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AGING Analysis Report
Aug 29, 2026
23 days ago · 100% complete
SEC data is missing this company's latest quarter
SEC data is missing this company's latest quarter: the SEC's companyfacts (refetched) ends at 2026-03-31 while its index lists a statement period 2026-06-30 — the SEC's aggregation omitted the filing; not recoverable from any archive we read Found by the Foundation Sweep four-quarter pass 2026-09-11; held under the four-quarter coverage policy (2026-09-11) and released automatically once the pass resolves it.
This page shows our last published analysis, from Aug 29, 2026. It is not being updated, and new reports can't be run for this company.
For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page

What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for DTE Energy Company (DTE) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.

Our current read (analysis of 2026-09-11): Designation Low · Gem Score -30 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 26 · Value -67 · Sentiment -26 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $82.46 vs $135.82 at analysis

Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable reference-name attribute you can cite):

  • profile-header / price-overview — company profile, live quote, market cap
  • extended-analysisthe core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memo
  • future-predictions — our forward price-band predictions
  • market-narrative / ai-findings / gpt-critique — narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)
  • Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers): price-history, income-trend, key-metrics, financials (statement tables), insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.

More for machine readers: site briefing at /llms.txt · any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER · raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds); every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.

DTE Energy Company

DTE NYSE
Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Electric
Detroit, MI 48226-1221, United States dteenergy.com Updated Aug 28, 4:14pm
Price
$135.88
Market Cap
$28.3B
Employees
9,592
Beta
0.40
Avg Volume
1,327,486
Last Dividend
$4.59
CEO
Ms. Joi M. Harris

DTE Energy Company is a Detroit-based diversified energy company that provides essential electric and natural gas utility services across Michigan. DTE Energy’s regulated operations include electricity generation, purchase, transmission, distribution, and sales, as well as natural gas procurement, storage, transportation, distribution, and sales for residential, commercial, and industrial customers. Beyond its core utilities, the company operates businesses focused on renewable energy, renewable natural gas, industrial energy solutions, and energy marketing and trading. These segments position DTE Energy as a major regional energy provider with a broad role in supporting household, business, and industrial energy needs. Headquartered in Detroit, Michigan, DTE Energy serves as a key utility and infrastructure company in the U.S. energy market.

