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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Watch · Gem Score +0 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 87 · Value -72 · Sentiment 10 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $161.07 vs $507.64 at analysis
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profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
price-history,income-trend,key-metrics,financials(statement tables),insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.
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any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER ·
raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds);
every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.
Applied Materials, Inc.
AMAT NASDAQApplied Materials, Inc. is a leading U.S.-based provider of materials engineering solutions for the global electronics and semiconductor ecosystem. The company develops, manufactures and services advanced equipment, software and related tools used to fabricate semiconductor chips, flat panel displays and other electronic components. Its systems support key wafer processes such as deposition, etch, ion implantation, chemical mechanical planarization, metrology and inspection, enabling customers to produce integrated circuits at advanced technology nodes. Applied Materials also supplies equipment for manufacturing displays used in computers, televisions, smartphones and other consumer devices, as well as for coatings in flexible electronics, packaging and solar products. Operating through segments including Semiconductor Systems and Applied Global Services, the company serves major chipmakers and display manufacturers across the United States, Asia, Europe and other regions. Founded in 1967 and headquartered in Santa Clara, California, Applied Materials plays a central role in the semiconductor equipment and materials value chain.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 8.66
Total Equity: $20.42B
Shares: 808,000,000
Total Debt: $6.46B
Cash: $7.24B
EBITDA: $8.72B
Total Debt: $6.46B
Cash: $7.24B
Revenue: $28.37B
Revenue: $28.37B
Revenue: $28.37B
Total Equity: $20.42B
Tax Rate: 24.5%
Equity: $20.42B
Total Debt: $6.46B
Cash: $7.24B
Current Liabilities: $8.00B
Long-Term Debt: $6.46B
Total Debt: $6.46B
Total Equity: $20.42B
Shares: 808,000,000
Shares: 808,000,000
CapEx: -$2.26B
Shares: 808,000,000
Stock Price: $507.67
Net Income: $7.00B
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 31, 2026 9:07am (23d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $23.1B | $25.8B | $26.5B | $27.2B | $28.4B |
| Cost of Revenue | $12.1B | $13.8B | $14.1B | $14.3B | $14.6B |
| Gross Profit | $10.9B | $12.0B | $12.4B | $12.9B | $13.8B |
| Operating Expenses | $4.0B | $4.2B | $4.7B | $5.0B | $5.5B |
| Operating Income | $6.9B | $7.8B | $7.7B | $7.9B | $8.3B |
| Net Income | $5.9B | $6.5B | $6.9B | $7.2B | $7.0B |
| EBITDA | $7.3B | $8.2B | $8.2B | $8.3B | $8.7B |
| EPS | $6.47 | $7.49 | $8.16 | $8.68 | $8.71 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $6.40 | $7.44 | $8.11 | $8.61 | $8.66 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 31, 2026 9:07am (23d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $5.0B | $2.0B | $6.1B | $8.0B | $7.2B |
| Total Current Assets | $16.1B | $15.9B | $19.1B | $21.2B | $20.9B |
| Total Assets | $25.8B | $26.7B | $30.7B | $34.4B | $36.3B |
| Current Liabilities | $6.3B | $7.4B | $7.4B | $8.5B | $8.0B |
| Long-Term Debt | $5.5B | $5.5B | $5.5B | $5.5B | $6.5B |
| Total Liabilities | $13.6B | $14.5B | $14.4B | $15.4B | $15.9B |
| Total Equity | $12.2B | $12.2B | $16.3B | $19.0B | $20.4B |
| Retained Earnings | $32.2B | $37.9B | $43.7B | $49.7B | $55.2B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 1, 2026 12:15am (22d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $5.4B | $5.4B | $8.7B | $8.7B | $8.0B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$668.0M | -$787.0M | -$1.1B | -$1.2B | -$2.3B |
| Free Cash Flow | $4.8B | $4.6B | $7.6B | $7.5B | $5.7B |
| Acquisitions (net) | -$12.0M | -$441.0M | -$25.0M | $0 | -$29.0M |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | $0 | $0 | $0 | $694.0M | $291.0M |
| Dividends Paid | -$838.0M | -$873.0M | -$975.0M | -$1.2B | -$1.4B |
| Stock Buybacks | -$3.8B | -$6.1B | -$2.2B | -$3.8B | -$4.9B |
| Net Change in Cash | -$365.0M | -$3.0B | $4.1B | $1.9B | -$801.0M |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jul 31, 2026 9:07am (23d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +11.8% | +2.8% | +2.5% | +4.4% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +9.9% | +3.3% | +4.1% | +7.1% |
