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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Elbit Systems Ltd. (ESLT) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-27): Designation Low · Gem Score -19 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 65 · Value -75 · Sentiment 46 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $200.63 vs $730.40 at analysis
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Elbit Systems Ltd.
ESLT NASDAQElbit Systems Ltd. is an international high-technology defense company that develops and supplies a broad portfolio of systems for airborne, land, and naval applications. Its solutions serve defense, homeland security, and commercial aviation customers across Israel, North America, Europe, the Asia-Pacific, Latin America, and other global markets. The company operates through distinct business segments including aerospace, C4I and cyber, intelligence, surveillance, target acquisition and reconnaissance (ISTAR) and electronic warfare, land systems, and its U.S.-focused Elbit Systems of America unit. Elbit Systems provides products such as avionics, unmanned aerial systems, precision-guided munition sensors, training and simulation platforms, C4ISR networks, tactical communications, cyber intelligence tools, electro-optic and laser systems, and protection and survivability solutions for armored vehicles and other platforms. It typically works as a prime contractor or subcontractor to government, military, and homeland security clients, integrating advanced technologies into both new builds and modernization programs. Elbit Systems Ltd. was incorporated in 1966 and is headquartered in Haifa, Israel.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
This company does not file structured financial statements with the U.S. SEC, so quarterly figures aren't available from our filings-based data engine. Annual figures shown here come from the sources that do cover it.
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 11.39
Total Equity: $4.13B
Shares: 46,918,000
Total Debt: $101.45M
Cash: $635.14M
EBITDA: $842.86M
Total Debt: $101.45M
Cash: $635.14M
Revenue: $7.94B
Revenue: $7.94B
Revenue: $7.94B
Total Equity: $4.13B
Tax Rate: 9.9%
Equity: $4.13B
Total Debt: $101.45M
Cash: $635.14M
Current Liabilities: $5.98B
Long-Term Debt: $18.00M
Total Debt: $101.45M
Total Equity: $4.13B
Shares: 46,918,000
Shares: 46,918,000
CapEx: -$225.57M
Shares: 46,918,000
Stock Price: $730.40
Net Income: $534.34M
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 25, 2026 7:30am (43d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.3B | $5.5B | $6.0B | $6.8B | $7.9B |
| Cost of Revenue | $3.9B | $4.1B | $4.5B | $5.2B | $6.0B |
| Gross Profit | $1.4B | $1.4B | $1.5B | $1.6B | $1.9B |
| Operating Expenses | $939.5M | $1.0B | $1.1B | $1.2B | $1.3B |
| Operating Income | $418.5M | $367.5M | $369.1M | $489.1M | $671.4M |
| Net Income | $274.4M | $275.4M | $215.1M | $321.1M | $534.3M |
| EBITDA | $571.6M | $528.8M | $533.9M | $647.4M | $842.9M |
| EPS | $6.21 | $6.21 | $4.85 | $7.22 | $11.69 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $6.20 | $6.18 | $4.82 | $7.18 | $11.39 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 25, 2026 7:30am (43d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $259.0M | $211.1M | $197.4M | $265.4M | $635.1M |
| Total Current Assets | $5.0B | $5.0B | $5.5B | $6.4B | $7.7B |
| Total Assets | $9.3B | $9.2B | $9.7B | $11.0B | $12.7B |
| Current Liabilities | $4.0B | $4.3B | $4.8B | $5.3B | $6.0B |
| Long-Term Debt | $356.6M | $264.5M | $41.2M | $27.4M | $18.0M |
| Total Liabilities | $6.8B | $6.5B | $6.8B | $7.7B | $8.5B |
| Total Equity | $2.5B | $2.8B | $3.0B | $3.3B | $4.1B |
| Retained Earnings | $2.2B | $2.4B | $2.5B | $2.7B | $3.2B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 25, 2026 7:30am (43d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $416.9M | $240.1M | $113.7M | $534.6M | $778.4M |
| Capital Expenditure | -$188.6M | -$205.1M | -$187.0M | -$215.1M | -$225.6M |
| Free Cash Flow | $228.3M | $35.0M | -$73.3M | $319.6M | $552.8M |
| Acquisitions (net) | -$385.0M | -$12.4M | -$10.4M | $0 | $0 |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | -$59.8M | -$82.8M | -$226.2M | -$11.3M | -$11.4M |
| Dividends Paid | -$79.2M | -$86.8M | -$89.2M | -$89.0M | -$111.7M |
| Stock Buybacks | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net Change in Cash | -$19.8M | -$47.9M | -$13.7M | $67.9M | $369.8M |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 25, 2026 7:30am (43d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +4.4% | +8.4% | +14.3% | +16.3% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +1.1% | +8.0% | +10.7% | +17.9% |