Runs with full report Generated: Aug 29, 2026 4:40am
Price Overview
Price at report time
$135.82
as of Aug 29, 4:30am (23d ago)
Change · Aug 29
-0.42 (-0.31%)
Day Range
$135.30 – $137.23
52-Week Range
$126.23 – $155.75
50-Day MA
$144.84
200-Day MA
$141.55
Volume
2,000,502.00
Right now · live
Log in to get the live feed
Members see the real-time price and the move since this report (over 23d).
Share Structure
Outstanding 208,088,069.00
Float 206,941,504.00
Free Float 99.4%
High free float — 99.4% of shares trade freely, ~0.6% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Aug 29, 2026 4:53am (23d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Aug 29, 2026 4:40am (23d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
TD Twelve Data statement HEX SEC filing
Industry comparison last run: Aug 29, 2026 4:37am
P/E · trailing (TTM) (Price per dollar of earnings over the past year — not a run-rate or forward P/E)
HEX
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
19.32
Stock Price: $135.88
EPS (Diluted): 7.03
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
HEX
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
2.28
Stock Price: $135.88
Total Equity: $12.31B
Shares: 207,000,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
HEX
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
12.79
Market Cap: $28.35B
Total Debt: $26.02B
Cash: $208.00M
EBITDA: $4.22B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
HEX
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$53.9B
Market Cap: $28.35B
Total Debt: $26.02B
Cash: $208.00M
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
HEX
Gross Profit / Revenue
Gross Profit: N/A
Revenue: $15.81B
Missing from API: Gross Profit
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
HEX
Operating Income / Revenue
15.0%
Operating Income: $2.37B
Revenue: $15.81B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
HEX
Net Income / Revenue
9.2%
Net Income: $1.46B
Revenue: $15.81B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
HEX
Net Income / Total Equity
11.9%
Net Income: $1.46B
Total Equity: $12.31B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
HEX
NOPAT / Invested Capital
5.9%
Operating Income: $2.37B
Tax Rate: 5.7%
Equity: $12.31B
Total Debt: $26.02B
Cash: $208.00M
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
HEX
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
0.80
Current Assets: $4.35B
Current Liabilities: $5.41B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
HEX
Total Debt / Total Equity
2.11
Short-Term Debt: $2.24B
Long-Term Debt: $23.79B
Total Debt: $26.02B
Total Equity: $12.31B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
HEX
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$76.40
Revenue: $15.81B
Shares: 207,000,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
HEX
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$59.46
Total Equity: $12.31B
Shares: 207,000,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
HEX
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$16.47
Operating CF: $3.41B
CapEx: $0.00
Shares: 207,000,000
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
TD
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
3.4%
Last Dividend: $4.59
Stock Price: $135.88
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
HEX
Dividends Paid / Net Income
59.6%
Dividends Paid: -$871.00M
Net Income: $1.46B
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Aug 29, 2026 4:37am
Compares DTE against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 29, 2026 4:40am (23d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $15.0B $19.2B $12.7B $12.5B $15.8B
Cost of Revenue
Gross Profit
Operating Expenses $13.5B $17.5B $10.5B $10.4B $13.4B
Operating Income $1.5B $1.7B $2.2B $2.1B $2.4B
Net Income $907.0M $1.1B $1.4B $1.4B $1.5B
EBITDA $2.9B $3.2B $3.8B $3.8B $4.2B
EPS $4.68 $5.53 $6.77 $6.78 $7.04
EPS (Diluted) $4.67 $5.52 $6.76 $6.77 $7.03
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 29, 2026 4:30am (23d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $28.0M $33.0M $26.0M $24.0M $208.0M
Total Current Assets $3.3B $4.2B $3.5B $3.6B $4.3B
Total Assets $39.7B $42.7B $44.8B $48.8B $54.1B
Current Liabilities $6.3B $5.2B $5.9B $5.1B $5.4B
Long-Term Debt $14.5B $16.9B $17.4B $20.7B $23.8B
Total Liabilities $31.0B $32.3B $33.7B $37.1B $41.8B
Total Equity $8.7B $10.4B $11.1B $11.7B $12.3B
Retained Earnings $3.4B $3.8B $4.4B $4.9B $5.5B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 29, 2026 4:53am (23d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $3.1B $2.0B $3.2B $3.6B $3.4B
Capital Expenditure
Free Cash Flow
Acquisitions (net) $0 $0 $0 $0 -$210.0M
Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) $935.0M $584.0M $1.6B $2.4B $3.1B
Dividends Paid -$791.0M -$685.0M -$752.0M -$810.0M -$871.0M
Stock Buybacks -$66.0M -$55.0M $0 $0
Net Change in Cash -$481.0M $8.0M $8.0M $37.0M $162.0M
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 29, 2026 4:40am (23d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +28.5% -33.7% -2.3% +26.9%
Gross Profit Growth
Operating Income Growth +16.9% +28.3% -6.8% +13.5%
Net Income Growth +19.4% +29.0% +0.5% +4.1%
EBITDA Growth +12.0% +19.7% -0.7% +10.3%
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 29, 2026 4:30am (23d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-06-22 $1.17
2026-03-16 $1.17
2025-12-15 $1.17
2025-09-15 $1.09
2025-06-16 $1.09
2025-03-17 $1.09
2024-12-16 $1.09
2024-09-16 $1.02
2024-06-17 $1.02
2024-03-15 $1.02
2023-12-15 $1.02
2023-09-15 $0.95
2023-06-15 $0.95
2023-03-17 $0.95
2022-12-16 $0.95
2022-09-16 $0.89
2022-06-16 $0.89
2022-03-18 $0.89
2021-12-17 $0.89
2021-09-17 $0.83
0Company Classification 1Industry Landscape 2Company Momentum 3Forward Projection 4aDCF Valuation 4bEarnings Power Value 4cAnchored PE 4dReverse DCF 4eRevenue-Based DCF 4fAnchored P/S 4gScenario Analysis 4hDividend Discount Model 4iBook Value Analysis 4jInsider Activity 4fCash Flow Quality 4gDebt Maturity Risk 4hMacro Environment 4iSector Intelligence 4jRevenue Confidence 4kSensitivity Analysis 4lSector Demand Cycle 5AI Investigation 5bThesis Evaluation 6Valuation Synthesis
computed not applicable not yet run 14 computed · 6 not applicable · 4 not yet run
Risk : Reward — upside vs downside from this company's own quarters
Computed 2026-09-06 19:07
0.9 : 1 +1σ upside vs −1σ downside, from this company's own quarterly history
A +1σ run of quarters pays +61%; a −1σ run costs 70%. Ratio 0.9:1 (μ 13.9%, σ 20.3% , 16 pairs).
Older method (repeat-worst-quarter): 3.5 : 1
CaseGrowthMarginFair valuevs price ($135.82)
Bull — recovery +28% 15.8% $351.35 +159%
Base — stabilizes +19% 13.8% $231.96 +71%
Bear — keeps slipping +9% 11.7% $147.84 +9%
Stress — last quarter repeats +16% 4.4% $73.51 -46%
Upside — a +1σ run of quarters (v2) +34% 8.1% $219.10 +61%
Stress — a −1σ run of quarters (v2) -6% 5.1% $41.35 -70%
The next quarters keep the trajectory of the most recent ones — growth stays at 15.8% and margins bend by the same profit-vs-revenue ratio (×0.57). Stress is a trajectory, not a prediction — it answers "what if the ship's current heading simply continues," which history says is the case to respect.
Why this is appearing: this company files quarterly, so its recent trajectory could be measured rather than assumed — the engine matched Mar 2026 against the same quarter one year earlier and found revenue +15.8% · operating income -34.0% · net income -44.5% year-over-year. That measured heading is what the stress case extends forward. Data measured through Mar 31, 2026 — this card recalculates automatically when the next quarterly filing is ingested. Companies without quarterly filings (many foreign listings) never show this card: with no measured trajectory, there is nothing honest to repeat.
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for DTE — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Growth Outlook
Analyzed 2026-08-29 05:23

The question every valuation on this page silently assumes: is this company likely to grow? Judged forward — the business, its category, the world — against what's already printed.

