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AGING Analysis Report
Aug 3, 2026
20 days ago · 100% complete
NOT DEPENDABLE This report predates a filing — its financial basis has been replaced.
Report generated: Aug 3, 2026 · Filing on record since: Aug 6, 2026 · 2 days after
For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page

What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Caci International Inc. (CACI) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.

Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Watch · Gem Score -8 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 55 · Value -59 · Sentiment 48 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $535.98 vs $513.21 at analysis

Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable reference-name attribute you can cite):

  • profile-header / price-overview — company profile, live quote, market cap
  • extended-analysisthe core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memo
  • future-predictions — our forward price-band predictions
  • market-narrative / ai-findings / gpt-critique — narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)
  • Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers): price-history, income-trend, key-metrics, financials (statement tables), insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.

More for machine readers: site briefing at /llms.txt · any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER · raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds); every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.

Caci International Inc.

CACI NYSE
Technology · Information Technology Services
Reston, VA 20190, United States caci.com Updated Aug 3, 11:39am
Price
$505.86
Market Cap
$11.0B
Employees
27,000
Beta
0.54
Avg Volume
288,467
CEO
Mr. John S. Mengucci

CACI International Inc. is a technology and professional services company that provides information solutions primarily to government clients. The company focuses on supporting national security missions and government modernization for U.S. intelligence, defense, and federal civilian agencies. Its offerings span enterprise IT, digital solutions, cyber security, command and control, communications, data and business analytics, and specialized engineering services. CACI International Inc. operates through domestic and international segments, with the domestic operations segment generating most of its business from U.S. federal agencies. Internationally, the company delivers IT services, data solutions, and software products, including through subsidiaries in Europe. Headquartered in Reston, Virginia, CACI International Inc. plays a significant role in helping government customers manage complex missions, modernize legacy systems, and enhance operational resilience across critical national security and public sector environments.

