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OLDER Analysis Report
Aug 1, 2026
38 days ago · 100% complete
This report is 38 days old — newer filings and price moves since then are not reflected.
For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page

What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B (BRK-B) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.

Our current read (analysis of 2026-09-08): Designation Watch · Gem Score +8 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 76 · Value -37 · Sentiment -4 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $340.68 vs $511.43 at analysis

Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable reference-name attribute you can cite):

  • profile-header / price-overview — company profile, live quote, market cap
  • extended-analysisthe core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memo
  • future-predictions — our forward price-band predictions
  • market-narrative / ai-findings / gpt-critique — narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)
  • Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers): price-history, income-trend, key-metrics, financials (statement tables), insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.

More for machine readers: site briefing at /llms.txt · any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER · raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds); every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B

BRK-B NYSE
Financial Services · Insurance - Diversified
Omaha, NE 68131, United States berkshirehathaway.com Updated Jul 31, 9:06am
Price
$509.68
Market Cap
$1.1T
Employees
387,800
Beta
0.61
Avg Volume
4,571,439
CEO
Mr. Gregory Edward Abel

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B is the Class B common stock of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., an American multinational conglomerate holding company headquartered in Omaha, Nebraska. Today, Berkshire Hathaway operates a diversified portfolio of businesses spanning property and casualty insurance, reinsurance, utilities and energy, freight rail transportation, manufacturing, finance, services, and retailing. Its insurance operations, including brands such as GEICO and specialized reinsurance units, form a core part of its financial services activity, providing underwriting and risk management across multiple markets. Beyond insurance, the company owns major assets in rail transport through Burlington Northern Santa Fe and in regulated power and gas through Berkshire Hathaway Energy, alongside numerous manufacturing and consumer-facing businesses. Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B shares provide economic exposure to this broad, multi-sector group, giving investors access to a large, diversified corporate ecosystem that plays a significant role in insurance, infrastructure, and industrial activity in the United States and globally.

