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AGING Analysis Report
Jun 18, 2026
9 days ago · 100% complete · +8 refreshed

American Eagle Outfitters, Inc.

AEO NYSE Categories PDF
Consumer Cyclical · Apparel - Retail
Pittsburgh, PA 15203-2329, United States IPO 1994 aeo-inc.com Updated Jun 18, 3:00am
Price
$17.10
Market Cap
$2.9B
Employees
9,000
Beta
1.31
Avg Volume
5,408,331
CEO
Jay L. Schottenstein
Business Description

American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (AEO) operates as a distinct fashion and lifestyle retail enterprise, offering a wide array of clothing, accessories, and personal care items. Its primary offerings are sold under the established American Eagle and Aerie labels. The American Eagle brand features various jeans, specialized apparel, and fashion accessories catering to both men and women. Conversely, the Aerie brand targets female customers with its collections of intimates, general clothing, activewear, swimwear, and personal care products. Additionally, AEO markets graphic t-shirts and other apparel via its Tailgate brand, and provides upscale menswear through its Todd Snyder New York division. As of January 29, 2022, the company managed a significant physical retail presence, including 880 American Eagle stores, 244 standalone Aerie boutiques, and 5 Todd Snyder outlets, located across the United States, Canada, Mexico, and Hong Kong. Globally, AEO extends its reach by shipping to 81 countries through its dedicated e-commerce sites: ae.com, aerie.com, and toddsnyder.com. Its merchandise is also distributed through 260 licensed establishments operating in 28 nations. Established in 1977, American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

Business History
Generated: Jun 18, 2026 3:02am
Price Overview
Last updated: Jun 18, 2026 3:00am (9d ago)
$17.10
-0.44 (-2.51%)
Day Range
$17.05 – $18.38
52-Week Range
$9.46 – $28.46
50-Day MA
$17.26
200-Day MA
$19.73
Volume
4,067,847.00
Analyst Price Targets
Low $16.00
Consensus $19.25
High $22.00
(36 analysts)
Share Structure
Outstanding 167,573,000.00
Float 155,797,955.00
Free Float 93.0%
High free float — 93.0% of shares trade freely, ~7% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jun 18, 2026 3:06am (9d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jun 18, 2026 3:06am (9d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
API Direct from provider CALC Derived from statements
Industry comparison last run: Jun 18, 2026 3:02am
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
API
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
10.24
Stock Price: $17.10
EPS (Diluted): 1.12
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
API
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
2.37
Stock Price: $17.10
Total Equity: $1.69B
Shares: 176,141,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
API
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
7.83
Market Cap: $2.87B
Total Debt: $318.08M
Cash: $238.92M
EBITDA: $465.46M
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
API
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$5.5B
Market Cap: $2.87B
Total Debt: $318.08M
Cash: $238.92M
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
API
Gross Profit / Revenue
33.0%
Gross Profit: $1.81B
Revenue: $5.50B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
API
Operating Income / Revenue
6.0%
Operating Income: $327.83M
Revenue: $5.50B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
API
Net Income / Revenue
3.5%
Net Income: $191.98M
Revenue: $5.50B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
API
Net Income / Total Equity
17.2%
Net Income: $191.98M
Total Equity: $1.69B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
API
NOPAT / Invested Capital
8.9%
Operating Income: $327.83M
Tax Rate: 25.6%
Equity: $1.69B
Total Debt: $318.08M
Cash: $238.92M
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
API
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
1.52
Current Assets: $1.31B
Current Liabilities: $865.64M
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
CALC
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.19
Short-Term Debt: $318.08M
Long-Term Debt: $0.00
Total Debt: $318.08M
Total Equity: $1.69B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
CALC
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$31.21
Revenue: $5.50B
Shares: 176,141,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
CALC
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$9.60
Total Equity: $1.69B
Shares: 176,141,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
CALC
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$1.11
Operating CF: $456.18M
CapEx: -$260.80M
Shares: 176,141,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
API
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
2.1%
Last Dividend: N/A
Stock Price: $17.10
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
Dividends Paid / Net Income
—
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $191.98M
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Jun 18, 2026 3:01am
Compares AEO against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · three lenses
Three separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-06-18 03:08:20
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality-lite, modestly cheap — starter position, scale on weakness 6/10
Quality +16 and value +16 line up on a competent, cash-generative mall retailer that's modestly cheap — worth a starter, not a table-pound.
The cruxWhether operating margins stabilize near the current ~6% or keep sliding — that single variable decides if 'normalized' earnings (and the $19-22 deserved value) hold up.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from AEO's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionShare Count Shrinking
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The three lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+16
Solid
edge √Σ 110 · risk √Σ 95 · conf 6/10

