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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Caci International Inc. (CACI) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Watch · Gem Score -8 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 55 · Value -59 · Sentiment 48 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $535.98 vs $513.21 at analysis
Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable
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profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
price-history,income-trend,key-metrics,financials(statement tables),insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.
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any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER ·
raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds);
every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.
Caci International Inc.
CACI NYSECACI International Inc. is a technology and professional services company that provides information solutions primarily to government clients. The company focuses on supporting national security missions and government modernization for U.S. intelligence, defense, and federal civilian agencies. Its offerings span enterprise IT, digital solutions, cyber security, command and control, communications, data and business analytics, and specialized engineering services. CACI International Inc. operates through domestic and international segments, with the domestic operations segment generating most of its business from U.S. federal agencies. Internationally, the company delivers IT services, data solutions, and software products, including through subsidiaries in Europe. Headquartered in Reston, Virginia, CACI International Inc. plays a significant role in helping government customers manage complex missions, modernize legacy systems, and enhance operational resilience across critical national security and public sector environments.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 22.32
Total Equity: $3.89B
Shares: 22,393,000
Total Debt: $2.92B
Cash: $106.18M
EBITDA: $959.31M
Total Debt: $2.92B
Cash: $106.18M
Revenue: $8.63B
Revenue: $8.63B
Revenue: $8.63B
Total Equity: $3.89B
Tax Rate: 17.4%
Equity: $3.89B
Total Debt: $2.92B
Cash: $106.18M
Current Liabilities: $1.21B
Long-Term Debt: $2.85B
Total Debt: $2.92B
Total Equity: $3.89B
Shares: 22,393,000
Shares: 22,393,000
CapEx: -$65.60M
Shares: 22,393,000
Stock Price: $505.86
Net Income: $499.83M
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 5:08pm (20d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $6.0B | $6.2B | $6.7B | $7.7B | $8.6B |
| Cost of Revenue | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gross Profit | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating Expenses | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating Income | $539.5M | $496.3M | $567.5M | $649.7M | $764.2M |
| Net Income | $457.4M | $366.8M | $384.7M | $419.9M | $499.8M |
| EBITDA | $664.8M | $631.0M | $709.1M | $791.9M | $959.3M |
| EPS | $18.52 | $15.64 | $16.59 | $18.76 | $22.47 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $18.30 | $15.49 | $16.43 | $18.60 | $22.32 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 4:49pm (20d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $88.0M | $114.8M | $115.8M | $134.0M | $106.2M |
| Total Current Assets | $1.3B | $1.2B | $1.2B | $1.4B | $1.8B |
| Total Assets | $6.2B | $6.6B | $6.6B | $6.8B | $8.6B |
| Current Liabilities | $884.8M | $1.0B | $994.0M | $1.1B | $1.2B |
| Long-Term Debt | $1.7B | $1.7B | $1.7B | $1.5B | $2.8B |
| Total Liabilities | $3.5B | $3.6B | $3.4B | $3.3B | $4.8B |
| Total Equity | $2.7B | $3.1B | $3.2B | $3.5B | $3.9B |
| Retained Earnings | $3.2B | $3.6B | $3.9B | $4.4B | $4.9B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 5:08pm (20d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $592.2M | $745.6M | $388.1M | $497.3M | $547.0M |
| Capital Expenditure | -$73.1M | -$74.6M | -$63.7M | -$63.7M | -$65.6M |
| Free Cash Flow | $519.1M | $671.0M | $324.3M | $433.6M | $481.4M |
| Acquisitions (net) | -$356.3M | -$615.5M | -$14.5M | -$90.2M | -$1.7B |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | -$3.0B | -$2.5B | -$3.3B | -$3.3B | -$6.8B |
| Dividends Paid | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stock Buybacks | -$509.1M | -$9.8M | -$273.2M | -$161.5M | -$168.6M |
| Net Change in Cash | -$19.2M | $26.8M | $972,000 | $18.2M | -$27.8M |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 5:08pm (20d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +2.6% | +8.1% | +14.3% | +12.6% |
| Gross Profit Growth | — | — | — | — |
| Operating Income Growth | -8.0% | +14.3% | +14.5% | +17.6% |
| Net Income Growth | -19.8% | +4.9% | +9.1% | +19.0% |
| EBITDA Growth | -5.1% | +12.4% | +11.7% | +21.1% |
Deep Analysis
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
Looking at the raw numbers first: CACI is compounding revenue at ~13% (FY21 $6.04B → FY25 $8.63B) with net income growing from $367M in FY22 to $500M in FY25 (~11% CAGR ex the anomalous FY21 $457M figure). The most recent quarter (Mar 2026) hit $2.35B revenue, up 8.3% YoY vs the $2.17B comp — that's a genuine deceleration from the 12-13% prints earlier in the trailing window. Net margins are sticky in the 5.2-5.8% band with a one-off 6.9% pop in Jun 2025. This is textbook government IT services: low-margin, high-visibility, capital-light (capex $66M on $547M OCF). FCF conversion of 96% of net income is real. Debt/equity of 0.75 and $2.92B debt against $106M cash is levered but serviceable at ~$500M NI.
