Skip to main content
Homepage
AGING Analysis Report
Sep 2, 2026
18 days ago · 100% complete
For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page

What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.

Our current read (analysis of 2026-09-20): Designation Low · Gem Score -27 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 38 · Value -70 · Sentiment -82 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $80.78 vs $123.13 at analysis

Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable reference-name attribute you can cite):

  • profile-header / price-overview — company profile, live quote, market cap
  • extended-analysisthe core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memo
  • future-predictions — our forward price-band predictions
  • market-narrative / ai-findings / gpt-critique — narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)
  • Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers): price-history, income-trend, key-metrics, financials (statement tables), insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.

More for machine readers: site briefing at /llms.txt · any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER · raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds); every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.

PulteGroup, Inc.

PHM NYSE
Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction
Atlanta, GA 30326, United States pultegroupinc.com Updated Sep 2, 5:30am
Price
$123.13
Market Cap
$23.5B
Employees
6,506
Beta
1.21
Avg Volume
1,510,808
Last Dividend
$1.00
CEO
Mr. Ryan R. Marshall

PulteGroup, Inc. is a U.S. residential homebuilding company that designs, constructs, and sells homes for a range of buyers, including first-time purchasers, move-up families, and active-adult customers. Its portfolio includes single-family detached homes as well as attached housing such as townhomes, condominiums, and duplexes, supported by well-known brands including Centex, Pulte Homes, Del Webb, DiVosta Homes, and John Wieland Homes and Neighborhoods. The company also acquires and develops land for residential communities, helping shape neighborhoods and master-planned developments across the United States. Beyond home construction, PulteGroup provides financial services that include mortgage banking, title insurance, and closing-related services, creating an integrated homebuying experience. Headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia and founded in 1950, PulteGroup plays a significant role in the U.S. housing market through its broad product mix and end-to-end residential offerings.

