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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Expeditors International of Washington Inc. (EXPD) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-10-07): Designation Watch · Gem Score +0 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 0 · Value 0 · Sentiment -1 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $116.28 vs $187.70 at analysis
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profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
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Expeditors International of Washington Inc.
EXPD NYSEExpeditors International of Washington Inc. is a global logistics and freight forwarding company that provides integrated supply chain services for importers and exporters. The company coordinates airfreight and ocean freight forwarding, customs brokerage, warehousing, distribution, order management, cargo insurance, and time-definite transportation, supported by a broad international network of offices and logistics professionals. It serves customers across industries such as retail, electronics, healthcare, automotive, high technology, and manufacturing, with services designed to move goods efficiently across borders and through complex trade requirements. Expeditors International of Washington Inc. operates as a non-asset-based logistics provider, purchasing transportation capacity from carriers and combining it with documentation, compliance, tracking, and delivery support to manage shipments end to end. Headquartered in Bellevue, Washington, the company plays an important role in global trade by linking carriers, shippers, and customs processes through a single logistics platform.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 5.95
Total Equity: $2.36B
Shares: 136,249,000
Total Debt: $30.26M
Cash: $1.31B
EBITDA: $1.11B
Total Debt: $30.26M
Cash: $1.31B
Revenue: $11.07B
Revenue: $11.07B
Revenue: $11.07B
Total Equity: $2.36B
Tax Rate: 25.8%
Equity: $2.36B
Total Debt: $30.26M
Cash: $1.31B
Current Liabilities: $2.07B
Long-Term Debt: $0.00
Total Debt: $30.26M
Total Equity: $2.36B
Shares: 136,249,000
Shares: 136,249,000
CapEx: -$53.10M
Shares: 136,249,000
Stock Price: $187.70
Net Income: $810.33M
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Sep 2, 2026 4:52am (35d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $16.5B | $17.1B | $9.3B | $10.6B | $11.1B |
| Cost of Revenue | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gross Profit | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating Expenses | $14.6B | $15.2B | $8.4B | $9.6B | $10.0B |
| Operating Income | $1.9B | $1.8B | $939.9M | $1.0B | $1.1B |
| Net Income | $1.4B | $1.4B | $752.9M | $810.1M | $810.3M |
| EBITDA | $2.0B | $1.9B | $1.0B | $1.1B | $1.1B |
| EPS | $8.37 | $8.33 | $5.05 | $5.75 | $5.97 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $8.27 | $8.26 | $5.01 | $5.72 | $5.95 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Sep 2, 2026 4:30am (35d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $1.7B | $2.0B | $1.5B | $1.1B | $1.3B |
| Total Current Assets | $6.6B | $4.5B | $3.4B | $3.7B | $3.8B |
| Total Assets | $7.6B | $5.6B | $4.5B | $4.8B | $4.9B |
| Current Liabilities | $3.7B | $2.1B | $1.7B | $2.1B | $2.1B |
| Long-Term Debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total Liabilities | $4.1B | $2.5B | $2.1B | $2.5B | $2.5B |
| Total Equity | $3.5B | $3.1B | $2.4B | $2.2B | $2.4B |
| Retained Earnings | $3.6B | $3.3B | $2.6B | $2.5B | $2.5B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Sep 2, 2026 5:51am (35d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $868.5M | $2.1B | $1.1B | $723.4M | $1.0B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$36.2M | -$86.8M | -$39.3M | -$40.5M | -$53.1M |
| Free Cash Flow | $832.2M | $2.0B | $1.0B | $682.9M | $953.4M |
| Acquisitions (net) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividends Paid | -$195.8M | -$213.8M | -$202.0M | -$204.1M | -$207.4M |
| Stock Buybacks | -$514.6M | -$1.6B | -$1.4B | -$855.1M | -$667.3M |
| Net Change in Cash | $200.9M | $305.4M | -$521.2M | -$364.6M | $166.0M |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Sep 2, 2026 4:52am (35d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +3.3% | -45.5% | +14.0% | +4.4% |
| Gross Profit Growth | — | — | — | — |
| Operating Income Growth | -4.4% | -48.5% | +10.8% | +1.1% |
| Net Income Growth | -4.1% | -44.5% | +7.6% | +0.0% |
| EBITDA Growth | -4.0% | -46.4% | +9.4% | +0.6% |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 31, 2026 11:44am (37d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-01 | $0.81 | — | — | — |
| 2025-12-01 | $0.77 | — | — | — |
| 2025-06-02 | $0.77 | — | — | — |
| 2024-12-02 | $0.73 | — | — | — |
| 2024-06-03 | $0.73 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-30 | $0.69 | — | — | — |
| 2023-05-31 | $0.69 | — | — | — |
| 2022-11-30 | $0.67 | — | — | — |
| 2022-05-31 | $0.67 | — | — | — |
| 2021-11-30 | $0.58 | — | — | — |
| 2021-05-28 | $0.58 | — | — | — |
| 2020-11-30 | $0.52 | — | — | — |
| 2020-05-29 | $0.52 | — | — | — |
| 2019-11-29 | $0.50 | — | — | — |
| 2019-05-31 | $0.50 | — | — | — |
| 2018-11-30 | $0.45 | — | — | — |
| 2018-05-31 | $0.45 | — | — | — |
| 2017-11-30 | $0.42 | — | — | — |
| 2017-05-30 | $0.42 | — | — | — |
| 2016-11-29 | $0.40 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Risk : Reward — upside vs downside from this company's own quarters
Computed 2026-09-18 02:42A +1σ run of quarters pays -16%; a −1σ run costs 82%. Ratio -0.2:1 (μ 8.6%, σ 22.2% , 16 pairs).