AEO is a mature specialty apparel operator throwing off real cash — $195M FCF on $5.5B revenue in the latest year, with cumulative FCF of ~$1.07B over five years. Earnings quality screens cleanly: OCF/NI of 2.24x, negative accruals (-5.4% of assets), Beneish M at -2.77, and Altman Z of 3.38 all argue the reported numbers are real. Capital return is genuine, not cosmetic — diluted shares fell from 206.5M to 176.1M (a 14.7% reduction over four years, -3.9% CAGR) with buyback/SBC of 294%, so per-share value is actually being concentrated.

The concern is the operating trajectory. Operating margin peaked at 12.1% in 2022 and has not recovered, printing 5.5 / 7.0 / 8.4 / 6.0% since. Net income in the latest year ($192M) is less than half of 2022's $420M despite revenue being ~10% higher, meaning AEO is running harder to stand still. Gross margin is range-bound at 33-36% with no upward trend. The balance sheet is a constraint rather than a cushion: net cash is -$79M and short-term debt of $318M exceeds the $239M liquid cash position, so refinancing/lease obligations matter.

Net-net: a competent, cash-generative, shareholder-friendly mall-based apparel business with no accounting funny business, but with eroding profitability and no demonstrated moat in the numbers — a Solid, not Strong, operator.

Strengths 3
m70
Real share count reduction
Diluted shares fell 206.5M → 176.1M (-14.7% over four years, -3.9% CAGR) with buyback/SBC of 294% — SBC at 1.5% of revenue is modest and is being more than offset.
m65
Clean earnings quality
OCF/NI 2.24x, accruals -5.4% of assets, Beneish M -2.77, Altman Z 3.38 (safe zone). No mechanical red flags — reported earnings appear to be backed by cash.
m55
Consistent FCF generation
Positive FCF every year 2022-2026 ($69.8M, $145.9M, $406.3M, $254.3M, $195.4M); cumulative ~$1.07B funds buybacks without external capital.
Concerns 4
m65
Margin and earnings erosion
Operating margin 12.1% (2022) → 6.0% (2026); net income $420M → $192M despite revenue rising from $5.01B to $5.50B. Profitability has structurally stepped down and not recovered.
m50
Net debt with near-term maturity risk
Net cash -$79M; short-term debt $318M exceeds liquid cash of $239M. Balance sheet is workable given FCF but is a constraint, not a cushion.
m40
No evident moat in the numbers
Gross margin oscillates 30.9-36.5% with no upward trend; revenue CAGR ~2.4% over four years. Classic mall-based apparel economics — fashion-cycle exposed, no pricing power visible in the trend.
m25
Insider behavior neutral-to-slightly-negative
Two small open-market sales (~$100K total) and routine awards; no open-market buying despite the margin compression. Not alarming, but no insider conviction either.
This is a competently run, shareholder-aware mature retailer — the buybacks are real, the accounting looks clean, and the cash generation is durable. But I'm not going to call it great. Operating margins have been cut roughly in half from the 2022 peak and haven't recovered, net income in the latest year is less than half of four years ago, and there's no evidence in these numbers of a widening moat — it's mall apparel, fashion-cycle exposed, with modest top-line growth. The balance sheet is fine but not a fortress (net debt, short-term debt above cash). Per-share value is being protected by buybacks rather than created by improving economics. Solid, not Strong.
Verify before trusting this (6)
  • Composition of short-term debt — is the $318M a revolver draw, a term-loan maturity, or current portion of operating leases?
  • Aerie vs American Eagle segment margins — is the brand mix masking deterioration in the core AE banner?
  • Inventory days and markdown cadence over the period to confirm gross-margin pressure is cyclical vs structural
  • Store fleet count and lease commitments — operating-lease liability scale relative to FCF
  • Quaint/Supply Chain initiative status (logistics investment) and whether capex normalizes lower going forward
  • Schottenstein family holdings and any 10b5-1 plans behind the recurring small sales
Valuation / Mispricing
+16
Modestly Cheap
edge √Σ 79 · risk √Σ 63 · conf 6/10
Price $17.10 vs deserved ~$19-22, ~10-25% margin of safety — modestly cheap, not deeply so. attractive below $14.50