On valuation: at $505.86 and ~21.7M shares (implied from $11B cap), TTM EPS is roughly $25 (sum of last 4Q NI ~$537M / 21.7M), giving forward P/E ~20x — not the 23x annual figure. EV/EBITDA of 14.8x for a 13% grower with 96% FCF conversion is not egregious; peers like SAIC and Leidos trade at 12-14x with slower growth. The synthesis composite fair value of $430 assumes something like 15-16x forward earnings, which implies CACI should trade at a discount to its own history and to faster-growing defense IT peers. I don't buy that. FCF of $481M on an $11B cap is a 4.4% FCF yield, and if FCF grows even 10% annually (well below the 21.8% CAGR), you get a mid-teens IRR without multiple expansion.
Where I'd push back on the prior models: the synthesis "fully_priced" verdict at -16.8% leans on DCF assumptions I'd want to see stress-tested — CACI's backlog visibility and the DoD/IC spending cycle under the current administration argue for continued high-single-digit organic growth plus tuck-in M&A. Market Forces flagging "aggressively leveraged" is overwrought at 0.75x D/E and ~2x net debt/EBITDA for a company with contracted federal revenue. The narrative layer's 80/20 fundamentals/story split feels right, and the "steady-compounder, anchored" framing is the correct lens. The contrarian case: revenue growth IS decelerating (12.6% recent YoY is the slowest quarterly print in the window), margins aren't expanding, and ROIC of 9.4% is below the likely cost of capital for a levered contractor — so this isn't a value-creating compounder in the Buffett sense, it's a capital-recycler that needs continued M&A to sustain double-digit top line. If federal budget continuing resolutions drag into 2026 or DOGE-style cuts hit IT services procurement, the 13% CAGR compresses to 5-7% and the multiple de-rates.
Insider activity is uninformative — small option exercises and a 264-share sale is noise, not signal. The dates showing 2026-07-13 for a stock at $505 in what should be current time suggests either forward-dated filings or a data anomaly worth flagging but not actionable. My verdict: I dissent from the synthesis "fully priced at $430" — that's too punitive for a business generating $480M FCF growing double digits with durable federal demand. But I also don't see this as a screaming bargain; the momentum deceleration and 9.4% ROIC keep me from table-pounding. Fair value is closer to $520-560 (20-22x forward EPS of ~$26, or 15-16x EV/EBITDA), roughly in line with today's price. I'd call it fairly valued with a modest positive skew — a hold with willingness to add on any pullback to the $440-460 range where the risk/reward genuinely tilts favorable.
GPT Reading
What stands out is that CACI is executing like a better business than its “mature contractor” label suggests, but the stock already reflects most of that improvement. Revenue has stepped up from $6.70B in FY2023 to $7.66B in FY2024 and $8.63B in FY2025, a two-year CAGR of roughly 13.5%, which is excellent for a federal IT/services name. The quarterly run-rate has also moved convincingly higher: from $2.04B in June 2024 to $2.35B in March 2026, with the last four quarters totaling about $9.16B. That says the growth is not just an annual accounting artifact; the business is genuinely larger. Net income is following, from $419.9M in FY2024 to $499.8M in FY2025, and the recent four-quarter sum is about $518.5M. The issue is that this growth is not translating into a materially better margin structure. Quarterly net margins are stuck in a narrow 5.2%-6.9% band, mostly around 5.5%-5.6%, and FY2025 operating margin was 8.9%. So the story is scale and consistency, not a business discovering operating leverage.
