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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for American Superconductor Corporation (AMSC) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Low · Gem Score -42 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality -8 · Value -70 · Sentiment 25 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $5.88 vs $29.37 at analysis
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profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
price-history,income-trend,key-metrics,financials(statement tables),insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.
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raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds);
every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.
American Superconductor Corporation
AMSC NASDAQAmerican Superconductor Corporation provides megawatt-scale power resiliency solutions worldwide through its Grid and Wind segments. The Grid segment, under the Gridtec Solutions brand, delivers products and services that enable electric utilities, industrial facilities, and renewable energy project developers to connect, transmit, and distribute power efficiently, reliably, and securely. Key offerings include D-VAR systems for dynamic voltage control and reactive compensation, REG systems for resilient electric grids, VVO systems for volt-var optimization in distribution networks, PQ-IVR systems for critical power solutions, and transmission planning services to address grid congestion, power quality issues, and integration of renewables. In the marine sector via Marinetec, it supplies advanced ship protection systems, such as degaussing systems that reduce naval ships' magnetic signatures for enhanced stealth and efficiency. The Wind segment, through Windtec Solutions, provides electrical control systems, power converters, generators, drivetrains, turbine designs, engineering services, and technology transfer to wind turbine manufacturers, helping lower the cost of wind energy. Founded in 1987 and headquartered near Boston, Massachusetts, with operations across Asia, Australia, Europe, and North America, American Superconductor Corporation plays a vital role in modernizing power infrastructure, supporting renewable integration, and bolstering naval capabilities.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 3.05
Total Equity: $555.45M
Shares: 43,902,000
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $140.69M
EBITDA: N/A
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $140.69M
Revenue: $299.16M
Revenue: $299.16M
Revenue: $299.16M
Total Equity: $555.45M
Tax Rate: -699.0%
Equity: $555.45M
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $140.69M
Current Liabilities: $138.53M
Long-Term Debt: $0.00
Total Debt: $0.00
Total Equity: $555.45M
Shares: 43,902,000
Shares: 43,902,000
CapEx: -$4.89M
Shares: 43,902,000
Stock Price: $29.37
Net Income: $133.81M
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 2:04pm (21d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $108.4M | $106.0M | $145.6M | $222.8M | $299.2M |
| Cost of Revenue | $94.9M | $97.5M | $110.4M | $161.0M | $207.8M |
| Gross Profit | $13.5M | $8.5M | $35.3M | $61.9M | $91.4M |
| Operating Expenses | $34.6M | $41.5M | $46.7M | $62.9M | $79.9M |
| Operating Income | -$21.1M | -$33.0M | -$11.4M | -$1.1M | $11.4M |
| Net Income | -$19.2M | -$35.0M | -$11.1M | $6.0M | $133.8M |
| EBITDA | -$18.4M | -$30.4M | -$6.9M | $4.5M | — |
| EPS | $-0.71 | $-1.26 | $-0.37 | $0.16 | $3.12 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-0.71 | $-1.26 | $-0.37 | $0.16 | $3.05 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 1:40pm (21d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $40.6M | $23.4M | $90.5M | $79.5M | $140.7M |
| Total Current Assets | $94.3M | $106.2M | $166.5M | $206.5M | $331.7M |
| Total Assets | $173.9M | $175.6M | $232.8M | $310.5M | $739.5M |
| Current Liabilities | $54.0M | $84.1M | $78.8M | $99.8M | $138.5M |
| Long-Term Debt | $90,000 | $15,000 | $0 | — | — |
| Total Liabilities | $64.5M | $93.8M | $88.2M | $113.4M | $184.0M |
| Total Equity | $109.4M | $81.8M | $144.6M | $197.1M | $555.4M |
