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AGING Analysis Report
Aug 11, 2026
12 days ago · 100% complete
NOT DEPENDABLE This report predates a filing — its financial basis has been replaced.
Report generated: Aug 11, 2026 · Filing on record since: Aug 22, 2026 · 10 days after
For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page

What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for CRH plc (CRH) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.

Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Watch · Gem Score -8 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 61 · Value -65 · Sentiment 31 (timing only, not weighted)

Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable reference-name attribute you can cite):

  • profile-header / price-overview — company profile, live quote, market cap
  • extended-analysisthe core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memo
  • future-predictions — our forward price-band predictions
  • market-narrative / ai-findings / gpt-critique — narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)
  • Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers): price-history, income-trend, key-metrics, financials (statement tables), insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.

More for machine readers: site briefing at /llms.txt · any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER · raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds); every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.

CRH plc

CRH NYSE
Basic Materials · Building Materials
Dublin, D16 KH51, Ireland crh.com Updated Aug 11, 12:34pm
Price
$101.31
Market Cap
$66.9B
Employees
83,032
Beta
1.20
Avg Volume
4,168,319
Last Dividend
$1.52
CEO
Mr. Jim Mintern

CRH plc is a leading global provider of building materials essential for construction projects worldwide. The company manufactures a diverse range of products, including aggregates, asphalt, cement, ready-mixed concrete, concrete pipes, blocks, and precast concrete elements. Operating through a vertically integrated business model, CRH plc supplies materials for infrastructure, residential, commercial, and industrial developments. Its portfolio features well-known brands such as Oldcastle Materials Group, Basalite Concrete Products, Interstate Brick, and Pacific Coast Building Products. With a strong presence across developed markets and North America as its primary region, CRH plc holds significant positions in key industries like sand and gravel mining, asphalt manufacturing, and concrete production. The company supports major construction initiatives by delivering high-quality, reliable materials from thousands of locations in 28 countries. Founded in 1970 and headquartered in Dublin, Ireland, CRH plc plays a vital role in the building materials sector, enabling the built environment through its comprehensive product offerings and operational scale.

