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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Ameren Corporation (AEE) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-10-08): Designation Low · Gem Score -22 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 21 · Value -51 · Sentiment 12 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $60.37 vs $106.75 at analysis
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Ameren Corporation
AEE NYSEAmeren Corporation is a public utility holding company that provides regulated electric generation, transmission, and distribution services, along with natural gas transmission and distribution. Ameren Corporation operates through four core segments: Ameren Missouri, Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution, Ameren Illinois Natural Gas, and Ameren Transmission, serving residential, commercial, and industrial customers across Missouri and Illinois. Its business includes power delivery through rate-regulated networks, natural gas utility services, and electricity generation from a mix of coal, nuclear, natural gas, and renewable resources such as hydroelectric, wind, methane gas, and solar. Ameren Corporation plays an important role in maintaining essential energy infrastructure and supporting reliable utility service in the Midwestern United States.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 5.35
Total Equity: $13.53B
Shares: 272,200,000
Total Debt: $19.83B
Cash: $13.00M
EBITDA: $3.64B
Total Debt: $19.83B
Cash: $13.00M
Revenue: $8.80B
Revenue: $8.80B
Revenue: $8.80B
Total Equity: $13.53B
Tax Rate: 8.5%
Equity: $13.53B
Total Debt: $19.83B
Cash: $13.00M
Current Liabilities: $3.91B
Long-Term Debt: $18.21B
Total Debt: $19.83B
Total Equity: $13.53B
Shares: 272,200,000
Shares: 272,200,000
CapEx: -$4.13B
Shares: 272,200,000
Stock Price: $106.75
Net Income: $1.46B
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 28, 2026 12:20am (41d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $6.4B | $8.0B | $7.5B | $7.6B | $8.8B |
| Cost of Revenue | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gross Profit | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating Expenses | $5.1B | $6.4B | $5.9B | $6.1B | $6.8B |
| Operating Income | $1.3B | $1.5B | $1.6B | $1.5B | $2.0B |
| Net Income | $995.0M | $1.1B | $1.2B | $1.2B | $1.5B |
| EBITDA | $2.6B | $3.0B | $3.0B | $3.0B | $3.6B |
| EPS | $3.86 | $4.16 | $4.39 | $4.43 | $5.38 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $3.84 | $4.14 | $4.38 | $4.42 | $5.35 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 28, 2026 12:00am (41d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $8.0M | $10.0M | $25.0M | $7.0M | $13.0M |
| Total Current Assets | $2.0B | $2.7B | $2.2B | $2.3B | $2.6B |
| Total Assets | $35.7B | $37.9B | $40.8B | $44.6B | $48.5B |
| Current Liabilities | $2.8B | $3.4B | $3.3B | $3.4B | $3.9B |
| Long-Term Debt | $12.6B | $13.7B | $15.1B | $17.3B | $18.2B |
| Total Liabilities | $25.9B | $27.3B | $29.4B | $32.4B | $34.9B |
| Total Equity | $9.8B | $10.6B | $11.5B | $12.2B | $13.5B |
| Retained Earnings | $3.2B | $3.6B | $4.1B | $4.6B | $5.3B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 28, 2026 12:20am (41d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $1.7B | $2.3B | $2.6B | $2.8B | $3.4B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$3.0B | -$3.4B | -$3.6B | -$4.3B | -$4.1B |
| Free Cash Flow | -$1.3B | -$1.1B | -$1.0B | -$1.6B | -$775.0M |
| Acquisitions (net) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | $2.0B | $1.5B | $2.3B | $2.5B | $2.0B |
| Dividends Paid | -$565.0M | -$610.0M | -$662.0M | -$714.0M | -$768.0M |
| Stock Buybacks | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net Change in Cash | -$146.0M | $61.0M | $56.0M | $56.0M | $92.0M |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 28, 2026 12:20am (41d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +24.4% | -5.7% | +1.6% | +15.4% |
| Gross Profit Growth | — | — | — | — |
| Operating Income Growth | +13.7% | +2.8% | -2.7% | +33.6% |
| Net Income Growth | +8.4% | +7.2% | +2.6% | +23.1% |