Runs with full report Generated: Sep 2, 2026 5:50am
Price Overview
Price at report time
$123.13
as of Sep 2, 5:30am (18d ago)
Change · Sep 2
-3.19 (-2.53%)
Day Range
$122.93 – $126.30
52-Week Range
$108.49 – $144.50
50-Day MA
$129.30
200-Day MA
$125.11
Volume
1,501,053.00
Right now · live
Log in to get the live feed
Members see the real-time price and the move since this report (over 18d).
Share Structure
Outstanding 190,486,353.00
Float 185,996,034.00
Free Float 97.6%
High free float — 97.6% of shares trade freely, ~2.4% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Sep 2, 2026 6:20am (18d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Sep 2, 2026 5:50am (18d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
TD Twelve Data statement HEX SEC filing
Industry comparison last run: Sep 2, 2026 5:48am
P/E · trailing (TTM) (Price per dollar of earnings over the past year — not a run-rate or forward P/E)
HEX
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
11.07
Stock Price: $123.13
EPS (Diluted): 11.12
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
HEX
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
1.89
Stock Price: $123.13
Total Equity: $12.99B
Shares: 199,537,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
HEX
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
Market Cap: $23.45B
Total Debt: $43.90M
Cash: $1.98B
EBITDA: N/A
EBITDA not available
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
HEX
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$22.4B
Market Cap: $23.45B
Total Debt: $43.90M
Cash: $1.98B
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
HEX
Gross Profit / Revenue
Gross Profit: N/A
Revenue: $17.31B
Missing from API: Gross Profit
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
HEX
Operating Income / Revenue
Operating Income: N/A
Revenue: $17.31B
Missing from API: Operating Income
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
HEX
Net Income / Revenue
12.8%
Net Income: $2.22B
Revenue: $17.31B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
HEX
Net Income / Total Equity
17.1%
Net Income: $2.22B
Total Equity: $12.99B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
HEX
NOPAT / Invested Capital
Operating Income: N/A
Tax Rate: 23.8%
Equity: $12.99B
Total Debt: $43.90M
Cash: $1.98B
Missing from API: Operating Income
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
HEX
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
Current Assets: N/A
Current Liabilities: N/A
Missing from API: Current Assets, Current Liabilities
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
HEX
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.00
Short-Term Debt: $0.00
Long-Term Debt: $43.90M
Total Debt: $43.90M
Total Equity: $12.99B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
HEX
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$86.76
Revenue: $17.31B
Shares: 199,537,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
HEX
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$65.08
Total Equity: $12.99B
Shares: 199,537,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
HEX
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$8.76
Operating CF: $1.87B
CapEx: -$122.72M
Shares: 199,537,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
TD
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
0.8%
Last Dividend: $1.00
Stock Price: $123.13
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
HEX
Dividends Paid / Net Income
8.0%
Dividends Paid: -$176.68M
Net Income: $2.22B
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Sep 2, 2026 5:46am
Compares PHM against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Sep 2, 2026 5:50am (18d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $13.9B $16.2B $16.1B $17.9B $17.3B
Cost of Revenue
Gross Profit
Operating Expenses $1.2B $1.4B $1.3B $1.3B $1.6B
Operating Income
Net Income $1.9B $2.6B $2.6B $3.1B $2.2B
EBITDA
EPS $7.44 $11.07 $11.79 $14.82 $11.21
EPS (Diluted) $7.43 $11.01 $11.72 $14.69 $11.12
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Sep 2, 2026 5:30am (18d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $1.8B $1.1B $1.8B $1.6B $2.0B
Total Current Assets
Total Assets $13.4B $14.8B $16.1B $17.4B $18.0B
Current Liabilities
Long-Term Debt $63.9M $77.3M $73.5M $31.1M $43.9M
Total Liabilities $5.9B $5.9B $5.7B $5.2B $5.1B
Total Equity $7.5B $8.9B $10.4B $12.1B $13.0B
Retained Earnings $4.2B $5.6B $7.0B $8.7B $9.5B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Sep 2, 2026 6:20am (18d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $1.0B $668.5M $2.2B $1.7B $1.9B
Capital Expenditure -$72.8M -$112.7M -$92.2M -$118.5M -$122.7M
Free Cash Flow $931.2M $555.8M $2.1B $1.6B $1.7B
Acquisitions (net)
Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) -$836.9M -$4.9M -$123.3M -$355.8M -$24.5M
Dividends Paid -$147.8M -$144.1M -$142.5M -$167.7M -$176.7M
Stock Buybacks -$897.3M -$1.1B -$1.0B -$1.2B -$1.2B
Net Change in Cash
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Sep 2, 2026 5:50am (18d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +16.5% -1.0% +11.7% -3.5%
Gross Profit Growth
Operating Income Growth
Net Income Growth +34.5% -0.6% +18.5% -28.0%
EBITDA Growth
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 31, 2026 12:20pm (20d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-06-16 $0.26
2026-03-17 $0.26
2025-12-16 $0.26
2025-09-16 $0.22
2025-06-17 $0.22
2025-03-18 $0.22
2024-12-17 $0.22
2024-09-17 $0.20
2024-06-18 $0.20
2024-03-14 $0.20
2023-12-18 $0.20
2023-09-15 $0.16
2023-06-16 $0.16
2023-03-17 $0.16
2022-12-13 $0.16
2022-09-21 $0.15
2022-06-09 $0.15
2022-03-14 $0.15
2021-12-14 $0.15
2021-09-17 $0.14
0Company Classification 1Industry Landscape 2Company Momentum 3Forward Projection 4aDCF Valuation 4bEarnings Power Value 4cAnchored PE 4dReverse DCF 4eRevenue-Based DCF 4fAnchored P/S 4gScenario Analysis 4hDividend Discount Model 4iBook Value Analysis 4jInsider Activity 4fCash Flow Quality 4gDebt Maturity Risk 4hMacro Environment 4iSector Intelligence 4jRevenue Confidence 4kSensitivity Analysis 4lSector Demand Cycle 5AI Investigation 5bThesis Evaluation 6Valuation Synthesis
computed not applicable not yet run 16 computed · 6 not applicable · 2 not yet run
Risk : Reward — upside vs downside from this company's own quarters
Computed 2026-09-12 02:04
-0.8 : 1 +1σ upside vs −1σ downside, from this company's own quarterly history
A +1σ run of quarters pays -45%; a −1σ run costs 59%. Ratio -0.8:1 (μ -7.2%, σ 4.4% , 6 pairs).
Older method (repeat-worst-quarter): -0.7 : 1
CaseGrowthMarginFair valuevs price ($123.13)
Bull — recovery -5% 13.4% $70.46 -43%
Base — stabilizes -10% 11.6% $53.01 -57%
Bear — keeps slipping -15% 9.9% $39.24 -68%
Stress — last quarter repeats -12% 11.6% $48.50 -61%
Upside — a +1σ run of quarters (v2) -3% 11.6% $67.18 -45%
Stress — a −1σ run of quarters (v2) -12% 11.6% $49.89 -59%
The next quarters keep the trajectory of the worst recent matched quarter (ending 2026-03-31) — growth stays at -12.4% and margins bend by the same profit-vs-revenue ratio (×1.00). Stress is a trajectory, not a prediction — it answers "what if the ship's current heading simply continues," which history says is the case to respect.
Why this is appearing: this company files quarterly, so its recent trajectory could be measured rather than assumed — the engine matched Jun 2026, Mar 2026 against the same quarters one year earlier and found revenue -10.9% · net income -27.6% year-over-year. That measured heading is what the stress case extends forward. Of those, the stress case extends the worst matched quarter — the one ending Mar 31, 2026 (revenue -12.4% YoY) — not the average. Data measured through Jun 30, 2026 — this card recalculates automatically when the next quarterly filing is ingested. Companies without quarterly filings (many foreign listings) never show this card: with no measured trajectory, there is nothing honest to repeat.
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for PHM — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Growth Outlook
Analyzed 2026-09-02 06:31

The question every valuation on this page silently assumes: is this company likely to grow? Judged forward — the business, its category, the world — against what's already printed.

