Business Description
CEMEX, S.A.B. de C.V., together with its subsidiaries, produces, markets, distributes, and sells cement, ready-mix concrete, aggregates, urbanization solutions, and other construction materials worldwide. The company also offers various complementary construction products, including asphalt products; concrete blocks; roof tiles; architectural products; concrete pipes for storm and sanitary sewers applications; and other precast products, such as rail products, concrete floors, box culverts, bridges, drainage basins, barriers, and parking curbs. In addition, it provides building solutions for housing solutions, pavement solutions, and green building services; cement trade maritime services; and information technology solutions. The company operates approximately 2,000 retail stores. CEMEX, S.A.B. de C.V. was founded in 1906 and is headquartered in San Pedro Garza García, Mexico.
Business History
Generated: Jun 7, 2026 5:22pmPrice Overview
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:20pm (19d ago)Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 6.60
Total Equity: $13.31B
Shares: 144,892,900
Total Debt: $6.78B
Cash: $1.82B
EBITDA: $2.57B
Total Debt: $6.78B
Cash: $1.82B
Revenue: $16.13B
Revenue: $16.13B
Revenue: $16.13B
Total Equity: $13.31B
Tax Rate: 48.8%
Equity: $13.31B
Total Debt: $6.78B
Cash: $1.82B
Current Liabilities: $7.38B
Long-Term Debt: $5.33B
Total Debt: $6.78B
Total Equity: $13.31B
Shares: 144,892,900
Shares: 144,892,900
CapEx: -$1.05B
Shares: 144,892,900
Stock Price: $12.47
Net Income: $960.00M
Industry Benchmarks
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · three lenses
CEMEX is a classic asset-heavy cyclical: revenue stuck in a ~$14.4B→$16.1B band over five years, gross margin oscillating in a tight 30.5–33.7% range, and operating margin pinned near 9–12%. There is no real growth story in the numbers — 2025 revenue of $16.13B is essentially flat vs. 2023's $16.40B — but the business does throw off real cash, with FCF averaging ~$930M/yr and 2025 OCF/NI of 4.08x plus accruals at -4.1% of assets, both pointing to high earnings integrity. Net income of $960M in 2025 looks clean.
The balance sheet is the constraint. Net debt of ~$5.0B against $1.82B liquid cash and an Altman Z of 1.74 sits in the distress band — typical for cement, but it means the business is self-funding, not fortress. The -44.2% diluted-share 'CAGR' from 1.47B to 144.9M almost certainly reflects an ADR ratio change or share consolidation rather than a true buyback (SBC is ~0% and buyback/SBC at 98.2% on a near-zero base is not economically meaningful at that magnitude); per-share value concentration is real but nowhere near what the headline implies — this needs verification.
Management behavior looks ordinary: a wave of routine equity awards on 2026-05-01 and a single small insider sale of $425K. No open-market insider buying signals conviction, but nothing alarming either. Net: a durable but unexciting franchise — clean accounting, decent cash conversion, leveraged balance sheet, no growth.
Verify before trusting this (6)
- Whether the 1.47B → 144.9M diluted share drop in 2025 is a real buyback, an ADR ratio change, or a share consolidation — this materially changes the per-share story.
- Debt maturity schedule and refinancing wall — with ~$5B net debt and Z-score in distress band, near-term maturities matter.
- Geographic mix and exposure to Mexico/US/Europe cement demand cycles given flat top-line.
- Capex intensity vs. maintenance capex — to gauge whether reported FCF understates true owner earnings or relies on under-investment.
- Currency translation effects on USD-reported revenue given Mexican parent and global operations.
- Status of asset divestiture program (CEMEX has been a serial seller) and any pension/environmental liabilities not captured in net debt.