Runs with full report Generated: Aug 1, 2026 12:25am
Price Overview
Price at report time
$511.43
as of Aug 1, 12:30am (38d ago)
Change · Aug 1
+1.75 (+0.34%)
Day Range
$506.70 – $513.03
52-Week Range
$455.19 – $516.85
50-Day MA
$491.38
200-Day MA
$490.39
Volume
2,521,127.00
Right now · live
Log in to get the live feed
Members see the real-time price and the move since this report (over 38d).
Share Structure
Outstanding 1,437,903.00
Float 1,166,258.00
Free Float 81.1%
High free float — 81.1% of shares trade freely, ~18.9% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Small absolute float (1.2M shares) — even with a decent free float %, volume can be thin. Check average daily volume before sizing a position.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Aug 1, 2026 12:30am (38d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 3:13am (40d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
TD Twelve Data statement HEX SEC filing
Industry comparison last run: Aug 1, 2026 12:22am
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
HEX
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
16.42
Stock Price: $509.68
EPS (Diluted): 31.04
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
HEX
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
1.53
Stock Price: $509.68
Total Equity: $719.70B
Shares: 2,157,334,111
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
HEX
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
Market Cap: $1,099.31B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $52.57B
EBITDA: N/A
EBITDA not available
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
HEX
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$1.0T
Market Cap: $1,099.31B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $52.57B
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
HEX
Gross Profit / Revenue
Gross Profit: N/A
Revenue: $410.52B
Missing from API: Gross Profit
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
HEX
Operating Income / Revenue
Operating Income: N/A
Revenue: $410.52B
Missing from API: Operating Income
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
HEX
Net Income / Revenue
16.3%
Net Income: $66.97B
Revenue: $410.52B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
HEX
Net Income / Total Equity
9.3%
Net Income: $66.97B
Total Equity: $719.70B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
HEX
NOPAT / Invested Capital
Operating Income: N/A
Tax Rate: 18.4%
Equity: $719.70B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $52.57B
Zero debt — invested capital = equity minus cash (very efficient)
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
HEX
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
Current Assets: N/A
Current Liabilities: N/A
Missing from API: Current Assets, Current Liabilities
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
HEX
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.00
Short-Term Debt: $0.00
Long-Term Debt: $0.00
Total Debt: $0.00
Total Equity: $719.70B
Zero debt — this company carries no debt obligations. Strongest possible score.
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
HEX
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$190.29
Revenue: $410.52B
Shares: 2,157,334,111
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
HEX
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$333.61
Total Equity: $719.70B
Shares: 2,157,334,111
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
HEX
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$11.61
Operating CF: $45.97B
CapEx: -$20.93B
Shares: 2,157,334,111
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
TD
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
Last Dividend: $0.00
Stock Price: $509.68
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
HEX
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $66.97B
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Aug 1, 2026 12:17am
Compares BRK-B against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 3:13am (40d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $354.7B $234.1B $439.3B $424.2B $410.5B
Cost of Revenue
Gross Profit
Operating Expenses $57.1B $63.2B $117.1B $70.0B $73.9B
Operating Income
Net Income $89.9B -$22.8B $96.2B $89.0B $67.0B
EBITDA
EPS $39.70 $-10.33 $44.27 $41.27 $31.04
EPS (Diluted) $39.70 $-10.33 $44.27 $41.27 $31.04
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 31, 2026 9:06am (39d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $88.7B $36.4B $38.6B $48.4B $52.6B
Total Current Assets
Total Assets $958.8B $948.5B $1.1T $1.2T $1.2T
Current Liabilities
Long-Term Debt
Total Liabilities $443.9B $466.8B $499.2B $502.2B $502.5B
Total Equity $514.9B $481.7B $570.8B $651.7B $719.7B
Retained Earnings $534.4B $511.6B $607.4B $696.2B $763.2B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 3:13am (40d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $39.4B $37.2B $49.2B $30.6B $46.0B
Capital Expenditure -$13.3B -$15.5B -$19.4B -$19.0B -$20.9B
Free Cash Flow $26.1B $21.8B $29.8B $11.6B $25.0B
Acquisitions (net) -$456.0M -$10.6B -$8.6B -$396.0M -$1.1B
Net Debt Issued / (Repaid)
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks -$27.1B -$7.9B -$9.2B -$2.9B
Net Change in Cash $40.3B -$52.3B $2.2B $9.7B $4.2B
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 3:13am (40d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth -34.0% +87.7% -3.4% -3.2%
Gross Profit Growth
Operating Income Growth
Net Income Growth -125.3% +522.8% -7.5% -24.8%
EBITDA Growth
0Company Classification 1Industry Landscape 2Company Momentum 3Forward Projection 4aDCF Valuation 4bEarnings Power Value 4cAnchored PE 4dReverse DCF 4eRevenue-Based DCF 4fAnchored P/S 4gScenario Analysis 4hDividend Discount Model 4iBook Value Analysis 4jInsider Activity 4fCash Flow Quality 4gDebt Maturity Risk 4hMacro Environment 4iSector Intelligence 4jRevenue Confidence 4kSensitivity Analysis 4lSector Demand Cycle 5AI Investigation 5bThesis Evaluation 6Valuation Synthesis
computed not applicable not yet run 17 computed · 6 not applicable · 1 not yet run
Risk : Reward — upside vs downside from this company's own quarters
Computed 2026-09-06 19:00
2.8 : 1 +1σ upside vs −1σ downside, from this company's own quarterly history
A +1σ run of quarters pays +32%; a −1σ run costs 12%. Ratio 2.8:1 (μ 4.6%, σ 6.2% , 16 pairs).
Older method (repeat-worst-quarter): 3.6 : 1
CaseGrowthMarginFair valuevs price ($511.43)
Bull — recovery +7% 25.7% $675.37 +32%
Base — stabilizes +4% 22.3% $552.89 +8%
Bear — keeps slipping +2% 19.0% $444.27 -13%
Stress — last quarter repeats -1% 22.3% $465.60 -9%
Upside — a +1σ run of quarters (v2) +11% 22.3% $677.43 +32%
Stress — a −1σ run of quarters (v2) -2% 22.3% $451.60 -12%
The next quarters keep the trajectory of the worst recent matched quarter (ending 2025-12-31) — growth stays at -0.7% and margins bend by the same profit-vs-revenue ratio (×1.00). Stress is a trajectory, not a prediction — it answers "what if the ship's current heading simply continues," which history says is the case to respect.
Why this is appearing: this company files quarterly, so its recent trajectory could be measured rather than assumed — the engine matched Jun 2026, Mar 2026 against the same quarters one year earlier and found revenue +7.3% · net income +110.8% year-over-year. That measured heading is what the stress case extends forward. Of those, the stress case extends the worst matched quarter — the one ending Dec 31, 2025 (revenue -0.7% YoY) — not the average. Data measured through Jun 30, 2026 — this card recalculates automatically when the next quarterly filing is ingested. Companies without quarterly filings (many foreign listings) never show this card: with no measured trajectory, there is nothing honest to repeat.
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for BRK-B — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
Claude Opus reviews the pipeline's raw data + every prior verdict, then writes an independent take.
No AI findings yet for BRK-B — they're generated by the pipeline (ai-findings step) when a report is run on this ticker.
GPT Reading
Independent reading · gpt-5.4 · generated 2026-08-01 00:29:54
Verdict Fairly valued around $510 — Berkshire deserves a premium for balance-sheet strength and capital allocation, but with revenue shrinking and FCF yield near 2.3%, fair value looks closer to $460-$525 than to a clear breakout higher.

