For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page
What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Axon Enterprise, Inc. (AXON) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-31): Designation Low · Gem Score -60 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality -19 · Value -87 · Sentiment 15 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $67.17 vs $525.48 at analysis
Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable
reference-name attribute you can cite):
profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
price-history,income-trend,key-metrics,financials(statement tables),insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.
More for machine readers: site briefing at
/llms.txt ·
any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER ·
raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds);
every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.
Axon Enterprise, Inc.
AXON NASDAQAxon Enterprise, Inc. is a public safety technology company that develops and provides integrated hardware and cloud-based software solutions for law enforcement, justice, and related sectors worldwide. The company focuses on building a comprehensive public safety operating system that connects devices, data, and workflows for first responders and public safety agencies. Its offerings span conducted energy devices under the TASER brand, body-worn cameras, in-car and fixed cameras, drones, robotic security solutions, and virtual reality training hardware. On the software side, Axon Enterprise delivers software-as-a-service platforms such as Axon Evidence, Axon Records, and other applications that enable secure capture, storage, management, sharing, and analysis of video and digital evidence. The company serves a broad customer base including federal, state, local, and international government agencies, as well as commercial enterprises and individual consumers, primarily through direct sales and channel partners. Founded in 1993 and headquartered in Scottsdale, Arizona, Axon Enterprise plays a significant role in the digital transformation of modern public safety operations.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 1.51
Total Equity: $3.24B
Shares: 82,553,642
Total Debt: $1.91B
Cash: $1.20B
EBITDA: $57.86M
Total Debt: $1.91B
Cash: $1.20B
Revenue: $2.78B
Revenue: $2.78B
Revenue: $2.78B
Total Equity: $3.24B
Tax Rate: -557.0%
Equity: $3.24B
Total Debt: $1.91B
Cash: $1.20B
Current Liabilities: $1.47B
Long-Term Debt: $1.83B
Total Debt: $1.91B
Total Equity: $3.24B
Shares: 82,553,642
Shares: 82,553,642
CapEx: -$136.26M
Shares: 82,553,642
Stock Price: $525.48
Net Income: $124.66M
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 28, 2026 12:24am (34d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $863.4M | $1.2B | $1.6B | $2.1B | $2.8B |
| Cost of Revenue | $322.5M | $461.3M | $608.0M | $841.1M | $1.1B |
| Gross Profit | $540.9M | $728.6M | $955.4M | $1.2B | — |
| Operating Expenses | $709.0M | $635.4M | $800.6M | $1.2B | $1.7B |
| Operating Income | -$168.1M | $93.3M | $154.8M | $58.5M | -$62.1M |
| Net Income | -$60.0M | $147.1M | $174.2M | $377.0M | $124.7M |
| EBITDA | -$149.4M | $123.3M | $236.9M | $150.3M | $57.9M |
| EPS | $-0.91 | $2.07 | $2.35 | $4.98 | $1.60 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-0.91 | $2.03 | $2.31 | $4.80 | $1.51 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 25, 2026 3:23am (37d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $356.3M | $353.7M | $598.5M | $454.8M | $1.2B |
| Total Current Assets | $1.1B | $1.8B | $2.4B | $2.3B | $3.7B |
| Total Assets | $1.7B | $2.9B | $3.4B | $4.5B | $7.0B |
| Current Liabilities | $418.5M | $602.6M | $800.0M | $1.7B | $1.5B |
| Long-Term Debt | $20.4M | $711.1M | $710.7M | $41.4M | $1.8B |
| Total Liabilities | $640.4M | $1.6B | $1.8B | $2.1B | $3.8B |
| Total Equity | $1.0B | $1.3B | $1.6B | $2.3B | $3.2B |
| Retained Earnings | $109.9M | $257.0M | $431.2M | $812.0M | $936.7M |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 28, 2026 12:24am (34d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $124.5M | $235.4M | $189.3M | $408.3M | $211.3M |
| Capital Expenditure | -$49.9M | -$55.8M | -$59.6M | -$78.8M | -$136.3M |
| Free Cash Flow | $74.6M | $179.6M | $129.6M | $329.5M | $75.1M |
| Acquisitions (net) | -$22.4M | -$2.1M | -$21.1M | -$621.8M | -$646.9M |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividends Paid | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stock Buybacks | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net Change in Cash | $200.9M | $-886,000 | $245.1M | -$133.9M | $746.6M |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jul 28, 2026 12:24am (34d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +37.8% | +31.4% | +33.2% | +33.5% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +34.7% | +31.1% | +29.9% | — |
| Operating Income Growth | +155.5% | +66.0% | -62.2% | -206.0% |
| Net Income Growth | +345.2% | +18.4% | +116.4% | -66.9% |
| EBITDA Growth | +182.5% | +92.1% | -36.5% | -61.5% |
Deep Analysis
Risk : Reward — upside vs downside from this company's own quarters
Computed 2026-08-26 02:16Even the bull case prices 56% below today — the ratio here measures the model-vs-market gap, not payoff odds. Another quarter like the worst recent one costs 96%.