Older method (repeat-worst-quarter): -0.2 : 1
| Case | Growth | Margin | Fair value | vs price ($187.70) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull — recovery | +28% | 9.2% | $158.04 | -16% |
| Base — stabilizes | +18% | 8.0% | $106.55 | -43% |
| Bear — keeps slipping | +9% | 6.8% | $69.84 | -63% |
| Stress — last quarter repeats | -3% | 6.6% | $45.47 | -76% |
| Upside — a +1σ run of quarters (v2) | +31% | 8.3% | $156.89 | -16% |
| Stress — a −1σ run of quarters (v2) | -14% | 7.0% | $33.50 | -82% |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Growth Outlook
Analyzed 2026-09-02 06:04The question every valuation on this page silently assumes: is this company likely to grow? Judged forward — the business, its category, the world — against what's already printed.
Claude Reading
The raw numbers tell a more interesting story than the "cyclical trough" framing suggests. Q2 2026 revenue of $3.50B is the highest print in the series — up 32% YoY from Q2 2025's $2.65B — and net margin held at 7.6%. Trailing four quarters revenue is roughly $12.0B vs. the 2025 full year of $11.07B, so the run-rate has already inflected above last year. But — and this matters — 2022 did $17.07B at 8% net margins producing $1.36B NI, while today's run-rate produces roughly $918M. So the "recovering toward 2022" narrative requires another 40%+ revenue expansion from here, and freight rates simply don't support that absent another supply shock. The recovery is real; the magnitude priced in is not.
On the multiples: 31.5x P/E and 21.8x EV/EBITDA on a freight forwarder — even a best-in-class one — is aggressive. ROIC of 72.7% and ROE of 34% are genuinely elite and justify a quality premium, but the reference set matters. C.H. Robinson trades ~25x depressed earnings; Kuehne+Nagel closer to 18x. EXPD's premium to peers is defensible on quality, but the absolute multiple assumes the 2021-2022 earnings peak wasn't a pandemic anomaly. FCF CAGR of -3% and earnings CAGR of 3.8% over the lookback don't support 31x. The synthesis $124 fair value feels directionally right; I'd anchor somewhere $135-150 giving credit for the Q2 acceleration and the fortress balance sheet ($1.31B cash, $30M debt), which is still 20-28% below spot.
Where I partially dissent from the prior models: Market Forces calling this "winning share but sacrificing profitability" doesn't match the tape — Q2 2026 margins at 7.6% are in line with the 2024 average and above Q2/Q3 2025 troughs, so margin compression from share gains isn't obvious in the recent prints. The thesis-evaluation score of -8 (nearly balanced) undersells the valuation risk given the multiple; I'd score this more negative. Conversely, the classification as "mature earner" is exactly right and the narrative layer's "quiet-quality anchored" read is the most honest framing in the file — this isn't a story stock, it's a quality compounder priced 30-50% rich. A careful contrarian would argue that in a world of persistent supply-chain complexity (tariffs, re-shoring optionality, Red Sea disruptions rerouting Asia-Europe flows), asset-light forwarders with pricing power and zero debt are exactly the vehicle you want, and that 30x for 70% ROIC with negative net debt is not obviously expensive versus, say, Copart or Fastenal at similar multiples with lower returns. That's the strongest bull case and it's not crazy — but it requires believing the complexity premium is permanent, which is a faith-based position.
Data gaps worth flagging: the insider file is essentially empty (one 1,400-share gift), which is neither bullish nor bearish but removes a normally useful signal. Gross margin isn't reported, which is a real blind spot for a forwarder where the buy-sell spread on freight is the entire economics. The 2026 quarterly data is unusual (we're presumably mid-2026 in the file's reference frame), and the sequential jump from Q1 2026 $2.78B to Q2 2026 $3.50B — a 26% QoQ move — is anomalously large for this business and deserves scrutiny before extrapolating. If that Q2 print reflects a one-time rate spike (Red Sea, tariff front-loading, etc.), the trajectory collapses. I agree with the synthesis verdict directionally — overvalued — but I'd set fair value at $140-150 rather than $124, reflecting the Q2 acceleration and balance sheet quality, which still leaves 20%+ downside from $187.70. Not a short (quality compounders grind higher against shorts), but not a buy here. Wait for either a $150 handle or evidence that the Q2 revenue jump is durable rather than event-driven.