| Operating Income Growth | -12.2% | +0.4% | +32.5% | +37.3% |
| Net Income Growth | +0.4% | -21.9% | +49.3% | +66.4% |
| EBITDA Growth | -7.5% | +1.0% | +21.3% | +30.2% |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 23, 2026 8:30am (45d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 | $1.00 | — | — | — |
| 2026-06-23 | $1.00 | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-13 | $1.00 | — | — | — |
| 2025-12-22 | $0.75 | — | — | — |
| 2025-10-14 | $0.75 | — | — | — |
| 2025-06-24 | $0.60 | — | — | — |
| 2025-04-22 | $0.60 | — | — | — |
| 2024-12-23 | $0.50 | — | — | — |
| 2024-10-15 | $0.50 | — | — | — |
| 2024-06-18 | $0.50 | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-23 | $0.50 | — | — | — |
| 2023-12-22 | $0.50 | — | — | — |
| 2023-10-06 | $0.50 | — | — | — |
| 2023-06-23 | $0.50 | — | — | — |
| 2023-04-17 | $0.50 | — | — | — |
| 2022-12-23 | $0.50 | — | — | — |
| 2022-10-05 | $0.50 | — | — | — |
| 2022-06-24 | $0.50 | — | — | — |
| 2022-04-08 | $0.50 | — | — | — |
| 2021-12-17 | $0.46 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Risk : Reward — upside vs downside from this company's own quarters
Computed 2026-08-26 02:21Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Growth Outlook
Analyzed 2026-08-25 07:57The question every valuation on this page silently assumes: is this company likely to grow? Judged forward — the business, its category, the world — against what's already printed.
Claude Reading
The raw numbers tell a coherent operational story that the models are underselling on the fundamentals but potentially overselling on the mean-reversion case. Revenue compounded from $5.28B (2021) to $7.94B (2025) — a 10.7% CAGR, accelerating to 16.3% YoY in the latest year. Net income went $274M → $215M → $275M → $321M → $534M, which is not a smooth compounder — it's a bottom in 2023 followed by explosive operating leverage as backlog converts. Operating margin expanded 620bps from 6.7% (2023) to 8.5% (2025), and net margin from 3.6% to 6.7%. That's real. Balance sheet is pristine: $101M debt vs $635M cash and $4.13B equity, D/E of 0.025. FCF of $553M on $778M OCF — the synthesis's "poor cash flow quality" flag is overstated; FCF/NI is 103%, which is not a red flag, it's clean conversion. Where the models are directionally right: at $730 the stock trades at 64x trailing earnings and 39x EV/EBITDA for a business earning 12.9% ROE and 16.8% ROIC. That's a Palantir-like multiple on a defense prime.
The synthesis DCF of $185–$193 is, however, almost certainly too punitive. It implies roughly a market-multiple compression to ~22x on trailing earnings with modest growth assumptions — but earnings are growing 66% YoY off an operational inflection, and consensus backlog dynamics in European defense (Germany's €100B fund, sustained Ukraine resupply, NATO 2%+ commitments becoming 3%+) don't project peace-dividend reversion in the next 3-5 years. If ESLT hits $10B revenue by 2027 at 9% net margin, that's $900M NI, and at even a 30x multiple (still premium but rational for the growth) you get ~$580/share — closer to $600 than $193. The "peak earnings" framing in Market Forces is possible but requires either a Middle East ceasefire holding AND European rearmament pausing — neither looks imminent. That said, 64x trailing is genuinely rich; RTX trades at 25x, LMT at 21x, GD at 20x. ESLT's premium reflects growth rate, but a 3x multiple premium on a defense prime demands the growth persists.
The contrarian case the models mostly capture but underweight: insider selling on 2026-04-09 is not the smoking gun it appears — the pattern is classic option-exercise-and-sell mechanics (M-exercise paired with S-sale and F-InKind tax withholding on the same day), not conviction dumping. That's a false positive in the "unusual insider activity" flag. The real contrarian argument is simpler: Israeli-domiciled defense contractor with concentrated geopolitical exposure trading at software multiples on hardware economics (24.4% gross margin — this is not a software business, full stop). The "platform monopoly" narrative archetype is a stretch; Elbit competes with Rafael, IAI, Anduril, Baykar, and every NATO prime. It's a strong niche player, not a monopoly. Narrative durability rated "moderate" is right — the entire premium unwinds on a credible Middle East de-escalation or a US administration pivot on Israel policy.
