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AGING Analysis Report
Jun 7, 2026
24 days ago · 100% complete
Archived report · generated Jun 7, 2026 · 2:31 PM · models: linear-pipeline, preflight-routed · cost: $0.262
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Qualys, Inc.

QLYS NASDAQ Categories PDF
Technology · Software - Infrastructure
Foster City, CA 94404, United States IPO 2012 qualys.com Updated Jun 7, 2:25pm
Price
$109.90
Market Cap
$3.9B
Employees
2,443
Beta
0.65
Avg Volume
805,704
CEO
Sumedh S. Thakar
Business Description

Qualys, Inc. provides cloud-based information technology (IT), security, and compliance solutions in the United States and internationally. The company offers Qualys Cloud Apps, which includes Vulnerability Management; Vulnerability Management, Detection and Response; Threat Protection; Continuous Monitoring; Patch Management; Multi-Vector Endpoint Detection and Response; Certificate Assessment; SaaS Detection and Response; Secure Enterprise Mobility; Policy Compliance; Security Configuration Assessment; PCI Compliance; File Integrity Monitoring; Security Assessment Questionnaire; Out of-Band Configuration Assessment; Web Application Scanning; Web Application Firewall; Global Asset Inventory; Cybersecurity Asset Management; Certificate Inventory; Cloud Inventory; Cloud Security Assessment; and Container Security. Its integrated suite of IT, security, and compliance solutions delivered on its Qualys Cloud Platform enables customers to identify and manage IT assets, collect and analyze IT security data, discover and prioritize vulnerabilities, recommend and implement remediation actions, and verify the implementation of such actions. The company also provides asset tagging and management, reporting and dashboards, questionnaires and collaboration, remediation and workflow, big data correlation and analytics engine, and alerts and notifications, which enable integrated workflows, management and real-time analysis, and reporting across IT, security, and compliance solutions. The company offers its solutions through its sales teams, as well as through its network of channel partners, such as security consulting organizations, managed service providers, resellers, and consulting firms. It serves enterprises, government entities, and small and medium-sized businesses in various industries, including education, financial services, government, healthcare, insurance, manufacturing, media, retail, technology, and utilities. The company was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in Foster City, California.

Business History
Generated: Jun 7, 2026 2:28pm
Price Overview
Price at report time · Jun 7, 2:25pm (24d ago)
$109.90
Change · Jun 7
-1.63 (-1.46%)
Day Range
$107.10 – $112.12
52-Week Range
$74.51 – $155.47
50-Day MA
$91.34
200-Day MA
$118.76
Volume
697,635.00
Right now · live
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Real-time — the change above is the move since the report (over 24d).
Analyst Price Targets
Low $85.00
Consensus $103.00
High $125.00
(34 analysts)
Share Structure
Outstanding 35,217,007.00
Float 34,974,010.00
Free Float 99.3%
High free float — 99.3% of shares trade freely, ~0.7% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 2:31pm (24d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 2:31pm (24d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
API Direct from provider CALC Derived from statements
Industry comparison last run: Jun 7, 2026 2:27pm
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
API
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
19.43
Stock Price: $109.90
EPS (Diluted): 5.49
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
API
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
8.56
Stock Price: $109.90
Total Equity: $561.15M
Shares: 36,453,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
API
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
14.15
Market Cap: $3.87B
Total Debt: $52.27M
Cash: $250.26M
EBITDA: $261.32M
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
API
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$4.7B
Market Cap: $3.87B
Total Debt: $52.27M
Cash: $250.26M
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
API
Gross Profit / Revenue
82.8%
Gross Profit: $554.36M
Revenue: $669.13M
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
API
Operating Income / Revenue
33.2%
Operating Income: $221.95M
Revenue: $669.13M
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
API
Net Income / Revenue
29.6%
Net Income: $198.32M
Revenue: $669.13M
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
API
Net Income / Total Equity
37.2%
Net Income: $198.32M
Total Equity: $561.15M
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
API
NOPAT / Invested Capital
28.8%
Operating Income: $221.95M
Tax Rate: 19.7%
Equity: $561.15M
Total Debt: $52.27M
Cash: $250.26M
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
API
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
1.41
Current Assets: $657.62M
Current Liabilities: $467.34M
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
CALC
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.09
Short-Term Debt: $7.32M
Long-Term Debt: $44.96M
Total Debt: $52.27M
Total Equity: $561.15M
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
CALC
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$18.36
Revenue: $669.13M
Shares: 36,453,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
CALC
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$15.39
Total Equity: $561.15M
Shares: 36,453,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
CALC
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$8.35
Operating CF: $309.40M
CapEx: -$4.99M
Shares: 36,453,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
API
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
0.0%
Last Dividend: N/A
Stock Price: $109.90
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
Dividends Paid / Net Income
—
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $198.32M
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Jun 7, 2026 2:27pm
Compares QLYS against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · three lenses
Three separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-06-07 14:41:57
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality — starter position, scale in lower 7/10
Fortress-quality business (Q:100) at a merely modest discount (V:11) — a great company, but not yet a great price.
The cruxWhether competitive pressure from CrowdStrike/Palo Alto/Microsoft compresses Qualys's growth toward zero — because at $110 you're paying for durable mid-single-digit growth, not just the EPV floor.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from QLYS's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionShare Count Shrinking
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The three lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+100
Fortress
edge √Σ 176 · risk √Σ 32 · conf 9/10