Shrinking Volume and price are both giving way — deliveries, ASP mix and incentive-laden gross margins are compressing faster than the category, and only a rate move down changes the near-term slope. conf 7/10
Cyclical Category shrinking · Residential Construction is in outright contraction (demand score -2, category median recent growth -3.5%, industry earnings CAGR -13.1%, industry revenue CAGR -0.1%). PHM's matched-quarter revenue is -10.9% and net income -27.6% — declining materially faster than the category median. That gap is mix and geography (Sun Belt concentration, entry-level exposure) plus a deliberate choice to defend margin rather than chase pace, not evidence of product rejection. PHM's brand portfolio, land bank and cost of capital remain among the strongest in the group, so position inside the category looks intact.
Next 2 quarters
Shrinking
Backlog entering the period was built at lower community counts and softer net pricing; deliveries roll off a declining order book while incentives remain in cost of sales. The most recent print (1.21 EPS) was already down sharply sequentially from 1.79 and 1.87, which is the shape of margin compression compounding on lower closings. Nothing in the rate or resale-supply setup reverses inside six months.
≈ inline with expectations
Year 1
Shrinking
Full-year revenue contraction plus negative operating leverage — net income falling ~2.5x the revenue rate — is the operative shape. Community count growth cannot offset lower absorption and net price, and land basis contracted in a firmer market rolls through cost of sales all year. Buyback cushions per-share arithmetic but does not change business direction.
↓ below expectations
Years 2–3
Holding
The structural case is intact: housing deficit, household formation, a top-tier land bank and a balance sheet that lets PHM buy lots while weaker builders retrench. But the earnings power that recovers is roughly the earnings power that existed before, at normalized margins below peak-cycle levels — recovery, not growth. Timing depends on a rate move PHM does not control, so Holding is the earned call rather than Growing.
↓ below expectations
The creme: each rung's call measured against what's already printed (vs analyst estimates · vs guidance / FY consensus · vs price-implied growth) — expectations in print are already in the price, so only the variant margin can pay. Hover a rung's chip for the margin read.
Growth drivers
45 Structural housing deficit + household formation — A decade-plus of underbuilding leaves the national inventory of new, move-in-ready homes below what demographic formation implies. This is the mechanism that stops a cyclical downturn from becoming secular: when financing cost eases, absorption returns quickly because there is no shadow inventory overhang comparable to 2008. It supports the years 2-3 rung, not the next two prints.
36 Del Webb / active-adult mix is less financing-sensitive — A meaningful share of PHM's book is 55+ buyers who transact with equity from a prior home sale rather than a fresh 30-year mortgage. That cohort dampens the amplitude of the rate cycle relative to pure entry-level builders and is why PHM's absolute decline should stay shallower than the weakest peers even as it exceeds category median this year.
27 Capital returns shrink the share count while earnings fall — Homebuilders in a soft cycle generate cash as land spend is throttled; PHM's history is to convert that into repurchase. This does not create business growth — it does cushion per-share earnings, which is what the analyst estimate line measures, and it partially explains why EPS prints have tracked estimates within 1% while revenue fell double digits.
24 Integrated financial services attach — In-house mortgage lets PHM fund rate buydowns as a marketing cost with visibility into capture rate, preserving closings when a standalone builder would lose the sale. It sustains volume — but it is the same lever that transfers the pain into gross margin, so it is a volume driver and a margin risk simultaneously.
Growth risks
75 Financing cost at 10y 4.75% keeps the payment math broken — With the 10-year at 4.75% and a modest 0.41 curve, the 30-year mortgage sits at a level where the monthly payment on a median new home exceeds what the median household qualifies for without builder subsidy. Demand is not destroyed, it is deferred — but deferral is exactly what shows up as the -10.9% revenue line, and nothing in the macro backdrop signals relief inside two quarters.
69 Incentive/buydown cost is compressing margin industry-wide — Industry net margins are down 3.7pp over three years and industry earnings CAGR is -13.1%. PHM's own net income fell -27.6% on a -10.9% revenue decline — that ~2.5x operating leverage to the downside is the signature of subsidized closings plus fixed overhead on lower volume. Margin, not volume, is the bigger swing factor for year_1.
55 Sun Belt resale and spec supply is normalizing against PHM's core markets — PHM's concentration in Florida, Texas and the Southeast is where existing-home listings and competing builder spec inventory have rebuilt fastest. Where resale supply returns, the builder loses the scarcity premium and must clear standing spec with price — this is the mechanism by which PHM's decline runs steeper than the category's -3.5% median.
43 Entry-level (Centex) buyer is the most rate-elastic slice — First-time buyers have no trade-up equity to absorb a higher payment and the least savings buffer. If employment softens at all, this cohort's cancellation rate rises first, which puts backlog conversion — not just new orders — at risk in the next two prints.
38 Land and development cost inflation is sticky against falling ASP — Lots and horizontal development were contracted at prior-cycle assumptions and roll through cost of sales with a lag. Falling net pricing meeting fixed land basis is a structural gross-margin squeeze that persists even if orders stabilize.
This is a financing-cost story, not a demand-preference story. The single variable that decides PHM's trajectory is the 30-year mortgage rate, which tracks the 10-year at 4.75%. Households want the houses; they cannot make the payment without a builder-funded buydown, and each buydown is a direct transfer from gross margin to closing volume. Layer on macro headwinds and a flat curve, and both the volume and the margin line stay pressured through at least the next two prints. The structural offset is real and unusual for a cyclical: the U.S. is short housing stock, formation continues, and there is no 2008-style shadow inventory, so the recovery mechanism is a rate move rather than years of absorption. That makes the shape of this business a deep near-term trough with intact long-run earnings power — but the timing of the inflection sits entirely outside management's control, which is why the structural rung earns Holding rather than Growing.
Growth position composite -55 near/structural split
ShrinkingStallingHoldingGrowingAccelerating
10Next 2 quarters · Shrinking
10Year 1 · Shrinking
50Years 2–3 · Holding
-55Composite (−100…+100)
A research prediction, not advice. Forward-graded: each rung is scored against the prints that follow it. Not an input to the GEM designation — track record first.
Claude Reading
Independent analyst synthesis · claude-opus-4-7 · generated 2026-09-02 06:19:37
Verdict Overvalued — fair value $75-90 vs $123; balance sheet is fortress-grade but margins still compressing off peak, wait for P/B <1.4x or two quarters of margin re-expansion before entry.