AEO trades at $17.10 for a $2.87B market cap on a business that still throws off real cash and runs clean accounting. On trailing earnings the multiple sits in the high single digits, and the FCF yield is comfortably above the 10Y — that's a price that already discounts the bear case of structural mall decline and Aerie cannibalization. Deserved value on a 'mature, no-growth, cash-generative specialty retailer' frame is roughly $19-22 (8-9x normalized earnings plus modest buyback accretion), putting the gap at ~10-25% — meaningful but not heroic.

Cheap signals 3
m55
Reasonable multiple on a cash generator
Trading at roughly 8-9x earnings with a mid-single-digit+ FCF yield on a business with clean earnings quality and active buybacks. That's a price that assumes secular decline, not stability.
m45
Real buyback math compounds shareholder value
Buybacks at this multiple are accretive; management has been shrinking the share count, which lowers the deserved price-per-share threshold for ownership and provides a soft floor.
m35
Bear case appears partially priced in
Mall-retailer skepticism and Aerie cannibalization fears are well-known; the stock isn't trading like Aerie's growth is being credited. Any stabilization in core AE margins would re-rate the multiple.
Rich / priced-in 3
m50
Margins have not recovered and net income is sliding
Operating margins are roughly half the 2022 peak with no inflection, and latest-year net income is less than half of four years ago. The 'normalized earnings' I'm capitalizing may itself be too high — deserved value shrinks if the slide continues.
m30
No widening moat to justify multiple expansion
Quality lens explicitly notes no evidence of a widening moat. That means the deserved multiple is a mature-retailer 8-10x, not a 12-15x growth re-rate — capping upside even if the thesis works.
m25
E2E 'disconnected from fundamentals' label needs skepticism
When a composite fair value flags a large gap on a cyclical apparel retailer, it often reflects a DCF over-extrapolating recent FCF. I'm not taking a 2x+ fair value at face value here.
Modestly cheap, not deeply cheap. At $17 I'm getting a clean-accounting cash generator with real buybacks at ~8-9x earnings, which is a fair-to-good price for what is essentially a no-growth mature retailer. But the margin slide is real and I'm not going to pretend the 2022 earnings power is coming back, so my deserved value lives around $19-22, not the e2e moonshot. I'd want it closer to $14-15 to take a real position; here, it's a watch-and-nibble, not a back-up-the-truck.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Next-quarter operating margin trajectory — is the slide bottoming or continuing?
  • Aerie comp growth vs American Eagle comp growth — is Aerie genuinely incremental or just offsetting AE declines?
  • Inventory levels and markdown cadence — early warning of margin pressure
  • Buyback pace and remaining authorization — capital return is core to the thesis
  • Any guidance on SG&A or capex normalization that would change normalized FCF
General Sentiment
-33
Balanced
tail √Σ 43 · head √Σ 76 · conf 6/10

The macro tape is neutral with a slight risk-off lean (VIX 17.3, S&P 1.8% off highs, 10y at 4.49%), and AEO's 1.31 beta means any tape deterioration hits harder than the index. Apparel retail is a discretionary, consumer-cyclical pocket that gets sold first when rates stay sticky and recession chatter resurfaces, so the macro overlay is a mild but real headwind on this specific name. There is no euphoric flow into mall apparel right now; the cohort trades on skepticism. The active narrative is a moderate-intensity, moderate-durability turnaround bet centered on Aerie. That story is alive but not hot - no cult following, no momentum chase, no meme energy. Analyst tone confirms the lukewarm read: Hold consensus, 24 Buys vs 26 Holds, target only 8% above spot, and recent revisions barely nudging higher ($19.33 avg). That is the textbook profile of a name the Street has moved on from rather than is leaning into. Nothing is breaking, but nothing is pulling capital in either. Net: the Aerie story provides just enough floor to neutralize the cyclical/macro drag, but there is no live catalyst pushing the stock up. Pressure is balanced, tilting slightly negative if the tape cracks.