The financial trajectory is the kind you rarely see: revenue compounded from $411M (2021) to $669M (2025) — roughly 13% CAGR — while gross margin expanded 460bps to 82.8% and operating margin nearly doubled from 21.3% to 33.2%. Net income grew from $71M to $198M (~29% CAGR), and FCF stepped up to $304M with an OCF/NI ratio of 1.85x, meaning reported earnings are conservatively backed by cash. Accruals are deeply negative (-11.5% of assets), Beneish M of -2.87 and Altman Z of 5.62 corroborate clean books and zero solvency risk.

The capital structure is enviable: $446M liquid cash, $394M net cash, no need for external funding, and a diluted share count that has shrunk from 40.1M to 36.5M (-2.4% CAGR) despite SBC of 11.5% of revenue — buybacks ran at 273% of SBC, so management is genuinely concentrating per-share value rather than papering over comp. This is the textbook profile of a mature, self-funding software earner with real operating leverage.

The one wrinkle is insider behavior: 68 sells / 0 buys over 12 months totaling $10.5M, including CEO Thakar selling ~$1.5M on June 1. The dollar amounts are modest relative to a $3.9B cap and the activity appears program/RSU-driven, but the complete absence of open-market buying is worth noting in a business this strong.

Strengths 5
m90
Margin expansion with revenue growth
Operating margin climbed from 21.3% (2021) to 33.2% (2025) while revenue grew 63% over the same period — clear operating leverage in a software model already at 82.8% gross margin.
m85
Real per-share value concentration
Diluted share count fell from 40.1M to 36.5M (-2.4% CAGR) with buybacks at 273.5% of SBC — net income per share has therefore compounded materially faster than the ~29% net income CAGR.
m80
Pristine earnings quality
OCF/NI 1.85x, accruals -11.5% of assets, Beneish M -2.87, Altman Z 5.62 — every mechanical check points to conservative, cash-backed accounting.
m75
Fortress balance sheet, self-funding
$445.9M liquid cash, $393.7M net cash, and $304.4M annual FCF means zero reliance on capital markets and ample dry powder for buybacks/M&A.
m60
FCF inflecting higher
FCF stepped from a $175–236M range in 2021–2024 up to $304.4M in 2025 (+31% YoY), well outpacing revenue growth of ~10%, indicating working capital and margin tailwinds are still in front of the business.
Concerns 2
m25
One-sided insider tape
68 sells / 0 buys for $10.5M over 12 months including CEO Thakar at $1.5M on a single day; likely RSU-program driven but no insider has stepped up to buy.
m20
SBC still ~11.5% of revenue
Stock-based comp at $77M+ run-rate is being more than offset by buybacks today, but it's a real ongoing cost that requires continued repurchase discipline to neutralize.
This is genuinely one of the cleaner businesses I've looked at — a mature SaaS earner with 82.8% gross margins, 33% operating margins still climbing, $300M+ FCF, a net cash balance sheet, and a shrinking share count. Earnings quality scores ace every forensic check. The only blemish is an entirely one-sided insider tape with zero open-market buys, but the dollar volume is small and the pattern looks compensation-driven rather than informed selling. As a business, Qualys is a fortress: durable cybersecurity demand, expanding margins, disciplined capital return, and clean accounting. Whether the stock is attractive is a different question I'm not asked to answer.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Customer concentration and net revenue retention disclosed in the 10-K — durability of the cybersecurity moat vs. CrowdStrike/Tenable/Rapid7
  • Whether insider sales are pursuant to 10b5-1 plans (would de-fang the selling pattern signal)
  • Composition of buybacks vs. SBC dilution at trailing prices to confirm true per-share accretion
  • Segment/product mix — what % of growth is core VMDR vs. newer modules (EDR, CSPM, TotalCloud)
  • Any contingent liabilities, lease commitments, or off-balance-sheet items not captured in net cash
Valuation / Mispricing
+11
Modestly Cheap
edge √Σ 75 · risk √Σ 64 · conf 6/10
Price $109.90 vs skeptical deserved value ~$125-130 — roughly 15% discount, modestly cheap but not a fat pitch. attractive below $92.00

