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AGING Analysis Report
Jun 7, 2026
19 days ago · 100% complete

First Solar, Inc.

FSLR NASDAQ Categories PDF
Energy · Solar
Phoenix, AZ 85018, United States IPO 2006 firstsolar.com Updated Jun 7, 5:14pm
Price
$279.01
Market Cap
$30.0B
Employees
8,100
Beta
1.69
Avg Volume
2,341,822
CEO
Mark R. Widmar
Business Description

First Solar, Inc. provides photovoltaic (PV) solar energy solutions in the United State, Japan, France, Canada, India, Australia, and internationally. The company designs, manufactures, and sells cadmium telluride solar modules that converts sunlight into electricity. It serves developers and operators of systems, utilities, independent power producers, commercial and industrial companies, and other system owners. The company was formerly known as First Solar Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to First Solar, Inc. in 2006. First Solar, Inc. was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Tempe, Arizona.

Business History
Generated: Jun 7, 2026 5:17pm
Price Overview
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:14pm (19d ago)
$279.01
-35.94 (-11.41%)
Day Range
$276.06 – $306.55
52-Week Range
$135.50 – $320.95
50-Day MA
$219.85
200-Day MA
$229.48
Volume
3,903,926.00
Analyst Price Targets
Low $205.00
Consensus $257.08
High $326.00
(118 analysts)
Share Structure
Outstanding 107,453,000.00
Float 101,613,273.00
Free Float 94.6%
High free float — 94.6% of shares trade freely, ~5.4% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:20pm (19d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:20pm (19d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
API Direct from provider CALC Derived from statements
Industry comparison last run: Jun 7, 2026 5:16pm
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
API
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
17.99
Stock Price: $279.01
EPS (Diluted): 14.25
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
API
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
2.94
Stock Price: $279.01
Total Equity: $9.54B
Shares: 107,537,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
API
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
11.94
Market Cap: $29.98B
Total Debt: $498.57M
Cash: $2.80B
EBITDA: $2.21B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
API
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$25.7B
Market Cap: $29.98B
Total Debt: $498.57M
Cash: $2.80B
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
API
Gross Profit / Revenue
40.6%
Gross Profit: $2.12B
Revenue: $5.22B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
API
Operating Income / Revenue
32.3%
Operating Income: $1.68B
Revenue: $5.22B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
API
Net Income / Revenue
29.3%
Net Income: $1.53B
Revenue: $5.22B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
API
Net Income / Total Equity
18.0%
Net Income: $1.53B
Total Equity: $9.54B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
API
NOPAT / Invested Capital
15.4%
Operating Income: $1.68B
Tax Rate: 3.3%
Equity: $9.54B
Total Debt: $498.57M
Cash: $2.80B
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
API
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
2.67
Current Assets: $6.03B
Current Liabilities: $2.25B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
CALC
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.05
Short-Term Debt: $215.98M
Long-Term Debt: $282.59M
Total Debt: $498.57M
Total Equity: $9.54B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
CALC
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$48.54
Revenue: $5.22B
Shares: 107,537,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
CALC
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$88.69
Total Equity: $9.54B
Shares: 107,537,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
CALC
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$11.04
Operating CF: $2.06B
CapEx: -$869.88M
Shares: 107,537,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
API
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
0.0%
Last Dividend: N/A
Stock Price: $279.01
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $1.53B
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Jun 7, 2026 5:16pm
Compares FSLR against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Deep Analysis
Last run: Jun 7, 2026 5:20:07 pm

Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.

