cash ~$508M), so EV/FCF ≈ 34x on trailing, closer to ~27-28x on forward if FCF grows with revenue. That is not obviously egregious for a 12-15% grower with 77% gross margins and expanding operating leverage.
Where I part company with the synthesis "$71 fair value" verdict: that number implies EV/FCF around 15x, which is a distressed-melting-ice-cube multiple, not appropriate for a business generating $875M of FCF growing FCF at 31% CAGR with a fortress balance sheet ($858M cash vs $350M debt). The EV/EBITDA of 177x is correctly flagged as garbage — GAAP EBITDA is suppressed by SBC and near-breakeven op income, but cash generation is the real signal. P/E of 127x is similarly misleading because net income only recently inflected. I think the composite fair value is anchored on the wrong denominators. That said, the signal-adjusted $91 is more defensible; a fair value band of $110-135 (EV/FCF 25-30x, PEG-reasonable for this profile) feels more honest than either $71 or $166.
The contrarian-to-the-contrarians case: Microsoft Entra bundling has been "killing Okta" in analyst notes for three years, and yet Q2 revenue accelerated to 10.6% YoY with margins ripping. If Entra were actually winning, you would see it in the numbers by now — you don't. The 2022 breach is four years stale. Auth0 attach and Identity Governance are becoming real revenue lines. The market narrative layer calls this "platform-monopoly, anchored" — I think that's directionally right; the anchoring is doing more work than the narrative premium. The bear story requires deceleration below 10% and margin stall; the actual data shows the opposite in the most recent print. Where I'd push back on my own bullishness: revenue CAGR of 13.6% is materially below the 20%+ that peer SaaS at 10x sales requires, and RPO/billings weren't provided here — a single strong quarter isn't a trend, and insider activity is net selling (four sales, one option exercise, in July alone).
Data gaps that matter: no RPO, no net retention rate (NRR is the single most important Okta metric and it's missing), no SBC disclosure (which likely explains why GAAP NI understates true dilution — the $235M NI vs $875M FCF gap is largely SBC add-back, meaning "real" owner earnings are closer to $400-500M, not $875M). Adjusting for a ~$400M SBC drag, EV/owner-earnings is closer to 60-70x, which does support the overvalued call more than my FCF math suggests. This is the crux: if you believe SBC is a real cost (it is), the synthesis verdict has more merit; if you use headline FCF, the stock is reasonable. I'll split the difference — modestly overvalued, not 45% overvalued. Fair value $130-140, current $166 implies ~20% downside, not 45%. I dissent partially from the synthesis: right direction, wrong magnitude. The market-forces "neutral" and narrative "anchored/moderate durability" reads are closer to correct than the DCF composite. I would not short this; I would not chase it at $166; I'd be a buyer in the $130s if the Q3 print confirms the acceleration.
GPT Reading
Okta’s numbers tell a cleaner story than the stock price does. This is no longer a cash-burning SaaS turnaround hope case: trailing quarterly revenue has stepped from $665M to $805M over eight reported quarters, while net margin improved from 2.4% to 14.4%. Annual revenue rose from $2.26B in FY24 to $2.61B in FY25 to $2.92B in FY26, and operating income swung from -$516M to -$74M to +$149M in just two years. Free cash flow at $875M on $2.92B of revenue is exceptional on its face, nearly 30% of sales, and the balance sheet is clean with $858M cash against just $350M debt. If you screen for “durable software business that has crossed into profitability,” Okta qualifies. The problem is that the market is already paying as if this operational rehabilitation is only the midpoint, not the achievement.
At $30.1B of market cap and roughly 10.2x sales, investors are capitalizing a business whose actual top-line growth has slowed to something much closer to low teens than high growth. The latest quarter’s $805M was up 11.8% year over year; the annual revenue CAGR over the provided period is 13.6%. That is respectable, but it is not the kind of growth that comfortably supports a double-digit revenue multiple unless margins are headed materially higher from here. Gross margin at 77.4% is healthy, but FY26 operating margin was only 5.1%, and even the recent quarterly run-rate, while improving, does not yet prove a stable 20%+ operating model. On annual numbers, the P/E is 127x and EV/revenue about 9.8x. That’s a valuation for a business expected either to reaccelerate growth or to deliver much fatter earnings soon; the raw data only clearly supports “profitable now,” not “superior economics already earned.”
