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OLDER Analysis Report
Aug 24, 2026
44 days ago · 100% complete
This report is 44 days old — newer filings and price moves since then are not reflected.
For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page

What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Kimberly-Clark Corporation (KMB) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.

Our current read (analysis of 2026-10-07): Designation Low · Gem Score -29 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 27 · Value -66 · Sentiment -48 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $89.52 vs $109.31 at analysis

Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable reference-name attribute you can cite):

  • profile-header / price-overview — company profile, live quote, market cap
  • extended-analysis — the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memo
  • future-predictions — our forward price-band predictions
  • market-narrative / ai-findings / gpt-critique — narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)
  • Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers): price-history, income-trend, key-metrics, financials (statement tables), insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.

More for machine readers: site briefing at /llms.txt · any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER · raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds); every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.

Kimberly-Clark Corporation

KMB NASDAQ
Consumer Defensive · Household & Personal Products
Dallas, TX 75261-9100, United States kimberly-clark.com Updated Aug 24, 4:24am
Price
$109.31
Market Cap
$36.3B
Employees
36,000
Beta
0.28
Avg Volume
3,452,377
Last Dividend
$5.10
CEO
Mr. Michael D. Hsu

Kimberly-Clark Corporation is a global consumer goods company specializing in essential personal care and tissue products for everyday use. Headquartered in Dallas, Texas, it focuses on categories such as baby and child care, adult incontinence, feminine care, family care, and professional hygiene solutions. The company manufactures items made primarily from natural and synthetic fibers, leveraging nonwoven and absorbency technologies to produce disposable diapers, training and youth pants, baby wipes, feminine and incontinence care products, as well as facial and bathroom tissue, paper towels, napkins, wipes, soaps, and sanitizers. Kimberly-Clark markets its products under widely recognized brands including Huggies, Kleenex, Scott, Cottonelle, Kotex, Depend, Poise, Andrex, Pull-Ups, GoodNites, Viva, and WypAll, serving consumers, healthcare providers, and businesses across more than 175 countries. Distribution spans supermarkets, mass merchandisers, drugstores, warehouse clubs, department stores, professional distributors, and e-commerce channels, positioning Kimberly-Clark as a key player in global hygiene and tissue markets. Founded in 1872, the company today operates with a strong presence in both consumer and professional segments worldwide.