At $510, Berkshire is being valued less like a cyclical insurer/industrial bundle and more like a near-riskless compounding machine, and the recent numbers don’t fully earn that treatment. The core operating picture is stable, but not growing: 2025 revenue was $410.5 billion, down from $424.2 billion in 2024 and $439.3 billion in 2023, a two-year decline of about 6.6%. The quarterly run-rate is similarly flat to soft, with revenue around $92-95 billion for seven straight quarters and the latest quarter at $93.7 billion versus $89.7 billion a year earlier, but still below the $94-95 billion levels seen in late 2024 and late 2025. That is not deterioration in the dramatic sense, but it is unmistakably a no-growth revenue base. On that base, reported earnings are too noisy to lean on mechanically: quarterly net margin has swung from 5.1% to 32.4%, and annual net income has ranged from -$22.8 billion in 2022 to $96.2 billion in 2023. For Berkshire, mark-to-market investment gains distort GAAP net income, so the 16.4x P/E looks cleaner than the underlying economics actually are.

What stands out to me is that cash generation and balance-sheet strength remain excellent, but not obviously cheap relative to the current market cap. Berkshire ended 2025 with $719.7 billion of equity and trades at 1.53x book, which is not outrageous for a high-quality allocator but also not a bargain for a company posting just 9.3% ROE. If you pay 1.53x book for a 9%-ish return-on-equity franchise, your forward compounding rate will only be attractive if ROE rises, capital allocation gets more aggressive, or the multiple holds firm. Meanwhile, free cash flow was $25.0 billion on $1.10 trillion of market value, barely a 2.3% FCF yield; operating cash flow of $46.0 billion is stronger, but Berkshire is capital-intensive outside insurance, with nearly $20.9 billion of capex. This is the central issue: the company is enormously safe and diversified, yet the market is already charging a premium for that safety while organic growth is absent.

I also don’t buy the most bearish framing that this is some operational unraveling. The latest quarter’s net income of $10.1 billion was down sharply from the prior-year quarter’s $4.6 billion? No — up year over year in absolute dollars, which highlights why simplistic “recent earnings down 24.8%” summaries can mislead when they are anchored to different periods or annual swings. Likewise, quarterly revenue has been remarkably resilient for a conglomerate of this size in a mixed macro backdrop, and the debt-to-equity shown as zero alongside $52.6 billion of cash underscores just how much optionality Berkshire still has. A $720 billion equity base, fortress liquidity, and a collection of insurance, railroad, utility, and industrial assets should not trade at distressed or even market-average multiples. The problem is narrower: quality is real, but the current price already reflects it.

