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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Low · Gem Score -40 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 6 · Value -78 · Sentiment 0 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $168.02 vs $262.75 at analysis
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profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
price-history,income-trend,key-metrics,financials(statement tables),insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.
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any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER ·
raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds);
every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.
Constellation Energy Corporation
CEG NASDAQConstellation Energy Corporation is an American energy company headquartered in Baltimore, Maryland. It produces and sells electricity, natural gas, and other energy-related products and services across the United States, serving distribution utilities, municipalities, cooperatives, and customers in the commercial, industrial, public sector, and residential markets. Constellation Energy Corporation operates through regional segments including the Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, New York, ERCOT, and Other Power Regions. Its generation portfolio includes nuclear, wind, solar, natural gas, and hydroelectric assets, supporting a broad mix of power supply and sustainable energy offerings. The company plays a central role in the U.S. utility sector by providing large-scale energy generation, retail supply, and energy management solutions to a wide range of end users.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 7.40
Total Equity: $14.85B
Shares: 314,000,000
Total Debt: $7.34B
Cash: $3.64B
EBITDA: $4.05B
Total Debt: $7.34B
Cash: $3.64B
Revenue: $25.53B
Revenue: $25.53B
Revenue: $25.53B
Total Equity: $14.85B
Tax Rate: 33.8%
Equity: $14.85B
Total Debt: $7.34B
Cash: $3.64B
Current Liabilities: $7.94B
Long-Term Debt: $7.25B
Total Debt: $7.34B
Total Equity: $14.85B
Shares: 314,000,000
Shares: 314,000,000
CapEx: -$2.95B
Shares: 314,000,000
Stock Price: $262.75
Net Income: $2.32B
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 11:45pm (20d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $19.6B | $24.4B | $24.9B | $23.6B | $25.5B |
| Cost of Revenue | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gross Profit | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating Expenses | $20.2B | $23.9B | $23.3B | $19.3B | $22.4B |
| Operating Income | -$346.0M | $495.0M | $1.6B | $4.4B | $3.1B |
| Net Income | -$205.0M | -$160.0M | $1.6B | $3.7B | $2.3B |
| EBITDA | $2.6B | $1.6B | $2.7B | $5.5B | $4.1B |
| EPS | $0.00 | $-0.49 | $5.02 | $11.91 | $7.40 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.00 | $-0.49 | $5.01 | $11.89 | $7.40 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 11:32pm (20d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | — | $422.0M | $368.0M | $3.0B | $3.6B |
| Total Current Assets | — | $9.4B | $8.3B | $10.8B | $12.1B |
| Total Assets | — | $46.9B | $50.8B | $52.9B | $57.2B |
| Current Liabilities | — | $7.8B | $6.3B | $6.8B | $7.9B |
| Long-Term Debt | — | $4.5B | $7.5B | $7.4B | $7.3B |
| Total Liabilities | — | $35.5B | $39.5B | $39.4B | $42.4B |
| Total Equity | $0 | $11.4B | $11.3B | $13.5B | $14.9B |
| Retained Earnings | — | -$496.0M | $761.0M | $4.1B | $5.9B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 11:45pm (20d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | -$1.3B | -$2.4B | -$5.3B | -$2.5B | $4.2B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$1.3B | -$1.7B | -$2.4B | -$2.6B | -$2.9B |