I partially dissent from the synthesis. The $193 fair value is too low — it doesn't credit the operating leverage inflection or the multi-year backlog visibility European defense procurement provides. But $730 is also indefensible on any reasonable multiple framework — you're paying 64x for 24% gross margins and a business exposed to Israeli sovereign/political risk. My read: fair value is $400–$500, meaning the stock is 30-45% overvalued, not 73%. The synthesis is right on direction, wrong on magnitude. This is a "great company, wrong price" situation where the market has correctly identified a structural growth story and then overpaid for it by ~2x. I would not short (defense narrative durability plus real earnings momentum is a painful short), would not buy here, and would revisit at $500 or on a Middle East ceasefire catalyst that shakes out the narrative premium.
GPT Reading
At the reported numbers level, Elbit is in the best earnings shape it has been in over the five-year window. Revenue has climbed from $5.28B in 2021 to $7.94B in 2025, a 50% increase, while operating income rose from $418.5M to $671.4M and net income from $274.4M to $534.3M. The most important detail is not just growth but the recovery in profitability: operating margin was 7.9% in 2021, slipped to 6.1% in 2023, then rebounded to 7.2% in 2024 and 8.5% in 2025; net margin likewise improved from 3.6% in 2023 to 4.7% in 2024 and 6.7% in 2025. That says this is not merely a contractor stuffing backlog into revenue at any price. It is converting a more favorable demand environment into better economics. Cash flow also does not support the “bad quality” alarm in this particular year: $778.4M of operating cash flow against $534.3M of net income is healthy, and $552.8M of free cash flow after $225.6M of capex is real cash generation. Add a net cash balance sheet — $635.1M of cash against just $101.5M of debt — and operationally this is a strong business, not a fragile war-trade.
The issue is almost entirely the price. At a $34.22B market cap, investors are paying 4.3x sales, 8.3x book, 64x earnings, and roughly 39x EV/EBITDA for a company with 8.5% operating margins and 6.7% net margins. Those multiples are not just rich versus defense peers; they are rich versus what Elbit itself fundamentally is: a good, improving, but still clearly industrial contractor. Even giving credit for the jump in 2025 earnings, the stock is discounting either a further step-change in margins toward low-double-digit net margins or a sustained period of very high revenue growth on a much larger base. The recent history does not justify that leap. Revenue CAGR of 15.3% is strong, but it is being capitalized like a scarce software-defense platform rather than a manufacturer/systems integrator. If I take 2025 net income of $534.3M as a base and assume a generous path to, say, $800M-$900M of earnings over several years, today’s price still looks like investors are prepaying for most of that upside.
I also think the model outputs overstate some of the negatives while still landing on the right valuation direction. Calling cash-flow quality “poor” looks wrong when operating cash flow exceeded net income by nearly $244M in 2025 and free cash flow topped $550M. Likewise, the insider selling data reads more like option exercise-and-sale activity than a decisive fundamental signal; the disclosed sales of 5,953 to 8,504 shares tied to same-day exercises are not enough on their own to tell a bearish story. The contradiction worth catching is that the business quality is better than the more alarmist read suggests, but that does not rescue the stock because the valuation excess is large enough on its own. A high-quality defense name can still be a bad stock at 64x earnings.
The strongest pushback is obvious: Elbit may be entering a structurally different demand era. Revenue rose 16.3% most recently, earnings 66.4%, ROIC is 16.8%, and 2025 appears to show operating leverage finally emerging after a few years of margin compression. If global rearmament is not a short burst but a decade-long procurement cycle, then comparing Elbit to a normal defense contractor may be too conservative. A business growing sales from $5.97B in 2023 to $7.94B in 2025 while nearly doubling net income from $215.1M to $534.3M can look optically expensive right before another leg up. And the fortress balance sheet matters: with essentially no leverage, Elbit has room to invest, acquire, or simply let earnings compound without financial stress. I weigh that case less heavily because even structural defense upcycles do not usually justify software-style multiples unless margins are far higher than Elbit’s current 24.4% gross, 8.5% operating, and 6.7% net levels. The market is already valuing the company as if the rerating has been won.
