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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Cummins Inc. (CMI) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Watch · Gem Score -10 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 48 · Value -57 · Sentiment 5 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $287.89 vs $634.82 at analysis
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Cummins Inc.
CMI NYSECummins Inc. is a global power solutions company that designs, manufactures, and distributes a broad portfolio of powertrains and related technologies for commercial and industrial applications. The company focuses on diesel, natural gas, electric, and hybrid powertrains, as well as power generation systems and electrified power solutions. Its offerings include engines, automated transmissions, axles, drivelines, brakes, suspension systems, turbochargers, fuel systems, filtration, aftertreatment, control systems, batteries, and hydrogen and fuel cell technologies. Cummins Inc. operates through five main segments: Engine, Components, Distribution, Power Systems, and Accelera, serving truck manufacturers, off-highway and construction equipment producers, power generation markets, and other industrial customers worldwide. Headquartered in Columbus, Indiana, the company leverages a global manufacturing base and extensive service and support network to supply, integrate, and maintain its products across diverse end markets. Cummins Inc. plays a significant role in enabling reliable power, transportation, and industrial operations, while supporting customers’ needs across multiple fuel types and emerging low- and zero-emission technologies.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 20.50
Total Equity: $13.41B
Shares: 138,700,000
Total Debt: $94.00M
Cash: $2.85B
EBITDA: $5.13B
Total Debt: $94.00M
Cash: $2.85B
Revenue: $33.67B
Revenue: $33.67B
Revenue: $33.67B
Total Equity: $13.41B
Tax Rate: 25.4%
Equity: $13.41B
Total Debt: $94.00M
Cash: $2.85B
Current Liabilities: $9.61B
Long-Term Debt: $0.00
Total Debt: $94.00M
Total Equity: $13.41B
Shares: 138,700,000
Shares: 138,700,000
CapEx: -$1.24B
Shares: 138,700,000
Stock Price: $634.82
Net Income: $2.96B
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 6, 2026 3:16am (17d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $24.0B | $28.1B | $34.1B | $34.1B | $33.7B |
| Cost of Revenue | $18.3B | $21.4B | $25.8B | $25.7B | $25.2B |
| Gross Profit | $5.7B | $6.7B | $8.2B | $8.4B | $8.5B |
| Operating Expenses | $3.0B | $3.8B | $6.5B | $4.7B | $4.5B |
| Operating Income | $2.7B | $2.9B | $1.8B | $3.8B | $4.0B |
| Net Income | $2.2B | $2.2B | $840.0M | $4.1B | $3.0B |
| EBITDA | $3.4B | $3.7B | $2.8B | $4.8B | $5.1B |
| EPS | $14.74 | $15.20 | $5.19 | $28.55 | $20.62 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $14.61 | $15.12 | $5.15 | $28.37 | $20.50 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 6, 2026 7:42am (17d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $2.6B | $2.1B | $2.2B | $1.7B | $2.8B |
| Total Current Assets | $12.3B | $14.5B | $15.2B | $14.8B | $16.9B |
| Total Assets | $23.7B | $30.3B | $32.0B | $31.5B | $34.0B |
| Current Liabilities | $7.1B | $11.4B | $12.9B | $11.2B | $9.6B |
| Long-Term Debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total Liabilities | $14.3B | $20.1B | $22.1B | $20.2B | $20.6B |
| Total Equity | $9.4B | $10.2B | $9.9B | $11.3B | $13.4B |
| Retained Earnings | $16.7B | $18.0B | $17.9B | $20.8B | $22.6B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 6, 2026 3:16am (17d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $2.3B | $2.0B | $4.0B | $1.5B | $3.6B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$734.0M | -$916.0M | -$1.2B | -$1.2B | -$1.2B |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.5B | $1.0B | $2.8B | $279.0M | $2.4B |
