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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Amgen Inc. (AMGN) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Low · Gem Score -26 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 21 · Value -64 · Sentiment 47 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $330.41 vs $407.83 at analysis
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profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
price-history,income-trend,key-metrics,financials(statement tables),insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.
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Amgen Inc.
AMGN NASDAQAmgen Inc. is a biotechnology company that discovers, develops, manufactures, and delivers human therapeutics worldwide. It focuses on innovative medicines addressing serious illnesses in areas such as oncology, inflammation, cardiovascular disease, bone health, nephrology, and neurology. Key products target conditions like cancer, rheumatoid arthritis, osteoporosis, anemia, and migraines, providing treatments that help manage chronic diseases and improve patient outcomes. Amgen Inc. serves healthcare providers including physicians, clinics, dialysis centers, hospitals, and pharmacies, distributing its portfolio through pharmaceutical wholesale distributors. The company also engages in collaborations, such as partnerships for development and commercialization of specific therapies. Founded in 1980 and headquartered in Thousand Oaks, California, Amgen Inc. plays a vital role in the biotechnology sector by advancing biologic medicines that address unmet medical needs and contribute to global healthcare advancements.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 14.23
Total Equity: $8.66B
Shares: 542,000,000
Total Debt: $54.60B
Cash: $9.13B
EBITDA: $14.25B
Total Debt: $54.60B
Cash: $9.13B
Revenue: $36.75B
Revenue: $36.75B
Revenue: $36.75B
Total Equity: $8.66B
Tax Rate: 14.1%
Equity: $8.66B
Total Debt: $54.60B
Cash: $9.13B
Current Liabilities: $25.49B
Long-Term Debt: $50.01B
Total Debt: $54.60B
Total Equity: $8.66B
Shares: 542,000,000
Shares: 542,000,000
CapEx: -$1.86B
Shares: 542,000,000
Stock Price: $390.02
Net Income: $7.71B
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 6, 2026 12:26am (17d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $26.0B | $26.3B | $28.2B | $33.4B | $36.8B |
| Cost of Revenue | $6.5B | $6.4B | $8.5B | $12.9B | $12.0B |
| Gross Profit | $19.5B | $19.9B | $19.7B | $20.6B | $24.7B |
| Operating Expenses | $11.9B | $10.4B | $11.8B | $13.3B | $15.6B |
| Operating Income | $7.6B | $9.6B | $7.9B | $7.3B | $9.1B |
| Net Income | $5.9B | $6.6B | $6.7B | $4.1B | $7.7B |
| EBITDA | $11.0B | $13.0B | $12.0B | $12.9B | $14.2B |
| EPS | $10.34 | $12.18 | $12.56 | $7.62 | $14.33 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $10.28 | $12.11 | $12.49 | $7.56 | $14.23 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 31, 2026 9:17am (23d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $8.0B | $7.6B | $10.9B | $12.0B | $9.1B |
| Total Current Assets | $19.4B | $22.2B | $30.3B | $29.0B | $29.1B |
| Total Assets | $61.2B | $65.1B | $97.2B | $91.8B | $90.6B |
| Current Liabilities | $12.2B | $15.7B | $18.4B | $23.1B | $25.5B |
| Long-Term Debt | $33.2B | $37.4B | $63.2B | $56.5B | $50.0B |
| Total Liabilities | $54.5B | $61.5B | $90.9B | $86.0B | $81.9B |
| Total Equity | $6.7B | $3.7B | $6.2B | $5.9B | $8.7B |
| Retained Earnings | -$24.6B | -$28.6B | -$26.5B | -$27.6B | -$25.1B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 6, 2026 12:26am (17d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $9.3B | $9.7B | $8.5B | $11.5B | $10.0B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$880.0M | -$936.0M | -$1.1B | -$1.1B | -$1.9B |
