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AGING Analysis Report
Jun 19, 2026
8 days ago · 100% complete · +8 refreshed

Columbia Banking System, Inc.

COLB NASDAQ Categories PDF
Financial Services · Banks - Regional
Tacoma, WA 98402-2156, United States IPO 1992 columbiabank.com Updated Jun 19, 3:00am
Price
$30.55
Market Cap
$7.3B
Employees
4,721
Beta
0.68
Avg Volume
2,914,868
CEO
Clinton E. Stein
Business Description

Columbia Banking System, Inc. serves as the parent organization for Columbia State Bank, which delivers a wide array of banking services to individuals, professionals, and small to medium-sized businesses across the United States. For personal clients, the bank provides diverse deposit accounts, including interest-bearing and non-interest checking, savings, money market, and certificates of deposit. Its lending products feature home mortgages for purchases and refinances, home equity loans and lines of credit, and other personal loan options. Customers also have access to debit and credit cards, along with comprehensive digital banking solutions. Business clients benefit from services such as checking, savings, interest-bearing money market, and certificate of deposit accounts. The company offers a variety of commercial loans, including agricultural, asset-based, builder, and commercial real estate financing, in addition to Small Business Administration (SBA)-guaranteed loans. Further business support includes professional banking, treasury management, merchant card processing, and international banking services. The company also offers wealth management solutions tailored for individuals, families, and professional businesses. These include financial planning services covering asset allocation, net worth analysis, estate planning and preservation, education funding, and wealth transfer. Insurance options such as long-term care, life, and disability are available. Individual retirement solutions encompass planning, income strategies, and Traditional/Roth IRAs, while business solutions include retirement plans, key person insurance, succession planning, and deferred compensation. Furthermore, Columbia Banking System provides fiduciary, investment, and administrative trust services. These specialized offerings include personal and special needs trusts, estate settlement, investment agency, and charitable management. The bank maintains a physical presence through a network of 153 branch locations, with 68 situated in Washington, 59 in Oregon, 15 in Idaho, and 11 in California. Founded in 1993, the company is headquartered in Tacoma, Washington.

Business History
Generated: Jun 19, 2026 3:02am
Price Overview
Last updated: Jun 19, 2026 3:00am (8d ago)
$30.55
+0.50 (+1.66%)
Day Range
$30.13 – $30.63
52-Week Range
$22.12 – $32.70
50-Day MA
$29.58
200-Day MA
$28.20
Volume
5,937,127.00
Analyst Price Targets
Low $30.00
Consensus $32.90
High $37.00
(27 analysts)
Share Structure
Outstanding 238,021,474.00
Float 236,213,995.00
Free Float 99.2%
High free float — 99.2% of shares trade freely, ~0.8% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jun 19, 2026 3:06am (8d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jun 19, 2026 3:06am (8d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
API Direct from provider CALC Derived from statements
Industry comparison last run: Jun 19, 2026 3:02am
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
API
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
13.56
Stock Price: $30.55
EPS (Diluted): 2.31
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
API
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
1.05
Stock Price: $30.55
Total Equity: $7.84B
Shares: 296,760,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
API
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
10.56
Market Cap: $7.27B
Total Debt: $3.89B
Cash: $511.00M
EBITDA: $895.31M
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
API
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$11.8B
Market Cap: $7.27B
Total Debt: $3.89B
Cash: $511.00M
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
API
Gross Profit / Revenue
67.7%
Gross Profit: $2.17B
Revenue: $3.21B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
API
Operating Income / Revenue
23.4%
Operating Income: $751.31M
Revenue: $3.21B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
API
Net Income / Revenue
17.1%
Net Income: $550.03M
Revenue: $3.21B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
API
Net Income / Total Equity
9.2%
Net Income: $550.03M
Total Equity: $7.84B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
API
NOPAT / Invested Capital
21.3%
Operating Income: $751.31M
Tax Rate: 24.5%
Equity: $7.84B
Total Debt: $3.89B
Cash: $511.00M
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
API
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
0.22
Current Assets: $743.00M
Current Liabilities: $3.45B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
CALC
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.50
Short-Term Debt: $3.45B
Long-Term Debt: $435.00M
Total Debt: $3.89B
Total Equity: $7.84B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
CALC
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$10.83
Revenue: $3.21B
Shares: 296,760,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
CALC
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$26.42
Total Equity: $7.84B
Shares: 296,760,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
CALC
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$2.38
Operating CF: $746.00M
CapEx: -$40.00M
Shares: 296,760,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
API
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
4.1%
Last Dividend: N/A
Stock Price: $30.55
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $550.03M
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Jun 19, 2026 3:01am
Compares COLB against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · three lenses
Three separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-06-19 03:08:23
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality-light — starter only, wait for sub-$27 to scale 6/10
Clean, cash-generative regional bank that's modestly cheap but not cheap enough to overlook the 50% share count step-up — patience, not pounding the table.
The cruxWhether management is actually done issuing equity and the merged Umpqua franchise earns its expanded capital base — that determines if today's ~15% discount is real value or just fair price for a diluted story.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from COLB's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionHeavy Dilution
Earnings QualityGood Earnings Quality
The three lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+13
Mixed
edge √Σ 100 · risk √Σ 86 · conf 6/10

