Skip to main content
Homepage
AGING Analysis Report
Sep 17, 2026
20 days ago · 100% complete
For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page

What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Celestica Inc (CLS) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.

Our current read (analysis of 2026-10-08): Designation Low · Gem Score -30 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 39 · Value -76 · Sentiment 39 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $219.71 vs $329.94 at analysis

Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable reference-name attribute you can cite):

  • profile-header / price-overview — company profile, live quote, market cap
  • extended-analysis — the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memo
  • future-predictions — our forward price-band predictions
  • market-narrative / ai-findings / gpt-critique — narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)
  • Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers): price-history, income-trend, key-metrics, financials (statement tables), insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.

More for machine readers: site briefing at /llms.txt · any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER · raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds); every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.

Celestica Inc

CLS NYSE
Technology · Electronic Components
Toronto, ON M2N 6L7, Canada celestica.com Updated Sep 17, 5:13pm
Price
$329.94
Market Cap
$41.6B
Employees
23,803
Beta
1.46
Avg Volume
2,510,223
CEO
Mr. Robert Andrew Mionis

Celestica Inc. is a global electronics manufacturing services and supply chain solutions company that supports equipment manufacturers and service providers across a wide range of industries. Celestica Inc. provides design and engineering, electronics manufacturing, systems integration, logistics, fulfillment, and after-market services, helping customers bring complex hardware products from development to production and support. Its operations are organized around Advanced Technology Solutions and Connectivity and Cloud Solutions, serving end markets such as aerospace and defense, industrial, smart energy, health tech, capital equipment, enterprise communications, telecommunications, servers, and storage. The company plays an important role in the technology supply chain by combining hardware platform expertise with manufacturing and service capabilities for customers in North America, Asia, Europe, and other international markets.

Runs with full report Generated: Aug 22, 2026 4:20pm
Price Overview
Price at report time
$329.94
as of Sep 17, 5:13pm (20d ago)
Change · Sep 17
+6.11 (+1.89%)
Day Range
$329.52 – $353.96
52-Week Range
$227.00 – $474.03
50-Day MA
$323.86
200-Day MA
$328.66
Volume
2,028,517.00
Right now · live
Log in to get the live feed
Members see the real-time price and the move since this report (over 20d).
Share Structure
Outstanding 114,982,086.00
Float 114,010,487.00
Free Float 99.2%
High free float — 99.2% of shares trade freely, ~0.8% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Sep 17, 2026 5:20pm (20d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Sep 10, 2026 2:02am (28d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics TTM · through Jun 30, 2026
TD Twelve Data statement HEX SEC filing
Industry comparison last run: Sep 17, 2026 5:15pm
P/E · trailing (TTM) (Price per dollar of earnings over the past year — not a run-rate or forward P/E)
HEX
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
34.26
Stock Price: $329.94
EPS (Diluted): 9.63
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
HEX
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
15.43
Stock Price: $329.94
Total Equity: $2.48B
Shares: 115,933,333
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
HEX
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
24.78
Market Cap: $41.60B
Total Debt: $810.40M
Cash: $535.70M
EBITDA: $1.55B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
HEX
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$38.3B
Market Cap: $41.60B
Total Debt: $810.40M
Cash: $535.70M
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
HEX
Gross Profit / Revenue
12.0%
Gross Profit: $1.86B
Revenue: $15.59B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
HEX
Operating Income / Revenue
8.8%
Operating Income: $1.37B
Revenue: $15.59B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
HEX
Net Income / Revenue
7.2%
Net Income: $1.12B
Revenue: $15.59B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
HEX
Net Income / Total Equity
52.7%
Net Income: $1.12B
Total Equity: $2.48B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
HEX
NOPAT / Invested Capital
42.4%
Operating Income: $1.37B
Tax Rate: 14.8%
Equity: $2.48B
Total Debt: $810.40M
Cash: $535.70M
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
HEX
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
1.23
Current Assets: $7.57B
Current Liabilities: $6.18B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
HEX
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.33
Short-Term Debt: $26.40M
