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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Equifax Inc. (EFX) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-25): Designation Low · Gem Score -28 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 29 · Value -74 · Sentiment -15 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $93.88 vs $175.55 at analysis
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profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
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Equifax Inc.
EFX NYSEEquifax Inc. is a global data, analytics, and technology company that provides information solutions and human resources business process outsourcing services. Equifax Inc. serves financial institutions, employers, businesses, and government agencies with credit reporting, consumer and commercial information services, mortgage-related data, identity management, and financial marketing tools. Its Workforce Solutions business supports employment, income, and social security number verification, along with payroll-based transaction and employment tax services. The company also offers international information and recovery management services across markets in North America, Latin America, Europe, and the Asia Pacific region. Headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia, Equifax Inc. plays a central role in helping organizations make credit, hiring, and risk-related decisions through data-driven insights.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 5.32
Total Equity: $4.74B
Shares: 124,100,000
Total Debt: $5.09B
Cash: $180.80M
EBITDA: $1.82B
Total Debt: $5.09B
Cash: $180.80M
Revenue: $6.07B
Revenue: $6.07B
Revenue: $6.07B
Total Equity: $4.74B
Tax Rate: 25.8%
Equity: $4.74B
Total Debt: $5.09B
Cash: $180.80M
Current Liabilities: $2.34B
Long-Term Debt: $4.06B
Total Debt: $5.09B
Total Equity: $4.74B
Shares: 124,100,000
Shares: 124,100,000
CapEx: -$481.40M
Shares: 124,100,000
Stock Price: $174.74
Net Income: $660.30M
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 12:44pm (22d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.9B | $5.1B | $5.3B | $5.7B | $6.1B |
| Cost of Revenue | $2.0B | $2.2B | $2.3B | $2.5B | $2.6B |
| Gross Profit | $2.9B | $2.9B | $2.9B | $3.2B | $3.4B |
| Operating Expenses | $1.8B | $1.9B | $2.0B | $2.1B | $2.3B |
| Operating Income | $1.1B | $1.1B | $933.6M | $1.0B | $1.1B |
| Net Income | $744.2M | $696.2M | $545.3M | $604.1M | $660.3M |
| EBITDA | $1.6B | $1.6B | $1.6B | $1.7B | $1.8B |
| EPS | $6.11 | $5.69 | $4.44 | $4.88 | $5.36 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $6.02 | $5.65 | $4.40 | $4.84 | $5.32 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 12:09pm (22d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $224.7M | $285.2M | $216.8M | $169.9M | $180.8M |
| Total Current Assets | $1.1B | $1.4B | $1.4B | $1.4B | $1.4B |
| Total Assets | $11.0B | $11.5B | $12.3B | $11.8B | $11.9B |
| Current Liabilities | $2.3B | $2.0B | $2.0B | $1.8B | $2.3B |
| Long-Term Debt | $4.5B | $4.8B | $4.7B | $4.3B | $4.1B |
| Total Liabilities | $7.4B | $7.6B | $7.6B | $6.8B | $7.1B |
| Total Equity | $3.6B | $4.0B | $4.7B | $4.9B | $4.7B |
| Retained Earnings | $4.8B | $5.3B | $5.6B | $6.0B | $6.4B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 12:44pm (22d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $1.3B | $757.1M | $1.1B | $1.3B | $1.6B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$469.0M | -$624.5M | -$601.3M | -$511.5M | -$481.4M |
| Free Cash Flow | $865.8M | $132.6M | $515.5M | $813.0M | $1.1B |
| Acquisitions (net) | -$2.9B | -$433.8M | -$283.8M | $0 | -$74.1M |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | $596.9M | $249.3M | $293.6M | -$795.8M | -$398.5M |
| Dividends Paid | -$190.0M | -$191.1M | -$191.8M | -$193.2M | -$232.8M |
| Stock Buybacks | -$69.9M | $0 | $0 | $0 | -$927.5M |