What would change my mind is not another year of 15%-plus revenue growth by itself; the stock needs proof that earnings power is sustainably much higher than 2025. Specifically, I would want to see operating margin hold above 9.5%-10% and net income move toward $700M+ without balance-sheet stretch, while free cash flow remains at least in the $600M-$700M range. If Elbit can show that 2025 was not a peak-benefit year but the first year of a new margin regime, then today’s multiple would still be rich but less absurd. Short of that, this is a very good defense company being priced like an exceptional compounder.
Grok Reading
Elbit’s operating trajectory is unambiguously strong. Revenue climbed from $5.28B in 2021 to $7.94B in 2025, a 15.3% CAGR that accelerated to 16.3% in the latest year, while net income more than doubled from $274M to $534M and operating income expanded from $418M to $671M. Operating margin improved to 8.5% and net margin to 6.7%, ROIC sits at a respectable 16.8%, and the balance sheet is fortress-like: $635M cash against only $102M of debt, equity of $4.13B, and debt-to-equity of 0.025. Free cash flow of $553M on $534M of net income in 2025 is clean on the surface and funds a modest dividend at a 21% payout. The quantitative story is a mature defense contractor delivering double-digit top-line growth and rapid earnings leverage off a multi-year rearmament cycle.
That fundamental improvement does not come close to justifying the multiple. At $730 the stock trades at 64x trailing earnings, 39x EV/EBITDA, 8.3x book and 4.3x sales—levels that embed software-platform permanence rather than industrial contractor economics. Even if net income compounds another 30% next year, the forward P/E remains near 50x on a business still printing mid-single-digit net margins and mid-teens ROIC. The rule-based archetype correctly flags a mature earner; the narrative layer correctly flags that virtually the entire gap between a cash-flow-normalized value near $190–200 and the current $730 price is story—NATO permanence, endless munitions demand, and Elbit as quasi-indispensable C4ISR/UAS integrator. Those themes are real today; they are not contractually perpetual, and Israeli political and U.S. policy risk remain unhedged wildcards sitting on top of an already stretched valuation.
The strongest counter-argument is duration and mix shift. Earnings CAGR of 57% and 66% year-over-year net-income growth show real operating leverage; if Elbit continues converting hardware programs into higher-margin software, EW and autonomous systems while Western defense budgets stay elevated for a decade, today’s multiple could be earned down through growth rather than multiple compression. The net-cash balance sheet and $553M FCF give management ample capacity to invest or return capital without stress, and the “poor cash-flow quality” flag looks overstated against the latest annual numbers where FCF exceeded net income. A bull can also note that peer defense multiples have structurally re-rated and that Elbit’s 15% revenue CAGR already exceeds classic primes. I weigh this less heavily because even generous 25–30x terminal multiples on stretched forward earnings still leave the stock 40–60% above any disciplined intrinsic range; the insider pattern of clustered option exercises immediately followed by sales in April 2026 adds a soft negative signal rather than endorsement at these levels.
I would reverse to neutral or constructive only on clear evidence that the earnings power is structurally higher and more durable than the current run-rate implies: specifically, sustained revenue growth above 18% with operating margins pushing through 12%, multi-year funded backlog coverage of at least 2.5–3x revenue, or two consecutive years of FCF conversion that keeps pace with the 50%+ earnings growth while the multiple compresses organically below 35x forward earnings without a price collapse.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Revenue compounded from $5.28B (2021) to $7.94B (2025), a ~10.7% CAGR, with operating margin inflecting from a 2023 trough of 6.2% back up to 8.5% in 2025 and net income more than doubling from $215M (2023) to $534M (2025). FCF swung from -$73M in 2023 to $553M in 2025, and OCF/NI of 1.21x with accruals at -0.8% of assets, Beneish M of -2.47, and Altman Z of 3.72 all point to genuine, cash-backed earnings rather than accrual-driven optics. The e2e module flagged 'Poor Cash Flow Quality' but the mechanical accruals and M-score contradict that; the more plausible read is that 2022-2023 working-capital drag (defense inventory/backlog build) suppressed FCF, and 2024-2025 unwound it. Balance sheet is self-funding: $635M liquid, $534M net cash, and $553M annual FCF, so survival math is not in question. Dilution is muted - diluted shares 44.3M to 46.9M over five years (~1.5% CAGR) with SBC only 0.3% of revenue - so per-share value is not being eroded. The A&D backdrop (post-2022 European rearmament) is a genuine tailwind, and Elbit's scale in ISR, UAS, and land systems provides structural demand visibility, though the module data alone cannot prove moat depth. Insider activity is the one blemish: seven sales totaling ~$61.9M in the last 12 months with zero open-market buys, though the April 2026 tape shows these are all option-exercise-and-sell (M then S same day) by five executives simultaneously - programmatic liquidity on vested comp, not a conviction signal, but the coordinated timing and absence of any P buys is worth noting.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- 10-K breakout of backlog by geography and segment to confirm demand durability
