Homepage
AGING Analysis Report
Jun 7, 2026
19 days ago · 96% complete · +8 refreshed

Option Care Health, Inc.

OPCH NASDAQ Categories PDF
Healthcare · Medical - Care Facilities
Bannockburn, IL 60015, United States IPO 1996 optioncarehealth.com Updated Jun 7, 2:06pm
Price
$20.51
Market Cap
$3.2B
Employees
8,000
Beta
0.65
Avg Volume
2,867,222
CEO
Luke Whitworth
Business Description

Option Care Health, Inc. offers home and alternate site infusion services in the United States. The company provides anti-infective therapies; home infusion services to treat heart failures; home parenteral nutrition and enteral nutrition support services for numerous acute and chronic conditions, such as stroke, cancer, and gastrointestinal diseases; immunoglobulin infusion therapies for the treatment of immune deficiencies; and treatments for chronic inflammatory disorders, including Crohn's disease, plaque psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis, rheumatoid arthritis, ulcerative colitis, and other chronic inflammatory disorders. It also offers treatments to manage the progression of neurological disorders, such as amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and duchenne muscular dystrophy; infusion therapies for bleeding disorders; therapies that women need to survive and thrive through high-risk pregnancies; and other infusion therapies to treat various conditions, including pain management, chemotherapy, and respiratory medications, as well as nursing services. Option Care Health, Inc. is headquartered in Bannockburn, Illinois.

Business History
Generated: Jun 7, 2026 2:08pm
Price Overview
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 2:06pm (19d ago)
$20.51
+0.44 (+2.19%)
Day Range
$20.21 – $20.83
52-Week Range
$18.01 – $36.80
50-Day MA
$24.51
200-Day MA
$28.97
Volume
2,681,761.00
Analyst Price Targets
Low $26.00
Consensus $32.38
High $39.00
(21 analysts)
Share Structure
Outstanding 157,027,504.00
Float 146,756,335.00
Free Float 93.5%
High free float — 93.5% of shares trade freely, ~6.5% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 2:11pm (19d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jun 3, 2026 7:33pm (23d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
API Direct from provider CALC Derived from statements
Industry comparison last run: Jun 7, 2026 2:08pm
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
API
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
15.58
Stock Price: $20.51
EPS (Diluted): 1.28
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
API
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
3.89
Stock Price: $20.51
Total Equity: $1.33B
Shares: 163,365,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
API
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
7.50
Market Cap: $3.22B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $232.62M
EBITDA: $408.60M
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
API
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$4.9B
Market Cap: $3.22B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $232.62M
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
API
Gross Profit / Revenue
18.1%
Gross Profit: $1.02B
Revenue: $5.65B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
API
Operating Income / Revenue
6.0%
Operating Income: $337.91M
Revenue: $5.65B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
API
Net Income / Revenue
3.7%
Net Income: $207.59M
Revenue: $5.65B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
API
Net Income / Total Equity
15.3%
Net Income: $207.59M
Total Equity: $1.33B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
API
NOPAT / Invested Capital
9.3%
Operating Income: $337.91M
Tax Rate: 26.6%
Equity: $1.33B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $232.62M
Zero debt — invested capital = equity minus cash (very efficient)
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
API
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
1.53
Current Assets: $1.26B
Current Liabilities: $829.35M
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
CALC
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.00
Short-Term Debt: $0.00
Long-Term Debt: $0.00
Total Debt: $0.00
Total Equity: $1.33B
Zero debt — this company carries no debt obligations. Strongest possible score.
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
CALC
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$34.58
Revenue: $5.65B
Shares: 163,365,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
CALC
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$8.12
Total Equity: $1.33B
Shares: 163,365,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
CALC
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$1.58
Operating CF: $258.45M
CapEx: $0.00
Shares: 163,365,000
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
API
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
0.0%
Last Dividend: N/A
Stock Price: $20.51
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
Dividends Paid / Net Income
—
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $207.59M
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Jun 7, 2026 2:08pm
Compares OPCH against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · three lenses
Three separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-06-07 14:37:51
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Starter position — scale in on weakness 6/10
Quality is real but degrading and the price only modestly discounts that — interesting, not a fat pitch.
The cruxWhether gross margin stabilizes near 18% or keeps bleeding — that single line determines if today's $20 is the EPV floor or a value trap waiting to re-rate lower.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from OPCH's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionShare Count Shrinking
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The three lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+0
Solid
edge √Σ 122 · risk √Σ 121 · conf 7/10