Runs with full report Generated: Aug 24, 2026 5:37am
Price Overview
Price at report time
$109.31
as of Aug 24, 5:30am (44d ago)
Change · Aug 24
+0.62 (+0.57%)
Day Range
$108.07 – $109.88
52-Week Range
$92.42 – $134.38
50-Day MA
$108.63
200-Day MA
$102.93
Volume
2,102,600.00
Right now · live
Log in to get the live feed
Members see the real-time price and the move since this report (over 44d).
Share Structure
Outstanding 332,560,000.00
Float 331,315,238.00
Free Float 99.6%
High free float — 99.6% of shares trade freely, ~0.4% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Aug 24, 2026 5:49am (44d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Aug 24, 2026 5:49am (44d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
TD Twelve Data statement HEX SEC filing
Industry comparison last run: Aug 24, 2026 5:35am
P/E · trailing (TTM) (Price per dollar of earnings over the past year — not a run-rate or forward P/E)
HEX
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
18.01
Stock Price: $109.31
EPS (Diluted): 6.07
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
HEX
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
22.34
Stock Price: $109.31
Total Equity: $1.63B
Shares: 333,200,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
HEX
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
11.50
Market Cap: $36.28B
Total Debt: $694.00M
Cash: $688.00M
EBITDA: $3.16B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
HEX
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$36.3B
Market Cap: $36.28B
Total Debt: $694.00M
Cash: $688.00M
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
HEX
Gross Profit / Revenue
36.0%
Gross Profit: $5.92B
Revenue: $16.45B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
HEX
Operating Income / Revenue
14.3%
Operating Income: $2.35B
Revenue: $16.45B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
HEX
Net Income / Revenue
12.3%
Net Income: $2.02B
Revenue: $16.45B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
HEX
Net Income / Total Equity
124.0%
Net Income: $2.02B
Total Equity: $1.63B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
HEX
NOPAT / Invested Capital
111.2%
Operating Income: $2.35B
Tax Rate: 22.6%
Equity: $1.63B
Total Debt: $694.00M
Cash: $688.00M
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
HEX
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
0.75
Current Assets: $5.31B
Current Liabilities: $7.13B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
HEX
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.43
Short-Term Debt: $694.00M
Long-Term Debt: $0.00
Total Debt: $694.00M
Total Equity: $1.63B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
HEX
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$49.36
Revenue: $16.45B
Shares: 333,200,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
HEX
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$4.89
Total Equity: $1.63B
Shares: 333,200,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
HEX
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$4.92
Operating CF: $2.78B
CapEx: -$1.14B
Shares: 333,200,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
TD
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
4.7%
Last Dividend: $5.10
Stock Price: $109.31
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
HEX
Dividends Paid / Net Income
—
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $2.02B
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Aug 24, 2026 5:35am
Compares KMB against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 24, 2026 5:49am (44d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $19.4B $20.2B $20.4B $20.1B $16.4B
Cost of Revenue $13.5B $14.0B $13.4B $12.9B $10.5B
Gross Profit $6.0B $6.2B $7.0B $7.2B $5.9B
Operating Expenses $3.4B $3.5B $4.7B $4.0B $3.6B
Operating Income $2.6B $2.7B $2.3B $3.2B $2.4B
Net Income $1.8B $1.9B $1.8B $2.5B $2.0B
EBITDA $3.3B $3.4B $3.1B $4.0B $3.2B
EPS $5.38 $5.73 $5.22 $7.58 $6.09
EPS (Diluted) $5.35 $5.72 $5.21 $7.55 $6.07
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 24, 2026 5:30am (44d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $270.0M $427.0M $1.1B $1.0B $688.0M
Total Current Assets $5.6B $5.7B $5.7B $5.6B $5.3B
Total Assets $17.8B $18.0B $17.3B $16.5B $17.1B
Current Liabilities $6.7B $7.3B $6.9B $7.0B $7.1B
Long-Term Debt — — — — —
Total Liabilities $17.1B $17.3B $16.3B $15.6B $15.5B
Total Equity $737.0M $700.0M $1.1B $975.0M $1.6B
Retained Earnings $7.9B $8.2B $8.4B $9.3B $9.6B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 24, 2026 5:49am (44d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $2.7B $2.7B $3.5B $3.2B $2.8B
Capital Expenditure -$1.0B -$876.0M -$766.0M -$721.0M -$1.1B
Free Cash Flow $1.7B $1.9B $2.8B $2.5B $1.6B
Acquisitions (net) $0 -$46.0M $0 $0 —
Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) $336.0M -$312.0M -$112.0M -$554.0M -$550.0M
Dividends Paid -$1.5B -$1.6B -$1.6B — —
Stock Buybacks -$400.0M -$100.0M -$225.0M -$1.0B -$141.0M
Net Change in Cash -$33.0M $157.0M $666.0M -$72.0M -$320.0M
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 24, 2026 5:49am (44d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +3.8% +1.3% -1.8% -18.0%
Gross Profit Growth +3.9% +13.1% +2.1% -17.5%
Operating Income Growth +4.7% -12.6% +36.9% -26.8%
Net Income Growth +6.6% -8.8% +44.3% -20.6%
EBITDA Growth +3.2% -9.8% +28.9% -20.9%
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 19, 2026 12:06am (49d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-09-04 $1.28 — — —
2026-06-05 $1.28 — — —
2026-03-06 $1.28 — — —
2025-12-05 $1.26 — — —
2025-09-05 $1.26 — — —
2025-06-06 $1.26 — — —
2025-03-07 $1.26 — — —
2024-12-06 $1.22 — — —
2024-09-06 $1.22 — — —
2024-06-07 $1.22 — — —
2024-03-07 $1.22 — — —
2023-12-07 $1.18 — — —
2023-09-07 $1.18 — — —
2023-06-08 $1.18 — — —
2023-03-09 $1.18 — — —
2022-12-08 $1.16 — — —
2022-09-08 $1.16 — — —
2022-06-09 $1.16 — — —
2022-03-03 $1.16 — — —
2021-12-09 $1.14 — — —
0Company Classification 1Industry Landscape 2Company Momentum 3Forward Projection 4aDCF Valuation 4bEarnings Power Value 4cAnchored PE 4dReverse DCF 4eRevenue-Based DCF 4fAnchored P/S 4gScenario Analysis 4hDividend Discount Model 4iBook Value Analysis 4jInsider Activity 4fCash Flow Quality 4gDebt Maturity Risk 4hMacro Environment 4iSector Intelligence 4jRevenue Confidence 4kSensitivity Analysis 4lSector Demand Cycle 5AI Investigation 5bThesis Evaluation 6Valuation Synthesis
computed not applicable 18 computed · 6 not applicable
Risk : Reward — upside vs downside from this company's own quarters
Not computed yet
Why there is no ratio: Risk:reward has not been computed for this name yet — its report predates the mechanical valuation chain. It is added, at $0, the next time a report or the nightly touches this ticker.
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for KMB — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Growth Outlook
Analyzed 2026-08-24 05:56

The question every valuation on this page silently assumes: is this company likely to grow? Judged forward — the business, its category, the world — against what's already printed.