That matters for valuation. At roughly $11.0B market cap and $505.86 per share, investors are paying about 1.2x the current annualized revenue run-rate, around 21x the last four quarters of earnings, and nearly 23x trailing annual earnings. For a company with mid-teens top-line growth recently, that is not absurd. But for a business with sub-6% net margins, 9.4% ROIC, and real balance-sheet leverage, it is not obviously cheap either. Net debt is about $2.81B against just $106M of cash, which leaves enterprise value meaningfully above market cap and helps explain the 14.8x EV/EBITDA. Free cash flow of $481.4M is solid, but that is only a roughly 4.4% FCF yield on the equity value. That is fine for a high-quality compounder; it is not enough for me to call the shares mispriced when the underlying economics still look contractor-like rather than software-like.
The bull case depends on treating CACI as a durable federal modernization compounder that deserves a premium to generic government services peers, and there is real evidence for that. The company has now posted seven straight quarters of year-over-year revenue growth, and the latest quarter’s $2.35B was up about 8% sequentially from $2.17B a year earlier and roughly 13% year over year. Net income in that same March quarter rose from $111.9M to $130.4M, up about 17%. Annual operating income rose from $567.5M in FY2023 to $649.7M in FY2024 and $764.2M in FY2025, showing disciplined execution. The balance sheet is not pristine, but debt to equity below 0.75 and a current ratio of 1.47 do not suggest strain. If you believe federal cyber, intelligence, and modernization budgets remain robust, then a company growing revenue double digits while producing half a billion dollars of annual FCF can plausibly deserve a low-20s earnings multiple. That is the best argument against my caution: the market may be paying up not for margin expansion, but for the rarity of predictable double-digit growth in a mission-critical government niche.
I weigh that argument differently because the recent numbers still show a ceiling on profitability. The most recent three quarters all printed net margins between 5.5% and 5.6%, and even the better June 2025 quarter at 6.9% did not mark a new normal. If this is the earnings power, then upside from here needs continued high-single-digit to low-double-digit revenue growth just to support the current multiple. Any slowdown toward a more typical government-services pace would make 22x-23x earnings look rich quickly, especially with EV/revenue already at 1.65x for a people-intensive contractor. The lack of notable insider buying also deprives the bull case of an easy signal. I do not see a broken stock or a short, but I do see a company priced for continued clean execution with limited room for budget hiccups, procurement delays, or integration slippage.
What would change my mind is straightforward. If the next few quarters show revenue sustaining above a $9.4B annualized run-rate while net margins move durably above 6.2%-6.5%, that would imply CACI is finally converting scale into better economics, and I would support a valuation north of $550. Conversely, if revenue growth slips back toward mid-single digits while quarterly net income stays around $120M-$130M, then the stock should de-rate toward 18x-19x earnings, which points closer to $430-$460. The key is not another contract-win headline; it is whether the company can prove that recent growth is durable without leaning harder on leverage or accepting flat profitability.
Grok Reading
The raw numbers describe a government IT contractor that has quietly accelerated rather than merely matured. Revenue compounded from $6.04B in FY2021 to $8.63B in FY2025, with the latest four quarters already annualizing above $9.1B; the 13.5% revenue CAGR and 14% earnings CAGR sit well above the mid-single-digit slog typical of pure-play federal services peers. Free-cash-flow conversion is the cleanest part of the story: $481M FCF on only $66M of capex yields a 4.4% FCF yield at the $11B market cap, and FCF itself has grown at a 21.8% CAGR. Operating margins have held in an 8–9% band while net margins hover at 5.5–5.8%, exactly what a labor-heavy, low-asset contractor should produce. The balance sheet is the visible friction—$2.92B of debt against $106M cash leaves net leverage near 0.75× equity and an EV/FCF multiple north of 28×—yet interest coverage on $764M of operating income remains comfortable. Recent quarterly prints show the growth rate cooling: the March 2026 quarter grew only 8.3% year-over-year versus the mid-teens pace of earlier periods, confirming the secondary signal of decelerating revenue confidence.
At $505.86 the stock trades at 23× trailing earnings, 14.8× EV/EBITDA and 1.65× EV/sales. Those multiples embed a modest premium to the 18–20× range usual for government IT names, which is defensible only if the 12–14% growth rate persists. The valuation models’ $427–430 fair-value cluster therefore looks roughly 15% too pessimistic; it under-weights the durability of multi-year intelligence and cyber contracts and the fact that CACI is still taking share inside a secular modernization budget. Still, a 23× multiple on 5.8% net margins with visible sequential deceleration leaves little room for execution slips or a slower federal appropriations cycle. Insider activity is noise—routine option exercises and a trivial sale—so it supplies no incremental signal either way.