Runs with full report Generated: Aug 3, 2026 4:58pm
Price Overview
Price at report time
$513.21
as of Aug 3, 5:08pm (20d ago)
Change · Aug 3
+15.46 (+3.11%)
Day Range
$496.28 – $513.25
52-Week Range
$434.70 – $683.50
50-Day MA
$490.98
200-Day MA
$552.21
Volume
215,247.00
Right now · live
Log in to get the live feed
Members see the real-time price and the move since this report (over 20d).
Share Structure
Outstanding 22,091,000.00
Float 21,857,358.00
Free Float 98.9%
High free float — 98.9% of shares trade freely, ~1.1% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 5:08pm (20d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 5:08pm (20d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
TD Twelve Data statement HEX SEC filing
Industry comparison last run: Aug 3, 2026 4:56pm
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
HEX
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
22.98
Stock Price: $505.86
EPS (Diluted): 22.32
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
HEX
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
2.95
Stock Price: $505.86
Total Equity: $3.89B
Shares: 22,393,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
HEX
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
14.83
Market Cap: $11.00B
Total Debt: $2.92B
Cash: $106.18M
EBITDA: $959.31M
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
HEX
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$14.2B
Market Cap: $11.00B
Total Debt: $2.92B
Cash: $106.18M
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
HEX
Gross Profit / Revenue
Gross Profit: N/A
Revenue: $8.63B
Missing from API: Gross Profit
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
HEX
Operating Income / Revenue
8.9%
Operating Income: $764.19M
Revenue: $8.63B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
HEX
Net Income / Revenue
5.8%
Net Income: $499.83M
Revenue: $8.63B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
HEX
Net Income / Total Equity
12.8%
Net Income: $499.83M
Total Equity: $3.89B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
HEX
NOPAT / Invested Capital
9.4%
Operating Income: $764.19M
Tax Rate: 17.4%
Equity: $3.89B
Total Debt: $2.92B
Cash: $106.18M
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
HEX
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
1.47
Current Assets: $1.78B
Current Liabilities: $1.21B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
HEX
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.75
Short-Term Debt: $68.75M
Long-Term Debt: $2.85B
Total Debt: $2.92B
Total Equity: $3.89B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
HEX
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$385.29
Revenue: $8.63B
Shares: 22,393,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
HEX
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$173.89
Total Equity: $3.89B
Shares: 22,393,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
HEX
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$21.50
Operating CF: $547.01M
CapEx: -$65.60M
Shares: 22,393,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
TD
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
Last Dividend: $0.00
Stock Price: $505.86
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
HEX
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $499.83M
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Aug 3, 2026 4:56pm
Compares CACI against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 5:08pm (20d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $6.0B $6.2B $6.7B $7.7B $8.6B
Cost of Revenue
Gross Profit
Operating Expenses
Operating Income $539.5M $496.3M $567.5M $649.7M $764.2M
Net Income $457.4M $366.8M $384.7M $419.9M $499.8M
EBITDA $664.8M $631.0M $709.1M $791.9M $959.3M
EPS $18.52 $15.64 $16.59 $18.76 $22.47
EPS (Diluted) $18.30 $15.49 $16.43 $18.60 $22.32
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 4:49pm (20d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $88.0M $114.8M $115.8M $134.0M $106.2M
Total Current Assets $1.3B $1.2B $1.2B $1.4B $1.8B
Total Assets $6.2B $6.6B $6.6B $6.8B $8.6B
Current Liabilities $884.8M $1.0B $994.0M $1.1B $1.2B
Long-Term Debt $1.7B $1.7B $1.7B $1.5B $2.8B
Total Liabilities $3.5B $3.6B $3.4B $3.3B $4.8B
Total Equity $2.7B $3.1B $3.2B $3.5B $3.9B
Retained Earnings $3.2B $3.6B $3.9B $4.4B $4.9B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 5:08pm (20d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $592.2M $745.6M $388.1M $497.3M $547.0M
Capital Expenditure -$73.1M -$74.6M -$63.7M -$63.7M -$65.6M
Free Cash Flow $519.1M $671.0M $324.3M $433.6M $481.4M
Acquisitions (net) -$356.3M -$615.5M -$14.5M -$90.2M -$1.7B
Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) -$3.0B -$2.5B -$3.3B -$3.3B -$6.8B
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks -$509.1M -$9.8M -$273.2M -$161.5M -$168.6M
Net Change in Cash -$19.2M $26.8M $972,000 $18.2M -$27.8M
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 5:08pm (20d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +2.6% +8.1% +14.3% +12.6%
Gross Profit Growth
Operating Income Growth -8.0% +14.3% +14.5% +17.6%
Net Income Growth -19.8% +4.9% +9.1% +19.0%
EBITDA Growth -5.1% +12.4% +11.7% +21.1%
0Company Classification 1Industry Landscape 2Company Momentum 3Forward Projection 4aDCF Valuation 4bEarnings Power Value 4cAnchored PE 4dReverse DCF 4eRevenue-Based DCF 4fAnchored P/S 4gScenario Analysis 4hDividend Discount Model 4iBook Value Analysis 4jInsider Activity 4fCash Flow Quality 4gDebt Maturity Risk 4hMacro Environment 4iSector Intelligence 4jRevenue Confidence 4kSensitivity Analysis 4lSector Demand Cycle 5AI Investigation 5bThesis Evaluation 6Valuation Synthesis
computed not applicable 18 computed · 6 not applicable
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for CACI — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
Independent analyst synthesis · claude-opus-4-7 · generated 2026-08-03 17:07:30
Verdict Fairly valued near $505 with modest upside to $540-560; synthesis's $430 fair value is too harsh for a 13% grower with 96% FCF conversion — add on pullbacks below $460, don't chase here.