The best bull case is straightforward and respectable. First, 1.53x book for Berkshire may be justified because book value understates the earning power of wholly owned subsidiaries and the value of capital allocation skill; Burlington, BHE, and the insurance operations are not static assets. Second, the reported revenue decline may matter less than underwriting quality and investment income, especially in a higher-rate environment where Berkshire’s float and cash earn more. Third, a 16.4x earnings multiple for this level of resilience is hardly stretched versus the broader market, and if leadership transition fears fade under Greg Abel, the conglomerate discount could narrow rather than widen. Finally, Berkshire’s downside protection is real: even with uneven earnings, 2025 still produced $67.0 billion of net income and $25.0 billion of free cash flow. I weigh those points seriously; they are why I am not outright bearish. But they support “good company, fair-ish price,” not “obvious upside.”

What would change my mind is evidence that the business has moved from capital-preserving to capital-compounding again. Specifically, I’d want to see annual revenue stabilize and reaccelerate back above $425 billion, operating cash flow push sustainably above $55 billion, and free cash flow clear $35 billion without balance-sheet strain. On returns, a move from 9.3% ROE toward 11-12% would justify paying north of 1.5x book. Shorter term, if upcoming quarters can show revenue consistently above $95 billion and net income holding in the mid-teens of billions without relying on investment marks, I’d be more constructive. Absent that, I think Berkshire is priced about where a premium-quality but low-growth conglomerate should trade.

Grok Reading
Independent reading · grok-4.5 · generated 2026-08-01 00:30:33
Verdict Modestly overvalued at $510 / 1.53x book given shrinking earnings, 2.3% FCF yield, and peak-range multiple into a leadership handoff

The numbers describe a mature conglomerate whose reported earnings power is eroding while the market still assigns it a premium multiple. Annual revenue has slipped from $439B in 2023 to $424B in 2024 and $411B in 2025; net income has compressed from $96B to $89B to $67B over the same span. Trailing P/E sits at 16.4x on that diminished base, and price-to-book at 1.53x sits near the top of Berkshire’s decade range against $720B of equity. Free-cash-flow generation of $25B on a $1.1T market cap equates to a 2.3% yield—thin compensation for a business whose revenue CAGR is –3.3% and earnings CAGR is –16.6%. Quarterly revenue has held in a tight $90–95B band, so the top-line decay is real rather than seasonal; the wild swings in net margin (5% to 32% within five quarters) are almost entirely mark-to-market noise from the equity portfolio, which means the “earnings” the 16.4x multiple is applied to are not the clean operating stream investors think they are buying. Cash on the balance sheet is reported at only $53B—strikingly low for Berkshire historically—while capex of $21B is absorbing nearly half of operating cash flow. At $510 the stock is pricing continuity of the old Buffett premium without evidence that the underlying engine is still compounding at historical rates.

The leadership-transition overhang is not abstract. Greg Abel inherits a capital-allocation franchise whose recent deployment has produced neither large acquisitions nor aggressive buybacks at these valuations, and the Apple concentration risk flagged in the pre-flight note remains unaddressed in the numbers. Rule-based classification correctly tags the firm a mature earner, yet the secondary signals—poor cash-flow quality, macro headwinds, negative momentum—are directionally consistent with the income-statement deterioration. Paying 1.53x book and 2.7x sales for a collection of insurance, rail, utility and manufacturing assets whose collective earnings are shrinking is a bet on reputation, not on the current run-rate.

The strongest counter-argument is that GAAP net income is the wrong lens. Berkshire’s insurance float, BNSF’s pricing power and the utility rate base are high-quality, hard-to-replicate cash engines; the $46B of operating cash flow is tangible, debt is negligible, and the conglomerate structure still allows tax-efficient capital recycling that pure-play peers cannot match. A skeptic would note that 2022’s –$23B loss and the subsequent rebound simply illustrate equity-market volatility, not operational decay, and that a 16x multiple on a fortress balance sheet has historically been a floor rather than a ceiling once equity markets stabilize. They would also argue the cash figure is understated if short-term Treasuries are excluded, and that book-value growth plus occasional large buybacks have always been the real total-return drivers. I weigh those points seriously, but they do not erase the fact that both reported earnings and free cash flow are in multi-year decline while the valuation multiple has expanded to the high end of its range; quality alone does not justify paying up for negative growth.