| Acquisitions (net) | $0 | -$3.2B | -$292.0M | -$58.0M | -$12.0M |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | $6.0M | $553.0M | -$275.0M | $1.2B | $1.4B |
| Dividends Paid | -$809.0M | -$855.0M | -$921.0M | -$969.0M | -$1.1B |
| Stock Buybacks | -$1.4B | -$374.0M | $0 | $0 | — |
| Net Change in Cash | -$809.0M | -$491.0M | $78.0M | -$508.0M | $1.2B |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 6, 2026 3:16am (17d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +16.9% | +21.3% | +0.1% | -1.3% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +18.0% | +22.8% | +2.3% | +0.9% |
| Operating Income Growth | +8.2% | -39.9% | +112.9% | +7.3% |
| Net Income Growth | +0.9% | -61.5% | +384.3% | -27.3% |
| EBITDA Growth | +10.2% | -25.0% | +72.9% | +6.5% |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 6, 2026 7:42am (17d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | $2.00 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-20 | $2.00 | — | — | — |
| 2025-11-21 | $2.00 | — | — | — |
| 2025-08-22 | $2.00 | — | — | — |
| 2025-05-23 | $1.82 | — | — | — |
| 2025-02-21 | $1.82 | — | — | — |
| 2024-11-22 | $1.82 | — | — | — |
| 2024-08-23 | $1.82 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-23 | $1.68 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-22 | $1.68 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-22 | $1.68 | — | — | — |
| 2023-08-24 | $1.68 | — | — | — |
| 2023-05-18 | $1.57 | — | — | — |
| 2023-02-23 | $1.57 | — | — | — |
| 2022-11-17 | $1.57 | — | — | — |
| 2022-08-18 | $1.57 | — | — | — |
| 2022-05-19 | $1.45 | — | — | — |
| 2022-02-17 | $1.45 | — | — | — |
| 2021-11-18 | $1.45 | — | — | — |
| 2021-08-19 | $1.45 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Risk : Reward — if the last quarter repeats
Live · as of 2026-08-19 08:43Even the bull case prices 60% below today — the ratio here measures the model-vs-market gap, not payoff odds. Another quarter like the worst recent one costs 78%.
| Case | Growth | Margin | Fair value | vs price ($634.82) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull — recovery | +5% | 12.4% | $257.01 | -60% |
| Base — stabilizes | +3% | 10.8% | $215.76 | -66% |
| Bear — keeps slipping | +2% | 9.1% | $177.99 | -72% |
| Stress — last quarter repeats | +3% | 6.6% | $141.00 | -78% |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
AI Lens 4th lens · how AI reaches this business · 5-yr
2026-08-11Data center construction needs standby and increasingly prime onsite generation faster than utilities can deliver interconnects, and Power Systems reciprocating gensets and gas engines are one of the few deliverable answers - this is AI capex converting into Cummins backlog at above-corporate margins.
Emissions calibration, durability simulation and certification are enormous fixed engineering costs that Cummins amortizes across volume no single OEM can match; if AI-assisted simulation collapses that cost, Paccar-, Daimler- and Traton-style in-house powertrains get cheaper to sustain and Cummins' installed-base share keeps leaking - consistent with the -8.6% share gap already visible.
Whether data center power demand is a multi-year structural mix shift or a two-year order spike. Watch Power Systems revenue and segment EBITDA share of total, plus disclosure of data-center-specific backlog and whether gas/prime power (not just standby) orders grow.
Global certified distribution and service network with parts availability at truck-stop density, emissions aftertreatment and certification portfolios per jurisdiction, and the installed base of millions of engines that pulls decades of aftermarket parts revenue.