Looking at the raw numbers first: CACI is compounding revenue at ~13% (FY21 $6.04B → FY25 $8.63B) with net income growing from $367M in FY22 to $500M in FY25 (~11% CAGR ex the anomalous FY21 $457M figure). The most recent quarter (Mar 2026) hit $2.35B revenue, up 8.3% YoY vs the $2.17B comp — that's a genuine deceleration from the 12-13% prints earlier in the trailing window. Net margins are sticky in the 5.2-5.8% band with a one-off 6.9% pop in Jun 2025. This is textbook government IT services: low-margin, high-visibility, capital-light (capex $66M on $547M OCF). FCF conversion of 96% of net income is real. Debt/equity of 0.75 and $2.92B debt against $106M cash is levered but serviceable at ~$500M NI.

On valuation: at $505.86 and ~21.7M shares (implied from $11B cap), TTM EPS is roughly $25 (sum of last 4Q NI ~$537M / 21.7M), giving forward P/E ~20x — not the 23x annual figure. EV/EBITDA of 14.8x for a 13% grower with 96% FCF conversion is not egregious; peers like SAIC and Leidos trade at 12-14x with slower growth. The synthesis composite fair value of $430 assumes something like 15-16x forward earnings, which implies CACI should trade at a discount to its own history and to faster-growing defense IT peers. I don't buy that. FCF of $481M on an $11B cap is a 4.4% FCF yield, and if FCF grows even 10% annually (well below the 21.8% CAGR), you get a mid-teens IRR without multiple expansion.

Where I'd push back on the prior models: the synthesis "fully_priced" verdict at -16.8% leans on DCF assumptions I'd want to see stress-tested — CACI's backlog visibility and the DoD/IC spending cycle under the current administration argue for continued high-single-digit organic growth plus tuck-in M&A. Market Forces flagging "aggressively leveraged" is overwrought at 0.75x D/E and ~2x net debt/EBITDA for a company with contracted federal revenue. The narrative layer's 80/20 fundamentals/story split feels right, and the "steady-compounder, anchored" framing is the correct lens. The contrarian case: revenue growth IS decelerating (12.6% recent YoY is the slowest quarterly print in the window), margins aren't expanding, and ROIC of 9.4% is below the likely cost of capital for a levered contractor — so this isn't a value-creating compounder in the Buffett sense, it's a capital-recycler that needs continued M&A to sustain double-digit top line. If federal budget continuing resolutions drag into 2026 or DOGE-style cuts hit IT services procurement, the 13% CAGR compresses to 5-7% and the multiple de-rates.

Insider activity is uninformative — small option exercises and a 264-share sale is noise, not signal. The dates showing 2026-07-13 for a stock at $505 in what should be current time suggests either forward-dated filings or a data anomaly worth flagging but not actionable. My verdict: I dissent from the synthesis "fully priced at $430" — that's too punitive for a business generating $480M FCF growing double digits with durable federal demand. But I also don't see this as a screaming bargain; the momentum deceleration and 9.4% ROIC keep me from table-pounding. Fair value is closer to $520-560 (20-22x forward EPS of ~$26, or 15-16x EV/EBITDA), roughly in line with today's price. I'd call it fairly valued with a modest positive skew — a hold with willingness to add on any pullback to the $440-460 range where the risk/reward genuinely tilts favorable.

GPT Reading
Independent reading · gpt-5.4 · generated 2026-08-03 17:07:47
Verdict Fairly valued to slightly overvalued at $505.86 — excellent execution is real, but with margins still stuck near 5.5%-6% and FCF yield only ~4.4%, fair value looks closer to $450-$480 unless profitability steps up.

What stands out is that CACI is executing like a better business than its “mature contractor” label suggests, but the stock already reflects most of that improvement. Revenue has stepped up from $6.70B in FY2023 to $7.66B in FY2024 and $8.63B in FY2025, a two-year CAGR of roughly 13.5%, which is excellent for a federal IT/services name. The quarterly run-rate has also moved convincingly higher: from $2.04B in June 2024 to $2.35B in March 2026, with the last four quarters totaling about $9.16B. That says the growth is not just an annual accounting artifact; the business is genuinely larger. Net income is following, from $419.9M in FY2024 to $499.8M in FY2025, and the recent four-quarter sum is about $518.5M. The issue is that this growth is not translating into a materially better margin structure. Quarterly net margins are stuck in a narrow 5.2%-6.9% band, mostly around 5.5%-5.6%, and FY2025 operating margin was 8.9%. So the story is scale and consistency, not a business discovering operating leverage.

