Skip to main content
Homepage
Full 18-step deep-dive · ~20–30 min · a member feature.
AGING Analysis Report
Jul 30, 2026
9 days ago · 100% complete
For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page

What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc. (COLL) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.

Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-09): Designation Watch · Cairn score +48 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 55 · Value 43 · Sentiment 0 (timing only, not weighted) · Flagged: Valuation methods disagree 5.8x — too uncertain to confirm as a Gem. · Composite fair value $210.87 vs $35.98 at analysis

Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable reference-name attribute you can cite):

  • profile-header / price-overview — company profile, live quote, market cap
  • extended-analysisthe core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memo
  • future-predictions — our forward price-band predictions
  • market-narrative / ai-findings / gpt-critique — narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)
  • Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers): price-history, income-trend, key-metrics, financials (statement tables), insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.

More for machine readers: site briefing at /llms.txt · any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER · raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds); every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.

Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc.

COLL NASDAQ GICS Category PDF
Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
Stoughton, MA 02072, United States collegiumpharma.com Updated Jul 30, 7:40pm
Price
$35.98
Market Cap
$1.2B
Employees
357
Beta
0.73
Avg Volume
427,042
CEO
Mr. Vikram Karnani

Collegium Pharmaceutical is a specialty biopharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercializing medicines for pain management and neuropsychiatric conditions. The company's primary portfolio includes Jornay PM, a central nervous system stimulant for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder; Belbuca, a buccal film containing buprenorphine for chronic pain; and Xtampza ER, an abuse-deterrent extended-release oral formulation of oxycodone. Collegium also offers Nucynta products in extended-release and immediate-release formulations, along with Symproic for opioid-induced constipation. The company employs proprietary DETERx platform technology designed to maintain safety profiles while deterring abuse through various manipulation methods. Headquartered in Stoughton, Massachusetts, and founded in 2002, Collegium serves healthcare providers and patients across the United States, positioning itself as a leader in responsible pain management and ADHD treatment.

Runs with full report Generated: Jul 30, 2026 8:56pm
Earnings Schedule
Checked daily · calendar updated Aug 9
No upcoming print on the calendar yet — companies typically confirm a few weeks ahead. Last print was Aug 6, 2026.
EPS surprise history — vs analyst consensus · 4 prints of vendor history
+15.8%
May '26
+48.5%
Jun '26
-2.6%
Jul '26
+8.5%
Aug '26
Print date EPS est. EPS actual Revenue est. Revenue actual
Aug 6, 2026 $1.77 $1.92 +8.5%
Jul 18, 2026 $0.39 $0.38 -2.6%
Jun 8, 2026 $0.33 $0.49 +48.5%
May 7, 2026 $1.52 $1.76 +15.8%

Green = beat the estimate, red = missed. An earnings print is the fastest way a thesis changes — our designations should be re-read after each one.

Recent SEC Filings
Filed Form Document
Aug 6, 2026 10-Q View
Aug 6, 2026 8-K View
Aug 5, 2026 SCHEDULE 13G View
Jul 31, 2026 SCHEDULE 13G View
Jul 17, 2026 144 View
Jul 15, 2026 144 View
Jun 30, 2026 8-K/A View
Jun 10, 2026 4 View
Jun 1, 2026 S-8 View
Jun 1, 2026 S-8 View
May 20, 2026 4 View
May 18, 2026 4 View

Filings link to the SEC’s EDGAR system. Annual/quarterly reports (10-K, 10-Q, 20-F) carry the full story; 8-K/6-K current reports are the fastest signal that something material happened.

Price Overview
Price at report time
$35.98
as of Jul 30, 8:54pm (9d ago)
Change · Jul 30
-0.31 (-0.85%)
Day Range
$35.18 – $36.15
52-Week Range
$29.19 – $50.79
50-Day MA
$34.76
200-Day MA
$39.31
Volume
243,038.00
Right now · live
loading…
 