Columbia Banking System is a mature regional bank that does generate real cash — FCF of $706M on $3.21B of revenue in the latest year, OCF/NI of 1.85x, accruals of -0.9% of assets, and a Beneish M of -3.24 all point to clean earnings. Revenue has more than doubled from $1.32B (2021) to $3.21B (2025) and net income recovered from a $337M trough in 2022 to $550M, with operating margin rebuilding to 23.4%. By the accounting integrity lens, this is a well-behaved bank.

The problem is per-share value. Diluted shares went from 219.6M (2021) to 195.9M (2023) — buybacks were working — then exploded to 296.8M in 2025, a 7.8% CAGR overall and roughly +50% in two years. That pattern, combined with the 2023 revenue step-up from $1.35B to $2.74B, is the fingerprint of a stock-funded merger (the Umpqua combination). So while aggregate earnings rose ~30% from 2022 to 2025, EPS on the new share count is materially diluted. The 223% buyback/SBC ratio is misleading because actual share-issuance was for M&A, not comp.

Balance sheet flags are partly artifacts of bank accounting — Altman Z of 0.11 and 'short-term debt > cash' are normal for deposit-taking institutions, not distress signals in the industrial sense. Insider tape is neutral-to-mildly-negative: zero open-market buys, small S-sales, mostly routine A-awards and F-inkind tax withholding. Nothing screams conviction from management.