Growing Regulated Michigan rate-base compounding plus an emerging large-load (data center) demand pipeline supports mid-to-high single-digit earnings power growth, even though headline revenue (commodity/weather pass-through) overstates it and the latest quarter's operating income drop shows cost and financing drag. conf 7/10
Inline with category Category growing · Category is in a confirmed boom (regulated electric median recent growth ~13.8%, industry recent YoY 13.6% vs 5.0% long-term CAGR, margins expanding +2.3pp). DTE's revenue is growing faster (+27% recent YoY, +15.8% matched-quarter), so on the top line it is running ahead of the tide — but its earnings growth (2.3% CAGR) lags what a booming category should deliver, so the outperformance is largely pass-through/rate-timing rather than superior earnings capture.
Next 2 quarters
Growing
Rate relief already in effect plus normal seasonal load should produce positive EPS growth, but comparisons are noisy and the most recent quarter showed sharp operating-income compression from cost and depreciation drag. Expect growth, not acceleration.
≈ inline with expectations
Year 1
Growing
Full-year trajectory is set by approved rate base and authorized returns, not by demand surprises. Mid-to-high single-digit EPS growth is the structural default, with weather and O&M as the swing factors. Revenue will likely look far stronger than earnings again.
≈ inline with expectations
Years 2–3
Growing
Structural earnings power should compound as capex converts to rate base, and the large-load/data-center pipeline offers genuine upside to the capex plan itself — the rare mechanism that can raise a utility's growth rate rather than just extend it. Ceiling is set by regulatory tolerance and financing cost, so this is Growing, not Accelerating.
≈ inline with expectations
The creme: each rung's call measured against what's already printed (vs analyst estimates · vs guidance / FY consensus · vs price-implied growth) — expectations in print are already in the price, so only the variant margin can pay. Hover a rung's chip for the margin read.
Growth drivers
72 Rate base / capex compounding — DTE's growth mechanism is regulated capital deployment (distribution hardening, generation transition, gas infrastructure) earning an authorized return. This is the single most reliable driver of utility earnings power and is largely independent of consumer demand cycles. Industry-wide margin expansion (+2.3pp over 3 years) confirms regulators are broadly allowing recovery.
51 Category demand boom / large-load pipeline — Sector is in a confirmed boom phase (category median recent growth ~13.8%) driven by electrification and data-center load. Michigan's industrial land, water and existing transmission make DTE a credible host for hyperscale load, which converts into incremental rate base and load growth that spreads fixed costs across more kWh — the rare utility driver that improves both growth and affordability optics.
30 Company revenue outrunning industry — Recent YoY revenue +27.0% vs industry +13.6% — a +13.3pp gap. Part is gas commodity and weather pass-through rather than true share, but it also reflects filed rate relief and volume growth landing ahead of peers.
23 Beat cadence on EPS — Three of the last four prints beat or landed near estimates (+16%, -4%, +9%; the -150% miss was on a near-zero shoulder-quarter base where percentage moves are meaningless). Suggests management is guiding conservatively into a supportive capex cycle.
Growth risks
67 Earnings not converting from revenue — Matched-quarter YoY: revenue +15.8% but operating income -34.0% and net income -44.5%. Five-year earnings CAGR of just 2.3% vs revenue CAGR 11.4% is the core tell — top line is largely pass-through, while O&M, storm costs, depreciation and interest absorb the gain. Growth in earnings power is far slower than the headline.
53 Regulatory lag and affordability politics — Michigan rate cases are the throttle on everything. Heavy capex with reliability complaints and rising bills invites disallowances, lower authorized ROE, or slower recovery timing. A single adverse order can flatten the EPS growth trajectory for a year or more.
39 Financing cost with 10y at 4.67% — Rate-base growth is debt- and equity-funded. Elevated long rates raise the cost of the very capital that drives growth and can dilute EPS growth even when rate base grows on plan. Macro backdrop flagged as headwind.
18 Weather / non-utility volatility — Energy trading and industrial energy segments plus weather-driven gas volumes make quarterly prints noisy (revenue volatility 0.146, not all years positive), which can mask or exaggerate the underlying regulated trend in any single quarter.
The world is pushing more electricity demand through regulated wires for the first time in two decades: AI/data-center load, industrial reshoring and electrification of heat and transport. For a monopoly wires-and-pipes owner, that translates mechanically into more approved capital and a bigger rate base — DTE does not have to win customers, it has to win regulators. The offsetting force is the cost of money and bill affordability: at a 4.67% 10-year, financing a large capex program is more expensive, and voters/regulators in a mid-income state like Michigan police residential bills closely. Net: the demand backdrop is the most favorable a regulated electric has faced in a generation, but the pass-through of that demand into per-share earnings is throttled by rate cases and interest expense, which is exactly what DTE's revenue-versus-earnings divergence shows.
Growth position composite +0
ShrinkingStallingHoldingGrowingAccelerating
70Next 2 quarters · Growing
70Year 1 · Growing
70Years 2–3 · Growing
+0Composite (−100…+100)
A research prediction, not advice. Forward-graded: each rung is scored against the prints that follow it. Not an input to the GEM designation — track record first.
Claude Reading
Independent analyst synthesis · claude-opus-4-7 · generated 2026-08-29 04:52:21
Verdict Modestly overvalued — fair value $118-122 vs $135.88; not a short, but new capital should wait for a 10%+ pullback or a rate-cut catalyst before initiating.

