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AGING Analysis Report
Aug 2, 2026
21 days ago · 100% complete
These price targets were computed from last year's numbers — and this year is going noticeably worse. Projection assumes +100.6% growth but recent quarters show operating income -28.7% YoY (through 2026-06-30) — annual-baselined fair values are likely stale-high. Until the statements catch up, read the growth-based fair values (DCF, anchored) as a best case, not a target; the EPV floor (worth with zero growth assumed) and the current market price are the trustworthy numbers right now.
NOT DEPENDABLE This report predates a filing — its financial basis has been replaced.
Report generated: Aug 2, 2026 · Filing on record since: Aug 19, 2026 · 16 days after
For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page

What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for American Superconductor Corporation (AMSC) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.

Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Low · Gem Score -42 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality -8 · Value -70 · Sentiment 25 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $5.88 vs $29.37 at analysis

Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable reference-name attribute you can cite):

  • profile-header / price-overview — company profile, live quote, market cap
  • extended-analysisthe core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memo
  • future-predictions — our forward price-band predictions
  • market-narrative / ai-findings / gpt-critique — narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)
  • Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers): price-history, income-trend, key-metrics, financials (statement tables), insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.

More for machine readers: site briefing at /llms.txt · any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER · raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds); every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.

American Superconductor Corporation

AMSC NASDAQ
Industrials · Specialty Industrial Machinery
Ayer, MA 01432, United States amsc.com Updated Aug 2, 1:28pm
Price
$29.37
Market Cap
$1.4B
Employees
1,195
Beta
3.22
Avg Volume
844,787
CEO
Mr. Daniel Patrick McGahn

American Superconductor Corporation provides megawatt-scale power resiliency solutions worldwide through its Grid and Wind segments. The Grid segment, under the Gridtec Solutions brand, delivers products and services that enable electric utilities, industrial facilities, and renewable energy project developers to connect, transmit, and distribute power efficiently, reliably, and securely. Key offerings include D-VAR systems for dynamic voltage control and reactive compensation, REG systems for resilient electric grids, VVO systems for volt-var optimization in distribution networks, PQ-IVR systems for critical power solutions, and transmission planning services to address grid congestion, power quality issues, and integration of renewables. In the marine sector via Marinetec, it supplies advanced ship protection systems, such as degaussing systems that reduce naval ships' magnetic signatures for enhanced stealth and efficiency. The Wind segment, through Windtec Solutions, provides electrical control systems, power converters, generators, drivetrains, turbine designs, engineering services, and technology transfer to wind turbine manufacturers, helping lower the cost of wind energy. Founded in 1987 and headquartered near Boston, Massachusetts, with operations across Asia, Australia, Europe, and North America, American Superconductor Corporation plays a vital role in modernizing power infrastructure, supporting renewable integration, and bolstering naval capabilities.