- Working-capital detail behind the 2022-2023 FCF trough vs 2025 recovery
- Whether the April 2026 executive sales were pre-scheduled 10b5-1 (or equivalent Israeli plan) transactions
- Customer concentration - share of revenue from Israeli MoD vs export
- Any convertible or off-balance-sheet financing tied to program advances
The e2e composite pegs deserved value at $185 with a signal-adjusted $193, versus a $730 print - a roughly 3.8x gap. Even the most generous anchored P/E method ($271) sits at 37% of price, and the EPV floor ($137) implies the market is capitalizing peak-cycle earnings as steady-state. I sanity-checked whether the models are runaway-low: EPV at $137 on a strong prime with expanding margins looks conservative, and the DCF at $166 likely uses a normalized order-book assumption rather than extrapolating Ukraine/Israel/NATO rearm burn. So the truth is probably a deserved value above the composite - call it $250-$350 on a quality-adjusted basis for a Strong-grade prime in a real demand cycle - but that still leaves the stock at roughly 2x deserved. This is a great business at a heroic price. What has to go right: sustained double-digit backlog growth for a decade, no European budget mean-reversion, no Israeli political discount, and margin expansion through the current gross-margin drift. That is a stack of good outcomes already paid for. Earnings quality is high so no haircut is warranted, but high quality does not close a 2-3x gap.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Backlog duration and book-to-bill trajectory - is the order flow durable past 2026?
- Gross-margin drift explanation - mix, FX, or program-cost creep?
- Segment disclosure on European vs Israeli vs US revenue to gauge budget-cycle sensitivity
- Normalized FCF conversion post working-capital dip
The dominant force on ESLT is the platform-monopoly defense narrative: NATO rearmament, Ukraine ammo burn, and the AI-defense pivot have built a strong, medium-durability story that has driven the stock to a ~278% premium over DCF fair value. That is pure sentiment pressure, and it is currently pushing up, not down. The narrative is intense enough and the cult coefficient high enough that even routine geopolitical headlines feed the bid rather than fade it. The neutral macro tape (VIX 15.9, S&P just 1.9% off highs) is a non-event for this name, and with a negative beta of -0.27 any risk-off flare would actually help it on a relative basis. Higher rates and a rich market PE are broad headwinds, but defense as a sector is trading on order-book visibility, not discount rates, so the macro drag lands soft here. Analyst tone and momentum (15% CAGR, low volatility) reinforce the story rather than challenge it. The main sentiment risk is narrative fatigue or a credible de-escalation headline (Ukraine ceasefire, Gaza wind-down) that would puncture the 'perpetual crisis' premium fast, but nothing on the current tape suggests that break is imminent.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Ukraine ceasefire or de-escalation headlines that would puncture the perpetual-crisis premium
- European defense budget follow-through in 2026 appropriations
- Order-flow announcements and backlog updates - the narrative feeds on these
- Any US policy shift on Israel arms exports
- Sector rotation signals - if defense ETFs (ITA, PPA) start underperforming, the cohort narrative is cracking
The world is re-arming on a decade horizon rather than a quarter: European members lifting spend toward and beyond 2-3% of GDP, Ukraine consuming munitions faster than the West can build them, and Middle East demand elevated. That favours suppliers of combat-proven, near-term-deliverable hardware over primes selling 2035 platforms — Elbit's exact slot. Rates near 4.74% and macro headwinds matter little because the customer is a sovereign with legislated budgets. The genuine world-level risk is political rather than economic: allied procurement politics around Israeli-origin systems, and any durable regional settlement that flips replenishment from urgent to routine.
When we made this prediction on Aug 25, 2026, ESLT was $724.13. We expect it to be $635.00 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $380.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 25, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.
Post-Report Due Diligence NOTES
Evidence for a closer look, not a verdict — no score or designation on this page has been changed by it. Items marked material are ones where a conclusion above moves to the other side of the price.