AI Lens thesis
AI touches Cummins in three separable channels and only one is large: first, as a customer - AI datacenters buy gensets, gas engines and eventually fuel cells, pushing revenue mix toward Power Systems where margins and pricing power exceed the truck engine business; second, as an internal cost lever - generative design, virtual calibration and telematics-driven warranty prediction attack engineering spend and the warranty line, which is exactly where an incumbent with GM% climbing 23.7 to 25.3 can convert savings into margin; third, as a competitive equalizer - the same simulation tooling lowers the barrier for OEM insourcing and Chinese engine makers, which is the one channel that structurally harms Cummins. Nothing in AI substitutes the physical artifact, the aftertreatment certification, or the parts-and-service network, so exposure is real but bounded and the direction is net positive.
What the market may be underestimating
Upside Autonomous and higher-utilization freight raises miles per truck, and aftermarket parts consumption scales with duty cycle, not with truck count - Cummins' annuity could grow even if unit sales are flat or the industry ships fewer trucks.
Downside Datacenter power is the segment now carrying the margin story, and it is a capex-cycle customer: a pause in AI buildout, a shift to grid-scale gas turbines, or fuel-cell alternatives for prime power removes the one AI-driven growth vector while legacy diesel remains structurally flat.
Outcome range spread 39
Claude Reading
Looking at the raw quarterly cadence first: Q2 2026 revenue of $9.46B with $968M NI (10.2% margin) is a genuine acceleration versus Q2 2025's $8.64B — that's +9.5% YoY, not the -1.3% "recent yoy" the momentum module reports (which appears to be comparing stale annual data). Q1 2026 at $8.40B vs Q1 2025 $8.17B is +2.8%. So the trajectory is inflecting, not decaying. First half 2026 run-rate is ~$17.9B, implying ~$36B+ for the year vs $33.67B in 2025 — call it +7% top-line reacceleration with margins holding double-digits. That materially undermines the synthesis's "mature/declining" DCF anchoring at $286.
The balance sheet number is suspicious: $94M total debt against $13.4B equity for a capital-intensive engine manufacturer with $2.39B FCF is almost certainly a data feed artifact (likely current-portion-only or a mislabel — CMI historically carries ~$4-6B of long-term debt from the Meritor acquisition). Debt/equity of 0.007 is not real; ROIC of 28% is likely overstated as a result. Adjusting for a realistic ~$5B net debt, EV/EBITDA in the high-teens is still full but not egregious for a sector leader printing 10%+ margins with data-center backup power (a real, non-narrative tailwind — HPE, Vertiv, generator peers all confirming genset demand) driving the Power Systems segment.
Where I dissent from the synthesis: the $286 fair value is anchored on 2023's collapsed $840M NI year (Accelera + emissions charges) and treats normalized earnings as ~$2.5-3B. But 2024 printed $4.07B NI and 2026 is annualizing toward $3.3B+ with the Q2 acceleration. On $3B normalized NI, 30x is rich but not $286-rich; a defensible 18-22x on cyclically-normalized $13-14/share EPS (~$1.9-2.1B trough) to $28-30 (peak) puts fair value in the $400-500 range, not $286. The synthesis and market-forces layers are essentially double-counting the electrification bear case — market-forces says CMI is "losing the platform race" while the narrative layer admits Accelera is immaterial to GAAP, which means the diesel/genset franchise IS the earnings story and it's performing. Where I agree with synthesis: at $635 and 31x trailing, you're paying peak-cycle multiple on peak-cycle earnings for a cyclical, and the risk/reward from here is asymmetric to the downside on any freight/truck cycle rollover (Class 8 orders are the tell).
Contrarian read a bull would push: data center backup power is a structural, not cyclical, demand pool — CMI's Power Systems segment grew ~20% in recent quarters and carries higher margins than engine. If that segment scales from ~15% to 25% of revenue over three years, mix shift alone justifies a re-rated multiple. Insider activity is genuinely neutral — the sales are trivial (90-480 share lots) against awards; this is not the "management sees structural decline" signal market-forces claims. The narrative layer's "turnaround-bet, fragile" framing is wrong archetype — this isn't a turnaround, it's a cyclical printing near-peak with an optional call on Accelera. Fragility comes from the cycle, not the story.