Looking at the raw quarterly tape first: TTM revenue is roughly $16.4B ($3.98+$3.41+$4.61+$4.40) versus prior-year TTM of $17.6B, so we're -7% YoY on the top line, and TTM net income is ~$1.91B versus $2.63B a year ago, -27%. Q2'26 margin of 11.9% is actually a sequential improvement from Q1'26's 10.2%, but the trajectory from 2024's 18.6% peak margin down through 13.3% (Q3'25), 10.9% (Q4'25), 10.2% (Q1'26) is unmistakable margin compression. This is not a "trough" — this is a stock still in the process of normalizing off peak. Book value is $12.99B, so at $23.45B market cap we're at 1.8x P/B on a company earning ~15% ROE and falling. Debt is essentially zero ($43.9M against $1.98B cash) — the balance sheet fortress is real and undisputed.

Where I part company with the synthesis: the $92 DCF fair value looks anchored to normalized mid-cycle earnings that we may not see for two years. If TTM EPS is around $10 and still declining (Q1+Q2 2026 annualized runs closer to $8.60), and margins are compressing another 200-300bps toward historical mid-cycle 9-10%, then normalized EPS is arguably $7-8, not the $11 the market is implicitly capitalizing. At a cyclical 9x trough multiple on $7.50, you get $67 — well below the synthesis's $92. The Market Forces model calling this a "cyclical value trap" is closer to the truth than the DCF composite. On the other hand, the Thesis Evaluation's -10 score understates how much optionality the pristine balance sheet gives Pulte to buy back stock through the trough — FCF was $1.75B in 2025 against a $23B cap, that's a 7.5% FCF yield funding aggressive repurchase.

The contrarian argument that no model articulates cleanly: homebuilders historically bottom on P/B, not P/E, precisely because earnings collapse into troughs. PHM at 1.8x P/B is nowhere near the 0.8-1.1x that marked the 2008-2011 and 2018 bottoms. If you believe we're mid-cycle-rolling-over rather than late-cycle-bottoming, the P/B compression argument alone suggests fair value in the $70-85 range even before earnings math. Conversely, the bull case nobody's crediting enough: rate cuts in 2026 could re-accelerate order books faster than the cyclical bears assume, and Pulte's zero-debt structure means it doesn't have the refinancing overhang KBH or others carry. But that's a rate call, not a Pulte call — you'd express it through XHB, not single-name.

Data quality flags: no gross or operating margin disclosure in the annual snapshot is annoying for a company where mix (Del Webb active-adult vs entry-level Centex) drives everything. The "revenue_confidence: low, decelerating" tag is correct and material — this is not a business where you can trust NTM estimates within 10%. I dissent from the synthesis's $92 fair value as too generous and side with the Market Forces headwinds framing: this is a hold-your-fire situation, not an entry. Fair value bracket $75-90, with entry only compelling below $85 or after a Q4 print confirming margin stabilization. At $123, you're paying peak-normal multiples for a company in cyclical downshift with a fortress balance sheet as your only real margin of safety. The synthesis says -25% overvalued; I'd say -30 to -35% overvalued and would not chase any bounce until either P/B compresses to 1.3x or quarterly margins re-expand for two consecutive prints.

GPT Reading
Independent reading · gpt-5.4 · generated 2026-09-02 06:19:53
Verdict Fairly valued around $123 — PHM’s fortress balance sheet and cash generation offset the housing slowdown, but ongoing margin compression keeps me from paying much above $125 until earnings stabilize.

What jumps out is not “cheap cyclicality,” but a company still earning very good money while its profit structure is clearly rolling over. Revenue peaked at $17.95B in 2024 and slipped to $17.31B in 2025, only a 3.6% decline, but net income fell from $3.08B to $2.22B, down 27.9%. That gap matters: it says the issue is not simply volume noise, it is margin normalization. You can see it quarter by quarter. In 2024’s December quarter PHM printed an eye-popping 18.6% net margin on $4.92B of revenue; by 2025 the run-rate had settled more into the 10.9%-13.8% range, and the first half of 2026 is weaker still at 10.2% and 11.9%. On a trailing four-quarter basis using the data provided, revenue is about $16.4B and net income about $1.91B, implying an 11.6% net margin versus 17.2% for full-year 2024 and 12.8% for full-year 2025. The market is not paying a heroic multiple at 11.1x annual earnings, but it is also not paying a distressed trough multiple for a business whose earnings base is still declining at a much faster rate than sales.

The balance sheet is the best part of the story and the reason I am not outright bearish. PHM has just $43.9M of debt against $1.98B of cash, debt-to-equity of effectively zero at 0.0034, and generated $1.75B of free cash flow in 2025 on only $122.7M of capex. That is extraordinary financial resilience for a homebuilder. Book value is $12.99B, so at a $23.45B market cap the stock trades around 1.9x book — not demanding if returns stay elevated, but not obviously cheap if ROE is drifting down with margins. A 17.1% ROE on the latest annual remains strong, yet that is already well below the earnings peak implied by 2024’s $3.08B profit. The stock at $123 is basically asking investors to believe that current earnings are close enough to mid-cycle and that the company can keep converting cash while waiting out the rate environment. I think that is mostly fair, but not a bargain: the fortress balance sheet deserves a premium to weaker builders, yet the income statement no longer supports paying up for “structural” housing scarcity as if cyclical gravity has gone away.