| Free Cash Flow | $8.4B | $8.8B | $7.4B | $10.4B | $8.1B |
| Acquisitions (net) | -$2.5B | -$3.8B | -$27.0B | $0 | -$53.0M |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | $795.0M | $6.9B | $26.3B | -$3.6B | -$5.0B |
| Dividends Paid | -$4.0B | -$4.2B | -$4.6B | -$4.8B | -$5.1B |
| Stock Buybacks | -$5.0B | -$6.4B | $0 | -$200.0M | $0 |
| Net Change in Cash | $1.7B | -$360.0M | $3.3B | $1.0B | -$2.8B |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 6, 2026 12:26am (17d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +1.3% | +7.1% | +18.6% | +10.0% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +2.0% | -0.9% | +4.2% | +20.2% |
| Operating Income Growth | +25.2% | -17.4% | -8.1% | +25.1% |
| Net Income Growth | +11.2% | +2.5% | -39.1% | +88.5% |
| EBITDA Growth | +17.6% | -7.8% | +7.4% | +10.9% |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jul 31, 2026 9:17am (23d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | $2.52 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-13 | $2.52 | — | — | — |
| 2025-11-21 | $2.38 | — | — | — |
| 2025-08-22 | $2.38 | — | — | — |
| 2025-05-16 | $2.38 | — | — | — |
| 2025-02-14 | $2.38 | — | — | — |
| 2024-11-18 | $2.25 | — | — | — |
| 2024-08-16 | $2.25 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-16 | $2.25 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-15 | $2.25 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-16 | $2.13 | — | — | — |
| 2023-08-17 | $2.13 | — | — | — |
| 2023-05-17 | $2.13 | — | — | — |
| 2023-02-14 | $2.13 | — | — | — |
| 2022-11-16 | $1.94 | — | — | — |
| 2022-08-17 | $1.94 | — | — | — |
| 2022-05-16 | $1.94 | — | — | — |
| 2022-02-14 | $1.94 | — | — | — |
| 2021-11-15 | $1.76 | — | — | — |
| 2021-08-16 | $1.76 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Risk : Reward — if the last quarter repeats
Live · as of 2026-08-19 08:29Recovery pays +10%; another quarter like the worst recent one costs 37%. Ratio 0.3:1.
| Case | Growth | Margin | Fair value | vs price ($407.83) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull — recovery | +14% | 34.5% | $447.72 | +10% |
| Base — stabilizes | +9% | 30.0% | $338.69 | -17% |
| Bear — keeps slipping | +5% | 25.5% | $250.51 | -39% |
| Stress — last quarter repeats | +6% | 25.3% | $257.43 | -37% |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
Starting from the raw numbers: TTM revenue is roughly $38.1B (summing the last four quarters), up from $33.4B in 2024 — call it ~14% growth, but a chunk of that is the Horizon Therapeutics deal annualizing, not organic. Q2 2026 at $10.05B with 23.6% net margin looks clean, but the quarterly margin sequence is wildly noisy (33.7% → 13.5% → 21.1% → 23.6%), which screams acquisition accounting, IPR&D charges, and tax true-ups rather than underlying operating leverage. Annual operating income of $9.08B in 2025 is actually below 2022's $9.57B on $10B more revenue — operating margin has compressed from 36% (2022) to 24.7%. That's the tell the bull narrative glosses over: Amgen bought revenue growth with balance sheet damage and margin dilution.
The balance sheet is genuinely ugly for a "fortress." $54.6B debt against $8.66B equity (D/E of 6.3x) and only $9.1B cash. The 89% ROE is a leverage artifact — ROA is 8.5% and ROIC 14.4%, respectable but not fortress. $8.1B FCF against $54B net debt is ~6.7x net-debt-to-FCF, and the dividend payout is 66% of earnings, leaving thin cushion for both deleveraging and the pipeline spend the bull case requires. At $390 and 27x earnings / 26x FCF, you're paying a full multiple for a company whose organic growth (ex-Horizon) is probably mid-single-digits and whose absolute operating profit hasn't grown in four years.