I would reverse to neutral or constructive if trailing twelve-month operating earnings (ex-mark-to-market) stabilize above $40B and begin growing mid-single digits, if book value per share compounds at 10%+ for two consecutive years, or if the company deploys a material portion of its liquidity into a large acquisition or buyback that demonstrably accretes value under Abel. A drop back below 1.3x book would also reset the risk-reward.

Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Each AI above independently stated a direction (undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued) and how strongly it believes it (conviction, 0–5). We combine those into a Bull-Bear Index on a 0–10 scale: 5 is neutral, 10 is maximum bullish (undervalued at full conviction), 0 is maximum bearish. We compute the score ourselves with the same arithmetic for every seat — the models never grade their own bullishness — so the three are directly comparable. Δ shows how far each seat sits from the panel average of 3.5; a large Δ marks the dissenting voice, usually the one worth reading.
GPT gpt-5.4 5.0
fairly valued · conviction 4/5 · Δ +1.5 vs panel · self: 5.0
Grok grok-4.5 2.0
overvalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ -1.5 vs panel · self: 4.0
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-08-01 00:41:33
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality — hold, wait for a dip to add 7/10
Berkshire is a +76 fortress trading at a -37 fair price with a slightly soft tape — a hold, not a fresh buy, and I want $440s before I get aggressive.
The cruxBuffett himself has muted buybacks at these levels, which is the single most credible signal that $511 is not meaningfully below intrinsic.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from BRK-B's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionShare Count Shrinking
Earnings QualityWeak — Some Red Flags
The four lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+76
Fortress
edge √Σ 152 · risk √Σ 52 · conf 9/10

Berkshire generates enormous absolute cash - $25.04B FCF in 2025 on $410.5B revenue - with $52.57B in liquid cash and effectively zero net debt at the consolidated level (net cash position of $52.57B against a $1.1T market cap). Net income has been consistently large and positive across the cycle ($89.9B, -$22.8B mark-to-market year in 2022, $96.2B, $89.0B, $67.0B), and diluted share count has declined every year from 2.27B (2021) to 2.16B (2025), a -1.2% CAGR - management is a net buyer of its own equity, concentrating per-share value. Altman Z of 2.52 sits in the grey zone but is largely an artifact of applying an industrial formula to an insurance/conglomerate balance sheet where float is a liability but functions as low-cost permanent capital. The flagged earnings-quality concern (OCF/NI 0.07x, accruals 2% of assets) reflects the mechanics of a business where reported net income includes unrealized investment gains/losses under ASC 321 - a GAAP quirk Buffett himself has repeatedly warned about - not aggressive accrual accounting. The insider tape shows only Buffett gifting and converting A-to-B shares (charitable transfers), no open-market P/S activity - neutral to positive signal on governance. Durability is exceptional: diversified across insurance (GEICO, reinsurance), rail (BNSF), energy (BHE), manufacturing, and a massive equity portfolio, with a self-funding structure that has never required external capital.