Real-time — the change above is the move since the report (over 9d).
Share Structure
Outstanding 32,406,969.00
Float 32,048,790.00
Free Float 98.9%
High free float — 98.9% of shares trade freely, ~1.1% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 9:03pm (9d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 9:03pm (9d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
TD Twelve Data statement HEX SEC filing
Industry comparison last run: Jul 30, 2026 7:46pm
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
HEX
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
20.80
Stock Price: $35.98
EPS (Diluted): 1.73
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
HEX
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
4.74
Stock Price: $35.98
Total Equity: $301.68M
Shares: 39,701,693
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
HEX
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
Market Cap: $1.17B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $231.25M
EBITDA: N/A
EBITDA not available
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
HEX
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$935.7M
Market Cap: $1.17B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $231.25M
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
HEX
Gross Profit / Revenue
59.3%
Gross Profit: $463.26M
Revenue: $780.57M
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
HEX
Operating Income / Revenue
23.0%
Operating Income: $179.64M
Revenue: $780.57M
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
HEX
Net Income / Revenue
8.1%
Net Income: $62.87M
Revenue: $780.57M
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
HEX
Net Income / Total Equity
20.8%
Net Income: $62.87M
Total Equity: $301.68M
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
HEX
NOPAT / Invested Capital
173.1%
Operating Income: $179.64M
Tax Rate: 32.1%
Equity: $301.68M
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $231.25M
Zero debt — invested capital = equity minus cash (very efficient)
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
HEX
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
1.57
Current Assets: $691.41M
Current Liabilities: $440.03M
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
HEX
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.00
Short-Term Debt: $0.00
Long-Term Debt: $0.00
Total Debt: $0.00
Total Equity: $301.68M
Zero debt — this company carries no debt obligations. Strongest possible score.
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
HEX
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$19.66
Revenue: $780.57M
Shares: 39,701,693
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
HEX
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$7.60
Total Equity: $301.68M
Shares: 39,701,693
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
HEX
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$8.25
Operating CF: $329.32M
CapEx: -$1.74M
Shares: 39,701,693
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
TD
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
Last Dividend: $0.00
Stock Price: $35.98
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
HEX
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $62.87M
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Jul 30, 2026 7:46pm
Compares COLL against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 9:03pm (9d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $276.9M $463.9M $566.8M $631.4M $780.6M
Cost of Revenue $126.3M $254.4M $240.6M $254.1M $317.3M
Gross Profit $150.6M $209.5M $326.2M $377.3M $463.3M
Operating Expenses $133.0M $176.2M $159.2M $207.4M $283.6M
Operating Income $17.6M $33.3M $167.0M $169.9M $179.6M
Net Income $71.5M -$25.0M $48.2M $69.2M $62.9M
EBITDA
EPS $2.05 $-0.74 $1.43 $2.14 $1.98
EPS (Diluted) $1.86 $-0.74 $1.29 $1.86 $1.73
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 7:40pm (9d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $186.4M $173.7M $238.9M $70.6M $231.3M
Total Current Assets $315.5M $420.0M $537.6M $482.3M $691.4M
Total Assets $692.1M $1.2B $1.1B $1.7B $1.7B
Current Liabilities $279.6M $433.7M $457.9M $509.5M $440.0M
Long-Term Debt
Total Liabilities $489.1M $979.3M $947.9M $1.4B $1.4B
Total Equity $202.9M $194.8M $195.4M $228.8M $301.7M
Retained Earnings -$256.3M -$281.3M -$233.2M -$164.0M -$101.1M
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 9:03pm (9d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $103.6M $124.2M $274.7M $205.0M $329.3M
Capital Expenditure -$1.9M -$1.6M $-461,000 -$1.7M -$1.7M
Free Cash Flow $101.6M $122.6M $274.3M $203.3M $327.6M
Acquisitions (net) -$572.1M $0 -$267.5M $0
Net Debt Issued / (Repaid)
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks -$47.9M -$14.1M -$75.0M -$60.0M -$25.1M
Net Change in Cash
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 9:03pm (9d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +67.6% +22.2% +11.4% +23.6%
Gross Profit Growth +39.1% +55.7% +15.7% +22.8%
Operating Income Growth +89.0% +401.1% +1.8% +5.7%
Net Income Growth -135.0% +292.6% +43.7% -9.1%
EBITDA Growth
Deep Analysis
Last run: Jul 31, 2026 1:12:46 pm

Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.