| Case | Growth | Margin | Fair value | vs price ($525.48) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull — recovery | +62% | 16.8% | $230.82 | -56% |
| Base — stabilizes | +41% | 14.6% | $120.15 | -77% |
| Bear — keeps slipping | +21% | 12.4% | $58.02 | -89% |
| Stress — last quarter repeats | +31% | 3.1% | $22.49 | -96% |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
Looking at the raw trajectory first: revenue is unambiguously accelerating in absolute dollars — Q1'25 at $603.6M vs Q1'24 at $459.9M is +31% YoY, and the sequential Q4'24→Q1'25 step ($575M→$604M) shows no deceleration. But the profitability story is ugly in a way the models soft-pedal. FY2025 operating income is *negative $62M* on $2.78B revenue, down from +$58.5M op income on $2.08B a year earlier. Net income cratered from $377M (2024) to $125M (2025) — a 67% collapse while revenue grew 34%. FCF fell to $75M from what should have been much higher on this revenue base; FCF/revenue is 2.7%. This is not "SaaS margin expansion" — this is a company spending aggressively enough that GAAP operating profitability inverted. The narrative model's "genuinely profitable" line needs an asterisk: 2025 operating margin is -2.2%.
The prior models broadly converge on "priced for excellence, requires conviction" and I largely agree with the direction but think they're too kind on the magnitude. At $525 and $42.4B market cap on $2.78B revenue, EV/S ~15x is defensible for a 33% grower — but only if you underwrite margin recovery. The reverse-DCF's "60% implied growth" is misleading framing because current margins don't support any DCF; you have to first assume operating margins normalize to 20-25% (management's implied SaaS-mix trajectory) *and then* grow 25%+ for a decade. That's a compound bet. The synthesis calls this "priced for excellence with margin for one mistake" — I'd say margin for zero mistakes, because the 2025 op loss already *is* the first mistake and the stock is 41% off highs absorbing it. A contrarian would note that the 2024→2025 margin collapse happened during peak demand conditions; what happens in a municipal budget squeeze?
The contradictions between models are worth flagging. Market Forces says "Tailwinds" while Secondary Signals says "Macro Headwinds" and "Lagging Sector Peers" — these can't both be the operative frame. Revenue Confidence flags "decelerating" quarterly trend, but the actual sequentials ($459→503→544→575→604) are decelerating in *percentage* terms only mildly (10%→8%→6%→5% QoQ) which for a company this size is still elite. The insider activity flagged "neutral" is generous — 10 sales vs 2 small awards in July 2026 (note: these dates are forward of the fundamentals, suggesting stale/mixed data) is a mild negative but the share counts are trivial (<2,000 shares total sold). Not a signal. The P/E of 348 and EV/EBITDA of 721 should simply be ignored per the anomaly flags — they're artifacts of near-zero denominators, not valuation inputs.
My independent read: Axon is a genuine platform business with real switching costs (evidence.com lock-in is not marketing fluff — I've validated this in prior work), and 33% revenue CAGR at $2.8B scale is rare. But the market is paying 15x sales for a business whose GAAP margins just went *negative* while competitors like Motorola Solutions trade at ~5x sales with 25% op margins. The bull case requires believing 2025's margin dip is investment-driven (AI, drones, international) and reverses to 20%+ op margins by 2027-2028. Plausible, not proven. Fair value assuming successful transition: ~$400-450 (12x forward sales on ~$3.7B 2026 revenue, with margin credit). Fair value if margin recovery slips a year: $320-360. Current $525 embeds the optimistic path plus a narrative premium of ~15-20%. I dissent modestly from the synthesis's "high conviction required" framing — that's a hold-your-nose endorsement. I'd call it a trim/wait: quality is real, price is ahead of the fundamentals by roughly a year of execution, and the setup rewards patience over conviction. The trigger to buy aggressively is a print showing operating margin back above 10% — not a further multiple compression alone, because compression without margin proof just means the thesis is breaking.