Runs with full report Generated: Aug 2, 2026 1:52pm
Price Overview
Price at report time
$29.37
as of Aug 2, 1:52pm (21d ago)
Change · Aug 2
-0.08 (-0.27%)
Day Range
$29.15 – $31.13
52-Week Range
$24.87 – $70.49
50-Day MA
$39.81
200-Day MA
$38.51
Volume
660,800.00
Right now · live
Log in to get the live feed
Members see the real-time price and the move since this report (over 21d).
Share Structure
Outstanding 47,632,340.00
Float 46,049,941.00
Free Float 96.7%
High free float — 96.7% of shares trade freely, ~3.3% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 2:04pm (21d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 2:04pm (21d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
TD Twelve Data statement HEX SEC filing
Industry comparison last run: Aug 2, 2026 1:50pm
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
HEX
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
9.63
Stock Price: $29.37
EPS (Diluted): 3.05
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
HEX
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
2.32
Stock Price: $29.37
Total Equity: $555.45M
Shares: 43,902,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
HEX
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
Market Cap: $1.42B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $140.69M
EBITDA: N/A
EBITDA not available
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
HEX
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$1.3B
Market Cap: $1.42B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $140.69M
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
HEX
Gross Profit / Revenue
30.5%
Gross Profit: $91.38M
Revenue: $299.16M
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
HEX
Operating Income / Revenue
3.8%
Operating Income: $11.45M
Revenue: $299.16M
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
HEX
Net Income / Revenue
44.7%
Net Income: $133.81M
Revenue: $299.16M
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
HEX
Net Income / Total Equity
24.1%
Net Income: $133.81M
Total Equity: $555.45M
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
HEX
NOPAT / Invested Capital
22.0%
Operating Income: $11.45M
Tax Rate: -699.0%
Equity: $555.45M
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $140.69M
Zero debt — invested capital = equity minus cash (very efficient)
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
HEX
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
2.39
Current Assets: $331.74M
Current Liabilities: $138.53M
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
HEX
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.00
Short-Term Debt: $0.00
Long-Term Debt: $0.00
Total Debt: $0.00
Total Equity: $555.45M
Zero debt — this company carries no debt obligations. Strongest possible score.
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
HEX
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$6.81
Revenue: $299.16M
Shares: 43,902,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
HEX
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$12.65
Total Equity: $555.45M
Shares: 43,902,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
HEX
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$0.42
Operating CF: $23.15M
CapEx: -$4.89M
Shares: 43,902,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
TD
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
Last Dividend: $0.00
Stock Price: $29.37
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
HEX
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $133.81M
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Aug 2, 2026 1:50pm
Compares AMSC against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 2:04pm (21d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Revenue $108.4M $106.0M $145.6M $222.8M $299.2M
Cost of Revenue $94.9M $97.5M $110.4M $161.0M $207.8M
Gross Profit $13.5M $8.5M $35.3M $61.9M $91.4M
Operating Expenses $34.6M $41.5M $46.7M $62.9M $79.9M
Operating Income -$21.1M -$33.0M -$11.4M -$1.1M $11.4M
Net Income -$19.2M -$35.0M -$11.1M $6.0M $133.8M
EBITDA -$18.4M -$30.4M -$6.9M $4.5M
EPS $-0.71 $-1.26 $-0.37 $0.16 $3.12
EPS (Diluted) $-0.71 $-1.26 $-0.37 $0.16 $3.05
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 1:40pm (21d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Cash & Equivalents $40.6M $23.4M $90.5M $79.5M $140.7M
Total Current Assets $94.3M $106.2M $166.5M $206.5M $331.7M
Total Assets $173.9M $175.6M $232.8M $310.5M $739.5M
Current Liabilities $54.0M $84.1M $78.8M $99.8M $138.5M
Long-Term Debt $90,000 $15,000 $0
Total Liabilities $64.5M $93.8M $88.2M $113.4M $184.0M
Total Equity $109.4M $81.8M $144.6M $197.1M $555.4M
Retained Earnings -$1.0B -$1.1B -$1.1B -$1.1B -$926.8M
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 2:04pm (21d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Operating Cash Flow -$19.0M -$22.5M $2.1M $28.3M $23.1M
Capital Expenditure $-938,000 -$1.2M $-934,000 -$2.4M -$4.9M
Free Cash Flow -$19.9M -$23.7M $1.2M $25.9M $18.3M
Acquisitions (net) $0 -$29.6M -$72.1M
Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) $-53,000 $-73,000 $-65,000 $-25,000 -$8.8M
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks $0 $-126,000 $0
Net Change in Cash -$26.1M -$23.8M $66.6M -$6.9M $62.2M
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 2:04pm (21d ago)
Metric 2023 2024 2025 2026
Revenue Growth -2.3% +37.4% +53.0% +34.3%
Gross Profit Growth -36.8% +314.1% +75.3% +47.7%
Operating Income Growth -56.5% +65.6% +90.5% +1,162.7%
Net Income Growth -82.6% +68.3% +154.3% +2,118.0%
EBITDA Growth -65.4% +77.4% +165.2%
0Company Classification 1Industry Landscape 2Company Momentum 3Forward Projection 4aDCF Valuation 4bEarnings Power Value 4cAnchored PE 4dReverse DCF 4eRevenue-Based DCF 4fAnchored P/S 4gScenario Analysis 4hDividend Discount Model 4iBook Value Analysis 4jInsider Activity 4fCash Flow Quality 4gDebt Maturity Risk 4hMacro Environment 4iSector Intelligence 4jRevenue Confidence 4kSensitivity Analysis 4lSector Demand Cycle 5AI Investigation 5bThesis Evaluation 6Valuation Synthesis
computed not applicable 18 computed · 6 not applicable
Risk : Reward — if the last quarter repeats
Live · as of 2026-08-19 08:29
4.3 : 1 recovery upside vs repeat-quarter downside
Recovery pays +102%; another quarter like the worst recent one costs 24%. Ratio 4.3:1.
CaseGrowthMarginFair valuevs price ($29.37)
Bull — recovery +53% 35.0% $59.43 +102%
Base — stabilizes +35% 35.0% $38.55 +31%
Bear — keeps slipping +18% 35.0% $24.14 -18%
Stress — last quarter repeats +30% 21.3% $22.36 -24%
The next quarters keep the trajectory of the worst recent matched quarter (ending 2026-03-31) — growth stays at 29.6% and margins bend by the same profit-vs-revenue ratio (×0.50). Stress is a trajectory, not a prediction — it answers "what if the ship's current heading simply continues," which history says is the case to respect.
Why this is appearing: this company files quarterly, so its recent trajectory could be measured rather than assumed — the engine matched Jun 2026 against the same quarter one year earlier and found revenue +30.0% · operating income +74.2% · net income +41.1% year-over-year. That measured heading is what the stress case extends forward. Of those, the stress case extends the worst matched quarter — the one ending Mar 31, 2026 (revenue +29.6%, operating income -131.7% YoY) — not the average. Data measured through Jun 30, 2026 — this card recalculates automatically when the next quarterly filing is ingested. Companies without quarterly filings (many foreign listings) never show this card: with no measured trajectory, there is nothing honest to repeat.
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for AMSC — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
Independent analyst synthesis · claude-opus-4-7 · generated 2026-08-02 14:03:56
Verdict Overvalued on normalized earnings — fair value $22-26 vs $29.37; synthesis composite is corrupted by a one-time $120M tax benefit and overstates upside. Wait for a pullback or a clean non-tax-inflated quarter.

