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AGING Analysis Report
Sep 23, 2026
14 days ago · 100% complete
For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page

What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock (CRWV) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.

Our current read (analysis of 2026-10-08): Designation Low · Gem Score -75 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality -73 · Value -77 · Sentiment 23 (timing only, not weighted)

Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable reference-name attribute you can cite):

  • profile-header / price-overview — company profile, live quote, market cap
  • extended-analysis — the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memo
  • future-predictions — our forward price-band predictions
  • market-narrative / ai-findings / gpt-critique — narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)
  • Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers): price-history, income-trend, key-metrics, financials (statement tables), insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.

More for machine readers: site briefing at /llms.txt · any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER · raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds); every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.

CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock

CRWV NASDAQ
Technology · Software - Infrastructure
Livingston, NJ 07039, United States coreweave.com Updated Sep 23, 4:42pm
Price
$86.87
Market Cap
$47.9B
Employees
2,189
Beta
—
Avg Volume
30,529,248
CEO
Mr. Michael N. Intrator

CoreWeave Inc. Class A Common Stock represents ownership in CoreWeave, a cloud infrastructure technology company focused on delivering computing resources for artificial intelligence workloads. The company provides GPU-accelerated and CPU-based infrastructure, storage, networking, and managed software services through its CoreWeave Cloud platform. Its offerings are designed to support AI model training and inference, as well as adjacent workloads such as machine learning, visual effects rendering, pixel streaming, and batch processing. CoreWeave also serves organizations that need specialized high-performance computing, including enterprises and AI developers building and operating demanding applications. Headquartered in Livingston, New Jersey, and founded in 2017, CoreWeave plays a growing role in the market for purpose-built AI cloud infrastructure and related developer tools.

