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AGING Analysis Report
Jun 7, 2026
19 days ago · 100% complete

Tyson Foods, Inc.

TSN NYSE Categories PDF
Consumer Defensive · Agricultural Farm Products
Springdale, AR 72762-6999, United States IPO 1980 tysonfoods.com Updated Jun 7, 5:12pm
Price
$58.73
Market Cap
$20.9B
Employees
138,000
Beta
0.38
Avg Volume
2,927,195
CEO
Donnie D. King
Business Description

Tyson Foods, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a food company worldwide. It operates through four segments: Beef, Pork, Chicken, and Prepared Foods. The company processes live fed cattle and live market hogs; fabricates dressed beef and pork carcasses into primal and sub-primal meat cuts, as well as case ready beef and pork, and fully cooked meats; raises and processes chickens into fresh, frozen, and value-added chicken products; and supplies poultry breeding stock; sells specialty products, such as hides and meats. It also manufactures and markets frozen and refrigerated food products, including ready-to-eat sandwiches, flame-grilled hamburgers, Philly steaks, pepperoni, bacon, breakfast sausage, turkey, lunchmeat, hot dogs, flour and corn tortilla products, appetizers, snacks, prepared meals, ethnic foods, side dishes, meat dishes, breadsticks, and processed meats under the Jimmy Dean, Hillshire Farm, Ball Park, Wright, State Fair, Aidells, and Gallo Salame brands. The company also offers its products under Tyson and ibp brands. It sells its products through its sales staff to grocery retailers, grocery wholesalers, meat distributors, warehouse club stores, military commissaries, industrial food processing companies, chain restaurants or their distributors, live markets, international export companies, and domestic distributors who serve restaurants and food service operations, such as plant and school cafeterias, convenience stores, hospitals, and other vendors, as well as through independent brokers and trading companies. The company was founded in 1935 and is headquartered in Springdale, Arkansas.

Business History
Generated: Jun 7, 2026 5:17pm
Price Overview
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:14pm (19d ago)
$58.73
+1.85 (+3.25%)
Day Range
$57.01 – $59.55
52-Week Range
$50.56 – $69.48
50-Day MA
$64.60
200-Day MA
$59.38
Volume
4,160,126.00
Analyst Price Targets
Low $69.00
Consensus $75.00
High $80.00
(39 analysts)
Share Structure
Outstanding 355,999,457.00
Float 346,858,458.00
Free Float 97.4%
High free float — 97.4% of shares trade freely, ~2.6% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:20pm (19d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:20pm (19d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
API Direct from provider CALC Derived from statements
Industry comparison last run: Jun 7, 2026 5:16pm
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
API
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
45.77
Stock Price: $58.73
EPS (Diluted): 1.36
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
API
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
1.04
Stock Price: $58.73
Total Equity: $18.09B
Shares: 348,000,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
API
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
11.25
Market Cap: $20.91B
Total Debt: $8.83B
Cash: $1.23B
EBITDA: $2.58B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
API
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$26.5B
Market Cap: $20.91B
Total Debt: $8.83B
Cash: $1.23B
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
API
Gross Profit / Revenue
6.5%
Gross Profit: $3.56B
Revenue: $54.44B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
API
Operating Income / Revenue
2.6%
Operating Income: $1.44B
Revenue: $54.44B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
API
Net Income / Revenue
0.9%
Net Income: $474.00M
Revenue: $54.44B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
API
Net Income / Total Equity
2.5%
Net Income: $474.00M
Total Equity: $18.09B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
API
NOPAT / Invested Capital
2.7%
Operating Income: $1.44B
Tax Rate: 34.1%
Equity: $18.09B
Total Debt: $8.83B
Cash: $1.23B
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
API
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
1.55
Current Assets: $9.92B
Current Liabilities: $6.39B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
CALC
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.49
Short-Term Debt: $909.00M
Long-Term Debt: $7.92B
Total Debt: $8.83B
Total Equity: $18.09B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
CALC
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$156.44
Revenue: $54.44B
Shares: 348,000,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
CALC
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$51.97
Total Equity: $18.09B
Shares: 348,000,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
CALC
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$3.38
Operating CF: $2.16B
CapEx: -$978.00M
Shares: 348,000,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
API
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
3.7%
Last Dividend: N/A
Stock Price: $58.73
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $474.00M
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Jun 7, 2026 5:16pm
Compares TSN against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Deep Analysis
Last run: Jun 7, 2026 5:19:24 pm

Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.