The biggest contradiction in the bearish model outputs is that they lean hard on a fair value around $90 as though PHM were a fragile late-cycle story. The raw data do not support fragility. This company is overcapitalized, cash generative, and profitable even after a sharp earnings reset. If trailing earnings are around $1.91B, the stock is closer to 12x that figure; for a net-cash homebuilder still earning double-digit net margins, that is not expensive in absolute terms. But the contradiction cuts both ways: the bullish instinct to call 11x earnings “obviously cheap” also misses that those earnings are not stable. Recent quarter net income is down roughly 28% year over year on only 3%-10% revenue declines, which is exactly what late-cycle homebuilding de-rating looks like. To me the correct read is neither value trap nor screaming mispricing. It is a high-quality cyclical being valued about where it should be until either orders and pricing stabilize or margins keep sliding toward a more normal single-digit level.

The strongest case against my read is straightforward: if 2025 was the reset year, the stock is cheap. Even after the drop from $3.08B of net income in 2024 to $2.22B in 2025, PHM still produced $1.87B of operating cash flow and $1.75B of free cash flow, while carrying nearly $2.0B in cash and virtually no debt. A company with those numbers at 1.4x sales and 1.9x book could easily deserve well above $123 if housing supply remains constrained and mortgage rates merely stop getting worse. The 2026 June quarter revenue of $3.98B versus $4.40B a year earlier is down 9.5%, but net margin at 11.9% was actually better than the immediately preceding 10.2% in March, so one could argue margins are settling rather than collapsing. If investors decide 2024 was abnormal and 2025-2026 are just the new base, then 11x earnings for a dominant, cash-rich builder with demographic tailwinds can look outright attractive. I weigh that argument less heavily because I do not see evidence yet that earnings have bottomed; I see evidence that they are still stepping down.

What would change my mind is simple. I would turn more constructive if PHM can put up two things at once: renewed top-line growth and proof that net margins can hold around 12% or better. Concretely, if the next few quarters show revenue back above prior-year levels while quarterly net income stops posting 20%-plus declines, then the stock would deserve a higher multiple and I could justify $135-$145. I would turn clearly bearish if revenue keeps slipping into the mid-single digits down year over year and margins head toward 9%-10%; on roughly $16B of revenue, that would imply earnings power closer to $1.5B-$1.6B, making $123 too rich and pushing fair value closer to $95-$105.

Grok Reading
Independent reading · grok-4.5 · generated 2026-09-02 06:20:55
Verdict Modestly overvalued at $123 vs ~$105–115 intrinsic on normalized ~$2B earnings; fortress BS caps downside but earnings trajectory does not support upside from here

PulteGroup’s numbers describe a clean post-peak comedown, not a collapse. Annual revenue rolled over from $17.95B in 2024 to $17.31B in 2025 (−3.5%), while net income fell harder—from $3.08B to $2.22B (−28%)—as net margins compressed from the mid-teens/high-teens prints of 2024 (15.6–18.6%) into the 10–13% band that has defined every quarter since. The first half of 2026 continues that pattern: $3.41B then $3.98B of revenue and $347M then $472M of net income, for a trailing run-rate that annualizes uncomfortably close to $2B of earnings if the seasonal second half only partially recovers. Free cash flow remains real at $1.75B on just $123M of capex, ROE is still 17%, and the balance sheet is essentially unlevered ($44M debt against $1.98B cash and $13.0B of equity). That combination—declining but still double-digit-margin earnings, fortress liquidity, and a 11.1× trailing P/E / 1.4× sales—is the entire story. The stock is being priced as a mid-cycle earner that has already given back its peak, not as a distressed cyclical.

The quantitative stack that spits out a $90–92 fair value and a −25% overvaluation signal is too punitive on that fact set. Capitalizing $1.75B of FCF at 10× to justify $92 ignores that a net-cash homebuilder still clearing ~12% net margins and 17% ROE has rarely been consigned to a trough multiple while the industry is still shipping $17B of houses. A more coherent range sits nearer $105–115 (roughly 11–12× a normalized $2.0–2.1B earnings power and ~12–13× FCF), which still leaves $123 modestly rich but nowhere near the 25% air pocket the composite claims. The “value trap / wait for capitulation” market-forces line also over-reaches: revenue confidence is low and the trend is decelerating, yet absolute profitability and cash conversion have not broken. Structural underbuilding since 2008 and the Del Webb 55+ franchise are not narrative vapor; they are visible in the resilience of gross activity even as price/mix and incentives pressure margins.

The strongest opposing case is straightforward and numerate. Earnings CAGR is already −7.7% and FCF CAGR −8.9%; the 2024 $913M quarter looks like a cycle high that will not be revisited soon; Q1 2026’s 10.2% margin and $347M print show how fast profitability can gap lower when closings slow; and affordability (price × rate) has no internal fix inside PHM’s control. If 2026 full-year net income settles at $1.7–1.8B rather than $2.0B+, the forward multiple expands to 13–14× on still-falling numbers, and the 34% premium the narrative layer is carrying above a $92 DCF becomes indefensible. That is the smart bear’s sheet: you are paying a mid-cycle multiple for what may still be early- to mid-decline earnings, financed by a story about permanent supply scarcity that rate shocks or a mild recession can puncture. I weigh it seriously—enough to refuse a buy—but not enough to endorse the $92 anchor, because zero net debt and $1.75B of FCF buy time and optionality that pure earnings-power models discard.

I would flip to outright undervalued only if two or three consecutive quarters show net margins stabilizing above 12.5%, net new orders and community count turning positive on a year-over-year basis, and forward EPS consensus re-anchoring above $11 with mortgage rates sustained below ~6%. I would flip more decisively bearish (and closer to the model’s $92) if H2 2026 revenue fails to seasonally recover above $4.2B per quarter or if net margins breach 10% on the downside while cancellations rise—evidence that the affordability reset is still ahead rather than behind.

Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Each AI above independently stated a direction (undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued) and how strongly it believes it (conviction, 0–5). We combine those into a Bull-Bear Index on a 0–10 scale: 5 is neutral, 10 is maximum bullish (undervalued at full conviction), 0 is maximum bearish. We compute the score ourselves with the same arithmetic for every seat — the models never grade their own bullishness — so the three are directly comparable. Δ shows how far each seat sits from the panel average of 2.7; a large Δ marks the dissenting voice, usually the one worth reading.
Claude claude-opus-4-7 1.0
overvalued · conviction 4/5 · Δ -1.7 vs panel · self: 3.0
GPT gpt-5.4 5.0
fairly valued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +2.3 vs panel · self: 5.0
Grok grok-4.5 2.0
overvalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ -0.7 vs panel · self: 3.0
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-09-02 06:32:50
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality — wait for a dip 8/10
Great operator, wrong price, wrong tape — PHM is a name to own only after a real drawdown.
The cruxWhether the 10y and mortgage-rate backdrop rolls over before margin normalization prints — that single variable decides if $123 is peak-cycle or just a pause.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from PHM's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionShare Count Shrinking
Earnings QualityAdequate / Mixed
The four lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+38
Strong
edge √Σ 122 · risk √Σ 82 · conf 8/10

PulteGroup shows the hallmarks of a well-run mature cyclical: $1.98B liquid cash, $1.94B net cash, Altman Z of 4.48 (safe zone), and $1.75B of trailing FCF that fully self-funds operations. Revenue has grown from $13.9B (2021) to $17.3B (2025) with net income roughly $2.2B-$3.1B across the cycle, showing the business held profitability through a difficult rate environment for housing. Diluted shares fell from 259.9M to 199.5M, a -6.4% CAGR, with buyback-to-SBC of 2262x - management is a heavy net repurchaser and per-share value is being concentrated, not diluted. The main blemish is earnings quality: OCF/NI of 0.6x and accruals at 6.6% of assets in the latest period suggest reported net income is running ahead of cash conversion, a common but real issue in homebuilders where WIP inventory and land spend absorb cash. Net income dropped from $3.08B (2024) to $2.22B (2025) on flat-to-down revenue ($17.95B to $17.31B), hinting margin pressure has arrived. Still, over the full window FCF cumulates to ~$6.9B against ~$12.5B net income - decent but not tight cash conversion typical of a land-heavy builder. The picture is a solid, cycle-tested operator with strong solvency and shareholder-friendly capital return. It is not a fortress-tier compounder because it is inherently cyclical, capital-intensive, and shows cash-vs-earnings slippage in the current period, but it is clearly above average in operating discipline for its industry.

Strengths 3
m78
Aggressive share count reduction
Diluted shares down from 259.9M to 199.5M in four years (-6.4% CAGR); buyback/SBC ratio of 2262x means dilution is a non-issue and per-share economics are compounding.
m72
Fortress balance sheet
$1.94B net cash, Altman Z 4.48 (safe), and $1.75B FCF against a $23.5B market cap - no refinancing or survival risk visible.
m60
Cycle-tested profitability
Net income stayed between $1.95B and $3.08B across 2021-2025 despite a hostile rate environment for housing - shows underlying operating discipline.
Concerns 3
m55
Cash trailing earnings
OCF/NI at 0.6x and accruals 6.6% of assets in the latest period; over four years cumulative FCF (~$6.9B) is only ~55% of cumulative net income (~$12.5B), reflecting land/WIP absorption.
m45
Cyclical demand rolling over
Revenue declined from $17.95B (2024) to $17.31B (2025) and net income fell from $3.08B to $2.22B - a 28% earnings drop on 4% revenue drop points to margin compression.
m40
Structural cyclicality and capital intensity
Residential construction is land-heavy, rate-sensitive, and has thin durable moat characteristics - caps how high a quality grade can go regardless of execution.
This is a well-run homebuilder doing the right things: hoarding cash, aggressively retiring shares, keeping leverage low, and remaining profitable through a rough rate cycle. What keeps me from calling it top-tier is twofold - cash conversion is loose (OCF/NI 0.6x) which is normal for the industry but still a real ding on earnings integrity, and the business itself is a rate-sensitive cyclical with no durable moat, so operating quality can be excellent while the terminal quality ceiling remains capped. I read it as a Strong business in a cyclical industry, not a Fortress compounder. The recent revenue and margin softening deserves monitoring but does not change the underlying character.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Land inventory and lot option mix in the 10-K - is the cash-vs-earnings gap driven by disciplined land banking or bloating WIP?
  • Gross margin trajectory by quarter through 2025 to gauge whether pricing/incentives are compressing further
  • Debt maturity ladder and any off-balance-sheet land banking obligations
  • Insider transaction detail - are the buybacks being offset by any large insider selling?
  • Cancellation rates and backlog trends in latest 10-Q to confirm demand direction
Valuation / Mispricing
-70
Rich
edge √Σ 25 · risk √Σ 112 · conf 7/10
Price $123 vs deserved ~$90-92, roughly 25-35% above fair - clearly rich, not catastrophic. attractive below $95.00

Price is $123.13 against a composite fair value of $90.02 and signal-adjusted FV of $92.01 - roughly 25% above deserved value. The two methods bracket the answer sensibly: DCF at $76.45 reflects normalized cash flows for a rate-sensitive cyclical, while anchored-PE at $117.16 leans on current (arguably peak) earnings power. Even the more generous method sits below spot, which tells you the market is paying for the optimistic case. Quality is strong (disciplined buybacks, low leverage, real FCF), which justifies a premium to book/DCF - but not this much. Cash conversion of 0.6x OCF/NI is a real haircut on reported earnings, and pricing a late-cycle homebuilder on trailing PE assumes the supply-tightness narrative holds through the next rate move. The bull case (structural underbuild, scale, buybacks) is entirely in the price; the bear case (rate re-acceleration, margin normalization) is not. Margin of safety is negative - you are underwriting the bull outcome at cost.

