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STALE Analysis Report
Jul 27, 2026
31 days ago · 100% complete
Re-run recommended — fundamentals and price action have likely diverged from this snapshot.
NOT DEPENDABLE This report predates a filing — its financial basis has been replaced.
Report generated: Jul 27, 2026 · Filing on record since: Aug 27, 2026 · 31 days after
For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page

What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Consolidated Edison, Inc. (ED) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.

Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-27): Designation Low · Gem Score -22 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 34 · Value -60 · Sentiment -11 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $65.65 vs $113.01 at analysis

Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable reference-name attribute you can cite):

  • profile-header / price-overview — company profile, live quote, market cap
  • extended-analysisthe core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memo
  • future-predictions — our forward price-band predictions
  • market-narrative / ai-findings / gpt-critique — narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)
  • Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers): price-history, income-trend, key-metrics, financials (statement tables), insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.

More for machine readers: site briefing at /llms.txt · any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER · raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds); every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.

Consolidated Edison, Inc.

ED NYSE
Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Electric
New York, NY 10003, United States conedison.com Updated Jul 26, 10:47am
Price
$113.01
Market Cap
$41.6B
Employees
15,407
Beta
0.26
Avg Volume
2,250,778
Last Dividend
$3.48
CEO
Mr. Timothy P. Cawley

Consolidated Edison, Inc. is a U.S.-based holding company focused on regulated energy delivery services. Through its primary subsidiaries, Consolidated Edison Company of New York and Orange & Rockland Utilities, the company provides electric, natural gas, and steam distribution to customers in southeastern New York, including New York City, and parts of New Jersey. Its operations are organized around utility networks that manage transmission and distribution infrastructure, connecting power generation and gas supply to residential, commercial, and institutional users. Consolidated Edison, Inc. plays a central role in supporting dense urban and suburban regions with reliable energy delivery, operating under state-regulated frameworks that emphasize service reliability, safety, and environmental compliance. Headquartered in New York, New York, it is part of the U.S. utilities sector and is considered a major regulated electric and gas utility serving one of the country’s largest metropolitan areas.