Long-Term Debt: $784.00M
Total Debt: $810.40M
Total Equity: $2.48B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
HEX
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$134.51
Revenue: $15.59B
Shares: 115,933,333
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
HEX
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$21.39
Total Equity: $2.48B
Shares: 115,933,333
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
HEX
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$4.47
Operating CF: $1.14B
CapEx: -$625.30M
Shares: 115,933,333
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
TD
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
—
Last Dividend: $0.00
Stock Price: $329.94
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
HEX
Dividends Paid / Net Income
—
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $1.12B
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Sep 17, 2026 5:15pm
Compares CLS against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Sep 10, 2026 2:02am (28d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $7.3B $8.0B $9.6B $12.4B
Cost of Revenue $6.6B $7.2B $8.6B $10.9B
Gross Profit $649.7M $754.1M $1.0B $1.5B
Operating Expenses $360.4M $415.8M $434.4M $453.4M
Operating Income $289.3M $338.3M $599.3M $1.0B
Net Income $180.1M $244.4M $428.0M $832.5M
EBITDA $405.2M $469.1M $751.2M $1.2B
EPS $1.46 $2.03 $3.62 $7.22
EPS (Diluted) $1.46 $2.03 $3.61 $7.16
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Sep 8, 2026 10:53am (30d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents — — $370.4M $423.3M $595.6M
Total Current Assets — — $4.5B $4.5B $5.7B
Total Assets — — $5.9B $6.0B $7.2B
Current Liabilities — — $3.2B $3.0B $3.9B
Long-Term Debt — — $648.3M $770.2M $750.5M
Total Liabilities — — $4.1B $4.1B $5.0B
Total Equity $1.5B $1.7B $1.8B $1.9B $2.2B
Retained Earnings — — -$851.8M -$423.8M $408.7M
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Sep 17, 2026 5:20pm (20d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow — $211.1M $326.2M $473.9M $659.5M
Capital Expenditure — -$109.0M -$125.1M -$170.9M -$201.2M
Free Cash Flow — $102.1M $201.1M $303.0M $458.3M
Acquisitions (net) — $0 $0 -$36.1M $0
Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) — — — — —
Dividends Paid — — — — —
Stock Buybacks — -$34.6M -$35.6M -$152.0M -$153.4M
Net Change in Cash -$69.8M -$19.5M -$4.1M — —
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Sep 10, 2026 2:02am (28d ago)
Metric 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +9.8% +21.2% +28.5%
Gross Profit Growth +16.1% +37.1% +44.5%
Operating Income Growth +16.9% +77.2% +73.7%
Net Income Growth +35.7% +75.1% +94.5%
EBITDA Growth +15.8% +60.1% +61.9%
0Company Classification 1Industry Landscape 2Company Momentum 3Forward Projection 4aDCF Valuation 4bEarnings Power Value 4cAnchored PE 4dReverse DCF 4eRevenue-Based DCF 4fAnchored P/S 4gScenario Analysis 4hDividend Discount Model 4iBook Value Analysis 4jInsider Activity 4fCash Flow Quality 4gDebt Maturity Risk 4hMacro Environment 4iSector Intelligence 4jRevenue Confidence 4kSensitivity Analysis 4lSector Demand Cycle 5AI Investigation 5bThesis Evaluation 6Valuation Synthesis
computed not applicable 18 computed · 6 not applicable
Risk : Reward — upside vs downside from this company's own quarters
Computed 2026-10-03 02:02
-0.3 : 1 +1σ upside vs −1σ downside, from this company's own quarterly history
A +1σ run of quarters pays -15%; a −1σ run costs 59%. Ratio -0.3:1 (μ 43.9%, σ 17.8% , 6 pairs).
Older method (repeat-worst-quarter): 1.1 : 1
CaseGrowthMarginFair valuevs price ($329.94)
Bull — recovery +70% 9.2% $517.49 +57%
Base — stabilizes +46% 8.0% $261.07 -21%
Bear — keeps slipping +23% 6.8% $122.11 -63%
Stress — last quarter repeats +28% 7.9% $157.86 -52%
Upside — a +1σ run of quarters (v2) +50% 7.9% $281.49 -15%
Stress — a −1σ run of quarters (v2) +26% 7.0% $136.17 -59%
The next quarters keep the trajectory of the worst recent matched quarter (ending 2025-09-30) — growth stays at 27.8% and margins bend by the same profit-vs-revenue ratio (×1.10). Stress is a trajectory, not a prediction — it answers "what if the ship's current heading simply continues," which history says is the case to respect.
Why this is appearing: this company files quarterly, so its recent trajectory could be measured rather than assumed — the engine matched Jun 2026, Mar 2026 against the same quarters one year earlier and found revenue +57.8% · operating income +82.0% · net income +95.5% year-over-year. That measured heading is what the stress case extends forward. Of those, the stress case extends the worst matched quarter — the one ending Sep 30, 2025 (revenue +27.8%, operating income +135.5% YoY) — not the average. Data measured through Jun 30, 2026 — this card recalculates automatically when the next quarterly filing is ingested. Companies without quarterly filings (many foreign listings) never show this card: with no measured trajectory, there is nothing honest to repeat.
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for CLS — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Growth Outlook
Analyzed 2026-09-17 17:23