That matters for valuation. At roughly $11.0B market cap and $505.86 per share, investors are paying about 1.2x the current annualized revenue run-rate, around 21x the last four quarters of earnings, and nearly 23x trailing annual earnings. For a company with mid-teens top-line growth recently, that is not absurd. But for a business with sub-6% net margins, 9.4% ROIC, and real balance-sheet leverage, it is not obviously cheap either. Net debt is about $2.81B against just $106M of cash, which leaves enterprise value meaningfully above market cap and helps explain the 14.8x EV/EBITDA. Free cash flow of $481.4M is solid, but that is only a roughly 4.4% FCF yield on the equity value. That is fine for a high-quality compounder; it is not enough for me to call the shares mispriced when the underlying economics still look contractor-like rather than software-like.

The bull case depends on treating CACI as a durable federal modernization compounder that deserves a premium to generic government services peers, and there is real evidence for that. The company has now posted seven straight quarters of year-over-year revenue growth, and the latest quarter’s $2.35B was up about 8% sequentially from $2.17B a year earlier and roughly 13% year over year. Net income in that same March quarter rose from $111.9M to $130.4M, up about 17%. Annual operating income rose from $567.5M in FY2023 to $649.7M in FY2024 and $764.2M in FY2025, showing disciplined execution. The balance sheet is not pristine, but debt to equity below 0.75 and a current ratio of 1.47 do not suggest strain. If you believe federal cyber, intelligence, and modernization budgets remain robust, then a company growing revenue double digits while producing half a billion dollars of annual FCF can plausibly deserve a low-20s earnings multiple. That is the best argument against my caution: the market may be paying up not for margin expansion, but for the rarity of predictable double-digit growth in a mission-critical government niche.

I weigh that argument differently because the recent numbers still show a ceiling on profitability. The most recent three quarters all printed net margins between 5.5% and 5.6%, and even the better June 2025 quarter at 6.9% did not mark a new normal. If this is the earnings power, then upside from here needs continued high-single-digit to low-double-digit revenue growth just to support the current multiple. Any slowdown toward a more typical government-services pace would make 22x-23x earnings look rich quickly, especially with EV/revenue already at 1.65x for a people-intensive contractor. The lack of notable insider buying also deprives the bull case of an easy signal. I do not see a broken stock or a short, but I do see a company priced for continued clean execution with limited room for budget hiccups, procurement delays, or integration slippage.

What would change my mind is straightforward. If the next few quarters show revenue sustaining above a $9.4B annualized run-rate while net margins move durably above 6.2%-6.5%, that would imply CACI is finally converting scale into better economics, and I would support a valuation north of $550. Conversely, if revenue growth slips back toward mid-single digits while quarterly net income stays around $120M-$130M, then the stock should de-rate toward 18x-19x earnings, which points closer to $430-$460. The key is not another contract-win headline; it is whether the company can prove that recent growth is durable without leaning harder on leverage or accepting flat profitability.

Grok Reading
Independent reading · grok-4.5 · generated 2026-08-03 17:08:35
Verdict Solid 13% compounder with clean FCF, but $506 prices in continued mid-teens growth that is already cooling—fair value nearer $460-480

The raw numbers describe a government IT contractor that has quietly accelerated rather than merely matured. Revenue compounded from $6.04B in FY2021 to $8.63B in FY2025, with the latest four quarters already annualizing above $9.1B; the 13.5% revenue CAGR and 14% earnings CAGR sit well above the mid-single-digit slog typical of pure-play federal services peers. Free-cash-flow conversion is the cleanest part of the story: $481M FCF on only $66M of capex yields a 4.4% FCF yield at the $11B market cap, and FCF itself has grown at a 21.8% CAGR. Operating margins have held in an 8–9% band while net margins hover at 5.5–5.8%, exactly what a labor-heavy, low-asset contractor should produce. The balance sheet is the visible friction—$2.92B of debt against $106M cash leaves net leverage near 0.75× equity and an EV/FCF multiple north of 28×—yet interest coverage on $764M of operating income remains comfortable. Recent quarterly prints show the growth rate cooling: the March 2026 quarter grew only 8.3% year-over-year versus the mid-teens pace of earlier periods, confirming the secondary signal of decelerating revenue confidence.