Option Care has the hallmarks of a well-run mature earner: revenue compounded from $3.44B (2021) to $5.65B (2025), FCF has run $183M–$329M annually with OCF/NI of 1.49x and accruals of -2.8% of assets — earnings are backed by cash. Balance sheet is sound (Altman Z 3.02, $233M liquid, net cash positive) and the company is a genuine net buyer of stock: diluted share count fell from 181.2M to 163.4M (-2.6% CAGR), with buyback/SBC of 611% meaning SBC is more than offset.

The concern is the profit trajectory. Gross margin has compressed every year since 2023: 22.8% → 20.3% → 18.1%, a ~470bp give-back in two years on a business model where GM is already thin. Operating margin peaked at 7.3% in 2023 and slipped to 6.0% in 2025, and net income actually declined from $267M (2023) to $208M (2025) despite revenue growing ~31% over that span. Revenue growth is masking that incremental dollars are coming in at materially lower profitability — classic signs of payer pricing pressure, drug-mix shift toward lower-margin therapies, or referral-channel concentration in home infusion.

Management behavior is constructive: real buybacks, modest SBC (0.7% of revenue), and recent insider activity skews to net buying ($4.5M bought vs $1.2M sold over 12 months), though the recent tape is dominated by routine awards. No accounting red flags (Beneish -2.36). This is a quality business, but margin erosion keeps it out of the top tier.

Strengths 4
m75
Genuine per-share value concentration
Diluted shares fell from 181.2M to 163.4M over four years (-2.6% CAGR) with buyback/SBC of 611% — SBC at just 0.7% of revenue is well-controlled and the float is shrinking meaningfully.
m70
Clean earnings backed by cash
OCF/NI 1.49x, accruals -2.8% of assets, Beneish M -2.36, Altman Z 3.02. FCF of $258M on $208M net income — reported earnings are real.
m55
Self-funding with adequate liquidity
$233M liquid cash, net cash positive, $258M annual FCF. Business does not need external capital to operate or grow.
m35
Insider net buying
10 buys ($4.5M) vs 2 sells ($1.2M) over 12 months — directional signal is positive, though most recent tape is routine awards/withholding.
Concerns 4
m80
Gross margin compression is severe and ongoing
GM has fallen 22.8% → 20.3% → 18.1% in two years (~470bp). On a thin-margin distribution model this signals real pricing/mix pressure, not noise.
m65
Net income going backwards despite revenue growth
Revenue grew from $4.30B (2023) to $5.65B (2025), +31%, yet net income fell from $267M to $208M (-22%). Incremental revenue is unprofitable at recent rates.
m50
FCF has also peaked and rolled over
FCF: $182M → $232M → $329M → $288M → $258M. The cash machine is degrading in lockstep with margins, not just a one-year blip.
m40
Moat is structurally narrow
Home infusion is a referral-driven, payer-reimbursed service business with limited switching cost defense against PBM/payer rate cuts — the margin trend is consistent with that vulnerability.
This is a quality-real-but-degrading business. The plumbing is clean — cash backs the earnings, the share count is genuinely shrinking, no accounting games, balance sheet is fine, insiders modestly net-buying. What bothers me is that I'm looking at a company whose gross margin has fallen ~470bp in 24 months and whose net income is lower in 2025 than 2023 despite a third more revenue. That's not a hiccup, that's the business model telling you something about pricing power in home infusion. I'd call it Solid, not Strong, because a great business doesn't lose 470bp of gross margin in two years while management talks about growth. The buyback discipline and earnings integrity keep it from being Mixed.
Verify before trusting this (6)
  • 10-K disclosure on therapy mix shift — is the GM compression from chronic vs acute mix, or from specific high-volume drugs (e.g., IG, biologics) with declining gross profit per unit?
  • Payer concentration and any recent contract repricing with major commercial payers or Medicare Advantage plans
  • Referral-source concentration (health systems, specialty pharmacies) and any disclosed loss of key referral relationships
  • Whether buybacks were funded by FCF or debt — check change in long-term debt vs buyback spend
  • Management commentary on whether 18% GM is the new floor or a transitional drag from acquired/onboarded volume
  • Any pending or recent CMS/Medicare reimbursement changes affecting home infusion
Valuation / Mispricing
+7
Modestly Cheap
edge √Σ 79 · risk √Σ 72 · conf 5/10
Price $20.51 vs deserved ~$25-30 (skeptical, not the $49 composite) — ~20-40% gap, modestly cheap but not deep value. attractive below $17.50