CEMEX at $12.98 / ~$18.8B market cap is a cash-generative but leveraged cement major. The e2e synthesis flags 'disconnected from fundamentals,' which I read as the kind of runaway DCF that goes vertical on any modest assumption — I'm not anchoring on it. Anchoring instead on what a stagnant-top-line, leveraged, cyclical cement business deserves: roughly 7-9x EV/EBITDA on trough-ish cycle earnings, which lands deserved equity value in the low-to-mid teens per share. Against $12.98, that's a fair-to-modestly-cheap setup, not a deep discount.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Net debt and leverage ratio trajectory in latest 10-Q/20-F — is deleveraging actually continuing?
- Mexico and US volume/pricing guidance — any inflection vs flat top line?
- FX impact on reported EBITDA (MXN, EM currencies) — how much of margin is currency vs operational?
- Capex guidance vs maintenance capex — true FCF conversion
- Any one-time gains/divestitures inflating recent earnings
CX sits in a neutral tape (VIX 17, S&P only 1.8% off highs) with a low beta of 0.83, so the macro pressure on the name is muted rather than acute. The active story is a turnaround-bet with moderate intensity and moderate durability - not a cult name, not a momentum darling, just a slowly rehabilitating cyclical with real cash flow and a de-levered balance sheet. That archetype gets neither a euphoric bid nor a sentiment dump in a sideways tape; it drifts on its own news. The genuine headwind is rates: 10y at 4.48% pressures cyclical, capital-intensive, EM-exposed construction materials, and a strong dollar narrative weighs on Mexico-listed ADRs. But CX's low beta and commodity-essential exposure blunt this versus a high-beta story stock. Offsetting that, analyst tone is constructively positive - 12 Buys vs 1 Sell, target $13.73 (11% above spot), and a fresh upward revision to $14 this month - which mildly diverges in CX's favor against an otherwise cautious materials backdrop. Net pressure is roughly balanced with a faint tailwind from analyst flow and a faint headwind from rates/EM macro.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Whether the upward target revisions broaden beyond a single analyst
- Mexico infra spending headlines and any USMCA/tariff noise that could hit narrative
- Cement volume and pricing prints from peers (Holcim, Heidelberg) as a sentiment tell
- Peso/USD trajectory - a sharp MXN move would amplify or mute the macro headwind
Deep Analysis
Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:26pm (19d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $14.4B | $14.7B | $16.4B | $16.1B | $16.1B |
| Cost of Revenue | $9.7B | $10.2B | $10.9B | $10.7B | $10.8B |
| Gross Profit | $4.6B | $4.5B | $5.5B | $5.4B | $5.3B |
| Operating Expenses | $3.0B | $3.1B | $3.6B | $3.6B | $3.5B |
| Operating Income | $1.6B | $1.4B | $1.9B | $1.8B | $1.8B |
| Net Income | $753.0M | $858.0M | $182.0M | $939.0M | $960.0M |
| EBITDA | $2.7B | $2.2B | $3.1B | $2.8B | $2.6B |
| EPS | $0.51 | $0.59 | $0.12 | $0.58 | $6.60 |
| EPS (Diluted) | — | — | — | — | — |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:22pm (19d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $613.0M | $495.0M | $624.0M | $864.0M | $1.8B |
| Total Current Assets | $4.2B | $4.5B | $5.0B | $5.0B | $6.1B |
| Total Assets | $27.7B | $27.5B | $28.4B | $27.3B | $29.0B |
| Current Liabilities | $5.4B | $5.5B | $6.8B | $6.1B | $7.4B |
| Long-Term Debt | $7.3B | $6.9B | $6.2B | $5.3B | $5.3B |
| Total Liabilities | $17.4B | $16.6B | $16.3B | $14.8B | $15.3B |
| Total Equity | $9.8B | $10.5B | $11.8B | $12.2B | $13.3B |
| Retained Earnings | $3.4B | $4.2B | $4.4B | $5.2B | $6.1B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:26pm (19d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $1.8B | $1.4B | $2.2B | $1.9B | $2.1B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$773.1M | -$755.0M | -$865.0M | -$1.3B | -$1.1B |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.1B | $613.0M | $1.4B | $598.0M | $1.0B |