At $505.86 the stock trades at 23× trailing earnings, 14.8× EV/EBITDA and 1.65× EV/sales. Those multiples embed a modest premium to the 18–20× range usual for government IT names, which is defensible only if the 12–14% growth rate persists. The valuation models’ $427–430 fair-value cluster therefore looks roughly 15% too pessimistic; it under-weights the durability of multi-year intelligence and cyber contracts and the fact that CACI is still taking share inside a secular modernization budget. Still, a 23× multiple on 5.8% net margins with visible sequential deceleration leaves little room for execution slips or a slower federal appropriations cycle. Insider activity is noise—routine option exercises and a trivial sale—so it supplies no incremental signal either way.

The strongest counter-argument is that the market has already marked the stock down ~25% from its peak and is therefore no longer pricing perfection. A skeptic would note that 13%+ growth at this scale, sticky mission-critical work, and pristine FCF quality justify the entire premium; any re-acceleration in the next two quarters would make today’s 20× forward multiple look cheap. That case has merit on the cash-flow math, yet it ignores the leverage and the macro headwinds already flagged: a continuing resolution or delayed defense bill would hit backlog conversion immediately, and the elevated net debt amplifies any earnings miss. I weigh the deceleration and the thin cash buffer more heavily than the historical growth rate because government spending is binary in the short run.

Two concrete data points would flip the view: (1) the next two quarters re-accelerating to double-digit organic revenue growth with backlog coverage above 1.5×, or (2) net debt pay-down that drops leverage below 0.5× while FCF stays above $500M. Absent those, the stock sits a modest stretch above intrinsic value.

Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Each AI above independently stated a direction (undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued) and how strongly it believes it (conviction, 0–5). We combine those into a Bull-Bear Index on a 0–10 scale: 5 is neutral, 10 is maximum bullish (undervalued at full conviction), 0 is maximum bearish. We compute the score ourselves with the same arithmetic for every seat — the models never grade their own bullishness — so the three are directly comparable. Δ shows how far each seat sits from the panel average of 4.0; a large Δ marks the dissenting voice, usually the one worth reading.
Claude claude-opus-4-7 5.0
fairly valued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +1.0 vs panel · self: 6.0
GPT gpt-5.4 5.0
fairly valued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +1.0 vs panel · self: 4.0
Grok grok-4.5 2.0
overvalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ -2.0 vs panel · self: 4.0
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-08-03 17:59:31
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality - wait for a dip 7/10
Great federal-services compounder at the wrong price - wait for the low $400s before I do anything real.
The cruxWhether today's $513 tape holds requires the market to keep paying a premium multiple for mid-teens growth into a period where organic growth is likely to cool and budget headlines can hit the narrative fast.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from CACI's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionShare Count Shrinking
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The four lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+55
Strong
edge √Σ 113 · risk √Σ 51 · conf 8/10

CACI is a mature federal IT/services earner showing consistent, accelerating growth: revenue $6.04B to $8.63B over five years (roughly 9% CAGR, with 12.7% in the latest year), operating margin stable in the 8-9% band, and net income advancing to $499.8M. Cash generation is real - FCF averaged around $486M/yr and OCF/NI of 1.32x with accruals at -1.9% of assets indicate clean earnings. Altman Z of 3.54 sits in the safe zone.