The e2e composite FV of $49 and signal-adjusted FV of $63 imply 200%+ upside, but those numbers fail the sanity check: they require the recent margin compression (~470bp gross margin decline in 24 months, net income lower in 2025 than 2023 on +33% revenue) to fully reverse. I don't underwrite that. The EPV floor of $19.79 — essentially today's price — is the more honest anchor: it says the market is paying for current earnings power and nothing more, which matches a fallen-angel setup where growth and margin recovery are priced at zero.

Deserved value, in my head, sits somewhere between the EPV floor and a haircut DCF — call it $25-$30 on a normalized basis, giving high-quality earnings (EQ score 3) and a shrinking share count credit, but penalizing the margin trend. Against $20.51 that's a ~20-40% gap — real, but not a fat pitch given the deteriorating fundamentals doing the discounting. Buybacks at this price are accretive, which is a tailwind that supports the 'modestly cheap' read rather than a 'deep value' call.

Cheap signals 3
m55
Trading at EPV floor
Price $20.51 vs EPV $19.79 — market is paying for steady-state earnings with no credit for growth, mix improvement, or aging-population tailwind. That's a real margin of safety on the downside.
m45
Accretive buyback at low multiple
Genuine share count shrinkage on high-quality earnings (EQ score 3) compounds per-share value at today's price; this is the cleanest case for the stock.
m35
Fallen-angel sentiment overhang
Bear case (perpetual mediocrity, saturation) is fully in the price; any stabilization of gross margin would re-rate the multiple.
Rich / priced-in 2
m60
Composite FV $49 fails sanity check
A 2.4x signal-adjusted FV against price would require margin recovery the trend explicitly contradicts (-470bp GM, NI lower on +33% revenue). I discount this input heavily.
m40
Deteriorating earnings power lowers deserved value
2025 net income below 2023 despite 33% more revenue means the 'E' in any P/E is eroding — deserved multiple compresses even if the business is structurally fine.
I'd call this modestly cheap, not a fat pitch. The $49-$63 FV prints are runaway — they ignore the margin bleed that is the entire reason the stock is here. The honest read is price ≈ EPV floor, deserved value maybe $25-30 on skeptical normalization, so ~20-40% gap. I'd want it below $17.50 to back up the truck given that earnings are still going the wrong way; at $20 I'd nibble but not size it.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Gross margin trajectory in next 1-2 quarters — stabilization vs further compression is the whole thesis
  • 2026 guidance on revenue growth and margin recovery cadence
  • Any disclosure on therapy mix shift (Stelara biosimilar, GLP-1s) driving the GM decline
  • Buyback pace at current price levels
  • Payer concentration / reimbursement pressure commentary on call
General Sentiment
-72
Headwind
tail √Σ 32 · head √Σ 104 · conf 7/10