0 Company Classification — What type of company is this?
1 Industry Landscape — Where is the industry headed?
2 Company Momentum — Where is this company trending?
3 Forward Projection — 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a DCF Valuation — Present value of future cash flows
4b Earnings Power Value — Floor value — worth with zero growth
4c Anchored PE — Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
4d Reverse DCF — What growth is the market pricing in?
4e Revenue-Based DCF — For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4f Anchored P/S — Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4g Scenario Analysis — Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4h Dividend Discount Model — For dividend/income stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4i Book Value Analysis — For deep value / turnaround stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4j Insider Activity — Are insiders buying or selling?
4f Cash Flow Quality — How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g Debt Maturity Risk — Can it handle its debt?
4h Macro Environment — Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i Sector Intelligence — How does this company compare within its sector?
4j Revenue Confidence — How reliable is the growth projection?
4k Sensitivity Analysis — How fragile is the fair value estimate?
4l Sector Demand Cycle — Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5 AI Investigation — Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b Thesis Evaluation — What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
6 Valuation Synthesis — Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for COLL — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
Independent analyst synthesis · claude-opus-4-7 · generated 2026-07-30 21:03:17
Verdict Undervalued as a cash-generative fallen angel — fair value $48-58 (not $272); starter position warranted with Q2 2026 sequential revenue as the key checkpoint.

Looking at the raw numbers first: Collegium is a $780M revenue specialty pharma with 59% gross margins, 23% operating margins, $328M FCF, zero debt, $231M cash, trading at 1.5x sales and 3.7x FCF at a $1.17B market cap. That FCF yield of ~28% is the number that stops you cold. Revenue grew 24% YoY in 2025 (helped by the Ironshore/Jornay PM acquisition closing in mid-2024), but the sequential quarterly trajectory is now troubling: $209.4M → $205.4M → $193.5M. That's a 7.6% sequential decline over two quarters, and Q1 2026 net income of $14.5M is well off the Q3 2025 peak of $31.5M. The synthesis model's $272 fair value is absurd on its face — it appears to be projecting recent CAGR forward on a business that's clearly rolling over sequentially.

The prior models are internally contradictory in a revealing way. The synthesis screams "undervalued +657%" while market-forces calls it "neutral / fully reflecting best-case," and the narrative layer correctly identifies this as a fallen-angel opioid-stigma discount. The synthesis is doing what DCF-driven models always do to melting-ice-cube pharma: it capitalizes current FCF without honoring the terminal value collapse implicit in a portfolio anchored by Xtampza ER (oxycodone) and Belbuca (buprenorphine) — both facing patent cliffs and structural prescribing headwinds. Jornay PM (ADHD) is the growth engine, but ADHD stimulants face DEA quota constraints and increasing generic pressure. The synthesis fair value should be dismissed; the market-forces read is closer to correct. That said, "priced for perfection" from the thesis eval is also wrong — 3.7x FCF is not perfection pricing, it's melting-ice-cube pricing.

A careful contrarian would note two things. First, the bear case is that this is a $1.17B enterprise generating $328M in annual FCF with no debt and $231M cash — even under aggressive decay assumptions (say, FCF halves over 4 years then goes to zero), you're still looking at ~$800M-$1B of cumulative undiscounted FCF, which brackets the current EV. The margin of safety is real, not illusory. Second, the insider activity is not the smoking gun the "unusual selling" tag implies: 8,700-share option exercises with small associated sales (20 shares, 4,127 shares) against 17,000+ share awards are routine comp mechanics, not a signal. The narrative model's "minimal intensity, anchored" read is the most honest of the batch — the opioid stigma is priced in, and any M&A bid (specialty pharma consolidation is active) or prescribing normalization would trigger a re-rate to maybe $50-55. The Q1 2026 revenue decline is the real risk: if $193.5M is the new run-rate, annual revenue drops to ~$770M and the FCF conversion may compress.

I dissent from the synthesis verdict of $272 fair value — that number is not defensible for an opioid-exposed portfolio with visible sequential deceleration. But I also dissent from "fully valued/priced for perfection." At 3.7x FCF with zero debt, this is undervalued on any reasonable terminal-decay framework unless you assume the entire portfolio goes to zero within 3-4 years, which contradicts the still-growing Jornay franchise. Fair value sits in the $48-58 range: apply a 6-8x FCF multiple appropriate for a declining-but-cash-generative specialty pharma to a normalized ~$275M FCF (haircut for the Q1 softness), add net cash of ~$7/share, and you get roughly $55. That's 50%+ upside from $35.98, not 650%. The thesis is dependent on the Q2 2026 print stabilizing sequential revenue above $190M and Jornay PM continuing to offset Xtampza/Belbuca decay — measurable at the next earnings release. Starter position warranted; this is a value/special-situation, not a growth story, and the models that treat it otherwise are miscalibrated.