| Operating Income Growth | +13.0% | -1.7% | +2.8% | +5.4% |
| Net Income Growth | +10.8% | +5.1% | +4.7% | -2.5% |
| EBITDA Growth | +13.0% | -0.8% | +1.1% | +5.6% |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jul 31, 2026 9:07am (23d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | $0.53 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-21 | $0.53 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-19 | $0.46 | — | — | — |
| 2025-11-20 | $0.46 | — | — | — |
| 2025-08-21 | $0.46 | — | — | — |
| 2025-05-22 | $0.46 | — | — | — |
| 2025-02-20 | $0.40 | — | — | — |
| 2024-11-21 | $0.40 | — | — | — |
| 2024-08-22 | $0.40 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-22 | $0.40 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-21 | $0.32 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-22 | $0.32 | — | — | — |
| 2023-08-23 | $0.32 | — | — | — |
| 2023-05-24 | $0.32 | — | — | — |
| 2023-02-22 | $0.26 | — | — | — |
| 2022-11-23 | $0.26 | — | — | — |
| 2022-08-24 | $0.26 | — | — | — |
| 2022-05-25 | $0.26 | — | — | — |
| 2022-02-22 | $0.24 | — | — | — |
| 2021-11-24 | $0.24 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Risk : Reward — if the last quarter repeats
Live · as of 2026-08-19 08:28Even the bull case prices 82% below today — the ratio here measures the model-vs-market gap, not payoff odds. Another quarter like the worst recent one costs 90%.
| Case | Growth | Margin | Fair value | vs price ($507.64) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull — recovery | +7% | 33.7% | $91.12 | -82% |
| Base — stabilizes | +5% | 29.3% | $75.11 | -85% |
| Bear — keeps slipping | +2% | 24.9% | $60.99 | -88% |
| Stress — last quarter repeats | -3% | 25.4% | $51.53 | -90% |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
Looking at the raw prints first: the two most recent quarters are a genuine step-change. Q2'26 revenue of $7.91B with 35.5% net margin and $2.81B net income annualizes to roughly $11B+ in earnings — a massive jump from the FY25 base of $7.00B. Q1'26 also came in hot at 28.9% margin vs. the 24-25% trailing baseline. If I take the last two quarters and run-rate them, we're looking at ~$29-32B revenue and $9-10B net income for FY26 — meaningfully above the trailing-five-year plateau of $23-28B revenue that seemed stuck. That's not a mature-earner trajectory; that's a re-acceleration, and the synthesis models built on trailing CAGRs (revenue 3.4%, earnings 1%) are anchored to a base that the two most recent data points are breaking away from.
That said, the valuation math still doesn't work at $507. Even generously annualizing the Q2'26 run-rate to $11B net income, the P/E on forward-forward is ~37x on a cyclical capital equipment supplier. Historical AMAT trades 15-25x through-cycle, and every prior WFE peak (2018, 2022) was followed by 30-40% earnings drawdowns. EV/EBITDA at 39.6x is priced for a software company, not a company whose top-five customers (TSMC, Samsung, Intel, SK Hynix, Micron) collectively determine its revenue and have every incentive to squeeze margins. The synthesis fair value of $100 is too low — that anchors on trailing DCF and ignores the margin jump — but the market's $507 anchors on the opposite extreme, extrapolating the 35.5% Q2 margin into perpetuity. A more honest fair value using $10B normalized earnings at a 22-25x cycle-appropriate multiple lands around $220-280, still implying 45-55% downside.
The Market Forces model claiming "market share erosion" and "declining FCF" is partially wrong on the surface — Q2'26 print is objectively strong and FCF weakness ($5.7B vs. $7.96B OCF, so $2.26B capex is elevated) reflects capacity investment, not distress. But the direction is defensible: FCF CAGR of -13.4% while revenue was flat-ish means AMAT is having to invest more per revenue dollar to stay competitive, likely against ASML (EUV monopoly encroaching into deposition-adjacent applications) and Lam Research. Insider activity is unambiguously bearish — six S-Sale transactions in mid-to-late June 2026, right after the blowout Q2 print, with ~106,000 shares sold and zero opportunistic buys. Insiders sell into strength precisely when they think strength is peak, and this pattern (concentrated cluster following an earnings beat) is a classic peak-cycle tell. The "Neutral Insider Activity" secondary signal is misreading this — cluster selling into a print at 58x P/E is not neutral.