The composite fair value of $150 and signal-adjusted $153 imply ~39% upside, but the spread of the underlying methods ($60.71 EPV floor, $85.51 anchored P/E, $227 DCF) tells me the DCF is doing most of the lifting and is almost certainly running hot on terminal assumptions for a low-single-digit-growth mature SaaS name. I'd discount the DCF heavily and weight EPV/anchored-PE more, which lands deserved value closer to $115-140 — call it ~$125-130 midpoint on a quality-adjusted basis given the Fortress balance sheet (net cash) and pristine earnings quality.

Against $109.90, that's roughly a 10-20% gap — modestly cheap, not deep value. The market is pricing QLYS as a mature, slow-growth security vendor losing share to CrowdStrike/Palo Alto/Microsoft, and that view isn't unreasonable. What you're getting paid for is the 33% operating margin, $300M+ FCF, and shrinking share count — what you're NOT getting is a setup where you can be wrong on growth and still win big. A genuine margin of safety would want this closer to the high-$80s to low-$90s, near the anchored-PE read.

Cheap signals 3
m55
Trades below anchored fair value even after DCF haircut
Composite FV $150 is inflated by a $227 DCF, but even discounting that, a blend of EPV ($61) and anchored-PE ($86) plus quality premium lands ~$120-130 — still above the $110 print.
m45
Net cash + $300M FCF supports a higher deserved multiple
Fortress balance sheet and clean earnings quality (no haircut warranted) mean reported FCF is real; on ~$300M FCF and ~$3.87B cap, that's a ~7.7% FCF yield for a 33%-margin SaaS — generous for the category.
m25
Buyback shrinking share count adds passive tailwind
Shrinking share count on a cash-generative base means per-share value grows even with flat revenue — modestly supportive of deserved value.
Rich / priced-in 2
m50
DCF is doing the heavy lifting and looks runaway
A $227 DCF on a low-growth mature SaaS implies optimistic terminal assumptions; the $61 EPV floor is the more honest 'no-growth' anchor, and the gap between them is the real debate.
m40
Bear narrative is plausible and not yet in the price at $110
If CrowdStrike/Palo Alto/Microsoft continue to compress Qualys's growth toward zero, the anchored-PE ~$86 becomes the right print and today's price is ~25% too high.
Modestly cheap, not a screaming buy. The headline 39% upside leans on a DCF I don't trust for a mature, share-losing SaaS — strip that out and I get a ~15% gap, which isn't enough margin of safety against the very real competitive bear case. I'd want this in the high-$80s to low-$90s — near the anchored-PE read — before I'd call it a fat pitch. At $110 it's a fine hold, a marginal nibble, not a table-pound.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Forward revenue growth guidance and whether NRR is stabilizing or still decelerating
  • Competitive win/loss commentary vs CrowdStrike Falcon Exposure Management and Wiz
  • Magnitude and pace of buyback going forward
  • Any one-time items inflating operating margin or FCF in the trailing period
General Sentiment
-15
Balanced
tail √Σ 50 · head √Σ 65 · conf 6/10