| Acquisitions (net) | -$323.8M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $1.1B |
| Debt Repayment | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividends Paid | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stock Buybacks | $0 | -$111.0M | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Net Change in Cash | -$337.1M | -$118.0M | $129.0M | $240.0M | $958.5M |
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:20pm (19d ago)| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue |
$18.1B $17.6B – $18.5B
|
$18.8B $18.3B – $19.1B
|
$19.9B $19.3B – $20.3B
|
$19.5B $19.0B – $19.9B
|
| EBITDA |
$3.1B $3.0B – $3.2B
|
$3.2B $3.1B – $3.3B
|
$3.4B $3.3B – $3.5B
|
$3.3B $3.3B – $3.4B
|
| Net Income |
$133.2M $122.5M – $145.4M
|
$156.2M $150.8M – $160.4M
|
$153.6M $148.3M – $157.7M
|
$0 |
| EPS | — | — | — | — |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:26pm (19d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +2.3% | +11.5% | -2.1% | +0.4% |
| Gross Profit Growth | -3.3% | +23.4% | -2.3% | -1.8% |
| Operating Income Growth | -16.9% | +43.0% | -6.3% | -1.9% |
| Net Income Growth | +13.9% | -78.8% | +415.9% | +2.2% |
| EBITDA Growth | -18.9% | +41.2% | -8.5% | -8.4% |
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:26pm (19d ago)All SEC Form 4 codes
- P Purchase
- Open-market or private purchase of shares.
- S Sale
- Open-market or private sale of shares.
- A Award / grant
- Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
- D Return to issuer
- Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
- F In-kind (tax)
- Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
- I Discretionary
- Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
- M Option exercise
- Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
- C Conversion
- Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
- E Short expiration
- Expiration of a short derivative position.
- H Long expiration
- Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
- O OTM exercise
- Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
- X ITM exercise
- Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
- G Gift
- Bona fide gift of securities.
- L Small acquisition
- Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
- W Inheritance
- Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
- Z Voting trust
- Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
- J Other
- Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
- K Equity swap
- Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
- U Tender / buyout
- Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.
Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | Naya Barba Ricardo | A-Award | 73,833.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Naya Barba Ricardo | F-InKind | 32,178.00 | $12.25 | $394,181 |
| 2026-06-15 | Menendez Sergio Mauricio | A-Award | 74,641.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Menendez Sergio Mauricio | F-InKind | 33,326.00 | $12.25 | $408,244 |
| 2026-06-15 | Doehner Cobian Mauricio | A-Award | 36,197.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Doehner Cobian Mauricio | F-InKind | 16,024.00 | $12.25 | $196,294 |
| 2026-06-15 | Echavez Hernandez Luis | A-Award | 81,733.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Echavez Hernandez Luis | F-InKind | 35,694.00 | $12.25 | $437,252 |
| 2026-06-15 | Cabrera Guerra Jose Antonio | A-Award | 12,619.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Cabrera Guerra Jose Antonio | F-InKind | 5,365.00 | $12.25 | $65,721 |
| 2026-06-15 | Elizondo de la Garza Oscar Balmore | A-Award | 17,060.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Elizondo de la Garza Oscar Balmore | F-InKind | 7,687.00 | $12.25 | $94,166 |
| 2026-06-15 | Rodriguez Louisa | A-Award | 31,981.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Rodriguez Louisa | F-InKind | 17,887.00 | $12.25 | $219,116 |
| 2026-06-15 | Ramirez Cantu Alejandro Alberto | A-Award | 30,489.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Ramirez Cantu Alejandro Alberto | F-InKind | 15,884.00 | $12.25 | $194,579 |