Looking at the raw numbers first: DTE's quarterly trajectory is noisy but the headline revenue "acceleration" (Q1'26 $5.14B vs Q1'25 $4.44B, +16%) is largely a weather/commodity artifact typical of Michigan winters — you can see the same seasonal pattern in Q1'25 vs Q1'24 ($4.44B vs prior). Net income tells the real story: Q1'26 NI of $247M is actually *down* 44% from Q1'25's $445M despite higher revenue, and margin compressed from 10% to 4.8%. That's not "accelerating" — that's cost pressure eating into a rate-regulated business. Trailing four quarters of NI sums to ~$1.26B, actually below the $1.46B reported for FY2025, suggesting earnings are decelerating, not compounding. The 27% YoY revenue print in the momentum table is misleading noise.

The balance sheet is where I'd push hardest against the "fortress utility" narrative. Debt/equity of 2.11x, $26B of debt against $208M cash, current ratio 0.80, ROIC of 5.87% — that ROIC is barely above the after-tax cost of debt for a BBB utility in this rate environment. Operating cash flow of $3.41B against a capex program that (per typical DTE guidance) runs $4.5-5B annually means this company is FCF-negative and funding both its dividend (~$1.4B) and its clean-energy capex with debt issuance and equity. That works at 3% rates; it's painful at 5%. The synthesis verdict's "high debt risk" flag is correct and, if anything, undersold by the other layers.

Where I diverge from the models: the synthesis says fair value $95-105 and I think that's too harsh for a regulated utility with Michigan's constructive commission and embedded rate-base growth. Peers (XEL, WEC, ED) trade at 18-21x forward earnings with similar leverage profiles; DTE at 19.3x TTM isn't an outlier — it's mid-pack. The DCF-implied $105 assumes a discount rate that probably overpenalizes regulated cash flows. That said, the market narrative layer nails it: the +$30 premium is a bet on flawless regulatory execution and cooperative rates, and neither is guaranteed. A more defensible fair value band is $115-125, not $95 and not $135. The pre-flight layer's framing as "dividend-income" is right, but a 3.38% yield with a 60% payout on decelerating earnings and negative FCF is not the bargain income vehicle it appears — SO, DUK, and AEP all offer comparable yields with better coverage.

The contrarian case for staying long here: Michigan's IRP allows recovery on the $25B+ clean energy capex plan, rate base is compounding ~7-8%, and if the Fed cuts materially in 2026 the whole utility complex re-rates up 10-15%. Insider activity is neutral-to-negative (one small sale, mostly awards — not a signal either way at these sizes). The contrarian case against: this is a levered bond proxy trading at a growth-stock multiple relative to its actual earnings CAGR of 2.3%. The earnings CAGR being 2.3% against a revenue CAGR of 11.4% is the tell — this company is growing the top line via rate cases and fuel pass-throughs but not converting it to shareholder earnings. That's the definition of a capital-intensive treadmill. Data thinness: no FCF or capex disclosed in this file, which is the single most important number for a utility — I'm inferring from OCF and industry norms, and that's a real gap. The Q1'26 date also suggests this data extends into forward quarters that may be estimates rather than reported actuals; treat accordingly.

Net: I partially agree with the "overvalued" verdict but think the magnitude is overstated. Fair value is closer to $120 than $105 — a 10-12% premium is unwarranted but not egregious. This isn't a short; it's a "don't chase, wait for $118-122 on any rate scare or regulatory hiccup." Income investors already holding should keep clipping the 3.4% coupon; new money should wait. The models collectively lean too hard on the DCF and underweight peer-multiple context, but they're directionally right that you're not being paid for the leverage risk at $136.

GPT Reading
Independent reading · gpt-5.4 · generated 2026-08-29 04:52:34
Verdict Overvalued at $135.88 — fair value looks closer to $110-$120 unless earnings conversion improves materially and leverage stops diluting the benefit of rate-base growth.

DTE’s numbers read like a utility that is improving operationally but not nearly enough to justify paying a quality premium this large. The headline revenue growth looks better than the economics underneath it: 2025 revenue rose to $15.81 billion from $12.46 billion in 2024, up 27%, yet net income barely moved, to $1.46 billion from $1.40 billion, about 4% growth. That means the incremental revenue carried very poor earnings conversion, and the annual net margin actually slipped from roughly 11.2% to 9.2%. Quarterly data tell the same story. Q1 2026 revenue was $5.14 billion versus $4.44 billion a year earlier, but net income fell from $445 million to $247 million, taking margin from 10.0% to 4.8%. For a regulated utility, I want to see steadier earnings capture from rate base growth; instead I see a business with rising top line, volatile quarterly profitability, and only modest bottom-line progress.

The balance sheet is the main reason I won’t pay up. DTE ended 2025 with $26.02 billion of debt against just $208 million of cash and $12.31 billion of equity, a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.11x. Utilities can and do run levered, but at today’s rates that leverage is not free, and DTE’s return profile doesn’t obviously compensate for it: ROE is 11.9%, ROIC just 5.9%, and EV/EBITDA is 12.8x. Put differently, the enterprise is being valued richly relative to a capital structure that is doing a lot of the work. Operating income did improve to $2.37 billion in 2025 from $2.09 billion in 2024, but that gain translated into only $60 million of net income growth. That spread strongly suggests financing and below-the-line burdens are absorbing too much of the operating progress. In a utility, that often means shareholders are funding a long-duration capex story while the market capitalizes the eventual payoff early.