The dominant pressure on OPCH is narrative, not macro. The story is a fallen-angel: market has decided management cannot grow the top line, and the April 30 Q1 revenue miss (just 1.3% YoY) crystallized that view with a 30% gap-down that still defines the tape for this name. Intensity is strong, durability is fragile, and there is no cult bid to defend the stock - meaning any further disappointment gets sold immediately while good news gets faded. Analyst tone is the clearest divergence: 12 Buys, 2 Holds, target $31.22 vs $22.08 price - a 41% implied upside that the market is openly ignoring. That gap is itself a headwind signal: when sell-side is bullish and the tape will not follow, it means flows and sentiment are the binding constraint, not valuation. Macro is a minor factor here. Beta 0.65 and a defensive home-infusion business mean the neutral-to-slightly-stressed tape (VIX 17, 10y 4.55%) lands softly on OPCH; this is not a name being dragged down by the index. The pressure is idiosyncratic and story-driven, which is why it persists even on quiet market days.

Tailwinds 2
m25
Low beta cushions a wobbly tape
Beta 0.65 and defensive healthcare exposure mean the neutral-to-stressed macro regime (VIX 17, 10y 4.55%) does not meaningfully amplify the selling - the headwind here is name-specific, not index-driven.
m20
Positive long-run momentum trace
14.6% CAGR and a cleaned-up balance sheet (D/E to 0) give a small base of mechanical buyers (quality/quant screens) even while the narrative is sour.
Headwinds 3
m70
Fallen-angel narrative, fragile and unloved
Strong-intensity bear story (management cannot grow) with low cult coefficient means no natural buyers step in on weakness - the stock drifts until the narrative breaks.
m65
Q1 revenue miss still defines the tape
The April 30 -30% gap on 1.3% revenue growth is recent and unhealed; it is the anchor every print will be measured against and keeps fast money away.
m40
Analyst-tape divergence
12 Buys and a $31 target vs $22 price with only 1 trivial revision this month - sell-side is stale-bullish and the market is not following, a classic sign sentiment is the binding constraint.
Net pressure leans negative, but not catastrophically. This is a low-beta defensive name being held down by a specific, fragile narrative - the market has decided OPCH cannot grow, and the April revenue miss made that view consensus. Macro is a non-event here; the headwind is idiosyncratic. The sell-side/tape divergence tells me sentiment, not fundamentals, is the active force, and until a print breaks the no-growth story the stock keeps trading like a value trap. Headwind, with the understanding that the same fragility that holds it down can flip fast on one good quarter.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Next quarterly print - any revenue reacceleration above 3% could crack the fallen-angel story
  • Analyst revisions trend - if Buys start cutting to Holds, the divergence resolves the wrong way
  • Sector rotation into defensive healthcare on any risk-off escalation
  • Any M&A chatter or strategic review - the classic fallen-angel re-rating catalyst
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
Please log in to view trade setups
The Augustus trade-setup read is a members feature.
Log in
Three lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), and General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Deep Analysis
Last run: Jun 7, 2026 2:10:51 pm

Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.