0 Company Classification — What type of company is this?
1 Industry Landscape — Where is the industry headed?
2 Company Momentum — Where is this company trending?
3 Forward Projection — 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a DCF Valuation — Present value of future cash flows
4b Earnings Power Value — Floor value — worth with zero growth
4c Anchored PE — Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
4d Reverse DCF — What growth is the market pricing in?
4e Revenue-Based DCF — For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4f Anchored P/S — Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4g Scenario Analysis — Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4h Dividend Discount Model — For dividend/income stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4i Book Value Analysis — For deep value / turnaround stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4j Insider Activity — Are insiders buying or selling?
4f Cash Flow Quality — How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g Debt Maturity Risk — Can it handle its debt?
4h Macro Environment — Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i Sector Intelligence — How does this company compare within its sector?
4j Revenue Confidence — How reliable is the growth projection?
4k Sensitivity Analysis — How fragile is the fair value estimate?
4l Sector Demand Cycle — Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5 AI Investigation — Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b Thesis Evaluation — What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
6 Valuation Synthesis — Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:20pm (19d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $2.9B $2.6B $3.3B $4.2B $5.2B
Cost of Revenue $2.2B $2.5B $2.0B $2.3B $3.1B
Gross Profit $730.0M $69.9M $1.3B $1.9B $2.1B
Operating Expenses $143.2M $97.1M $443.4M $463.4M $437.2M
Operating Income $586.8M -$27.2M $857.3M $1.4B $1.7B
Net Income $468.7M -$44.2M $830.8M $1.3B $1.5B
EBITDA $845.2M $290.5M $1.2B $1.9B $2.2B
EPS $4.41 $-0.41 $7.78 $12.07 $14.25
EPS (Diluted)
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:17pm (19d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $1.5B $1.5B $1.9B $1.6B $2.8B
Total Current Assets $3.2B $3.8B $4.6B $5.1B $6.0B
Total Assets $7.4B $8.3B $10.4B $12.1B $13.3B
Current Liabilities $726.9M $1.0B $1.3B $2.1B $2.3B
Long-Term Debt $236.0M $184.3M $464.1M $373.4M $282.6M
Total Liabilities $1.5B $2.4B $3.7B $4.1B $3.8B
Total Equity $6.0B $5.8B $6.7B $8.0B $9.5B
Retained Earnings $3.2B $3.1B $4.0B $5.3B $0
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:20pm (19d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $237.6M $873.4M $602.3M $1.2B $2.1B
Capital Expenditure -$540.3M -$903.6M -$1.4B -$1.5B -$869.9M
Free Cash Flow -$302.7M -$30.2M -$784.5M -$308.1M $1.2B
Acquisitions (net) $300.5M $442.3M -$28.1M $0 $0
Debt Repayment
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks -$16.0M -$12.1M -$31.1M -$20.2M -$15.5M
Net Change in Cash $182.2M $37.6M $471.6M -$326.8M $1.2B
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:14pm (19d ago)
Metric 2027 2028 2029 2030
Revenue $6.0B
$5.6B – $6.3B
$6.5B
$6.5B – $6.5B
$7.2B
$6.9B – $7.6B
$7.1B
$6.7B – $7.4B
EBITDA $2.0B
$1.8B – $2.0B
$2.1B
$2.1B – $2.1B
$2.4B
$2.2B – $2.5B
$2.3B
$2.2B – $2.4B
Net Income $2.5B
$2.0B – $3.2B
$3.0B
$2.4B – $4.3B
$3.6B
$3.4B – $3.8B
$2.9B
$2.7B – $3.1B
EPS
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:20pm (19d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth -10.4% +26.7% +26.7% +24.1%
Gross Profit Growth -90.4% +1,761.9% +42.8% +14.1%
Operating Income Growth -104.6% +3,247.5% +62.7% +20.7%
Net Income Growth -109.4% +1,981.0% +55.5% +18.3%
EBITDA Growth -65.6% +317.2% +54.2% +18.4%
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:20pm (19d ago)
Type codes PPurchase SSale AAward / grant MOption exercise FIn-kind (tax) CConversion GGift DReturn to issuer
All SEC Form 4 codes
Open market
P Purchase
Open-market or private purchase of shares.
S Sale
Open-market or private sale of shares.
Compensation (Rule 16b-3)
A Award / grant
Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
D Return to issuer
Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
F In-kind (tax)
Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
I Discretionary
Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
M Option exercise
Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
Derivatives
C Conversion
Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
E Short expiration
Expiration of a short derivative position.
H Long expiration
Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
O OTM exercise
Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
X ITM exercise
Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
Other exempt
G Gift
Bona fide gift of securities.
L Small acquisition
Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
W Inheritance
Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
Z Voting trust
Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
Other
J Other
Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
K Equity swap
Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
U Tender / buyout
Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.

Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.

Date Insider Type Shares Price Value
2026-05-28 Stockdale Caroline S-Sale 10,628.00 $275.60 $2.9M
2026-05-22 Widmar Mark R S-Sale 239.00 $250.02 $59,755
2026-05-22 Widmar Mark R S-Sale 172.00 $251.53 $43,263
2026-05-22 Widmar Mark R S-Sale 97.00 $252.87 $24,528
2026-05-22 Widmar Mark R S-Sale 218.00 $253.63 $55,291
2026-05-22 Widmar Mark R S-Sale 916.00 $254.93 $233,516
2026-05-22 Widmar Mark R S-Sale 64.00 $255.59 $16,358
2026-05-22 Widmar Mark R S-Sale 75.00 $256.32 $19,224
2026-05-22 Widmar Mark R S-Sale 149.00 $257.55 $38,375
2026-05-22 Widmar Mark R S-Sale 47.00 $258.48 $12,149
2026-05-26 Widmar Mark R S-Sale 364.00 $265.15 $96,515
2026-05-26 Widmar Mark R S-Sale 1,237.00 $266.60 $329,784
2026-05-26 Widmar Mark R S-Sale 628.00 $267.72 $168,128
2026-05-26 Widmar Mark R S-Sale 1,009.00 $268.89 $271,310
2026-05-26 Widmar Mark R S-Sale 632.00 $270.05 $170,672
2026-05-26 Widmar Mark R S-Sale 726.00 $271.23 $196,913
2026-05-26 Widmar Mark R S-Sale 473.00 $273.17 $129,209
2026-05-26 Widmar Mark R S-Sale 126.00 $276.29 $34,813
2026-05-21 Verma Kuntal Kumar S-Sale 582.00 $250.00 $145,500
2026-05-21 Widmar Mark R S-Sale 672.00 $240.10 $161,347
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for FSLR — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Delvantic AI Findings
Independent analyst synthesis · Delvantic - Cairn AI · generated 2026-06-07 17:20:44
Reviews the pipeline's own verdicts
Verdict Overvalued on policy-continuity premium — normalized fair value $180-200 vs $279; trim/avoid until IRA §45X phase-down risk is clarified or stock re-rates below $220.

The raw numbers tell a cleaner story than the models give them credit for, but with a sharp wrinkle. Revenue scaled from $2.62B (2022) to $5.22B (2025) — a doubling in three years — while net income went from -$44M to $1.53B. Gross margin expanded from 2.7% (2022) to 40.6% (2025). That's not a "mature earner" trajectory; the rule-based classifier is wrong. This is a policy-juiced cyclical manufacturer in the middle of a margin step-function, and the step-function has a name: §45X advanced manufacturing tax credits, which flow through COGS and are the single biggest reason gross margin tripled. Strip them out and the underlying panel economics are far less impressive — this is the central fact the bull narrative tends to elide.

The quarterly trajectory is where I diverge from the "decelerating" framing. Q1 2026 revenue of $1.04B is *down* from Q4 2025's $1.68B and barely above Q1 2025's $844M — only +23% YoY, decelerating from the 35%+ prints earlier in 2025. More importantly, Q1 2026 net income of $347M on $1.04B revenue (33.2% margin) is healthy in isolation but the absolute dollar deceleration from Q4 ($521M NI) is meaningful in a business with this much operating leverage and lumpy module shipment timing. The "Poor Cash Flow Quality" flag deserves attention: $1.53B NI vs $1.19B FCF is fine, but capex of $870M against $2.06B OCF means roughly 42% of operating cash is being plowed back into capacity — capacity that only pays off if IRA persists and module ASPs hold. Either assumption can break.