Strengths 4
m90
Fortress balance sheet
$52.57B liquid cash, net cash position at the parent, and insurance float providing low-cost permanent capital. Survival math is not a question at any conceivable stress level.
m75
Per-share value concentration
Diluted shares fell from 2.27B to 2.16B over five years (-1.2% CAGR). No SBC dilution issue - repurchases are opportunistic and disciplined.
m80
Diversified durable cash generation
Positive FCF every year of the window ($26.2B, $21.8B, $29.8B, $11.6B, $25.0B) across insurance, rail, energy, and manufacturing - no single-segment dependency.
m55
Clean insider behavior
Only activity is Buffett's routine A-to-B conversions and charitable gifts - consistent with pledged philanthropy, not selling. No governance red flags.
Concerns 3
m35
Optically weak OCF/NI ratio
OCF/NI at 0.07x and net income swinging from -$22.8B (2022) to +$96.2B (2023) reflect ASC 321 unrealized equity gains flowing through net income - an accounting artifact, not accrual manipulation, but it makes reported earnings volatile and less useful as a quality signal.
m30
FCF volatility
FCF dropped to $11.62B in 2024 from $29.79B in 2023 before rebounding to $25.04B - capex cycles at BNSF/BHE and working-capital swings create lumpiness worth understanding at the segment level.
m25
Succession transition
Post-Buffett leadership (Abel/Jain) is a real, if well-telegraphed, operational transition. Capital allocation culture is the moat and has yet to be tested under new hands.
This is one of the strongest business structures in public markets - diversified, self-funding, net cash, shrinking share count, and a culture of disciplined capital allocation. The flagged earnings-quality concern is a GAAP artifact of marking a giant equity portfolio to market through net income, not real accrual gaming, and I refuse to penalize the business for that. The genuine soft spots are lumpy FCF and the untested post-Buffett era. I land firmly in Fortress territory, comfortably above 87 but short of the 92 tier because succession and the accounting-driven volatility keep it from 'essentially nothing soft found'.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Segment-level operating earnings and capex at BNSF and BHE to separate underlying cash generation from investment-portfolio noise
  • Insurance float trajectory and combined ratios at GEICO and the reinsurance units
  • Cash and Treasury bill holdings at the parent (widely reported to exceed $300B) - the $52.57B liquid cash figure here appears understated versus disclosed holdings
  • Repurchase authorization status and pace of buybacks in the most recent quarters
  • Any updates on succession framework and capital-allocation authority for Abel/Jain/Combs/Weschler
Valuation / Mispricing
-37
Fairly Valued
edge √Σ 46 · risk √Σ 85 · conf 7/10
Price $511 vs deserved ~$470-530 SOTP range - inside the band, no meaningful margin of safety either way. attractive below $440.00

Without an e2e fair-value handoff, I anchor on what Berkshire's parts are worth. The equity portfolio (~$285-300B), roughly $300B+ of cash and Treasuries, and the wholly-owned operating businesses (BNSF, BHE, insurance underwriting, manufacturing/services) collectively support a sum-of-parts in the roughly $1.0-1.15T range depending on what multiple you assign to the operating earnings stream (call it ~$40-45B of normalized after-tax operating earnings at 18-22x). Against a $1.10T market cap and $511 share price, that's essentially a coin-flip to deserved value - maybe a few percent rich, maybe a few percent cheap, well inside the noise band.

Cheap signals 2
m35
Optionality on the cash
Dry powder of this scale in a market drawdown is worth more than a static DCF gives it credit for - a genuine call option on dislocation that raises deserved value modestly above SOTP.
m30
Shrinking share count compounds quietly
Even at reduced pace, buybacks plus retained earnings mean per-share intrinsic grows mid-to-high single digits with almost no execution risk - a floor under long-term returns.
Rich / priced-in 4
m55
No visible discount to intrinsic
At ~$1.1T cap, price already captures the cash pile plus the marked-to-market equity book plus a fair multiple on operating earnings. There is no obvious conglomerate discount to exploit here.
m45
Buffett has slowed buybacks
The clearest tell on valuation is Berkshire's own repurchase behavior - buybacks have been muted, signaling management does not view shares as materially below intrinsic. That is a strong internal signal against calling it cheap.
m40
Cash drag at current rates trajectory
A $300B+ T-bill stack is a strength on defense but a return headwind - if short rates fall, so does a large chunk of pretax income, and the market may already price the current rate benefit.
m25
GAAP earnings noise cuts both ways
The earnings-quality haircut hint is a mark-to-market artifact, not real accrual manipulation - I refuse to lower deserved value for it, but neither does it argue the stock is cheap.
This is fairly valued and I am not going to pretend otherwise. Berkshire at $511 gives me a fortress compounding at maybe 8-10% a year with very low downside - that is a fine hold, but it is not a mispricing. Buffett himself is not aggressively buying back stock here, which is the single most credible signal that intrinsic is not far above price. I would want it closer to $440 - roughly a 15% pullback - before I would call it a clear buy on valuation alone. Above $550 it starts to look mildly rich.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Latest 10-Q cash and Treasury balances and equity portfolio fair value
  • Operating earnings run-rate ex-investment gains (insurance underwriting, BNSF, BHE, MSR segment)
  • Pace and average price of Q3/Q4 share repurchases - the cleanest read on management's own intrinsic estimate
  • Insurance float growth and combined ratio at GEICO and reinsurance
General Sentiment
-4
Balanced
tail √Σ 52 · head √Σ 57 · conf 6/10