Runs with full report Generated: Jul 27, 2026 12:30am
Price Overview
Price at report time
$113.01
as of Jul 27, 12:34am (31d ago)
Change · Jul 27
+0.22 (+0.20%)
Day Range
$112.57 – $114.47
52-Week Range
$94.96 – $116.23
50-Day MA
$108.80
200-Day MA
$106.02
Volume
2,971,900.00
Right now · live
Log in to get the live feed
Members see the real-time price and the move since this report (over 31d).
Share Structure
Outstanding 368,421,246.00
Float 367,936,372.00
Free Float 99.9%
High free float — 99.9% of shares trade freely, ~0.1% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jul 27, 2026 12:42am (31d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jul 27, 2026 12:42am (31d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
TD Twelve Data statement HEX SEC filing
Industry comparison last run: Jul 27, 2026 12:29am
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
HEX
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
20.04
Stock Price: $113.01
EPS (Diluted): 5.64
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
HEX
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
1.68
Stock Price: $113.01
Total Equity: $24.19B
Shares: 358,687,943
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
HEX
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
11.03
Market Cap: $41.65B
Total Debt: $28.38B
Cash: $1.63B
EBITDA: $6.08B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
HEX
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$67.1B
Market Cap: $41.65B
Total Debt: $28.38B
Cash: $1.63B
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
HEX
Gross Profit / Revenue
53.3%
Gross Profit: $9.01B
Revenue: $16.92B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
HEX
Operating Income / Revenue
17.7%
Operating Income: $3.00B
Revenue: $16.92B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
HEX
Net Income / Revenue
12.0%
Net Income: $2.02B
Revenue: $16.92B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
HEX
Net Income / Total Equity
8.4%
Net Income: $2.02B
Total Equity: $24.19B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
HEX
NOPAT / Invested Capital
4.6%
Operating Income: $3.00B
Tax Rate: 22.1%
Equity: $24.19B
Total Debt: $28.38B
Cash: $1.63B
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
HEX
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
1.02
Current Assets: $6.75B
Current Liabilities: $6.61B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
HEX
Total Debt / Total Equity
1.17
Short-Term Debt: $2.45B
Long-Term Debt: $25.93B
Total Debt: $28.38B
Total Equity: $24.19B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
HEX
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$47.17
Revenue: $16.92B
Shares: 358,687,943
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
HEX
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$67.44
Total Equity: $24.19B
Shares: 358,687,943
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
HEX
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$13.38
Operating CF: $4.80B
CapEx: $0.00
Shares: 358,687,943
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
TD
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
3.1%
Last Dividend: $3.48
Stock Price: $113.01
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
HEX
Dividends Paid / Net Income
57.6%
Dividends Paid: -$1.17B
Net Income: $2.02B
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Jul 27, 2026 12:17am
Compares ED against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 27, 2026 12:42am (31d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $13.7B $15.7B $14.7B $15.3B $16.9B
Cost of Revenue $6.0B $8.0B $7.3B $7.1B $7.9B
Gross Profit $7.7B $7.7B $7.4B $8.2B $9.0B
Operating Expenses $4.8B $5.1B $5.1B $5.4B $6.0B
Operating Income $2.8B $2.6B $2.3B $2.7B $3.0B
Net Income $1.3B $1.7B $2.5B $1.8B $2.0B
EBITDA $4.7B $5.1B $5.1B $5.4B $6.1B
EPS $3.86 $4.68 $7.25 $5.26 $5.66
EPS (Diluted) $3.85 $4.66 $7.21 $5.24 $5.64
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 27, 2026 12:07am (31d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $992.0M $1.3B $1.2B $1.3B $1.6B
Total Current Assets $5.6B $13.0B $6.5B $6.7B $6.8B
Total Assets $63.1B $69.1B $66.3B $70.6B $74.6B
Current Liabilities $5.4B $11.3B $6.5B $6.4B $6.6B
Long-Term Debt $23.3B $20.6B $22.4B $25.0B $25.9B
Total Liabilities $42.8B $48.2B $45.2B $48.6B $50.4B
Total Equity $20.0B $20.7B $21.2B $22.0B $24.2B
Retained Earnings $11.4B $12.0B $13.4B $14.0B $14.9B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 27, 2026 12:42am (31d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $2.7B $3.9B $2.2B $3.6B $4.8B
Capital Expenditure -$4.0B -$4.5B
Free Cash Flow -$1.2B -$530.0M
Acquisitions (net)
Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) $462.0M $2.1B $588.0M $2.4B $1.5B
Dividends Paid -$1.0B -$1.1B -$1.1B -$1.1B -$1.2B
Stock Buybacks $0 $0 -$1.0B $0 $0
Net Change in Cash -$290.0M $384.0M -$335.0M $138.0M $297.0M
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jul 27, 2026 12:42am (31d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +14.6% -6.4% +4.0% +10.9%
Gross Profit Growth +0.2% -3.6% +10.3% +10.3%
Operating Income Growth -7.1% -11.2% +17.2% +9.8%
Net Income Growth +23.3% +51.7% -27.7% +11.2%
EBITDA Growth +7.0% +0.8% +6.6% +11.8%
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jul 25, 2026 3:28am (33d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-05-13 $0.89
2026-02-18 $0.89
2025-11-19 $0.85
2025-08-13 $0.85
2025-05-14 $0.85
2025-02-19 $0.85
2024-11-13 $0.83
2024-08-14 $0.83
2024-05-14 $0.83
2024-02-13 $0.83
2023-11-14 $0.81
2023-08-15 $0.81
2023-05-16 $0.81
2023-02-14 $0.81
2022-11-15 $0.79
2022-08-16 $0.79
2022-05-17 $0.79
2022-02-15 $0.79
2021-11-16 $0.78
2021-08-17 $0.78
0Company Classification 1Industry Landscape 2Company Momentum 3Forward Projection 4aDCF Valuation 4bEarnings Power Value 4cAnchored PE 4dReverse DCF 4eRevenue-Based DCF 4fAnchored P/S 4gScenario Analysis 4hDividend Discount Model 4iBook Value Analysis 4jInsider Activity 4fCash Flow Quality 4gDebt Maturity Risk 4hMacro Environment 4iSector Intelligence 4jRevenue Confidence 4kSensitivity Analysis 4lSector Demand Cycle 5AI Investigation 5bThesis Evaluation 6Valuation Synthesis
computed not applicable errored not yet run 14 computed · 6 not applicable · 2 errored · 2 not yet run
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for ED — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
Independent analyst synthesis · claude-opus-4-7 · generated 2026-07-27 00:42:28
Verdict Modestly overvalued at $113 — fair value $95-100; hold if you own it for the dividend, but new capital gets better risk-adjusted yield in investment-grade utility debt until a 10%+ pullback or a Fed cutting cycle re-rates the sector.