Stalling Reported top line is contracting hard on portfolio reshaping (International Family Care/Professional exit), while the retained core is only flat-to-low-single-digit in a barely-growing category — so growth is decaying toward zero, not collapsing, with EPS held up by cost transformation. conf 7/10
Inline with category Category growing · Category (Household & Personal Products) is in mild expansion with ~1.4% median recent growth and 2.1% industry revenue CAGR. KMB's reported revenue is down ~18% YoY, but that gap is dominated by deliberate divestiture rather than lost shelf; the retained core appears roughly flat — i.e., at or marginally under a low-growth category.
Next 2 quarters
Stalling
Reported revenue still lapping the divested businesses, organic volume roughly flat with promotional intensity in tissue and diapers; EPS supported by cost programs rather than demand.
≈ inline with expectations
Year 1
Stalling
Full-year reported sales decline as portfolio changes annualize; organic growth near zero as price/mix offsets volume loss. Earnings roughly defended by productivity, not expanded by demand.
≈ inline with expectations
Years 2–3
Holding
Once the divested revenue is out of the comparison, the retained core should compound at roughly category pace — flat units, positive price/mix, adult-care demographics — with cost transformation holding earnings power. Not growth, but not erosion.
↑ above expectations
The creme: each rung's call measured against what's already printed (vs analyst estimates · vs guidance / FY consensus · vs price-implied growth) — expectations in print are already in the price, so only the variant margin can pay. Hover a rung's chip for the margin read.
Growth drivers
47 Adult incontinence / aging demographics — Depend and adult-care adjacencies are the one sub-category with genuine secular volume tailwind in KMB's retained portfolio; demographics compound independently of the economic cycle and support mix-led revenue even when tissue and diaper units are flat.
51 Cost/productivity transformation feeding EPS — The estimate record shows five straight quarters of meeting-or-beating EPS (+3%, +55% on a small base, +2%, +5%), consistent with supply-chain and overhead savings converting flat volumes into earnings. Earnings CAGR of +7.0% against a -10.3% revenue CAGR is the fingerprint of self-help, not demand.
41 Inelastic, replenishment-cycle demand with brand pricing — Kleenex/Huggies/Scott sit in non-deferrable purchase categories; KMB has demonstrated ability to hold price/mix. This is what makes 'Holding' rather than 'Shrinking' the structural default once divestiture optics lap.
28 Simplified, higher-margin retained portfolio — Divesting lower-margin international tissue/professional concentrates the company on North America personal care, where margin structure and share are strongest — a smaller base that can grow at or slightly above category.
Growth risks
54 Private-label and value trade-down — Tissue and diapers are the two most private-label-penetrable shelves in household products; a value-seeking consumer pressures volume and forces promotional spend, capping realized price/mix even when list pricing holds.
48 Industry-wide margin compression — Landscape shows -2.5pp operating margin erosion across the industry over three years alongside only 2.1% industry revenue CAGR — pulp, resin, freight and tariff exposure mean cost savings are partly a treadmill, not incremental earnings.
39 Baby-care birth-rate drag — Huggies' addressable unit base shrinks with declining births in developed markets; structural unit decline must be offset by premiumization every year, an increasingly thin lever.
37 Portfolio actions removed the growth end of the business — Exiting international/emerging-market exposure removes the faster-growing half of the demand pool; the retained business is more defensive but structurally lower-growth. Any large offsetting acquisition adds integration and leverage execution risk before it adds growth.
26 Reported-revenue optics stay negative near term — Recent revenue YoY of -18% and earnings YoY of -20.6% keep headline comparisons ugly until the divestiture laps; genuine organic softness is hard to distinguish from portfolio math in the interim.
The world KMB sells into is stable in need and stingy in wallet. Hygiene consumption doesn't cycle, but the consumer's willingness to pay for branded absorbency does, and that is where private label has been taking units. Macro headwinds with a 10y at 4.69 matter less for demand than for the cost of carrying a reshaped, potentially levered balance sheet. Input and freight inflation plus tariff exposure keep the industry's margin curve pointed down, which means KMB's growth story is a self-help story: fewer SKUs, fewer geographies, more productivity. That can hold earnings power flat-to-slightly-up for years, but it cannot manufacture volume growth. The structural question is whether premium mix in adult care and skin health outruns unit decay in baby and tissue — currently close to a draw.
Growth position composite -8
ShrinkingStallingHoldingGrowingAccelerating
30Next 2 quarters · Stalling
30Year 1 · Stalling
50Years 2–3 · Holding
-8Composite (−100…+100)
A research prediction, not advice. Forward-graded: each rung is scored against the prints that follow it. Not an input to the GEM designation — track record first.
Claude Reading
Independent analyst synthesis · claude-opus-4-7 · generated 2026-08-24 05:48:56
Verdict Modestly overvalued at $109 — clean run-rate fair value $95–105 depending on whether Q2 2026's margin compression reverses; wait for Q3 print, buy under $98.

The raw quarterly tape tells a cleaner story than the models let on, but not a bullish one. Strip out Q4 2024's $6.53B (which is clearly the pre-divestiture consolidated print — the personal-care international carve-out to Suzano closed in 2025) and KMB's post-divestiture quarterly run-rate is remarkably steady: $4.05B, $4.16B, $4.15B, $4.08B, $4.16B, $4.19B. That's a ~$16.6B annualized business growing low single digits sequentially — not a "collapsing" franchise. The revenue_cagr of -10.3% and YoY -18% are optical artifacts of the divestiture, and the momentum module is essentially broken here. The synthesis and thesis-eval models both partially fall for it: the "revenue decline may not be finished" bear (72 weight) is likely double-counting a one-time perimeter change.