The question every valuation on this page silently assumes: is this company likely to grow? Judged forward — the business, its category, the world — against what's already printed.

Accelerating AI datacenter networking and hardware-platform demand has CLS compounding revenue ~50-58% YoY with operating income growing faster still — genuine acceleration with a mechanism, but the market is already priced for ~60% growth that cannot persist through years 2-3. conf 8/10
Share gain Category growing · Electronic components sector is in expansion with category median recent growth of ~7.5% and industry revenue CAGR of only 2.8%; CLS is growing revenue 47-58% YoY, a >20pt gap to industry, while industry earnings actually decline -6.5% CAGR and CLS earnings roughly double.
Next 2 quarters
Accelerating
Program visibility, already-won 800G/1.6T and rack platforms, and capacity coming online support continued 40%+ YoY prints with operating income growing faster than revenue. Five consecutive EPS beats (+4% to +10%) show the company is guiding conservatively into a demand environment it does not yet have to ration.
↑ above expectations
Year 1
Growing
Full-year revenue and EPS should still land sharply higher, but the rate compresses through the back half as the company laps the initial AI ramp quarters. Margin expansion from mix and absorption likely continues, keeping earnings growth ahead of revenue growth.
↑ above expectations
Years 2–3
Growing
The structural story holds — outsourced system integration share gain is real and the industry's flat baseline makes CLS's position genuinely differentiated — but scale, competitor capacity additions, and annual price-downs argue the rate steps down from ~50% toward the high-teens/twenties. Customer concentration caps confidence on any specific rate.
↓ below expectations
The creme: each rung's call measured against what's already printed (vs analyst estimates · vs guidance / FY consensus · vs price-implied growth) — expectations in print are already in the price, so only the variant margin can pay. Hover a rung's chip for the margin read.
Growth drivers
83 Hyperscaler AI networking ramp (CCS/HPS) — The Connectivity & Cloud segment is riding a multi-generation switching upgrade (400G→800G→1.6T) plus hardware platform solutions (racks, storage, compute sleds) for a handful of very large cloud buyers. This is the mechanism behind +57.8% matched-quarter revenue and +82% operating income: volume growth plus richer, more integrated content per program. Backlog/program awards in this area are typically visible 2-4 quarters out, which is why the last five prints all beat.
68 Operating leverage / mix shift beating revenue — Operating income +82% and net income +95.5% against revenue +57.8% shows margin expansion, not just pass-through box-building. Higher design-owned and systems-integration content (HPS) carries better economics than legacy consignment EMS work, and fixed-cost absorption at higher volumes compounds it. Earnings CAGR 113.7% vs revenue CAGR 40% over the multi-year record confirms this is structural mix, not one quarter.
59 Demonstrated share gain vs a flat industry — Company YoY 28.5% vs industry 6.9% (+21.5pt gap) on a 2.8% industry revenue CAGR. CLS is not riding a tide — it is absorbing programs from OEM in-house lines and rival EMS/ODMs. Share-gain growth of this magnitude tends to persist a few years because customer qualification cycles are long and switching mid-program is costly.
26 ATS second engine recovering — Advanced Technology Solutions (aero/defense, industrial, capital equipment) provides a non-AI growth leg; defense budgets and semi-cap recovery give a secondary source of growth if cloud orders digest. Smaller and slower, but it cushions the cyclical air pocket risk.
Growth risks
74 Customer concentration on AI capex decisions — A very large share of the incremental revenue traces to a small number of hyperscale/cloud buyers. A single customer's platform re-design, insourcing decision, or capex digestion quarter can swing growth by tens of points. This is the single most important variable in the years 2-3 rung and the main reason a 60% structural rate is not underwritable.
65 Law of large numbers / decelerating comps — Revenue-confidence flags the quarterly trend as decelerating even as YoY stays high. Base effects alone mechanically compress growth: lapping +50% quarters means flat sequential revenue prints as sub-20% YoY within 18 months. Growth remains positive but the rate almost certainly steps down.
55 Structurally low-moat EMS economics — Contract manufacturing margins are negotiated annually against Foxconn, Quanta, Wistron, Jabil and Flex, all expanding AI rack capacity. Today's margin expansion is scarcity rent on qualified capacity and engineering talent; as industry capacity catches up, price-downs return. Industry earnings CAGR of -6.5% is the reminder of where this category's baseline economics sit.
46 Price-implied bar of 60% vs projected 46% — The comparator for the structural rung already assumes hyper-growth persists. Even a good outcome (20-30% compounding) undershoots what is printed, so the structural rung reads below regardless of a strong business.
20 Macro/tariff and working-capital intensity — Macro flagged as headwinds with 10y at 5; EMS growth consumes inventory and receivables, so a demand stumble hits cash before earnings. Tariff/geographic reshuffling adds cost to fast capacity adds.
The world is re-plumbing datacenters for accelerated compute, and the scarce link is not the chip but the system around it — high-radix switches, optical interconnect, liquid-cooled racks and the qualified capacity to build them at volume. Hyperscalers have responded by concentrating that work with a short list of trusted partners with design capability, which is exactly the slot CLS occupies. That is why a company inside a mature, low-margin category is printing semiconductor-like growth. The durable part is the structural rise in outsourced system integration and content per rack; the fragile part is that the buyer set is tiny and its capex cadence is lumpy. Expect the demand to stay large through the next 18 months on committed programs, then normalize as capacity catches up and price-downs resume — growth continues, but the rate reverts toward the low-to-mid twenties rather than the fifties.
Growth position composite +2
ShrinkingStallingHoldingGrowingAccelerating
90Next 2 quarters · Accelerating
70Year 1 · Growing
70Years 2–3 · Growing
+2Composite (−100…+100)
A research prediction, not advice. Forward-graded: each rung is scored against the prints that follow it. Not an input to the GEM designation — track record first.
Claude Reading
Independent analyst synthesis · claude-opus-4-7 · generated 2026-09-17 17:19:20
Verdict Overvalued at $330 — fair value $240-275 range; execution is real but the multiple prices a cycle extension that historically doesn't happen. Trim, don't short; re-enter below $260.

The raw trajectory is genuinely spectacular and hard to argue with on execution: quarterly revenue has gone $2.50B → $2.65B → $2.89B → $3.19B → $3.65B → $4.05B → $4.70B across seven quarters, an 88% cumulative lift, with net margin expanding from 3.6% to 7.8%. TTM revenue is roughly $15.6B against FY2024 $9.65B — that is a 60%+ YoY step-up, not the 47% the momentum module cites, and TTM NI near $1.12B versus $832M for FY2025 already. ROIC at 42% and ROE at 53% on a capital-light EMS base are not typical Celestica numbers — this business ran mid-single-digit ROICs for a decade. So the classification as "high-growth profitable" is defensible on the tape, but the pre-flight framing — cyclical EMS wearing a growth costume — is the more honest read.

The synthesis DCF at $229 versus $330 price is the crux, and I largely agree with its direction while questioning its precision. EV/revenue at 2.46x and EV/EBITDA at 24.8x for a contract manufacturer are historically unprecedented — traditional EMS peers (Jabil, Flex, Sanmina) trade at 0.5–1.0x sales and 8–12x EBITDA. Even generously granting that CCS/HPS mix has structurally shifted Celestica toward hyperscaler ODM work with 8%+ margins, the multiple still embeds the assumption that this margin holds and revenue compounds double-digit through 2028. Bear-side history is unambiguous: EMS margin peaks have always mean-reverted because customer concentration (Celestica's top customers are hyperscalers, deeply concentrated) grants pricing power to the buyer once the capacity crunch eases. The thesis-evaluation score of -12 with bear mass 91.6 vs bull 79.9 feels roughly right.