Looking at ED's raw numbers first: TTM revenue is running ~$16.9B with net margin around 12%, generating roughly $2B in earnings on a $41.7B market cap — that's a 20x P/E for a business growing revenue at a 7.4% CAGR but with earnings that have been lumpy ($1.35B → $1.66B → $2.52B → $1.82B → $2.02B, i.e., no clean compounding). The $28.4B debt against $24.2B equity and only $1.63B cash is standard utility leverage, but the 1.02 current ratio and 4.6% ROIC vs. what is almost certainly a 5%+ blended cost of debt in the current rate environment is the actual problem — ED is earning barely above its cost of capital, which is the classic regulated-utility trap when rates stay elevated. EV/EBITDA of 11x and P/B of 1.68 aren't screaming cheap for a business with 8.4% ROE.

Where I diverge from the prior models: the Valuation Synthesis flags "high debt risk — interest coverage dangerously low" and Market Forces calls it "avoid" — I think that's overstated theatrics for a regulated monopoly with rate-base recovery mechanisms. ConEd doesn't refinance-fail; NY PSC allows debt costs into rates with a lag. The real risk isn't solvency, it's ROE compression and regulatory lag eroding the equity return, which is a slower bleed, not a cliff. Conversely, the Narrative layer's claim that "fundamentals anchor 87-88% of price" with only 12% narrative premium feels too tidy — a DCF on a utility with 4.6% ROIC and 7% top-line growth funded largely by debt and equity issuance doesn't obviously support $99, either. I'd argue the composite $98.93 fair value is roughly right but for different reasons than the models state: it's not debt-crisis risk, it's that you're paying 20x earnings for a ~3% dividend + 3-4% rate-base growth = ~6-7% total return, which is inferior to holding investment-grade utility debt yielding 5.5%+ with less equity risk.

The contrarian case worth engaging: NYC/Westchester electrification is a genuine multi-decade capex tailwind. If ED's rate base compounds at 7-8% (management guides similar) and regulators grant constructive ROEs on climate-mandated investment, the equity is a long-duration inflation-linked bond with growth. The recent Q1 2025 print of $4.80B revenue and $791M NI (16.5% margin) vs. Q1 2024's $4.28B/$720M shows ~12% revenue and ~10% earnings growth — better than the 5-year trend suggests. If that persists, $113 is defensible. But I don't trust one quarter, and the 2023→2024 earnings drop from $2.52B to $1.82B (down 28%) tells me regulatory lag is already biting. Also, the insider data is essentially useless — all awards and one 1-share purchase (a rounding-error filing), with 2026 dates suggesting file corruption or forward-dated grants. Ignore the "neutral insider" signal entirely.