0 Company Classification — What type of company is this?
1 Industry Landscape — Where is the industry headed?
2 Company Momentum — Where is this company trending?
3 Forward Projection — 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a DCF Valuation — Present value of future cash flows
4b Earnings Power Value — Floor value — worth with zero growth
4c Anchored PE — Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
4d Reverse DCF — What growth is the market pricing in?
4e Revenue-Based DCF — For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4f Anchored P/S — Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4g Scenario Analysis — Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4h Dividend Discount Model — For dividend/income stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4i Book Value Analysis — For deep value / turnaround stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4j Insider Activity — Are insiders buying or selling?
4f Cash Flow Quality — How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g Debt Maturity Risk — Can it handle its debt?
4h Macro Environment — Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i Sector Intelligence — How does this company compare within its sector?
4j Revenue Confidence — How reliable is the growth projection?
4k Sensitivity Analysis — How fragile is the fair value estimate?
4l Sector Demand Cycle — Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5 AI Investigation — Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b Thesis Evaluation — What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
6 Valuation Synthesis — Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 3, 2026 7:33pm (23d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $3.4B $3.9B $4.3B $5.0B $5.6B
Cost of Revenue $2.7B $3.1B $3.3B $4.0B $4.6B
Gross Profit $779.6M $866.9M $981.2M $1.0B $1.0B
Operating Expenses $588.8M $626.7M $666.6M $691.2M $682.5M
Operating Income $190.8M $240.2M $314.6M $321.8M $337.9M
Net Income $139.9M $150.6M $267.1M $211.8M $207.6M
EBITDA $252.3M $325.0M $472.2M $396.1M $408.6M
EPS $0.78 $0.83 $1.49 $1.23 $1.28
EPS (Diluted) — — — — —
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 3, 2026 7:27pm (23d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $119.4M $294.2M $343.8M $412.6M $232.6M
Total Current Assets $710.3M $994.3M $1.1B $1.3B $1.3B
Total Assets $2.9B $3.2B $3.3B $3.4B $3.5B
Current Liabilities $459.7M $565.4M $618.3M $780.1M $829.3M
Long-Term Debt $1.1B $1.1B $1.1B $1.1B $0
Total Liabilities $1.7B $1.8B $1.9B $2.0B $2.1B
Total Equity $1.2B $1.4B $1.4B $1.4B $1.3B
Retained Earnings $39.9M $190.4M $457.5M $669.3M $0
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 3, 2026 7:33pm (23d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $208.6M $267.5M $371.3M $323.4M $258.4M
Capital Expenditure -$25.6M -$35.4M -$41.9M -$35.6M $0
Free Cash Flow $182.9M $232.2M $329.4M $287.8M $258.4M
Acquisitions (net) -$85.9M -$87.4M -$12.5M $0 -$117.2M
Debt Repayment — — — — —
Dividends Paid — — — — —
Stock Buybacks $-32,000 $0 -$250.3M -$252.7M -$310.0M
Net Change in Cash $20.2M $174.8M $49.7M $68.7M -$179.9M
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 2:06pm (19d ago)
Metric 2027 2028 2029 2030
Revenue $6.1B
$6.1B – $6.2B
 $6.7B
$6.7B – $6.7B
 $7.2B
$7.1B – $7.3B
 $7.7B
$7.6B – $7.8B
EBITDA $511.6M
$506.6M – $516.6M
 $555.9M
$555.9M – $555.9M
 $601.2M
$595.7M – $607.9M
 $642.5M
$636.6M – $649.6M
Net Income $338.0M
$326.4M – $349.5M
 $378.4M
$356.3M – $400.5M
 $406.8M
$401.9M – $412.6M
 $450.9M
$445.5M – $457.3M
EPS — — — —
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 3, 2026 7:33pm (23d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +14.7% +9.1% +16.2% +13.0%
Gross Profit Growth +11.2% +13.2% +3.2% +0.7%
Operating Income Growth +25.9% +31.0% +2.3% +5.0%
Net Income Growth +7.6% +77.4% -20.7% -2.0%
EBITDA Growth +28.8% +45.3% -16.1% +3.1%
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 2:10pm (19d ago)
Type codes PPurchase SSale AAward / grant MOption exercise FIn-kind (tax) CConversion GGift DReturn to issuer
All SEC Form 4 codes
Open market
P Purchase
Open-market or private purchase of shares.
S Sale
Open-market or private sale of shares.
Compensation (Rule 16b-3)
A Award / grant
Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
D Return to issuer
Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
F In-kind (tax)
Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
I Discretionary
Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
M Option exercise
Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
Derivatives
C Conversion
Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
E Short expiration
Expiration of a short derivative position.
H Long expiration
Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
O OTM exercise
Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
X ITM exercise
Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
Other exempt
G Gift
Bona fide gift of securities.
L Small acquisition
Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
W Inheritance
Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
Z Voting trust
Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
Other
J Other
Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
K Equity swap
Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
U Tender / buyout
Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.

Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.