Looking at the raw quarterly print first: revenue has genuinely inflected — $40.3M in Jun-2024 to $86.4M in Mar-2026, a 2.1x in seven quarters, with sequential acceleration ($65.9M → $72.4M → $86.4M in the last three). That's real, not a tax artifact. But strip out the Dec-2025 quarter's $117.8M net income (which is preposterous on $74.5M revenue — clearly the deferred tax asset release), and the other three quarters of FY2026 sum to roughly $16M of net income on $226.8M revenue, or ~7% net margin. Annualized, that's ~$21M of "real" earnings, putting the stock at ~67x normalized earnings, not the 9.6x headline PE. Gross margin at 30.5% is the more durable signal — it's tripled from FY2023's 8% and reflects mix shift into Gridtec/NEPSI. Operating margin of 3.8% on the full year is the honest number, and it's positive for the first time in years but hardly rich.

The synthesis verdict of "fair value" with a $43-65 anchor is where I dissent hardest. That composite is being polluted by the GAAP net income line — any PE-based method applied to $133.8M of NI is garbage-in-garbage-out. Market Forces gets this right: normalized EPS is closer to $0.40-0.50, not $3.12. At $29.37 on ~$0.45 normalized EPS you're paying ~65x for a project-lumpy industrial with a credibility history of missing margin targets. The Thesis Evaluation's -9 score and the Market Narrative layer (bear mass > bull mass, moderate durability, credibility deficit) are directionally more honest than the DCF composite claiming +122% upside. The pre-flight tag of "deep-value" is simply wrong — this trades at 4.8x sales and ~4.3x EV/revenue; deep value it is not. Mature Earner classification is also miscalibrated — one year of positive operating income after four years of losses is not "mature."