Strengths 3
m70
Clean earnings quality
OCF/NI 1.85x, accruals -0.9% of assets, Beneish M -3.24 — earnings are backed by cash and show no manipulation fingerprints.
m55
Consistent FCF generation
FCF has been positive every year from $647M (2021) to $706M (2025), averaging ~$737M — a genuinely self-funding operation.
m45
Margin recovery and scale
Operating margin rebuilt from 17.2% (2023, merger year) to 23.4% (2025); revenue scaled from $1.35B to $3.21B, suggesting integration is delivering operating leverage.
Concerns 3
m75
Heavy share issuance dilutes per-share value
Diluted shares jumped from 195.9M (2023) to 296.8M (2025), a ~51% increase in two years; 7.8% CAGR overall means aggregate earnings growth substantially overstates per-share progress.
m35
No insider conviction
Zero open-market P-buys in the tape, only small S-sales (~$115K by Moore Devine) and routine awards/tax withholding — no signal of management putting cash on the line.
m25
Gross margin compression post-merger
Reported GM% fell from 100%/88% (2021-22) to 61.5–67.7% (2024-25); likely reflects mix shift to a more interest-expense-heavy book post-Umpqua, but it does mean the revenue quality changed.
This is a competent, cash-generative regional bank that just digested a transformative merger — the accounting looks clean and operations are scaling, but shareholders paid for that growth with a ~50% increase in share count over two years. As a business, it's solidly run; as a per-share compounder, the math is unflattering until management proves they're done issuing equity and the merged franchise earns its higher capital base. The Altman Z distress flag is a false positive for a bank. Net read: a Mixed-quality franchise — neither a fortress nor fragile, leaning Solid on operations but dragged by dilution discipline.
Verify before trusting this (6)
  • Confirm the 2023 share-count step-up and the 2025 jump to 296.8M diluted shares trace to the Umpqua merger and any follow-on capital raises, not ongoing equity funding needs.
  • Net interest margin trend, deposit beta, and uninsured deposit % — the real risk metrics for a bank, which Altman Z does not capture.
  • Credit quality: NPL ratio, allowance/loans, and CRE/office concentration in the loan book.
  • CET1 and tangible book value per share trajectory through the merger — the true per-share value test for a bank.
  • Whether the $3.45B short-term debt is FHLB advances/brokered deposits (normal funding) vs. distressed borrowing.
  • Integration synergies actually realized vs. promised from the Umpqua deal, and any further M&A intent.
Valuation / Mispricing
+15
Modestly Cheap
edge √Σ 62 · risk √Σ 47 · conf 6/10
Price $30.55 vs deserved ~$35 — roughly 13-15% discount, a modest but not compelling margin of safety. attractive below $27.00

The e2e composite fair value of $35.23 implies roughly 15% upside from $30.55, which is a genuine but unremarkable margin of safety for a regional bank carrying post-merger integration risk. Earnings quality is clean (no haircut warranted), so the deserved value doesn't need to be marked down on accruals — but the ~50% share count expansion from M&A is a real per-share value leak that argues against pushing deserved value above the composite. Net, deserved value lands in the low-to-mid $30s.

The bear case — that regional banks are structurally repriced post-SVB and trade at discounts to book for a reason — is largely in the price; this isn't priced for perfection. The bull case requires merger synergies to actually materialize and no further equity issuance. At ~$30.55, you're paid a modest discount to wait, but not enough to call this a screaming bargain. It's a 'modestly cheap, fairly understood' situation — closer to fair than to deep value.

Cheap signals 3
m45
Composite FV ~15% above price
Signal-adjusted FV of $35.23 vs $30.55 implies ~15% upside — a real gap, sanity-checked against a sector that commonly trades at discounts to book.
m35
Bear case appears priced in
Post-SVB regional-bank derating and deposit-competition fears are well known; trading at a discount to book suggests skepticism is already in the multiple, not a fresh risk.
m25
Clean earnings quality, no haircut
Earnings-quality signal is good (score 1), so deserved value doesn't need to be discounted for accrual aggression — the FV anchor holds up.
Rich / priced-in 2
m40
Per-share dilution caps deserved value
~50% share-count step-up over two years from M&A means absolute franchise value doesn't translate cleanly into per-share value — argues against marking deserved price above the composite.
m25
Margin of safety is thin for a regional bank
15% upside is not enough cushion given credit cycle uncertainty, deposit beta risk, and integration execution risk — banks typically need 25-30% discounts to be compelling.
Modestly cheap, not a fat pitch. At $30.55 against a ~$35 deserved value I'm getting paid ~15% to wait, but for a regional bank that just diluted shareholders 50% and faces real cycle risk, I want a wider margin. I'd start getting genuinely interested below $27 (closer to 25% discount). At current levels it's a hold-or-nibble, not a back-up-the-truck.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Confirmation that management is done issuing equity for M&A — any further share issuance lowers deserved per-share value
  • Realized merger cost synergies vs guidance in next 2-3 quarterly transcripts
  • Net interest margin trajectory and deposit cost trends
  • Credit quality / NPL trends in CRE book given regional bank cycle risk
  • Tangible book value per share growth post-merger — the real per-share value test
General Sentiment
+0
Balanced
tail √Σ 0 · head √Σ 0 · conf 6/10