That said, the margin story is genuinely worrying and the models under-weight it. Q2 2026 net margin dropped to 8.2% from 16% the prior quarter and from a 12–14% recent band; NI fell to $345M from $665M on flat revenue. Gross margin at 36% is fine, but operating margin at 14.3% is not "sector leader" territory for a post-divestiture pure-play that was supposed to be higher-quality mix. FCF of $1.64B on $16.45B revenue is a 10% FCF margin — decent, but at $36.3B market cap that's a ~4.5% FCF yield against a 4.67% dividend yield, meaning the dividend is being funded roughly dollar-for-dollar by FCF with nothing left for buybacks or debt paydown. The pb_ratio of 22x and roe of 124% flag the same thing: equity has been hollowed out ($1.63B on $16.5B revenue), and the balance sheet is thinner than a defensive compounder should carry. Current ratio 0.75 is tight.

Where I'd push back on the prior models: the synthesis fair value of $91 and the narrative model's DCF anchor of ~$91 are suspiciously coincident and both likely lean on trailing metrics that blend pre- and post-divestiture periods. If you take the clean run-rate — $16.6B revenue, assume operating margin normalizes back to 15–16% (call it $2.55B op income), tax at 23%, ~$1.96B normalized NI — that's ~$5.90 EPS on 332M shares. At an 18x staples multiple you get $106, at 17x you get $100, at 20x (peer PG trades richer) you get $118. So $109 isn't egregious; it's within a reasonable band assuming Q2 2026's margin compression was transitory (input costs, restructuring charges). If Q2 is the new normal, fair value is closer to $80. The contrarian bull case the models miss: post-divestiture KMB is a higher-return, lower-capex business, and the reported ROIC of 111% (nonsense as printed, but directionally reflecting the equity shrinkage) means incremental capital is highly productive. A leveraged recap or accelerated buyback with the divestiture proceeds could re-rate the equity meaningfully.

The insider tape is unhelpful — small option exercises with in-kind tax withholdings and two modest May sales; no conviction signal either way. What matters is the next 2–3 prints: does operating margin recover to 15%+ or was Q2 2026's 8.2% net margin the reveal that private-label pressure in tissue/towel is finally biting? I lean toward the synthesis "fully priced" call but with less conviction than the -16 thesis score implies — the bear case is partly built on divestiture-distorted growth math. Fair value $95–105 depending on margin normalization; current $109 sits at the top of that band with a 4.7% yield acting as a floor. Not a short, not a buy. Wait for Q3 to see if margins mean-revert, and demand a $95 handle for a starter position given the balance sheet is levered enough that a rate shock or further volume erosion has real downside.

GPT Reading
Independent reading · gpt-5.4 · generated 2026-08-24 05:49:13
Verdict Overvalued at $109 — fair value is closer to $90-$100 unless post-reset earnings prove they can sustainably re-expand above $2.1B.

At $109, Kimberly-Clark looks expensive for what the actual numbers now show: a smaller, lower-earning business than the headline “defensive staples compounder” story implies. The cleanest way to see it is to stop averaging across the old and new perimeter and look at current run-rate economics. The last four quarters sum to roughly $16.6B of revenue and $1.96B of net income, which is basically flat-to-down sales with earnings that are no better than 2022 and still below the 2024 peak of $2.55B. Yet the stock trades at about 18x earnings, 2.2x sales, and 11.5x EV/EBITDA. For a business with organic upside likely in the low single digits, that multiple only works if margins are durably improving or if the revenue reset was a one-time portfolio clean-up that leaves a better franchise behind. I do not think the reported data prove that yet.

What stands out most is that the quality of the 2025 “improvement” is less impressive than it first appears. Annual revenue fell from $20.06B in 2024 to $16.45B in 2025, an almost 18% decline, while operating income fell from $3.21B to $2.35B, down 27%. Net income dropped from $2.55B to $2.02B, down 21%. So this was not a story of shedding low-margin sales and cleanly protecting profit dollars; profit shrank materially too. Gross margin did improve over a multiyear horizon, reaching 36.0% in 2025 versus 30.8% in 2022, but operating margin in 2025 was only 14.3%, still not evidence of a structurally stronger earnings machine after the shrink. Quarterly data also do not show a business clearly reaccelerating: revenue has sat in a very tight $4.05B-$4.19B range for six straight quarters, while net margin swung from 14%-16% in early periods down to 8.2% in the latest quarter. A true “mature earner” deserves a premium when the earnings stream is visibly steady; here, the sales base is steady, but the profit stream is not.

The balance sheet and cash flow are better than the skeptics might admit, but they are not strong enough to justify paying up. Net debt is basically nil with $694M debt against $688M cash, which removes a major risk. Operating cash flow of $2.78B and free cash flow of $1.64B are solid in absolute terms, and they support the 4.7% dividend yield. But on a $36.3B market cap, that free cash flow is only about a 4.5% yield before asking for any growth at all. For a no-growth-to-low-growth staples company facing retailer pressure, private label competition, and a current ratio below 0.75, that is not a bargain. The extreme P/B of 22x and ROE above 120% are not signs of economic magic; they mostly tell you the equity base is very small at $1.63B, so the accounting optics flatter returns. I would much rather underwrite KMB on earnings and FCF, and on those measures the stock looks more like a bond substitute priced for safety than an undervalued operating asset.