The contrarian case for owning it anyway: revenue CAGR of 43% with FCF now positive ($18.3M FY26), $140.7M cash, zero debt, and genuine tailwinds from grid interconnection queues (which are multi-year backlogged in the US). If Gridtec bookings continue accelerating and NEPSI integration delivers, FY2027 revenue could run $380-420M at 8-10% operating margins, producing $30-40M operating income and justifying something like $22-28 fair value on a 20-25x forward multiple. The problem is that's roughly where the stock already trades — meaning the market has already given credit for continued execution. Insider selling on ten separate transactions in June 2026, right after the tax windfall quarter and the run-up, is exactly what you'd expect from management cashing out into narrative strength; it's not dispositive but it rhymes with the bear read.

Where I'd flag data thinness: the quarterly earnings trajectory ex-tax-item is not shown cleanly anywhere; the $117.8M Dec-25 NI needs to be explicitly netted out before any multiple is computed, and none of the models except Market Forces did this cleanly. Revenue "deceleration" flag from Secondary Signals is wrong — sequential Q/Q growth accelerated in the latest print. The Navy-contract-dependency claim from Thesis Evaluation needs sourcing; if true it's damning, but I can't verify it from this file. Debt-to-equity of zero and current ratio 2.4 are the only truly bulletproof positives — this company will not go bankrupt, which caps downside meaningfully. Fair value on my normalized math is $22-26, so at $29.37 you're paying a ~15-25% premium to fundamentals for optionality on the grid-modernization narrative continuing to deliver. Not a short (balance sheet is too clean, tailwind is real), but not a buy at this price. I'd want $22 or a clean quarter without one-timers before committing.

GPT Reading
Independent reading · gpt-5.4 · generated 2026-08-02 14:04:11
Verdict Fairly valued to slightly overvalued at $29.37 — the operating turnaround is real, but normalized earnings power looks far below the headline 9.6x P/E; I’d need proof of 7%-10% operating margins to support $30+.

The raw numbers say AMSC is a real operating turnaround, but not the one the headline P/E implies. Revenue has compounded from $106.0M in FY2023 to $299.2M in FY2026, with the last four quarters at $66.7M, $72.4M, $65.9M, and $74.5M before stepping up again to $86.4M in the latest quarter. That is not a promotional story; it is actual top-line scale-up. Gross profit has improved even faster, from $8.5M three years ago to $91.4M, lifting gross margin from 8.0% to 30.6%. Just as important, this is no longer a balance-sheet survival case: AMSC has $140.7M of cash, no debt, positive operating income of $11.4M, operating cash flow of $23.1M, and $18.3M of free cash flow. The company has crossed from “maybe viable” to “commercially functioning industrial business.”

But the valuation argument gets distorted if you take the reported FY2026 net income of $133.8M at face value. The quarterly pattern gives it away: one quarter posted $117.8M of net income on just $74.5M of revenue, a 158% net margin, while the surrounding quarters were normal-ish at 1.8%, 9.3%, 7.2%, and 5.2% net margins. So the canonical 9.6x P/E and 44.7% net margin are close to useless for judging recurring earnings power. On an operating basis, the business earned $11.4M EBIT on $299.2M of sales, just a 3.8% operating margin. Even if I generously normalize tax and below-the-line items, this looks like a company currently capable of maybe mid-single-digit net margins, not 40%-plus. At a $1.42B market cap and 4.3x sales, the market is not paying for a busted microcap anymore; it is paying for a company that can keep compounding revenue at 20%+ and convert today’s 30% gross margin into substantially better operating leverage than has yet shown up.

That is where I part company with the more bullish valuation outputs. If I put a realistic frame around the business—say $320M-$360M of near-term revenue, 5%-8% operating margin once scale and mix improve, and continued positive cash generation—the current price already discounts a lot of that success. On $350M of revenue, an 8% operating margin would be $28M of operating income; even with a clean balance sheet, that does not scream cheap at $1.42B. The strongest fact in the whole file is not the tax-boosted earnings figure but the spread between gross margin and operating margin: 30.6% gross margin sounds attractive, yet only 3.8% makes it through at the operating line. That tells me either SG&A/R&D intensity remains structurally high, or the revenue base is still too lumpy to absorb overhead efficiently. Either way, I do not see enough evidence yet for the stock to deserve a premium multiple on normalized earnings.