COLB sits in the dead zone of sentiment: there is no live story pulling it up and no acute panic dragging it down. The tape is neutral (regime score +11, VIX 17), and with a 0.68 beta this name is structurally insulated from broad risk-off swings. The active narrative is a 'steady compounder' at minimal intensity with low cult coefficient - meaning almost no marginal buyer is showing up for the story, but almost no marginal seller is dumping it on a story break either. Where the pressure does exist, it is the lingering post-SVB regional-bank discount: the market has repriced the cohort and is not in a hurry to re-rate it, which caps multiple expansion absent a catalyst. Analyst tone is mildly constructive (10 Buys vs 9 Holds, target $33.63, ~8% above spot) but stale - zero revisions this month signals indifference rather than conviction, and that flat tone is itself a soft headwind because it gives no fuel for re-rating. Macro cross-currents are mixed for a regional bank: a 4.46% 10y with a barely-positive curve (0.27) is unhelpful for NIM narrative, but the absence of fresh regional-bank stress headlines means the bear story is dormant. Net: forces roughly cancel, with a slight lean to headwind from sector stigma and analyst apathy.

Tailwinds 0

None surfaced.

Headwinds 0

None surfaced.

The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
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Three lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), and General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Deep Analysis
Last run: Jun 19, 2026 3:05:38 am

Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.