The contrarian pushback the models under-weight: this cycle may genuinely be different in duration, not kind. Hyperscaler capex guides for 2026 are still ramping (Meta, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN all raised), and Celestica's design-win pipeline in 800G networking and custom ASIC assembly is booked 4-6 quarters forward. If TTM run-rate holds — $4.7B × 4 = $18.8B annualized — and margins even compress to 6.5%, that's $1.22B NI, putting forward P/E near 34x, still expensive but not absurd for a name growing 40%. The Q1 2026 margin dip to 5.2% is the tell worth watching: it may be a one-quarter mix issue, or it may be the first crack. Insider activity — six sales on 2026-08-13 totaling ~23,500 shares with zero buys and only trivial option-exercise activity otherwise — reinforces the "management thinks this is peak" read, though the share counts are small enough to be routine 10b5-1 rather than conviction dumps. I wouldn't over-index on it, but combined with the 87-sales-zero-buys pattern the thesis engine flagged, it's consistent with insiders monetizing a re-rating.

I partially agree with the synthesis overvalued call but think $229 fair value is too punitive — it appears to anchor on pre-AI-cycle EMS multiples that don't account for the mix shift into HPS being real, even if cyclically amplified. My fair value lands closer to $240–275: applying 15-17x forward EBITDA (a reasonable premium to legacy EMS but discount to current 24.8x) on normalized $1.7-1.9B EBITDA gives ~$28-32B EV versus current ~$41.6B. The stock is priced for perpetual AI capex compounding; even a mild 2027 digestion phase (which is the modal EMS outcome, not a tail risk) would drop the multiple 30-40% quickly. Not a short — momentum, earnings revisions, and the fundamental trajectory are all still working — but decisively not a place to initiate. Existing holders should trim; new money should wait for either a $250 entry on a capex-scare selloff or two more quarters of margin durability at 7%+ to validate the structural thesis.

GPT Reading
Independent reading · gpt-5.4 · generated 2026-09-17 17:19:38
Verdict Overvalued at $329.94 — Celestica deserves a premium to legacy EMS multiples, but not one that assumes current hyper-growth and ~7%-8% net margins are safely durable; fair value looks closer to $250-$275.

What jumps out is not that Celestica is merely “better than a typical EMS company,” but how violently the earnings power has inflected in just two years. On a trailing basis through 2026-06-30, revenue is about $15.6B versus $9.65B for calendar 2024 and $7.96B for 2023, while net margin has climbed to 7.2% and operating margin to 8.8%—levels that are exceptional for a company the market historically would have treated as a contract manufacturer. The quarterly progression is even more striking: revenue has gone from $2.50B in 2024-09 to $4.70B in 2026-06, and the latest quarter’s $368.8M of net income is more than 4x the $89.5M posted seven quarters earlier. This is not a case of flat revenue with financial engineering; it is real top-line acceleration paired with margin expansion. Return metrics support that the improvement is substantive: 52.7% ROE and 42.4% ROIC are far too high to dismiss as just “commodity assembly” economics, even allowing for a lean equity base.

The core debate is whether those margins are structural or peak-cycle. My read is that the market is directionally right to award a premium, but has overshot badly at $329.94. Even if I use the stronger trailing window rather than the older annual data, the stock trades around 34x earnings, 2.45x sales, and 24.8x EV/EBITDA for a business with 12.0% gross margins and 7.2% net margins. Those are software-ish multiples being placed on a manufacturing model that still has manufacturing risk, customer concentration risk, and likely capex-cycle exposure. Yes, the business mix has improved, but the recent quarter’s 7.8% margin came alongside a huge revenue surge to $4.70B; that is exactly the kind of combination that investors tend to annualize too aggressively. If Celestica can sustain roughly $1.1B of TTM net income, the valuation is expensive but not insane. If margins slip back even modestly toward 5%-6% on slower growth, today’s multiple compresses fast.

What keeps me from a full-throated bear call is the balance between growth and balance-sheet discipline. Net debt is only about $181M against a $41.6B market cap, the current ratio is 1.23, and 2025 free cash flow was $458.3M after $201.2M of capex. That cash generation lagged net income, so this is not a pristine cash-conversion story, but it is solid enough that the business is not being propped up by leverage. More importantly, the scale-up is broad enough across the reported periods that it does not look like a one-quarter accounting fluke. Annual revenue rose from $7.25B in 2022 to $12.39B in 2025, while annual net income went from $180.1M to $832.5M. When a company quintuples earnings in three years, the prior multiple framework often becomes too conservative. I think that is exactly why simple “this is an EMS stock, therefore low teens P/E” logic is inadequate here.

The strongest case against my cautious stance is straightforward: the market may be seeing a genuine business-model migration before the financial statements fully explain it. If Celestica has moved into more complex, stickier, higher-value programs, then the right comparable set is not old-school low-margin EMS peers, and today’s 34x trailing P/E could compress naturally through earnings growth rather than price decline. The quarterly revenue run-rate now points to something closer to an $18B business than a $12B one, and the latest quarter’s annualized earnings power is near $1.5B. Put a 30x multiple on a credible path to $1.3B-$1.5B of annual earnings and the stock is not obviously absurd. Bulls will also note that insider sales without dollar values or ownership context are weak evidence by themselves, especially after a major rerating.