The best counterargument is straightforward and serious: the business has improved on almost every line that matters, and turnarounds often look expensive right before the margin inflection becomes obvious. Revenue doubled in two years, gross profit nearly tripled from $35.3M in FY2024 to $91.4M in FY2026, quarterly revenue has risen from $40.3M to $86.4M in seven quarters, and cash generation is now real rather than optical. If management can hold gross margin around 30% while growing into the cost base, operating margins could plausibly move from 3.8% toward 10% faster than skeptics expect. In that case, today’s 4.3x sales would not be outrageous for a debt-free grid-exposure compounder. I also would not overread the recent insider sales without size relative to holdings or whether they were option-related; they are a yellow flag, not a thesis by themselves.

What would change my mind is simple: I need to see that the latest $86.4M quarter is not just volume growth but the start of durable operating leverage. If AMSC can deliver two or three more quarters with revenue above $80M, gross margin staying near 30%, and operating margin moving into the 7%-10% range without help from one-offs, then the stock deserves a higher normalized earnings framework and I would get constructive even above $29. Conversely, if revenue slips back into the mid-$60Ms/$70Ms or gross margin retreats toward the low-20s, then this is a project-lumpy industrial with overstated earnings quality and the shares should trade much lower, likely closer to 2x-3x sales.

Grok Reading
Independent reading · grok-4.5 · generated 2026-08-02 14:04:58
Verdict Overvalued at $29.37 — normalized ~80x FCF/earnings on still-thin 3.8% op. margins; wait for sub-$20 or proven 10%+ op. margin

The headline PE of 9.6x is a mirage. FY2026 net income of $133.8M embeds a roughly $118M one-time item in the December quarter (158% net margin on $74.5M revenue); strip that out and you are looking at roughly $15–20M of underlying net income and only $11.4M of operating income on $299.2M of sales—an operating margin of 3.8%. At a $1.42B enterprise value that is roughly 75–95x normalized earnings and about 78x the $18.3M of free cash flow actually generated. Revenue growth itself is the genuine bright spot: the top line has nearly tripled from $106M in FY2023 to $299M, gross margin has structurally lifted from the high-single-digits to 30.5%, and the balance sheet is fortress-clean ($141M cash, zero debt, current ratio 2.4). But the market is already paying 4.3x sales for a project-based specialty industrial whose quarterly revenue is decelerating and whose operating leverage has yet to appear outside a non-recurring windfall.

The story the numbers tell is therefore a real but incomplete turnaround: Grid/Gridtec mix shift and grid-hardening demand are converting into higher gross profit dollars ($91M versus $35M two years earlier), yet opex is still consuming almost all of that gross profit. Insider behavior reinforces skepticism—ten open-market sales in a single week of June 2026 with zero purchases. When management and directors are systematically lightening up immediately after the year that produced the tax-gain inflated EPS of ~$3.12, the signal is that they do not view the current run-rate as the new normal. Secondary flags (unusual selling, decelerating quarterly revenue trend, macro headwinds) line up with the same conclusion.

The strongest counter-argument is straightforward and quantitative. A 43% revenue CAGR, a clean jump to positive FCF, and a debt-free balance sheet with nearly half a turn of cash relative to market cap are not the hallmarks of a failed company. If gross margins hold near 30% and operating expenses grow slower than sales, a path to 10–12% operating margins on a $350–400M revenue base produces $35–50M of EBIT within two years—enough to make today’s multiple look merely elevated rather than absurd. The valuation synthesis composite at $43–65 implicitly assumes exactly that trajectory, and the grid-interconnection bottleneck is a genuine, multi-year secular tailwind that ABB and Siemens cannot fully saturate. That case is coherent; I simply weight the earnings-quality distortion and the insider distribution more heavily than the DCF upside, because AMSC has a multi-year history of over-promising margin expansion that never quite arrived on schedule.