I agree with the synthesis verdict directionally — ED is fully priced to modestly overvalued — but I'd anchor fair value at $95-100, not $113, and I dissent from the Market Forces "avoid" framing as too aggressive for what is fundamentally a low-volatility income vehicle. The real question isn't whether ED is overvalued; it's whether a dividend-income investor has a better alternative. At a 3.08% yield with 57.6% payout ratio and mid-single-digit dividend growth, the forward total return is ~6-7%, which loses to 10-year Treasuries plus a modest credit spread on a risk-adjusted basis right now. That's the actual bear case — not regulatory Armageddon, but simple opportunity cost. I'd wait for either a pullback to the $95-100 zone (roughly 10x EV/EBITDA and 3.5%+ yield) or for the 10-year to move meaningfully lower before adding. Current holders should keep collecting the dividend; new money has better options.

GPT Reading
Independent reading · gpt-5.4 · generated 2026-07-27 00:42:44
Verdict Broadly aligned with Opus — ED is overvalued at $113, but I’d be a bit stricter on fair value at roughly $98-103 rather than $95-100 because the franchise quality is real even if the return profile is uninspiring.

What jumps out to me in ED’s numbers is not distress and not growth scarcity, but a familiar regulated-utility pattern: revenues are advancing faster than equity holders’ economics. Annual revenue has risen from $13.68B in 2021 to $16.92B in 2025, about 24% cumulative growth, and operating income has also improved from $2.83B to $3.00B after a dip in between. That says the franchise is still expanding. But net income is the tell: $1.35B, $1.66B, then a spike to $2.52B in 2023, back down to $1.82B in 2024, and up to $2.02B in 2025. That is not a compounding earnings machine; it is a regulated asset base trying to outrun financing, timing, and allowed-return friction. The latest quarter was fine — Q1 revenue up from $4.28B to $4.80B and net income from $720M to $791M — but the quarterly pattern still looks seasonal and rate-case-driven more than structurally accelerating. At $113, the stock is being valued as if the quality and defensiveness of the franchise deserve a premium even though ROE is only 8.36% and ROIC 4.59%, both too ordinary to justify much enthusiasm.

The balance sheet and valuation reinforce that. Debt of $28.38B against $24.19B of equity is normal for the sector, and a 1.02 current ratio is not some flashing red emergency for a regulated utility. The issue is simpler: if you pay 20.0x earnings, 1.68x book, and 11.0x EV/EBITDA for a utility yielding just 3.08%, you are prepaying for stability. That can work when rates are falling or when allowed returns are resetting upward; it is less appealing when the earnings power is only $2.02B on a $41.65B market cap and cash generation of $4.80B operating cash flow still has to fund a capital-hungry network. The gross margin at 53.3% and operating margin at 17.7% are solid enough, but they do not indicate hidden operating leverage ready to unlock a rerating. I see a premium utility with a good franchise and mediocre prospective returns from this price.

I agree with Opus on the core verdict: ED is modestly overvalued at $113, and I also reject the earlier model’s melodramatic “high debt risk” framing. Opus argues, correctly, that “the real risk isn’t solvency, it’s ROE compression and regulatory lag eroding the equity return.” I agree. Nothing in these numbers says balance-sheet crisis; everything says slow equity dilution of attractiveness through capital intensity and regulated returns. I also agree with Opus that the insider data should be ignored; a string of awards, an in-kind filing, and a 1-share purchase tell you nothing. And I agree with the thrust of the opportunity-cost argument: a 3.08% dividend yield with a 57.6% payout ratio is safe enough, but not compelling enough to overcome a 20x multiple for a business whose earnings path over five years has been inconsistent.

Where I disagree with Opus is on emphasis and price target generosity. Opus says fair value is $95-100 and suggests $113 becomes “defensible” if the recent quarter persists. I think that is still a touch lenient. On these figures, ED deserves to trade more like a dependable bond proxy than a growth-regulated utility, and bond proxies should not command much more than market multiples when their internal return metrics are sub-9% on equity and sub-5% on invested capital. If I take the 2025 earnings base of $2.02B and apply even a generous utility multiple of 17-18x, I get an equity value of roughly $34B-$36B, not $41.7B. That points closer to a stock in the low $100s and arguably the high $90s. I also disagree with Opus’s relative comfort with the “rate base compounds at 7-8%” upside case as a meaningful support for today’s price. Revenue growth already exists in the data, yet operating income from 2021 to 2025 has barely moved from $2.83B to $3.00B. Until that top-line and asset growth translates into cleaner per-share economic gain, I am not paying up for the capex story.