0 Company Classification — What type of company is this?
1 Industry Landscape — Where is the industry headed?
2 Company Momentum — Where is this company trending?
3 Forward Projection — 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a DCF Valuation — Present value of future cash flows
4b Earnings Power Value — Floor value — worth with zero growth
4c Anchored PE — Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
4d Reverse DCF — What growth is the market pricing in?
4e Revenue-Based DCF — For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4f Anchored P/S — Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4g Scenario Analysis — Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4h Dividend Discount Model — For dividend/income stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4i Book Value Analysis — For deep value / turnaround stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4j Insider Activity — Are insiders buying or selling?
4f Cash Flow Quality — How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g Debt Maturity Risk — Can it handle its debt?
4h Macro Environment — Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i Sector Intelligence — How does this company compare within its sector?
4j Revenue Confidence — How reliable is the growth projection?
4k Sensitivity Analysis — How fragile is the fair value estimate?
4l Sector Demand Cycle — Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5 AI Investigation — Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b Thesis Evaluation — What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
6 Valuation Synthesis — Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:20pm (19d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $47.0B $53.3B $52.9B $53.3B $54.4B
Cost of Revenue $40.5B $46.6B $50.3B $49.7B $50.9B
Gross Profit $6.5B $6.7B $2.6B $3.6B $3.6B
Operating Expenses $2.1B $2.3B $3.0B $2.2B $2.1B
Operating Income $4.4B $4.4B -$395.0M $1.4B $1.4B
Net Income $3.0B $3.2B -$648.0M $800.0M $474.0M
EBITDA $5.7B $5.7B $1.0B $3.0B $2.6B
EPS $8.57 $9.18 $-1.87 $2.31 $1.36
EPS (Diluted)
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:15pm (19d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $2.5B $1.0B $573.0M $1.7B $1.2B
Total Current Assets $9.8B $9.6B $8.7B $9.8B $9.9B
Total Assets $36.3B $36.8B $36.3B $37.1B $36.7B
Current Liabilities $6.3B $5.3B $6.5B $4.8B $6.4B
Long-Term Debt $8.3B $7.9B $7.6B $9.7B $7.9B
Total Liabilities $18.5B $17.0B $18.0B $18.6B $18.4B
Total Equity $17.7B $19.7B $18.1B $18.4B $18.1B
Retained Earnings $17.5B $20.1B $18.8B $18.9B $18.6B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:20pm (19d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $3.8B $2.7B $1.8B $2.6B $2.2B
Capital Expenditure -$1.2B -$1.9B -$1.9B -$1.1B -$978.0M
Free Cash Flow $2.6B $800.0M -$187.0M $1.5B $1.2B
Acquisitions (net) $1.1B -$177.0M -$377.0M $145.0M $0
Debt Repayment
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks -$67.0M -$702.0M -$354.0M -$49.0M -$196.0M
Net Change in Cash $1.2B -$1.6B -$458.0M $1.1B -$488.0M
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:14pm (19d ago)
Metric 2026 2027 2028 2029
Revenue $56.5B
$55.8B – $57.1B
$56.9B
$56.1B – $57.5B
$58.2B
$58.2B – $58.2B
$60.7B
$59.9B – $61.5B
EBITDA $4.0B
$3.9B – $4.0B
$4.0B
$3.9B – $4.0B
$4.1B
$4.1B – $4.1B
$4.3B
$4.2B – $4.3B
Net Income $1.4B
$1.4B – $1.5B
$1.6B
$1.4B – $1.7B
$2.0B
$2.0B – $2.0B
$2.3B
$2.3B – $2.3B
EPS
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:20pm (19d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +13.2% -0.8% +0.8% +2.1%
Gross Profit Growth +2.2% -60.5% +37.9% -1.8%
Operating Income Growth +0.3% -109.0% +456.7% +2.3%
Net Income Growth +6.3% -120.0% +223.5% -40.8%
EBITDA Growth +0.6% -82.2% +192.6% -13.3%
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:19pm (19d ago)
Type codes PPurchase SSale AAward / grant MOption exercise FIn-kind (tax) CConversion GGift DReturn to issuer
All SEC Form 4 codes
Open market
P Purchase
Open-market or private purchase of shares.
S Sale
Open-market or private sale of shares.
Compensation (Rule 16b-3)
A Award / grant
Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
D Return to issuer
Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
F In-kind (tax)
Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
I Discretionary
Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
M Option exercise
Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
Derivatives
C Conversion
Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
E Short expiration
Expiration of a short derivative position.
H Long expiration
Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
O OTM exercise
Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
X ITM exercise
Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
Other exempt
G Gift
Bona fide gift of securities.
L Small acquisition
Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
W Inheritance
Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
Z Voting trust
Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
Other
J Other
Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
K Equity swap
Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
U Tender / buyout
Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.

Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.