| Retained Earnings | -$1.0B | -$1.1B | -$1.1B | -$1.1B | -$926.8M |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 2:04pm (21d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | -$19.0M | -$22.5M | $2.1M | $28.3M | $23.1M |
| Capital Expenditure | $-938,000 | -$1.2M | $-934,000 | -$2.4M | -$4.9M |
| Free Cash Flow | -$19.9M | -$23.7M | $1.2M | $25.9M | $18.3M |
| Acquisitions (net) | — | — | $0 | -$29.6M | -$72.1M |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | $-53,000 | $-73,000 | $-65,000 | $-25,000 | -$8.8M |
| Dividends Paid | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stock Buybacks | — | — | $0 | $-126,000 | $0 |
| Net Change in Cash | -$26.1M | -$23.8M | $66.6M | -$6.9M | $62.2M |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 2:04pm (21d ago)| Metric | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | -2.3% | +37.4% | +53.0% | +34.3% |
| Gross Profit Growth | -36.8% | +314.1% | +75.3% | +47.7% |
| Operating Income Growth | -56.5% | +65.6% | +90.5% | +1,162.7% |
| Net Income Growth | -82.6% | +68.3% | +154.3% | +2,118.0% |
| EBITDA Growth | -65.4% | +77.4% | +165.2% | — |
Deep Analysis
Risk : Reward — if the last quarter repeats
Live · as of 2026-08-19 08:29Recovery pays +102%; another quarter like the worst recent one costs 24%. Ratio 4.3:1.
| Case | Growth | Margin | Fair value | vs price ($29.37) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull — recovery | +53% | 35.0% | $59.43 | +102% |
| Base — stabilizes | +35% | 35.0% | $38.55 | +31% |
| Bear — keeps slipping | +18% | 35.0% | $24.14 | -18% |
| Stress — last quarter repeats | +30% | 21.3% | $22.36 | -24% |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
Looking at the raw quarterly print first: revenue has genuinely inflected — $40.3M in Jun-2024 to $86.4M in Mar-2026, a 2.1x in seven quarters, with sequential acceleration ($65.9M → $72.4M → $86.4M in the last three). That's real, not a tax artifact. But strip out the Dec-2025 quarter's $117.8M net income (which is preposterous on $74.5M revenue — clearly the deferred tax asset release), and the other three quarters of FY2026 sum to roughly $16M of net income on $226.8M revenue, or ~7% net margin. Annualized, that's ~$21M of "real" earnings, putting the stock at ~67x normalized earnings, not the 9.6x headline PE. Gross margin at 30.5% is the more durable signal — it's tripled from FY2023's 8% and reflects mix shift into Gridtec/NEPSI. Operating margin of 3.8% on the full year is the honest number, and it's positive for the first time in years but hardly rich.
The synthesis verdict of "fair value" with a $43-65 anchor is where I dissent hardest. That composite is being polluted by the GAAP net income line — any PE-based method applied to $133.8M of NI is garbage-in-garbage-out. Market Forces gets this right: normalized EPS is closer to $0.40-0.50, not $3.12. At $29.37 on ~$0.45 normalized EPS you're paying ~65x for a project-lumpy industrial with a credibility history of missing margin targets. The Thesis Evaluation's -9 score and the Market Narrative layer (bear mass > bull mass, moderate durability, credibility deficit) are directionally more honest than the DCF composite claiming +122% upside. The pre-flight tag of "deep-value" is simply wrong — this trades at 4.8x sales and ~4.3x EV/revenue; deep value it is not. Mature Earner classification is also miscalibrated — one year of positive operating income after four years of losses is not "mature."
The contrarian case for owning it anyway: revenue CAGR of 43% with FCF now positive ($18.3M FY26), $140.7M cash, zero debt, and genuine tailwinds from grid interconnection queues (which are multi-year backlogged in the US). If Gridtec bookings continue accelerating and NEPSI integration delivers, FY2027 revenue could run $380-420M at 8-10% operating margins, producing $30-40M operating income and justifying something like $22-28 fair value on a 20-25x forward multiple. The problem is that's roughly where the stock already trades — meaning the market has already given credit for continued execution. Insider selling on ten separate transactions in June 2026, right after the tax windfall quarter and the run-up, is exactly what you'd expect from management cashing out into narrative strength; it's not dispositive but it rhymes with the bear read.