| Net Change in Cash | -$1.5B | $60.5M | -$68.4M | -$46.9M | $10.9M |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 12:44pm (22d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +4.0% | +2.8% | +7.9% | +6.9% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +0.1% | -0.5% | +7.9% | +8.4% |
| Operating Income Growth | -7.2% | -11.6% | +11.6% | +5.1% |
| Net Income Growth | -6.4% | -21.7% | +10.8% | +9.3% |
| EBITDA Growth | -0.2% | -4.4% | +10.9% | +5.8% |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 12:09pm (22d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | $0.56 | — | — | — |
| 2026-03-09 | $0.56 | — | — | — |
| 2025-11-24 | $0.50 | — | — | — |
| 2025-09-02 | $0.50 | — | — | — |
| 2025-05-23 | $0.50 | — | — | — |
| 2025-02-21 | $0.39 | — | — | — |
| 2024-11-22 | $0.39 | — | — | — |
| 2024-09-03 | $0.39 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-23 | $0.39 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-22 | $0.39 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-22 | $0.39 | — | — | — |
| 2023-09-05 | $0.39 | — | — | — |
| 2023-05-24 | $0.39 | — | — | — |
| 2023-02-21 | $0.39 | — | — | — |
| 2022-11-22 | $0.39 | — | — | — |
| 2022-09-02 | $0.39 | — | — | — |
| 2022-05-24 | $0.39 | — | — | — |
| 2022-02-18 | $0.39 | — | — | — |
| 2021-11-23 | $0.39 | — | — | — |
| 2021-09-03 | $0.39 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
Looking at the raw quarterly cadence first: revenue went $1.42B → $1.44B → $1.44B → $1.54B → $1.54B → $1.55B → $1.65B → $1.70B over the last eight quarters, so the June 2026 print is 18% above the September 2024 base and sequential growth actually accelerated in the last two quarters (+6.5% then +3.0% QoQ). That's not the flatlining picture the bear narrative implies. Net income is choppier — the 10.8% Q2'26 margin is roughly flat with year-ago 12.4%, so margin has drifted DOWN even as revenue accelerated, which is the real tell. Annual op margin has compressed from 23.2% in 2021 to 18.1% in 2025, exactly as the pre-flight flagged. FCF CAGR of 48% is a base-effect artifact off a depressed EFX2023 cloud-spend trough; capex is still $481M against $1.62B OCF, and once EFX2023 amortization kicks in fully, the "48%" evaporates.
The synthesis verdict of $80 fair value against $174 (-54%) is directionally right but numerically aggressive. EV/EBITDA of 13.8x is not egregious for a duopoly data business — Moody's and S&P trade 18-22x, TransUnion around 12x. A 32.8x P/E on $660M of GAAP NI is the stretched number, but on ~$1.13B FCF the P/FCF is ~18x, which is defensible if you believe the mortgage cycle normalizes and Workforce Solutions keeps compounding. The thesis-evaluation claim that the market embeds "32% FCF growth for five years" is arithmetic sleight-of-hand — it depends entirely on the discount rate and terminal assumption. At an 8% WACC and 3% terminal, $1.13B FCF growing at 10% for five years then fading gets you to roughly $110-120/share, not $80. The $80 number requires assuming margin compression continues and Workforce Solutions decelerates — plausible, but not the only reasonable path.
The models are also internally inconsistent. Market Forces calls EFX "strategically impaired" and "over-leveraged" — but debt/equity of 1.07x and $1.62B OCF against $5.09B debt (3.1x OCF) is manageable, not distressed. The narrative layer more honestly frames this as an $80 DCF core plus a $95 narrative premium, which is the correct decomposition. Where I dissent from synthesis: calling this "overvalued by 54%" for a business with 56% gross margins, 6-7% organic growth accelerating to double digits, and a regulated duopoly moat requires believing regulatory risk is imminent — and the FCRA hasn't been meaningfully reworked in 20 years despite constant threats. The contrarian argument the models under-weight: mortgage originations are near multi-decade lows; a normalization to even 2019 levels would drop $200-300M of high-incremental-margin revenue straight to EBITDA, and EFX is the highest-beta name to that recovery. That's a call option the -54% overvaluation call ignores.