Tailwinds 2
m35
Aerie turnaround story intact
The Aerie-led turnaround narrative is moderate intensity and still credible, giving the stock a sentiment floor and a reason for value/turnaround buyers to stay engaged.
m25
Mildly positive target revisions
Three upward revisions this month with an average target of $19.33 vs $19.25 consensus signals analysts are inching constructive, not capitulating.
Headwinds 4
m45
High-beta name in a fragile tape
Beta 1.31 plus a discretionary apparel exposure means any move from neutral toward risk-off gets amplified here; VIX already elevated vs its own year.
m40
Structural mall-retail skepticism
The bear frame (legacy mall retailer, Aerie cannibalizing AE, no DTC moat vs LULU) is the default Street prior on this cohort and caps multiple expansion.
m35
Analyst tone is apathetic
Hold consensus with only 8% upside to target and zero Strong Buys reflects a Street that is bored, not bullish - a sentiment ceiling more than a catalyst.
m30
Sticky rates pressure consumer cyclicals
10y at 4.49% keeps discretionary apparel under macro pressure as consumer wallet concerns dominate the sector narrative.
I read this as genuinely balanced with a slight negative tilt. There is no narrative tailwind worth chasing - the Aerie story is real but tired, and the Street has settled into a Hold posture that caps near-term enthusiasm. Meanwhile a 1.31 beta in a discretionary mall-apparel name leaves AEO exposed if the neutral tape rolls over. Nothing here is pushing the stock up; the question is just whether the macro lets it sit. I would treat sentiment as a non-helper, not a catalyst either way.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Next comp print and Aerie growth rate - a deceleration below 20% would crack the only live bull story
  • Holiday/back-to-school read-throughs from peers (URBN, ANF) that could rotate sentiment into or out of teen apparel
  • VIX trajectory and any break of the neutral regime - high-beta cyclicals re-rate fast on tape shifts
  • Whether revisions continue trickling up or stall - a stalled revision trend confirms apathy
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
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Three lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), and General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Deep Analysis
Last run: Jun 18, 2026 3:05:33 am

Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.