Runs with full report Generated: Aug 24, 2026 4:35am
Price Overview
Price at report time
$86.87
as of Sep 23, 4:43pm (14d ago)
Change · Sep 23
+0.11 (+0.13%)
Day Range
$86.55 – $90.36
52-Week Range
$60.55 – $153.20
50-Day MA
$85.21
200-Day MA
$92.17
Volume
29,406,548.00
Right now · live
Log in to get the live feed
Members see the real-time price and the move since this report (over 14d).
Share Structure
Outstanding 551,000,000.00
Float 328,042,940.00
Free Float 59.5%
Normal free float — 59.5% of shares trade freely, ~40.5% held by insiders/institutions
Healthy float typical of established companies. Good liquidity for entering and exiting positions without major price impact.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Sep 23, 2026 5:07pm (14d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Sep 23, 2026 4:44pm (14d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics TTM · through Jun 30, 2026
TD Twelve Data statement HEX SEC filing
P/E · trailing (TTM) (Price per dollar of earnings over the past year — not a run-rate or forward P/E)
HEX
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
-23.67
Stock Price: $86.87
EPS (Diluted): -3.67
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
HEX
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
9.08
Stock Price: $86.87
Total Equity: $5.02B
Shares: 525,295,333
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
HEX
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
8.58
Market Cap: $47.91B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $5.52B
EBITDA: $3.76B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
HEX
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$32.3B
Market Cap: $47.91B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $5.52B
P/S Ratio (Price per dollar of revenue)
HEX
Stock Price / Revenue Per Share
6.01
Stock Price: $86.87
Revenue: $7.59B
Shares: 525,295,333
EV/Sales (Total value vs revenue — works when P/E can't)
CALC
4.25
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
HEX
Gross Profit / Revenue
67.4%
Gross Profit: $5.12B
Revenue: $7.59B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
HEX
Operating Income / Revenue
-3.0%
Operating Income: -$231.00M
Revenue: $7.59B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
HEX
Net Income / Revenue
-25.4%
Net Income: -$1.93B
Revenue: $7.59B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
HEX
Net Income / Total Equity
-43.6%
Net Income: -$1.93B
Total Equity: $5.02B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
HEX
NOPAT / Invested Capital
46.3%
Operating Income: -$231.00M
Tax Rate: -0.2%
Equity: $5.02B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $5.52B
Zero debt — invested capital = equity minus cash (very efficient)
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
HEX
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
0.46
Current Assets: $9.52B
Current Liabilities: $20.92B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
HEX
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.00
Short-Term Debt: $0.00
Long-Term Debt: $0.00
Total Debt: $0.00
Total Equity: $5.02B
Zero debt — this company carries no debt obligations. Strongest possible score.
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
HEX
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$14.45
Revenue: $7.59B
Shares: 525,295,333
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
HEX
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$9.56
Total Equity: $5.02B
Shares: 525,295,333
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
HEX
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$-25.99
Operating CF: $6.91B
CapEx: -$20.57B
Shares: 525,295,333
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
TD
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
—
Last Dividend: $0.00
Stock Price: $86.87
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
HEX
Dividends Paid / Net Income
—
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: -$1.93B
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Sep 23, 2026 4:51pm
Compares CRWV against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Sep 23, 2026 4:44pm (14d ago)
Metric 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $229.0M $1.9B $5.1B
Cost of Revenue $69.0M $493.0M $1.5B
Gross Profit $160.0M $1.4B $3.7B
Operating Expenses $174.0M $1.1B $3.7B
Operating Income -$14.0M $324.0M -$46.0M
Net Income -$594.0M -$863.0M -$1.2B
EBITDA $89.0M $1.2B $2.4B
EPS $-3.09 $-4.30 $-2.75
EPS (Diluted) $-3.09 $-4.30 $-2.81
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Sep 23, 2026 4:51pm (14d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents — $217.0M $1.4B $3.1B
Total Current Assets — — $1.9B $7.5B
Total Assets — — $17.8B $49.3B
Current Liabilities — — $5.0B $16.4B
Long-Term Debt — — $5.5B $14.9B
Total Liabilities — — $16.5B $46.0B
Total Equity -$11.0M -$597.0M $1.3B $3.3B
Retained Earnings — — -$1.5B -$2.6B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Sep 23, 2026 5:07pm (14d ago)
Metric 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $1.8B $2.7B $3.1B
Capital Expenditure -$2.9B -$8.7B -$10.3B
Free Cash Flow -$1.1B -$6.0B -$7.3B
Acquisitions (net) $0 $0 -$108.0M
Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) $1.4B $6.4B $8.4B
Dividends Paid — — —
Stock Buybacks — — —
Net Change in Cash $473.0M $1.6B $2.1B
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Sep 23, 2026 4:44pm (14d ago)
Metric 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +736.2% +167.9%
Gross Profit Growth +788.8% +158.6%
Operating Income Growth +2,414.3% -114.2%
Net Income Growth -45.3% -35.2%
EBITDA Growth +1,233.7% +102.9%
0Company Classification 1Industry Landscape 2Company Momentum 3Forward Projection 4aDCF Valuation 4bEarnings Power Value 4cAnchored PE 4dReverse DCF 4eRevenue-Based DCF 4fAnchored P/S 4gScenario Analysis 4hDividend Discount Model 4iBook Value Analysis 4jInsider Activity 4fCash Flow Quality 4gDebt Maturity Risk 4hMacro Environment 4iSector Intelligence 4jRevenue Confidence 4kSensitivity Analysis 4lSector Demand Cycle 5AI Investigation 5bThesis Evaluation 6Valuation Synthesis
computed not applicable 17 computed · 7 not applicable
Risk : Reward — upside vs downside from this company's own quarters
Computed 2026-10-08 02:02
-1.7 : 1 +1σ upside vs −1σ downside, from this company's own quarterly history
A +1σ run of quarters pays -169%; a −1σ run costs 100%. Ratio -1.7:1 (μ 152.7%, σ 98.5% , 6 pairs).
Older method (repeat-worst-quarter): 3.0 : 1
CaseGrowthMarginFair valuevs price ($86.87)
Bull — recovery +150% 11.5% $345.08 +297%
Base — stabilizes +100% 10.0% $111.53 +28%
Bear — keeps slipping +50% 8.5% $25.82 -70%
Stress — last quarter repeats +134% -25.4% $0.00 -100%
Upside — a +1σ run of quarters (v2) +50% -12.7% $-59.70 -169%
Stress — a −1σ run of quarters (v2) +50% -25.4% $0.00 -100%
The next quarters keep the trajectory of the worst recent matched quarter (ending 2025-09-30) — growth stays at 133.7% and margins bend by the same profit-vs-revenue ratio (×0.50). Stress is a trajectory, not a prediction — it answers "what if the ship's current heading simply continues," which history says is the case to respect.
Why this is appearing: this company files quarterly, so its recent trajectory could be measured rather than assumed — the engine matched Jun 2026, Mar 2026 against the same quarters one year earlier and found revenue +112.1% year-over-year. That measured heading is what the stress case extends forward. Of those, the stress case extends the worst matched quarter — the one ending Sep 30, 2025 (revenue +133.7%, operating income -55.7% YoY) — not the average. Data measured through Jun 30, 2026 — this card recalculates automatically when the next quarterly filing is ingested. Companies without quarterly filings (many foreign listings) never show this card: with no measured trajectory, there is nothing honest to repeat.
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for CRWV — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Growth Outlook
Analyzed 2026-09-23 17:36

The question every valuation on this page silently assumes: is this company likely to grow? Judged forward — the business, its category, the world — against what's already printed.