Date Insider Type Shares Price Value
2026-05-20 Bierbower Elizabeth D A-Award 8,997.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-20 Deckmann Natasha A-Award 844.00 $22.23 $18,762
2026-05-20 Deckmann Natasha A-Award 8,997.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-20 KRAEMER HARRY M JANSEN JR A-Award 12,079.00 $22.23 $268,516
2026-05-20 KRAEMER HARRY M JANSEN JR A-Award 8,997.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-20 Pate R Carter A-Award 8,997.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-20 SULLIVAN TIMOTHY P A-Award 4,836.00 $22.23 $107,504
2026-05-20 SULLIVAN TIMOTHY P A-Award 8,997.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-20 Bodem Barbara W. A-Award 8,997.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-20 Wright Norman L. A-Award 8,997.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-20 BRANDT ERIC A-Award 2,643.00 $22.23 $58,754
2026-05-20 BRANDT ERIC A-Award 8,997.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-19 Smyser Collin M-Exempt 812.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-19 Smyser Collin F-InKind 360.00 $20.86 $7,510
2026-05-19 Smyser Collin M-Exempt 812.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-07 SULLIVAN TIMOTHY P P-Purchase 24,154.00 $20.69 $499,671
2026-05-04 KRAEMER HARRY M JANSEN JR P-Purchase 36,610.00 $21.41 $783,773
2026-05-04 Sethna Meenal P-Purchase 16,225.00 $20.16 $327,075
2026-05-04 RADEMACHER JOHN CHARLES P-Purchase 12,500.00 $21.18 $264,706
2026-04-22 Adewunmi Femi F-InKind 1,396.00 $28.38 $39,618
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for OPCH — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Delvantic AI Findings
Independent analyst synthesis · Delvantic - Cairn AI · generated 2026-06-07 14:11:30
Reviews the pipeline's own verdicts
Verdict Modestly undervalued, not the 3x-bagger the synthesis claims — fair value $22–$26 standalone with takeout optionality to $30; starter position justified but size for a value/M&A trade, not a growth re-rating.

Looking at the raw numbers first: revenue grew from $3.44B (2021) to $5.65B (2025) — a 13% CAGR that's still intact, with the trailing four quarters at ~$5.68B. But net income tells a less flattering story: $267M in 2023, $212M in 2024, $208M in 2025. Margins compressed from 6.2% net in 2023 to 3.7% TTM. Gross margin collapsed from ~22.8% to 18.1%. This is the classic "growing into a thinner business" pattern — every incremental dollar of revenue is generating fewer cents of profit. The Q1 2026 print ($1.35B rev, 3.4% margin) shows no inflection. That said, FCF of $258M on a $3.22B market cap is a real 8% yield, and EV/EBITDA of 7.5x with ROIC of 9.3% isn't distressed-pricing — it's mature-business pricing.

Where I disagree with the prior models: the synthesis "fair value $49–$62" against a $20.51 price implying 200%+ upside is preposterous as stated and the synthesis itself flags the methods disagree. A DCF that anchors to 2023's $267M peak earnings and assumes mean reversion to ~22% gross margins is doing most of the lifting. If you instead anchor to TTM economics ($208M NI, $258M FCF, no margin recovery), a 12–14x P/E on a no-growth-in-earnings business gets you $16–$19, i.e., the stock is roughly fairly priced or modestly cheap, not 3x undervalued. The "fallen angel" narrative framing is directionally right but the magnitude is fantasy. Market Forces correctly flags payor vertical integration (Optum/CVS/Express Scripts increasingly own home infusion assets) as the existential risk — that's the real bear case, not generic "execution."

The contrarian-to-the-contrarians argument: gross margin compression from 22.8% → 18.1% over three years while revenue grew 31% is almost certainly mix shift toward lower-margin chronic therapies and reimbursement step-downs on legacy drugs (Stelara biosimilar exposure, IVIG pricing), not operational dysfunction. That's not cyclical and won't snap back. The bull case requires you to believe either (a) the mix stabilizes and incremental revenue carries normal drop-through, or (b) OPCH gets acquired — and a strategic (UNH, CVS) paying 8–10x EBITDA gets you to $28–$33. The insider activity is uninformative — all A-Awards dated the same day are routine equity comp grants, not buying conviction. Flagging "Net Insider Buying" off that is a model error.