A careful skeptic of both my view and Opus’s would say we are overfitting near-term capital-market logic onto a utility that often looks expensive right before becoming more expensive. They would note that 2025 net income recovered to $2.02B, Q1 2025 was stronger than Q1 2024, gross profit climbed from $7.41B in 2023 to $9.01B in 2025, and if New York remains constructive on electrification investment, today’s 20x P/E may simply be the market assigning scarcity value to a dense urban monopoly with durable rate-base growth. That is the strongest rebuttal. I still think it is wrong at $113 because the stock already reflects that scarcity premium while offering only a 3.08% yield and middling return metrics.

Grok Reading
Grok (xAI) reads the identical raw briefing blind — one of the Big-3 independent readings — and commits to its own verdict.
No Grok reading yet for ED — it's generated by the pipeline (grok-critique step) alongside the other Big-3 seats, when a report is run on this ticker.
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-07-27 00:54:15
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality - wait for a dip 7/10
Solid regulated utility (Quality +34) trading ~12% above deserved value (Value -60) with neutral sentiment (-11) - a wait, not a buy.
The cruxEntry price. The business is fine and the tape isn't pushing it around, but at $113 vs ~$100 deserved there's no margin of safety - everything hinges on getting paid to wait for a better print.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from ED's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionStable Share Count
Earnings QualityGood Earnings Quality
The four lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+34
Solid
edge √Σ 121 · risk √Σ 87 · conf 7/10

Consolidated Edison is behaving exactly like a well-run regulated utility. Revenue has grown from $13.68B (2021) to $16.92B (2025), operating margin has stabilized in the 17-18% band, and net income has climbed from $1.35B to $2.02B. The most important trend is FCF: deeply negative in 2021-2022 (-$1.23B, -$0.53B) as capex ran hot, then flipping to +$2.16B, +$3.61B, and +$4.80B in 2023-2025. OCF/NI at 1.92x and accruals at -2.2% of assets point to clean, cash-backed earnings (Beneish M -2.61 confirms low manipulation risk).

Strengths 4
m70
Earnings backed by cash
OCF/NI of 1.92x, accruals -2.2% of assets, Beneish M -2.61 - reported profit is real cash, not accrual engineering.
m65
FCF inflection
FCF swung from -$1.23B in 2021 to +$4.80B in 2025, suggesting a completed capex cycle and genuine self-funding capability.
m55
Share count discipline
Diluted shares went from 349.6M (2021) to 358.7M (2025), a 0.6% CAGR - minimal per-share erosion, unusual restraint for a capex-heavy utility.
m50
Stable regulated economics
Operating margin has held 15.9-20.7% across four years with revenue compounding to $16.92B - textbook regulated-utility steadiness.
Concerns 3
m70
Heavy leverage
Net debt of $26.75B against $1.63B liquid cash; Altman Z of 1.14 flags distress zone. Normal for a utility but leaves no margin for rate-case setbacks or rate-shock events.
m45
Near-term refinancing exposure
Short-term debt $2.45B exceeds $1.63B in liquid cash - dependent on continuous debt-market access, which is standard for utilities but a real sensitivity to rates.
m25
Margin volatility in 2022
GM dipped to 49% and OpM to 16.7% in 2022 on fuel/commodity pass-through timing; recovered but shows exposure to regulatory lag.
This is a fine, boring regulated utility - exactly what it should be. Earnings quality is clean, FCF is finally positive and growing meaningfully, and management has not diluted shareholders to fund the capex cycle. The balance sheet looks scary in isolation ($26.75B net debt, Altman in distress) but that is table-stakes for a rate-base utility and the Z-score is not a reliable bankruptcy signal here. It is not a compounder, not a moat story - it is a rate-base grower with regulatory-mediated returns. Solid business, not exciting, and I would not confuse the recent FCF surge with structural transformation until I see the next capex plan.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Rate case outcomes at NY PSC for electric and gas subsidiaries - allowed ROE trajectory
  • Capex plan for 2026-2028 to confirm whether FCF strength persists or reverses with grid investment cycle
  • Debt maturity ladder and weighted-average coupon vs. current refinancing rates
  • Dividend payout ratio and coverage from FCF post-capex
  • Exposure to Clean Energy Transfer Act and NY climate mandate capex obligations
Valuation / Mispricing
-60
Rich
edge √Σ 32 · risk √Σ 92 · conf 7/10
Price $113 vs deserved ~$100 - roughly a 12-13% premium, no margin of safety. attractive below $95.00