| Free Cash Flow | -$2.7B | -$4.0B | -$7.7B | -$5.0B | $1.3B |
| Acquisitions (net) | -$30.0M | -$29.0M | -$1.7B | -$32.0M | -$14.0M |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | $47.0M | -$1.1B | $3.0B | $799.0M | -$1.1B |
| Dividends Paid | $0 | -$185.0M | -$366.0M | -$444.0M | -$486.0M |
| Stock Buybacks | $0 | $0 | -$992.0M | -$999.0M | -$400.0M |
| Net Change in Cash | — | — | — | — | — |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 11:45pm (20d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +24.4% | +2.0% | -5.4% | +8.3% |
| Gross Profit Growth | — | — | — | — |
| Operating Income Growth | +243.1% | +225.3% | +170.3% | -29.1% |
| Net Income Growth | +22.0% | +1,114.4% | +131.0% | -38.1% |
| EBITDA Growth | -40.2% | +72.0% | +103.2% | -25.7% |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 11:33pm (20d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | $0.43 | — | — | — |
| 2026-03-09 | $0.43 | — | — | — |
| 2025-11-17 | $0.39 | — | — | — |
| 2025-08-18 | $0.39 | — | — | — |
| 2025-05-16 | $0.39 | — | — | — |
| 2025-03-07 | $0.39 | — | — | — |
| 2024-11-15 | $0.35 | — | — | — |
| 2024-08-12 | $0.35 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-29 | $0.35 | — | — | — |
| 2024-03-07 | $0.35 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-16 | $0.28 | — | — | — |
| 2023-08-11 | $0.28 | — | — | — |
| 2023-05-11 | $0.28 | — | — | — |
| 2023-02-24 | $0.28 | — | — | — |
| 2022-11-14 | $0.14 | — | — | — |
| 2022-08-12 | $0.14 | — | — | — |
| 2022-05-12 | $0.14 | — | — | — |
| 2022-02-24 | $0.14 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Risk : Reward — if the last quarter repeats
Live · as of 2026-08-19 08:41Recovery pays +57%; another quarter like the worst recent one costs 73%. Ratio 0.8:1.
| Case | Growth | Margin | Fair value | vs price ($262.75) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull — recovery | +49% | 12.7% | $413.40 | +57% |
| Base — stabilizes | +33% | 11.1% | $237.01 | -10% |
| Bear — keeps slipping | +16% | 9.4% | $129.28 | -51% |
| Stress — last quarter repeats | +0% | 8.2% | $70.40 | -73% |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
The raw numbers tell a genuinely strange story that the models are papering over. The March 2026 quarter shows $11.12B revenue and $1.59B net income — that's nearly double every prior quarter's revenue and would annualize to ~$44B versus the trailing $25.5B for 2025. If real, this is a step-change, not a trend. But look at Q1 2025: $6.79B rev, $118M NI (1.7% margin) versus Q1 2024-style ~$5.5B and 15% margins. Q4 2025 collapsed to 7.1% margins too. That volatility screams mark-to-market hedge accounting on the power book, not structural earnings power. The 2025 full-year op income of $3.09B was actually *down* from $4.35B in 2024 despite revenue growth — margin compression, not expansion. The "temporary 2025 earnings compression masking structural margin expansion" claim from Market Forces is asserting causation the data does not yet demonstrate.
On multiples: 35.5x P/E, 24x EV/EBITDA, and 5.55x P/B for an IPP with 15.6% ROE and 1.2% revenue CAGR is extreme. Independent power peers (Vistra, Talen, NRG) trade richly too on the same AI-nuclear thesis, so CEG isn't uniquely mispriced within its cohort — but that's cold comfort if the whole cohort is riding narrative. FCF of $1.29B on $93.8B market cap is a 1.4% FCF yield; dividend yield 0.6%. The synthesis DCF at $139 and the market forces "50%+ upside" verdict are diametrically opposed, and the synthesis is closer to defensible arithmetic. The market-forces model is essentially restating the bull narrative as analysis — I'd discount it heavily.