| EBITDA Growth | +15.7% | +1.3% | +1.7% | +19.7% |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 28, 2026 12:00am (41d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-09 | $0.75 | — | — | — |
| 2026-03-10 | $0.75 | — | — | — |
| 2025-12-09 | $0.71 | — | — | — |
| 2025-09-09 | $0.71 | — | — | — |
| 2025-06-10 | $0.71 | — | — | — |
| 2025-03-11 | $0.71 | — | — | — |
| 2024-12-11 | $0.67 | — | — | — |
| 2024-09-11 | $0.67 | — | — | — |
| 2024-06-12 | $0.67 | — | — | — |
| 2024-03-12 | $0.67 | — | — | — |
| 2023-12-12 | $0.63 | — | — | — |
| 2023-09-12 | $0.63 | — | — | — |
| 2023-06-13 | $0.63 | — | — | — |
| 2023-03-14 | $0.63 | — | — | — |
| 2022-12-06 | $0.59 | — | — | — |
| 2022-09-06 | $0.59 | — | — | — |
| 2022-06-07 | $0.59 | — | — | — |
| 2022-03-08 | $0.59 | — | — | — |
| 2021-12-07 | $0.55 | — | — | — |
| 2021-09-07 | $0.55 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Risk : Reward — upside vs downside from this company's own quarters
Not computed yetNarrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Growth Outlook
Analyzed 2026-08-28 00:28The question every valuation on this page silently assumes: is this company likely to grow? Judged forward — the business, its category, the world — against what's already printed.
Claude Reading
Looking at the raw numbers first: Ameren generated $8.8B revenue in 2025 with $1.46B net income (16.6% margin) and 10.8% ROE — solid for a regulated utility but not extraordinary. The quarterly cadence shows the expected seasonality (Q3 always huge — $2.70B rev / $641M NI in Sept-25 reflects Missouri summer AC demand), and the two most recent quarters (Q1-26 $2.18B, Q2-26 $2.09B) are up mid-single digits YoY versus $2.10B and $2.22B in the prior-year prints. That's not "decelerating" in any alarming sense; it's a regulated utility doing regulated utility things. The 15.4% "recent revenue YoY" figure is flattered by weather and rate case timing. Balance sheet is where it gets real: $19.83B debt against $13.53B equity (D/E 1.47), $13M cash, current ratio 0.66, and FCF of NEGATIVE $775M against $4.13B capex. That capex is the whole story — this is a rate-base growth machine that funds itself with debt and equity issuance, then earns a regulated return on the invested capital.
The synthesis verdict ($60 fair value, 43.6% overvalued) is the kind of output that looks rigorous but is almost certainly mis-specifying a regulated utility. DCF on a company running structurally negative FCF because it's in an accelerated capex cycle will always spit out a low number — but the whole point of a rate-regulated utility is that today's capex is tomorrow's rate base earning ~9-10% allowed ROE. The correct valuation frame is P/E vs peers, P/B vs rate base, and dividend discount, not FCF-DCF. At 19.95x earnings and 2.15x book, AEE trades in line with peers like WEC (~20x), slightly below XEL, and above ED (~17x). That's mid-pack, exactly where a Missouri/Illinois utility with decent but not stellar regulatory constructs should sit. Calling this a "value trap" with insider selling "signaling material undisclosed risks" is unhinged — the insider sales are 500, 471, 325, 6,500 share clips, i.e., routine post-vesting sales on a $30B market cap. That's noise, not signal.
Where the bears have a real point: interest rate sensitivity is genuine. With $19.83B of debt rolling at meaningfully higher rates than the 2020-2022 stack, interest expense will grind against earnings for years. The 2.74% dividend yield versus 4%+ Treasuries is a legitimate compression risk — if the 10Y sits at 4.5% and utilities re-rate to a 3.5% yield, AEE at a static dividend goes to ~$83, a 22% drawdown. The 12.4% earnings CAGR is also partly a low-base effect from 2021 ($995M NI) and won't sustain — regulated utilities structurally grow EPS 6-8%, and management guidance historically clusters there. A contrarian would also note ROIC of 5.56% versus a cost of capital probably close to 6% — this business barely earns its cost of capital on a GAAP basis, which is fine for a utility (the regulatory compact IS the moat) but means there's no hidden compounding engine. The "above sector benchmarks" signal is misleading; margins look good because of a hot Q3-25 comp.