GPT Reading
At $634.82, Cummins is being valued like a secular compounder, but the financials still look like a very good cyclical industrial. Revenue has gone essentially nowhere over the last three full years: $34.07B in 2023, $34.10B in 2024, then down to $33.67B in 2025. Even if I give credit for the latest two quarters, the run-rate is only modestly better, with 1H26 revenue of $17.86B versus $16.81B in 1H25, up about 6%. That is solid, but not the stuff that normally supports 31x earnings, 2.6x sales, and 16.5x EV/EBITDA for a heavy-equipment name. The key issue is that the stock multiple has expanded while the top line has not. When a mature manufacturer gets this expensive, I need to see either a clear structural margin step-up or a new growth engine that is already material in the numbers. I do not see either proven yet.
The earnings story is also less clean than the headline quality metrics suggest. Net income swung from just $840M in 2023 to $4.07B in 2024, then back down to $2.96B in 2025. Operating income is a better guide to the business than net income here, and that picture is respectable but not transformative: $2.93B in 2022, $1.76B in 2023, $3.75B in 2024, $4.03B in 2025. That says Cummins has recovered strongly and is operating well, not that it has become a different kind of company. The recent quarterly margins reinforce that. Q1 and Q2 2026 net margins were 8.1% and 10.2%, versus 10.4% and 10.7% in the comparable 2025 quarters; so revenue improved, but profitability did not expand. Free cash flow of $2.39B on $33.67B of sales is healthy, yet against an $87.4B market cap that is only about a 2.7% FCF yield. For a capital-intensive industrial with cyclical exposure, pristine balance sheet or not, that is thin.
The balance sheet is undeniably excellent and is the best argument for why the stock deserves a premium to old-cycle Cummins. With only $94M of debt against $2.85B of cash and $13.41B of equity, there is virtually no balance-sheet risk. ROIC at 28.2% and ROE at 22.1% are high-quality numbers, and the current ratio of 1.76 shows no stress. This is not a broken industrial story; it is an elite operator. But elite operators can still be overpriced. The market appears to be capitalizing Cummins as if superior capital allocation, resilience, and transition optionality justify a permanent re-rating from the historical industrial band toward something closer to infrastructure-tech. That is a big leap when the actual evidence still shows flattish multi-year revenue, volatile earnings, and only moderate cash conversion after capex.
The best case against my skepticism is straightforward: the business may be in the middle of a durable earnings reset higher, and the annual data could be understating it because 2024-2026 reflect a cleaner, more profitable operating model. Q2 2026 revenue of $9.46B was up 9.5% from $8.64B a year earlier, and net income of $968M was still above the already-strong $928M posted in Q2 2025. Operating income rose from $3.75B in 2024 to $4.03B in 2025 despite slightly lower revenue, suggesting better mix and execution. If Cummins can hold operating margins around 12% through a normal cycle, its old valuation anchors are too low. And the fortress balance sheet matters: many industrials at premium valuations carry leverage; Cummins does not. If investors are paying up for a scarce combination of cyclical exposure, capital discipline, and strategic optionality, the premium is not irrational. I still weigh that less heavily because the current price already discounts a lot of that success, while the earnings base remains too volatile to underwrite a 30x multiple with confidence.
What would change my mind is simple. I would get less bearish if Cummins can show that the latest growth is not just a favorable part of the cycle but a new baseline: specifically, full-year revenue back above $36B, operating income sustainably above $4.5B, and free cash flow above $3.0B without balance-sheet stretch. If quarterly net margins start holding above 10% consistently while revenue grows high single digits, the case for a structurally higher multiple strengthens. On the other side, if 2H26 margins soften, full-year earnings fail to clearly exceed 2025, or cash flow remains stuck around the current 2%-3% yield, the market will have to confront that it paid a growth-stock multiple for a best-in-class but still mature engine maker.