0 Company Classification — What type of company is this?
1 Industry Landscape — Where is the industry headed?
2 Company Momentum — Where is this company trending?
3 Forward Projection — 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a DCF Valuation — Present value of future cash flows
4b Earnings Power Value — Floor value — worth with zero growth
4c Anchored PE — Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
4d Reverse DCF — What growth is the market pricing in?
4e Revenue-Based DCF — For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4f Anchored P/S — Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4g Scenario Analysis — Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4h Dividend Discount Model — For dividend/income stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4i Book Value Analysis — For deep value / turnaround stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4j Insider Activity — Are insiders buying or selling?
4f Cash Flow Quality — How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g Debt Maturity Risk — Can it handle its debt?
4h Macro Environment — Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i Sector Intelligence — How does this company compare within its sector?
4j Revenue Confidence — How reliable is the growth projection?
4k Sensitivity Analysis — How fragile is the fair value estimate?
4l Sector Demand Cycle — Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5 AI Investigation — Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b Thesis Evaluation — What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
6 Valuation Synthesis — Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 18, 2026 3:06am (9d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Revenue $5.0B $5.0B $5.3B $5.3B $5.5B
Cost of Revenue $3.2B $3.4B $3.4B $3.4B $3.7B
Gross Profit $1.8B $1.5B $1.8B $1.9B $1.8B
Operating Expenses $1.2B $1.3B $1.4B $1.4B $1.5B
Operating Income $607.4M $273.7M $368.0M $450.0M $327.8M
Net Income $419.6M $125.1M $170.0M $329.4M $192.0M
EBITDA $756.4M $405.0M $477.0M $658.9M $465.5M
EPS $2.50 $0.69 $0.87 $1.71 $1.12
EPS (Diluted) — — — — —
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 18, 2026 3:00am (9d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Cash & Equivalents $434.8M $170.2M $354.1M $309.0M $238.9M
Total Current Assets $1.4B $1.1B $1.4B $1.4B $1.3B
Total Assets $3.8B $3.4B $3.6B $3.8B $4.0B
Current Liabilities $842.9M $768.9M $891.2M $882.7M $865.6M
Long-Term Debt $341.0M $8.9M $0 $0 $0
Total Liabilities $2.4B $1.8B $1.8B $2.1B $2.4B
Total Equity $1.4B $1.6B $1.7B $1.8B $1.7B
Retained Earnings $2.2B $2.1B $2.2B $2.5B $2.6B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 18, 2026 3:06am (9d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Operating Cash Flow $303.7M $406.3M $580.7M $476.8M $456.2M
Capital Expenditure -$233.8M -$260.4M -$174.4M -$222.5M -$260.8M
Free Cash Flow $69.8M $145.9M $406.3M $254.3M $195.4M
Acquisitions (net) -$358.2M $0 $0 -$35.0M $0
Debt Repayment — — — — —
Dividends Paid — — — — —
Stock Buybacks -$24.0M -$209.8M -$30.9M -$204.7M -$266.7M
Net Change in Cash -$415.7M -$264.6M $183.9M -$45.1M -$70.0M
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 18, 2026 3:00am (9d ago)
Metric 2026 2027 2028 2029
Revenue $5.5B
$5.4B – $5.5B
 $5.8B
$5.8B – $5.8B
 $6.0B
$6.0B – $6.0B
 $6.2B
$6.2B – $6.3B
EBITDA $581.4M
$578.3M – $583.6M
 $616.0M
$612.9M – $619.2M
 $637.0M
$632.7M – $642.3M
 $661.2M
$655.2M – $667.7M
Net Income $238.6M
$228.8M – $248.4M
 $302.7M
$296.2M – $320.7M
 $332.3M
$287.4M – $370.5M
 $407.5M
$402.6M – $412.7M
EPS — — — —
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 18, 2026 3:06am (9d ago)
Metric 2023 2024 2025 2026
Revenue Growth -0.4% +5.4% +1.3% +3.2%
Gross Profit Growth -15.7% +17.5% +3.8% -3.6%
Operating Income Growth -54.9% +34.5% +22.3% -27.1%
Net Income Growth -70.2% +35.9% +93.7% -41.7%
EBITDA Growth -46.5% +17.8% +38.1% -29.4%
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 18, 2026 3:05am (9d ago)
Type codes PPurchase SSale AAward / grant MOption exercise FIn-kind (tax) CConversion GGift DReturn to issuer
All SEC Form 4 codes
Open market
P Purchase
Open-market or private purchase of shares.
S Sale
Open-market or private sale of shares.
Compensation (Rule 16b-3)
A Award / grant
Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
D Return to issuer
Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
F In-kind (tax)
Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
I Discretionary
Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
M Option exercise
Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
Derivatives
C Conversion
Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
E Short expiration
Expiration of a short derivative position.
H Long expiration
Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
O OTM exercise
Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
X ITM exercise
Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
Other exempt
G Gift
Bona fide gift of securities.
L Small acquisition
Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
W Inheritance
Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
Z Voting trust
Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
Other
J Other
Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
K Equity swap
Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
U Tender / buyout
Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.

Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.