The contrarian case for holding here: the AI capex cycle is genuinely different in duration from prior cycles because leading-edge node transitions (2nm, gate-all-around, backside power delivery, hybrid bonding) require 2-3x more process steps per wafer, structurally increasing AMAT's dollar content per fab regardless of unit volume. If TSMC's Arizona + Japan + Germany buildout plus Intel Foundry plus Samsung's Texas fab all execute through 2028, AMAT's revenue could sustain $32-38B for several years. But even in that bull scenario, $507 requires the market to also believe operating margins hold at 35%+ — which requires no pricing concessions to a customer base that is literally five names. I don't buy that. The narrative model's "anchored, platform-monopoly, moderate durability" framing is right; the multiple is pricing durability as high, and the setup is asymmetric downside when either (a) fab completion timelines slip, (b) a customer inventory correction hits — both historically inevitable, and (c) insider selling accelerates. I agree with the synthesis direction (overvalued) but dissent on magnitude — fair value is $240-280, not $100. The 35.5% margin quarter matters and the models are undercounting it, but not nearly enough to justify $507.
GPT Reading
At $507.67, the market is valuing Applied Materials at roughly $403 billion against last fiscal year revenue of $28.37 billion, net income of $7.00 billion, and free cash flow of $5.70 billion. That is about 14.2x sales, 57.9x earnings, and roughly 70x FCF for a company whose 5-year revenue CAGR is only about 5.3% from $23.06 billion in 2021 to $28.37 billion in 2025, and whose net income grew from $5.89 billion to $7.00 billion, barely 4.4% annualized. The recent quarters are healthy operationally — revenue went from $6.78 billion in July 2024 to $7.91 billion in April 2026, and net margin recovered from a weak 16.5% in January 2025 to 35.5% most recently — but those are not the numbers of a business that plausibly supports a $400 billion equity value unless one assumes a major, durable step-up in earnings power that is not yet visible in the annual base. The stock is being priced like a software-quality secular compounder while the reported financials still look like an excellent but cyclical capital equipment franchise.
What stands out most is that the business itself is good enough to deserve a premium, just not this premium. Gross margin of 48.7%, operating margin of 29.2%, ROIC of 31.9%, ROE of 34.3%, net cash essentially flat to slightly positive with $7.24 billion cash versus $6.46 billion debt, and a current ratio of 2.61 all point to a high-quality operator. This is not a balance-sheet accident or a low-quality peak. Quarterly revenue also appears to be reaccelerating: from $6.80 billion in October 2025 and $7.01 billion in January 2026 to $7.91 billion in April 2026, a meaningful sequential lift. But even if I annualize the latest quarter’s earnings, $2.81 billion implies about $11.2 billion run-rate net income, which still leaves the stock at roughly 36x run-rate earnings before adjusting for cycle risk. For a semicap company, that is stretched. If one instead normalizes around the last three annual net income figures of $6.86 billion, $7.18 billion, and $7.00 billion, the current multiple looks outright euphoric.
The contradiction I see in some of the more bullish framing is that people are treating a strong quarter and AI exposure as proof of a permanently higher base, while the cash-flow record argues for caution. Operating cash flow in 2025 was $7.96 billion and FCF was $5.70 billion after $2.26 billion of capex; good numbers, but not numbers that support a $403 billion market cap on present economics. More importantly, the momentum set is not cleanly secular: annual revenue rose just 4.4% in 2025, net income actually fell from $7.18 billion to $7.00 billion, and the supplied earnings CAGR over the measured period is only 1%. That is the key disconnect. The market is paying an AI infrastructure multiple for a company whose full-year financial statements still show low- to mid-single-digit growth with flat earnings. Great business, bad price.
The best rebuttal is straightforward: the annuals are stale, and the quarterlies may be showing the beginning of a new earnings regime. The latest two quarters delivered $4.84 billion of net income on $14.92 billion of revenue, implying a 32.4% net margin, far above the 24.7% annual margin in 2025. If Applied is entering a period where advanced packaging, deposition intensity, gate-all-around, and China plus onshoring demand structurally lift both revenue and margins, then using backward-looking 2025 FCF and EPS will understate intrinsic value badly. A bull would also point out that the balance sheet is pristine, returns on capital are elite, and the company has clearly executed through prior cycles better than a typical semicap name. On that view, the “mature earner” label misses that AMAT may be becoming a scarcer, more strategically indispensable asset in a capex stack where complexity rises faster than wafer volumes.