QLYS sits in a sentiment dead zone. The macro tape is neutral (regime score +11, VIX 17), and with a 0.65 beta this name barely feels the cross-currents anyway. The active narrative is a low-intensity, durable 'steady compounder' story - no cult, no euphoria, no panic - which means there is no story engine pulling the multiple up and no narrative collapse pushing it down. In a market that is currently rewarding AI/security cult names (CRWD, PANW, MSFT), QLYS gets passively de-prioritized rather than actively sold.

Tailwinds 3
m35
Low-beta defensive in a neutral tape
Beta 0.65 plus a profitable, cash-generative profile means risk-off bouts barely scratch this name; the VIX-17 calm tape is benign and lets fundamentals carry.
m30
Durable, non-fragile story
The 'boring but dependable cash cow' narrative is durable - there is no fragile bull case to break, which floors the downside on sentiment shocks.
m20
Quiet positive price momentum
Stock trades above analyst targets with positive multi-year momentum, suggesting real-money holders are not abandoning the name despite tepid sell-side tone.
Headwinds 3
m45
Disintermediation sub-narrative
The market story for cybersecurity favors cloud-native consolidators (CRWD, PANW, MSFT); QLYS is cast as the aging incumbent being slowly squeezed. Not a collapse, but a persistent sentiment drag on multiple.
m40
Analyst tone quietly soft
Hold consensus with 4 Sells, target $103 below the $114 print, and zero positive revisions this month. Backward-looking tone is unenthusiastic and provides no sponsorship.
m25
No narrative pull
Minimal intensity, low cult coefficient - QLYS is not on the AI-security buy list that is hoovering up sector flows. Being ignored is itself a mild de-rating force.
Net read: roughly balanced with a slight headwind lean. There is no narrative engine here - QLYS is the 'boring compounder' that the market currently ignores in favor of louder cybersecurity cult names, and analyst tone is quietly soft with a target below spot. But the tape is neutral, beta is low, and the story is durable rather than fragile, so there is no active selling pressure to fight. This is a name where sentiment is a non-event - it neither helps nor hurts much, which means fundamentals and valuation will have to do all the work.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Any QLYS earnings or guidance event that either confirms the disintermediation bear or breaks it - the catalyst that could shift the dormant narrative
  • Sell-side revisions: a wave of downgrades to match the $103 target would turn the drift into active headwind
  • Cybersecurity sector rotation - if flows broaden from mega-cap leaders into laggards, QLYS gets a passive bid
  • VIX breakout above 20 with credit widening - would test how defensive the low-beta tag really is
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
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Three lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), and General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Deep Analysis
Last run: Jun 7, 2026 2:30:22 pm

Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.