What would change my mind is either confirmation that this is truly a structurally higher-margin franchise or evidence that the feared digestion has begun. I’d turn more positive if the next two quarters hold revenue above roughly $4.2B and net margin above 7%, because that would show the latest quarter was not just a capex spike. I’d also want to see free cash flow catch up meaningfully with earnings on the next annual print. On the other hand, if quarterly revenue falls back toward the mid-$3B range or net margin retreats to 5%-6%, then the stock is far too expensive and likely deserves a much sharper derating. At $329.94, investors are paying as though the transformation is proven; the numbers show it is real, but not yet proven enough for this price.

Grok Reading
Independent reading · grok-4.5 · generated 2026-09-17 17:20:08
Verdict Overvalued at $329.94; growth and returns are real but 34× earnings / ~$230 DCF anchor price in unsustainable AI-capex duration

Celestica’s trailing twelve months through mid-2026 put roughly $15.6B of revenue on the board ($4.70B + $4.05B + $3.65B + $3.19B), up nearly 50% from the prior-year window near $10.6B, with TTM net income about $1.12B versus roughly $538M a year earlier. That is not cosmetic: annual revenue scaled from $7.25B in 2022 to $12.39B in 2025 while net income went from $180M to $833M, and the latest quarter alone printed $4.70B revenue and a 7.8% net margin. Operating margin TTM sits near 8.8% and ROIC/ROE at 42%/53%—extraordinary for an electronics manufacturing services name that historically lived on mid-single-digit operating margins and low-teens returns. Free cash flow of $458M against modest net debt (total debt $777M, cash $596M, D/E 0.33) confirms the earnings are converting. The story the raw numbers tell is a real mix and scale inflection, almost certainly AI/server and complex hardware related, not a one-quarter fluke.

At $329.94 and a $41.6B market cap the market is capitalizing that run at 34× TTM earnings, 2.45× sales, and ~25× EV/EBITDA, with a 15× book multiple on only $2.22B of equity. Those are software-ish multiples on a contract manufacturer whose gross margin is still only ~12%. Sequential revenue is still climbing hard, but the secondary signal already flags the quarterly trend as decelerating, and 40% revenue CAGR / 114% earnings CAGR cannot be the steady-state forever. The valuation synthesis fair value near $229–$229 implies the stock is embedding multi-year persistence of mid-20s-plus growth and mid-to-high single-digit margins that EMS history rarely sustains once the capex wave digests. Insider activity—clusters of sales in August 2026 with no meaningful open-market buying—aligns with management treating elevated prices as an exit, not a signal of underappreciation.

The strongest counter is straightforward: the operating leverage and returns look structural enough that “peak cycle” may be the wrong frame. Gross profit nearly doubled from 2023 to 2025 while the balance sheet stayed clean and FCF quality is adequate; if aerospace-defense and high-complexity enterprise work have permanently lifted the mix, a mid-20s earnings multiple on a still-growing $1.1B+ NI base is defensible and $330 is closer to fair than a 30% haircut. Bulls can also note that every recent quarter has beaten the prior on revenue dollars, so the deceleration label may be premature noise inside a still-accelerating absolute run-rate. I weigh that less because even structural mix improvement does not erase customer concentration and OEM capex cyclicality, and 34× / 25× EV/EBITDA already pays for several years of that improvement sticking; the premium over a ~$230 DCF anchor is pure narrative duration risk, not ignored cash flows.

What flips me is concrete: two more quarters that hold revenue above ~$4.5B with net margins stable at or above 7.5% without a sharp drop in bookings commentary would force a higher terminal growth assumption and pull fair value toward the current price; conversely, a sub-$4B revenue quarter or net margin compression back under 5% while AI server spend rhetoric cools would confirm the digestion thesis and open a path well below $250.

Qwen Reading local experiment · off-panel
Independent reading · qwen3.8:27b on the local GPU · generated 2026-09-17 17:20:40 · 31.7s (88.9 tok/s) · live briefing
Overvalued · conviction 4/5 · bull 3/10
followed the VERDICT/STANCE contract
Verdict Overvalued at $329.94; the 34x P/E multiple for a contract manufacturer is unsustainable without 30%+ sustained growth, which is not guaranteed by the current data.

The most glaring contradiction in this dataset is the disconnect between the "high growth" label and the actual quarterly trajectory. While the momentum metrics scream a 40% revenue CAGR and 113.7% earnings CAGR, the last two quarters tell a story of violent deceleration and margin compression. Revenue grew from $4.05B in Q1 2026 to $4.70B in Q2 2026, a 16% sequential jump, but net income collapsed from $212.3M to $368.8M? No, wait—looking closer, Q1 2026 NI was $212.3M and Q2 2026 NI was $368.8M. That is an increase. However, the margin *dropped* from 5.2% to 7.8%? No, 368.8/4700 is 7.8%. 212.3/4050 is 5.2%. So margins actually *expanded* sequentially. But look at the prior year: Q2 2025 had a 7.3% margin on $2.89B revenue. The current 7.8% margin is only marginally better, yet the stock is trading at a 34x P/E. The real red flag is the "recent_revenue_yoy" of 47.3%. If we compare Q2 2026 ($4.70B) to Q2 2025 ($2.89B), that is indeed ~62% growth. But the "decelerating" trend flag in the secondary signals is correct if we look at the *rate* of change. The jump from $2.65B (Q1 2025) to $2.89B (Q2 2025) was 9%. The jump from $4.05B (Q1 2026) to $4.70B (Q2 2026) is 16%. The growth is accelerating sequentially, but the *base* is getting larger. The critical issue is the valuation multiple relative to the *quality* of the earnings. A 34x P/E for a contract electronics manufacturer (EMS) is historically extreme. EMS companies like Jabil or Flex typically trade at 10-15x earnings. Celestica is trading at 2-3x its peers. This premium is entirely justified only if the "AI infrastructure" narrative is treated as a structural, non-cyclical shift. The data shows net margin expanding from 3.3% in Q1 2025 to 7.8% in Q2 2026. That is a massive improvement, but it is driven by mix shift toward high-complexity AI servers. The risk is that this is a cyclical peak in AI capex, not a permanent structural change. The 46x P/E cited in the pre-flight (likely using a different TTM window or including one-time items) vs the 34x TTM P/E in the canonical metrics suggests the market is pricing in perfection.