What stands out most is the disconnect between excellent cash generation and only modest GAAP profitability. Operating cash flow of $884M versus operating income of $149M is a huge spread. Some of that is normal for SaaS, but it also means headline FCF is flattering the current valuation case more than net income does. With capex only $9M, nearly all operating cash flow drops to free cash flow, which makes the business look more mature and cash-rich than its income statement multiple suggests. That cash deserves credit, and the company’s financial risk is low, but the market appears to be valuing Okta on premium quality and strategic category leadership at the same time that the growth curve is bending down. A 10x sales multiple on 12% growth can work for a best-in-class compounder with obvious pricing power and widening margins; for Okta, it demands a degree of confidence in competitive durability that the numbers alone do not give me.
The best argument against this bearish valuation read is straightforward: the business may be early in a margin unlock that makes today’s multiples look less extreme very quickly. Quarterly net income went from $16M in the October 2024 quarter to $116M in the latest quarter on revenue up just $140M, which is powerful incremental profitability. If that trend persists, then FY26’s 5.1% operating margin materially understates forward earning power. A company with 77% gross margin, minimal capex needs, net cash, and almost $900M of annual free cash flow can plausibly grow into a premium multiple even with only low-teens revenue growth. The bull case would also say that identity is sticky, mission-critical, and not easily displaced once embedded, so decelerating growth does not necessarily mean deteriorating economics. I take that seriously; it is why I see this as overvalued rather than broken.
What would change my mind is evidence that Okta can either reaccelerate growth back toward the mid-teens sustainably or convert the current revenue base into clearly double-digit operating margins on an annual basis. If the next few quarters show revenue compounding from $805M toward $850M+ with year-over-year growth lifting rather than slipping, that would justify more of the premium. Alternatively, if FY27 operating income looks on track for $350M-$450M and free cash flow stays near or above $900M without quality deterioration, then the stock could deserve a much higher floor than a standard maturing SaaS multiple. Absent that, I think the market is paying today for a version of Okta that is better than the one the reported numbers currently prove.
Grok Reading
The raw numbers describe a company that has completed a textbook SaaS rehabilitation and is now being asked to justify a premium that belongs to a different growth regime. Revenue climbed from $1.30B in FY2022 to $2.92B in FY2026, but the trajectory has clearly bent: the latest four quarters run $742M → $761M → $765M → $805M, and trailing revenue growth has compressed to roughly 12% year-over-year against a 13.6% multi-year CAGR. That is no longer high-growth infrastructure; it is mid-teens software with a decelerating pulse. What *has* transformed is cash generation and the P&L. Operating income swung from –$812M (FY2023) to +$149M (FY2026); free cash flow hit $875M on only $9M of capex, a 30% FCF margin that is the single strongest fact in the entire briefing. Quarterly net margins have stepped from 2.4% to 14.4% in two years. The balance sheet is pristine—$858M cash against $350M debt, debt-to-equity 0.05. So the fundamental story is real: Okta is now a profitable, cash-compounding identity franchise. The valuation story is not. At $166 and a $30B enterprise, the stock trades at 10.2× sales, ~10× EV/revenue, and 127× earnings while ROIC sits at 2.1% and ROE at 3.4%. Those returns on capital are incompatible with a double-digit sales multiple unless growth reaccelerates and operating margins march toward the mid-20s. Neither is visible in the current run-rate.
The prior models correctly flag overvaluation on a composite fair value near $91, and the narrative layer explains the gap: the market is still paying an 80%+ premium for the “identity as the new perimeter / platform monopoly” story. That narrative is fraying. Growth is decelerating, not reaccelerating post-Auth0; Microsoft Entra bundling is structural, not cyclical; and an EV/EBITDA of 177 is simply a mathematical artifact of still-thin EBITDA, not a signal of quality. Insider activity in July 2026 was net selling across multiple blocks totaling nearly 70k shares, which is not catastrophic but is directionally unhelpful at these prices. FCF quality is excellent and the gross margin of 77% gives real operating leverage left to harvest, but leverage on 12% revenue growth does not underwrite a 10× sales multiple when peer mature SaaS clears closer to 5–7×. The stock has already rerated from the $63 distress zone on the profitability proof; the remaining gap between $91 signal-adjusted value and $166 is pure narrative duration risk.
The strongest case against an overvalued read is the FCF engine itself. Annualizing the current cash-flow run-rate and applying even a conservative 25–30× FCF multiple on a path to 20%+ operating margins could support a mid-$100s price if growth stabilizes in the mid-teens and churn stays low. Switching costs in enterprise IAM are genuinely high once Okta is embedded across hybrid and multi-cloud estates, and the step-up in quarterly net income to $116M (14.4% margin) shows the operating model is still expanding, not plateauing. A bull can fairly argue that FY2026’s 5% operating margin is a trough-to-midpoint print and that the $875M FCF already implies far more earnings power than the $235M net income suggests. I weigh that less heavily because the multiple already capitalizes that margin expansion and then some; any stumble in net-new ARR or further competitive share loss to Microsoft collapses the narrative premium before the margin story can fully pay for it. At 10× sales with 12% growth, the asymmetry is skewed to the downside.