| 2026-06-15 | Gonzalez Herrera Jesus Vicente | A-Award | 70,840.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Gonzalez Herrera Jesus Vicente | F-InKind | 35,115.00 | $12.25 | $430,159 |
| 2026-06-12 | Gonzalez Flores Jose Antonio | A-Award | 75,542.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Gonzalez Flores Jose Antonio | F-InKind | 32,922.00 | $12.25 | $403,295 |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:20pm (19d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-11 | $0.02 | 2026-02-27 | 2026-03-11 | 2026-03-19 |
| 2025-12-15 | $0.02 | 2025-12-05 | 2025-12-15 | 2025-12-23 |
| 2025-09-17 | $0.02 | 2025-09-05 | 2025-09-17 | 2025-09-25 |
| 2025-06-17 | $0.02 | 2025-06-06 | 2025-06-17 | 2025-06-26 |
| 2025-03-10 | $0.02 | 2025-02-28 | 2025-03-10 | 2025-03-18 |
| 2024-12-10 | $0.02 | 2024-11-29 | 2024-12-10 | 2024-12-18 |
| 2024-09-13 | $0.02 | 2024-09-03 | 2024-09-13 | 2024-09-24 |
| 2024-06-17 | $0.02 | 2024-06-07 | 2024-06-17 | 2024-06-26 |
| 2019-12-13 | $0.05 | 2019-06-06 | 2019-12-16 | 2019-12-18 |
| 2019-06-17 | $0.05 | 2019-06-04 | 2019-06-14 | 2019-06-18 |
| 2008-05-06 | $0.90 | |||
| 2007-05-08 | $0.83 | |||
| 2006-05-05 | $1.33 | 2006-05-09 | 2006-06-07 | |
| 2005-05-06 | $1.20 | 2005-05-10 | 2005-06-09 | |
| 2004-05-07 | $1.02 | 2004-05-11 | 2004-06-11 | |
| 2003-05-07 | $1.04 | 2003-05-09 | 2003-06-11 | |
| 2002-05-03 | $1.02 | 2002-05-07 | 2002-06-12 | |
| 2001-05-07 | $0.97 | 2001-05-09 | 2001-06-08 | |
| 2000-05-04 | $0.79 | 2000-05-08 | 2000-06-09 |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Delvantic AI Findings
Looking at the raw quarterly trajectory first: revenue is essentially flat-to-down ($4.36B Q2'24 → $4.02B Q1'26, roughly -8% over seven quarters), and the earnings line is wildly noisy — a $734M Q1'25 print sandwiched between a $48M Q4'24 and a -$356M Q4'25. That Q4'25 loss is critical: it means full-year 2025 NI of $960M was carried almost entirely by one quarter (Q1'25 = 76% of the year). Strip Q1'25 and CEMEX earned roughly $226M across the other three quarters of 2025 on $12.5B of revenue — a ~1.8% margin. That is the real run-rate, and it makes the headline TTM P/E of 41.8 (not 2.0x as the synthesis claims — somebody mixed up Mexican peso vs. ADR share-equivalents) far more defensible as the relevant number. The synthesis's "P/E of 2.0x" is just wrong; the canonical tag says 41.8 and Q1'26's $228M NI annualized against an $18.8B cap gives ~20x forward, not 2x.
On the balance sheet, the file is unhelpful — total debt and equity are blank, which for CEMEX is the entire ballgame. This is a company whose investability has historically lived and died on net debt/EBITDA. Operating CF of $2.06B and FCF of $1.01B against an $18.8B cap is a ~5.4% FCF yield, decent but not screamingly cheap for a cyclical with negative revenue CAGR (-0.8%) and FCF CAGR of -13.7%. The 7.7% dividend yield is eye-catching but only sustainable if FCF holds; one bad cycle quarter like Q4'25 and the payout ratio breaks. The 0.83 current ratio is a yellow flag I'd want explained before sizing anything.
Where I part ways with the prior models: the synthesis's "Disconnected from Fundamentals" verdict is built on a phantom 2.0x P/E and an "accrual ratio of 3.05x" that I can't reconcile with OCF of $2.06B vs. NI of $960M (that ratio implies accruals are *negative*, i.e., cash earnings exceed reported earnings — the opposite of low quality). The Secondary Signals correctly flag "Strong Cash Flow Quality," which directly contradicts the synthesis. Meanwhile the Market Forces module calls it a "value trap where financial engineering masquerades as operational excellence" — but I see no buyback data in the file to support the "buyback-driven EPS growth" claim. These models are arguing with ghosts. The pre-flight and narrative layers are more honest: this is a cyclical deep-value name where the entire thesis is whether margins normalize at 33% gross / 11% operating and whether the leverage trajectory keeps improving. The 10 insider awards on 2026-05-01 are routine comp grants, not signal.