The tape is only mildly stressful (VIX 16, S&P 1.6% off highs, neutral regime) and Berkshire's 0.61 beta and diversified insurance/utility mix mean broad macro pressure barely lands here. Higher rates (10y 4.68%) actually help the float-heavy insurance model at the margin, and the record cash pile reframes rate pressure as optionality rather than pain. News flow is quiet-constructive: Buffett-style ETF endorsements, defensive-ETF features, and speculation about a large AI deployment of the cash hoard all keep the name in a favorable, if unexciting, light. Against that, there is no active bullish narrative pulling BRK-B higher. It is not an AI story, not a rate-cut beneficiary, not a momentum name. Momentum readings are weak (negative 3-year trend, negative CAGR) and a Q2 print is imminent with commentary flagging it as unlikely to beat. In a tape where narrative-driven cohorts (AI, crypto-adjacent, high-beta growth) soak up flows, a story-less defensive conglomerate quietly de-rates on a relative basis even if absolute pressure is light. Net: macro pressure is muted, narrative pressure is a mild drag, news tone is faintly positive. That averages to balanced with a slight headwind lean into the print.

Tailwinds 3
m35
Low-beta defensive shield
Beta 0.61 and a diversified insurance/rail/utility mix mean the mildly stressed tape (VIX 16, S&P off highs) barely presses on this name relative to high-beta peers.
m30
Cash pile reframed as optionality
News flow is actively spinning the record cash hoard as dry powder for a big AI-adjacent deployment under Abel, turning a rate-era criticism into a bullish latent-catalyst story.
m25
Buffett-halo media tone
Multiple pieces this week frame BRK and Buffett-style investing as the smart defensive play, a persistent low-key sentiment support that rarely reverses.
Headwinds 3
m40
No active narrative to bid it up
With no AI, GLP-1, or rate-cut story attached, BRK-B sits out narrative-driven flows. In a tape where capital chases stories, a story-less name quietly underperforms even without direct selling pressure.
m35
Weak momentum and pre-earnings caution
Negative 3-year trend and Zacks-style commentary flagging Q2 as unlikely to beat create a soft, sell-the-rip backdrop into the print.
m20
Higher-for-longer rates on market PE
10y at 4.68% and market PE 26 press on all equities; BRK's insurance float actually benefits from rates, so exposure here is minimal but not zero on the equity-book side.
Pressure on this specific name is close to neutral. The macro tape is only mildly stressful and Berkshire's low beta and defensive mix soak most of it up, while the media backdrop is quietly Buffett-friendly. What is missing is any active narrative pulling it higher, and with momentum weak and a soft Q2 setup, the name drifts rather than rallies. I read it as balanced with a slight headwind lean into the print, and any credible AI-deployment story from Abel would flip it to a genuine tailwind.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Q2 earnings tone and any commentary on cash deployment or a large acquisition
  • Whether a specific AI/energy deployment narrative crystallizes (would flip to tailwind)
  • Sector rotation into defensives if VIX pushes above 20
  • Any Buffett/Abel succession or capital-return signal
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
Growth Outlook
not run

This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.

The forward growth verdict — is the business itself likely to grow (next 2 quarters / year 1 / years 2–3), judged against its category and against printed expectations. The full horizon ladder + creme renders on the Growth Outlook card above. Not a call on the price (Valuation owns that) or the tape (Sentiment owns that).
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Lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure), and Growth Outlook (the forward growth verdict). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Price Prediction
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Prediction unavailable. valuation-synthesis has no result for BRK-B — the prediction needs its fair-value anchors.

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My Notes personal — only you see this
v1.1.603 · d6768134 · 2026-09-08 13:33:08