At $135.88, investors are paying about 19.3x earnings and 2.28x book for a regulated electric utility yielding 3.38%. None of those figures are absurd in isolation, but together they imply a very forgiving market. A 3.4% dividend yield is not enough of a cushion when payout is already about 60% and leverage is elevated. If earnings really compound only low single digits, the stock is effectively a bond proxy with equity risk and regulatory risk attached. The annual record supports “steady,” not “compounding machine”: net income was $907 million in 2021, $1.08 billion in 2022, then $1.40 billion in 2023, flat at $1.40 billion in 2024, and $1.46 billion in 2025. That is respectable, but it does not scream scarcity value at nearly 20x earnings. I come out closer to low-to-mid teens on earnings for this profile, which points more toward a value range around $105-$120 than the current price.

The strongest argument against my view is that DTE is exactly the type of asset the market overpays for and often gets away with it. Operating cash flow was a healthy $3.41 billion in 2025, the dividend looks serviceable, and regulated utility accounting can make quarterly earnings noise look worse than underlying economics. Revenue has rebounded sharply from 2024 levels, operating income is trending up, and if Michigan regulation remains constructive, that leverage can amplify equity returns rather than destroy them. There is also a real possibility that the ugly Q1 2026 margin is timing-related rather than structural; utility quarters can swing with weather, recoveries, and cost true-ups. If investors are buying 5-7% EPS and dividend growth with recession resistance, then 19x may stay supportable, especially if long rates ease.

What would change my mind is evidence that the recent revenue growth is starting to convert cleanly into earnings and cash for equity holders rather than just a larger financed asset base. Specifically, I’d want to see the next few quarters restore net margin toward the 9-11% range instead of the 4.8% seen in Q1 2026, full-year net income running clearly above $1.55 billion, and operating cash flow staying above $3.5 billion without a further step-up in leverage. If DTE can show that 2025’s operating-income improvement was not mostly consumed by financing drag, then the premium multiple becomes more defensible. Absent that, this looks like a good utility business priced like a great one.

Grok Reading
Independent reading · grok-4.5 · generated 2026-08-29 04:53:13
Verdict Overvalued at $135.88; fair value nearer $100–110 given 2.3% earnings CAGR, 5.9% ROIC, and heavy leverage versus a 19.3x earnings multiple

DTE’s raw numbers tell a story of a utility whose top line is expanding faster than its economic engine can convert into owner returns. Annual revenue jumped from $12.46B in 2024 to $15.81B in 2025, a roughly 27% leap that also shows up in the recent quarterly run-rate—$5.14B in the March 2026 quarter alone versus $3.42–$4.44B through most of 2025. Yet net income barely budged, $1.40B to $1.46B, and the five-year earnings CAGR sits at a muted 2.3% against an 11.4% revenue CAGR. Operating income did improve to $2.37B from $2.09B, and the 15% operating margin and 9.2% net margin are respectable for the sector, but ROIC of 5.9% and ROA of 2.7% signal that incremental rate-base and transition spend is not yet earning its keep above a higher cost of capital. Balance-sheet reality is stark: $26.02B of debt against $12.31B of equity (D/E 2.11) and only $208M of cash, with a current ratio of 0.80. Operating cash flow of $3.41B is the genuine bright spot, but missing free-cash-flow and capex figures leave the most important utility question—self-funding of the energy transition—unanswered in the data. At $135.88 the stock prints a 19.3x P/E, 2.28x book, and 12.8x EV/EBITDA while yielding 3.4% on a 60% payout; that multiple set prices in mid-single-digit earnings growth and benign regulation that the trailing 2.3% earnings trajectory has not delivered.

The contradiction with the “steady compounder / dividend-income” framing is the gap between narrative rate-base growth and actual earnings power. Michigan’s regulated construct and the clean-energy story can support a defensive multiple, yet the market is paying roughly 30% above the models’ $95–$105 fair-value band for a company whose ROE of 11.9% is only average and whose leverage leaves little room for rate or regulatory disappointment. Quarterly margins swinging from 4.8% to 16.4% also undercut the “fortress cash flow” claim; weather, fuel, and timing noise still matter. Insider activity is noise—routine awards and one small sale—and does not offset the structural picture.

The strongest counter-case is straightforward: revenue is clearly accelerating, operating profit is rising, the dividend looks covered, and regulated utilities often trade at premiums when rates stabilize and investors chase defensive yield. A bull can argue that 2025’s revenue step-up is the start of multi-year rate-base expansion, that 19x is not outrageous versus peers once growth re-rates toward 5–7%, and that the $30 premium over DCF simply prices constructive Michigan outcomes and renewable capex that will eventually lift ROIC. I weigh that less heavily because earnings have not yet followed revenue, ROIC remains sub-cost-of-capital, cash is thin relative to $26B of debt, and macro headwinds plus “below sector benchmarks” already flag the vulnerability. Paying 19x for 2% historical earnings growth and hoping the narrative closes the gap is the wrong side of the asymmetry.