The best argument against this bearish read is straightforward: the market may be correctly looking through a portfolio change and valuing the remaining business on resilience, not size. If the 2024 annual revenue figure includes a business later divested while the recent quarterly run rate reflects the new base, then the apparent collapse from $20B to $16.5B overstates deterioration. On that view, the important numbers are the stable recent quarters around $4.1B of revenue, annualized operating cash flow near $2.8B, near-zero net debt, and a dividend that appears covered. A bull would also point out that gross margin has expanded by roughly 500 bps since 2021, that annual net income in 2025 still exceeded 2023 despite lower revenue, and that staples investors routinely pay 17x-20x for durability. I weigh those points less heavily because the latest quarter’s 8.2% net margin is exactly the kind of slippage that breaks the “just pay up for stability” thesis. If the post-reset business were truly superior, I would expect more visible consistency in quarterly profitability than we have.

What would change my mind is evidence that the new KMB can hold sales around $16.5B-$16.8B while restoring earnings power above the current run rate. Specifically, I would want to see at least two consecutive quarters with revenue above $4.2B and net margin back in the 12%-14% range, or annual operating income tracking back toward $2.6B-$2.8B without another leg down in volumes. Stronger free cash flow matters too: if FCF can move from $1.64B toward $2.0B while capex normalizes and the dividend remains comfortably covered, then $109 would look more defensible. Absent that, I think investors are paying a premium multiple for a franchise that has shrunk, has not fully proven its new earnings floor, and offers limited upside beyond income.

Grok Reading
Independent reading · grok-4.5 · generated 2026-08-24 05:49:48
Verdict Overvalued at $109; fair value nearer $91–$98 until FCF and organic growth stabilize above the post-divestiture base

Kimberly-Clark’s numbers describe a company that deliberately got smaller and has not yet proved the smaller version is more valuable. Annual revenue fell from $20.06B in 2024 to $16.45B in 2025, a roughly 18% cut that the quarterly run-rate has locked in: six of the last seven reported quarters sit in a tight $4.05–$4.19B band, with the anomalous $6.53B print in late 2024 looking like a timing or disposition artifact rather than a growth pulse. On that cleansed base, 2025 delivered $2.02B of net income, $2.78B of operating cash flow and $1.64B of free cash flow after $1.14B of capex. The market is paying $109.31, or about 18× that earnings and roughly 22× that free cash flow, for a franchise whose trailing revenue CAGR is −10.3% and whose free-cash-flow CAGR is −23.2%. Post-cut margins are respectable—gross 36%, operating 14.3%, net 12.3%—but the most recent quarter (June 2026) compressed net margin to 8.2% on $345M of income, a reminder that the earnings power is still lumpy.

The balance sheet explains why classic return ratios look heroic and should be ignored. Equity is only $1.63B against a $36B equity value, so reported ROE of 124% and a 22× price-to-book are arithmetic residues of decades of buybacks and dividends, not evidence of a high-ROIC compounding machine. Net debt is essentially zero ($694M debt versus $688M cash), which is a genuine strength, but the current ratio of 0.75 and a dividend that already absorbs nearly all of the $1.64B free cash flow leave little slack if volumes or mix deteriorate further. At a 4.67% yield the stock is being sold as a bond substitute; the bond only works if free cash flow stops shrinking.

I read the stock as overvalued relative to the cash it can now generate. The quantitative composite pointing to roughly $91–$98 of fair value is directionally right: an 18× multiple and a 2.2× sales multiple are full for a low-single-digit (at best) organic grower in categories where private label and retailer power erode pricing. The “divestiture-cleansed base is stable” bull case is visible in the flat $4.1B quarters, yet stability after a 20% revenue amputation is not the same as a re-rating catalyst, and the June 2026 margin air-pocket shows the earnings bridge is not yet airtight.

The strongest contrary case is straightforward. Consumer-staples peers with brand portfolios like Huggies, Kleenex and Depend routinely clear 16–20× earnings when rates are benign and investors want recession cover; Kimberly-Clark’s EV/EBITDA of 11.5× is not extreme on that peer set, debt is negligible, cash conversion remains high, and adult incontinence is a real demographic tailwind. A smart opponent would also note that gross margin has expanded roughly 500 basis points since 2021 and that the market has already digested the revenue step-down without a collapse in the multiple—evidence the narrative of a defensive dividend compounder is still intact. I weigh those points as reasons the downside may be cushioned near the mid-$90s rather than as reasons the stock is cheap today; paying a defensive premium for negative free-cash-flow growth and unresolved volume pressure is still a rich entry.

I would flip toward fair value or modest undervaluation if the next three quarters show organic sales growth at or above 2% on the new base, free cash flow re-accelerating through $2B, and net margins holding above 12% without one-off help. Sustained volume declines, another leg down in FCF, or a dividend coverage ratio that forces a cut would confirm the overvaluation and push fair value closer to the low $80s.

Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Each AI above independently stated a direction (undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued) and how strongly it believes it (conviction, 0–5). We combine those into a Bull-Bear Index on a 0–10 scale: 5 is neutral, 10 is maximum bullish (undervalued at full conviction), 0 is maximum bearish. We compute the score ourselves with the same arithmetic for every seat — the models never grade their own bullishness — so the three are directly comparable. Δ shows how far each seat sits from the panel average of 1.3; a large Δ marks the dissenting voice, usually the one worth reading.
Claude claude-opus-4-7 2.0
overvalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +0.7 vs panel · self: 4.0
GPT gpt-5.4 1.0
overvalued · conviction 4/5 · Δ -0.3 vs panel · self: 3.0
Grok grok-4.5 1.0
overvalued · conviction 4/5 · Δ -0.3 vs panel · self: 3.0
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-08-24 05:59:12
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality - wait for a dip (mid-$80s) 7/10
KMB is a clean but slowing staple trading ~10-17% above fair value into a headwind tape - a wait-for-the-dip name, not a buy here.
The cruxWhether the 2025 -18% revenue drop is a clean divestiture reset or the start of organic erosion - that single fact separates a high-$80s buy from a value trap.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from KMB's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionStable Share Count
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The four lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+27
Solid
edge √Σ 106 · risk √Σ 78 · conf 7/10

Kimberly-Clark reads as a classic mature earner: gross margin expanded from 30.8% in 2021 to 36.0% in 2025, operating margin sits in the 13-16% band, and free cash flow has averaged roughly $2B/yr with OCF/NI of 1.51x and negative accruals (-5.7% of assets) - all hallmarks of real earnings. Beneish M of -2.55 and Altman Z of 3.48 corroborate: no mechanical manipulation signals, safe-zone solvency. Capital return discipline is intact: diluted shares actually shrank slightly (-0.4% CAGR), SBC is a modest 0.9% of revenue, and buyback covers SBC 3x over. The concern is the trajectory. Revenue dropped from $20.06B in 2024 to $16.45B in 2025 - an 18% decline that the modules gloss over; whether this reflects divestiture (likely, given the Kenvue-style portfolio reshaping in the sector) or genuine demand loss is decisive for the quality read and needs verification. Net income also fell from $2.55B to $2.02B and FCF from $2.51B to $1.64B. Liquidity is thin for a company this size: $688M cash against $694M short-term debt and net debt position, so the balance sheet is a constraint rather than a cushion. Insider tape is neutral-to-slightly-negative: three small sales ($690K), zero open-market buys, mostly routine option-exercise and tax-withholding activity. Nothing alarming, nothing encouraging. Overall a durable staples franchise with expanding gross margin and clean accounting, but not a fortress - leverage and a sharp revenue step-down keep it out of the top tier.

Strengths 4
m60
Clean earnings quality
OCF/NI 1.51x, accruals -5.7% of assets, Beneish M -2.55, Altman Z 3.48 - mechanical checks show no manipulation and safe solvency.
m55
Gross margin expansion
GM improved from 30.8% (2021) to 36.0% (2025), a 520bp gain suggesting pricing power and/or mix improvement in a mature category.
m50
Per-share discipline
Diluted shares fell from 338.8M to 333.2M (-0.4% CAGR); buybacks 3x SBC; per-share value not being eroded.
m45
Consistent FCF generation
FCF of $1.6B-$2.8B every year 2021-2025; self-funding without external capital dependence.
Concerns 4
m60
Sharp revenue contraction in 2025
Revenue fell from $20.06B (2024) to $16.45B (2025), -18%. Net income -21%, FCF -35%. Cause (divestiture vs organic weakness) is not disclosed in the data and materially changes the quality read.
m40
Thin liquidity vs near-term debt
Only $688M cash vs $694M short-term debt; net debt position; balance sheet offers no cushion for shocks.
m25
Operating margin volatility
OpM swung from 11.5% (2023) to 16.0% (2024) back to 14.3% (2025) - restructuring/one-timers likely, not a smooth compounder profile.
m15
Mildly negative insider tape
Three insider sales totaling $690K, zero open-market buys in last 12 months; not alarming but no conviction signal.
This is a well-run mature staples business, not a fortress. The earnings are real - the accruals, OCF/NI, and Beneish signals all corroborate - and management has been disciplined about not diluting owners. Gross margin expansion of 500+bp over five years is genuinely impressive in this category. But I can't ignore an 18% revenue drop in the most recent year that the modules didn't flag; that either reflects a major portfolio action (which would be fine and possibly clarifying) or real demand erosion (which would be a bigger concern). Combined with a levered balance sheet where short-term debt exceeds cash, I'd land on Solid - a B+ business, not an A. Nothing about the accounting worries me; the trajectory question does.
Verify before trusting this (6)
  • Whether the 2025 revenue drop from $20.06B to $16.45B reflects a divestiture (e.g., personal protective, tissue segment sale, spin) or organic volume/price decline
  • Total debt load and maturity schedule - short-term debt exceeds cash, so refinancing terms matter
  • Segment-level organic growth rates ex-FX and ex-divestiture to see if underlying demand is stable
  • Any restructuring charges inflating 2024 operating margin or depressing 2025 results
  • Pension/OPEB obligations, common for a 150-year-old industrial staples company
  • Customer concentration with mass retailers (Walmart, Costco) which pressures pricing
Valuation / Mispricing
-66
Rich
edge √Σ 25 · risk √Σ 104 · conf 7/10
Price $109.31 vs deserved ~$91-98, roughly 10-17% overpriced - no margin of safety. attractive below $88.00