Strengths 3
m70
Consistent revenue and earnings compounding
Revenue grew from $6.04B to $8.63B over 5 years with margins holding at 8-9%; net income up from $457M to $500M and latest year revenue growth of 12.7% is an acceleration.
m65
Clean earnings quality
OCF/NI 1.32x, accruals -1.9% of assets, Altman Z 3.54 (safe). No mechanical red flags; FCF of $481M closely tracks reported NI of $500M.
m60
Per-share value concentration
Diluted shares fell 2.7%/yr from 25.0M to 22.4M; buybacks are 5.2x SBC and SBC is only 0.7% of revenue - unusually disciplined for a services/IT firm.
Concerns 2
m45
Meaningful net debt with thin liquid cash
Net debt of $2.81B versus only $106M cash on hand; cash is 1% of market cap. FCF of $481M covers it, but there is no balance-sheet cushion for a shock or a downturn in federal spending.
m25
Customer concentration risk implied by business model
As a federal IT/defense services firm, revenue is heavily tied to US government contracts - a structural durability question not visible in the derived data.
This is a solid, well-run federal services compounder - the kind of business that quietly earns its keep. Numbers tie out: cash follows earnings, share count is going the right way, and growth just accelerated. The one thing that keeps me from calling it elite is the leverage - $2.81B net debt against $106M cash means any hiccup in federal budgeting or a bad acquisition would bite. Management behavior looks disciplined (low SBC, real buybacks), and insider activity is routine noise. Strong business, not a fortress.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Debt maturity schedule and covenants behind the $2.81B net debt position
  • Backlog composition, funded vs unfunded, and top-customer/contract concentration
  • Organic vs acquired revenue growth split - how much of the $2.6B revenue rise came from M&A
  • Whether operating margin stability reflects genuine pricing power or contract mix
  • Goodwill and intangibles as a share of assets given apparent acquisition-driven growth
Valuation / Mispricing
-59
Rich
edge √Σ 30 · risk √Σ 98 · conf 7/10
Price $513 vs deserved ~$430 - roughly 17-19% above fair value, no margin of safety. attractive below $430.00

The e2e composite pins fair value at $430.55 (signal-adjusted $426.59) against a $513.21 price - roughly 17-20% overvalued. The three methods triangulate reasonably: DCF at $525 is the only one that supports today's price, but it looks generous given CACI's mid-single-digit organic growth profile; the EPV floor at $298 and anchored P/E at $374 both say the market is paying a premium for continued acceleration. Averaging in the middle lands near $430, which I trust more than any single line.

Cheap signals 1
m30
DCF supports the tape
The DCF at $525 slightly exceeds price, so a bull who trusts the growth ramp can argue fair. But it is the outlier of the three methods and likely runs hot on out-year assumptions.
Rich / priced-in 4
m62
17% above composite fair value
Composite FV $430.55 vs $513.21 price implies -17% forward return before any multiple compression; the signal-adjusted FV of $426.59 confirms.
m55
Anchored P/E says $374
The historical multiple check pegs CACI at $374 - the current price demands a permanently re-rated multiple, i.e. the market must accept that mid-cycle defense modernization spend is structural not cyclical.
m45
EPV floor at $297.60
Steady-state earning power is only 58% of price - meaning ~42% of the market cap is embedded growth. Not absurd for a compounder, but it leaves no cushion if federal budgets slip.
m25
Leverage isn't in the discount
$2.81B net debt vs $106M cash - a strong balance sheet story it is not. Deserved value should carry a small haircut for financial risk that the current price ignores.
Good business, wrong price. Two of three methods say fair value is in the $300s-$400s and only an optimistic DCF gets me to today's tape. I don't short compounders and I don't chase them either - I'd want CACI at least in the low $430s before it's interesting, and I'd back the truck at $375. At $513 the market is paying full freight for a decent-but-levered federal services shop; there's no edge here.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Organic vs acquired growth split in latest guidance
  • Backlog book-to-bill and duration - is the growth really accelerating or catch-up post-CR?
  • Assumptions in the DCF terminal growth and margin - is it modeling permanent margin expansion?
  • Any large one-time contract wins inflating trailing earnings
General Sentiment
+48
Tailwind
tail √Σ 89 · head √Σ 36 · conf 6/10