GPT Reading
Independent reading · gpt-5.4 · generated 2026-07-30 20:33:17
Verdict Undervalued at $35.98 — the market is over-discounting durability risk in a net-cash business generating extraordinary free cash flow; fair value looks closer to $45-$50 if revenue holds near $190M+ per quarter.

What stands out immediately is how cheap the business looks on enterprise value against the actual cash it is throwing off, and how misleading the headline P/E is if you stop there. On 2025 numbers, Collegium did $780.6M of revenue, $179.6M of operating income, and $327.6M of free cash flow, against a market cap of just $1.17B and cash of $231.3M. With no debt shown, EV is roughly $940M, which is only about 1.2x revenue and barely 5.2x operating income. Even more striking, the free-cash-flow yield on market cap is about 28%. For a specialty pharma company that has grown revenue from $566.8M in 2023 to $631.4M in 2024 to $780.6M in 2025, that is not a “priced for perfection” setup; it is a market saying either the cash flow is not durable or earnings quality is suspect.

The quarterly progression does show why investors hesitate, but I think the hesitation has overshot. Revenue has risen materially year over year in every comparable quarter shown: $177.8M to $193.5M in Q1, $145.3M to $188.0M in Q2, $159.3M to $209.4M in Q3, and $181.9M to $205.4M in Q4. That is real scale-up, not accounting noise. The issue is margin volatility: net margin swung from 1.4% in 2025-03 to 15.0% in 2025-09, then back to 8.3% and 7.5%. Annual net income actually fell from $69.2M in 2024 to $62.9M in 2025 despite nearly $150M of added revenue, which tells you incremental sales are not flowing cleanly to GAAP earnings. But operating income still improved from $169.9M to $179.6M, and gross margin held near 59.4%. To me the core franchise looks economically solid, with below-the-line or non-cash items muddying the income statement far more than the business fundamentals.

That interpretation is reinforced by the cash flow statement. Operating cash flow of $329.3M versus net income of $62.9M is an enormous gap, and capex of only $1.7M means nearly all of that converted to free cash flow. You should not blindly annualize that, but even if normalized free cash flow were half the reported level, the stock is still inexpensive. The balance sheet also matters here: $231.3M of cash and zero reported debt gives management flexibility, lowers financial risk, and creates optionality for buybacks or acquisitions. A 4.7x price-to-book multiple looks high in isolation, but for asset-light pharma that metric is mostly irrelevant; the market is paying for marketed products and cash generation, not hard assets. If anything, the combination of 23.0% operating margin, positive ROE, and net cash should command more than 1.83x sales unless the product base is in structural decline, and the revenue history here does not yet show that.

The best case against this bullish read is that the market may be correctly discounting a peak-cash-flow year in a category that deserves a structural haircut. Specialty pain assets can be politically, clinically, and commercially fragile. The quarterly revenue trend, while positive year over year, may already be flattening sequentially: $209.4M in 2025-09, $205.4M in 2025-12, and $193.5M in 2026-03. If that is more than seasonality, then 2025 could prove to be the high-water mark for earnings power. The earnings quality question is also real in the opposite direction from my argument: when free cash flow so vastly exceeds net income, sometimes that reflects one-time working-capital benefits rather than sustainably superior economics. And the insider tape is not giving a bullish signal, even if the “sales” shown are small and mixed with option exercises and stock awards. A smart bear would say this is a no-growth or ex-growth specialty pharma name that deserves a low multiple because durability, not current cash generation, is the whole game.

What would change my mind is straightforward. If the next two quarters show revenue slipping below roughly $185M with operating leverage worsening and net margins stuck in the mid-single digits, then the “cheap cash machine” case breaks because the market will have been right that 2025 cash flow was inflated or non-repeatable. I would also turn more cautious if operating cash flow drops sharply away from earnings without a good explanation, since that would undermine the single strongest support for the stock. On the other hand, if Collegium can sustain quarterly revenue around $190M-$200M, keep gross margin near 58%-60%, and convert even $200M+ a year to free cash flow, then a stock at $35.98 looks plainly undervalued; on that base I think fair value is at least in the mid-$40s, with $50 not unreasonable.