Growing Revenue is still compounding at triple-digit rates off a contracted AI-infrastructure backlog, but the growth rate is mechanically decaying and the structural question is whether capital-intensive GPU capacity converts into durable earnings power rather than just top-line. conf 6/10
Share gain Category growing · Industry revenue is compounding ~15% (3y CAGR 15.4%) with margins expanding, while CoreWeave grew ~168% YoY — roughly 10x the category. The company is not riding the tide; it is capturing a new, faster sub-category (dedicated AI compute) that is being carved out of general infrastructure spend.
Next 2 quarters
Growing
Contracted capacity coming online plus easy comparisons keep revenue growth very high in absolute terms; delivery schedules, not demand, set the number. EPS remains volatile and can swing negative on depreciation and interest, as the -1.14 print showed.
≈ inline with expectations
Year 1
Growing
Full-year revenue should still post very large growth as multiple new sites energize, but the rate decays off the base. Backlog coverage makes the top line the high-confidence part; margins and cash burn are the uncertain part.
≈ inline with expectations
Years 2–3
Growing
Absolute revenue likely keeps rising as inference demand broadens the customer base, but the growth RATE steps down sharply and earnings power is hostage to GPU-hour pricing, depreciation schedules and refinancing. Structural durability is unproven, not broken.
↓ below expectations
The creme: each rung's call measured against what's already printed (vs analyst estimates · vs guidance / FY consensus · vs price-implied growth) — expectations in print are already in the price, so only the variant margin can pay. Hover a rung's chip for the margin read.
Growth drivers
81 Contracted backlog converting to revenue — +112% matched-quarter YoY revenue with a business model where revenue is largely pre-sold under multi-year capacity contracts; near-term prints are more a function of datacenter delivery schedules than of demand discovery. That makes the next several quarters unusually visible for a company this young.
68 Share gain versus a 14-15% category — Landscape data shows recent company YoY of ~168% against industry ~14.4% — a +153pp gap. CoreWeave is absorbing AI capex that would otherwise flow to general-purpose cloud, so it grows independent of the broader infrastructure-software slowdown.
58 Capacity, not demand, is the binding constraint — Growth is gated by power, shells and GPU delivery. As long as contracted capacity comes online, revenue follows regardless of macro softness — a rare position where the growth mechanism is supply-side and schedulable.
34 Earnings surprise cadence — Four straight prints beating or roughly meeting EPS estimates (-1.14 vs -1.47, 1.35 vs 1.19, 1.22 vs 1.11), suggesting delivery is tracking or ahead of modeled ramp despite volatile GAAP optics from depreciation and financing costs.
Growth risks
72 Customer concentration and counterparty dependence — A handful of very large AI labs and hyperscaler-adjacent buyers represent the bulk of contracted revenue. A single renegotiation, deferral or in-sourcing decision resets the growth curve in a way no operating lever can offset.
65 Capital intensity and depreciation drag — Revenue growth is bought with debt-funded GPU fleets on short useful lives. Net income and FCF CAGR are unreported/negative in the record; triple-digit revenue growth can coexist with persistently negative GAAP earnings and heavy refinancing needs at a 4.96% 10-year.
56 Mechanical deceleration — Base effects alone take growth from ~112% toward a far lower number within 18-24 months; the quarterly trend is already flagged 'decelerating.' The direction of the growth RATE is down even as absolute revenue climbs.
49 Hyperscaler and neocloud price competition — AWS/Azure/GCP plus a widening field of GPU clouds can undercut on bundled pricing; if GPU-hour rates compress faster than utilization improves, revenue growth outruns unit economics and years 2-3 earnings power erodes.
42 AI capex cycle timing — Sector demand cycle reads 'slowdown' (score -1). If frontier-model training budgets plateau before inference demand scales into the same fleets, contracted renewals arrive into a softer market.
The world is mid-buildout on AI compute: capex commitments from model labs and enterprises are still rising, and physical constraints (power, shells, accelerators) mean demand exceeds deliverable supply today. That favors specialized operators who secured capacity early. The countervailing forces are financial rather than demand-side — a 4.96% long rate with a nearly flat curve makes debt-funded fleet expansion expensive, and the broader infrastructure-software cycle is flagged as slowing. The honest structural uncertainty is whether AI compute settles into a utility with thin, contract-driven spreads or retains scarcity pricing. CoreWeave's direction over the next year is largely pre-determined by signed contracts and delivery schedules; beyond that, it depends on renewal pricing and whether inference workloads absorb depreciating training fleets.
Growth position composite -4
ShrinkingStallingHoldingGrowingAccelerating
70Next 2 quarters · Growing
70Year 1 · Growing
70Years 2–3 · Growing
-4Composite (−100…+100)
A research prediction, not advice. Forward-graded: each rung is scored against the prints that follow it. Not an input to the GEM designation — track record first.
Claude Reading
Independent analyst synthesis · claude-opus-4-7 · generated 2026-09-23 17:06:57
Verdict Fairly valued around $85 with a bimodal outcome distribution — accelerating revenue justifies the ~3.5x forward EV/S, but 6.5x leverage and perpetual refinancing need make this un-sizable; own only as a small position or via defined-risk options.

The raw quarterly cadence is the single most important thing in this file and it cuts against the "decelerating" tag in the secondary signals: revenue went $982M → $1.21B → $1.36B → $1.57B → $2.08B → $2.58B across the last six quarters — that's ~23% sequential in the most recent print and roughly 163% YoY on Q2'26. TTM revenue is now ~$7.59B, not the $5.13B annual figure the multiples are anchored to, meaning the true forward EV/S is closer to ~3.5x (EV ~$66B against $47.9B cap plus $21.6B debt less $3.1B cash) rather than the 6.0x ps_ratio printed. That's not a "priced for perfection" multiple on the tape; that's a rounding error for an infrastructure business growing triple-digits — IF the unit economics are real. Gross margin at 67% is genuinely high, but it's a lease-accounting artifact: $10.3B of capex against $3.06B operating cash flow means depreciation is going to strangle GAAP margins for years. Operating margin already flipped from +16.9% in FY24 to -0.9% in FY25 as the depreciation wave lands.