0 Company Classification — What type of company is this?
1 Industry Landscape — Where is the industry headed?
2 Company Momentum — Where is this company trending?
3 Forward Projection — 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a DCF Valuation — Present value of future cash flows
4b Earnings Power Value — Floor value — worth with zero growth
4c Anchored PE — Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
4d Reverse DCF — What growth is the market pricing in?
4e Revenue-Based DCF — For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4f Anchored P/S — Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4g Scenario Analysis — Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4h Dividend Discount Model — For dividend/income stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4i Book Value Analysis — For deep value / turnaround stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4j Insider Activity — Are insiders buying or selling?
4f Cash Flow Quality — How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g Debt Maturity Risk — Can it handle its debt?
4h Macro Environment — Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i Sector Intelligence — How does this company compare within its sector?
4j Revenue Confidence — How reliable is the growth projection?
4k Sensitivity Analysis — How fragile is the fair value estimate?
4l Sector Demand Cycle — Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5 AI Investigation — Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b Thesis Evaluation — What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
6 Valuation Synthesis — Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 2:31pm (24d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $411.2M $489.7M $554.5M $607.6M $669.1M
Cost of Revenue $89.4M $102.8M $107.5M $111.5M $114.8M
Gross Profit $321.7M $386.9M $447.0M $496.1M $554.4M
Operating Expenses $234.1M $256.4M $283.9M $308.9M $332.4M
Operating Income $87.7M $130.5M $163.1M $187.2M $222.0M
Net Income $71.0M $108.0M $151.6M $173.7M $198.3M
EBITDA $123.6M $165.2M $190.1M $205.7M $261.3M
EPS $1.82 $2.81 $4.11 $4.72 $5.49
EPS (Diluted) — — — — —
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 2, 2026 3:15pm (29d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $137.3M $173.7M $203.7M $232.2M $250.3M
Total Current Assets $546.4M $473.3M $600.0M $585.7M $657.6M
Total Assets $814.6M $700.9M $812.6M $973.5M $1.1B
Current Liabilities $304.3M $352.2M $389.2M $428.4M $467.3M
Long-Term Debt $0 $0 $0 $0 $45.0M
Total Liabilities $377.8M $411.8M $444.4M $496.4M $533.9M
Total Equity $436.7M $289.1M $368.2M $477.1M $561.2M
Retained Earnings -$41.7M -$221.4M -$228.1M -$189.2M -$166.7M
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 2:31pm (24d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $200.6M $198.9M $244.6M $244.1M $309.4M
Capital Expenditure -$25.7M -$24.0M -$8.8M -$12.3M -$5.0M
Free Cash Flow $175.0M $174.9M $235.8M $231.8M $304.4M
Acquisitions (net) -$1.2M -$145.1M $0 $0 $0
Debt Repayment — — — — —
Dividends Paid — — — — —
Stock Buybacks -$130.0M -$317.3M -$170.8M -$139.9M -$183.4M
Net Change in Cash $63.2M $37.9M $29.9M $27.0M $18.1M
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 2:25pm (24d ago)
Metric 2026 2027 2028 2029
Revenue $724.5M
$721.4M – $729.0M
 $775.3M
$769.5M – $782.2M
 $825.0M
$823.9M – $826.2M
 $950.0M
$943.5M – $957.9M
EBITDA $340.1M
$338.7M – $342.2M
 $364.0M
$361.2M – $367.2M
 $387.3M
$386.8M – $387.9M
 $446.0M
$442.9M – $449.7M
Net Income $275.0M
$270.3M – $279.8M
 $306.1M
$292.6M – $319.6M
 $313.4M
$288.0M – $338.7M
 $368.2M
$364.9M – $372.2M
EPS — — — —
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 2:31pm (24d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +19.1% +13.2% +9.6% +10.1%
Gross Profit Growth +20.3% +15.5% +11.0% +11.7%
Operating Income Growth +48.9% +24.9% +14.8% +18.6%
Net Income Growth +52.2% +40.4% +14.6% +14.2%
EBITDA Growth +33.7% +15.1% +8.2% +27.0%
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 2:28pm (24d ago)
Type codes PPurchase SSale AAward / grant MOption exercise FIn-kind (tax) CConversion GGift DReturn to issuer
All SEC Form 4 codes
Open market
P Purchase
Open-market or private purchase of shares.
S Sale
Open-market or private sale of shares.
Compensation (Rule 16b-3)
A Award / grant
Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
D Return to issuer
Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
F In-kind (tax)
Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
I Discretionary
Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
M Option exercise
Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
Derivatives
C Conversion
Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
E Short expiration
Expiration of a short derivative position.
H Long expiration
Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
O OTM exercise
Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
X ITM exercise
Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
Other exempt
G Gift
Bona fide gift of securities.
L Small acquisition
Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
W Inheritance
Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
Z Voting trust
Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
Other
J Other
Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
K Equity swap
Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
U Tender / buyout
Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.

Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.

