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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Celestica Inc. (CLS) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Low · Gem Score -20 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 55 · Value -82 · Sentiment 43 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $212.66 vs $296.55 at analysis
Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable
reference-name attribute you can cite):
profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
price-history,income-trend,key-metrics,financials(statement tables),insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.
More for machine readers: site briefing at
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any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER ·
raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds);
every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.
Celestica Inc.
CLS NYSECelestica Inc. is a global provider of supply chain solutions and electronic manufacturing services for equipment manufacturers and service providers. The company supports customers across advanced technology and cloud-connected markets through two main business segments: Advanced Technology Solutions and Connectivity & Cloud Solutions. Its services include product design and development, engineering, component sourcing, electronics assembly, testing, systems integration, logistics, asset management, and after-market repair and return support. Celestica serves industries such as aerospace and defense, industrial, health tech, capital equipment, communications, enterprise computing, servers, and storage. Based in Toronto, Canada, Celestica plays an important role in helping customers manage complex product lifecycles and deliver specialized technology hardware across global markets.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 7.16
Total Equity: $2.22B
Shares: 116,200,000
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $595.60M
EBITDA: $1.22B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $595.60M
Revenue: $12.39B
Revenue: $12.39B
Revenue: $12.39B
Total Equity: $2.22B
Tax Rate: 15.3%
Equity: $2.22B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $595.60M
Current Liabilities: $3.94B
Long-Term Debt: $0.00
Total Debt: $0.00
Total Equity: $2.22B
Shares: 116,200,000
Shares: 116,200,000
CapEx: -$201.20M
Shares: 116,200,000
Stock Price: $296.55
Net Income: $832.50M
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 22, 2026 4:28pm (1d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.3B | $8.0B | $9.6B | $12.4B |
| Cost of Revenue | $6.6B | $7.2B | $8.6B | $10.9B |
| Gross Profit | $649.7M | $754.1M | $1.0B | $1.5B |
| Operating Expenses | $360.4M | $415.8M | $434.4M | $453.4M |
| Operating Income | $289.3M | $338.3M | $599.3M | $1.0B |
| Net Income | $180.1M | $244.4M | $428.0M | $832.5M |
| EBITDA | $405.2M | $469.1M | $751.2M | $1.2B |
| EPS | $1.46 | $2.03 | $3.62 | $7.22 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $1.46 | $2.03 | $3.61 | $7.16 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 22, 2026 4:11pm (1d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | — | — | $370.4M | $423.3M | $595.6M |
| Total Current Assets | — | — | $4.5B | $4.5B | $5.7B |
| Total Assets | — | — | $5.9B | $6.0B | $7.2B |
| Current Liabilities | — | — | $3.2B | $3.0B | $3.9B |
| Long-Term Debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total Liabilities | — | — | $4.1B | $4.1B | $5.0B |
| Total Equity | $1.5B | $1.7B | $1.8B | $1.9B | $2.2B |
| Retained Earnings | — | — | -$851.8M | -$423.8M | $408.7M |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 22, 2026 4:28pm (1d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | — | $211.1M | $326.2M | $473.9M | $659.5M |
| Capital Expenditure | — | -$109.0M | -$125.1M | -$170.9M | -$201.2M |
| Free Cash Flow | — | $102.1M | $201.1M | $303.0M | $458.3M |
| Acquisitions (net) | — | $0 | $0 | -$36.1M | $0 |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividends Paid | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stock Buybacks | — | -$34.6M | -$35.6M | -$152.0M | -$153.4M |
| Net Change in Cash | -$69.8M | -$19.5M | -$4.1M | — | — |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 22, 2026 4:28pm (1d ago)| Metric | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +9.8% | +21.2% | +28.5% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +16.1% | +37.1% | +44.5% |
| Operating Income Growth | +16.9% | +77.2% | +73.7% |
| Net Income Growth | +35.7% | +75.1% | +94.5% |
| EBITDA Growth | +15.8% | +60.1% | +61.9% |
Deep Analysis
Risk : Reward — if the last quarter repeats
Live · as of 2026-08-22 16:38Recovery pays +15%; another quarter like the worst recent one costs 49%. Ratio 0.3:1.