0 Company Classification — What type of company is this?
1 Industry Landscape — Where is the industry headed?
2 Company Momentum — Where is this company trending?
3 Forward Projection — 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a DCF Valuation — Present value of future cash flows
4b Earnings Power Value — Floor value — worth with zero growth
4c Anchored PE — Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
4d Reverse DCF — What growth is the market pricing in?
4e Revenue-Based DCF — For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4f Anchored P/S — Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4g Scenario Analysis — Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4h Dividend Discount Model — For dividend/income stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4i Book Value Analysis — For deep value / turnaround stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4j Insider Activity — Are insiders buying or selling?
4f Cash Flow Quality — How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g Debt Maturity Risk — Can it handle its debt?
4h Macro Environment — Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i Sector Intelligence — How does this company compare within its sector?
4j Revenue Confidence — How reliable is the growth projection?
4k Sensitivity Analysis — How fragile is the fair value estimate?
4l Sector Demand Cycle — Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5 AI Investigation — Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b Thesis Evaluation — What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
6 Valuation Synthesis — Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 19, 2026 3:06am (8d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $1.3B $1.3B $2.7B $3.0B $3.2B
Cost of Revenue $-255,000 $162.0M $959.4M $1.1B $1.0B
Gross Profit $1.3B $1.2B $1.8B $1.8B $2.2B
Operating Expenses $760.5M $735.0M $1.3B $1.1B $1.4B
Operating Income $558.2M $450.6M $471.2M $718.8M $751.3M
Net Income $420.3M $336.8M $348.7M $533.7M $550.0M
EBITDA $589.7M $478.9M $615.5M $868.6M $895.3M
EPS $1.92 $1.55 $1.79 $2.56 $2.31
EPS (Diluted)
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 19, 2026 3:02am (8d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $2.8B $1.3B $2.2B $1.9B $511.0M
Total Current Assets $8.3B $6.2B $12.7B $3.7B $743.0M
Total Assets $30.6B $31.8B $52.2B $51.6B $67.2B
Current Liabilities $27.1B $27.4B $41.9B $42.0B $3.5B
Long-Term Debt $387.5M $1.3B $4.4B $3.5B $435.0M
Total Liabilities $27.9B $29.4B $47.2B $46.5B $59.4B
Total Equity $2.7B $2.5B $5.0B $5.1B $7.8B
Retained Earnings -$697.3M -$543.8M -$467.6M -$237.3M -$26.0M
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 19, 2026 3:06am (8d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $662.7M $1.1B $669.8M $658.9M $746.0M
Capital Expenditure -$15.5M -$27.1M $0 -$35.7M -$40.0M
Free Cash Flow $647.2M $1.0B $669.8M $623.2M $706.0M
Acquisitions (net) $10.8M $0 $274.6M $0 $874.0M
Debt Repayment
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks -$80.7M -$4.2M -$6.3M -$5.7M -$109.0M
Net Change in Cash $188.4M -$1.5B $867.9M -$284.3M $502.0M
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 19, 2026 3:00am (8d ago)
Metric 2025 2026 2027 2028
Revenue $2.3B
$2.3B – $2.3B
$2.8B
$2.8B – $2.8B
$2.9B
$2.8B – $2.9B
$2.9B
$2.9B – $2.9B
EBITDA $727.2M
$721.8M – $733.0M
$887.5M
$884.3M – $894.6M
$914.3M
$904.7M – $927.1M
$925.6M
$924.5M – $926.7M
Net Income $872.1M
$862.0M – $882.2M
$907.7M
$898.8M – $916.5M
$993.7M
$958.2M – $1.0B
$1.1B
$1.1B – $1.1B
EPS
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 19, 2026 3:06am (8d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +2.2% +103.6% +8.1% +8.3%
Gross Profit Growth -10.1% +50.5% +2.2% +19.2%
Operating Income Growth -19.3% +4.6% +52.5% +4.5%
Net Income Growth -19.9% +3.6% +53.0% +3.1%
EBITDA Growth -18.8% +28.5% +41.1% +3.1%
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 19, 2026 3:05am (8d ago)
Type codes PPurchase SSale AAward / grant MOption exercise FIn-kind (tax) CConversion GGift DReturn to issuer
All SEC Form 4 codes
Open market
P Purchase
Open-market or private purchase of shares.
S Sale
Open-market or private sale of shares.
Compensation (Rule 16b-3)
A Award / grant
Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
D Return to issuer
Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
F In-kind (tax)
Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
I Discretionary
Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
M Option exercise
Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
Derivatives
C Conversion
Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
E Short expiration
Expiration of a short derivative position.
H Long expiration
Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
O OTM exercise
Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
X ITM exercise
Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
Other exempt
G Gift
Bona fide gift of securities.
L Small acquisition
Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
W Inheritance
Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
Z Voting trust
Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
Other
J Other
Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
K Equity swap
Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
U Tender / buyout
Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.

Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.