I would reverse to neutral or constructive on a sustained print of mid-single-digit-plus earnings growth (not just revenue), visible free-cash-flow after capex that covers the dividend with room to spare, and any concrete reduction in net leverage or improvement in interest coverage. A regulatory order that locked in higher allowed ROE on the expanded rate base, or a multiple compression toward the mid-teens while fundamentals held, would also reset the risk/reward.

Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Each AI above independently stated a direction (undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued) and how strongly it believes it (conviction, 0–5). We combine those into a Bull-Bear Index on a 0–10 scale: 5 is neutral, 10 is maximum bullish (undervalued at full conviction), 0 is maximum bearish. We compute the score ourselves with the same arithmetic for every seat — the models never grade their own bullishness — so the three are directly comparable. Δ shows how far each seat sits from the panel average of 1.3; a large Δ marks the dissenting voice, usually the one worth reading.
Claude claude-opus-4-7 2.0
overvalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +0.7 vs panel · self: 4.0
GPT gpt-5.4 1.0
overvalued · conviction 4/5 · Δ -0.3 vs panel · self: 3.0
Grok grok-4.5 1.0
overvalued · conviction 4/5 · Δ -0.3 vs panel · self: 3.0
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-08-29 05:26:22
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality - wait for a dip 8/10
Solid regulated utility trading 20-30% above deserved value with no sentiment tailwind to justify chasing - wait for the pullback.
The cruxEntry price. The business is fine; the price is not. Everything hinges on getting a handle closer to $110 before the yield-plus-rate-base math offers any cushion.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from DTE's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionStable Share Count
Earnings QualityGood Earnings Quality
The four lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+26
Solid
edge √Σ 102 · risk √Σ 76 · conf 7/10

DTE is a classic regulated electric utility: revenue swings with commodity pass-through (from $14.96B in 2021 to $19.23B in 2022, then $12.46B-$15.81B) but operating margin has stepped up from ~9-10% to ~15-17% since 2023, and net income has grown steadily from $907M to $1.46B. Free cash flow is robust and consistent at $3.07B-$3.64B annually, comfortably self-funding operations even as the balance sheet carries roughly $25.8B of net debt against just $208M of liquid cash - normal for a rate-base utility but leaves no cushion. Short-term debt of $2.24B versus that cash pile means DTE is perpetually reliant on debt-market access to roll obligations. Earnings quality looks clean: OCF/NI at 2.49x, accruals -4% of assets, and no dilution-driven earnings mirage. Diluted share count has drifted from 194M to 207M (1.6% CAGR) - real but modest dilution, consistent with utility equity issuance to fund capex, and not per-share destructive given EPS is still rising. Altman Z of 0.96 flags 'distress' but the model misreads asset-heavy regulated utilities almost by design; the real risk is rate-case outcomes and interest-rate exposure on the debt stack, not insolvency. Insider tape is inert - one small sale, routine awards, no directional signal. Management appears to be running a standard regulated-utility playbook competently.

Strengths 3
m70
Consistent, high FCF generation
FCF of $3.07B, $1.98B, $3.22B, $3.64B, $3.41B across 2021-2025 - durable cash engine that covers dividends and much of capex.
m55
Margin expansion and EPS growth
Operating margin rose from ~9-10% (2021-22) to 15-17% (2023-25); net income up from $907M to $1.46B, a ~60% climb over four years.
m50
Clean earnings quality
OCF/NI at 2.49x and accruals at -4% of assets indicate reported earnings are backed by cash, not accrual gymnastics.
Concerns 3
m65
Heavy net debt / thin liquidity
Net debt of ~$25.8B versus only $208M liquid cash; $2.24B short-term debt exceeds cash on hand - continuous reliance on capital-markets access.
m30
Persistent equity issuance
Diluted shares grew from 194M to 207M (1.6% CAGR); modest but a real per-share headwind that partially offsets earnings growth.
m25
Altman Z in distress zone
Z of 0.96 flags distress, though the model is unreliable for regulated utilities with rate-base assets and predictable cash flows.
This is a textbook regulated utility - not exciting, not fragile. The cash generation is real and repeatable, margins are moving the right way, and earnings quality is clean. The debt load looks scary in isolation but is standard for the business model, funded against a regulated rate base with predictable returns. The genuine soft spots are dilution creeping ~1.6%/yr and the fact that a $208M cash balance against $2.24B of short-term debt means the company lives or dies by continuous access to debt markets - a legitimate but well-understood utility risk. Nothing in the numbers suggests mismanagement or accounting mischief. Solid business, not a fortress.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Debt maturity ladder and weighted average interest rate on the ~$26B debt stack
  • Recent Michigan Public Service Commission rate case outcomes and allowed ROE
  • Capex plan and financing mix (equity vs debt) for coming years
  • Whether recent revenue swings are commodity pass-through or underlying volume/rate changes
  • Any pending environmental or coal-retirement obligations
Valuation / Mispricing
-67
Rich
edge √Σ 20 · risk √Σ 101 · conf 6/10
Price $135.82 vs deserved ~$100-$115 - roughly 20-30% above fair, no margin of safety. attractive below $110.00

The composite fair value of $95.30 and signal-adjusted FV of $104.92 both imply the stock is roughly 23-30% above deserved value. The anchored-PE method spits out $187.69, which looks like a runaway extrapolation of peak multiples and should be discounted; the EPV floor of $2.90 is clearly a broken input (regulated utilities do not have near-zero earnings power) and I ignore it. Triangulating on the composite and DCF-style signal-adjusted numbers, deserved value sits in the $100-$115 zone for a Solid-quality regulated utility with clean earnings and standard leverage. At $135.82 the market is paying a premium multiple for what is, by the quality lens, a textbook - not exceptional - regulated utility. What is priced in: continued constructive Michigan rate cases, on-schedule renewables capex earning authorized ROE, stable rates helping the yield trade, and no weather/operational shock. That is a lot of 'nothing goes wrong' for a mid-20% premium. Quality is real but already in the tape - this is not a mispricing, it's a full price on a good business.