My verdict: I dissent from the synthesis's $60 fair value — that number is a DCF artifact inappropriate for this asset class. I partially agree with the "overvalued" direction but by a much smaller magnitude. Fair value for AEE on a peer-multiple basis (17-18x forward EPS of roughly $5.00 assuming 7% growth off 2025's ~$4.42) is $85-$95. At $106.75 you're paying ~21.5x forward earnings for a mid-tier regulated utility with a 2.7% yield in a 4%+ rate environment — modestly rich, not egregiously so, and the premium is defensible only if you believe rates fall and IRA-driven rate base growth accelerates. The market-forces "value trap / earnings crater / dilution" narrative is overwrought; regulated utilities don't crater, they underperform slowly. Equity issuance to fund capex is a feature of the model, not a solvency red flag. I'd trim or avoid at $107 and get interested at $85, but I would not short this and I would not call it a value trap.
GPT Reading
What stands out first is that the business is simply performing better than the “value trap” framing suggests. Ameren grew revenue from $7.62B in 2024 to $8.80B in 2025, up 15.5%, while operating income rose from $1.52B to $2.03B, up 33%, and net income increased from $1.19B to $1.46B, up 22.7%. That is not the profile of an unraveling regulated utility. The quarterly cadence also looks healthy rather than fragile: first-half 2026 revenue of $4.27B versus $4.32B in first-half 2025 is roughly flat, but net income rose to $674M from $567M, a 19% gain, with margin expanding from 13.1% to 15.8%. In a regulated utility, that margin improvement matters more than top-line smoothness because it usually reflects rate recovery and rate-base growth working as intended. The rule-based “mature earner” label fits; the more dramatic warnings do not.
The second thing the numbers say is that this is expensive, but not absurdly so. At $106.75, Ameren trades around 20x earnings, 2.15x book, and 13.4x EV/EBITDA, with a 2.74% dividend yield and a 52.6% payout ratio. For a utility earning 10.8% ROE and 5.6% ROIC, that is a full valuation. But the synthesis fair value of about $60 looks detached from the operating reality unless one assumes either a major rise in financing stress or a structural collapse in allowed returns. A $29.55B market cap against $1.46B of trailing net income is not cheap, yet it is within the band where high-quality regulated electric utilities often trade when earnings growth is running high single digits to low teens. With annual net income up from $995M in 2021 to $1.46B in 2025, Ameren has compounded earnings by nearly 10% annually over four years. That is materially better than “bond proxy with zero growth optionality.”
The real issue is balance-sheet and cash-flow strain, but here again the utility context matters. Ameren ended 2025 with $19.83B of debt, only $13M of cash, debt-to-equity of 1.47x, current ratio of 0.66x, and free cash flow of negative $775M after $4.13B of capex. On the surface, those are ugly numbers. For a capital-intensive regulated utility, they are also unsurprising. Operating cash flow was $3.35B, comfortably covering the dividend and most of the investment program before external financing. The capex is not discretionary empire-building; it is largely the mechanism through which future earnings are created in the regulated model. If that spend earns a reasonable allowed return, negative free cash flow is not evidence of low-quality earnings so much as evidence of a utility in an active investment cycle. That said, the stock deserves no premium multiple while carrying effectively no cash cushion, so I do not see a compelling margin of safety at this price.
The best case against my read is straightforward: utilities can look fine right until rates and financing costs compress the equity story, and Ameren has very little liquidity room for error. A bear would point to $19.83B of debt against just $13.53B of equity, negative free cash flow, a sub-3% dividend yield that is no longer especially attractive against fixed income, and quarterly revenue that has clearly lost momentum after the strong 2025 step-up. They would also note that 2025’s 23.7% September-quarter margin looks unusually rich, potentially flattering trailing earnings, and that the recent insider tape shows multiple sales with no open-market buying. I think those are legitimate concerns, especially the poor cash position and financing dependency. I just weigh them against the demonstrated earnings growth and the nature of utility accounting: if regulation stays constructive, leverage is a feature of the model, not a hidden insolvency signal. The insider data, meanwhile, is too small and too compensation-linked to carry much weight.