Grok Reading
Independent reading · grok-4.5 · generated 2026-07-30 20:33:58
Verdict Undervalued cash compounder at $36—~3x EV/FCF and 28% FCF yield on a debt-free $780M-revenue franchise

Collegium’s numbers tell a cash-compounding story the earnings multiple completely obscures. Revenue climbed from $631M in 2024 to $781M in 2025 (+24%), and the trailing four quarters still sit near $800M annualized even after a soft $193.5M print in Q1 2026. What matters more is the $328M free-cash-flow figure against a $1.17B market cap—roughly a 28% FCF yield—and an enterprise value of only ~$940M once the $231M cash pile and zero debt are netted out. That is sub-3x EV/FCF for a business throwing off 42% FCF margins with virtually no capex. Operating margin held at 23% and gross margin at 59%; the yawning gap between $180M of operating income and $63M of reported net income is almost certainly heavy amortization of acquired intangibles, a non-cash charge that makes the 21x P/E look ordinary while the cash yield looks extraordinary. ROE of 21% on a clean balance sheet seals the picture of a mature specialty-pharma cash engine being priced as if the engine is about to seize.

Sequential revenue did roll over—from $209M in Q3 2025 to $205M then $194M—and year-on-year growth has decelerated from the mid-20s into high single digits. Net margins swing wildly quarter to quarter (1.4% to 15%), and ROA of only 3.8% hints that the asset base still carries a lot of historical acquisition goodwill. Those are real soft spots, yet they do not erase the fact that Collegium converted nearly every dollar of EBITDA into spendable cash while carrying no leverage. Insider activity is mostly option exercises and routine awards, not the “unusual selling” flag some models waved; the secondary-signal package over-weights noise.

The strongest opposing case is that the market is correctly discounting an eroding franchise. Pain-management products face secular opioid-prescribing restrictions, the ADHD piece may not fully offset that, and a 24% revenue leap could prove a one-time bolus from prior deals rather than a sustainable trajectory. If FCF normalizes down toward the $60–70M net-income run-rate once working-capital tailwinds fade, the stock is only modestly cheap at 15–18x forward earnings and the 29% drawdown from the 52-week high is deserved. A smart skeptic would also note that 1.8x sales and 4.7x book are not crisis multiples; they already embed modest growth, so any further deceleration leaves limited multiple support. I weigh this less heavily because the absolute cash generation is too large, too lightly taxed by capex, and too unlevered to ignore; even a 30–40% haircut to FCF still leaves a double-digit free-cash-flow yield.

I would reverse to neutral or bearish if two consecutive quarters show revenue below $180M and FCF margins compress under 25%, or if a regulatory action directly impairs the pain portfolio’s cash contribution. Conversely, a return to double-digit top-line growth with net margins stabilizing above 10% would push me from undervalued to emphatically cheap.

Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Each AI above independently stated a direction (undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued) and how strongly it believes it (conviction, 0–5). We combine those into a Bull-Bear Index on a 0–10 scale: 5 is neutral, 10 is maximum bullish (undervalued at full conviction), 0 is maximum bearish. We compute the score ourselves with the same arithmetic for every seat — the models never grade their own bullishness — so the three are directly comparable. Δ shows how far each seat sits from the panel average of 8.7; a large Δ marks the dissenting voice, usually the one worth reading.
Claude claude-opus-4-7 8.0
undervalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ -0.7 vs panel · self: 7.0
GPT gpt-5.4 9.0
undervalued · conviction 4/5 · Δ +0.3 vs panel · self: 7.0
Grok grok-4.5 9.0
undervalued · conviction 4/5 · Δ +0.3 vs panel · self: 7.0
Second-round check hasn't run yet for this ticker — it runs after all three seats on the next report.
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · three lenses
Three separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-07-30 21:19:37
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Crushed-but-real - starter now, add under $32 7/10
Quality specialty-pharma cash machine at ~3.6x FCF with net cash and a live buyback - cheap enough to act, concentrated enough to size modestly.
The cruxWhether Jornay PM growth and buyback compounding can offset opioid-franchise erosion fast enough to prove today's ~28% FCF yield is real and durable.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from COLL's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwayFortress Balance Sheet
DilutionShare Count Shrinking
Earnings QualityGood Earnings Quality
The three lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+55
Strong
edge √Σ 137 · risk √Σ 76 · conf 7/10