Date Insider Type Shares Price Value
2026-06-30 Thakar Sumedh S S-Sale 10,000.00 $130.00 $1.3M
2026-06-30 Thakar Sumedh S S-Sale 10,000.00 $135.00 $1.4M
2026-06-30 Thakar Sumedh S S-Sale 10,000.00 $140.00 $1.4M
2026-06-29 Thakar Sumedh S S-Sale 2,700.00 $125.60 $339,128
2026-06-29 Thakar Sumedh S S-Sale 4,994.00 $126.96 $634,025
2026-06-29 Thakar Sumedh S S-Sale 2,306.00 $127.66 $294,384
2026-06-26 Thakar Sumedh S S-Sale 9,800.00 $120.47 $1.2M
2026-06-26 Thakar Sumedh S S-Sale 200.00 $121.10 $24,220
2026-06-22 POSEY BRUCE K S-Sale 48.00 $107.40 $5,155
2026-06-22 POSEY BRUCE K S-Sale 465.00 $108.80 $50,591
2026-06-22 POSEY BRUCE K S-Sale 188.00 $109.84 $20,650
2026-06-22 POSEY BRUCE K S-Sale 41.00 $110.48 $4,530
2026-06-22 POSEY BRUCE K S-Sale 123.00 $111.73 $13,743
2026-06-22 Pfeiffer Wendy S-Sale 500.00 $110.55 $55,275
2026-06-15 Thakar Sumedh S S-Sale 200.00 $112.08 $22,415
2026-06-15 Thakar Sumedh S S-Sale 1,500.00 $114.31 $171,466
2026-06-15 Thakar Sumedh S S-Sale 1,500.00 $115.66 $173,488
2026-06-12 Berquist Thomas S-Sale 939.00 $110.75 $103,994
2026-06-11 Hank Jeffrey P S-Sale 470.00 $108.88 $51,174
2026-06-12 Hank Jeffrey P S-Sale 470.00 $110.75 $52,053
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for QLYS — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Delvantic AI Findings
Independent analyst synthesis · Delvantic - Cairn AI · generated 2026-06-07 14:30:59
Reviews the pipeline's own verdicts

Looking at the raw trajectory first: revenue went $148.7M → $176.6M over seven quarters, a clean linear march of roughly $3-4M sequential adds. That's ~10% YoY holding steady, not decelerating in any meaningful way despite what the "decelerating" tag claims — Q1'26 was +10.4% YoY vs Q4'25 at +10.1%. Net margins are 28-30% and stable. FCF of $304M on $669M revenue is a 45% conversion ratio, which is elite. At $3.87B market cap minus $250M cash, EV is ~$3.62B, putting EV/FCF around 12x. For a sticky-recurring-revenue security business growing low double digits with no debt, that is genuinely cheap on cash yield — roughly an 8.4% FCF yield. The TTM P/E of 19.4x is below the S&P average for a business with 37% ROE and 29% ROIC.

Now the model disagreements. Synthesis says $153 fair value (+39%) but flags "sector contraction." Market Forces calls it a "value trap" with "structural displacement." These are in direct conflict and Market Forces is overreaching — there is zero evidence in the numbers of displacement. Revenue is accelerating slightly in absolute dollars, gross margin expanded from 78% to 83% over five years, operating margin went from 21% to 33%. A company being structurally displaced does not expand operating margin 1,200 bps while compounding revenue at 13% CAGR over four years. The "insider selling confirms skepticism" framing is also weak — the listed sales are tiny (most under 2,000 shares, one at ~10,861) and pattern-consistent with routine 10b5-1 vesting, not a signal. Pre-flight and Narrative are closer to right: this is a steady compounder priced like one.

The contrarian case worth taking seriously is not "displacement" but "growth ceiling plus multiple compression risk." Qualys competes against CrowdStrike (which grew ~30%+ for years), Tenable, Rapid7, and increasingly Microsoft Defender bundling vulnerability management for free inside E5 licenses. The 10% growth rate is durable today but the question is whether it's 10% in 2028 or 4%. If terminal growth drops to mid-single-digits, a 12x EV/FCF is fair, not cheap — you'd want 9-10x, implying ~$85-90. The other contrarian flag: where is total debt and equity? The balance sheet tile is missing those entries, which matters because Qualys has been aggressive with buybacks (share count has been shrinking), and if equity is small/negative due to treasury stock, the 8.6x P/B is misleading. The 29% drawdown from 52-week highs the pre-flight mentions is the market discounting exactly this terminal-growth risk, not a mispricing.