On the prior models: the synthesis verdict of $322-333 fair value (-18% downside from $407) is directionally right and I'd sharpen it. The narrative layer's framing that the 22% premium reflects "pipeline optionality" is charitable — I'd counter that it more likely reflects passive/dividend-fund bid and healthcare defensive rotation, not a rigorous pipeline SOTP. Tezepelumab is a partnered asset (AZN takes half), MariTide/MagicCD (GLP-1/CVD) faces a brutal Lilly/Novo duopoly, and biosimilar erosion on Enbrel, Prolia (2025 LOE), and Xgeva is a known headwind the sell-side habitually underestimates. The pre-flight "traditional pharma" tag is correct and undercuts the biotech-premium argument. The "decelerating quarterly trend" flag in revenue confidence matters — Q1 2026 at $8.62B was a sequential drop, and the Q2 pop needs to prove durable. The insider data is useless (only routine director awards of identical 665-share grants — no open-market buys, no conviction signal either way).
Contrarian steelman for the bulls: if MariTide reads out positively in obesity/cardiometabolic, Amgen has a credible third-place GLP-1 franchise with injectable-monthly differentiation, and the stock re-rates to $475+ on pipeline reval. Repatha is still growing, Tezspire is ramping, and rare disease (Horizon) has pricing power. Also — at 27x with a 2.5% yield growing 5-6%/year, this is a bond proxy in a rate-cut regime, and if 10-year yields grind to 3.5%, defensive healthcare gets a multiple tailwind independent of fundamentals. That's the honest bull case, and it's not crazy — but it requires either a rate tailwind or a MariTide win, both binary. I dissent mildly with the synthesis only on magnitude: fair value is probably $330-355 (I'd weight the DCF but add back some pipeline option value), not $322. Downside to fundamentals is ~10-15%, not 18%. The stock isn't a short — the FCF and dividend put a floor around $340 — but it's not a buy here either. Wait for either a MariTide de-risking event or a pullback to the low-$340s where you're paying 22x for a fortress-cash-flow story with real pipeline optionality thrown in free. At $390, you're paying for the optionality upfront.
GPT Reading
Amgen is being valued like a high-quality grower, but the actual financial profile still looks like a leveraged large-cap pharma trying to prove that its revenue step-up can translate into durable earnings power. The good news is obvious: revenue has inflected meaningfully, from $28.2B in 2023 to $33.4B in 2024 and $36.8B in 2025, with the last two quarters at $8.62B and $10.05B versus $8.15B and $9.18B a year earlier. That is not a stagnating top line. But the part the market is paying for is not just growth, it is quality of growth, and that is where I think the stock is ahead of itself. Net income was only $4.09B in 2024 before rebounding to $7.71B in 2025, and even within the quarterly run-rate, margins are lurching from 6.9% to 33.3% to 15.6% to 33.7% to 13.5% to 23.6%. A business earning a 27.4x trailing P/E should not have this much earnings noisiness unless investors expect a very strong multi-year pipeline payoff.
The balance sheet is the bigger reason I lean negative. Amgen has $54.6B of debt against just $9.1B of cash and only $8.7B of equity. That makes the 24.4x price-to-book and 6.3x debt-to-equity ratios less a sign of economic magic than of financial leverage and acquisition accounting. Return on equity near 89% looks impressive until you remember the equity base is thin. More importantly, free cash flow of $8.1B against a $210.5B market cap is only about a 3.8% FCF yield. For a company with 2025 operating margin of 24.7%, net margin of 21.0%, and a 2.5% dividend yield with a 66% payout ratio, that is not cheap. At nearly 5.8x sales and 17.9x EV/EBITDA, the stock is priced more like a clean compounder than a company still digesting debt and showing uneven conversion of revenue into profit.
What stands out to me is that the valuation models calling the stock fully priced are directionally right even if they may underappreciate the top-line momentum. The bullish temptation is to annualize the latest quarter: $10.05B of revenue and $2.38B of net income imply a much better earnings base than the trailing annual figures. But even if you do that, you are still paying roughly low-20s earnings for a company whose latest twelve-to-eighteen-month story is partly one of integration, margin dilution, and dependence on execution rather than effortless organic compounding. The market cap bakes in a lot of confidence that the recent 10% revenue growth and 88.5% earnings growth are the start of a sustained earnings reacceleration. I think that is too generous given the quarterly volatility and the relatively ordinary cash yield.