I still weigh that rebuttal less heavily because the valuation leaves almost no room for the usual semicap volatility. To justify $507, I would want confidence that annual earnings power is not $7-8 billion but sustainably $11-13 billion and still compounding at a double-digit rate beyond the current build cycle. The recent numbers do not establish that yet. Insider activity is not decisive, but the recent cluster of sales around late June does not help the argument that management sees obvious undervaluation at this level. What would change my mind is simple: two to three more quarters with revenue holding above $7.8-8.0 billion, net margins staying near or above 30%, and full-year free cash flow moving toward $9-10 billion. If AMAT can print that without a balance-sheet stretch and with customer concentration risk staying contained, then today’s multiple would look less absurd. Absent that, I think this is a top-tier business being priced for a super-cycle that the reported multi-year numbers still do not confirm.
Grok Reading
The raw numbers describe a superbly profitable but slow-growing mature industrial franchise that the market has re-rated as if it were a hyper-growth platform. Applied Materials generated $28.37B in fiscal 2025 revenue and $7.00B in net income—essentially flat earnings versus the prior year’s $7.18B—on a trailing revenue CAGR of just 3.4% and an earnings CAGR of 1%. Free cash flow of $5.70B is solid in absolute terms and the balance sheet is clean (net cash, 0.32 debt-to-equity, current ratio 2.6), yet FCF itself has compounded at –13.4%. Returns remain excellent (ROE 34%, ROIC 32%, operating margin 29%), which is exactly what a mature earner should deliver. What the price of $507.67 and $403B market cap require, however, is something else entirely: a permanent step-change in the earnings power of a cyclical capital-equipment supplier. At 58x earnings, 14x sales and 40x EV/EBITDA, the stock embeds multi-year double-digit growth that the trailing financials simply do not show.
The most recent quarter does give the bulls something real. April 2026 revenue jumped to $7.91B with a 35.5% net margin—material sequential and year-over-year acceleration after several $6.8–7.3B quarters in the mid-to-high 20s margins. That print is consistent with an AI-driven fab-tooling upcycle and explains why revenue confidence is flagged as high and the quarterly trend as accelerating. Still, one strong quarter and a 4.4% recent revenue growth rate do not bridge a valuation gap this wide. Even if the company can sustain mid-teens earnings growth for several years off the AI and geopolitical onshoring wave, the multiple would still leave the shares expensive relative to any historical semiconductor-equipment cycle peak. The DCF and composite work pointing to roughly $100–110 is probably too punitive—quality of earnings, moat in deposition/etch, and net-cash status support something closer to a mid-20s earnings multiple on normalized power, call it $180–250—but that still implies 50–65% downside from here.
The strongest case against this read is that the market is correctly treating the current cycle as structural rather than cyclical. Leading-edge node complexity, advanced packaging, and redundant capacity builds in the U.S., Europe and Asia could keep wafer-fab equipment spend elevated for longer than any prior cycle, turning AMAT’s installed-base and process-of-record positions into a multi-year tollbooth. The April quarter’s margin spike to 35.5% and the high revenue-confidence signal are early evidence that operating leverage is kicking in precisely as the narrative predicts. If TSMC, Intel and Samsung capex guides continue to rise and AMAT takes share in the most advanced deposition and metrology steps, the $7B earnings base could look conservative within two years—and a 35–40x multiple on a higher base would ratify much of today’s price. Insider selling, while heavy in June 2026, is tagged neutral overall and may simply reflect liquidity after a multi-year run rather than informed distribution ahead of a cliff.
I weigh that case as real but incomplete. Semiconductor equipment has never escaped boom-bust dynamics for long; customer concentration remains extreme; and the –13.4% FCF CAGR plus sub-sector benchmark signals already hint that cash conversion is lagging the story. Narrative intensity is strong and the premium is almost entirely story-driven (fundamentals anchor nearer $110–130). A durable re-rating requires the growth to show up in the annual numbers, not just one quarter and sell-side models.