A careful contrarian would press three points the synthesis underweights. First, the §45X credit is statutorily scheduled to phase down starting 2030 and the Trump administration has openly targeted IRA manufacturing credits — even partial rollback compresses gross margin from 40% toward the high-teens to low-20s structural level, which at current 5.2B revenue implies ~$700M of EBIT evaporation. Second, Chinese crystalline silicon module pricing has collapsed to $0.10/W and CdTe's cost advantage is largely a regulatory artifact in the US market, not a global moat — the "platform-monopoly" narrative archetype is generous; this is a tariff-protected duopolist-ish player, not a network business. Third, the insider selling is small in share count but it's *all* selling, no buying, against a stock that's compounded hard — modest tell, not a smoking gun. The market-forces "Neutral" and synthesis "High Conviction Required" verdicts capture the right tension but bury the asymmetry: the downside if IRA is touched is 40%+, the upside if everything goes right is maybe 30%.

On valuation: 17.9x TTM P/E, 11.9x EV/EBITDA, 5.4x P/S, and 2.9x P/B for a business earning 18% ROE and 15.4% ROIC is *not* expensive on reported numbers — that's the bull's strongest card. But the right way to think about it is normalized: assume §45X credits halve by 2028 and net margin compresses from 29% to ~18% on $7B revenue (assuming continued unit growth), you get ~$1.26B normalized earnings, and a fair multiple for a cyclical manufacturer with policy overhang is 14-16x, giving $17-20B equity value vs $30B today. That's roughly $165-190 per share fair value, suggesting current $279 embeds a 40-50% policy-continuity premium. The synthesis is too soft — "high conviction required" is analyst-speak for "we don't want to call it." I'll call it: this is priced for the IRA to remain fully intact through 2030, and that's a coin flip at best given political reality. Quality business, real earnings, real moat in its protected niche — but the price assumes the protection is permanent. I dissent from the neutral framing and lean negative.

GPT Critique
Second-opinion review · gpt-4o · generated 2026-06-07 17:20:49
Reviews the Opus findings above
Verdict I agree with Opus — the stock is overvalued at $279, but I would peg fair value closer to $190-210, reflecting some optimism about technological resilience against policy risks.

First Solar, Inc. is currently priced at $279.01, with a market cap of $29.98 billion. My independent review of the data reveals a compelling growth story driven by significant revenue increases from $2.62 billion in 2022 to $5.22 billion in 2025, marking a 79% CAGR over the period. This growth is accompanied by a remarkable expansion in net income from a loss of $44.2 million in 2022 to $1.53 billion in 2025. The gross margin improvement from a paltry 2.7% in 2022 to 40.6% in 2025 highlights effective cost management and potentially strategic pricing advantages. However, the reliance on tax credits, specifically the §45X advanced manufacturing tax credits, underscores the vulnerability of First Solar's margins to policy changes. The company's operating cash flow of $2.06 billion and free cash flow of $1.19 billion indicate robust cash generation, although the substantial capex of $870 million suggests heavy reinvestment in growth, which could be risky if external conditions shift unfavorably.

I find myself largely in agreement with Claude Opus's analysis. Opus rightly highlights the heavy reliance on policy-driven incentives like the §45X credits, which critically underpin First Solar's impressive margin expansion. I concur with Opus's point about the potential downside risks associated with a rollback of these credits, which could lead to a significant reduction in margins and earnings. The deceleration in quarterly revenues and net income from Q4 2025 to Q1 2026 further supports Opus's cautious stance. I also share Opus's view that the insider selling activity, although not overwhelmingly large, could serve as a potential red flag in the context of current high valuations.

Where I diverge slightly from Opus is regarding the degree of the downside risk. While Opus suggests a 40-50% policy-continuity premium, I estimate it to be slightly lower, given the company's current market positioning and technological differentiation with CdTe panels, which still offer some competitive edge despite the global pricing pressure from crystalline silicon modules. Moreover, the company's ability to maintain a solid balance sheet with $2.80 billion in cash without significant debt provides a solid buffer against potential headwinds.

A skeptic might argue that both of our analyses overly focus on the risks associated with policy changes, potentially underestimating First Solar's ability to adapt and innovate technologically to maintain competitive advantages. They might also point out the potential for global policy shifts towards renewable energy that could benefit First Solar beyond the US market, mitigating some of the domestic policy risks.

Community AI Feedback
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My Notes personal — only you see this
Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · fmp
v1.1.352 · d1100787 · 2026-06-26 11:39:30