Date Insider Type Shares Price Value
2026-06-15 MORRIS WES 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-15 MORRIS WES 28,876.44 $0.00 $0
2025-11-18 MORRIS WES 59,183.00 $64.54 $3.8M
2024-11-17 MORRIS WES 22,065.00 $48.74 $1.1M
2025-12-23 COLE DEVIN J-Other 24,923.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-09 COLE DEVIN F-InKind 766.00 $68.38 $52,379
2026-05-10 COLE DEVIN F-InKind 7,510.00 $68.38 $513,534
2026-05-10 COLE DEVIN F-InKind 3,015.00 $68.38 $206,166
2026-04-06 Thomas Phillip W 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-04-06 Thomas Phillip W 765.66 $0.00 $0
2024-11-17 Thomas Phillip W 3,862.00 $48.74 $188,234
2019-11-19 Thomas Phillip W 3,855.00 $59.42 $229,064
2017-11-28 Thomas Phillip W 2,261.00 $58.34 $131,907
2018-11-17 Thomas Phillip W 2,400.00 $77.97 $187,128
2020-11-18 Thomas Phillip W 2,611.00 $89.98 $234,938
2021-11-20 Thomas Phillip W 3,910.00 $60.74 $237,493
2022-11-19 Thomas Phillip W 2,647.00 $81.51 $215,757
2023-11-18 Thomas Phillip W 2,766.00 $65.52 $181,228
2025-11-18 Thomas Phillip W 3,139.00 $64.54 $202,591
2026-02-09 HANSON JACQUELINE F-InKind 1,925.00 $65.40 $125,895
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:14pm (19d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-09-01 $0.51 2026-05-07 2026-09-01 2026-09-15
2026-06-01 $0.51 2026-02-04 2026-06-01 2026-06-15
2026-02-27 $0.51 2025-11-07 2026-02-27 2026-03-13
2025-12-01 $0.51 2025-08-07 2025-12-01 2025-12-15
2025-08-29 $0.50 2025-05-09 2025-08-29 2025-09-12
2025-05-30 $0.50 2025-02-06 2025-05-30 2025-06-13
2025-02-28 $0.50 2024-11-08 2025-02-28 2025-03-14
2024-11-29 $0.50 2024-08-08 2024-11-29 2024-12-13
2024-08-30 $0.49 2024-05-09 2024-08-30 2024-09-13
2024-05-31 $0.49 2024-02-08 2024-05-31 2024-06-14
2024-02-29 $0.49 2023-11-10 2024-03-01 2024-03-15
2023-11-30 $0.49 2023-08-10 2023-12-01 2023-12-15
2023-08-31 $0.48 2023-05-11 2023-09-01 2023-09-15
2023-05-31 $0.48 2023-02-09 2023-06-01 2023-06-15
2023-02-28 $0.48 2022-11-14 2023-03-01 2023-03-15
2022-11-30 $0.46 2022-08-11 2022-12-01 2022-12-15
2022-08-31 $0.46 2022-05-23 2022-09-01 2022-09-15
2022-05-31 $0.46 2022-02-09 2022-06-01 2022-06-15
2022-02-28 $0.46 2021-11-12 2022-03-01 2022-03-15
2021-11-30 $0.46 2021-11-12 2021-12-01 2021-12-15
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for TSN — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Delvantic AI Findings
Independent analyst synthesis · Delvantic - Cairn AI · generated 2026-06-07 17:19:57
Reviews the pipeline's own verdicts
Verdict Fairly valued at $58 with cyclical upside optionality — synthesis $19 target is mechanically wrong by capitalizing trough earnings; hold/starter position justified, add aggressively if Q2 confirms margin recovery above 1.5%.

Looking at the raw quarterly trajectory first: revenue is flat-to-slightly-up ($13.35B → $13.65B over seven quarters, ~2% YoY), but the net income story is more interesting than the synthesis suggests. The most recent quarter (March 2026) shows $260M NI at 1.9% margin — a sharp recovery from the $7M / $47M / $61M / $85M wasteland of the prior four quarters. That's a 4x sequential jump. Either this is the cyclical inflection bulls have been waiting for (beef cycle turning, chicken margins normalizing) or it's a one-quarter headfake driven by feed cost timing. The synthesis verdict of "fair value $19-22" against a $58.73 price implies a 67% downside — that's an extraordinary claim that requires extraordinary evidence, and I don't see it in the data.

