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STALE Analysis Report
May 2, 2026
55 days ago · 88% complete
Re-run recommended — fundamentals and price action have likely diverged from this snapshot.

Cerus Corporation

CERS NASDAQ Categories PDF
Healthcare · Medical - Devices
Concord, CA 94520, United States IPO 1997 cerus.com Updated Jun 27, 1:38am
Price
$2.92
Market Cap
$585.1M
Employees
614
Beta
1.77
Avg Volume
2,284,768
CEO
William Greenman
Business Description

Cerus Corporation operates as a biotechnology firm dedicated to advancing and marketing the INTERCEPT Blood System. This proprietary technology significantly enhances the safety of transfusable blood components by neutralizing biological threats, thereby reducing the risk of blood-borne pathogens. The company's product line includes INTERCEPT systems specifically engineered to deactivate pathogens in donated platelets and plasma. It also offers a dedicated INTERCEPT Blood System for the inactivation of harmful agents in red blood cell components. Furthermore, Cerus markets an INTERCEPT Blood System for Cryoprecipitation, which leverages its plasma technology to produce two key pathogen-reduced blood products: a cryoprecipitated fibrinogen complex for treating and controlling bleeding, particularly massive hemorrhages stemming from fibrinogen deficiency, and pathogen-reduced, cryoprecipitate-reduced plasma. Cerus distributes these platelet and plasma systems globally through a combination of its direct sales force and an extensive network of distributors, reaching markets in North America, Europe, the Commonwealth of Independent States, the Middle East, and Latin America. Established in 1991, Cerus Corporation maintains its corporate headquarters in Concord, California.

Business History
Generated: May 2, 2026 11:16am
Price Overview
Last updated: Jun 27, 2026 7:14am (just now)
$2.92
+0.06 (+2.10%)
Day Range
$2.83 – $3.00
52-Week Range
$1.15 – $3.15
50-Day MA
$2.51
200-Day MA
$2.05
Volume
6,933,595.00
Analyst Price Targets
Low $4.00
Consensus $4.00
High $4.00
(4 analysts)
Share Structure
Outstanding 200,368,974.00
Float 193,117,846.00
Free Float 96.4%
High free float — 96.4% of shares trade freely, ~3.6% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jun 27, 2026 1:38am (5h ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jun 23, 2026 6:22am (4d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
API Direct from provider CALC Derived from statements
Industry comparison last run: May 2, 2026 11:21am
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
CALC
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
-35.61
Stock Price: $2.92
EPS (Diluted): -0.08
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
API
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
6.11
Stock Price: $2.92
Total Equity: $64.22M
Shares: 190,594,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
API
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
550.07
Market Cap: $585.08M
Total Debt: $83.89M
Cash: $19.96M
EBITDA: -$4.94M
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
API
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$469.6M
Market Cap: $585.08M
Total Debt: $83.89M
Cash: $19.96M
P/S Ratio (Price per dollar of revenue)
API
Stock Price / Revenue Per Share
1.90
Stock Price: $2.92
Revenue: $206.13M
Shares: 190,594,000
EV/Sales (Total value vs revenue — works when P/E can't)
API
2.28
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
API
Gross Profit / Revenue
53.5%
Gross Profit: $110.29M
Revenue: $206.13M
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
API
Operating Income / Revenue
-17.6%
Operating Income: -$36.35M
Revenue: $206.13M
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
API
Net Income / Revenue
-7.6%
Net Income: -$15.63M
Revenue: $206.13M
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
API
Net Income / Total Equity
-15.4%
Net Income: -$15.63M
Total Equity: $64.22M
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
API
NOPAT / Invested Capital
-10.3%
Operating Income: -$36.35M
Tax Rate: -2.3%
Equity: $64.22M
Total Debt: $83.89M
Cash: $19.96M
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
API
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
1.73
Current Assets: $174.38M
Current Liabilities: $100.80M
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
CALC
Total Debt / Total Equity
1.31
Short-Term Debt: $43.34M
Long-Term Debt: $40.55M
Total Debt: $83.89M
Total Equity: $64.22M
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
CALC
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$1.08
Revenue: $206.13M
Shares: 190,594,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
CALC
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$0.34
Total Equity: $64.22M
Shares: 190,594,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
CALC
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$0.04
Operating CF: $11.36M
CapEx: -$2.84M
Shares: 190,594,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
API
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
0.0%
Last Dividend: N/A
Stock Price: $2.92
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: -$15.63M
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: May 2, 2026 11:21am
Compares CERS against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Deep Analysis
Last run: May 2, 2026 11:24:42 am

Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.