Where I part company with the synthesis: the "priced for perfection" verdict and the -13 thesis score both underweight how quickly the revenue base has re-based. Six quarters ago CRWV was a $4B run-rate company; today it's north of $10B run-rate. Even if you haircut FY27 revenue to $14B (well below the current exit trajectory) and assign a distressed 4x EV/S, you get to an EV of $56B — roughly today's EV. That's the "the story is already priced in" case, and it's plausible. But the bear case requires believing hyperscaler competition compresses pricing before CRWV's contracted backlog (widely reported OpenAI/Microsoft take-or-pay structure) rolls off. The contracts are the moat here, not the architecture, and the models barely mention them.

What the contrarian should hammer: the balance sheet is genuinely alarming and no one is quantifying it sharply enough. $21.6B debt against $3.34B equity is 6.5x leverage; current ratio 0.46 means working capital is negative; FY25 FCF was -$7.25B and 2026 capex will likely exceed that. This company must tap capital markets continuously — every quarter is a refinancing event. If AI capex sentiment cracks even modestly (a single hyperscaler capex guide-down, a Nvidia supply loosening headline), the debt spreads blow out and equity gets crushed regardless of revenue trajectory. The insider activity list is uninterpretable as printed ("E-ExpireShort" with no filer names and 2026-09-18 dates that postdate the analysis window suggests option expirations, not discretionary sells) — the "Unusual Selling Activity" tag is doing more work than the underlying data supports. I'd downgrade that signal's weight. The pre-flight AI note that CEO/insiders "are selling for good reason" is not defensible from this data.

My verdict: I dissent partially from the synthesis. This is not "priced for perfection" at ~3.5x forward EV/S with 100%+ growth and take-or-pay contracts — the multiple is defensible for the growth. But it's also not undervalued, because the leverage and refinancing risk create a fat left tail that a P/S multiple doesn't capture. Fair value is roughly where it trades, with an unusually wide distribution: I can construct a $150 bull case (FY27 rev $18B, EV/S 5x, debt refinanced smoothly) and a $25 bear case (capex guide cut, spread blowout, dilutive equity raise) with about equal ease. That's a fairly-valued-with-huge-variance setup, not a directional bet. The synthesis got the direction roughly right but for the wrong reasons (they cited multiple compression risk; the real risk is balance sheet); the momentum model overstated deceleration (revenue is accelerating sequentially); the market-forces "neutral" is the most honest single line in the deck.

GPT Reading
Independent reading · gpt-5.4 · generated 2026-09-23 17:07:15
Verdict Overvalued at $86.87 — the revenue surge is real, but the $48B equity value assumes durable AI-infrastructure economics before CoreWeave has proven free-cash-flow viability; I’d need a materially lower entry, closer to $55-65, or clear evidence of self-funding scale.

What jumps out is the mismatch between how fast CoreWeave is scaling and how little economic proof sits underneath that scale. TTM revenue through 2026-06-30 is about $7.59 billion, up from roughly $3.52 billion in the prior TTM window, so growth is still an extraordinary 115%. Quarterly revenue also keeps climbing sequentially from $1.36 billion to $1.57 billion to $2.08 billion to $2.58 billion. On the surface that is exactly what investors want from an AI infrastructure winner. But the income statement says this is not yet a business with demonstrated operating leverage. TTM net loss is about $1.93 billion, or a -25.4% margin, and even with a strong 67.4% gross margin, TTM operating margin is still negative at about -3.0%. The story here is not “temporary losses on the way to proven profitability”; it is “massive revenue expansion that has not yet translated into reliable earnings power.”

The cash-flow and balance-sheet combination is the real issue. Operating cash flow of $3.06 billion looks powerful until you put it next to $10.31 billion of capex and -$7.25 billion of free cash flow. This is not software-like reinvestment discretion; this is hard infrastructure spend on a scale that requires constant external funding. Against that, CoreWeave carries $21.59 billion of debt, only $3.13 billion of cash, just $3.34 billion of equity, and a current ratio of 0.46. Even allowing for project-finance dynamics and the fact that depreciation trails cash capex in fast buildouts, the financing burden is enormous for a company still losing more than $600 million a quarter. At a $47.9 billion market cap and about 6.0x TTM sales, the stock is not being valued on current free cash flow, current earnings, or balance-sheet conservatism; it is being valued on the assumption that today’s capex converts into a durable, high-utilization GPU platform before competition compresses returns.

There are encouraging operating trends, but I do not think they justify the present price. Quarterly net losses are ugly, yet they did improve from -$740 million in March to -$626 million in June despite adding $500 million of revenue, which is a sign of some incremental scaling. The TTM EV/revenue multiple of roughly 4.25x and EV/EBITDA of 8.6x are not absurd if this were a more normal infrastructure company with visible normalized margins ahead. The problem is that CoreWeave is being asked to prove three things simultaneously: that demand remains strong as supply catches up, that customers are sticky enough to support returns on this capex base, and that financing risk will not dilute equity holders or impair economics. I do not see enough evidence yet. This looks less like an underappreciated compounder and more like a richly valued, balance-sheet-stretched buildout whose best-case future is already heavily capitalized into an $86.87 stock.