| Case | Growth | Margin | Fair value | vs price ($296.55) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull — recovery | +54% | 9.2% | $341.90 | +15% |
| Base — stabilizes | +36% | 8.0% | $191.34 | -35% |
| Bear — keeps slipping | +18% | 6.8% | $101.59 | -66% |
| Stress — last quarter repeats | +28% | 7.9% | $152.65 | -49% |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Growth Outlook
Analyzed 2026-08-22 16:37The question every valuation on this page silently assumes: is this company likely to grow? Judged forward — the business, its category, the world — against what's already printed.
Claude Reading
The raw trajectory is genuinely arresting: quarterly revenue has gone $2.50B → $2.65B → $2.89B → $3.19B → $3.65B → $4.05B → $4.70B across seven quarters, and Q2/26 revenue of $4.70B is up 88% YoY versus Q2/25's $2.89B. Net income at $368.8M in the most recent quarter is up 75% YoY with margin expanding from 7.3% to 7.8%. TTM revenue is now roughly $15.6B versus 2024's $9.65B — this is not a normal EMS company's growth curve; it's ODM Networking / hyperscale AI hardware pass-through economics. The 40%+ incremental ROIC and 12% gross margins are the tell: this is still low-gross-margin contract work, but the operating leverage on a fixed SG&A base against 25%+ organic growth is doing extraordinary things to the bottom line. Free cash flow at $458M on $832M of net income is a yellow flag — working capital is consuming ~45% of earnings, exactly what you'd expect from an EMS scaling into a build cycle.
The synthesis models are talking past each other, and the "slight upside" verdict (+9.4% to $324) leans heavily on a signal adjustment that magically inflates a $213 composite fair value by 53%. That's not analysis, that's fudge. The pre-flight thesis is directionally correct: the market is paying 41x earnings for a business whose historical peers (Flex, Jabil, Sanmina) trade at 12-18x through cycles because EMS earnings mean-revert violently when hyperscale capex digests. Market Forces gets closer to truth than the synthesis: insider selling on 8/13 across at least six sellers with no offsetting open-market buys, combined with Q1/26's margin compression to 5.2% (a real wobble amid the growth), suggests those closest to the numbers see a peak. The Narrative layer's claim that price sits 8.6% below DCF is only true if you extrapolate current growth — take out AI-related acceleration and the DCF collapses.
A contrarian bear argument: normalize CLS to 15x forward earnings on a mid-cycle NI of roughly $1.1B (assume 2026 finishes near $1.2-1.3B, then cyclical decay), you get a $16-18B market cap versus today's $37.4B — implying 50%+ downside in a hyperscale capex pause. The historical EMS drawdown pattern is 40-60% peak-to-trough; CLS itself traded under $10 as recently as 2022. Conversely, the bull argument is that Celestica's Hardware Platform Solutions segment has genuine differentiation in 400G/800G networking for a handful of hyperscaler customers, that customer concentration cuts both ways (sticky programs, multi-year design wins), and that if the AI infrastructure buildout runs another 3-4 years, $6B+ quarterly runrates and $2B+ annual NI are conceivable — making today's price look cheap. Which one you believe depends entirely on hyperscale capex trajectory through 2027, measured by Meta/Microsoft/Google/Amazon capex guides.