GPT Reading
At $187.7, EXPD is being priced like a premium compounder while the actual income statement still looks like a post-cycle normalization story. The business is unquestionably high quality operationally: almost no debt ($30.3M) against $1.31B of cash, capex only $53.1M on $11.07B of 2025 revenue, and free cash flow of $953.4M converting cleanly from $1.01B of operating cash flow. But quality alone does not justify 31.5x earnings and 21.8x EV/EBITDA for a freight forwarder whose annual net income is still just $810M versus $1.36B-$1.42B in 2021-2022. Revenue has recovered from $9.30B in 2023 to $10.60B in 2024 and $11.07B in 2025, yet it remains far below the $16.5B-$17.1B pandemic years, and operating income of $1.05B is still barely 58% of 2022’s $1.82B. The market is paying a near-peak multiple for earnings that are neither collapsing nor meaningfully reaccelerating.
The quarterly pattern reinforces that skepticism. Recent quarters are stable to improving, but not in a way that supports a huge premium. Revenue moved from $2.67B in 2025-03 to $2.65B in 2025-06, $2.89B in 2025-09, $2.86B in 2025-12, then to $2.78B in 2026-03 and $3.50B in 2026-06. Net income tracked from $203.8M to $183.6M to $222.3M to $200.7M to $229.6M and then $266.2M. That latest quarter is good, but the key point is margins are not rebuilding toward the old peak economics; they are living in a 7.0%-8.3% net margin band, with 2025 annual operating margin only 9.5%. This is a decent, disciplined operator in a normalized freight market, not a company demonstrating structural earnings acceleration. Annualized off the last four quarters, net income is roughly $919M, which still leaves the stock around 26x run-rate earnings. For a mature logistics intermediary in a competitive, cyclical industry, that is rich.
The real bull case is not hard to see: EXPD deserves a premium because it is one of the rare logistics names with fortress liquidity, effectively no leverage, excellent ROE at 34.4%, and an asset-light model that throws off cash through cycles. If freight volumes and pricing continue to recover, earnings can rise sharply without meaningful capital needs, so today’s multiple may be less demanding on mid-cycle profits than on depressed-cycle profits. There is also evidence the business is holding up better than a typical cyclical: 2025 revenue grew to $11.07B from $10.60B, 2026 quarterly revenue has accelerated sharply in the latest print, and net income never came close to the kind of distress one sees in asset-heavy transport. A smart bull would say the market is paying for resilience, not just growth, and that a company with $1.3B cash, sub-$1B annual FCF, and a long record of staying profitable merits more than a commodity multiple.
I still weigh that argument less heavily because the current valuation already assumes a lot of that resilience and then some. A 10.8x price-to-book and 2.31x sales multiple for a company with low-single-digit recent revenue growth and flat recent earnings is difficult to defend unless you believe margins and earnings are about to inflect materially upward. The contradiction I see in the data is this: cash generation is excellent, but FCF is not growing; revenue is recovering, but still normalized; earnings are stable, but nowhere near prior highs. This is exactly the setup where investors can overpay for “quality” and confuse downside protection with upside. EXPD is a very good business, but the stock price is closer to what you would pay for a high-teens grower or a clear cyclical rebound than for a company whose 2024 and 2025 net income were both about $810M.
What would change my mind is simple and numerical. If the next 2-3 quarters show revenue sustaining above $3.2B with net income consistently above $275M-$300M, that would imply annual earnings power moving through $1.1B-$1.2B and make the current price much easier to underwrite. Likewise, if annual operating margin can move from 9.5% back toward 11%-12% without a freight-rate spike, that would suggest EXPD’s competitive position is stronger than I’m giving it credit for. Absent that, I think fair value is materially below the current quote because the market is capitalizing a recovery that the reported numbers have only partially delivered.