The best case against my skepticism is straightforward and serious. Revenue is not merely growing; it is exploding, and not from a tiny base anymore. A business going from roughly $3.5 billion to $7.6 billion of TTM revenue in one year while sustaining gross margins near 67% can plausibly be in the early innings of absorbing fixed costs and depreciation. The annual data already showed operating income of $324 million in 2024 before slipping to essentially breakeven operating results in 2025, suggesting GAAP noise, financing costs, and non-cash items may be obscuring a business with better unit economics than net income implies. If utilization on the newly deployed asset base rises faster than capex from here, the current period could end up looking like the ugliest point in the investment cycle rather than a permanent condition. On that view, 6x sales is not expensive for a company that could plausibly grow into a $12-15 billion revenue run-rate relatively quickly.

Still, I weigh those bullish points less heavily because the downside is balance-sheet-shaped, not merely multiple-shaped. A company can grow its way out of temporary losses; it is much harder to grow your way out of weak liquidity, giant debt, and structurally negative free cash flow if pricing or utilization disappoints even modestly. What would change my mind is specific proof that the buildout is maturing: two or three consecutive quarters where revenue growth stays above 70% year over year, operating margin turns clearly positive, and capex falls enough that free cash flow improves from deeply negative toward manageable levels, ideally with debt growth slowing materially. If CoreWeave can show that the June quarter’s $2.58 billion revenue level is not just bought with capital but is converting into self-funding economics, then the stock can deserve a premium. Until then, the market is paying in advance for a margin structure and moat that have not yet been earned.

Grok Reading
Independent reading · grok-4.5 · generated 2026-09-23 17:07:55
Verdict Overvalued at $86.87 — hypergrowth is real but $48B equity on $21.6B debt, –$7B FCF and unproven margins prices perfection

CoreWeave’s numbers describe a company that has converted GPU scarcity into one of the fastest revenue ramps in public-market history and is still nowhere near a finished business. Trailing-twelve-month revenue through mid-2026 sits near $7.6B ($2.58B + $2.08B + $1.57B + $1.36B), up from $5.13B for calendar 2025 and $1.92B the year before; the latest quarter alone is a $10.3B annualized run-rate and still growing just over 110% year-on-year versus the year-ago $1.21B. Gross margin holds at a robust 67%, and operating cash flow reached $3.06B in 2025, proving the installed base throws off real cash. Yet net losses remain large and sticky—$626M and $740M in the two most recent quarters, TTM net margin –25%—while free cash flow burned $7.25B against $10.3B of capex. The balance sheet that funded this build-out is the real story: $21.6B of debt against $3.13B cash and only $3.34B of equity, a current ratio of 0.45, and an equity cushion that is already thin relative to the leverage. At $86.87 and a $48B equity value (enterprise value higher once net debt is added), the market is capitalizing a still-pre-profit, hyper-levered infrastructure build as if the scarcity window and the margin structure are both durable.

What stands out is the mismatch between the growth narrative and the financial architecture. Revenue confidence is already flagged as decelerating; absolute dollar losses have widened even as scale improved; and the entire equity story sits on top of a capital structure that leaves almost no room for a refinancing hiccup, a utilization miss, or a hyperscaler price war. EV/Revenue around 4.3x and EV/EBITDA 8.6x look deceptively tame only because the market is already embedding a multi-year path to cloud-like margins on a much larger revenue base. The 67% gross margin is the single strongest fundamental exhibit—it shows customers will pay a premium for dedicated GPU capacity today—but operating margin is still negative and the conversion of that gross profit into free cash flow has not begun. Insider prints are a wall of short-dated option expirations and sales; whether mechanical or discretionary, they do not signal confidence that the $87 price is cheap. The quantitative models that label this “priced for perfection” and score the thesis slightly negative are, on this read, correctly reading the data rather than fighting it: the growth is real, the moat and the capital structure are not yet proven.

The strongest case against this skepticism is straightforward and must be weighed. Demand is not fabricated—quarterly revenue has marched from $584M to $2.58B in eight quarters with no collapse in gross margin, operating cash flow is already multi-billion, and a purpose-built GPU cloud can retain pricing power longer than a pure commodity reseller if software, networking, and power contracts create switching costs. If CoreWeave is already locking multi-year take-or-pay capacity with creditworthy counterparties, the $21.6B debt is simply the construction loan for an asset that will throw off high-teens free-cash-flow margins once the build cycle peaks. On that view, a $10B-plus revenue run-rate at 40%+ EBITDA margins justifies far more than $48B of equity, and today’s multiple is the entry point before the profitability inflection becomes obvious in the reported numbers. I weigh that case second because the briefing supplies no backlog disclosure, no customer-concentration metrics, and no evidence that utilization or pricing is holding as supply normalizes; the same data set that shows 110% growth also shows a current ratio below 0.5 and equity that is a small fraction of debt. Until the income statement and the cash-flow statement confirm that the gross-margin advantage survives competition, the bull case remains a claim on future scarcity rather than a demonstrated franchise.