Data quality concerns: the 2026 dates in the quarterly file suggest we're actually looking at forward/estimated quarters or the file is mislabeled — this matters because a real Q2/26 print at $4.70B is materially different from a consensus estimate. Debt is listed as "—" with D/E of 0, which is implausible for an EMS company; CLS carries real working-capital debt facilities and this omission distorts the EV/EBITDA of 27.6x (probably understated). Insider identities are anonymized ("?"), preventing distinction between routine 10b5-1 vesting sales versus discretionary CFO/CEO exits — the 8/13 cluster of six sales same-day looks programmatic but I can't confirm. I dissent from the synthesis "slight upside" verdict: the composite fair value of $213 is the honest read; the signal-adjusted $324 is post-hoc rationalization of momentum. Fair value is $180-220 for a cyclical business earning peak margins with insiders distributing at 41x. I'd wait for either a $200 handle or evidence that AI capex extends through 2027 before committing.
GPT Reading
What jumps out is not just that Celestica is growing fast, but that the earnings model has inflected much harder than a typical EMS business should. Revenue has gone from $7.96B in 2023 to $9.65B in 2024 and $12.39B in 2025, and the quarterly run-rate has now reached $4.70B in the June 2026 quarter. On the last twelve months implied by the last four quarters, revenue is about $15.6B and net income about $1.12B, which means the stock at $37.4B market cap is trading closer to 33x trailing earnings, not the 41x annual metric anchored on 2025. That is still expensive for a manufacturer, but the underlying business is also no longer behaving like a plain-vanilla low-margin assembler. Net margin has stepped from 3.6% in 3Q24 to 6.0% in 4Q24, dipped to 3.3% in 1Q25, then settled into a much higher band of 7.3%-8.4% for most of the last five quarters, with 7.8% in the latest quarter on 62.6% y/y revenue growth. For a company with 12.1% gross margin and 8.4% operating margin in 2025, that says mix and operating discipline have improved dramatically.
The balance sheet and cash generation make the story more credible. With $595.6M of cash, no reported debt, $659.5M of operating cash flow, and $458.3M of free cash flow in 2025, Celestica is not borrowing to manufacture growth. Return metrics are eye-popping: 37.6% ROE and 54.4% ROIC. Some of that is helped by a small equity base of $2.22B, which also explains the optically extreme 15.5x book value, but it still tells you this is an asset-efficient model right now. The market is paying 2.8x sales and 27.6x EV/EBITDA for a business whose revenue base has compounded at roughly 25% and whose earnings have more than tripled in two years. That is a premium, but not an irrational one if the current earnings power is durable. My read is that the shares are expensive on old-category labels and reasonable on current trajectory; this is one of the few manufacturers where the multiple compression risk is partially offset by the possibility that consensus is still behind the earnings curve.
The best case against that view is straightforward: this is still EMS, and EMS usually mean-reverts. Gross margin at 12.1% is not software-like or even industrial-moen-like; it is still fundamentally a thin-margin production business. A lot of the apparent magic sits below the gross line, which can reverse if customer concentration, mix, pricing, or utilization moves against them. The quarterly pattern also shows volatility: net margin swung from 3.3% in 1Q25 to 8.4% in 3Q25, then 5.2% in 1Q26 before rebounding to 7.8%. That is not a clean annuity. If hyperscale AI infrastructure demand cools, Celestica could find itself valued at over 2.5x sales and 30x-ish earnings for what the market suddenly rediscovers is a cyclical contractor. The insider tape matters too: clustered sales in August 2026 are not definitive, but they are exactly what skeptics would expect near a rich valuation.
I weigh those objections seriously, but not enough to turn bearish here because the income statement progression is too strong to dismiss as a one-quarter distortion. Comparing June 2026 to June 2025, revenue rose from $2.89B to $4.70B while net income rose from $211M to $368.8M; that is scale with margin preservation, not growth bought at the expense of profitability. If I annualize the latest quarter, you get roughly $1.48B of earnings power, which would put the stock near 25x run-rate earnings. That multiple is not cheap, but it is supportable for a debt-free company growing revenue near 30%-60% and earning mid-to-high single-digit net margins. The main issue is that the stock is no bargain after what appears to be a huge rerating; I can justify today’s price more easily than I can justify a much higher one absent further proof that this margin structure is structural.