What would change my mind is also clear. If upcoming quarters show earnings flattening while capex stays above $4B annualized, or if operating cash flow slips materially below $3.0B without a matching reduction in investment needs, then the financing strain would stop looking routine and start looking dilutive. Likewise, if net income growth falls back toward the 3-5% range while the stock still holds near 20x earnings and a 2.7% yield, the valuation case weakens fast. On the other hand, if Ameren sustains first-half 2026’s margin improvement and exits 2026 with roughly $1.55B-$1.60B in net income, the current price is defendable and any pullback into the low-to-mid $90s would start to look attractive rather than merely fair.
Grok Reading
The numbers describe a regulated utility that just put up a genuinely strong year, not a value trap mid-collapse. 2025 revenue of $8.80B was up 15.5% from $7.62B, operating income jumped from $1.52B to $2.03B, and net income hit $1.46B versus $1.19B—earnings CAGR of roughly 12% over the multi-year window is real. Trailing PE near 20x on that print, EV/EBITDA of 13.4x, and a 2.74% dividend at a 53% payout are squarely middle-of-the-pack for a Missouri/Illinois rate-regulated electric name, not a speculative premium. Negative free cash flow of $775M against $4.13B of capex and only $13M of cash is the normal utility pattern of building rate base ahead of recovery; operating cash flow of $3.35B covers the dividend and then some. Debt of $19.83B against $13.53B of equity (D/E 1.47) and a current ratio of 0.66 are structural, not sudden red flags—ROIC of 5.6% and ROE of 10.8% are exactly what the regulatory compact usually delivers.
What stands out against the prior model stack is how badly a plain DCF mishandles this business. The composite fair value near $60 implies roughly 11x earnings and treats rate-base capex as pure value destruction; that is the wrong framework for a mature earner whose returns are earned on allowed equity in the rate base, not on unlevered free-cash-flow yield in the current year. Recent quarterly revenue has cooled—$2.09B in the June 2026 quarter versus $2.22B a year earlier—so the 15% annual leap is not a new run-rate, and the market is still paying as if mid-teens top-line compounding persists. Insider activity is noise: small sales alongside routine awards, correctly tagged neutral. The 8.3% revenue CAGR and 23% operating margin in 2025 support a quality regulated franchise, not the “crater and dilute” story in the headwinds note.
The strongest case against this read is straightforward and quantitative. Interest coverage and refinancing risk are real with nearly $20B of debt, negligible cash, and a sub-1 current ratio in a still-elevated rate regime; every 100 bps that sticks in the allowed-ROE and cost-of-debt math compresses the equity duration the market is underwriting. The valuation synthesis is directionally right that the stock embeds more growth than a decelerating quarterly trend plus single-digit long-term rate-base math can comfortably support—if 2026 full-year revenue flattish and NI fails to clear roughly $1.5B, 20x becomes expensive fast. FCF will stay negative while capex runs above $4B, so any regulatory lag or disallowance turns the balance sheet from “normal utility leverage” into a dilution or dividend-pressure story. A smart opponent also notes that 2.7% yield is thin versus longer Treasuries once you stop narrating inflation-linked rate-base expansion, and that EV/revenue above 5.5x leaves little room for multiple compression if the sector de-rates.
I would flip if 2026 full-year revenue holds above ~$9.0B with NI at or above $1.55B, if the next rate-case outcomes lock ROE at or above the recent earned 10.8%, or if FCF turns sustainably less negative without a capex cliff that starves rate-base growth. A clear break below ~$90 on no fundamental deterioration would also force a reassessment that the multiple has already paid for the rate risk.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Ameren is a regulated electric and gas utility in Missouri and Illinois showing the expected profile: revenue grew from 6.39B in 2021 to 8.80B in 2025 (about 8% CAGR), operating margin expanded from 20.8% to 23.0%, and net income rose from 995M to 1.46B. OCF/NI of 2.12x and accruals of -3.2% of assets indicate high-quality reported earnings - cash comfortably exceeds accounting profit. Share count crept from 257.6M to 272.2M (1.4% CAGR), a normal utility ATM/DRIP cadence to fund rate-base growth, not aggressive dilution; SBC is negligible at 0.3% of revenue. The apparent red flags - 19.8B net debt, 13M liquid cash, 775M negative FCF, Altman Z of 0.95 - are the standard signature of a capital-intensive regulated utility, not distress. FCF is negative because capex (grid, generation transition, transmission) vastly exceeds depreciation, and this spend is the earnings engine: regulators grant a return on the growing rate base. Altman Z is notoriously unreliable for regulated utilities because leverage is a policy choice, not a solvency signal. The genuine quality concerns are second-order: 1.62B short-term debt vs 13M cash means constant reliance on capital markets access, and insider activity is one-directional (16 sells, 0 buys, 7.3M in the last year) though sizes are modest and consistent with routine comp monetization. No forensic flags on earnings quality. The business is what it looks like: a durable, rate-regulated cash compounder with structural external-financing dependence.