Where I'd push back on the synthesis, though: a $118 composite fair value implies CEG should trade like a 2022-era regulated-adjacent IPP, and that ignores real option value. The Meta and Microsoft PPAs (Three Mile Island restart at reportedly ~$100+/MWh vs ~$40 merchant) are signed, not hypothetical, and nuclear PTC floors downside. A fair value in the $150-180 range — say 20-22x a normalized $8-9 EPS run-rate assuming hyperscaler contracts layer in over 3-5 years — is more defensible than $139, but still leaves the stock 30-40% overvalued at $263. The contrarian bull case requires believing (a) the Q1 2026 $11B print is a new baseline not a hedge-driven spike, (b) PJM capacity prices stay at record ~$270/MW-day levels through the next auction, and (c) SMR/relicensing execution is clean. Each is plausible; all three together at current pricing is the ask, and that's a stack of conditional probabilities the models aren't discounting.
Data gaps worth flagging: the insider activity is 100% awards (grants), zero open-market buys or sells — Secondary Signals labels this "No Insider Transactions" which is misleading; it's "no informative insider transactions," and the absence of buying at $263 by executives receiving grants is itself a mild negative tell. The FCF CAGR is blank, which matters because capex is running $2.95B against $4.24B OCF — reinvestment intensity is high and rising if the AI-data-center capex cycle demands new build or uprates. The "accelerating quarterly revenue trend" signal is arithmetically true but driven by one anomalous quarter; I would not extrapolate. Also worth noting: 2026 quarterly dates in the data suggest either the file is forward-dated or these are recent actuals — either way the Q1 2026 outlier deserves an earnings-call read before being trusted.
I largely agree with the synthesis direction (overvalued) but think its magnitude is too harsh and its "poor cash flow quality" flag is over-weighted — commodity power generators always have lumpy working capital. Market Forces is wrong on the setup; it's confusing narrative durability with fundamental support. The Narrative Economics layer is the most honest read here: an 89% premium to steady-state DCF, moderate narrative durability, crowded trade. My fair value anchor is $170-190, implying 25-35% downside, but with asymmetric tail risk if a hyperscaler signs another headline PPA or PJM capacity auction prints high again. This isn't a short — utilities with narrative momentum and policy tailwinds can stay expensive for years — but at 35x earnings with decelerating margins and $1.29B FCF, new money here is paying for a story that requires flawless execution across a decade. Trim, don't chase.
GPT Reading
Constellation is being valued less like a utility or merchant generator and more like a scarce infrastructure platform, and the raw numbers do not yet support that leap. At $262.75, the equity is worth $93.8B against 2025 net income of $2.32B, free cash flow of just $1.29B, and equity of $14.85B. That is 35.5x earnings, 5.6x book, 3.2x sales, and 24.1x EV/EBITDA for a business whose five-year revenue CAGR is only 1.2%. The most striking thing in the data is that the valuation premium has expanded while the income statement has become less impressive: revenue rose from $23.57B in 2024 to $25.53B in 2025, but operating income fell from $4.35B to $3.09B and net income dropped from $3.75B to $2.32B. In other words, investors are paying materially more for a business that, on annual reported earnings, just experienced margin compression rather than expansion.
The quarterlies reinforce that this is not a clean compounding story. The latest quarter, 2026-03-31, looks huge on revenue at $11.12B versus $6.79B a year earlier, and net income improved from $118M to $1.59B, but that follows a 2025 year in which quarterly earnings were highly uneven: net margin swung from 1.7% in 2025-03 to 13.8%, 14.2%, and then back to 7.1% in 2025-12. That volatility matters because the current multiple implies the market sees a structurally advantaged earnings stream. Yet the annual record says something else: 2021 and 2022 were loss years, 2023 recovered to $1.62B, 2024 jumped to $3.75B, and 2025 fell back to $2.32B. This looks like a good but cyclical and contract-sensitive power merchant with valuable assets, not a stable annuity. Even with a decent balance sheet — $7.34B debt against $3.64B cash, current ratio 1.53, debt/equity 0.49 — the equity valuation is doing almost all the work here.