Date Insider Type Shares Price Value
2026-06-15 MACHUCA LUIS A-Award 563.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-08 Moore Devine David S-Sale 60.00 $29.77 $1,786
2026-06-08 Moore Devine David S-Sale 3,812.00 $29.78 $113,502
2026-05-14 Varnado Anddria A-Award 3,949.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-14 Terry Hilliard C. III A-Award 3,949.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-14 STUDENMUND JAYNIE M A-Award 3,949.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-14 SEATON ELIZABETH WHITEHEAD A-Award 3,949.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-14 SCHULTZ JOHN F A-Award 3,949.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-14 MITCHELL M CHRISTIAN A-Award 3,949.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-14 MACHUCA LUIS A-Award 3,949.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-14 Lund Randal Lee A-Award 3,949.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-14 Forrest Eric A-Award 3,949.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-14 Finkelstein Mark A A-Award 3,949.00 $0.00 $0
2026-04-15 Lakely Brock F-InKind 396.00 $29.10 $11,524
2026-03-13 BARUFFI KUMI YAMAMOTO F-InKind 937.00 $26.23 $24,578
2026-03-13 Lakely Brock F-InKind 211.00 $26.23 $5,535
2026-03-16 MACHUCA LUIS A-Award 659.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-13 Stein Clint M-Exempt 18,171.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-13 Stein Clint M-Exempt 18,171.00 $26.23 $476,625
2026-03-13 Stein Clint F-InKind 7,151.00 $26.23 $187,571
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jun 19, 2026 3:00am (8d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-05-29 $0.37 2026-05-15 2026-05-29 2026-06-15
2026-02-27 $0.37 2026-02-13 2026-02-27 2026-03-16
2025-11-28 $0.37 2025-11-14 2025-11-28 2025-12-15
2025-08-29 $0.36 2025-08-15 2025-08-29 2025-09-15
2025-05-30 $0.36 2025-05-16 2025-05-30 2025-06-16
2025-02-28 $0.36 2025-02-14 2025-02-28 2025-03-17
2024-11-29 $0.36 2024-11-15 2024-11-29 2024-12-16
2024-08-23 $0.36 2024-08-12 2024-08-23 2024-09-09
2024-05-23 $0.36 2024-05-13 2024-05-24 2024-06-10
2024-02-22 $0.36 2024-02-09 2024-02-23 2024-03-11
2023-11-22 $0.36 2023-11-13 2023-11-24 2023-12-11
2023-08-24 $0.36 2023-08-14 2023-08-25 2023-09-11
2023-05-30 $0.36 2023-05-15 2023-05-31 2023-06-15
2023-02-03 $0.30 2023-01-24 2023-02-06 2023-02-21
2022-10-14 $0.30 2022-10-05 2022-10-17 2022-10-28
2022-08-02 $0.30 2022-07-21 2022-08-03 2022-08-17
2022-05-03 $0.30 2022-04-21 2022-05-04 2022-05-18
2022-02-01 $0.30 2022-01-19 2022-02-02 2022-02-16
2021-10-12 $0.30 2021-09-30 2021-10-13 2021-10-27
2021-08-10 $0.28 2021-07-29 2021-08-11 2021-08-25
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for COLB — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Delvantic AI Findings
Independent analyst synthesis · Delvantic - Cairn AI · generated 2026-06-19 03:06:12
Reviews the pipeline's own verdicts
Verdict Modestly undervalued — fair value $36-40 on normalized 11x earnings and 1.25x book; collect the 4% yield while waiting for two clean quarters to confirm Umpqua integration and CRE credit don't crack.

Looking at the raw quarterlies first: revenue ramps from $740M (Q2'24) to $851M (Q1'26), a clean ~15% trajectory, but net income is wildly lumpy — $86.6M, $152.4M, $96.0M, $215.0M, $192.0M. Those two sub-$100M quarters (Q1'25 and Q3'25 at 12% and 11.8% margins versus ~22% in the good quarters) scream credit provisioning or merger-related charges, not normalized earnings power. TTM net income is roughly $655M; the $550M FY25 print plus the strong Q1'26 suggests run-rate EPS closer to $3.00-3.30, putting forward P/E around 9-10x, not the 13.5x trailing. That's cheap even for a regional. The 2023 revenue doubling ($1.35B → $2.74B) is the Umpqua merger — so 2024-2025 is integration noise, and 2026 Q1 ($851M revenue, 22.6% margin) is the first clean quarter of what the combined entity actually earns.

The synthesis verdict ("Disconnected from Fundamentals," implying undervalued) and the Market Forces verdict ("Market Headwinds, avoid") are in direct contradiction, and the synthesis is closer to right but for fuzzy reasons. P/B of 1.05 on a bank that just printed a 22.6% net margin quarter and generates a 4.06% dividend yield with $706M FCF against a $7.27B market cap (FCF yield ~9.7%) is not a disaster scenario — it's a bank the market refuses to re-rate post-SVB. ROE at 9.2% is mediocre but improving as the lumpy quarters roll off; if normalized ROE settles at 11-12% (plausible given Q4'25 and Q1'26 prints), 1.0x book is too cheap. The Market Forces claim of "inadequate interest coverage" is a category error for a bank — interest expense IS the cost of goods, not a solvency metric. I'd push back hard on that signal.