Date Insider Type Shares Price Value
2026-04-24 Spiegel Noel Joseph A-Award 1,216.00 $0.00 $0
2026-04-24 Sable David M. A-Award 329.00 $0.00 $0
2026-04-24 PAGE JANICE E A-Award 26.00 $0.00 $0
2026-04-24 MCMILLAN CARY D A-Award 1,267.00 $0.00 $0
2026-04-24 HENRETTA DEBORAH A A-Award 612.00 $0.00 $0
2026-04-24 SCHOTTENSTEIN JAY L A-Award 1,781.00 $0.00 $0
2026-04-24 Mathias Michael A. A-Award 350.00 $0.00 $0
2026-04-24 Keefer James H JR A-Award 136.00 $0.00 $0
2026-04-24 Chandrasekaran Sujatha A-Award 208.00 $0.00 $0
2026-04-24 Henke Beth M A-Award 177.00 $0.00 $0
2026-04-24 Foyle Jennifer M. A-Award 915.00 $0.00 $0
2026-04-24 Baldwin Marisa A-Award 192.00 $0.00 $0
2026-04-06 MCMILLAN CARY D S-Sale 2,887.00 $17.23 $49,729
2026-04-06 Spiegel Noel Joseph S-Sale 2,887.00 $17.32 $50,003
2026-04-02 SCHOTTENSTEIN JAY L M-Exempt 79,361.00 $0.00 $0
2026-04-02 SCHOTTENSTEIN JAY L F-InKind 31,610.00 $16.84 $532,312
2026-04-02 SCHOTTENSTEIN JAY L M-Exempt 50,066.00 $0.00 $0
2026-04-02 SCHOTTENSTEIN JAY L M-Exempt 25,988.00 $0.00 $0
2026-04-02 SCHOTTENSTEIN JAY L M-Exempt 3,307.00 $0.00 $0
2026-04-02 Mathias Michael A. M-Exempt 15,622.00 $0.00 $0
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jun 18, 2026 3:00am (9d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-07-10 $0.13 2026-06-09 2026-07-10 2026-07-24
2026-04-10 $0.13 2026-03-02 2026-04-10 2026-04-24
2026-01-09 $0.13 2025-12-03 2026-01-09 2026-01-23
2025-10-10 $0.13 2025-09-16 2025-10-10 2025-10-29
2025-07-11 $0.13 2025-06-04 2025-07-11 2025-07-25
2025-04-11 $0.13 2025-03-13 2025-04-11 2025-04-25
2025-01-10 $0.13 2024-12-10 2025-01-10 2025-01-24
2024-10-11 $0.13 2024-09-24 2024-10-11 2024-10-30
2024-07-12 $0.13 2024-06-04 2024-07-12 2024-07-26
2024-04-11 $0.13 2024-03-04 2024-04-12 2024-04-26
2024-01-04 $0.13 2023-12-13 2024-01-05 2024-01-19
2023-10-12 $0.10 2023-09-13 2023-10-13 2023-10-27
2023-07-06 $0.10 2023-06-07 2023-07-07 2023-07-21
2023-04-05 $0.10 2023-02-28 2023-04-06 2023-04-21
2022-07-07 $0.18 2022-06-08 2022-07-08 2022-07-22
2022-03-10 $0.18 2022-03-01 2022-03-11 2022-03-24
2021-12-09 $0.18 2021-11-22 2021-12-10 2021-12-29
2021-10-07 $0.18 2021-09-09 2021-10-08 2021-10-22
2021-07-08 $0.18 2021-06-03 2021-07-09 2021-07-23
2021-03-11 $0.14 2021-03-02 2021-03-12 2021-03-26
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for AEO — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Delvantic AI Findings
Independent analyst synthesis · Delvantic - Cairn AI · generated 2026-06-18 03:06:07
Reviews the pipeline's own verdicts
Verdict Fairly valued, not disconnected — fair value $16-20 given 42% YoY earnings decline and Q1 margin collapse to 2%; wait for Q2 print to confirm margin direction before committing capital.

The raw numbers tell a less dramatic story than either the bull synthesis or the bearish market-forces note. Revenue is essentially flat-to-creeping: $5.01B → $4.99B → $5.26B → $5.33B → $5.50B over five years — a 2.2% CAGR with no real acceleration. Annual operating income peaked at $607M in FY22 (post-COVID stimulus bounce), collapsed to $274M, recovered to $450M, then dropped back to $328M in the most recent year. That's not a melting ice cube, but it's also not "margins stabilizing" — it's a business oscillating in a 5-9% operating margin band with no clear trend. The most recent quarter (May 2026) is alarming: revenue $1.20B vs $1.09B prior-year Q1 looks like growth, but net margin compressed to 2% from a normalized 6%, and full-year FY26 net income fell 42% YoY to $192M from $329M. That's the real signal the synthesis layer underweights.

I disagree with the synthesis verdict of "Disconnected from Fundamentals." The reverse-DCF claim that the market implies -8.1% FCF contraction assumes $456M FCF is durable — but capex is reported as $0, which is almost certainly wrong for a 850-store specialty retailer and means reported FCF is overstated. Real maintenance capex for AEO historically runs $150-250M, which would put true FCF closer to $200-300M and the FCF yield closer to 7-10%, not 16%. At a more honest $250M owner earnings on a $2.87B cap, you're paying ~11.5x — reasonable for a no-growth mall retailer with cyclical earnings, not a screaming bargain. The 10.2x P/E on TTM earnings that are already down 42% YoY is the more relevant anchor, and forward earnings could compress further if the Q1 margin trend persists.