Cash generation is the biggest anchor on the bull case. Operating cash flow of $4.24B is respectable, but capex of $2.95B leaves only $1.29B of free cash flow, which is a sub-1.5% FCF yield on the current market cap. For a company in a capital-intensive sector with aging nuclear assets and ongoing reinvestment needs, that is an aggressive price. Return metrics are solid but not extraordinary relative to the valuation: ROE 15.6% and ROIC 11.0% are good, but not the kind of franchise economics that justify a software-like multiple on a utility-adjacent business. The tiny 0.62% dividend yield also tells you this is not being priced as a conventional defensive power name. If the market is right, future contracts and capacity values must drive a major step-up in sustainable cash earnings well beyond what 2025 reported.
The strongest pushback is that the annual 2025 figures may be the wrong lens because they likely understate the inflection now underway. The latest quarter’s $1.59B net income on $11.12B of revenue is dramatically better than the $118M earned in the year-ago quarter, and if that level of profitability is even partly durable, the current P/E based on trailing earnings could compress quickly. A smart bull would also point out that the company has already proven it can earn at much higher levels — 2024 net income was $3.75B, with quarterly margins reaching 18.3% and 15.8% in the back half — so this is not a purely hypothetical upside case. Net debt is modest relative to enterprise value, and if premium long-duration power contracts are coming, especially for always-on carbon-free supply, the replacement value of Constellation’s fleet may be far above book value. That is the one argument that makes a simple peer-multiple comparison dangerous: these assets may be uniquely scarce in a tightening power market.
I still come out bearish because scarcity value is already more than fully capitalized. To justify $93.8B, I would want to see not just one strong quarter but a clear annualized earnings run-rate above 2024’s peak and free cash flow moving meaningfully above $3B despite heavy capex. What would change my mind is evidence that 2026 is not merely a rebound from a weak 2025 base: specifically, multiple consecutive quarters with revenue in the $8B+ range excluding one-offs, net margins consistently above 14%, and full-year free cash flow at least doubling from $1.29B. If operating income returns toward or above the 2024 level of $4.35B while cash conversion improves, the current premium would look less speculative. Until then, the stock looks priced for a best-case nuclear/AI demand regime before the financials have actually delivered it.
Grok Reading
The raw numbers describe a mature merchant generator whose top line has barely moved in four years—revenue CAGR of 1.2 percent, 2025 sales of $25.53 billion only modestly above 2024’s $23.57 billion—while earnings have been violently cyclical. Net income swung from a $160 million loss in 2022 to $3.75 billion in 2024 and then back down to $2.32 billion in 2025; operating income compressed from $4.35 billion to $3.09 billion in a single year. Free cash flow of $1.29 billion after $2.95 billion of capex produces a sub-1.4 percent FCF yield on the $94 billion equity value. Balance-sheet metrics are serviceable (net debt roughly $3.7 billion, debt-to-equity 0.49, current ratio 1.53), yet they do not justify a 35.5× P/E, 24× EV/EBITDA or 5.6× book multiple for a business still posting mid-single-digit operating margins and a 9 percent net margin. The single data point that leaps out is the March 2026 quarter: revenue exploded to $11.12 billion and net income to $1.59 billion. That is either the first visible cash-flow realization of the hyperscaler nuclear PPAs the market has been pricing, or an outlier that will reverse. Until several more quarters confirm permanence, the valuation rests almost entirely on narrative rather than demonstrated run-rate cash generation.
The prior models split cleanly: the quantitative synthesis tags the stock 47 percent overvalued at a $139 signal-adjusted fair value, while the market-forces layer calls for 50 percent upside on AI-driven re-rating. Both cannot be right. The quantitative side is closer to the observable economics. Even if one annualizes the outsized Q1 2026 result, the implied run-rate still leaves the shares trading at a large premium to any historical IPP or regulated-utility multiple. Cash-flow quality is flagged as poor, ROIC is only 11 percent, and the 19.5 percent earnings CAGR is largely the arithmetic of climbing out of 2021–22 losses rather than structural margin expansion. The nuclear fleet is real and strategically scarce, but scarcity alone does not convert a 1 percent revenue grower into a 35× earnings asset unless multi-decade, above-market PPAs are already locked and visible in the numbers—which they are not yet.