Where I'd flag data thinness: the quarterly earnings trajectory ex-tax-item is not shown cleanly anywhere; the $117.8M Dec-25 NI needs to be explicitly netted out before any multiple is computed, and none of the models except Market Forces did this cleanly. Revenue "deceleration" flag from Secondary Signals is wrong — sequential Q/Q growth accelerated in the latest print. The Navy-contract-dependency claim from Thesis Evaluation needs sourcing; if true it's damning, but I can't verify it from this file. Debt-to-equity of zero and current ratio 2.4 are the only truly bulletproof positives — this company will not go bankrupt, which caps downside meaningfully. Fair value on my normalized math is $22-26, so at $29.37 you're paying a ~15-25% premium to fundamentals for optionality on the grid-modernization narrative continuing to deliver. Not a short (balance sheet is too clean, tailwind is real), but not a buy at this price. I'd want $22 or a clean quarter without one-timers before committing.
GPT Reading
The raw numbers say AMSC is a real operating turnaround, but not the one the headline P/E implies. Revenue has compounded from $106.0M in FY2023 to $299.2M in FY2026, with the last four quarters at $66.7M, $72.4M, $65.9M, and $74.5M before stepping up again to $86.4M in the latest quarter. That is not a promotional story; it is actual top-line scale-up. Gross profit has improved even faster, from $8.5M three years ago to $91.4M, lifting gross margin from 8.0% to 30.6%. Just as important, this is no longer a balance-sheet survival case: AMSC has $140.7M of cash, no debt, positive operating income of $11.4M, operating cash flow of $23.1M, and $18.3M of free cash flow. The company has crossed from “maybe viable” to “commercially functioning industrial business.”
But the valuation argument gets distorted if you take the reported FY2026 net income of $133.8M at face value. The quarterly pattern gives it away: one quarter posted $117.8M of net income on just $74.5M of revenue, a 158% net margin, while the surrounding quarters were normal-ish at 1.8%, 9.3%, 7.2%, and 5.2% net margins. So the canonical 9.6x P/E and 44.7% net margin are close to useless for judging recurring earnings power. On an operating basis, the business earned $11.4M EBIT on $299.2M of sales, just a 3.8% operating margin. Even if I generously normalize tax and below-the-line items, this looks like a company currently capable of maybe mid-single-digit net margins, not 40%-plus. At a $1.42B market cap and 4.3x sales, the market is not paying for a busted microcap anymore; it is paying for a company that can keep compounding revenue at 20%+ and convert today’s 30% gross margin into substantially better operating leverage than has yet shown up.
That is where I part company with the more bullish valuation outputs. If I put a realistic frame around the business—say $320M-$360M of near-term revenue, 5%-8% operating margin once scale and mix improve, and continued positive cash generation—the current price already discounts a lot of that success. On $350M of revenue, an 8% operating margin would be $28M of operating income; even with a clean balance sheet, that does not scream cheap at $1.42B. The strongest fact in the whole file is not the tax-boosted earnings figure but the spread between gross margin and operating margin: 30.6% gross margin sounds attractive, yet only 3.8% makes it through at the operating line. That tells me either SG&A/R&D intensity remains structurally high, or the revenue base is still too lumpy to absorb overhead efficiently. Either way, I do not see enough evidence yet for the stock to deserve a premium multiple on normalized earnings.