Collegium is a mature specialty pharma earner that has scaled revenue from $277M (2021) to $781M (2025), roughly 2.8x in four years, while operating margins stepped up from 6-7% to a stable 23-27% range. Cash generation is the standout: FCF of $327.6M in 2025 (42% FCF margin) against $62.9M reported net income gives OCF/NI of 2.08x — earnings quality looks real, and accruals of -12.3% of assets plus a Beneish M of -3.32 point away from manipulation. The balance sheet holds $386.7M net cash, so the Altman Z of 1.44 is a model artifact of a light-asset, intangible-heavy pharma rather than a real distress signal (worth verifying against debt notes).
Capital discipline is unusually good for the industry: diluted shares have drifted from 41.0M to 39.7M (-0.8% CAGR) with buyback/SBC at 149.5%, meaning management is a net buyer sopping up its own compensation dilution. The concern set is qualitative: this is a specialty pain/CNS franchise (Nucynta, Belbuca, Jornay) subject to patent cliffs, DEA quota, and payor pressure — the 2022 net loss of $25M during the Belbuca/BDSI integration shows the model can wobble. Insider activity is skewed to sales ($3.36M sold, zero opens buys over 12 months), though most is option-exercise-and-sell mechanics rather than conviction dumping.

Strengths 4
m78
Elite cash conversion
FCF $327.6M on $780.6M revenue = 42% FCF margin, with OCF/NI 2.08x and accruals -12.3% of assets — cash is running well ahead of GAAP earnings.
m70
Net cash, self-funding
$386.7M liquid cash (33% of market cap) with no funding needs — survival math is not a question.
m65
Share count shrinking
Diluted shares down from 41.0M to 39.7M since 2021 (-0.8% CAGR); buybacks run 149.5% of the 5.4%-of-revenue SBC bill, so per-share value is being concentrated.
m60
Operating leverage realized
Op margin expanded from 6.4% (2021) to 23-29% range (2023-2025) as revenue nearly tripled — the platform is scaling profitably post-BDSI.
Concerns 4
m55
Drug/therapeutic concentration
Revenue base is a narrow set of controlled-substance pain and ADHD assets (Nucynta, Belbuca, Jornay PM) — franchise durability hinges on patent/exclusivity timelines not visible in derived data.
m35
Insider tape one-sided
8 sells / 0 buys for $3.36M over 12 months; largely option-exercise-and-sell (M then S same day), not screaming conviction dumping but no insider is stepping up either.
m30
Margin lumpiness and 2022 loss
GM swung from 54.4% (2021) to 45.2% (2022) to 59.8% (2024); 2022 posted a $25M net loss around the BDSI acquisition — integration/one-off risk is real in this model.
m25
Altman Z 1.44 flag (likely benign)
Distress-zone Z-score reflects intangible-heavy pharma balance sheet rather than real bankruptcy risk given $386.7M net cash and $327M FCF, but debt structure deserves verification.
This is a genuinely well-run specialty pharma cash machine - the kind of profile that is rarer than it looks in this industry. Revenue nearly tripled, margins expanded meaningfully, cash conversion is elite, and management is actually shrinking the share count rather than paying themselves in dilution. That combination earns real credit. What holds me back from calling it 'Fortress' or pushing above 75 is the business model itself: controlled-substance specialty pain assets have finite runways, payor pressure is chronic, and I cannot see product-level exclusivity from this data. The insider tape is mildly negative but mechanically explainable. Net-net: a Strong business with a specific, verifiable overhang around franchise durability.
Verify before trusting this (6)
  • Debt/convertible structure and maturity ladder behind the Altman Z 1.44 signal
  • Revenue concentration by product (Nucynta, Belbuca, Jornay PM) and remaining exclusivity/patent runway
  • Nature of the 2022 net loss - BDSI acquisition accounting vs. underlying operations
  • Whether insider sells are pre-arranged 10b5-1 plans or discretionary
  • Royalty/milestone obligations tied to acquired assets that could pressure future FCF
  • Working capital and inventory build patterns behind the $327M FCF print
Valuation / Mispricing
+43
Undervalued
edge √Σ 100 · risk √Σ 53 · conf 6/10
Price $35.98 vs a defensible deserved value of ~$50 (EPV floor) - roughly 28% discount, a real margin of safety on cash-adjusted numbers. attractive below $32.00