The e2e composite pegs deserved value at $98.93 and the signal-adjusted FV at $100.41, implying about -11% downside from $113.01. The anchored P/E method stretches to $120.53 but that reflects rich market multiples on a slow-growth utility; the EPV floor of $77.33 says the pure earnings-power case is well below today's tape. Splitting the difference, deserved value lands near $95-105, so the current price already bakes in successful rate-base execution and grid-modernization capex paying off cleanly.

Cheap signals 2
m25
Anchored P/E supports $120
Peer/market multiple anchoring gives $120.53, so if you believe multiples hold, the premium shrinks. But this is the least conservative method.
m20
Clean earnings quality
Good earnings-quality signal means no haircut needed to deserved value; FCF has inflected positive without dilution, modestly lifting deserved price.
Rich / priced-in 3
m62
Trades ~12% above composite FV
Composite FV $98.93 and signal-adjusted $100.41 vs $113.01 price - upside is -11%. For a low-growth regulated name, that gap is meaningful.
m55
EPV floor well below price
Earnings power value of $77.33 implies the current price requires substantial growth from grid/electrification capex to justify - not a floor you'd want under a utility.
m40
3.5% yield is not a bargain
At this price the dividend yield sits near the 10Y and offers little compensation for regulatory and rate-case risk relative to buying ED closer to $95.
This is fully priced for a boring regulated utility. The business is fine - solid quality, clean earnings, disciplined share count - but I'm paying $113 for something worth about $100. The anchored-PE method flatters it to $120 by leaning on rich market multiples, and the EPV floor at $77 warns me how much growth is embedded in the price. I need it in the low-to-mid $90s before the dividend plus rate-base growth math offers a real margin of safety. At today's price, I'd rather wait.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Next NY PSC rate case ROE authorization and rate base growth trajectory
  • Capex guidance for grid modernization and electrification - is it earning the allowed return or dragging FCF
  • Any one-time gains/regulatory deferrals inflating current EPS
  • Interest expense trajectory as debt gets refinanced at higher rates
General Sentiment
-11
Balanced
tail √Σ 40 · head √Σ 51 · conf 6/10

The macro tape is mildly risk-off (VIX 18.6, S&P off its high, 10y at 4.71%) and that would normally punish equities, but ED's 0.26 beta and regulated-monopoly profile mean the tape barely grazes this name. In fact, when the S&P wobbles, defensive utility bond-proxies like ED often catch a modest bid from rotators seeking shelter and yield. The offset is rates: at 4.71% on the 10y, the bond-proxy appeal is muted versus a lower-rate regime, capping any flight-to-safety tailwind. Net macro pressure on THIS name is close to neutral, tilting very slightly positive on relative-defensiveness. The narrative side is quiet: a durable but minimal-intensity steady-compounder story with low cult coefficient. There is no active bull thesis pulling money in (no AI-grid frenzy attached to ED specifically, no electrification hype cycle running hot on this ticker) and no active bear narrative de-rating it either. Momentum is neutral, growth has decelerated modestly, and analyst tone appears unremarkable. The stock is being held by its dividend and regulated-return anchor, not pushed by any story. Net: sentiment pressure is small in both directions and roughly balanced, with a faint defensive tilt offset by rate headwinds on yield-proxy demand.