What would flip the verdict: two more consecutive quarters of revenue above $8B with net margins holding above 30%, accompanied by explicit upward revisions to fiscal 2027–28 consensus that push run-rate earnings toward $12B+, or clear evidence in customer capex guides that the equipment cycle has another three-plus years of double-digit growth still ahead. Conversely, any guide-down from the mega-fabs or a sequential revenue drop back below $7.2B would confirm the peak-cycle thesis and accelerate mean reversion.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
AMAT shows a five-year march of durable execution: revenue $23.1B to $28.4B (23% cumulative), gross margin expanding from 47.3% to 48.7%, operating margin steady near 29%, and net income rising from $5.9B to $7.0B. FCF averaged roughly $6B/yr and hit $5.7B in the latest year on $28.4B revenue - a 20% FCF margin. Altman Z of 19.3, OCF/NI of 1.07x, accruals of -1.4% of assets, and Beneish M of -2.57 all point to clean, cash-backed earnings with no aggressive accounting flags.
Verify before trusting this (6)
- Customer concentration - what % of revenue comes from the top 3 foundry/memory customers (TSMC, Samsung, Intel)
- China exposure and export-control impact on services and ICAPS revenue in the latest 10-K
- Cause of FCF stepdown from $7.49B to $5.70B - working capital build, inventory, or capex
- Segment mix trend: Semi Systems vs AGS (services) vs Display, and services attach rate
- Backlog and deferred revenue trends as a leading indicator of WFE demand
- Whether 10b5-1 plans govern the concentrated CEO selling in late June 2026
Price is $507.64 against a composite FV of $108.92 and signal-adjusted FV of $100.51 - a nominal ~80% overvaluation. Sanity check: DCF at $89 and EPV floor at $72 both look like they are extrapolating through-cycle or trough economics for a business currently earning peak WFE dollars; the anchored-PE of $185 is more defensible but still less than 40% of today's price. Even generously doubling the anchored-PE number to reflect a structurally higher AI-era earnings base ($370 area) leaves the stock ~35% above a stretched deserved value. The Fortress quality grade (87) legitimately raises what AMAT deserves - mid-20s FCF margin, net cash, buybacks - but quality this visible is exactly what the market has already capitalized. The bull case (toll-taker on every leading-edge transistor) is the consensus narrative; to justify $507 you need WFE spend to keep compounding without a cyclical air-pocket and AMAT to hold deposition/etch share against AMEC, LRCX and TEL. That is a plausible base case, not a bargain. Margin of safety is negative on every method provided. This is a great business at a full-to-rich price, not a mispricing.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Forward WFE guidance from TSMC, Samsung, Intel capex plans for 2025-2026
- AMAT segment mix: leading-edge vs ICAPS vs services revenue trajectory
- China revenue exposure and any export-control drag on shippable backlog
- Gross margin trend - is the mix shift to advanced nodes structurally lifting margin or is it cycle-peak
- Share count trajectory and buyback pace vs FCF
AMAT sits inside the strongest active narrative in the market: the AI fab buildout, where it is cast as a monopoly toll-taker on every advanced-node transistor. That platform-monopoly framing is strong and moderately durable, and news flow is reinforcing it - Zacks blog highlights AI-driven momentum, Lam Research just got repriced on the same thesis, and Mizuho is actively pushing back on the China/CXMT memory-glut fear. For a beta-1.57 semi-cap name, riding the dominant narrative in a mildly risk-on tape (VIX 16, S&P near highs) is a real tailwind. Against that, cracks are visible. Headlines are openly comparing this AI cap-ex boom to 1999, one piece flags AMAT as 'not a clear bargain' after a sharp pullback, and another lumps it with 'risky' Wall Street favorites. The stock has already pulled back from highs even as the narrative burns hot - a classic sign the story is running ahead of what marginal buyers will pay, and that analyst tone is starting to diverge from the bull script. Net: the narrative is still doing the heavy lifting upward, but the intensity is peaking and the pushback is getting airtime. Modest tailwind, not a clean one.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Whether the 'AI cap-ex = 1999' framing spreads from op-eds into sell-side downgrades
- China/CXMT memory-glut headlines - a re-escalation would puncture the Mizuho pushback
- Target revisions after next print: are analysts still raising, or quietly trimming into strength
- Sector rotation signals - if semis lead a pullback, AMAT's 1.57 beta bites first
This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.
When we made this prediction on Aug 1, 2026, AMAT was $507.64. We expect it to be $448.00 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $340.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 1, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.