Grok Reading
The raw numbers describe a classic late-cycle freight forwarder that has already absorbed the brutal post-pandemic rate collapse and is now grinding higher off the trough, yet still trades as if the 2021–22 supernormal peak is the new baseline. Revenue fell from $17.07B in 2022 to $9.30B in 2023, then clawed back only to $10.60B in 2024 and $11.07B in 2025; net income sat flat at $810M both years versus the $1.36–1.42B peak. The most recent quarter (rev $3.50B, NI $266M, 7.6% margin) is the first clean break higher and implies an annualized run-rate closer to $13–14B if sustained, but that still leaves trailing earnings power well below the prior cycle. What stands out is the capital efficiency: $953M FCF on $53M capex, essentially zero net debt ($30M debt vs $1.31B cash), ROIC of 73%, and ROE of 34%. Those are genuine quality markers for an asset-light model. The contradiction is valuation: 31.5× trailing earnings, 10.8× book, and 21.8× EV/EBITDA on a business whose five-year earnings CAGR is only 3.8% and whose FCF CAGR is negative. The market is paying a growth multiple for a mature earner whose volume recovery is real but whose pricing power remains contested by structural overcapacity.
The quantitative models’ $124 fair-value anchor (34% below the $187.70 print) is directionally correct; the premium is almost entirely narrative—quiet-quality compounding, customer stickiness, and the hope that Expeditors will push FCF back toward $1.3B+ by 2029. That embeds roughly 29% annual FCF growth from today’s $953M base, an aggressive ask when recent revenue growth is only mid-single digits and margins have stabilized in a 7–8% band rather than expanding. The accelerating quarterly revenue trend is the one hard positive that keeps the story from collapsing outright, but it has not yet translated into operating leverage or multiple compression.
A smart opponent would correctly note that EXPD has already demonstrated it can defend mid-to-high single-digit net margins through a freight depression, that the balance sheet is fortress-like, and that a true cyclical recovery plus modest share gains could lift NI toward $1.1–1.2B without heroic assumptions—putting the stock at a more digestible low-20s earnings multiple. They would also argue that the 9.1% revenue CAGR and sector-leader status justify a structural premium to pure-play asset-heavy carriers. I weigh those points as real but insufficient: even on a normalized $1.1B earnings base the stock is still ~22×, and history shows freight-forwarder multiples compress hard once the recovery narrative is fully priced. The “winning share by sacrificing profitability” dynamic flagged in the market-forces layer further caps upside to the multiple.
I would flip if two consecutive quarters deliver revenue above $3.6B with net margins sustainably above 8.5%, or if full-year 2026 NI clearly clears $1.05B while management signals pricing discipline rather than volume-at-all-costs. A material drawdown in ocean capacity or a multi-quarter spike in airfreight yields would also reset the cycle thesis upward. Until then the risk/reward at $188 remains skewed to the downside.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
None surfaced.
None surfaced.
None surfaced.
None surfaced.
EXPD sits in a genuinely calm sentiment pocket. The active narrative is 'quiet-quality compounder' at moderate intensity and durability, and the freshest news frame ('Simply the Best' in Air Freight and Logistics Q2) reinforces the best-in-class label rather than challenging it. Momentum is strong_positive with low revenue volatility, which is exactly the profile that gets rewarded when the tape is neutral and VIX is a benign 16.3 - beta of 1.05 means market chop lands only in line, and the defensive-industrial framing dampens macro headwind transmission. On the other side, the very first article in the news window explicitly flags the stock as 'Above Fair Value After Its 68% Run' with DCF-based checks pointing to an expensive entry. That is a valuation-narrative crack starting to appear in the sentiment stream - not a story collapse, but the kind of drumbeat that caps multiple expansion and invites profit-taking on any macro wobble. With no cult following to defend the price and a mature, cyclical industry backdrop (freight normalization is the standing bear frame), the upside narrative pressure is muted. Net: the story is intact and admired, but the 'priced for perfection' meme is now in the tape. Pressure is roughly balanced, with a slight defensive tilt from the quiet-quality archetype in a neutral regime.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Whether 'above fair value' framing spreads to sell-side notes and triggers downgrades or target trims
- Freight rate and volume data prints that could revive the late-cycle bear narrative
- Any rotation out of defensive quality-compounders into higher-beta cyclicals if the tape turns risk-on
- VIX break above 20 or S&P drawdown extending - would test whether EXPD's low-vol bid holds
The world EXPD sells into is one of permanent trade friction rather than trade growth: tariff regimes shifting, de minimis rules rewritten, supply chains re-routed through Southeast Asia and Mexico. That is bad for aggregate tonnage but excellent for a company whose product is navigating complexity — customs brokerage and multi-modal re-routing are exactly what shippers outsource when rules change monthly. Capacity discipline in air and ocean keeps spreads volatile, and volatility is EXPD's friend because it is non-asset and buys capacity rather than owning it. The offset: goods consumption is growing at roughly GDP with rates high, so the structural volume pool expands slowly, and every rate-driven earnings surge historically gives most of itself back. Net read — the world supports a durable, modestly-growing, high-return franchise taking share in a stagnant pool, punctuated by cycles that flatter and then flatter-in-reverse the reported numbers.
When we made this prediction on Sep 2, 2026, EXPD was $186.09. We expect it to be $166.00 by Mar 2027. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Sep 2, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.