0 Company Classification — What type of company is this?
1 Industry Landscape — Where is the industry headed?
2 Company Momentum — Where is this company trending?
3 Forward Projection — 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a DCF Valuation — Present value of future cash flows
Not applicable for Pre Profit Growth companies
4b Earnings Power Value — Floor value — worth with zero growth
Not applicable for Pre Profit Growth companies
4c Anchored PE — Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
Not applicable for Pre Profit Growth companies
4d Reverse DCF — What growth is the market pricing in?
Not applicable for Pre Profit Growth companies
4e Revenue-Based DCF — For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
4f Anchored P/S — Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
4g Scenario Analysis — Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
4h Dividend Discount Model — For dividend/income stocks only
Not applicable for Pre Profit Growth companies
4i Book Value Analysis — For deep value / turnaround stocks only
Not applicable for Pre Profit Growth companies
4j Insider Activity — Are insiders buying or selling?
4f Cash Flow Quality — How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g Debt Maturity Risk — Can it handle its debt?
4h Macro Environment — Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i Sector Intelligence — How does this company compare within its sector?
4j Revenue Confidence — How reliable is the growth projection?
4k Sensitivity Analysis — How fragile is the fair value estimate?
Not applicable for Pre Profit Growth companies
4l Sector Demand Cycle — Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5 AI Investigation — Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b Thesis Evaluation — What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
6 Valuation Synthesis — Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 23, 2026 6:22am (4d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $130.9M $162.0M $156.4M $180.3M $206.1M
Cost of Revenue $63.5M $75.0M $70.0M $80.7M $95.8M
Gross Profit $67.4M $87.1M $86.4M $99.5M $110.3M
Operating Expenses $116.3M $121.2M $116.5M $113.7M $146.6M
Operating Income -$48.9M -$34.1M -$30.1M -$14.2M -$36.3M
Net Income -$54.4M -$42.8M -$37.5M -$20.9M -$15.6M
EBITDA -$46.0M -$33.5M -$26.3M -$10.0M -$4.9M
EPS $-0.32 $-0.24 $-0.21 $-0.11 $-0.08
EPS (Diluted)
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 23, 2026 6:22am (4d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $48.8M $35.6M $11.6M $20.3M $20.0M
Total Current Assets $187.1M $170.1M $144.4M $152.0M $174.4M
Total Assets $237.5M $218.1M $197.7M $200.9M $221.9M
Current Liabilities $78.6M $117.1M $67.5M $63.6M $100.8M
Long-Term Debt $54.7M $13.6M $59.8M $64.9M $40.5M
Total Liabilities $151.9M $149.5M $144.3M $144.0M $156.9M
Total Equity $84.6M $67.6M $52.7M $56.1M $64.2M
Retained Earnings -$964.3M -$1.0B -$1.0B -$1.1B -$1.1B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 23, 2026 6:22am (4d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow -$33.9M -$25.6M -$43.2M $11.4M $11.4M
Capital Expenditure $-910,000 -$2.0M -$4.6M -$2.8M -$2.8M
Free Cash Flow -$34.8M -$27.6M -$47.8M $8.5M $8.5M
Acquisitions (net) $910,000 -$10.5M $0 $0 $0
Debt Repayment
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks $0 $-104,000 $-175,000 $0 $0
Net Change in Cash $12.1M -$13.7M -$24.0M $8.0M $8.0M
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 27, 2026 1:38am (5h ago)
Metric 2025 2026 2027 2028
Revenue $231.0M
$223.6M – $244.4M
$252.8M
$243.6M – $270.5M
$274.2M
$266.4M – $287.0M
$312.0M
$298.5M – $325.5M
EBITDA $63.4M
$61.4M – $67.1M
$69.4M
$66.9M – $74.2M
$75.2M
$73.1M – $78.8M
$85.6M
$81.9M – $89.3M
Net Income -$9.6M
-$122.0M – $91.5M
-$6.2M
-$6.8M – -$6.1M
$-645,988
$-683,176 – $-608,799
$19.0M
$18.3M – $20.5M
EPS
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 23, 2026 6:22am (4d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +23.8% -3.5% +15.3% +14.3%
Gross Profit Growth +29.3% -0.8% +15.2% +10.8%
Operating Income Growth +30.4% +11.8% +52.7% -155.5%
Net Income Growth +21.3% +12.4% +44.2% +25.3%
EBITDA Growth +27.1% +21.4% +61.9% +50.7%
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 27, 2026 1:38am (5h ago)
Type codes PPurchase SSale AAward / grant MOption exercise FIn-kind (tax) CConversion GGift DReturn to issuer
All SEC Form 4 codes
Open market
P Purchase
Open-market or private purchase of shares.
S Sale
Open-market or private sale of shares.
Compensation (Rule 16b-3)
A Award / grant
Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
D Return to issuer
Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
F In-kind (tax)
Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
I Discretionary
Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
M Option exercise
Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
Derivatives
C Conversion
Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
E Short expiration
Expiration of a short derivative position.
H Long expiration
Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
O OTM exercise
Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
X ITM exercise
Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
Other exempt
G Gift
Bona fide gift of securities.
L Small acquisition
Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
W Inheritance
Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
Z Voting trust
Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
Other
J Other
Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
K Equity swap
Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
U Tender / buyout
Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.

Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.

Date Insider Type Shares Price Value
2026-06-09 BJERKHOLT ERIC S-Sale 20,454.00 $2.60 $53,180
2026-06-02 Lucena Ann A-Award 60,000.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-02 BJERKHOLT ERIC A-Award 60,000.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-02 NACHTSHEIM JAMI K A-Award 60,000.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-29 Jayaraman Vivek K S-Sale 16,667.00 $3.00 $50,001
2026-06-02 Witney Frank A-Award 60,000.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-02 Gregory Dean A. A-Award 60,000.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-02 Shan Hua A-Award 60,000.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-01 Jayaraman Vivek K S-Sale 16,667.00 $3.00 $50,001
2026-04-01 Green Kevin Dennis A-Award 200,000.00 $0.00 $0
2026-04-01 Jensen Chrystal A-Award 200,000.00 $0.00 $0
2025-03-12 Jensen Chrystal S-Sale 113,008.00 $1.66 $187,277
2026-03-12 Jayaraman Vivek K S-Sale 165,200.00 $1.66 $273,769
2026-03-12 Greenman William Mariner S-Sale 447,757.00 $1.66 $742,023
2026-03-12 Green Kevin Dennis S-Sale 127,544.00 $1.66 $211,366
2026-03-12 Benjamin Richard J S-Sale 101,740.00 $1.66 $168,604
2026-03-05 Benjamin Richard J S-Sale 61,233.00 $2.06 $126,299
2026-03-05 Green Kevin Dennis A-Award 63,854.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-05 Green Kevin Dennis S-Sale 55,225.00 $2.06 $113,902
2026-03-06 Green Kevin Dennis S-Sale 27,796.00 $2.01 $55,745
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for CERS — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Delvantic AI Findings
Independent analyst synthesis · Delvantic - Cairn AI · generated 2026-05-02 11:25:12
Reviews the pipeline's own verdicts
Verdict Hold / too early — fair value $3.00-3.50 absent dilution, but $20M cash vs $36M operating loss makes a raise likely; revisit after Q2 2026 print and any financing announcement before adding.

Looking at the raw quarterlies first: Cerus posted $53.7M in Q1 2026 vs $43.2M Q1 2025 — that's 24.3% YoY, an acceleration from the 14% trailing CAGR the momentum module flagged. Q4 2025 hit $57.8M (+13.8% YoY), Q3 was effectively breakeven at -$19K, and the full-year 2025 came in at $206.1M vs $180.3M (+14.3%). Gross margin held at 53.5% — flat, not expanding meaningfully (2024 gross was 55.2%, actually slightly down). The synthesis claim of "margins improving 400+ basis points annually" doesn't square with the gross line; it must be referencing operating leverage, but operating loss actually *widened* from -$14.2M in 2024 to -$36.3M in 2025. That's a meaningful deterioration the synthesis glosses over. Net loss did improve ($15.6M vs $20.9M) but only because of non-operating items. So the "path to profitability" narrative is shakier than the prior models present.

The cash flow picture is the genuinely interesting fact and where I partially side with the bulls: $11.4M operating CF and $8.5M FCF in 2025, first time meaningfully positive. But cash on hand is just $20.0M with no disclosed debt figure (a red flag in itself — Cerus historically carries ~$60-70M in term debt; absence here means the data is incomplete, not that the balance sheet is clean). At a $36M operating loss run-rate with only $20M cash, the gap between GAAP operating loss and positive FCF is being bridged by working capital and stock-based comp. That's exactly what the Market Forces module flagged as "poor cash conversion" and a "binary bet" before dilution — and I think that module is closer to right than the synthesis verdict of "Reasonable Premium." A capital raise at $2.72 with 200M+ shares outstanding would be dilutive and ugly.