The contrarian case I'd actually make: nearshoring/Mexico infra tailwinds are now consensus, cement is a structurally overcapacity global business, and CEMEX's revenue has gone nowhere in two years despite the strongest Mexican construction backdrop in a decade. If you can't grow the top line *now*, when do you? Q1'26 revenue of $4.02B is the lowest of the eight quarters shown. The Q4'25 loss likely includes impairments or FX — but that's exactly the point with CEMEX: every other year there's a "one-time" charge that permanently reduces book equity. P/B of 0.125 looks absurdly cheap until you realize the market has priced this name below book for a decade for reasons (Mexican peso translation risk, recurring writedowns, perpetual refi overhang). Macro Headwinds flag is real: rates staying higher hits both construction demand and CEMEX's own interest expense on whatever the debt stack actually is.
Net: I dissent from the synthesis's "disconnected" framing — it's based on numbers I can't verify and a thesis the cash flow data contradicts. I agree with the narrative layer's "anchored turnaround-bet" read. Fair value on a normalized $1.0–1.2B FCF and 8–10x multiple is $9–14B, i.e., $6–10 per ADR; the current $12.98 already prices in cyclical normalization plus nearshoring optionality. The 7.7% dividend is the only thing keeping me from calling it expensive — and
GPT Critique
In evaluating the raw data for CEMEX, S.A.B. de C.V., several critical points emerge. Revenue over the last few quarters has seen a minor decline, from $4.36 billion in Q2 2024 to $4.02 billion in Q1 2026, indicating a slight downward trend. The net income figures are highly volatile, with significant swings such as the $734 million in Q1 2025 compared to a loss of $356 million in Q4 2025. This volatility suggests underlying instability in operational performance or one-off events impacting profitability. The annual data shows a modest revenue increase from $14.38 billion in 2021 to $16.13 billion in 2025, but the net income volatility continues, highlighting potential concerns about the sustainability of the profit levels. CEMEX's strong operating cash flow of $2.06 billion and free cash flow of $1.01 billion are positive indicators, although the capital expenditure remains substantial at $1.05 billion.
Opus argues that CEMEX is mispriced due to the incorrect P/E ratio calculation in the synthesis, which cited a P/E of 2.0x instead of the more accurate 41.8x. I agree with Opus here; the miscalculation significantly distorts the valuation perspective. Furthermore, Opus highlights the absence of critical balance sheet data, particularly the total debt, which is essential for assessing CEMEX's financial health given its history with debt. I concur with the emphasis on the necessity of this data to evaluate CEMEX's risk fully. However, I diverge from Opus's dismissal of the synthesis's "Disconnected from Fundamentals" verdict. Given the volatile earnings and negative free cash flow CAGR, I find validity in questioning the sustainability of current valuations, even if the synthesis's rationale was flawed.
Opus disputes the synthesis's assertion of poor cash flow quality, supported by strong operating cash flow numbers, arguing instead for a narrative of a deep-value cyclical turnaround. While I agree that cash flow remains strong, the narrative of a "turnaround" is less convincing without evidence of consistent revenue growth, especially given the recent revenue stagnation amidst favorable macro conditions. Opus's mention of insider awards as routine compensation rather than signaling is reasonable, but it does not alleviate concerns regarding the company's strategic direction and market positioning.
A careful skeptic might argue that both Opus and my analyses overlook the potential impact of external economic factors, such as currency volatility and global cement overcapacity, which could exacerbate CEMEX's challenges regardless of internal operational improvements. Additionally, the focus on traditional financial metrics might miss emerging risks such as regulatory changes or shifts in global construction demand patterns.