The strongest case against my bearish lean is the sheer velocity of the earnings growth. Earnings CAGR of 113.7% is not a typo; it is a reflection of the explosive demand for AI hardware. If Celestica can maintain even 20% growth for the next two years, the current 34x P/E compresses to a reasonable 15-20x. The balance sheet is clean: $776.5M debt vs $595.6M cash, but with $2.22B equity and a current ratio of 1.22, they are not over-leveraged. The operating cash flow of $659.5M against net income of $832.5M is a bit low (80% conversion), but free cash flow of $458.3M is solid. The insider selling is a concern—87 sales, zero buys—but in a stock that has likely tripled, insiders selling is a rational tax event, not necessarily a signal of impending doom. The "platform-monopoly" narrative is weak; Celestica is a contract manufacturer, not a platform. They have no pricing power over their customers (Nvidia, AMD, hyperscalers). They are a supplier. Suppliers do not get 34x P/E unless they are the *only* supplier. Celestica is one of several. This is the core flaw in the bull case: the market is treating a cyclical supplier as a structural winner.

What would change my mind? A quarterly report showing revenue growth above 30% YoY *and* net margin expansion above 8%. If they can sustain 8%+ margins while growing 30%+, the 34x P/E is justified. If growth slows to 15% and margins stay flat, the stock is overvalued. The key metric is the "AI infrastructure" revenue mix. If that segment grows 50%+ and drives the overall growth, the thesis holds. If it is just general electronics, the thesis fails. The current price of $329.94 implies a market cap of $41.6B. For a company with $12.4B revenue and $832M net income, that is a 3.4x P/S and 34x P/E. I am uncommitted to a buy, but I am firmly in the "overvalued" camp for new money. The risk/reward is poor. The stock has already priced in the "AI boom" scenario. Any miss in guidance or a slowdown in AI capex will trigger a multiple compression that could erase 30-40% of the value.

Experiment only: this reading is not a panel seat and feeds nothing — compare it against the Claude, GPT and Grok readings above.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Each AI above independently stated a direction (undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued) and how strongly it believes it (conviction, 0–5). We combine those into a Bull-Bear Index on a 0–10 scale: 5 is neutral, 10 is maximum bullish (undervalued at full conviction), 0 is maximum bearish. We compute the score ourselves with the same arithmetic for every seat — the models never grade their own bullishness — so the three are directly comparable. Δ shows how far each seat sits from the panel average of 1.7; a large Δ marks the dissenting voice, usually the one worth reading.
Claude claude-opus-4-7 2.0
overvalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +0.3 vs panel · self: 4.0
GPT gpt-5.4 2.0
overvalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +0.3 vs panel · self: 4.0
Grok grok-4.5 1.0
overvalued · conviction 4/5 · Δ -0.7 vs panel · self: 3.0
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-09-17 17:23:43
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality - wait for a dip 7/10
Genuine EMS transformation but priced ~30% above deserved value on peak AI-capex assumptions - wait for a real pullback.
The cruxWhether hyperscaler AI-infra capex sustains the 4% to 8.8% operating margin leap long enough to justify the $330 tape, or normalizes and compresses multiple and earnings together.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from CLS's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionShare Count Shrinking
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The four lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+39
Strong
edge √Σ 122 · risk √Σ 80 · conf 7/10

The trajectory is striking: revenue grew from $7.25B to $15.59B across the window while gross margin expanded from 9.0% to 12.0% and operating margin from 4.0% to 8.8%. Net income more than sextupled from $180M to $1.12B and FCF climbed to $518.7M TTM, all while diluted share count fell from 123.6M to 115.9M (-2.1% CAGR) with SBC at just 0.4% of revenue and buybacks running 149% of SBC. That is unusual operating leverage and unusual capital discipline for an electronics manufacturing services business, historically a commoditized, thin-margin industry.

Strengths 3
m78
Real operating leverage
Revenue up ~115% while operating margin more than doubled from 4.0% to 8.8% and net income went from $180M to $1.12B — evidence of genuine mix shift, not just top-line.
m70
Share count actually shrinking
Diluted shares down from 123.6M to 115.9M with SBC only 0.4% of revenue and buyback/SBC at 149% — per-share value is being concentrated in a sector where dilution is the norm.
m62
Clean earnings quality
OCF/NI 1.14x, accruals -0.6% of assets, Altman Z 5.64 (safe zone) — no mechanical red flags; reported earnings appear cash-backed.
Concerns 4
m45
Net debt, thin cash cushion
Net cash is -$274.7M and liquid cash is only 1.3% of market cap; balance sheet is a constraint, though $518.7M FCF comfortably services it.
m40
FCF conversion lags reported earnings
TTM FCF of $386M-$519M vs $1.12B net income — working capital is absorbing significant cash as revenue scales, worth watching in a cyclical EMS business.
m35
One-sided insider tape
63 sales for $71.6M and zero open-market buys in 12 months; Mionis a repeat seller. Not damning in a run-up, but the complete absence of buying is notable.
m40
Moat is data-implied, not structural
EMS is historically low-moat and customer-concentrated; the margin expansion likely rides AI/hyperscaler hardware demand — durability of the mix shift is the key open question.
This looks like a genuine transformation, not financial engineering. An EMS company going from 4% to 8.8% operating margins while buying back stock and keeping SBC negligible is rare, and the earnings-quality checks back the numbers. My hesitation is structural, not forensic: EMS is a cyclical, concentration-heavy business, and the leap in profitability almost certainly rides a specific end-market wave (AI infrastructure) whose durability I cannot verify from this data. The insider tape is one-directional but not extreme for a stock that has clearly performed. I grade this a Strong business — solidly healthy today, but not fortress because the moat is circumstantial.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Customer concentration in the 10-K — how much of revenue and margin uplift is tied to a handful of hyperscaler/AI infrastructure customers
  • Segment mix: CCS (Connectivity and Cloud Solutions) vs ATS growth and margin contribution
  • Working capital dynamics — inventory and receivables buildup explaining NI-to-FCF gap
  • Debt maturity schedule and covenants given -$274.7M net cash position
  • Whether insider sales are 10b5-1 scheduled or discretionary
Valuation / Mispricing
-76
Rich
edge √Σ 20 · risk √Σ 119 · conf 7/10
Price $329.94 vs deserved ~$230, roughly 30% above fair - no margin of safety, priced for the bull case. attractive below $230.00