Insider activity tells a clearer story than "Neutral." On 2026-03-12 alone, insiders dumped roughly 943,000 shares across five separate sales, plus another ~116,000 on 03-05. That's over a million shares sold in a one-week window against just 463,854 in awards. Calling that "neutral" is generous — it's net selling at depressed prices ($2.72, near 52-week lows per the pre-flight note), which insiders typically avoid unless they have to. Either liquidity needs are pressing or they don't see a near-term catalyst. The contrarian counter is that 10b5-1 plans and tax-related sales on award vesting can mechanically produce this pattern, and the absolute dollar value (~$3M) is small for a company this size. But the pattern doesn't support the bull case.

I dissent from the "Reasonable Premium" synthesis verdict and lean toward Market Forces' framing. The 1.9x P/S looks cheap for medtech only if you believe the 24% Q1 acceleration is sustainable AND that operating losses compress without a raise. Both are unproven. INTERCEPT platelets is a 20-year-old product; the RBC program is the optionality, but it's been "coming soon" for a decade. At $2.72 and $0.55B market cap, the stock is pricing in execution risk fairly — it's neither obviously cheap nor obviously expensive. Fair value in a no-raise, sustained-20%-growth scenario is probably $3.50-4.00; in a dilutive-raise scenario, $2.00-2.25. The asymmetry isn't compelling at current price given $20M cash against $36M operating losses. I'd want to see Q2 2026 confirm the acceleration AND a financing event (or clear evidence one isn't needed) before committing capital. The prior models are too sanguine about the balance sheet fragility.

GPT Critique
Second-opinion review · gpt-4o · generated 2026-05-02 11:25:20
Reviews the Opus findings above
Verdict I slightly diverge from Opus — while I agree with the hold recommendation due to cash constraints and operating losses, I value the potential upside of the RBC program higher, seeing fair value closer to $3.25-3.75, contingent on successful financing and continued revenue growth acceleration.

Upon reviewing Cerus Corporation's financials independently, several key elements emerge. The most striking is the company's revenue growth, which has shown a consistent upward trajectory, with the latest quarter posting a 24.3% year-over-year increase to $53.7 million. This growth outpaces the recent revenue CAGR of 14.8%, indicating potential acceleration. However, despite the positive revenue trend, the company's profitability remains elusive, with quarterly margins consistently negative and operating losses widening significantly from $14.2 million in 2024 to $36.3 million in 2025. This contrast between revenue growth and deteriorating operating margins is concerning, suggesting that Cerus's cost structure is not improving in tandem with its top-line expansion. Furthermore, the cash position of $20 million against a significant operating loss run-rate raises red flags about the company's financial sustainability without additional capital infusion.

I find myself in agreement with several of Opus's points. For instance, the analysis correctly highlights that the gross margin has been relatively flat and even slightly down from 55.2% to 53.5%, contradicting any claims of significant margin expansion. This supports Opus's skepticism towards the "path to profitability" narrative. Additionally, I concur with Opus's view on the precarious cash situation. The positive operating cash flow of $11.4 million and free cash flow of $8.5 million are promising, yet they are overshadowed by the company's limited cash reserves and the absence of any disclosed debt on the balance sheet, suggesting an incomplete financial picture.

However, I diverge from Opus's interpretation of insider activity. While Opus sees insider sales as signaling a lack of confidence, I would argue that the volume of sales, given the context of stock awards, does not inherently indicate bearish sentiment. The sales could be part of routine portfolio management or tax obligations rather than a direct reflection of insider outlooks. Moreover, Opus's assertion that the market is not pricing in the RBC program's potential seems overly cautious. While the RBC product has been delayed, its eventual success could provide a substantial upside, which current valuations may not fully account for.

A skeptic might argue that both analyses underestimate the potential for Cerus's revenue growth to eventually lead to profitability, especially given the company's historical challenges. They might also question the emphasis on insider sales, pointing out that such transactions are not always predictive of future performance and can be influenced by personal financial decisions unrelated to company prospects.

Community AI Feedback
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My Notes personal — only you see this
Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · fmp
v1.1.352 · d1100787 · 2026-06-26 11:39:30