I would flip to constructive on two concrete developments: (1) two consecutive quarters of operating margin at or above 10% with no one-time items, proving the gross-margin gains are dropping through, and (2) announcement of multi-year utility or Navy framework agreements that visibly refill the backlog enough to re-accelerate organic revenue above 25%. Until then the stock at $29.37 is pricing a durability of earnings power that the clean numbers do not yet support.

Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Each AI above independently stated a direction (undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued) and how strongly it believes it (conviction, 0–5). We combine those into a Bull-Bear Index on a 0–10 scale: 5 is neutral, 10 is maximum bullish (undervalued at full conviction), 0 is maximum bearish. We compute the score ourselves with the same arithmetic for every seat — the models never grade their own bullishness — so the three are directly comparable. Δ shows how far each seat sits from the panel average of 2.7; a large Δ marks the dissenting voice, usually the one worth reading.
Claude claude-opus-4-7 2.0
overvalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ -0.7 vs panel · self: 4.0
GPT gpt-5.4 5.0
fairly valued · conviction 4/5 · Δ +2.3 vs panel · self: 4.0
Grok grok-4.5 1.0
overvalued · conviction 4/5 · Δ -1.7 vs panel · self: 3.0
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-08-02 21:26:28
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality-but-rich — pass, revisit sub-$20 7/10
Real turnaround, but the tape has already paid for five more years of execution — I pass here and wait for a low-$20s handle or lower.
The cruxWhether the 3.8% operating margin is a floor that expands to 8-10%, or a ceiling flattered by a one-time tax gain — the whole $29 price rests on that answer, and we have two years of data, not five.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from AMSC's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionHeavy Dilution
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The four lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
-8
Mixed
edge √Σ 100 · risk √Σ 108 · conf 6/10

AMSC has executed a striking operational turnaround: revenue grew from $108M (2022) to $299M (2026), gross margin expanded from 12.4% to 30.5%, and operating margin flipped from -19.4% to +3.8%. FCF turned positive in 2024 and reached $18.3M in 2026, with OCF/NI of 1.26x and modestly negative accruals (-1% of assets) supporting good earnings quality. The balance sheet is clean: $140.7M liquid cash, no net debt, Altman Z of 3.65. Net income of $133.8M in 2026 is far above operating income and likely reflects a large one-off item (deferred tax asset release or similar) — the underlying operating earnings power is more like the low single-digit margin the income statement shows. The concerning side is per-share value stewardship. Diluted share count went from 27.2M to 43.9M — a 12.7% CAGR — with SBC at 5.3% of revenue and buybacks recovering just 0.3%. That materially dilutes shareholders even as the business improves. Insider behavior compounds the concern: 31 sells vs 1 tiny buy in the last 12 months, with the CEO (McGahn) and Kosiba selling repeatedly in June 2026 in clustered lots. The Beneish M of -0.89 also warrants a look given the margin ramp, though other integrity signals are clean. Net: a mature-earner classification is generous — this is a business that just crossed into sustained profitability. Fundamentals are improving fast, but the durability, moat depth, and management's capital discipline are unproven at this scale.