The composite fair value of $219.71 and signal-adjusted $229.05 sit roughly 30% below the $329.94 price, and the two more conservative methods (DCF $111.29, EPV $43.58) imply the market is paying multiples of the cash-flow-based worth of the business as it stands. Only the anchored-PE method ($440.41) supports today's price, and it does so by extrapolating current peak-cycle earnings power onto a historically thin-margin EMS multiple - exactly the assumption that has burned this sector before. Quality is genuinely better (op margins 4% to ~8.8%, buybacks, clean earnings), which lifts deserved value above the DCF/EPV floors, but not to $330. A reasonable quality-adjusted deserved range is roughly $210-260. The gap is not a screaming short - the business is compounding and the AI/hyperscaler tailwind is real - but the price already bakes in continued mix shift, sustained double-digit growth, and no cyclical give-back. Earnings quality is high, so no haircut; the issue is purely that expectations embedded in the price are demanding.

Cheap signals 1
m20
Quality genuinely improved
Clean earnings (quality score 3), buybacks, negligible SBC, and margin doubling justify a deserved value above pure DCF - lifts fair range, but not to $330.
Rich / priced-in 4
m70
~30% premium to composite fair value
Signal-adjusted FV $229.05 vs $329.94 price implies -31% upside; three of four methods sit at or below fair value.
m65
DCF and EPV far below price
DCF $111.29 and EPV floor $43.58 suggest the standalone cash-flow economics do not support anything near $330; you are paying for growth and margin durability, not current earnings power.
m55
Only anchored-PE supports the tape
Anchored-PE $440.41 is the sole method above price and relies on current peak-cycle EPS being the new normal - a heroic assumption in cyclical EMS.
m45
Cyclical concentration risk not priced
Margin leap ties to hyperscaler/AI infrastructure spend; a normalization in that end-market would compress both multiple and earnings simultaneously.
I like the business more than I did two years ago, but I do not like the price. At $329.94 I am being asked to underwrite that peak AI-infra margins persist and grow - the composite says fair is closer to $229 and the cash-based methods are far lower. High quality earnings prevent me from haircutting further, but they do not turn a 30% premium into a bargain. I would want it in the low $230s or below before I got interested, and I would treat any hyperscaler capex wobble as the moment to reassess.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Hyperscaler customer concentration and revenue mix in latest 10-Q/AIF
  • Guided operating margin trajectory and whether CCS segment margins are structural or cycle-linked
  • Backlog/book-to-bill trends and any commentary on 2026 AI capex from top customers
  • Share count trajectory and remaining buyback authorization
General Sentiment
+39
Tailwind
tail √Σ 111 · head √Σ 70 · conf 6/10

CLS is riding the strongest active narrative in the market right now: AI server and interconnect buildout. Broadcom's 2.5x AI interconnect disclosure directly lifted the name, and momentum is decisively strong (40% CAGR, recent 47% run) with heavy retail search interest per Zacks. That is a real tailwind pressing the stock regardless of DCF fair value. The CFO transition news is being framed constructively (elevation of the finance chief to a growth-facing role), and an October 27 Investor Day sits as a near catalyst that is already pulling buyers forward.

Tailwinds 3
m78
AI-infrastructure narrative pull
CLS is a direct read-through on Broadcom/AI server capex; the platform-monopoly framing plus hyperscaler manufacturing exposure is the single biggest force on the tape and it is pointed up.
m65
Strong price momentum and retail attention
40% CAGR with recent acceleration and Zacks 'heavily searched' status create reflexive buying; momentum stocks in a hot theme keep bid as long as the theme holds.
m45
Investor Day catalyst pull
October 27 Investor Day is already being front-run (Sept 8 gap up cited it); positioning into a known catalyst in a hot name skews upward.
Headwinds 3
m55
Risk-off tape amplified by 1.46 beta
VIX 17.7 and S&P off highs hit high-beta AI-adjacent names hardest; the 8.8% Sept 14 airpocket and 5% Sept 2 drop with no news show how quickly this name gets marked down on any de-risking.
m35
Narrative-vs-fundamentals gap
Trading 44% above DCF anchor means sentiment is doing the work; any crack in AI capex enthusiasm removes the premium fast, and durability of the story is only 'moderate.'
m25
Rates/valuation backdrop
10y at 5% and market PE 24.6 is a mild ambient drag on long-duration growth-adjacent names, but CLS's earnings visibility softens it.
Net tailwind. The AI-server narrative is the dominant force on this ticker and it is actively pulling capital in, with momentum and a near catalyst reinforcing it. The risk-off tape is a real counterweight because a 1.46 beta AI-adjacent name will get whipped on any de-risking day, but the story is still intact and the flow is still constructive. I lean tailwind with medium conviction; this is a narrative-driven name, so watch the story, not the multiple.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • October 27 Investor Day tone and any FY guide raise
  • Any hyperscaler or Broadcom capex commentary shift
  • Whether VIX pushes above 20 and drags high-beta AI names into a rotation
  • Sell-side target revisions post-CFO transition
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
Growth Outlook
+2
Accelerating
edge √Σ 125 · risk √Σ 123 · conf 8/10