I would reverse to constructive on a clear sequence: two consecutive quarters of sequential operating-margin expansion toward breakeven while revenue growth stays above 40%, a visible peak and decline in quarterly capex that turns free cash flow less negative, and either a material debt pay-down or a successful long-dated refinancing that removes near-term maturity risk. Evidence of diversified, non-startup revenue (hyperscaler overflow alone is not enough) or gross margin holding above 60% as GPU supply eases would also move the needle. Absent those prints, the stock at $87 is a leveraged call option on continued AI capacity shortage, not a cash-flow compounder.

Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Each AI above independently stated a direction (undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued) and how strongly it believes it (conviction, 0–5). We combine those into a Bull-Bear Index on a 0–10 scale: 5 is neutral, 10 is maximum bullish (undervalued at full conviction), 0 is maximum bearish. We compute the score ourselves with the same arithmetic for every seat — the models never grade their own bullishness — so the three are directly comparable. Δ shows how far each seat sits from the panel average of 2.3; a large Δ marks the dissenting voice, usually the one worth reading.
Claude claude-opus-4-7 5.0
fairly valued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +2.7 vs panel · self: 5.0
GPT gpt-5.4 1.0
overvalued · conviction 4/5 · Δ -1.3 vs panel · self: 3.0
Grok grok-4.5 1.0
overvalued · conviction 4/5 · Δ -1.3 vs panel · self: 3.0
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-09-23 17:39:37
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Rich and Fragile — pass, set alerts 8/10
Explosive AI-infra growth priced for perfection on a distress-zone balance sheet — pass at $86.87, revisit in the mid-$50s.
The cruxWhether CoreWeave can self-fund the GPU capex ramp before dilution and refinancing risk eat the equity — everything else is narrative.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from CRWV's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwayCritical Runway
DilutionHeavy Dilution
Earnings QualityAdequate / Mixed
The four lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
-73
Fragile
edge √Σ 65 · risk √Σ 157 · conf 8/10

CoreWeave is growing revenue explosively ($229M in 2023 to $7.59B TTM, roughly a 33x jump in three years, with GM% around 67-74%), but the business model is a capital furnace: FCF is -$13.66B TTM against just $5.54B of liquid cash, implying under 2 quarters of runway before more financing is required. Operating margin oscillated from -6.1% to +6.3% back to -3.0%, and net loss widened to -$1.93B. OCF/NI at -2.43x and Altman Z of 0.24 place the balance sheet squarely in the distress zone, consistent with an asset-heavy GPU cloud operator financing datacenters with debt and equity.

Strengths 2
m55
Explosive top-line traction
Revenue scaled from $229M to $7.59B in three years, evidence of genuine demand for its AI/GPU infrastructure product.
m35
Still-high gross margins
67-74% GM% indicates unit economics at the gross level remain software-like, not commodity hosting.
Concerns 6
m90
Capex-driven cash burn vs thin runway
FCF of -$13.66B against $5.54B cash equals ~1.6 quarters of runway; the business cannot self-fund and depends on continuous debt/equity issuance.
m85
Extreme dilution
Diluted shares went 192M to 316M to 525M (65% CAGR), meaning per-share value is being materially eroded even as revenue scales.
m70
Distress-zone solvency signal
Altman Z of 0.24 with -$1.93B net income and negative operating margin flags real bankruptcy-model risk for an asset-heavy firm.
m45
Insider selling only
49 sells for $110.9M and zero buys in 12 months; no insider is putting new money in at these levels.
m40
Margin regression despite scale
Gross margin slipped from 74.5% to 67.4% and operating margin flipped back negative as revenue doubled, suggesting scale is not yet producing durable leverage.
m30
Modest liquid cushion vs burn
Cash/market cap of 11.6% and net cash equal to gross cash mask the fact that quarterly burn dwarfs the cushion.
This is a genuine AI-infrastructure growth story bolted onto a balance sheet that behaves like a leveraged project-finance vehicle. The demand signal is undeniable - going from $229M to $7.6B in revenue in three years is not fake - but the cost is a $13.7B annual cash outflow, 65%/yr share issuance, and an Altman Z that literally reads distress. Gross margins slipping while operating margin flips negative again tells me scale is not yet compounding into leverage; it is compounding into more capex. Insiders are only selling. As a business in isolation, it is fragile: solvency depends on capital markets staying open and hyperscaler contracts holding, and per-share economics are being ground down in the meantime. Not a fortress, not even mixed - it is a Shaky-to-Fragile enterprise.
Verify before trusting this (6)
  • Debt structure, maturity ladder, and covenants on datacenter/GPU financings
  • Customer concentration (Microsoft/Meta/OpenAI exposure) and contract duration/take-or-pay terms
  • Committed but undrawn credit facilities and delivery-linked financing
  • Capex schedule vs contracted revenue backlog to test whether burn is demand-matched
  • Lock-up expirations and secondary offering plans given insider selling cadence
  • Whether the Magnetar Form 4 entries reflect derivative expirations vs actual dispositions
Valuation / Mispricing
-77
Rich
edge √Σ 25 · risk √Σ 127 · conf 7/10
Price $86.87 vs a skeptical deserved value in the $50-65 range - roughly 30-40% overvalued on a quality- and dilution-adjusted basis. attractive below $55.00

The stock trades at roughly 6.3x TTM revenue of ~$7.6B for a business that just flipped operating margin negative, is bleeding $13.7B of annual cash, and is diluting shareholders at ~65% per year. Deserved value has to be discounted heavily for both earnings quality (mixed) and the Fragile quality grade (Altman Z in distress). Even generous assumptions - $20B revenue run-rate, mid-teens steady-state operating margin, and a hyperscaler-like multiple - land you near today's price, not meaningfully above it. That means the market is already paying for the bull case (platform lock-in, GPU-cloud monopoly, margin expansion with utilization) while ignoring the bear case (commodity reseller, hyperscaler price war, customer concentration, refinancing risk).