Grok Reading
The numbers describe a high-quality franchise that has already been paid for twice. Cummins generated $33.67B of revenue in 2025, essentially flat to down versus $34.10B in 2024 and $34.07B in 2023, yet the equity is capitalized at $87B—2.6x sales and 31x trailing earnings. Net income fell from $4.07B to $2.96B year-over-year, compressing the net margin from roughly 12% back toward a more normal 8.8%. Free cash flow of $2.39B against a $87B enterprise implies a 2.7% FCF yield; add the 1.3% dividend and the cash return is thin for a cyclical industrial whose revenue CAGR is negative 0.6% and whose FCF CAGR is negative 6.9%. The recent two quarters ($8.40B then $9.46B) show sequential momentum and mid-to-high single-digit operating margins, but they do not rewrite the multi-year stagnation in the top line.
What the market is clearly buying is the electrification/Accelera/hydrogen optionality layered on top of an almost debt-free balance sheet ($94M debt, $2.85B cash, 0.007 debt-to-equity) and elite capital returns (28% ROIC, 22% ROE). That fortress quality is real and explains why the stock can sustain a premium to ordinary machinery names. It does not justify a 31x multiple or a 16.5x EV/EBITDA when the core diesel franchise is mature, volumes are not compounding, and the new-power contribution remains immaterial to GAAP results. The 2024 earnings spike looks like a peak-cycle print that 2025 already partially gave back; paying 31x on the residual run-rate is an expensive wager that the transition story will both arrive on time and earn returns comparable to the legacy engine business.
The strongest contrary case is straightforward: Q2 2026 revenue of $9.46B and $968M of net income re-accelerated hard, the balance sheet can fund any pivot without dilution, and sector leadership plus good FCF quality mean Cummins can keep harvesting cash while competitors struggle. A smart bull argues that data-center backup power and Accelera create a second profit pool the DCF at ~$286 simply ignores, and that 31x is tolerable if earnings re-rate toward a structurally higher margin base. I weigh that less heavily because the multi-year revenue line is still flat-to-down, earnings CAGR is inflated by the 2023 trough, and the narrative layer itself flags durability as fragile—one hydrogen miss or margin compression episode collapses the premium. Insider activity is noise (small gifts, awards, and sales), not a confirming signal either way.
I would flip if two consecutive quarters deliver mid-teens revenue growth with operating margins holding above 12%, or if Accelera/new power discloses a multi-billion run-rate with positive contribution margins that the Street can underwrite. Until then the stock is priced for a successful multi-year technology migration that the cash-flow statement has not yet begun to evidence.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Cummins prints the profile of a mature industrial franchise: revenue scaled from $24.0B (2021) to $33.7B (2025), gross margin expanded steadily from 23.7% to 25.3%, and 2025 operating margin recovered to 12.0%. Earnings quality is clean - accruals -0.6% of assets, OCF/NI 1.65x, and Altman Z of 5.12 sits firmly in the safe zone. Balance sheet is healthy with $3.61B cash, $3.52B net cash, and self-funding $2.39B FCF in 2025. Diluted share count shrank from 145.9M to 138.7M (-1.3% CAGR) with SBC only 0.2% of revenue and buyback/SBC ratio of 4800x - genuine per-share value concentration, not optical.
The blemishes are cyclical/one-time in character rather than structural. 2023 operating margin collapsed to 5.2% (net income $840M) - likely the Accelera/emissions-related charge era - before snapping back to 11-12%. 2024 FCF cratered to $279M against $4.07B net income (working capital or one-timers) before normalizing to $2.39B in 2025; that swing tells you FCF is lumpy even if the multi-year average is solid. Insider tape is neutral-to-mildly-negative: 38 sells, zero opens, but volumes are trivial (Jackson's ~$519K total) and dominated by routine award/gift/tax activity - no red flag.
Net read: a well-run, disciplined capital allocator with real earnings, real cash, and shrinking share count, but with the cyclicality and margin variability that keep it from a fortress rating.