The e2e composite FV of $210.87 and DCF of $291.26 are not credible anchors - a fair value 6-8x the current price implies a runaway growth/terminal assumption on an opioid-heavy specialty pharma with real franchise decay risk. I discount those hard and lean on the EPV floor of $50.10, which is the sober number here. Against that, $35.98 is roughly a 28% discount, a real but not extreme margin of safety. The more compelling angle is the cash math: $327M FCF on a $1.17B market cap is a ~28% FCF yield, and the business is net cash with a shrinking share count. Even if you assume Belbuca/Xtampza erode and only Jornay PM grows, half the current FCF run-rate justifies today's price. What is priced in: terminal decline of the opioid franchise, legal/reputational overhang, and skepticism that Jornay can offset the runoff. What is not priced in: the buyback compounding, net cash cushion, and the fact that even a melting ice cube throwing off this much cash is worth more than 3.6x. Fairly-valued would require the opioid book to actively shrink FCF meaningfully within 2-3 years; possible, but the price already assumes it.

Cheap signals 3
m70
~28% FCF yield on a profitable business
$327M FCF against a $1.17B market cap is a ~28% yield. Even with steep opioid-franchise decay assumptions, the cash economics are hard to reconcile with today's price.
m55
Trades below EPV floor
EPV floor of $50.10 vs price $35.98 implies ~28% discount to a no-growth, capitalized-earnings anchor - the most defensible of the fair-value inputs.
m45
Net cash plus buyback shrinks the denominator
Quality lens flags net cash and a declining share count. Every year of ~$300M FCF at this multiple mechanically compounds per-share value if the buyback continues.
Rich / priced-in 2
m40
DCF and composite FV are not credible
Composite $210.87 and DCF $291.26 imply 6-8x upside on a specialty pharma with concentration risk - almost certainly a runaway terminal assumption. I ignore them as anchors.
m35
Legitimate terminal-decline risk is the reason it's cheap
Opioid franchise faces structural prescribing headwinds, legal/reputational overhang, and drug-concentration risk. The low multiple is not a free lunch - it reflects real erosion probability.
This looks cheap on the numbers that matter - roughly 3.6x FCF, below the EPV floor, net cash, buying back stock. I don't buy the $210+ fair values for a second, but I don't need to; the EPV anchor alone gives me ~28% margin of safety and the FCF yield does the rest. It is cheap for a reason (opioid melt risk is real), so I would size modestly and want it under $32 for a fatter cushion, but at $35.98 the price is genuinely below deserved value.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Belbuca and Xtampza ER script trends and net pricing in the latest 10-Q
  • Jornay PM growth trajectory and whether it is offsetting opioid revenue decline
  • Remaining buyback authorization and pace of repurchases
  • Any updated opioid-litigation reserves or settlement disclosures
  • Management guidance on FCF and capital allocation priorities
General Sentiment
+0
Tailwind
tail √Σ 0 · head √Σ 0 · conf 6/10

COLL sits in a neutral macro regime (VIX 17, S&P near highs) with a low beta of 0.73, so the market tape barely moves this name either way. The dominant sentiment force is stock-specific: price is compounding at 17% CAGR and accelerating to 23.6% recently, which signals accumulation is quietly happening despite zero narrative energy (intensity minimal, cult low). That is classic fallen-angel behavior - the tape is voting with its feet ahead of any story rehabilitation. The bear narrative (opioid stigma, structural decline) is well-known and stale; it is already priced in, not actively re-rating the stock lower. Meanwhile there is no fresh negative catalyst pressing the name, and the fragile-but-quiet narrative means any incremental positive data point (Jornay PM growth, capital return, litigation clarity) has room to move the tape. Net: momentum tailwind and absence of active narrative pressure outweigh the latent opioid discount, which is a chronic condition rather than an acute headwind right now.

Tailwinds 0

None surfaced.

Headwinds 0

None surfaced.