The best counterargument is straightforward and serious: the business has improved on almost every line that matters, and turnarounds often look expensive right before the margin inflection becomes obvious. Revenue doubled in two years, gross profit nearly tripled from $35.3M in FY2024 to $91.4M in FY2026, quarterly revenue has risen from $40.3M to $86.4M in seven quarters, and cash generation is now real rather than optical. If management can hold gross margin around 30% while growing into the cost base, operating margins could plausibly move from 3.8% toward 10% faster than skeptics expect. In that case, today’s 4.3x sales would not be outrageous for a debt-free grid-exposure compounder. I also would not overread the recent insider sales without size relative to holdings or whether they were option-related; they are a yellow flag, not a thesis by themselves.
What would change my mind is simple: I need to see that the latest $86.4M quarter is not just volume growth but the start of durable operating leverage. If AMSC can deliver two or three more quarters with revenue above $80M, gross margin staying near 30%, and operating margin moving into the 7%-10% range without help from one-offs, then the stock deserves a higher normalized earnings framework and I would get constructive even above $29. Conversely, if revenue slips back into the mid-$60Ms/$70Ms or gross margin retreats toward the low-20s, then this is a project-lumpy industrial with overstated earnings quality and the shares should trade much lower, likely closer to 2x-3x sales.
Grok Reading
The headline PE of 9.6x is a mirage. FY2026 net income of $133.8M embeds a roughly $118M one-time item in the December quarter (158% net margin on $74.5M revenue); strip that out and you are looking at roughly $15–20M of underlying net income and only $11.4M of operating income on $299.2M of sales—an operating margin of 3.8%. At a $1.42B enterprise value that is roughly 75–95x normalized earnings and about 78x the $18.3M of free cash flow actually generated. Revenue growth itself is the genuine bright spot: the top line has nearly tripled from $106M in FY2023 to $299M, gross margin has structurally lifted from the high-single-digits to 30.5%, and the balance sheet is fortress-clean ($141M cash, zero debt, current ratio 2.4). But the market is already paying 4.3x sales for a project-based specialty industrial whose quarterly revenue is decelerating and whose operating leverage has yet to appear outside a non-recurring windfall.
The story the numbers tell is therefore a real but incomplete turnaround: Grid/Gridtec mix shift and grid-hardening demand are converting into higher gross profit dollars ($91M versus $35M two years earlier), yet opex is still consuming almost all of that gross profit. Insider behavior reinforces skepticism—ten open-market sales in a single week of June 2026 with zero purchases. When management and directors are systematically lightening up immediately after the year that produced the tax-gain inflated EPS of ~$3.12, the signal is that they do not view the current run-rate as the new normal. Secondary flags (unusual selling, decelerating quarterly revenue trend, macro headwinds) line up with the same conclusion.
The strongest counter-argument is straightforward and quantitative. A 43% revenue CAGR, a clean jump to positive FCF, and a debt-free balance sheet with nearly half a turn of cash relative to market cap are not the hallmarks of a failed company. If gross margins hold near 30% and operating expenses grow slower than sales, a path to 10–12% operating margins on a $350–400M revenue base produces $35–50M of EBIT within two years—enough to make today’s multiple look merely elevated rather than absurd. The valuation synthesis composite at $43–65 implicitly assumes exactly that trajectory, and the grid-interconnection bottleneck is a genuine, multi-year secular tailwind that ABB and Siemens cannot fully saturate. That case is coherent; I simply weight the earnings-quality distortion and the insider distribution more heavily than the DCF upside, because AMSC has a multi-year history of over-promising margin expansion that never quite arrived on schedule.