The best argument against my view is that the underlying trajectory may be cleaner than the GAAP numbers imply. Revenue growth has been real and consistent across the recent periods, gross profit rose from $19.7B in 2023 to $24.7B in 2025, operating income improved from $7.26B to $9.08B in 2025, and the latest two quarters show net margins back above 21% and 23%. If that is the new floor rather than a temporary recovery, then trailing P/E is overstating expensiveness because earnings power is resetting higher. A smart bull would also say that 14.4% ROIC for a large biopharma is respectable, current ratio at 1.14 is adequate, and the market is rationally assigning a premium to durability plus pipeline optionality. I weigh that less heavily because the stock is not at 15x earnings or 4x EBITDA where execution upside is free; it is already at a premium multiple with leverage that leaves less room for disappointment.
What would change my mind is simple: if Amgen can turn this revenue base into visibly steadier profitability and cash generation, the current price becomes easier to defend. I would want to see at least two to three more quarters with revenue holding around $9.5B-$10.0B, net margin consistently above 25%, and annualized free cash flow moving toward $10B-$12B rather than $8.1B. I would also want evidence that debt is coming down meaningfully from $54.6B rather than just being serviced. If those numbers show up, a $390 stock is more defensible and perhaps even cheap on forward earnings. If instead margins slip back into the mid-teens or revenue growth slows toward low single digits, the stock should trade closer to the low-$330s or below.
Grok Reading
The raw numbers tell a story of acquisition-fueled expansion colliding with a stretched balance sheet and a valuation that still prices in durability the cash flows have not yet earned. Amgen grew revenue from $28.2B in 2023 to $33.4B in 2024 and $36.8B in 2025, a roughly 14% CAGR that looks impressive until you notice the gross-margin compression from the mid-70s historically to 67.3% and the collapse in equity to just $8.66B against $54.6B of total debt. That leverage is the Horizon hangover; net debt sits near $45B while free cash flow printed only $8.1B in 2025. Recent quarters show the growth engine already decelerating—$10.05B in the June 2026 quarter is up ~9.5% year-over-year versus the prior-year period, and the March quarter managed only ~5.8%. Net income has rebounded to $7.71B for full-year 2025 after the $4.09B trough in 2024, but quarterly margins still whip from 6.9% to 33.7%, underscoring how much noise and one-time items still sit inside the P&L. At $390 the stock trades at 27.4x earnings, 5.75x sales and roughly 26x trailing FCF (EV/FCF closer to 32x once the debt load is acknowledged). Those multiples are rich for a business whose organic runway is now mid-single to low-double-digit and whose ROIC of 14.4% is respectable but not exceptional.
The prior valuation work that lands near $333 fair value is directionally correct; the market is paying a 15–20% premium for pipeline optionality that has not yet shown up in the run-rate numbers. The narrative layer’s claim of “$15B+ free cash flow” is simply wrong—actual FCF is $8.1B—and the 2.5% dividend yield on a 66% payout is ordinary, not fortress-like. Insider activity is pure award noise, offering no signal. What stands out most is the mismatch between a still-elevated multiple and a capital structure that leaves little room for error if biosimilar erosion or pipeline slippage appears.
The strongest counter-argument is that Amgen is executing the post-Horizon integration better than the worst fears: revenue is still compounding above 9% on a trailing basis, operating cash flow remains nearly $10B, and the absolute earnings recovery to $7.7B demonstrates operating leverage once deal costs fade. A bull can also point to the cardiovascular and respiratory assets (Tezepelumab franchise, MariTide/obesity-adjacent programs) as real call options that could re-accelerate growth into the teens and justify a mid-20s earnings multiple in a sector that routinely awards scarcity premiums. ROE above 80% is optically absurd because equity is tiny, yet it does reflect a company that has historically returned capital aggressively. If those pipeline assets convert and debt is paid down at the current FCF clip, today’s price could prove merely full rather than expensive.