Data quality concerns: the balance sheet tile is missing total debt and total equity, which matters because OPCH carried ~$1.1B in net debt historically and ev_to_ebitda of 7.5x depends on that. If leverage has crept up funding the HC Pharma acquisition, the equity story is riskier than the multiples suggest. The "2026-03-31" quarterly label is also suspicious — likely a fiscal labeling artifact, but worth verifying. Sector "in contraction" callout conflicts with the bull thesis on aging-demographic tailwinds; both can't be right and I'd bet sector growth is fine but unit economics are deteriorating industry-wide as payors squeeze.

Net: I dissent from the synthesis $62 fair value. I dissent from "Disconnected from Fundamentals" — the market is pricing this correctly as a business whose earnings power peaked in 2023 and where the payor counterparty is becoming the competitor. But I also dissent from outright bearishness: 8% FCF yield, 15.6x P/E, 7.5x EV/EBITDA, and a real M&A floor make this a reasonable value name, not a value trap, provided leverage isn't a surprise. Fair value $22–$26 on standalone fundamentals, with optionality to $30+ on strategic takeout. At $20.51 you're paid to wait but you're not getting a fat margin of safety — and the margin trajectory needs to stabilize within 2 quarters or the thesis erodes further.

GPT Critique
Second-opinion review · gpt-4o · generated 2026-06-07 14:11:35
Reviews the Opus findings above
Verdict Agree with Opus — modestly undervalued at $20.51, fair value $22–$26; margin stabilization critical for upside beyond strategic takeout potential.

Option Care Health, Inc. (OPCH) presents an intriguing case of robust revenue growth against a backdrop of declining profitability. The company has seen its revenue climb from $3.44 billion in 2021 to $5.65 billion in 2025, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 13%. This growth trajectory is commendable, but the concurrent decline in net income from $267 million in 2023 to $208 million in 2025 signals a concerning trend of margin compression. The gross margin has notably dropped from 22.8% to 18.1%, reflecting possible issues in the company's pricing power or cost management as it scales. The company's free cash flow yield of 8% and an EV/EBITDA ratio of 7.5x suggest a mature business with stable cash generation, yet the market's skepticism is evident in its current valuation, which seems to reflect concerns of ongoing margin compression and competitive pressures.

I align with Opus's skepticism regarding the synthesis's valuation of $49 to $62, which appears overly optimistic. I agree with Opus that such a valuation likely relies on assumptions of margin recovery that are not currently supported by the available data. The synthesis's fair value estimate seems to ignore the persistent margin pressures and assumes a return to peak earnings conditions, which do not align with the recent financial trajectory. I concur with Opus's more conservative valuation of $22 to $26, reflecting a more realistic appraisal of OPCH's current financial health and market conditions. This range accounts for the company's stable cash flow and potential strategic acquisition appeal, without overestimating the likelihood of a significant turnaround in profitability.

However, I diverge slightly from Opus on the potential impact of margin compression being solely attributed to mix shift and reimbursement issues. While these factors certainly contribute, the consistency of revenue growth suggests that operational efficiencies or strategic shifts could eventually stabilize margins. Thus, while I agree with Opus that the payor vertical integration presents a significant risk, I am slightly more optimistic about the potential for margin stabilization as the company continues to adapt its business model.

A careful skeptic might argue that both Opus and I are underappreciating the potential for OPCH to leverage its revenue growth into improved profitability through operational efficiencies or strategic partnerships. They might also highlight that the sector's contraction narrative could be overblown given the demographic tailwinds and the shift towards home care, which could eventually counteract the current margin pressures.

Community AI Feedback
No community reviews yet for OPCH. Be the first — hit How to Contribute, have any AI review this page, and paste its take back here.
My Notes personal — only you see this
Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · fmp
v1.1.352 · d1100787 · 2026-06-26 11:39:30