I would flip to constructive on two concrete developments: (1) two consecutive quarters of operating margin at or above 10% with no one-time items, proving the gross-margin gains are dropping through, and (2) announcement of multi-year utility or Navy framework agreements that visibly refill the backlog enough to re-accelerate organic revenue above 25%. Until then the stock at $29.37 is pricing a durability of earnings power that the clean numbers do not yet support.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
AMSC has executed a striking operational turnaround: revenue grew from $108M (2022) to $299M (2026), gross margin expanded from 12.4% to 30.5%, and operating margin flipped from -19.4% to +3.8%. FCF turned positive in 2024 and reached $18.3M in 2026, with OCF/NI of 1.26x and modestly negative accruals (-1% of assets) supporting good earnings quality. The balance sheet is clean: $140.7M liquid cash, no net debt, Altman Z of 3.65. Net income of $133.8M in 2026 is far above operating income and likely reflects a large one-off item (deferred tax asset release or similar) — the underlying operating earnings power is more like the low single-digit margin the income statement shows. The concerning side is per-share value stewardship. Diluted share count went from 27.2M to 43.9M — a 12.7% CAGR — with SBC at 5.3% of revenue and buybacks recovering just 0.3%. That materially dilutes shareholders even as the business improves. Insider behavior compounds the concern: 31 sells vs 1 tiny buy in the last 12 months, with the CEO (McGahn) and Kosiba selling repeatedly in June 2026 in clustered lots. The Beneish M of -0.89 also warrants a look given the margin ramp, though other integrity signals are clean. Net: a mature-earner classification is generous — this is a business that just crossed into sustained profitability. Fundamentals are improving fast, but the durability, moat depth, and management's capital discipline are unproven at this scale.
Verify before trusting this (6)
- Composition of 2026 net income - identify the size of any deferred tax benefit or one-time gain vs recurring earnings
- Customer concentration in the 10-K (Inox Wind and other grid/wind customers) - is revenue growth broad or dependent on one or two names
- Backlog and order book disclosure to assess durability of the revenue ramp
- SBC vesting schedules and any 10b5-1 plans behind the June 2026 insider cluster
- Receivables and inventory trends underlying the Beneish flag
- Any acquisition-driven revenue (Neeltran, NWL) vs organic growth
The e2e composite fair value of $43.60 and signal-adjusted $65.18 are almost entirely carried by an anchored-PE method printing $156 — which is absurd given a $133.8M net income line the quality lens itself flags as non-operating-inflated. Strip that out and the sober valuation methods disagree violently with the tape: DCF $7.70 and EPV floor $3.00 both sit at roughly 10-25% of the $29.37 price. Even splitting the difference generously between the anchored multiple and the cash-flow methods lands you in the low-$20s at best.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- What drove the $133.8M net income — tax benefit, one-time gain, or genuine operating leverage
- Segment margin trajectory in grid vs wind
- Share count trajectory and any pending equity issuance
- Backlog quality and customer concentration
Sentiment pressure on AMSC is net positive but not euphoric. The narrative is a moderate-intensity, moderate-durability turnaround/grid-modernization story - not a cult trade, but the tape has been rewarding the thesis: 43% CAGR, +52pp over three years, and a record-revenue annual meeting headline just days before the Q1 print on Aug 5. That is a classic setup where narrative momentum and a fresh catalyst do the pushing, independent of whether the DCF gap ever closes. With beta 3.22, this name is a leveraged bet on the tape's direction, and today's tape is mildly risk-on (regime +22, VIX 16, S&P near highs) - that amplifies the tailwind. The July 21 unexplained 3.6% pop also hints at quiet accumulation into the print. Offsets are real but secondary: recent 34% trails the 43% long-term run, so momentum is decelerating; macro carries a headwind from 4.68% 10y and a 26.9 market PE that punishes small-cap high-beta names first if the tape rolls; and one recent piece flagged the growth-valuation risk directly. Analyst tone is not provided, which caps confidence. Net: a moderate tailwind driven by narrative plus imminent catalyst, sitting on a beta that will magnify whichever way the tape breaks.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Aug 5 Q1 print - beat/miss and margin trajectory will either validate or crack the turnaround narrative
- Any analyst target revisions post-print (tone data was missing here)
- Whether VIX holds sub-18 and S&P holds recent highs - a regime flip would hit beta 3.22 hard
- Sector rotation flows in grid/renewable infrastructure names as a read-through
This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.