Cheap signals 1
m25
Aggressive buybacks and fortress balance sheet
Disciplined share retirement and low leverage support a premium to book-based methods and cushion downside - but do not close a 25%+ gap.
Rich / priced-in 4
m68
Price 25-35% above composite fair value
$123.13 vs composite FV $90.02 and signal-adj $92.01 - upside is negative 25%. Even the anchored-PE method ($117) sits below spot.
m60
DCF says $76 - normalized economics are far below price
DCF of $76.45 implies ~38% downside if you believe through-cycle cash flows. For a cyclical, DCF deserves real weight.
m55
Peak-cycle multiple on peak-cycle earnings
Anchored-PE uses current earnings that reflect tight supply and elevated pricing. Homebuilder PEs should compress, not expand, at cycle peaks - the market is doing the opposite.
m35
Loose cash conversion warrants a haircut
OCF/NI ~0.6x means reported earnings overstate distributable cash - anchored-PE on GAAP EPS overstates deserved value.
I don't want to own this here. Quality is real - I get it - but at $123 against a $90 composite and a $76 DCF, I am paying for permanent supply tightness and no rate re-shock. That is a specific bet, and it is fully in the price. Homebuilders are the wrong asset to buy on trailing earnings when the cycle question is open. I need it closer to $95 - roughly the signal-adjusted FV - before quality and buybacks tilt the math my way. Until then, this is a hold-if-you-own-it, don't-chase-it name.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Order backlog trends and cancellation rates in latest 10-Q
  • Gross margin trajectory - guidance for next 2 quarters vs current levels
  • Land spend and lot count growth - is management leaning in at the top?
  • Incentive/buydown costs embedded in ASP - true realized margin
  • Buyback pace vs FCF - sustainability at current price
General Sentiment
-82
Headwind
tail √Σ 20 · head √Σ 137 · conf 7/10

The pressure on PulteGroup right now is net negative and specifically shaped by its identity as a high-beta (1.21) cyclical homebuilder. The prevailing narrative is a 'cyclical-late-stage' story with fragile durability and no cult support - meaning the market is willing to sell first and ask questions later on any crack. That crack is arriving: a fresh Apollo/Slok note today framing housing as a drag on GDP is exactly the kind of macro-narrative headline that de-rates the entire builder cohort, and PHM has no idiosyncratic story (no AI angle, no secular growth halo) to insulate it. Macro context amplifies the hit rather than mutes it. The 10y at 4.75% keeps mortgage rates elevated, which is the single variable the bear case hangs on, and a neutral-to-slightly-soft tape (S&P off 2.2%, VIX 16.3) offers no risk-on cover for a 1.21-beta cyclical. Momentum is already rolling over (recent -3.5% vs 3.8% long-term trend, three-year deceleration), signaling the tape has begun pricing the bear leg of the narrative. Nothing in the flow is currently pushing UP on this name - no upgrade cycle, no positive catalyst, no rotation into housing. Net: a real, persistent headwind, not a decisive collapse.

Tailwinds 1
m20
No active mania to unwind
Because narrative intensity is only moderate and cult is low, there is no euphoric positioning to puke - limiting downside velocity even as pressure grinds.
Headwinds 5
m70
Housing-as-drag macro narrative resurfacing
Today's Apollo/Slok piece explicitly frames weak housing as a threat to the broader economy - a top-down narrative that directly targets homebuilders and gives macro funds a reason to underweight the group.
m65
Fragile narrative, no cult support
The bull thesis (structural undersupply, demographic demand) is intensity-moderate and durability-fragile with low cult coefficient. Fragile stories break under mild pressure, and PHM has no loyal narrative base to defend the multiple.
m60
Rates tape hostile to the exact bear trigger
10y at 4.75% keeps mortgage rates in the zone the bear case says 'crushes demand.' For a builder, this is the single most sentiment-relevant macro variable and it is sitting on the wrong side.
m55
Beta 1.21 into a soft, nascent-neutral tape
With the S&P off its high and VIX elevated relative to the past year, a high-beta cyclical takes disproportionate mark-downs. PHM is exactly the profile that gets sold in de-risking episodes.
m55
Momentum already rolling over
Recent -3.5% vs a 3.8% long-term trend and a -3.4pp three-year deceleration show the tape is already leaning bearish on this name - sentiment pressure is confirmed by price, not just headlines.
Net headwind, not catastrophic. This is a fragile late-cycle housing story with no cult defenders, meeting a rates-hostile macro backdrop and a fresh 'housing is a drag on the economy' narrative from a credible voice - all landing on a 1.21-beta cyclical whose momentum has already turned. There is no offsetting tailwind - no AI halo, no upgrade cycle, no risk-on tape. I lean clearly negative on sentiment pressure but stop short of Strong Headwind because narrative intensity is only moderate and there is no forced-selling mania to unwind; this is a grind lower, not a break.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Any shift in 10y yields or mortgage rate prints - a move back toward 4% would flip the narrative pressure
  • Homebuilder analyst target revisions and downgrade cadence following the Slok/housing-drag narrative
  • Whether the housing-weakness story broadens (starts, permits, cancellations) or fades within the news cycle
  • Sector rotation flows in ITB/XHB relative to S&P as a real-time sentiment gauge
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
Growth Outlook
-55
Shrinking
edge √Σ 68 · risk √Σ 129 · conf 7/10