What would change my mind is specific. If quarterly revenue falls back toward the low-$4B area while net margin slips under 6%, the market will likely stop capitalizing Celestica as a transformed compounder and start valuing it as an over-earning cycle beneficiary. Conversely, if the next two quarters sustain at least $4.5B revenue and roughly 7.5%-8.0% net margin, then annual earnings power above $1.4B becomes real and $300 will look fair rather than stretched. For now I think the stock is around fair value, with a slight positive bias only because the trailing reported valuation metrics understate the current earnings base.
Grok Reading
The raw trajectory is unmistakable: Celestica has gone from a $7–8B EMS franchise to a $12.4B run-rate business in three years, and the last six quarters show no plateau—revenue stepped from $2.55B to $4.70B with Q2 2026 alone printing $368.8M of net income at a 7.8% margin. Annual NI more than tripled from $244M in 2023 to $833M in 2025 while free cash flow hit $458M against only $201M of capex, and the balance sheet carries zero reported debt against $596M cash and a 54% ROIC. That is not legacy contract-manufacturing economics; something structural—AI server and hyperscale complex-assembly mix—has lifted both growth and returns far above the old Celestica baseline. The 24.8% revenue CAGR and 84.6% earnings CAGR are real, not model artifacts.
What the multiple is saying is more aggressive. At $296.55 the stock trades 41× trailing earnings, 2.8× sales, 28× EV/EBITDA and 15.5× book—roughly triple the historical EMS band of 10–15× earnings—for a business that still clears only 12% gross margin and mid-single-digit to high-single-digit net margins. Operating cash conversion is solid but not exceptional (OCF $660M on $833M NI), and the secondary tape already flags decelerating quarterly revenue confidence plus a cluster of insider sales in August 2026. The market is capitalizing today’s AI-driven step-change as if 40%+ ROIC and 25%+ top-line growth are the new steady state rather than a cyclical peak in data-center build-out. That is the contradiction the models under-weight: the income statement is excellent; the price assumes permanence.
The strongest counter-argument is simply the run-rate math. Two quarters of 2026 already annualize near $17–18B of revenue if sequential momentum holds, which would drop the forward P/S toward 2× and the earnings multiple into the mid-20s even without further margin expansion. Zero leverage, 37% ROE, and FCF CAGR above 50% give the bull case real ballast, and the valuation synthesis’s signal-adjusted $325 fair value sits modestly above the current print. A smart opponent would also note that program stickiness in high-complexity AI racks can lock in share for several years, delaying the classic EMS mean-reversion. Those points keep me from a hard short; they do not erase the fact that every prior EMS upcycle has eventually handed back the multiple when capex paused.
I would flip constructive on a clean print that shows sequential revenue still growing double-digits with net margin holding above 7% into late 2026, or on any evidence that non-AI industrial and aerospace mix is offsetting hyperscale concentration. I would turn decisively negative on a sub-10% sequential revenue deceleration accompanied by margin compression back toward 5%, or on guidance that implies AI-related programs are peaking.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
The trajectory is striking: revenue scaled from 7.25B to 12.39B across 2022-2025 (roughly 20% CAGR), while gross margin expanded from 9.0% to 12.1% and operating margin more than doubled from 4.0% to 8.4%. Net income quadrupled (180M to 832M) and FCF climbed from ~0 to 303M. This is real operating leverage in a historically thin-margin EMS industry, not accounting alchemy — OCF/NI of 1.1x and accruals at 0.1% of assets confirm earnings are cash-backed. Altman Z of 7.05 signals no solvency concern. Balance sheet holds 595.6M net cash with 458.3M annual FCF, so the business is self-funding and has meaningful cushion. Capital allocation is disciplined for the sector: diluted share count fell from 123.6M to 116.2M (-2% CAGR), SBC is a modest 0.5% of revenue, and buybacks run 160.7% of SBC — per-share value is being concentrated. The main soft spots are structural to the industry (EMS is inherently cyclical, customer-concentrated, and lower-moat than the numbers currently suggest) and behavioral (insider tape shows 87 sales / 0 buys for 80M — heavy one-way selling into strength, consistent with the run but not a vote of long-term conviction from management). Nothing in the mechanical checks flags manipulation, but the durability of the margin step-up (likely AI/hyperscaler-driven CCS mix) is unproven through a downcycle.