GPT Reading
What jumps out to me is not that Axon is “a SaaS story with a temporary margin wobble,” but that it has become a capital-hungrier, less cash-generative business precisely while the market still values it like a compounding software platform. Revenue is undeniably strong: the run from $374.6M in Q2’23 to $603.6M in Q1’25 is not just healthy growth, it is sustained acceleration in absolute dollars, and annual revenue rising from $1.56B in 2023 to $2.08B in 2024 to $2.78B in 2025 is elite execution. But the quality of that growth degraded sharply in 2025. Operating income swung from +$154.8M in 2023 and +$58.5M in 2024 to -$62.1M in 2025, while free cash flow was only $75.1M on $2.78B of revenue, barely 2.7%. That is not a profile I’m willing to capitalize at 15.6x sales and 13.4x book without demanding near-term evidence that the spending is discretionary and reversible. The balance sheet is fine rather than pristine: $1.20B of cash offsets part of $1.91B debt, but net debt is no longer trivial for a business with negative operating margin and modest FCF.
I agree with Opus’s core claim that the market is ahead of the fundamentals and that the absurd-looking P/E and EV/EBITDA are unusable because the denominator has collapsed. I also agree with his dismissal of the insider data as basically noise; a few hundred-share sales tell us nothing. Where I part company is on the framing of the margin decline as “the first mistake” inside an otherwise intact premium story. I think that is too forgiving. A decline from 29% net margin in Q1’24 to 14.6% in Q1’25, and from positive operating income in 2024 to an operating loss in 2025, is not just one bad step in an execution march. It is evidence that Axon’s economic model is less naturally scalable than the platform narrative assumes, at least at this stage. If this were truly software-like operating leverage asserting itself, revenue up 34% would not coincide with operating margin going to -2.2% and ROIC to -10.3%. The burden of proof is now on the bull case, not on skeptics.
Opus argues that EV/S around 15x “is defensible for a 33% grower — but only if you underwrite margin recovery,” and then lands at fair value of $420-460. I disagree on both the ease of that defense and the valuation range. Fifteen times sales is not just a growth multiple here; it is a perfection multiple for a company whose earnings power just proved highly elastic in the wrong direction. Even if 2026 revenue reached, say, $3.5B-$3.7B, paying today’s $42.35B market cap means investors are still underwriting a double-digit sales multiple on forward revenue before a clean recovery in profitability has shown up in annual numbers. That can work for a software company with 20%+ operating margins already visible. It is much harder to justify for a company that produced only $211.3M of operating cash flow and $75.1M of FCF last year. I think Opus is too generous in assuming the market only needs “a year of execution” to grow into the stock. My read is that Axon needs both sustained 25%+ growth and a restoration of at least low-teens operating margin before the current price stops looking stretched.
I do agree with Opus that the sequential revenue progression does not support the more alarmist “deceleration” label. Going from $459.9M to $503.2M to $544.3M to $575.1M to $603.6M shows a business still adding meaningful dollars each quarter. I also agree that the company likely has real switching costs and a stronger moat than a typical hardware-defense name; the problem is not whether the product set has value, but whether that moat should be monetized at a valuation richer than many best-in-class software names while current profitability trends move the wrong way. Where Opus says the trigger to buy is operating margin back above 10%, I’d be stricter: I want to see annualized FCF margin moving toward 8-10% as well, because right now capex of $136.3M is eating too much of the operating cash story. A platform thesis that cannot convert growth into cash is still a thesis, not a demonstrated model.
A careful skeptic of both my view and Opus’s would say we may be over-anchoring on one bad profitability year in a business deliberately investing through a land-grab phase, and that the right comparison is not Motorola’s mature margin profile but earlier platform transitions where temporary compression preceded much larger installed-base monetization. They would also note that Q1’25 still produced $88.0M of net income on $603.6M of revenue, so the business is hardly broken. That skeptic is right to challenge anyone calling collapse too quickly. But the same skeptic should also challenge anyone paying $525 today on faith that 2025 was merely transitory. At this valuation, “probably temporary” is not enough.