Strengths 3
m70
Operational inflection is real
Revenue nearly tripled from $108M to $299M over four years, gross margin expanded ~18 points to 30.5%, and operating margin turned positive at +3.8%. Cash generation followed: FCF from -$19.9M to +$18.3M.
m55
Fortress liquidity, no debt
$140.7M cash equals net cash (9.9% of market cap), Altman Z 3.65 in the safe zone. Survival math is not a question.
m45
Clean earnings-to-cash conversion
OCF/NI 1.26x and accruals -1% of assets indicate reported earnings are backed by cash. Adjust for the likely one-time tax benefit driving $133.8M net income and cash quality still looks solid.
Concerns 5
m70
Heavy dilution erodes per-share value
Diluted shares grew from 27.2M to 43.9M (12.7% CAGR) with SBC at 5.3% of revenue and near-zero buybacks. The business is compounding faster than per-share metrics.
m55
Concentrated, unusual insider selling
31 sells vs 1 token buy in 12 months, with CEO McGahn and Kosiba unloading in clustered June 2026 tranches totaling over $2M just in the visible tape. Pattern flagged as unusual vs history.
m40
Net income flattered by non-operating item
2026 net income $133.8M vs operating income roughly $11M on 3.8% op margin — suggests a large tax or one-time gain. Underlying operating earnings power is modest and newly established.
m30
Beneish M-score flag
M-score of -0.89 exceeds the -1.78 threshold. Not proof of manipulation, but with rapid margin expansion and receivables/inventory growth possibilities, worth scrutiny.
m35
Moat and durability unproven
Two years of positive operating margin after a decade-plus of losses is not yet a track record. Specialty industrial machinery with grid/wind exposure — durability of the recent order momentum is not established in the data.
This is a business that has genuinely turned the corner - revenue up 2.8x in four years, margins actually positive, cash generation real. I respect that. But I am not ready to call it Strong. Two years of thin operating profitability after chronic losses is a start, not a track record, and the $133.8M net income is clearly inflated by something non-operating I cannot see. What bothers me most is per-share stewardship: 12.7% annual share growth with essentially zero offset from buybacks means holders are being diluted at a pace that eats into the improvement. Layer on 31 insider sales against one nominal buy - including the CEO repeatedly - and management's own read on the business seems ambivalent at best. Solid finances, improving trajectory, unproven durability, poor per-share discipline. Mixed is the honest word.
Verify before trusting this (6)
  • Composition of 2026 net income - identify the size of any deferred tax benefit or one-time gain vs recurring earnings
  • Customer concentration in the 10-K (Inox Wind and other grid/wind customers) - is revenue growth broad or dependent on one or two names
  • Backlog and order book disclosure to assess durability of the revenue ramp
  • SBC vesting schedules and any 10b5-1 plans behind the June 2026 insider cluster
  • Receivables and inventory trends underlying the Beneish flag
  • Any acquisition-driven revenue (Neeltran, NWL) vs organic growth
Valuation / Mispricing
-70
Rich
edge √Σ 20 · risk √Σ 107 · conf 7/10
Price $29.37 vs sober deserved value ~$15-22 (weighting DCF $7.70 and EPV $3 heavily, anchored-PE $156 lightly given inflated earnings) — roughly 30-50% overvalued. attractive below $18.00

The e2e composite fair value of $43.60 and signal-adjusted $65.18 are almost entirely carried by an anchored-PE method printing $156 — which is absurd given a $133.8M net income line the quality lens itself flags as non-operating-inflated. Strip that out and the sober valuation methods disagree violently with the tape: DCF $7.70 and EPV floor $3.00 both sit at roughly 10-25% of the $29.37 price. Even splitting the difference generously between the anchored multiple and the cash-flow methods lands you in the low-$20s at best.

Cheap signals 1
m20
Real revenue inflection is real
Revenue 2.8x in four years and positive margins support some premium to EPV — but not to $29 when DCF is $7.70.
Rich / priced-in 4
m70
DCF and EPV both far below price
DCF $7.70 and EPV floor $3.00 vs $29.37 price — the two cash-flow-based methods say the business earns nowhere near what today's cap requires.
m55
Anchored-PE is a runaway input
The $156 anchored-PE fair value is built on $133.8M net income the quality lens explicitly says is inflated by non-operating items — this single method is dragging the composite up and should be heavily discounted.
m45
Priced for turnaround durability
Two years of thin op profitability after chronic losses is being extrapolated into a permanent franchise. Bear case notes repeated margin misses and Tier-1 competition.
m40
Dilution and insider selling
Quality lens flags heavy dilution and aggressive insider selling — both silently lower deserved per-share value and signal insiders don't see the upside the tape does.
I don't buy this here. The composite fair value is a mirage built on an anchored-PE using earnings the quality work itself calls inflated — the honest methods (DCF $7.70, EPV $3) say the business is worth a fraction of $29.37. It's a real turnaround, but the tape has already paid for five more years of execution that hasn't happened yet. I need this below $18 before the price stops asking me to underwrite heroics; ideally low teens.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • What drove the $133.8M net income — tax benefit, one-time gain, or genuine operating leverage
  • Segment margin trajectory in grid vs wind
  • Share count trajectory and any pending equity issuance
  • Backlog quality and customer concentration
General Sentiment
+25
Tailwind
tail √Σ 92 · head √Σ 66 · conf 6/10