The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
Please log in to view trade setups
The Augustus trade-setup read is a members feature.
Log in
Three lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), and General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Character & Durability Scorecard
Ten long-horizon business-character traits the Quality / Value / Sentiment lenses don’t break out, scored 1–10.
Scored Jul 30, 2026 9:22pm
Survivability 8/10

Fortress balance sheet with substantial net cash and strong FCF generation provides excellent cushion against shocks, though limited multi-cycle track record as a mature earner.

  • Net cash $386.7M (33% of market cap) with zero debt and self-funding FCF of $327.6M
  • Survived and thrived through 2020-2022 period, turning $25M loss in 2022 into consistent profitability
confidence: high · from our data
Adaptability 7/10

Demonstrated ability to scale the business and improve unit economics significantly over a short period, suggesting effective operational adaptation.

  • Revenue grew from $277M to $781M (2021-2025) while expanding gross margin from 54% to 59%
  • Operating margin expanded from 6.4% to 23% despite pharma industry pricing pressures
confidence: medium · from our data
Moat Trajectory 6/10

Specialty formulation moats are real but time-limited by patent expiry, with the trajectory uncertain as key products face eventual generic entry.

  • Specialty pharma in opioid abuse-deterrent formulations faces patent cliffs and generic competition
  • Gross margin expansion from 54% to 59% suggests some pricing power or mix improvement
confidence: medium · general knowledge
Capital Allocation 7/10

Management is returning capital via buybacks that more than offset dilution while maintaining a fortress balance sheet, though insider selling of $3.4M raises minor alignment questions.

  • Net share repurchaser with diluted shares declining 0.8% CAGR and buyback/SBC ratio of 149.5%
  • Built $386.7M net cash position while buying back stock, demonstrating disciplined balance
confidence: medium · from our data
Pricing Power 7/10

Sustained gross margin expansion during a growth phase indicates meaningful pricing power, though specialty pharma dynamics create uncertainty around durability.

  • Gross margin expanded from 54.4% to 59.8% over four years
  • Revenue grew 182% while margins expanded, suggesting ability to capture value
confidence: medium · from our data
Management Alignment 5/10

Mixed signals with one-sided insider selling flagged as unusual, offset partially by net share repurchases and strong operational execution track record.

  • Unusual insider selling activity: 8 sells totaling $3.4M with zero buys in last 12 months
  • SBC at 5.4% of revenue is meaningful but buybacks exceed SBC by 50%
confidence: medium · from our data
Demand Durability 6/10

Chronic pain management has durable demand, but the opioid segment faces policy headwinds and the shift toward non-opioid alternatives creates mixed long-term dynamics.

  • Opioid abuse-deterrent medications address ongoing chronic pain and addiction crisis
  • Specialty pharma faces regulatory and reimbursement pressures that create uncertainty
confidence: medium · general knowledge
Growth Consistency 7/10

Consistent revenue growth with only modest FCF volatility demonstrates reliable delivery, though the four-year window and single down year in FCF prevent an elite score.

  • Revenue grew every year: $277M to $463M to $567M to $631M to $781M (2021-2025)
  • FCF trajectory: $102M to $123M to $274M to $203M to $328M shows growth with some lumpiness
confidence: high · from our data
Optionality / Runway 5/10

Limited visibility into pipeline and TAM expansion runway, though substantial cash provides acquisition optionality to extend product portfolio beyond current franchises.

  • Specialty pharma with $1.2B market cap has scaled rapidly but faces product-lifecycle constraints
  • Net cash position of $387M provides M&A optionality for pipeline expansion
confidence: low · general knowledge
Concentration / Key-Person Risk
Insufficient basis to score this attribute — not enough in our data or reliable general knowledge.

Cannot assess concentration across customers, products, or key personnel without segment or product revenue breakdown.

  • No customer concentration or product mix data provided in brief
  • Specialty pharma companies often have concentrated product portfolios but unknown here
Scorecard v1 · 10 = most favorable for a long-term owner (incl. lower concentration risk). Some attributes draw on general knowledge where our data is thin — see each row's source tag.
Community AI Feedback
No community reviews yet for COLL. Be the first — hit How to Contribute, have any AI review this page, and paste its take back here.
My Notes personal — only you see this
Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · twelvedata
v1.1.515 · 9f7cac68 · 2026-08-08 13:09:58