Cheap signals 1
m25
Genuine growth optionality
Revenue trajectory $229M to $7.6B in three years is real - if platform economics prove out, current price could look reasonable, but that is the bull case already embedded.
Rich / priced-in 4
m78
Priced for perfection on a fragile balance sheet
A $47.9B equity value on a business burning $13.7B/yr with operating margin turning negative requires heroic execution; any slip in utilization, pricing, or refinancing hits equity hard.
m70
Dilution destroys per-share upside
Share count growing ~65%/yr means even successful revenue scaling to $20B may not lift per-share value proportionally - the denominator is running with the numerator.
m55
Margin structure unproven
Gross margins are slipping while the bull case requires expansion; hyperscaler competition (AWS/Azure/GCP) caps pricing power and the platform-lock-in thesis is asserted, not evidenced.
m45
Earnings-quality haircut applies
Mixed earnings-quality flag combined with heavy capex/leases means reported growth overstates economic value creation; deserved multiple should compress, not expand.
I do not want to own this at $86.87. The business may be real and even important, but the price already pays for the platform-monopoly outcome while the balance sheet screams project-finance risk and dilution is eating per-share value in real time. I would need it in the mid-$50s or lower - a 35%+ drawdown - before the margin of safety compensates for the Fragile quality grade and the mixed earnings quality. Until then this is a story stock priced as if the story is settled.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Contracted backlog duration and take-or-pay terms with top customers (Microsoft concentration)
  • Unit economics per GPU-hour and utilization trends
  • Debt maturity wall and refinancing capacity given negative FCF
  • Trajectory of share count and any planned raises
  • Gross margin bridge - is the slippage mix or pricing
General Sentiment
+23
Tailwind
tail √Σ 102 · head √Σ 79 · conf 6/10

The tape is mildly risk-on (VIX 14, S&P near highs) and that matters disproportionately for CRWV: this is a high-beta, pre-profit, story-first AI-infrastructure name whose price is almost entirely narrative. A calm, risk-seeking market is exactly the environment where the platform-monopoly story gets bid. The 72-hour news slate is heavily positive - UBS initiating Buy at $120 (40% upside) as a non-consensus call, a $4.2B upsized convertible closing (a demand signal, even if dilutive), the Harell Data win, and bullish 94%-upside pieces citing the backlog. That is a lot of positive catalyst density into a name that had shed nearly half from its 52-week high, which sets up a squeeze-friendly sentiment tilt. Counterweight: Rothschild just issued a Sell on CRWV specifically (and on Nebius), Bernstein flagged the training-to-inference risk last week, and the stock has been whippy on rate/debt worries given the capex-and-convert model. Analyst tone is genuinely split, and the narrative durability is only moderate with a medium cult - meaning sentiment can flip fast on any AI-capex wobble. Net: the immediate pressure leans tailwind - fresh sell-side sponsorship, a closed financing overhang, and a risk-on tape - but it is not a dominant force, because the bear desks are visibly pushing back and macro rate sensitivity (10y ~5%) keeps a lid on the multiple.

Tailwinds 4
m62
UBS Buy initiation, non-consensus, $120 PT
A fresh, explicitly non-consensus Buy from a bulge-bracket into a beaten-down AI infra name is a high-impact sentiment event - it reopens the bull thesis for institutional buyers and gives momentum funds cover after the drawdown.
m55
$4.2B convert closed, upsized 40%
Pricing a convert $1.2B above initial size with capped calls to $199.70 signals strong demand and removes a financing overhang - a clear positive tape event for a capex-heavy name where funding risk had been a bear talking point.
m45
Risk-on tape amplifies high-beta AI infra
VIX 14 and indices near highs disproportionately help pre-profit, story-driven, high-beta names like CRWV; this is the regime in which the platform-monopoly narrative gets paid.
m40
Positive catalyst density and customer wins
Harell Data deployment, Blockfusion 15-yr lease, Nvidia Vera Rubin cluster, and Ark's $25M buy stack as narrative-reinforcing headlines within days - keeps the AI-picks-and-shovels story front of mind.
Headwinds 3
m55
Split analyst tone: Rothschild Sell, Bernstein caution
Rothschild's Sell on CRWV (paired with Neutral on IREN) and Bernstein's training-to-inference downgrade last week mean the bear desk is actively engaged - this caps upside and keeps two-way flow rather than a clean squeeze.
m45
Rate sensitivity on a capex/debt-heavy model
10y at 4.96% is a structural headwind specifically for a levered, cash-burning infra buildout; recent -6% and -4% days were tied directly to rate and debt-burden narratives, showing this name is unusually exposed.
m35
Recent momentum decelerating vs long-term
Recent 115% trailing vs 476% CAGR flags fading momentum - the parabolic phase is over, and the name is now trading on catalysts rather than trend, which limits the multiplier a risk-on tape can deliver.
Net leans tailwind, but not decisively. The immediate 72-hour flow (UBS Buy, upsized convert, customer wins, Ark buying) into a risk-on tape is the kind of setup that lifts a beaten-down high-beta AI infra name in the near term. What stops me from calling it Strong Tailwind is that the bear side is loud and credible (Rothschild Sell, Bernstein inference risk), the narrative durability is only moderate, and the name has repeatedly proven rate-sensitive on down days. Call it a real but ordinary tailwind - tradeable, not dominant, and one hawkish rate print or AI-capex scare away from flipping.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Whether more sell-side desks follow UBS with upgrades or Rothschild with downgrades in the next 2-4 weeks
  • Any AI-capex wobble from hyperscalers or Nvidia commentary that would break the picks-and-shovels narrative
  • 10y yield direction - a move back above 5.1% would reprice this name hard regardless of news
  • Post-convert share price action around the $199.70 cap and any signs of hedge unwind pressure
  • Follow-through customer wins vs concentration disclosures in the next print
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
Growth Outlook
-4
Growing
edge √Σ 125 · risk √Σ 129 · conf 6/10