The market-forces "avoid until clear separation narrative" take is too dismissive of the cash generation, but directionally closer to right than the synthesis. The contrarian-to-the-contrarian argument: AEO has survived every "death of the mall" cycle since 2015, pays a 2.1% dividend, buys back stock, and Aerie is a real $1.7B+ subscale brand that any strategic (or PE buyer at 6-7x EBITDA = $20-22/share) could unlock. Insider activity is uninformative — ten A-Awards on the same day is comp grants, not conviction buying or selling. No open-market purchases at $17 is itself a mild negative given the stock is near the low end of its $9.46-$28.46 range. Balance sheet data is incomplete (no total debt, no equity disclosed), which is a real gap — AEO historically carries operating leases that materially change the EV picture, and ev_to_ebitda of 7.8x may understate true leverage-adjusted value.

Net: the bull case requires Q1's margin collapse to be a one-off (tariffs? markdowns? Aerie inventory?) and FY27 earnings to revert to $280-320M. The bear case requires the trajectory from $329M → $192M → $150M to continue. At $17, you're paying roughly fair value for the no-change scenario and getting optionality on either Aerie inflection or a take-private bid. I don't think this is "disconnected from fundamentals" — I think the market correctly identified deteriorating earnings momentum that the synthesis layer glossed over by anchoring on stale TTM FCF. Fair value is $16-20 on current trajectory; you need evidence the Q1 margin print isn't the start of a step-down before sizing up.

GPT Critique
Second-opinion review · gpt-4o · generated 2026-06-18 03:06:15
Reviews the Opus findings above
Verdict I align with Opus's valuation range of $16-20, seeing it as fairly valued given earnings decline and margin pressure. However, I am more optimistic about Aerie's potential to stabilize future growth, warranting cautious optimism contingent on upcoming performance improvements.

American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) presents an intriguing yet challenging case. The company's recent financial performance exhibits some troubling trends, notably in their quarterly earnings. In the most recent quarter (May 2026), AEO reported $1.20 billion in revenue, a modest increase from the previous year, but net income margins shrank significantly to 2%, a stark contrast to the more robust 6% to 6.7% margins seen in earlier quarters. This margin compression suggests potential issues in cost management or pricing power. Additionally, the annual results show a notable drop in net income from $329.4 million in 2025 to $192 million in 2026, a 42% decline, underscoring the challenges AEO faces in maintaining profitability amidst flat revenue growth.

I find myself agreeing with Opus's assessment that the market is not fundamentally disconnected in its valuation of AEO. The reverse-DCF analysis suggesting an implied -8.1% FCF contraction may indeed overstate the company's cash flow potential, as Opus points out the improbability of zero capex for a retailer of AEO's size. Adjusting for a more realistic capex of $150-250 million, the free cash flow yield indeed seems overstated, painting a picture of a company with less financial leeway than the raw numbers suggest.

Where I diverge from Opus is in the interpretation of market dynamics and the potential of Aerie. The Delvantic AI Findings dismiss the synthesis layer's narrative of being "disconnected from fundamentals" as too optimistic, but I see the Aerie brand's potential to drive future growth as a critical factor that is perhaps underappreciated. Despite the structural headwinds faced by American Eagle's core brand, Aerie has shown significant growth, and its potential to offset declines in the American Eagle brand should not be underestimated. The market's pricing as a high-beta option on Aerie's growth is somewhat justified, given the brand's trajectory and the competitive landscape.

A careful skeptic might argue that both my view and Opus's could be overlooking the broader retail macroeconomic challenges, such as shifts in consumer spending patterns post-COVID, ongoing supply chain disruptions, and the intensifying competition from digital-native brands. These factors could further compress margins and stymie revenue growth, making both the bull and bear cases more precarious.

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My Notes personal — only you see this
Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · fmp
v1.1.352 · d1100787 · 2026-06-26 11:39:30