Insider data isn't shown but is a gap. So is customer concentration disclosure — banking/HR concentration is the real bear risk, not "decentralized identity" (which is science fiction on a five-year view). My read: fair value is closer to $130-140, not $80 and not $175. That makes EFX modestly overvalued, not egregiously so, and the risk/reward is asymmetric to the upside if mortgage volumes normalize in 2026-27. I'd wait for a pullback to $150 or a Q3 print that confirms margin stabilization before committing capital, but I disagree with the synthesis that this is a $80 stock. The models are anchored on trailing GAAP earnings and ignoring that the revenue trajectory is accelerating, not decelerating.
GPT Reading
The numbers say Equifax is better than the harshest model output suggests, but not cheap. This is a business that has quietly re-accelerated: quarterly revenue moved from $1.44B in 2025-03 to $1.70B in 2026-06, with the latest quarter up about 10.4% year over year from $1.54B. Net income in that same latest quarter rose from $191.3M to $183.9M on a tougher compare? No — the cleaner read is from the two-quarter run rate: 1H26 revenue of $3.35B versus $2.98B in 1H25, up 12.4%, while net income rose to $355.4M from $324.4M, up 9.6%. That is not a broken credit bureau. Annual revenue has compounded from $4.92B in 2021 to $6.07B in 2025, and operating income has recovered from $933.6M in 2023 to $1.10B in 2025. The core issue is that profits have not kept pace with sales: net income is still below 2021 and 2022 levels, and net margin at 10.9% in 2025 remains well under the 15.1% posted in 2021. So the story is not secular decline; it is a solid top-line compounder still working through margin rehabilitation.
Cash flow is the main reason I won’t follow the most bearish valuation call. On 2025 figures, Equifax generated $1.62B of operating cash flow and $1.13B of free cash flow, which puts the stock at roughly 18x trailing FCF on the current $20.3B market cap. For a high-gross-margin data asset business with 56.5% gross margin, mid-single to low-double-digit revenue growth, and entrenched market position, that is not absurd. In fact, it is materially less demanding than the 32.8x P/E headline suggests, because accounting earnings are being suppressed by a capex-heavy phase: capex ran $481.4M in 2025, nearly 8% of revenue. The valuation stack therefore looks mixed, not uniformly extreme. 3.6x sales and 13.8x EV/EBITDA are premium-ish but hardly bubble levels for a data/analytics franchise. My read is that the stock is priced for continued execution and some margin recovery, not for heroic transformation.
What keeps me from calling it cheap is leverage plus mediocre incremental profitability. Debt of $5.09B against just $180.8M of cash leaves little balance-sheet flexibility, and the current ratio of 0.60 is weak for a company that may still need sustained investment. More importantly, the growth algorithm is less impressive below revenue line. From 2021 to 2025, revenue rose 23% while operating income fell from $1.14B to $1.10B and net income fell from $744.2M to $660.3M. Even the recent rebound only gets annual net margin back to 10.9%, still below 2024’s quarterly highs in some periods and well below historical peak economics. ROIC of 8.4% is fine, not elite. At $174.74, the market is giving Equifax credit for the moat and for stabilization, but not really offering a bargain if the end-state earnings power is merely low-teens margins.
The strongest case against my more balanced read is that the stock may still be meaningfully overearning on multiple despite the decent cash flow. A smart bear would point out that 18x FCF is not cheap when FCF itself may be flattered by working capital timing and before any need for capex normalization upward; that P/E above 30x on a 7.4% revenue CAGR and 10% earnings CAGR is too rich for a mature bureau; and that gross margin has declined from roughly 59.8% in 2021 to 56.5% in 2025, suggesting the business mix is getting structurally less attractive. They would also note that 2022 net income of $696.2M and 2021 net income of $744.2M remain above 2025’s $660.3M despite several years of revenue growth, which is exactly the pattern of a company spending heavily just to stand still. I weigh that bear case seriously. Where I differ is that the quarterly revenue trajectory in 2026 is too strong to dismiss, and the cash generation is too real to justify an $80 fair value unless one assumes either a major cyclical setback or permanent margin impairment.