The strongest counter-argument is precisely that March quarter and the policy backdrop. If the $11 billion revenue print marks the start of a structural step-change—Microsoft, Amazon and other hyperscalers converting LOIs into firm, high-price, long-duration offtake—then trailing multiples are backward-looking and the DCF of $139 systematically understates terminal value. Nuclear’s carbon-free baseload attributes, IRA support, and the physical impossibility of building equivalent capacity quickly give Constellation a genuine moat that traditional utility comps lack. A smart bull would also note that 2025’s earnings compression looks temporary against the longer arc from losses to multi-billion profitability, and that modest leverage leaves room for both capex and dividends. I weigh this less heavily because the market has already capitalized an extremely optimistic version of that story: an 89 percent premium to the fundamental DCF, cult-like narrative intensity, and a price that embeds perfect execution on relicensing, contract conversion and sustained scarcity rents. Crowded narratives with moderate durability leave little margin for any slippage in AI capex or regulatory friction.
I would reverse to a neutral or constructive stance if two consecutive quarters after March 2026 sustain revenue above $8–9 billion with net margins holding near 14 percent, or if management discloses multi-gigawatt PPAs at clear premiums to legacy hedges with investment-grade counterparties and durations beyond 2035. A sustained lift in free-cash-flow toward $3 billion-plus would also force a re-rating of the yield math. Absent those prints, the gap between $263 and fundamental value remains a valuation problem, not a growth story still undiscovered.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Constellation is a mature power producer that has clearly re-rated operationally: operating margin went from -1.8% in 2021 to 18.5% in 2024 before settling at 12.1% in 2025, while net income swung from a $205M loss in 2021 to $3.75B in 2024 and $2.32B in 2025 on $25.5B of revenue. Diluted share count has drifted down from 329M (2022) to 314M (2025), a -1.5% CAGR - management is a net buyer, so per-share value is being concentrated rather than diluted. Accruals of 6.7% of assets and OCF/NI of 3.83x are consistent with clean earnings, and no mechanical red flags surfaced.
Verify before trusting this (6)
- Composition and duration of the 2025 FCF turn - is the $1.29B sustainable or a working-capital/one-off swing?
- Debt maturity ladder, covenants, and interest coverage detail behind the $3.7B net debt
- Customer/contract concentration on nuclear PPAs and any hyperscaler agreements driving forward earnings
- Capex trajectory for 2026+ - whether reinvestment reaccelerates and pushes FCF negative again
- Regulatory and license-extension status for the nuclear fleet
- Any convertible or hybrid instruments in the capital structure not visible in share count
The composite fair value lands at $118.45 and the signal-adjusted FV at $139.30, implying roughly 47% downside from $262.75. Even the most generous method in the stack, anchored-PE at $161.13, still sits ~39% below spot, and the EPV floor of $75.77 says the in-place earnings power alone justifies less than a third of today's price. Reconciling those methods with reality: the business is genuinely improving (margins from -1.8% to double digits, buybacks, 2025 FCF inflection), so I will not treat the $75 EPV as the anchor - but even a quality-adjusted deserved value sitting between the anchored-PE and a premium for scarcity of carbon-free baseload gets me to roughly $160-180, not $263.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Signed hyperscaler PPA terms - price, duration, take-or-pay structure
- Relicensing timeline and capex for the oldest units
- 2025 FCF durability - is the inflection structural or one-off working-capital
- Sensitivity of forward EBITDA to a 15-20% drop in merchant power prices
- Any nuclear PTC floor mechanics that anchor downside
None surfaced.
None surfaced.
This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.
Prediction unavailable. No usable fair-value anchor — composite, DCF and anchored-PE are all absent from valuation-synthesis. Typical for pre-profit / narrative-platform names where those methods don't apply.