Cheap signals 1
m20
Quality supports a higher deserved multiple
Solid earnings quality and dependable regulated cash flows justify pulling deserved value up from the raw $95 composite toward ~$110, but not to $136.
Rich / priced-in 4
m70
Composite FV well below price
Composite $95.30 and signal-adjusted $104.92 both sit 23-30% under the $135.82 quote - the core valuation output says overvalued.
m55
Priced for perfect regulation
A ~25%+ premium to DCF implies flawless Michigan rate case outcomes and on-plan capex - any regulatory lag or ROE trim compresses the multiple.
m40
Yield cushion is thin at this price
Buying a regulated utility at a growth-like premium erodes the dividend-yield thesis; the income case works better 15-20% lower.
m25
Anchored-PE input looks unreliable
The $187.69 anchored-PE output is an outlier vs every other method and likely reflects stretched peer/historical multiples - I discount it heavily rather than average it in.
Fully valued to modestly rich. The business is fine - clean earnings, standard utility leverage, predictable rate base - but I am not paying a 25%+ premium to fair value for a Solid, not exceptional, regulated name. I need it closer to $110 before the yield-plus-rate-base math gives me any cushion. Above $130 the market has already collected the quality premium and left me with the operational and regulatory risk for free.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Latest Michigan PSC rate case order - authorized ROE and equity layer
  • Capex plan and rate base growth guidance through 2027
  • Any one-off items in TTM EPS that inflate the anchored-PE input
  • Interest expense trajectory and refinancing schedule at current rates
General Sentiment
-26
Balanced
tail √Σ 39 · head √Σ 65 · conf 6/10

DTE sits in the least sentiment-sensitive corner of the market: a 0.4-beta regulated Michigan utility with a moderate, low-cult 'steady compounder plus clean-energy optionality' story. The risk-on tape (VIX 14, +35 score) is a mild positive for equities broadly but does almost nothing for a defensive utility that neither participates in melt-ups nor gets punished in mild pullbacks. There is no active narrative running ahead of or collapsing under this name; the story is stable, boring, and priced accordingly. That means the non-fundamental pressure is genuinely muted. The clearest active pressure is macro: the 10y at 4.67% and a steep-ish curve are a persistent, sector-specific headwind for regulated utilities, whose bond-proxy characteristics keep them capped whenever long rates stay sticky. Layered on top is a 4.1% post-earnings drift lower over the past month and a slight leverage tick (D/E 1.89 to 2.11), which gives the tape a small negative lean rather than a tailwind. Analyst tone appears quiet - no visible target revision wave, no upgrade cycle for DTE Energy specifically (the Zacks upgrade news items are for Deutsche Telekom, the German telecom sharing the DTE root, and do not apply here). Net: a low-amplitude balance with a faint headwind from rates and the earnings hangover, offset by a benign risk-on backdrop and a durable, uncontroversial narrative.

Tailwinds 2
m25
Calm risk-on backdrop
VIX 14 and a building risk-on regime removes the tail-risk premium that would otherwise weigh on any equity. For a 0.4-beta name the benefit is modest but real - no forced de-risking flows to fight.
m30
Durable, uncontroversial narrative
Steady-compounder archetype with moderate durability and low cult coefficient means no fragile story to crack. The clean-energy-utility angle is intact and non-polarizing, giving the stock narrative stability while flashier names get whipsawed.
Headwinds 4
m45
Long rates pin the bond proxy
10y at 4.67% with market PE 26 is a persistent, sector-specific press on regulated utilities. DTE's dividend-driven appeal competes directly with risk-free yield, capping upside until rates roll over.
m35
Post-earnings drift
Down 4.1% since the last print with no visible catalyst to reverse it. Small but real negative tape momentum on a name that usually trades sideways.
m20
No analyst catalyst for THIS DTE
The recent upgrade headlines are for Deutsche Telekom, not DTE Energy. There is no visible upgrade cycle or target-revision tailwind pulling this name higher.
m25
Priced-for-perfection framing
The bear narrative that DTE trades at a premium to DCF fair value lingers in the background; it is not actively de-rating the stock but caps how much good news can be extrapolated.
There is no strong sentiment force operating on this name in either direction. It is a low-beta, low-cult, low-drama utility with a stable narrative in a calm tape - the definition of balanced non-fundamental pressure. If I have to lean, it is a whisker negative: sticky long rates and a post-earnings drift are doing more work than the mild risk-on backdrop, and there is no analyst upgrade cycle for this specific DTE to lift it. Call it a slow, uneventful drift with a faint downward tilt until rates cooperate.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Whether the 10y breaks above 4.75% or rolls toward 4.25% - biggest single swing factor for the tape here
  • Michigan PSC rate case rulings or filings that could shift the regulatory-benignness assumption
  • Any real analyst target revisions on DTE Energy (not Deutsche Telekom) in coming weeks
  • Sector rotation signals - whether XLU starts leading or lagging as the risk-on tape matures
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
Growth Outlook
+0
Growing
edge √Σ 96 · risk √Σ 96 · conf 7/10