The strongest counter-argument is that the market has already marked the stock down ~25% from its peak and is therefore no longer pricing perfection. A skeptic would note that 13%+ growth at this scale, sticky mission-critical work, and pristine FCF quality justify the entire premium; any re-acceleration in the next two quarters would make today’s 20× forward multiple look cheap. That case has merit on the cash-flow math, yet it ignores the leverage and the macro headwinds already flagged: a continuing resolution or delayed defense bill would hit backlog conversion immediately, and the elevated net debt amplifies any earnings miss. I weigh the deceleration and the thin cash buffer more heavily than the historical growth rate because government spending is binary in the short run.
Two concrete data points would flip the view: (1) the next two quarters re-accelerating to double-digit organic revenue growth with backlog coverage above 1.5×, or (2) net debt pay-down that drops leverage below 0.5× while FCF stays above $500M. Absent those, the stock sits a modest stretch above intrinsic value.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
CACI is a mature federal IT/services earner showing consistent, accelerating growth: revenue $6.04B to $8.63B over five years (roughly 9% CAGR, with 12.7% in the latest year), operating margin stable in the 8-9% band, and net income advancing to $499.8M. Cash generation is real - FCF averaged around $486M/yr and OCF/NI of 1.32x with accruals at -1.9% of assets indicate clean earnings. Altman Z of 3.54 sits in the safe zone.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Debt maturity schedule and covenants behind the $2.81B net debt position
- Backlog composition, funded vs unfunded, and top-customer/contract concentration
- Organic vs acquired revenue growth split - how much of the $2.6B revenue rise came from M&A
- Whether operating margin stability reflects genuine pricing power or contract mix
- Goodwill and intangibles as a share of assets given apparent acquisition-driven growth
The e2e composite pins fair value at $430.55 (signal-adjusted $426.59) against a $513.21 price - roughly 17-20% overvalued. The three methods triangulate reasonably: DCF at $525 is the only one that supports today's price, but it looks generous given CACI's mid-single-digit organic growth profile; the EPV floor at $298 and anchored P/E at $374 both say the market is paying a premium for continued acceleration. Averaging in the middle lands near $430, which I trust more than any single line.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Organic vs acquired growth split in latest guidance
- Backlog book-to-bill and duration - is the growth really accelerating or catch-up post-CR?
- Assumptions in the DCF terminal growth and margin - is it modeling permanent margin expansion?
- Any large one-time contract wins inflating trailing earnings
The tape is neutral-to-mildly-constructive (VIX 16, S&P near highs) and CACI's low 0.54 beta means macro crosscurrents barely touch this name. Rates at 4.68% and a 26.9 market PE are a generic headwind for all equities, but defense-services names with visible government backlogs are exactly the profile investors hide in when the tape gets bumpy, so the macro pressure lands soft here. The active narrative - mission-critical intel/defense insider levered to cyber and modernization spend - is durable and moderate-intensity, and news flow in the last 72 hours actively feeds it: the $500M SkyValor counter-drone IDIQ win, an Oracle/OPM HRIT modernization partnership, and a peer read-through from Booz Allen ripping 11.9% on national-security demand. Third-party framing ('24% undervalued after SkyValor') is the kind of analyst tone that reinforces the bull story rather than challenges it. Net, there is a genuine but ordinary tailwind pressing on this name: the narrative is intact and being fed, the tape is benign, and the low-beta defensive character mutes any macro drag. It is not a mania - cult coefficient is low, intensity moderate - so this is a persistent gentle push, not a euphoric bid. The main sentiment risk is narrative fade if federal budget headlines turn hostile or if the peer group cools after Booz Allen's run.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Federal FY26 budget / continuing resolution headlines and any DoD or intel community program cut chatter
- Whether the BAH-led defense-services rally broadens or fades in coming weeks
- Sell-side target revisions post-SkyValor and Oracle/OPM announcements
- Any narrative crack around AI disrupting traditional IT services contractors
This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.
When we made this prediction on Aug 4, 2026, CACI was $512.66. We expect it to be $498.00 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $430.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 4, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.