Verify before trusting this (6)
- Customer concentration disclosure — % of revenue from top 1-3 customers and any hyperscaler exposure
- Segment mix (CCS vs ATS) and whether margin expansion is concentrated in a single program family
- Working capital dynamics — inventory and receivables days versus revenue growth to confirm FCF is not being flattered
- Details on 10b5-1 plans behind the Mionis and other insider sales
- Any off-balance-sheet financing, receivables factoring, or supply-chain finance programs that could distort OCF
- Debt maturity schedule and covenants despite the net cash position
The e2e composite FV of $212.66 sits ~28% below the $296.55 price, and the signal-adjusted FV of $324.54 (only ~9% upside) leans heavily on an anchored-PE of $484 that assumes today's peak EMS margins persist and get a premium multiple. Strip that out and the fundamentals-anchored methods are brutal: DCF $71 and EPV floor $42 both say the cash-generative core is worth a fraction of the tape. Even weighting generously toward the growth/AI narrative, deserved value lands somewhere in the $180-230 zone.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Whether the 8.4% operating margin is sustainable or peak-cycle - segment mix between hyperscaler ATS and legacy CCS
- Customer concentration disclosure (top-2 hyperscaler share of revenue)
- Forward guidance on AI-server backlog duration and pricing
- Any book-to-bill or inventory build signals of a cycle top
The tape is mildly risk-on (regime +32, VIX 15) and CLS's 1.52 beta means it captures more than its share of any positive drift. More importantly, the active narrative flow this week is explicitly casting Celestica as an AI data-center infrastructure play alongside Dell, Vertiv, and Lumentum - a picks-and-shovels framing that is currently the market's favorite way to express AI without paying semi multiples. That is a genuine, if low-intensity, tailwind landing directly on this name. Momentum confirms it: 24.8% CAGR, strong positive trend, and price sitting near an anchor of 296.55 tells you the tape has already been rewarding the story. What keeps this from being a Strong Tailwind is the narrative's own character: quiet-quality, minimal intensity, low cult. There is no mania to ride and no analyst upgrade cycle visible in the brief - just steady, favorable positioning. Macro is a mild offset (10y at 4.69%, market PE 25.7) but CLS's profile - profitable, cash-generative, industrial-tech - is not the kind of high-duration story that gets punished by rates. Net: the forces pushing this stock are more up than down, but gently.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Whether the AI data-center narrative bucket keeps getting fresh sell-side notes or starts to fade as capex normalization worries resurface
- Any semi/hyperscaler capex guide-down that would break the picks-and-shovels framing
- Beta behavior on the next real risk-off day - a 1.52 beta cuts both ways
- Analyst target revisions: are numbers being raised alongside the narrative, or is price running ahead of estimates
The world is spending on AI infrastructure at a rate no historical capex cycle matches, and the assembly/integration layer — racks, switches, power, thermal — is the physical bottleneck. Celestica sits exactly there, and reshoring/regional-supply-chain policy adds a second, slower tailwind. Against that: 10y at 4.69% and a macro-headwind backdrop raise the cost of the debt-funded portion of datacenter build-outs, and industry-level earnings decline (-8.4% CAGR) is a reminder that this is a cyclical component world where the current boom is an exception, not the baseline. The durable question is not whether AI demand exists but whether hyperscalers keep outsourcing the box rather than pulling it in-house or pushing value into silicon they buy directly.
When we made this prediction on Aug 23, 2026, CLS was $296.55. We expect it to be $265.00 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $210.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 23, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.