Reacceleration of organic revenue growth back above 18–20% for two consecutive quarters, or a clear print of 20%+ operating margin with stable competitive win rates against Entra, would force a reassessment toward fair value in the $140–160 zone. Absent that, the stock is priced for perfection that the decelerating top line no longer supports.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
The trajectory is genuinely improving: revenue grew from 1.30B (FY22) to 2.92B (FY26), gross margin expanded from 69.5% to 77.4%, and operating margin swung from -59% to +5.1%. Net income turned positive (28M in FY25, 235M in FY26) and FCF scaled from 91.8M to 875M — a real inflection, not a one-quarter blip. Balance sheet is comfortable: 858M liquid cash, 508M net cash, Altman Z of 6.77, OCF/NI of 5.78x and accruals of -8.8% of assets all indicate the reported earnings are backed by cash.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Customer concentration and net revenue retention trend disclosed in 10-K/investor materials
- Competitive share losses to Microsoft Entra in enterprise IAM
- Composition of SBC (grants vs vesting) and whether the 4.9% dilution rate is set to moderate
- Any convertible debt or off-balance-sheet obligations behind the 350M gross debt
- Segment split between Workforce Identity and Customer Identity (Auth0) and Auth0 integration health
The composite FV of $71 and signal-adjusted FV of $91 both sit far below the $166.22 price, implying the market is discounting sustained high growth, margin expansion, and durable moat protection against Microsoft Entra. Even taking the more generous DCF at $85 as the anchor, the gap is roughly 49% - the price is not asking for a slight beat, it is asking for platform-monopoly outcomes to actually show up in cash flow per share. The EPV floor at negative $4 tells you almost none of today's value is backed by current earnings power; it is all terminal-story.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- FY guide for billings and cRPO growth - deceleration below ~10% collapses the terminal story
- Microsoft Entra win/loss commentary in the transcript
- Net revenue retention trajectory (was drifting toward ~110%)
- SBC as % of revenue trend - any decline would raise deserved per-share value
- Buyback pace vs gross issuance
The non-fundamental pressure on OKTA is decisively positive right now. A 29% single-day earnings surge to a four-year high, a raised guide, and a fresh AI-agent narrative hook (Agent SSO, '90 new identities per worker') have re-energized what was a stale platform-monopoly story. The bull case has been handed a new durability argument - AI agents multiply identities, and Okta sits at the choke point - which is exactly the kind of narrative refresh that extends a story archetype's shelf life and pulls in momentum buyers. Analyst tone and headline flow are uniformly constructive, and technicals (breakout above 20d and 50d) invite trend-followers. The macro backdrop amplifies rather than fights this: VIX 14, mild risk-on regime, S&P near highs. OKTA's 0.76 beta means the tape isn't a major factor either way, but the calm tape lets a single-name narrative dominate the pressure - and here the narrative is loud and fresh. The only sentiment overhang is the still-embedded high-multiple expectation and lingering breach memory, but neither is the active story this week. Net: strong tailwind, with the caveat that post-blowoff moves like this can mean-revert if the next data point disappoints.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Whether analyst target revisions catch up with the price in the next 1-2 weeks (confirms or fades the tailwind)
- Follow-through volume - does the breakout hold above the pre-earnings gap or fill back in
- Any Microsoft Entra competitive news that could puncture the AI-identity moat framing
- Cybersecurity sector rotation - if CRWD/PANW cool, OKTA loses cohort support
Identity is one of the few security budget lines that survives cost scrutiny — it is a compliance and access prerequisite, not discretionary tooling — so the demand floor is high. But the world is changing in a way that is mixed for Okta: the shift to agentic/AI workloads multiplies identities to be governed (favorable, and Okta has product aimed at it), while the same shift concentrates buying power with platform vendors who can bundle identity into an existing suite. Macro is a headwind at the margin (4.67% 10y, tighter IT budgets, soft tech headcount) which suppresses seat expansion more than renewals. Net: a growing world that pays Okta less per unit of growth than it did three years ago.
When we made this prediction on Aug 29, 2026, OKTA was $166.22. We expect it to be $149.00 by Mar 2027, and we consider it great value under $110.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 29, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.
Post-Report Due Diligence NOTES
Evidence for a closer look, not a verdict — no score or designation on this page has been changed by it. Items marked material are ones where a conclusion above moves to the other side of the price.