Sentiment pressure on AMSC is net positive but not euphoric. The narrative is a moderate-intensity, moderate-durability turnaround/grid-modernization story - not a cult trade, but the tape has been rewarding the thesis: 43% CAGR, +52pp over three years, and a record-revenue annual meeting headline just days before the Q1 print on Aug 5. That is a classic setup where narrative momentum and a fresh catalyst do the pushing, independent of whether the DCF gap ever closes. With beta 3.22, this name is a leveraged bet on the tape's direction, and today's tape is mildly risk-on (regime +22, VIX 16, S&P near highs) - that amplifies the tailwind. The July 21 unexplained 3.6% pop also hints at quiet accumulation into the print. Offsets are real but secondary: recent 34% trails the 43% long-term run, so momentum is decelerating; macro carries a headwind from 4.68% 10y and a 26.9 market PE that punishes small-cap high-beta names first if the tape rolls; and one recent piece flagged the growth-valuation risk directly. Analyst tone is not provided, which caps confidence. Net: a moderate tailwind driven by narrative plus imminent catalyst, sitting on a beta that will magnify whichever way the tape breaks.

Tailwinds 3
m62
Grid-modernization narrative with catalyst on deck
Turnaround/grid-TAM story is moderate intensity and durability, and Aug 5 Q1 print plus record-revenue annual meeting headline give the story a near-term proof point the tape can rally into.
m55
Strong multi-year momentum still intact
43% CAGR and +52pp over three years means the tape has been actively rewarding this name; trend-followers and momentum funds are structurally long here.
m40
Risk-on tape amplified by 3.22 beta
Regime +22 with VIX 16 and S&P near highs is a mild tailwind for equities generally, but a 3.22 beta turns 'mild' into 'meaningful' for AMSC specifically.
Headwinds 3
m45
Momentum is decelerating
Recent 34% trails the 43% long-term - the narrative is not accelerating, and moderate (not high) intensity means one earnings miss could flip sentiment quickly on a stock this jumpy.
m38
Rates and market PE punish high-beta small caps first
10y at 4.68% and market PE 26.9 mean any risk-off flinch hits high-beta unprofitable-turnaround names hardest; beta 3.22 is a double-edged sword if the tape rolls.
m30
Growth-stock skepticism in the news flow
A published piece explicitly questioning whether AMSC's growth justifies its multiple is exactly the kind of framing that primes a sell-the-news reaction to Q1.
Net tailwind, but a fragile one. The story is working, momentum is still positive, and a calm tape leveraged by 3.22 beta is doing real work pushing this higher into a defined catalyst. But this is a moderate-intensity narrative, not a cult - one soft print on Aug 5 and the same beta that's helping today becomes the whip that drives it down 15% in a session. I lean tailwind into the print with eyes wide open on what happens right after.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Aug 5 Q1 print - beat/miss and margin trajectory will either validate or crack the turnaround narrative
  • Any analyst target revisions post-print (tone data was missing here)
  • Whether VIX holds sub-18 and S&P holds recent highs - a regime flip would hit beta 3.22 hard
  • Sector rotation flows in grid/renewable infrastructure names as a read-through
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
Growth Outlook
not run

This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.

The forward growth verdict — is the business itself likely to grow (next 2 quarters / year 1 / years 2–3), judged against its category and against printed expectations. The full horizon ladder + creme renders on the Growth Outlook card above. Not a call on the price (Valuation owns that) or the tape (Sentiment owns that).
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Lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure), and Growth Outlook (the forward growth verdict). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
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My Notes personal — only you see this
v1.1.562 · 9b2927c4 · 2026-08-22 16:52:06