The tape is neutral-to-mildly-constructive (VIX 16, S&P near highs) and CACI's low 0.54 beta means macro crosscurrents barely touch this name. Rates at 4.68% and a 26.9 market PE are a generic headwind for all equities, but defense-services names with visible government backlogs are exactly the profile investors hide in when the tape gets bumpy, so the macro pressure lands soft here. The active narrative - mission-critical intel/defense insider levered to cyber and modernization spend - is durable and moderate-intensity, and news flow in the last 72 hours actively feeds it: the $500M SkyValor counter-drone IDIQ win, an Oracle/OPM HRIT modernization partnership, and a peer read-through from Booz Allen ripping 11.9% on national-security demand. Third-party framing ('24% undervalued after SkyValor') is the kind of analyst tone that reinforces the bull story rather than challenges it. Net, there is a genuine but ordinary tailwind pressing on this name: the narrative is intact and being fed, the tape is benign, and the low-beta defensive character mutes any macro drag. It is not a mania - cult coefficient is low, intensity moderate - so this is a persistent gentle push, not a euphoric bid. The main sentiment risk is narrative fade if federal budget headlines turn hostile or if the peer group cools after Booz Allen's run.

Tailwinds 4
m55
Durable defense-insider narrative being actively fed
The steady-compounder story around intel/cyber/defense modernization is durable, and the SkyValor $500M IDIQ and Oracle/OPM wins in the last 72 hours give the narrative fresh proof points rather than letting it stale out.
m45
Positive peer read-through from Booz Allen
BAH up 11.9% in a month on national-security demand pulls the whole federal services cohort into a favorable light and invites rotation into CACI as the cleaner mission-critical name.
m40
Analyst framing tilts constructive
Third-party coverage explicitly calling the stock '24% undervalued' post-SkyValor is the kind of tone that anchors bulls and pressures shorts, even if it is not top-tier sell-side.
m35
Low beta insulates from macro drag
Beta 0.54 in a neutral tape with VIX 16 means higher rates and stretched market PE press only lightly here; defense services is exactly where risk-averse capital parks.
Headwinds 2
m30
Narrative premium leaves no room for a budget scare
The ~20% valuation premium is doing narrative work; any headline about federal budget delays, CR fights, or DOGE-style contractor scrutiny would compress that premium fast given moderate (not fanatical) conviction.
m20
Generic macro drag from rates and market PE
10y at 4.68% and market PE 26.9 is a background headwind for all equities, but heavily muted by CACI's low beta and defensive sector.
Net tailwind, but a measured one. The defense-insider story is durable and being actively reinforced by real contract wins, the peer tape (BAH ripping) is supportive, and CACI's 0.54 beta means the mildly-jittery macro barely lands. This is not a euphoric bid - cult is low, intensity moderate - so the push is a persistent gentle lift rather than a mania. The one thing that would flip me is a federal budget or contractor-scrutiny headline hitting the narrative premium; absent that, sentiment leans in this name's favor.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Federal FY26 budget / continuing resolution headlines and any DoD or intel community program cut chatter
  • Whether the BAH-led defense-services rally broadens or fades in coming weeks
  • Sell-side target revisions post-SkyValor and Oracle/OPM announcements
  • Any narrative crack around AI disrupting traditional IT services contractors
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
Growth Outlook
not run

This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.

The forward growth verdict — is the business itself likely to grow (next 2 quarters / year 1 / years 2–3), judged against its category and against printed expectations. The full horizon ladder + creme renders on the Growth Outlook card above. Not a call on the price (Valuation owns that) or the tape (Sentiment owns that).
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Lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure), and Growth Outlook (the forward growth verdict). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Price Prediction
About flat -2.9% v0.6.0 View full prediction →

When we made this prediction on Aug 4, 2026, CACI was $512.66. We expect it to be $498.00 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $430.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 4, 2026.

Price when predicted$512.66
Our estimate for Feb 2027$498.00-2.9%
Great value below$430.00
Price history shown (6 Months)

Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.

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My Notes personal — only you see this
v1.1.562 · 9b2927c4 · 2026-08-22 16:52:06