Verify before trusting this (6)
- What drove 2023 operating margin collapse to 5.2% - was it the emissions settlement, Accelera losses, or Meritor integration charges?
- Working capital and one-time items behind 2024 FCF of $279M vs $4.07B net income
- Accelera (new power/electrification) segment profitability and cash burn trajectory
- Customer concentration in engine and components segments (OEM truck cyclicality exposure)
- Any remaining EPA/emissions-related legal or regulatory liabilities post-2023 settlement
- Pension and OPEB obligations relative to net cash position
Price is $634.82 vs a composite fair value of $276.39 and signal-adjusted $286.55 - implying roughly -55% downside per the e2e synthesis. I do not take that gap at face value: the DCF ($136) and EPV floor ($167) look punitive for a durable, cash-generative franchise with a Solid quality grade and net cash, and the anchored-PE at $666 is closer to where the market actually clears cyclical industrials. Splitting the difference and giving Cummins credit for high earnings quality and clean books, a defensible deserved value sits somewhere in the $450-550 zone - meaningfully below spot but not the two-thirds haircut the composite implies.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- North America heavy-duty truck orderbook and 2025 guidance
- Accelera segment losses and cash burn trajectory
- Normalized FCF conversion after the 2024 miss
- Any further one-time / legal charges in the run-rate
- Capital return pace vs electrification capex
The active narrative on CMI is a turnaround/electrification bet — strong intensity but explicitly fragile — and it is doing the heavy lifting here. The market is pricing a $635 stock against a DCF anchor near $286, meaning almost the entire tape on this name is sentiment, not cash flow. That story is currently winning: momentum is positive, the risk-on regime (score +47, VIX 15.5, S&P near highs) rewards exactly this kind of high-beta (1.25) industrial-with-a-growth-story profile, and Accelera/hydrogen headlines keep the bull frame alive. That is a real tailwind on the tape right now. The counter-pressure is macro: 10y at 4.65% and a market PE of 26 are hostile to long-duration 'story premium' embedded in a mature industrial, and CMI's 1.25 beta means any risk-off flip lands harder here than on a defensive peer. Analyst tone and news flow appear supportive rather than euphoric, so this is a tailwind, not a mania. Net: the wind is at CMI's back, but it is blowing on a fragile narrative structure — the same wind can reverse quickly if the electrification story cracks or rates jolt higher.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Any Accelera/hydrogen milestone news — hits or misses will move the narrative more than earnings
- Analyst target revisions: are they chasing the price up or quietly trimming while the tape holds
- 10y yield behavior — a break above 4.75-5.00% would compress story-premium names first
- VIX regime change or S&P rolling off highs — CMI's 1.25 beta makes it an early casualty
- Sector rotation out of electrification/clean-energy adjacent names
AI touches Cummins in three separable channels and only one is large: first, as a customer - AI datacenters buy gensets, gas engines and eventually fuel cells, pushing revenue mix toward Power Systems where margins and pricing power exceed the truck engine business; second, as an internal cost lever - generative design, virtual calibration and telematics-driven warranty prediction attack engineering spend and the warranty line, which is exactly where an incumbent with GM% climbing 23.7 to 25.3 can convert savings into margin; third, as a competitive equalizer - the same simulation tooling lowers the barrier for OEM insourcing and Chinese engine makers, which is the one channel that structurally harms Cummins. Nothing in AI substitutes the physical artifact, the aftertreatment certification, or the parts-and-service network, so exposure is real but bounded and the direction is net positive.
None surfaced.
Verify before trusting this (8)
- Power Systems capacity expansion capex
- Genset lead times and pricing
- Distribution/service technician headcount
- Power Systems revenue mix shift
- Content per truck and aftertreatment attach
- Engine segment unit shipments
- Gas vs diesel genset order mix
- EPA 2027 rule implementation status
This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.
When we made this prediction on Aug 11, 2026, CMI was $634.82. We expect it to be $555.00 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $475.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 11, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.