The composite fair value of $98.32 sits ~10% below the $109.31 price, and the signal-adjusted FV of $91.06 implies ~17% downside. The three methods bracket the debate: DCF at $108.33 essentially matches the tape (and likely embeds generous terminal assumptions for a business that just printed an 18% revenue drop), anchored P/E at $98.66 says the multiple is stretched vs history, and the EPV floor at $77.96 says if growth stalls the deserved price is meaningfully lower. Earnings quality is genuinely high, which supports the deserved value, but it does not turn a full price into a cheap one. The Company-Quality lens grades this a Solid, not a fortress, staples name with a leveraged balance sheet and a shaky top line. That argues against paying a premium multiple. The market is treating KMB as a defensive bond-proxy compounder; the price already reflects that view. To justify $109 you need durable low-single-digit revenue growth to resume, margin gains to hold, and no multiple compression - a plausible but hardly heroic set that leaves no margin of safety. Net: this is not overvalued in a dangerous way, but it is not cheap. Fair-to-slightly-rich is the honest read.

Cheap signals 1
m25
High earnings quality supports the DCF read
Clean accruals and OCF/NI mean the $108.33 DCF is on real cash, keeping the composite from drifting lower and putting a soft ceiling on how rich this really is.
Rich / priced-in 4
m55
Signal-adjusted FV implies -17%
Signal-adjusted fair value of $91.06 sits 17% below the $109.31 price; even the unadjusted composite $98.32 is ~10% below.
m50
Anchored P/E says multiple stretched
Anchored-PE fair value of $98.66 implies today's multiple is above the historical anchor - you are paying up for stability.
m60
EPV floor near $78 shows downside if growth fades
The no-growth EPV floor of $77.96 is ~29% below price. If the recent revenue decline persists, deserved value collapses toward this floor.
m40
Priced as a fortress, graded as Solid
Quality lens flagged a leveraged balance sheet and an 18% revenue drop; that profile does not merit a premium-to-fair multiple.
I don't see a mispricing to exploit here. At $109 you're paying roughly full freight for a Solid, not exceptional, staples business - composite FV around $98, signal-adjusted $91, EPV floor $78. The earnings are clean, which is nice, but the top-line wobble and leverage argue against paying up. I'd want it in the high-$80s before this becomes an interesting risk/reward; today it's a hold-if-you-own-it, not a buy.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Whether the 18% revenue drop reflects a divestiture/restructuring vs organic decline - materially changes DCF terminal assumptions
  • Forward organic growth and pricing guidance in the next print
  • Net debt trajectory and interest coverage vs the leveraged balance sheet flag
  • Private-label share trends in tissue and diapers
General Sentiment
-48
Headwind
tail √Σ 43 · head √Σ 96 · conf 6/10

KMB sits in an awkward sentiment spot: the tape is mildly risk-on (+32) which is exactly the regime where defensive compounders get faded as capital rotates to higher-beta stories. With a beta of 0.28, KMB neither participates in the rally nor gets crushed by volatility, but the relative-performance drag is real and visible in the -18% recent move against a -10% longer trend. The 'defensive premium' narrative that justified paying above DCF is quietly unwinding as investors question why they should hold a low-growth staple when risk assets are working. Analyst tone around staples has broadly been cautious on margin compression from input costs, freight, and private-label share gains, which reinforces the de-rating pressure. News flow is thin and generic - KMB shows up only in yield/dividend listicles, which is low-quality sentiment support: it attracts income buyers but signals the stock has become a coupon rather than a story. That is a durable but LOW-intensity tailwind (dividend aristocrat bid) fighting a stronger headwind (defensive multiple compression in a risk-on regime with rates at 4.69%). Net: modest but persistent headwind, muted by low beta.

Tailwinds 2
m35
Dividend-income narrative provides floor
News flow is dominated by income/dividend-portfolio articles citing aristocrats like KMB. A steady income-buyer bid exists but is slow-moving and won't drive a re-rating.
m25
Low beta mutes macro damage
Beta of 0.28 means any risk-off shock barely transmits. If the tape flips to stress, KMB outperforms on a relative basis - a latent option, not an active tailwind today.
Headwinds 4
m55
Defensive premium unwinding in risk-on tape
Risk-on regimes punish steady-compounder staples via rotation, not drawdown. KMB's -18% recent slide vs a benign tape is the market repricing the certainty premium lower.
m50
Rates at 4.69% pressure bond-proxy multiple
Staples with dividend-yield appeal compete directly with the long end. Elevated 10y yields keep a lid on any multiple re-expansion and cap the defensive bid.
m45
Narrative is 'safe and boring' - no catalyst
The story is durable but low-intensity with zero cult factor. In a tape rewarding narrative and beta, KMB has nothing to attract marginal flows - it drifts.
m40
Momentum broken
Recent -18% vs -10.3% long-term CAGR shows accelerating downside. Trend-followers and momentum screens are net sellers, and the tape is not offering support.
The pressure on KMB is a slow, grinding headwind rather than a dramatic one. The defensive-compounder narrative is intact but out of favor in a risk-on tape with rates elevated, so multiple support is eroding and momentum has broken decisively lower. The only real tailwinds are structural (income-buyer bid, low beta) and slow-moving. I read this as a persistent but ordinary headwind - not a collapse, just an unloved name in an unloved cohort. If the tape flips to stress this reverses fast, but that's a bet on the regime, not on KMB.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Whether VIX spikes or regime flips to risk-off - would immediately re-bid defensives including KMB
  • Analyst target revisions post next earnings - watch for capitulation cuts that mark a sentiment bottom
  • Private-label share data and input-cost commentary that could either validate the bear narrative or break it
  • Sector rotation signals - staples relative strength vs SPX as a real-time gauge of the defensive-premium unwind
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
Growth Outlook
-8
Stalling
edge √Σ 85 · risk √Σ 94 · conf 7/10