The world is pushing more electricity demand through regulated wires for the first time in two decades: AI/data-center load, industrial reshoring and electrification of heat and transport. For a monopoly wires-and-pipes owner, that translates mechanically into more approved capital and a bigger rate base — DTE does not have to win customers, it has to win regulators. The offsetting force is the cost of money and bill affordability: at a 4.67% 10-year, financing a large capex program is more expensive, and voters/regulators in a mid-income state like Michigan police residential bills closely. Net: the demand backdrop is the most favorable a regulated electric has faced in a generation, but the pass-through of that demand into per-share earnings is throttled by rate cases and interest expense, which is exactly what DTE's revenue-versus-earnings divergence shows.

Growth drivers 4
m72
Rate base / capex compounding
DTE's growth mechanism is regulated capital deployment (distribution hardening, generation transition, gas infrastructure) earning an authorized return. This is the single most reliable driver of utility earnings power and is largely independent of consumer demand cycles. Industry-wide margin expansion (+2.3pp over 3 years) confirms regulators are broadly allowing recovery.
m51
Category demand boom / large-load pipeline
Sector is in a confirmed boom phase (category median recent growth ~13.8%) driven by electrification and data-center load. Michigan's industrial land, water and existing transmission make DTE a credible host for hyperscale load, which converts into incremental rate base and load growth that spreads fixed costs across more kWh — the rare utility driver that improves both growth and affordability optics.
m30
Company revenue outrunning industry
Recent YoY revenue +27.0% vs industry +13.6% — a +13.3pp gap. Part is gas commodity and weather pass-through rather than true share, but it also reflects filed rate relief and volume growth landing ahead of peers.
m23
Beat cadence on EPS
Three of the last four prints beat or landed near estimates (+16%, -4%, +9%; the -150% miss was on a near-zero shoulder-quarter base where percentage moves are meaningless). Suggests management is guiding conservatively into a supportive capex cycle.
Growth risks 4
m67
Earnings not converting from revenue
Matched-quarter YoY: revenue +15.8% but operating income -34.0% and net income -44.5%. Five-year earnings CAGR of just 2.3% vs revenue CAGR 11.4% is the core tell — top line is largely pass-through, while O&M, storm costs, depreciation and interest absorb the gain. Growth in earnings power is far slower than the headline.
m53
Regulatory lag and affordability politics
Michigan rate cases are the throttle on everything. Heavy capex with reliability complaints and rising bills invites disallowances, lower authorized ROE, or slower recovery timing. A single adverse order can flatten the EPS growth trajectory for a year or more.
m39
Financing cost with 10y at 4.67%
Rate-base growth is debt- and equity-funded. Elevated long rates raise the cost of the very capital that drives growth and can dilute EPS growth even when rate base grows on plan. Macro backdrop flagged as headwind.
m18
Weather / non-utility volatility
Energy trading and industrial energy segments plus weather-driven gas volumes make quarterly prints noisy (revenue volatility 0.146, not all years positive), which can mask or exaggerate the underlying regulated trend in any single quarter.
vs expectations: ~6m inline · 1y inline · 2-3y inline
The forward growth verdict — is the business itself likely to grow (next 2 quarters / year 1 / years 2–3), judged against its category and against printed expectations. The full horizon ladder + creme renders on the Growth Outlook card above. Not a call on the price (Valuation owns that) or the tape (Sentiment owns that).
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Lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure), and Growth Outlook (the forward growth verdict). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Price Prediction
Lower -5.0% v0.6.0 View full prediction →

When we made this prediction on Aug 29, 2026, DTE was $135.82. We expect it to be $129.00 by Mar 2027, and we consider it great value under $110.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 29, 2026.

Price when predicted$135.82
Our estimate for Mar 2027$129.00-5.0%
Great value below$110.00
Price history shown (6 Months)

Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.

Post-Report Due Diligence NOTES
The report is written. This is what its valuation stands on.
Analyzed Sep 9, 2026 · 02:03 12d ago
Read epv-floor ext-gem-composite anchored-pe · FY income statement, balance sheet
1 finding · $0, re-derived on each view

Evidence for a closer look, not a verdict — no score or designation on this page has been changed by it. Items marked material are ones where a conclusion above moves to the other side of the price.

anchored-pe — the "fair value above price" reading turns on 2 inputs NOTE found by sensitivity, not by rule
Published $175.88 vs price $135.82. Nudging `trailing_eps` (down 25%), `adjusted_pe` (down 25%) moves the fair value to the other side of the price. This does not say those inputs are wrong — it says they are where to look first.
trailing_eps flips down 25% adjusted_pe flips down 25%
Price at analysis $135.82. This is where an investigation should start — it is not where one ends. Nothing here was checked against the filings, the tape, or the news; that is the investigator's job.
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My Notes personal — only you see this
v1.1.647 · fdb9d9c9 · 2026-09-21 02:01:21