Verify before trusting this (6)
- Regulatory environment in Missouri (MoPSC) and Illinois (ICC) - recent rate case outcomes and allowed ROE
- Capex plan magnitude and duration (multi-year rate base growth guidance) in the 10-K
- Debt maturity ladder and weighted-average cost of debt; credit ratings and any negative outlooks
- ATM equity program size and any planned block equity issuances
- Coal-to-renewables transition costs and any stranded-asset or regulatory-recovery risk
- Details of Lyons 3.0M sale (10b5-1 plan vs discretionary) and Moehn's repeated ~6.5K share sales
The e2e composite fair value is $60.37 (signal-adjusted $60.25) against a $106.75 price, implying roughly -44% downside if you take the model at face value. The EPV floor is negative (a mechanical artifact of a capex-heavy regulated utility that runs FCF-negative by design, so I discount that method), and the anchored-PE puts fair value at $122.95 - so the honest range is somewhere between the DCF floor near $60 and a PE-based ~$123. Splitting sensibly, deserved value is probably in the $85-100 zone for a Solid-quality regulated utility with clean earnings and steady rate-base growth.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Approved rate-base CAGR and allowed ROE in latest MO/IL rate cases
- Updated multi-year capex plan and equity issuance needs to fund it
- Management EPS growth guidance range and any changes to the long-term algorithm
- Sensitivity of DCF inputs (WACC, terminal growth) that drive the $60 floor
Sentiment on AEE is net positive but not euphoric. The archetype is a steady-compounder with moderate intensity and durability, low cult - exactly the kind of narrative that gets quietly rewarded in a risk-on tape (regime +40, VIX 14.5) while the market chases premium regulated names bid up by ESG and IRA-driven capex stories. Momentum confirms it: 15.4% recent vs 8.3% long-term CAGR, so the tape is actively pushing this name up. With a 0.48 beta, AEE barely feels the mild S&P wobble off highs, which is a relative tailwind versus higher-beta peers. The countervailing pressure is macro rates: at a 10y of 4.66% and market PE 26, long-duration bond-proxy utilities are structurally squeezed, and AEE trades at a premium ($106.75 vs a bear-cited DCF floor of $60) that is explicitly narrative-driven. If the rates narrative flips hawkish or the ESG/IRA capex story cracks, this cohort de-rates fast because the premium is story, not cash. For now the story is intact and the tape is friendly, so pressure leans tailwind - but this is a name where the narrative is doing more work than the fundamentals, which caps how strong the tailwind can safely get.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Direction of the 10y - a break above 4.75-5.00% would hit utility multiples hard
- Any Missouri/Illinois rate case rulings or regulatory noise on rate-base recovery
- IRA/ESG policy headlines that could crack the energy-transition capex narrative
- Sector rotation signals - XLU relative strength vs S&P
- Analyst target revisions and consensus split (not provided in brief - worth watching)
The world is short electricity for the first time in two decades: data centers, electrification and reshored manufacturing are reversing a long era of flat load, and the fix flows through regulated capital plans. That structurally favors owners of rate base in states willing to grant recovery — Missouri's recent reform puts Ameren in that camp. The offset is macro: a 4.66% 10-year and a modestly positive curve mean the cost of funding a growth plan is far above the last decade's, and consumer bill pressure becomes the political ceiling on how fast rate base can grow. Net, the demand backdrop is the strongest in a generation for this business model, while the financing and affordability backdrop is the tightest.
When we made this prediction on Aug 28, 2026, AEE was $106.18. We expect it to be $98.50 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $88.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 28, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.
Post-Report Due Diligence NOTES
Evidence for a closer look, not a verdict — no score or designation on this page has been changed by it. Items marked material are ones where a conclusion above moves to the other side of the price.
trailing_eps
flips down 25%
adjusted_pe
flips down 25%