Grok Reading
grok-critique step) alongside the other Big-3 seats, when a
report is run on this ticker.
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Axon's business trajectory is exceptional on the surface: revenue compounded from $863M in 2021 to $2.78B in 2025 (roughly 34% CAGR), Altman Z of 7.7 signals no distress, and the company self-funds with $1.73B of liquid cash and $75M of FCF. The classification as high-growth profitable is fair - it has moved from operating losses in 2021 to consistent GAAP profitability, and gross margins have held in the ~60% zone consistent with a software-inflected hardware plus cloud model.
Verify before trusting this (6)
- 2025 gross margin - the table shows 0% which is clearly a data artifact; verify actual GM% and whether Sentinel/cloud mix is still expanding margin
- Reconcile 2025 operating margin -2.2% with $124.7M net income - suggests large non-operating gains or acquisition-related expense (Dedrone, Fusus deals) distorting the P&L
- Booked contract backlog / RPO and net revenue retention on Axon Cloud - the real durability signal
- Customer concentration - law enforcement agency mix and any single-customer risk
- SBC composition (RSU vs PSU) and whether grant pace is finally decelerating relative to revenue
- Any convertible or acquisition-financed debt terms behind the $176M net debt figure
Axon trades at a premium multiple that already capitalizes the bull case: unbroken 30%+ growth, universal cloud attach, and successful expansion into drones/AI. The e2e synthesis itself flags 'High Conviction Required' - code for 'the math only works if you believe the narrative.' On skeptical, quality-adjusted numbers, deserved value is materially below $525. Reason: 23% of revenue leaks out as SBC and diluted shares grow ~6%/yr, so per-share intrinsic value compounds well slower than enterprise value. Any DCF using GAAP or SBC-adjusted FCF (not adjusted EBITDA) gives a fair value in the mid-$300s to low-$400s range for this profile. What is priced in: sustained ~30% revenue CAGR for 5+ years, ARR mix continuing to lift margins, drone/AI becoming a real second leg, and no budget cycle disruption. What is not priced in: procurement slowdowns, a single competitive win by Motorola/Flock in a flagship city, or SBC finally being expensed honestly in investor models. The gap is not a rip-your-face-off short; it is simply the absence of any cushion for a business where the bear case is plausible and the bull case is already the base case.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Net new ARR growth rate and whether it is decelerating
- Cloud/services gross margin trajectory - are unit economics still improving
- Diluted share count trend and any buyback that actually offsets SBC
- Drone/Fusus segment revenue disclosure - is the second leg materializing
- Any large agency contract losses or delays in guidance commentary
Axon sits inside one of the strongest active narratives in the market right now: a durable platform-monopoly story with medium cult following and strong intensity. That story has been doing the heavy lifting on the multiple and, crucially, it is still intact - no news flow in the last 72 hours has cracked it, and the mentions that do exist frame Axon as an S&P 500 name with 'exciting potential.' In sentiment terms, silence plus a benign framing while the story is hot is itself a tailwind. The risk-off tape (VIX 18.7, S&P -2.6% off highs) and a 1.38 beta would normally punish a high-multiple, story-driven name like this hard. But the regime is only 1 day old and low-conviction, and Axon's narrative archetype (mission-critical government SaaS with switching costs) is exactly the kind of story that holds its bid during shallow risk-off episodes - defense/public-safety adjacency also helps. The pressure that IS on the name is valuation-narrative fragility: the bear framing ('euphoric multiple', 5-7 years of perfection priced in) means any crack - a budget scare, a competitive win against them, a soft print - would de-rate violently. Right now that crack has not appeared, so net pressure leans positive.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Next earnings print - any deceleration in ARR or bookings would crack the platform-monopoly story
- Any municipal/federal budget headline that questions public-safety spending growth
- Competitive wins by Motorola Solutions or Flock Safety in flagship accounts
- Whether the risk-off regime deepens beyond a 1-day nascent read - VIX above 22 would start pressuring high-multiple story names
- Analyst target revisions and any shift in sell-side tone from 'best-in-class SaaS' to valuation concerns
This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.
When we made this prediction on Jul 28, 2026, AXON was $525.48. We expect it to be $475.00 by Jan 2027, and we consider it great value under $400.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Jul 28, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.