My read: synthesis's $150 target is too aggressive — it's anchoring on a DCF that probably assumes 10%+ growth persists, which is the bull case not the base case. Market Forces' "value trap" call is too bearish — nothing in the financials supports displacement narrative; this is a profitable, cash-gushing, debt-free business. The truth is in between, closer to fair-value-with-modest-upside. At $110, you're paying 12x EV/FCF for a 10%-grower with 45% FCF conversion and a sticky enterprise customer base. That's not a screaming buy but it's a reasonable entry for a quality compounder. Fair value I'd peg at $125-135 (roughly 14-15x EV/FCF, in line with mature SaaS), giving 15-25% upside plus whatever buybacks do to per-share metrics. The Q4'25 → Q1'26 revenue jump being only $1.3M sequential ($175.3M → $176.6M) vs prior quarters averaging $5M+ is the one yellow flag worth watching — if Q2'26 prints another sub-$3M sequential add, the deceleration thesis activates and fair value drops toward $95.

I dissent partially from synthesis (target too high, +39% upside is implausible without a re-rating catalyst that isn't visible) and dissent strongly from Market Forces (the "value trap/displacement" framing is unsupported by the operating data). I agree with the Narrative layer that this is rationally priced as a steady-but-unexciting compounder. Insider selling is noise, not signal. The macro/sector headwind tags are real but Qualys's numbers don't show the damage yet — vulnerability

GPT Critique
Second-opinion review · gpt-4o · generated 2026-06-07 14:31:06
Reviews the Opus findings above
Verdict I align with Opus's assessment of the company being reasonably priced but propose a slightly more conservative fair value range of $120-$130, considering competitive pressures and sector dynamics that could temper future growth.

In analyzing Qualys, Inc., I observe a consistent revenue growth trajectory that reinforces its position as a mature player in the security software space. Over the past seven quarters, revenue has increased from $148.7 million to $176.6 million, maintaining a steady growth rate of approximately 10% year-over-year. This stability is mirrored by net income margins that hover consistently between 28% and 30%, indicating strong operational efficiency. The free cash flow of $304 million on $669 million in revenue translates to a robust conversion rate of 45%, underscoring Qualys's capability to generate significant cash from its operations. Additionally, the lack of debt and a cash reserve of $250.3 million bolster its financial health, allowing it to weather potential market downturns and invest in growth opportunities.

I find myself in agreement with Claude Opus's interpretation regarding the company's financial stability and growth prospects. Opus accurately highlights that the market currently undervalues Qualys when considering its 8.4% free cash flow yield and a trailing P/E ratio of 19.4, which is attractive given its 37% return on equity (ROE) and 29% return on invested capital (ROIC). However, I diverge from Opus’s dismissal of the "value trap" narrative. While I concur that the data does not suggest displacement by competitors, it is prudent to acknowledge the competitive pressure from companies like CrowdStrike and Microsoft, which could indeed cap Qualys's future growth potential, especially if they leverage their larger platforms to offer integrated security solutions.

Opus challenges the "sector contraction" warning, suggesting it conflicts with Qualys's expanding margins and growth. Here, I partially agree with Opus; margin expansion from 78% to 83% gross margin over five years indeed contradicts a displacement narrative. Nonetheless, the broader sectoral headwinds and competitive dynamics should not be entirely dismissed, as they might influence Qualys's market positioning and pricing power in the longer term, potentially affecting its growth trajectory.

A careful skeptic might argue that both Opus's and my perspectives underestimate the potential impact of evolving market dynamics. Specifically, skeptics would point to the insider selling activity as an underappreciated signal of internal sentiment regarding growth prospects, despite our joint view that these transactions are routine. Furthermore, the absence of total debt and equity figures raises questions about the company's capital structure and its capacity to sustain current buyback strategies, which could influence future earnings per share (EPS) growth.

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My Notes personal — only you see this
Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · fmp
v1.1.367 · 8fb65fa8 · 2026-07-01 20:05:31