Tailwinds 2
m35
Low-beta defensive shelter in a jittery tape
With beta 0.26 and a regulated-monopoly profile, ED is a natural parking spot when the S&P is off its high and VIX is elevated. Modest rotational bid, not a stampede.
m20
Durable narrative, no cracks
The grid-modernization / electrification story is quiet but intact and durable. Nothing is actively breaking the thesis, so no de-rating pressure from narrative erosion.
Headwinds 3
m40
10y at 4.71% caps bond-proxy demand
Utilities compete with Treasuries for yield-seeking capital. A 4.71% risk-free rate blunts the appeal of a 3.5% dividend yield, muting what would otherwise be a stronger defensive tailwind.
m25
Minimal narrative intensity, low cult
No story momentum pulling in incremental buyers. Without an AI-grid or electrification hype overlay, ED gets none of the multiple expansion the market is handing to more thematic utility names.
m20
Momentum decelerating
Revenue CAGR down 5.2pp over three years signals a slow, grinding tape rather than a re-rating catalyst. Neutral technical read gives traders no reason to chase.
This is a genuinely balanced sentiment setup, not a cop-out balanced. The risk-off tape does not hit a 0.26-beta regulated utility the way it hits high-beta story stocks - if anything ED catches a small defensive bid. But that bid is capped by a 4.71% 10y that makes the 3.5% yield less compelling, and there is no active narrative pulling money in on the story side. The stock is basically being left alone by sentiment, held up by its fundamentals and dividend anchor. Slight lean neutral with a whisper of defensive tailwind - not enough to move the label off Balanced.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Direction of the 10y yield - a drop below 4.25% would materially strengthen the bond-proxy bid for ED
  • Any NY state PSC rate case rulings that could shift regulatory sentiment on allowed ROE
  • Whether grid-modernization or AI-datacenter-power narratives start attaching to ED specifically (would flip to tailwind)
  • Sector rotation flows into XLU as a tell for defensive positioning
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
Growth Outlook
not run

This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.

The forward growth verdict — is the business itself likely to grow (next 2 quarters / year 1 / years 2–3), judged against its category and against printed expectations. The full horizon ladder + creme renders on the Growth Outlook card above. Not a call on the price (Valuation owns that) or the tape (Sentiment owns that).
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Lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure), and Growth Outlook (the forward growth verdict). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Price Prediction
About flat -3.5% v0.6.0 View full prediction →

When we made this prediction on Jul 27, 2026, ED was $113.01. We expect it to be $109.00 by Jan 2027, and we consider it great value under $95.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Jul 27, 2026.

Price when predicted$113.01
Our estimate for Jan 2027$109.00-3.5%
Great value below$95.00
Price history shown (6 Months)

Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.

Post-Report Due Diligence UNSETTLED
The report is written. This is what its valuation stands on.
Analyzed Aug 26, 2026 · 02:35 1d ago
Read epv-floor ext-gem-composite anchored-pe · FY income statement, balance sheet
1 finding · 1 material · $0, re-derived on each view

Evidence for a closer look, not a verdict — no score or designation on this page has been changed by it. Items marked material are ones where a conclusion above moves to the other side of the price.

anchored-pe — the "fair value above price" reading turns on 2 inputs MATERIAL found by sensitivity, not by rule
Published $114.57 vs price $113.01. Nudging `trailing_eps` (down 5%), `adjusted_pe` (down 5%) moves the fair value to the other side of the price. This does not say those inputs are wrong — it says they are where to look first.
trailing_eps flips down 5% adjusted_pe flips down 5%
Price at analysis $113.01. This is where an investigation should start — it is not where one ends. Nothing here was checked against the filings, the tape, or the news; that is the investigator's job.
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My Notes personal — only you see this
v1.1.568 · e9713295 · 2026-08-27 06:40:37