What would change my mind is straightforward. If the next two quarters fail to hold revenue above roughly $1.65B-$1.70B and net margin does not improve from the current 10%-11% band toward 12%+, then the “recovery plus scale benefits” case is weaker than it looks and the stock should de-rate, probably into the $140s or lower. Conversely, if 2026 revenue lands near a $6.6B-$6.8B run rate and operating margin expands back above 19%, with free cash flow sustaining comfortably above $1.2B while debt trends down, then today’s price would look reasonable and perhaps modestly cheap. For now, I see a good business, not a bargain: the pessimistic models overshoot, but so would an outright bull call at this valuation.
Grok Reading
Equifax is a steady mid-single-digit grower being asked to carry a high-teens-to-low-thirties growth multiple. Revenue has compounded at 7.4% from $4.92B in 2021 to $6.07B in 2025, with the latest four quarters running $1.54B–$1.70B and recent YoY still around 7%. That is real, high-confidence top-line progress from a duopoly data franchise. But the earnings power underneath has not kept pace with the price: net income of $660M in 2025 remains below the $744M printed in 2021 even as revenue is $1.15B higher, and quarterly net margins have settled in a 10–11% band after touching 12%+ in stronger periods. Operating margin at 18% and ROIC at 8.4% are respectable for an industrial data business, not exceptional enough to justify a 32.8x P/E, 4.15x EV/revenue, or a market cap of $20.3B that embeds a transformation premium the income statement has not yet delivered. Free cash flow of $1.13B on $1.62B operating cash flow is the cleanest number in the file—FCF yield near 5.6% after $481M of capex—but it is being generated against $5.09B of debt, only $181M of cash, a current ratio of 0.60, and a debt-to-equity ratio above 1.0. The balance sheet is not crisis-level, but it is constrained, and it leaves little room for a mis-step if mortgage-related volumes stay soft or if the technology spend keeps running hot.
The quantitative models calling fair value near $80–90 are too punitive for a business that still throws off over a billion dollars of FCF with recurring characteristics and pricing power in credit and workforce data; a 12–13x FCF or mid-teens earnings multiple would land closer to $115–140 depending on the cycle. Even so, at $174.74 the stock is asking investors to underwrite roughly 30%+ annual FCF growth for years—the market’s implied math—when revenue is growing 7% and net income is only now reclaiming 2022–2024 levels. Gross margin has compressed roughly 400bp from the 2021 peak, capex remains elevated for the cloud migration, and the mortgage-sensitive portions of the franchise face structural, not purely cyclical, headwinds. Workforce Solutions is the genuine positive offset and the reason the bull case has any oxygen, but it is not yet large or fast enough on the reported numbers to re-rate the whole enterprise from mature earner to secular compounder. The fallen-angel narrative—breach behind us, identity infrastructure ahead—explains why the multiple has held up, yet the fundamentals still read like a leveraged, mid-single-digit grower with a decent moat, not a 33x earnings story.
The strongest pushback is straightforward: FCF has been the standout (the reported FCF CAGR is eye-catching even if partly base-effect), the EFX2023 cloud program is supposed to unlock operating leverage that has not fully shown up in margins yet, and Workforce Solutions sits on a structural verification and compliance tailwind that could outrun core credit-bureau cyclicality. A skeptic of the overvalued call would also note that EV/EBITDA of 13.8x is not absurd for a high-gross-margin data oligopoly, that revenue confidence is high and sequential quarters are still climbing, and that a 5.6% FCF yield with a 1.2% dividend and 35% payout is serviceable if you believe the margin trough is in. Those points have merit; I simply weigh them as already in the price. The stock is not cheap on any cash-flow or earnings screen unless you assume the transformation delivers 200–300bp of margin recovery and sustained double-digit FCF growth—neither of which is visible in the 2024–2025 run-rate.