This is a financing-cost story, not a demand-preference story. The single variable that decides PHM's trajectory is the 30-year mortgage rate, which tracks the 10-year at 4.75%. Households want the houses; they cannot make the payment without a builder-funded buydown, and each buydown is a direct transfer from gross margin to closing volume. Layer on macro headwinds and a flat curve, and both the volume and the margin line stay pressured through at least the next two prints. The structural offset is real and unusual for a cyclical: the U.S. is short housing stock, formation continues, and there is no 2008-style shadow inventory, so the recovery mechanism is a rate move rather than years of absorption. That makes the shape of this business a deep near-term trough with intact long-run earnings power — but the timing of the inflection sits entirely outside management's control, which is why the structural rung earns Holding rather than Growing.

Growth drivers 4
m45
Structural housing deficit + household formation
A decade-plus of underbuilding leaves the national inventory of new, move-in-ready homes below what demographic formation implies. This is the mechanism that stops a cyclical downturn from becoming secular: when financing cost eases, absorption returns quickly because there is no shadow inventory overhang comparable to 2008. It supports the years 2-3 rung, not the next two prints.
m36
Del Webb / active-adult mix is less financing-sensitive
A meaningful share of PHM's book is 55+ buyers who transact with equity from a prior home sale rather than a fresh 30-year mortgage. That cohort dampens the amplitude of the rate cycle relative to pure entry-level builders and is why PHM's absolute decline should stay shallower than the weakest peers even as it exceeds category median this year.
m27
Capital returns shrink the share count while earnings fall
Homebuilders in a soft cycle generate cash as land spend is throttled; PHM's history is to convert that into repurchase. This does not create business growth — it does cushion per-share earnings, which is what the analyst estimate line measures, and it partially explains why EPS prints have tracked estimates within 1% while revenue fell double digits.
m24
Integrated financial services attach
In-house mortgage lets PHM fund rate buydowns as a marketing cost with visibility into capture rate, preserving closings when a standalone builder would lose the sale. It sustains volume — but it is the same lever that transfers the pain into gross margin, so it is a volume driver and a margin risk simultaneously.
Growth risks 5
m75
Financing cost at 10y 4.75% keeps the payment math broken
With the 10-year at 4.75% and a modest 0.41 curve, the 30-year mortgage sits at a level where the monthly payment on a median new home exceeds what the median household qualifies for without builder subsidy. Demand is not destroyed, it is deferred — but deferral is exactly what shows up as the -10.9% revenue line, and nothing in the macro backdrop signals relief inside two quarters.
m69
Incentive/buydown cost is compressing margin industry-wide
Industry net margins are down 3.7pp over three years and industry earnings CAGR is -13.1%. PHM's own net income fell -27.6% on a -10.9% revenue decline — that ~2.5x operating leverage to the downside is the signature of subsidized closings plus fixed overhead on lower volume. Margin, not volume, is the bigger swing factor for year_1.
m55
Sun Belt resale and spec supply is normalizing against PHM's core markets
PHM's concentration in Florida, Texas and the Southeast is where existing-home listings and competing builder spec inventory have rebuilt fastest. Where resale supply returns, the builder loses the scarcity premium and must clear standing spec with price — this is the mechanism by which PHM's decline runs steeper than the category's -3.5% median.
m43
Entry-level (Centex) buyer is the most rate-elastic slice
First-time buyers have no trade-up equity to absorb a higher payment and the least savings buffer. If employment softens at all, this cohort's cancellation rate rises first, which puts backlog conversion — not just new orders — at risk in the next two prints.
m38
Land and development cost inflation is sticky against falling ASP
Lots and horizontal development were contracted at prior-cycle assumptions and roll through cost of sales with a lag. Falling net pricing meeting fixed land basis is a structural gross-margin squeeze that persists even if orders stabilize.
vs expectations: ~6m inline · 1y below · 2-3y below
The forward growth verdict — is the business itself likely to grow (next 2 quarters / year 1 / years 2–3), judged against its category and against printed expectations. The full horizon ladder + creme renders on the Growth Outlook card above. Not a call on the price (Valuation owns that) or the tape (Sentiment owns that).
Please log in to view trade setups
The Augustus trade-setup read is a members feature.
Log in
Lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure), and Growth Outlook (the forward growth verdict). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Price Prediction
Lower -11.3% v0.6.0 View full prediction →

When we made this prediction on Sep 2, 2026, PHM was $123.97. We expect it to be $110.00 by Mar 2027, and we consider it great value under $95.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Sep 2, 2026.

Price when predicted$123.97
Our estimate for Mar 2027$110.00-11.3%
Great value below$95.00
Price history shown (6 Months)

Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.

Community AI Feedback
No community reviews yet for PHM. Be the first — hit How to Contribute, have any AI review this page, and paste its take back here.
My Notes personal — only you see this
v1.1.635 · aa95c0ec · 2026-09-20 23:35:37