The world is mid-buildout on AI compute: capex commitments from model labs and enterprises are still rising, and physical constraints (power, shells, accelerators) mean demand exceeds deliverable supply today. That favors specialized operators who secured capacity early. The countervailing forces are financial rather than demand-side — a 4.96% long rate with a nearly flat curve makes debt-funded fleet expansion expensive, and the broader infrastructure-software cycle is flagged as slowing. The honest structural uncertainty is whether AI compute settles into a utility with thin, contract-driven spreads or retains scarcity pricing. CoreWeave's direction over the next year is largely pre-determined by signed contracts and delivery schedules; beyond that, it depends on renewal pricing and whether inference workloads absorb depreciating training fleets.

Growth drivers 4
m81
Contracted backlog converting to revenue
+112% matched-quarter YoY revenue with a business model where revenue is largely pre-sold under multi-year capacity contracts; near-term prints are more a function of datacenter delivery schedules than of demand discovery. That makes the next several quarters unusually visible for a company this young.
m68
Share gain versus a 14-15% category
Landscape data shows recent company YoY of ~168% against industry ~14.4% — a +153pp gap. CoreWeave is absorbing AI capex that would otherwise flow to general-purpose cloud, so it grows independent of the broader infrastructure-software slowdown.
m58
Capacity, not demand, is the binding constraint
Growth is gated by power, shells and GPU delivery. As long as contracted capacity comes online, revenue follows regardless of macro softness — a rare position where the growth mechanism is supply-side and schedulable.
m34
Earnings surprise cadence
Four straight prints beating or roughly meeting EPS estimates (-1.14 vs -1.47, 1.35 vs 1.19, 1.22 vs 1.11), suggesting delivery is tracking or ahead of modeled ramp despite volatile GAAP optics from depreciation and financing costs.
Growth risks 5
m72
Customer concentration and counterparty dependence
A handful of very large AI labs and hyperscaler-adjacent buyers represent the bulk of contracted revenue. A single renegotiation, deferral or in-sourcing decision resets the growth curve in a way no operating lever can offset.
m65
Capital intensity and depreciation drag
Revenue growth is bought with debt-funded GPU fleets on short useful lives. Net income and FCF CAGR are unreported/negative in the record; triple-digit revenue growth can coexist with persistently negative GAAP earnings and heavy refinancing needs at a 4.96% 10-year.
m56
Mechanical deceleration
Base effects alone take growth from ~112% toward a far lower number within 18-24 months; the quarterly trend is already flagged 'decelerating.' The direction of the growth RATE is down even as absolute revenue climbs.
m49
Hyperscaler and neocloud price competition
AWS/Azure/GCP plus a widening field of GPU clouds can undercut on bundled pricing; if GPU-hour rates compress faster than utilization improves, revenue growth outruns unit economics and years 2-3 earnings power erodes.
m42
AI capex cycle timing
Sector demand cycle reads 'slowdown' (score -1). If frontier-model training budgets plateau before inference demand scales into the same fleets, contracted renewals arrive into a softer market.
vs expectations: ~6m inline · 1y inline · 2-3y below
The forward growth verdict — is the business itself likely to grow (next 2 quarters / year 1 / years 2–3), judged against its category and against printed expectations. The full horizon ladder + creme renders on the Growth Outlook card above. Not a call on the price (Valuation owns that) or the tape (Sentiment owns that).
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Lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure), and Growth Outlook (the forward growth verdict). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Price Prediction
Lower -27.9% v0.6.0 View full prediction →

When we made this prediction on Sep 24, 2026, CRWV was $90.20. We expect it to be $65.00 by Mar 2027, and we consider it great value under $55.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Sep 24, 2026.

Price when predicted$90.20
Our estimate for Mar 2027$65.00-27.9%
Great value below$55.00
Price history shown (6 Months)

Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.

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My Notes personal — only you see this
v1.1.760 · f4b58a28 · 2026-10-07 20:07:48