I would reverse to a neutral or constructive stance only if two things arrive together: organic revenue growth re-accelerating and holding above 12% for dual consecutive quarters, and clear evidence of net-debt/EBITDA compression below 3x while operating margin expands back through 28%. A single transformative Phase 3 win in the metabolic/CVD franchise that consensus currently under-models would also flip the skew. Until then the risk-reward at $390 is skewed the wrong way.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Amgen is a mature, high-margin drug manufacturer producing consistent free cash flow ($8.10B in 2025, $10.39B in 2024, averaging roughly $8-9B annually across the five-year window). Revenue has compounded from $25.98B (2021) to $36.75B (2025), a ~9% CAGR accelerated by the Horizon acquisition, while diluted share count has actually shrunk (573M to 542M, -1.4% CAGR) with buybacks running ~5.25x SBC — per-share value is being concentrated, not eroded. Earnings quality is clean: OCF/NI of 1.68x, accruals at -4.5% of assets, Beneish M at -2.26. No mechanical red flags. The blemish is the balance sheet. Net debt of roughly $45.5B against only $9.1B liquid cash reflects the Horizon financing, and the Altman Z of 1.94 sits in the grey zone. Gross margin also compressed sharply in 2024 (61.5% vs 75%+ historically) before partially recovering to 67.2%, and net income swung from $6.72B (2023) to $4.09B (2024) to $7.71B (2025) — the volatility is real even if FCF held up. Insider tape is neutral: only routine awards and tax-withholding, no directional open-market activity. This is a durable earner with an unmistakable leverage overhang, not a pristine fortress.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Debt maturity schedule and pace of deleveraging post-Horizon
- Whether 2024 GM compression to 61.5% reflects one-time acquisition accounting or a durable mix shift
- Patent-cliff exposure on top franchises (Enbrel, Prolia, Otezla) and pipeline replacement (MariTide, etc.)
- Segment-level contribution and concentration risk among top drugs
- Reconciliation of 2024 net income drop to $4.09B despite FCF of $10.39B
The e2e synthesis lands at a composite FV of $322.24 and a signal-adjusted FV of $333.15 against a $407.83 print - implying -18% downside, not upside. The DCF ($386.68) is the most generous method and still sits below the current price; the anchored P/E ($344.41) is below price; and the EPV floor at $171.19 shows how much of today's quote depends on continued pipeline execution rather than steady-state earnings. Earnings quality is high, so I am not haircutting deserved value further - but I am also not stretching it. A strong-quality business justifies paying up to fair, not paying 20% through it.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- MariTide Phase 2 obesity readouts and any Phase 3 design/enrollment updates
- Horizon-related net debt paydown pace and interest expense trajectory
- 2025 guidance for Repatha, Prolia biosimilar erosion, and Tezepelumab uptake
- Any goodwill or intangible impairment tied to Horizon in upcoming filings
The news flow is unambiguously positive for AMGN in the last 72 hours: a Q2 earnings smash, a $1B sales outlook hike, and a 4% pop with the stock topping a buy zone. The narrative pressure has swung from 'patent-cliff legacy pharma' toward 'fortress biotech with pipeline optionality delivering', and the market is rewarding it in real time - even as the obesity candidate was abandoned, the story held because growth is showing up in cardio, bone, and rare disease. That is the definition of a strengthening narrative overtaking the bear story. On the tape, the regime is mildly risk-on with the Dow at new highs, which is neutral-to-positive for a low-beta (0.41) defensive pharma - it will not levitate on animal spirits, but it also is not being sold to fund risk assets, and healthcare is quietly getting bid as an earnings-quality trade. Macro headwinds (10y at 4.63%, mkt PE 27.7) are a background drag on all equities but land softly on a 3-4% yielder with low beta and a fortress balance sheet (D/E improving 10.4 to 6.3). Net: the sentiment force pressing on AMGN right now is a moderate tailwind - a fresh, credible earnings-driven narrative refresh in a supportive tape, without the euphoric cult energy that would make it fragile.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Analyst target revisions in the week after the print - are sell-siders raising numbers or fading the guide?
- Whether the post-earnings buy zone breakout holds or fades within 5-10 sessions
- Any biosimilar or Part D pricing headline that could re-open the legacy-drug bear narrative
- Sector rotation signals - if defensives get sold to chase AI/cyclicals, AMGN loses its bid
This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.
When we made this prediction on Aug 6, 2026, AMGN was $407.83. We expect it to be $385.00 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $330.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 6, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.