I would reverse course if the next two to three quarters show operating margin reclaiming the low-20s with FCF converting above recent levels, if Workforce Solutions growth re-accelerates enough to push consolidated revenue into the low double digits, or if net debt is meaningfully reduced while the multiple holds. Sustained mortgage-volume recovery that lifts the core bureau without another capex spike would also matter. Absent that evidence, $175 is a full price for a 7% grower with compressed returns and a leveraged balance sheet.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Equifax runs a durable, recurring-revenue data/analytics franchise: revenue compounded from $4.92B (2021) to $6.07B (2025), roughly 5.4% CAGR through a tough mortgage-volume cycle, with gross margins holding in the mid-50s and operating margin stabilizing around 18% after compressing from 23.1% in 2021. FCF has recovered strongly to $1.13B in 2025 (18.6% FCF margin) from a $132.6M trough in 2022 (heavy tech-transformation capex), and OCF/NI of 1.91x plus accruals of -4.9% of assets point to genuinely clean earnings. Beneish M of -2.84 shows no manipulation flags.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Debt maturity schedule and refinancing plan for the $1.04B short-term debt
- Whether mortgage-market recovery is driving the 2025 revenue reacceleration or if Workforce Solutions growth is durable
- Cloud transformation capex trajectory — is the FCF recovery sustainable or one-off working capital?
- Customer concentration and government contract dependency in Workforce Solutions
- Any residual liability or reputational drag from 2017 breach still in contingencies
The price sits at roughly 2x the composite fair value ($90.76) and 2.2x the signal-adjusted FV ($80.07), with EPV floor at just $53.33 and even the most generous anchored-PE method landing at $131.37 — still ~25% below spot. No credible method in the stack supports today's quote. Even granting that EPV understates a growing bureau and DCF ($89) may be too punitive on cloud-transition margins, the anchored-PE of $131 is the honest ceiling on 'deserved' value for a Solid-quality, $4.9B-net-debt business whose margins haven't recovered to 2021 levels. Against $175.55, that's still a ~25-35% overpay. What's priced in: full margin recovery, sustained double-digit growth from Workforce Solutions, no privacy/regulatory drag, and multiple expansion on top. That is a stack-the-deck scenario, not a base case. Earnings quality is clean (no haircut needed), and the business is genuinely good — but paying 2x deserved value for a Solid (not fortress) oligopolist with leverage is not a margin-of-safety setup; it's paying up for a narrative that has already run.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Workforce Solutions organic growth durability in next 2 quarters
- Adjusted EBITDA margin trajectory vs 2021 peak of ~35%
- Free cash flow conversion post cloud-transformation capex roll-off
- Net debt reduction pace and refinancing terms
- Any guidance revision on government/mortgage end-market recovery
The market regime is mildly constructive (score +22, VIX 16, S&P just 1.6% off highs), but with a 1.32 beta EFX amplifies whatever the tape does - and right now the tape is doing very little. The bigger force is narrative: EFX sits in a moderate-intensity, moderate-durability fallen-angel arc where the story has already carried the price from post-breach purgatory to a level that requires believing in AI-verification and government-ID tailwinds. That narrative is not fading, but it is not accelerating either - cult coefficient is low, meaning few holders will defend it religiously if the story cracks.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Any FTC/CFPB action or state privacy legislation that reignites regulatory-risk narrative
- Bank/HR customer concentration commentary on next print - a weak Workforce Solutions quarter could crack the growth story
- Whether 10y yield breaks above 4.75% - would compress high-multiple services names
- Analyst target revisions - divergence between price and consensus would signal narrative fatigue
This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.
When we made this prediction on Aug 5, 2026, EFX was $177.12. We expect it to be $162.00 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $115.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 5, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.