The world KMB sells into is stable in need and stingy in wallet. Hygiene consumption doesn't cycle, but the consumer's willingness to pay for branded absorbency does, and that is where private label has been taking units. Macro headwinds with a 10y at 4.69 matter less for demand than for the cost of carrying a reshaped, potentially levered balance sheet. Input and freight inflation plus tariff exposure keep the industry's margin curve pointed down, which means KMB's growth story is a self-help story: fewer SKUs, fewer geographies, more productivity. That can hold earnings power flat-to-slightly-up for years, but it cannot manufacture volume growth. The structural question is whether premium mix in adult care and skin health outruns unit decay in baby and tissue — currently close to a draw.

Growth drivers 4
m47
Adult incontinence / aging demographics
Depend and adult-care adjacencies are the one sub-category with genuine secular volume tailwind in KMB's retained portfolio; demographics compound independently of the economic cycle and support mix-led revenue even when tissue and diaper units are flat.
m51
Cost/productivity transformation feeding EPS
The estimate record shows five straight quarters of meeting-or-beating EPS (+3%, +55% on a small base, +2%, +5%), consistent with supply-chain and overhead savings converting flat volumes into earnings. Earnings CAGR of +7.0% against a -10.3% revenue CAGR is the fingerprint of self-help, not demand.
m41
Inelastic, replenishment-cycle demand with brand pricing
Kleenex/Huggies/Scott sit in non-deferrable purchase categories; KMB has demonstrated ability to hold price/mix. This is what makes 'Holding' rather than 'Shrinking' the structural default once divestiture optics lap.
m28
Simplified, higher-margin retained portfolio
Divesting lower-margin international tissue/professional concentrates the company on North America personal care, where margin structure and share are strongest — a smaller base that can grow at or slightly above category.
Growth risks 5
m54
Private-label and value trade-down
Tissue and diapers are the two most private-label-penetrable shelves in household products; a value-seeking consumer pressures volume and forces promotional spend, capping realized price/mix even when list pricing holds.
m48
Industry-wide margin compression
Landscape shows -2.5pp operating margin erosion across the industry over three years alongside only 2.1% industry revenue CAGR — pulp, resin, freight and tariff exposure mean cost savings are partly a treadmill, not incremental earnings.
m39
Baby-care birth-rate drag
Huggies' addressable unit base shrinks with declining births in developed markets; structural unit decline must be offset by premiumization every year, an increasingly thin lever.
m37
Portfolio actions removed the growth end of the business
Exiting international/emerging-market exposure removes the faster-growing half of the demand pool; the retained business is more defensive but structurally lower-growth. Any large offsetting acquisition adds integration and leverage execution risk before it adds growth.
m26
Reported-revenue optics stay negative near term
Recent revenue YoY of -18% and earnings YoY of -20.6% keep headline comparisons ugly until the divestiture laps; genuine organic softness is hard to distinguish from portfolio math in the interim.
vs expectations: ~6m inline · 1y inline · 2-3y above
The forward growth verdict — is the business itself likely to grow (next 2 quarters / year 1 / years 2–3), judged against its category and against printed expectations. The full horizon ladder + creme renders on the Growth Outlook card above. Not a call on the price (Valuation owns that) or the tape (Sentiment owns that).
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Lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure), and Growth Outlook (the forward growth verdict). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Price Prediction
About flat -4.7% v0.6.0 View full prediction →

When we made this prediction on Aug 24, 2026, KMB was $110.72. We expect it to be $105.50 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $88.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 24, 2026.

Price when predicted$110.72
Our estimate for Feb 2027$105.50-4.7%
Great value below$88.00
Price history shown (6 Months)

Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.

Post-Report Due Diligence NOTES
The report is written. This is what its valuation stands on.
Analyzed Oct 7, 2026 · 02:01 today
Read epv-floor ext-gem-composite anchored-pe · FY income statement, balance sheet
1 finding · $0, re-derived on each view

Evidence for a closer look, not a verdict — no score or designation on this page has been changed by it. Items marked material are ones where a conclusion above moves to the other side of the price.

anchored-pe — the "fair value below price" reading turns on 2 inputs NOTE found by sensitivity, not by rule
Published $92.87 vs price $109.31. Nudging `trailing_eps` (up 25%), `adjusted_pe` (up 25%) moves the fair value to the other side of the price. This does not say those inputs are wrong — it says they are where to look first.
trailing_eps flips up 25% adjusted_pe flips up 25%
Price at analysis $109.31. This is where an investigation should start — it is not where one ends. Nothing here was checked against the filings, the tape, or the news; that is the investigator's job.
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My Notes personal — only you see this
v1.1.760 · f4b58a28 · 2026-10-07 20:07:48