The world is re-plumbing datacenters for accelerated compute, and the scarce link is not the chip but the system around it — high-radix switches, optical interconnect, liquid-cooled racks and the qualified capacity to build them at volume. Hyperscalers have responded by concentrating that work with a short list of trusted partners with design capability, which is exactly the slot CLS occupies. That is why a company inside a mature, low-margin category is printing semiconductor-like growth. The durable part is the structural rise in outsourced system integration and content per rack; the fragile part is that the buyer set is tiny and its capex cadence is lumpy. Expect the demand to stay large through the next 18 months on committed programs, then normalize as capacity catches up and price-downs resume — growth continues, but the rate reverts toward the low-to-mid twenties rather than the fifties.

Growth drivers 4
m83
Hyperscaler AI networking ramp (CCS/HPS)
The Connectivity & Cloud segment is riding a multi-generation switching upgrade (400G→800G→1.6T) plus hardware platform solutions (racks, storage, compute sleds) for a handful of very large cloud buyers. This is the mechanism behind +57.8% matched-quarter revenue and +82% operating income: volume growth plus richer, more integrated content per program. Backlog/program awards in this area are typically visible 2-4 quarters out, which is why the last five prints all beat.
m68
Operating leverage / mix shift beating revenue
Operating income +82% and net income +95.5% against revenue +57.8% shows margin expansion, not just pass-through box-building. Higher design-owned and systems-integration content (HPS) carries better economics than legacy consignment EMS work, and fixed-cost absorption at higher volumes compounds it. Earnings CAGR 113.7% vs revenue CAGR 40% over the multi-year record confirms this is structural mix, not one quarter.
m59
Demonstrated share gain vs a flat industry
Company YoY 28.5% vs industry 6.9% (+21.5pt gap) on a 2.8% industry revenue CAGR. CLS is not riding a tide — it is absorbing programs from OEM in-house lines and rival EMS/ODMs. Share-gain growth of this magnitude tends to persist a few years because customer qualification cycles are long and switching mid-program is costly.
m26
ATS second engine recovering
Advanced Technology Solutions (aero/defense, industrial, capital equipment) provides a non-AI growth leg; defense budgets and semi-cap recovery give a secondary source of growth if cloud orders digest. Smaller and slower, but it cushions the cyclical air pocket risk.
Growth risks 5
m74
Customer concentration on AI capex decisions
A very large share of the incremental revenue traces to a small number of hyperscale/cloud buyers. A single customer's platform re-design, insourcing decision, or capex digestion quarter can swing growth by tens of points. This is the single most important variable in the years 2-3 rung and the main reason a 60% structural rate is not underwritable.
m65
Law of large numbers / decelerating comps
Revenue-confidence flags the quarterly trend as decelerating even as YoY stays high. Base effects alone mechanically compress growth: lapping +50% quarters means flat sequential revenue prints as sub-20% YoY within 18 months. Growth remains positive but the rate almost certainly steps down.
m55
Structurally low-moat EMS economics
Contract manufacturing margins are negotiated annually against Foxconn, Quanta, Wistron, Jabil and Flex, all expanding AI rack capacity. Today's margin expansion is scarcity rent on qualified capacity and engineering talent; as industry capacity catches up, price-downs return. Industry earnings CAGR of -6.5% is the reminder of where this category's baseline economics sit.
m46
Price-implied bar of 60% vs projected 46%
The comparator for the structural rung already assumes hyper-growth persists. Even a good outcome (20-30% compounding) undershoots what is printed, so the structural rung reads below regardless of a strong business.
m20
Macro/tariff and working-capital intensity
Macro flagged as headwinds with 10y at 5; EMS growth consumes inventory and receivables, so a demand stumble hits cash before earnings. Tariff/geographic reshuffling adds cost to fast capacity adds.
vs expectations: ~6m above · 1y above · 2-3y below
The forward growth verdict — is the business itself likely to grow (next 2 quarters / year 1 / years 2–3), judged against its category and against printed expectations. The full horizon ladder + creme renders on the Growth Outlook card above. Not a call on the price (Valuation owns that) or the tape (Sentiment owns that).
Please log in to view trade setups
The Augustus trade-setup read is a members feature.
Log in
Lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure), and Growth Outlook (the forward growth verdict). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Price Prediction
Lower -11.3% v0.6.0 View full prediction →

When we made this prediction on Sep 19, 2026, CLS was $332.49. We expect it to be $295.00 by Mar 2027, and we consider it great value under $230.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Sep 19, 2026.

Price when predicted$332.49
Our estimate for Mar 2027$295.00-11.3%
Great value below$230.00
Price history shown (6 Months)

Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.

Community AI Feedback
No community reviews yet for CLS. Be the first — hit How to Contribute, have any AI review this page, and paste its take back here.
My Notes personal — only you see this
v1.1.760 · f4b58a28 · 2026-10-07 20:07:48