The contrarian case the models underweight: this is a Pacific Northwest commercial lender with meaningful CRE exposure right as office/multifamily refinancing waves hit through 2026-2027. The lumpy quarters may not be one-time integration charges — they may be early credit migration that management is smoothing via reserve releases in alternating quarters. The $511M cash position is thin relative to a $50B+ asset base, and the balance sheet section is missing total debt and equity entirely, which is a real data gap (not just an FMP tag issue). Insider activity is essentially all equity awards with one trivial sale — neutral, not bullish; nobody's buying with cash. The "accelerating quarterly trend" signal is partially an artifact of merger comp timing, not organic loan growth, which industry data suggests is running low-single-digits for PNW regionals.

Net read: I dissent from Market Forces and partially agree with the synthesis. At $30.55, COLB trades at ~1.05x book, ~9-10x forward earnings on normalized run-rate, with a covered 4.06% dividend and $706M FCF. Fair value on a re-rating to 1.25x book and 11x normalized EPS lands in the $36-40 range, ~20-30% upside plus the dividend. But the catalyst path is slow — you're paid 4% to wait for either (a) two more clean quarters proving integration is done and credit is contained, or (b) a Fed cutting cycle that re-rates the whole regional bank complex. The risk is CRE credit deterioration showing up in H2 2026, which would justify the current discount in retrospect. The narrative engine is right that this is anchored, prosaic, and unloved — which is exactly when regionals offer asymmetric returns, provided you size for the credit tail.

GPT Critique
Second-opinion review · gpt-4o · generated 2026-06-19 03:06:21
Reviews the Opus findings above
Verdict I agree with Opus that COLB is undervalued at $30.55, but I peg fair value slightly lower, around $35-38, acknowledging the potential credit risks and thin cash position not fully accounted for in their analysis.

From my independent analysis of Columbia Banking System, Inc., the key focus is on the significant revenue growth trajectory and the marked variability in net income. The revenue increase from $740.2M in Q2 2024 to $851.0M in Q1 2026 is notable, representing a 15% growth, yet the large fluctuations in net income, especially the notably low quarters Q1 and Q3 of 2025, suggest instability likely due to credit provisioning or merger-related expenses. The revenue jump in 2023 from $1.35B to $2.74B aligns with the acquisition of Umpqua, indicating that the recent quarters are transitional, reflecting integration challenges rather than organic profitability.

I agree with Opus's assessment of the valuation, particularly the assertion that Columbia is undervalued. Opus argues that the current P/E ratio is misleading due to transitional earnings, suggesting a forward P/E of 9-10x based on anticipated EPS of $3.00-3.30. This aligns with the bank's recent strong quarter (Q1 2026) showing a 22.6% margin, which suggests normalization post-acquisition. I concur that the market's reluctance to re-rate the stock post-SVB is a factor, and the current price reflects a disconnect from the fundamentals of a bank with a 9.7% FCF yield and stable dividend.

However, I diverge from Opus on the risk assessment. While Opus downplays the Market Forces' warning of "inadequate interest coverage" as a misinterpretation, I find the concern over credit quality and potential CRE exposure more pressing. The Pacific Northwest commercial lending focus, coupled with significant CRE exposure during a refinancing wave, poses a risk that could exacerbate if credit conditions worsen. The irregular income pattern might be an early indicator of underlying credit issues rather than just integration noise. Additionally, the thin cash position relative to the asset base underscores potential liquidity concerns that are not fully addressed by Opus's analysis.

A skeptic might argue that both analyses underestimate the systemic risks facing regional banks, particularly in a volatile interest rate environment and potential credit tightening. They would point to the bank's reliance on continued favorable economic conditions and successful integration of acquisitions to maintain current valuations. The absence of detailed balance sheet metrics like total debt and equity further complicates a comprehensive risk assessment.

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My Notes personal — only you see this
Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · fmp
v1.1.352 · d1100787 · 2026-06-26 11:39:30