The DCF-driven $21.94 fair value looks mechanically derived from depressed TTM earnings ($474M annual NI on a $20.9B market cap = 44x P/E). But this is precisely the wrong moment in a commodity cycle to capitalize trough earnings. Normalize to the 2021-2022 average ($3.1B NI) and you get a ~7x P/E at current price — cheap. Even half-normalized at $1.5B NI gets you ~14x, reasonable for a defensive dividend payer yielding 3.7%. EV/EBITDA of 11.2x and P/S of 0.35x are not "67% overvalued" metrics for a protein processor; they're middle-of-the-range. The Market Forces claim of "losing 8% market share annually" is not supported by anything in this file — Tyson's revenue is flat, not collapsing, and they remain the dominant US protein processor. That signal looks like narrative overreach.

Where I'd push back on my own bullishness: the balance sheet section is blanked out (no debt figure, no equity figure), which is a real gap given the synthesis flagged "high debt risk — interest coverage dangerously low." Tyson carried roughly $9B in long-term debt historically; on $1.44B operating income, coverage is thin but not catastrophic, and $2.16B operating cash flow / $1.18B FCF comfortably funds the ~$525M dividend. The insider activity is uninformative — small F-InKind tax withholdings, no open-market buying conviction signal either way. The fallen-angel narrative read is correct: there's no growth story here, and you're being paid 3.7% to wait through a cycle. The alt-protein "disruption" bear thesis has been wrong for five years and Beyond Meat is a $400M market cap rounding error; that risk is overstated.

I dissent from the synthesis verdict. A $19 fair value on TSN requires believing protein consumption is in secular decline AND that Tyson loses pricing power permanently AND that the Q1 2026 margin recovery reverses — three independent bearish assumptions stacked. The more defensible read: TSN is a cyclical trough play where normalized earnings power is $2.50-3.50 EPS, fair value sits in the $50-65 range at 18-20x mid-cycle, and you collect 3.7% while waiting. The Q1 2026 print at 1.9% margin is the first real evidence of inflection in two years and deserves weight the synthesis didn't give it. Risk is that Q2 reverts — if the next print drops back to sub-1% margins, the cycle call is wrong and $45-50 becomes the floor. Pre-flight's $4.50 normalized EPS at 13x = $58 actually triangulates close to spot price, which is the most honest read in the file.

GPT Critique
Second-opinion review · gpt-4o · generated 2026-06-07 17:20:02
Reviews the Opus findings above
Verdict I align with Opus that Tyson is not overvalued at $58.73, but my fair value range is more conservative at $50-55, reflecting ongoing margin uncertainties and potential debt risks.

In reviewing the raw data for Tyson Foods, Inc., a few aspects capture my attention. The revenue trend exhibits a stable but unimpressive growth trajectory, with recent quarters slightly up from $13.35B to $13.65B over seven quarters. However, the net income reveals a more volatile story, swinging from a low of $7M to a recent $260M, reflecting a recovery in net margin to 1.9%. This suggests potential cyclical recovery, but margins remain significantly below historical highs of 8-10%. The valuation metrics present a mixed picture: a P/E ratio of 45.8 suggests overvaluation, yet a P/S ratio of 0.35 and EV/EBITDA of 11.2 do not scream excessive pricing for a commodity processor. Cash flow remains robust, with operating cash flow at $2.16B and free cash flow at $1.18B, supporting its dividend yield of 3.7%.

Opus argues that the synthesis verdict of a $21.94 fair value is flawed due to capitalizing trough earnings, and I concur. The suggestion of a 67% downside from the current $58.73 price lacks substantiation in the presented data. Tyson's recent net income improvement suggests potential margin normalization, aligning with Opus's view that the $260M NI indicates an inflection point rather than a headfake. Opus rightly critiques the "losing 8% market share" narrative as unsupported since revenue remains flat. However, Opus's dismissal of the alt-protein threat as overstated requires caution; while Beyond Meat's current market cap is minor, the longer-term consumer trend towards plant-based proteins remains a potential risk.

Where I diverge from Opus is in the risk assessment of Tyson's balance sheet. The absence of clear debt figures in the data is troubling, as it obscures a full understanding of financial leverage. Historically, Tyson's debt has been substantial, and with thin interest coverage, this could pose a more significant risk than Opus suggests. Additionally, the insider transactions, while mostly neutral, do not provide confidence in internal bullishness, which should temper over-reliance on the positive Q1 margin print as a definitive cycle turn.

A careful skeptic would argue that both Opus and I might be underestimating the structural pressures Tyson faces from evolving consumer preferences and increasing regulatory burdens, which could erode long-term profitability. They might also question whether the recent margin recovery is sustainable in the face of potential macroeconomic headwinds and competitive pressures from alternative proteins and other market entrants.

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My Notes personal — only you see this
Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · fmp
v1.1.352 · d1100787 · 2026-06-26 11:39:30