Runs with full report Generated: Aug 11, 2026 2:56pm
Price Overview
Price at report time
$101.15
as of Aug 11, 3:04pm (12d ago)
Change · Aug 11
+0.55 (+0.55%)
Day Range
$100.44 – $102.26
52-Week Range
$94.12 – $131.55
50-Day MA
$104.29
200-Day MA
$113.34
Volume
280,109.00
Right now · live
Log in to get the live feed
Members see the real-time price and the move since this report (over 12d).
Share Structure
Outstanding 665,895,636.00
Float 645,113,085.00
Free Float 96.9%
High free float — 96.9% of shares trade freely, ~3.1% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Aug 11, 2026 3:04pm (12d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Aug 11, 2026 3:04pm (12d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
TD Twelve Data statement HEX SEC filing
Industry comparison last run: Aug 11, 2026 2:54pm
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
HEX
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
18.39
Stock Price: $101.31
EPS (Diluted): 5.51
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
HEX
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
2.69
Stock Price: $101.31
Total Equity: $25.48B
Shares: 677,000,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
HEX
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
10.60
Market Cap: $66.93B
Total Debt: $17.65B
Cash: $4.10B
EBITDA: $7.60B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
HEX
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$80.5B
Market Cap: $66.93B
Total Debt: $17.65B
Cash: $4.10B
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
HEX
Gross Profit / Revenue
36.1%
Gross Profit: $13.53B
Revenue: $37.45B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
HEX
Operating Income / Revenue
14.5%
Operating Income: $5.44B
Revenue: $37.45B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
HEX
Net Income / Revenue
10.0%
Net Income: $3.75B
Revenue: $37.45B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
HEX
Net Income / Total Equity
14.7%
Net Income: $3.75B
Total Equity: $25.48B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
HEX
NOPAT / Invested Capital
10.9%
Operating Income: $5.44B
Tax Rate: 21.7%
Equity: $25.48B
Total Debt: $17.65B
Cash: $4.10B
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
HEX
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
1.74
Current Assets: $15.25B
Current Liabilities: $8.75B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
HEX
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.69
Short-Term Debt: $1.18B
Long-Term Debt: $16.48B
Total Debt: $17.65B
Total Equity: $25.48B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
HEX
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$55.31
Revenue: $37.45B
Shares: 677,000,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
HEX
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$37.63
Total Equity: $25.48B
Shares: 677,000,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
HEX
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$4.30
Operating CF: $5.63B
CapEx: -$2.71B
Shares: 677,000,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
TD
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
1.5%
Last Dividend: $1.52
Stock Price: $101.31
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
HEX
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $3.75B
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Aug 11, 2026 2:54pm
Compares CRH against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 11, 2026 3:04pm (12d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $29.2B $32.7B $34.9B $35.6B $37.4B
Cost of Revenue $19.4B $21.9B $23.0B $22.9B $23.9B
Gross Profit $9.8B $10.8B $12.0B $12.7B $13.5B
Operating Expenses $6.5B $7.0B $7.8B $7.8B $8.1B
Operating Income $3.3B $3.8B $4.2B $4.9B $5.4B
Net Income $2.6B $3.9B $3.2B $3.5B $3.8B
EBITDA $4.9B $5.4B $5.8B $6.7B $7.6B
EPS $3.35 $5.15 $4.36 $5.06 $5.54
EPS (Diluted) $3.32 $5.11 $4.33 $5.02 $5.51
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 11, 2026 12:34pm (12d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $5.8B $5.9B $6.3B $3.7B $4.1B
Total Current Assets $14.8B $16.9B $14.1B $15.3B
Total Assets $45.3B $47.5B $50.6B $58.3B
Current Liabilities $8.0B $10.0B $10.3B $8.8B
Long-Term Debt $8.1B $9.8B $11.0B $16.5B
Total Liabilities $22.3B $25.8B $27.8B $32.9B
Total Equity $21.6B $23.0B $21.6B $22.9B $25.5B
Retained Earnings $22.5B $22.9B $24.0B $25.6B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 11, 2026 3:04pm (12d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $4.0B $3.8B $5.0B $5.0B $5.6B
Capital Expenditure -$1.6B -$1.5B -$1.8B -$2.6B -$2.7B
Free Cash Flow $2.4B $2.3B $3.2B $2.4B $2.9B
Acquisitions (net) -$1.5B -$3.3B -$640.0M -$4.9B -$3.9B
Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) -$1.2B -$326.0M $1.7B $2.1B $2.9B
Dividends Paid -$938.0M -$930.0M
Stock Buybacks -$896.0M -$1.2B -$3.1B -$1.5B -$1.2B
Net Change in Cash -$1.9B $153.0M $454.0M -$2.6B $388.0M
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 11, 2026 3:04pm (12d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +12.0% +6.8% +1.8% +5.3%
Gross Profit Growth +10.1% +10.6% +6.2% +6.5%
Operating Income Growth +14.5% +9.9% +17.7% +10.5%
Net Income Growth +46.8% -17.7% +9.9% +7.5%
EBITDA Growth +10.4% +8.0% +15.5% +13.0%
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 11, 2026 12:34pm (12d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-05-15 $0.39
2026-03-06 $0.39
2025-05-23 $0.37
2025-03-14 $0.37
2024-11-22 $0.35
2024-08-23 $0.35
2024-05-23 $0.35
2024-03-14 $0.35
2023-12-14 $1.08
2023-10-19 $0.25
2023-03-16 $1.03
2022-09-08 $0.24
2022-03-16 $0.98
2021-09-09 $0.23
2021-03-18 $0.94
2020-09-03 $0.22
2020-03-12 $0.69
2019-09-05 $0.22
2019-03-14 $0.58
2018-09-06 $0.23
0Company Classification 1Industry Landscape 2Company Momentum 3Forward Projection 4aDCF Valuation 4bEarnings Power Value 4cAnchored PE 4dReverse DCF 4eRevenue-Based DCF 4fAnchored P/S 4gScenario Analysis 4hDividend Discount Model 4iBook Value Analysis 4jInsider Activity 4fCash Flow Quality 4gDebt Maturity Risk 4hMacro Environment 4iSector Intelligence 4jRevenue Confidence 4kSensitivity Analysis 4lSector Demand Cycle 5AI Investigation 5bThesis Evaluation 6Valuation Synthesis
computed not applicable not yet run 12 computed · 6 not applicable · 6 not yet run
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for CRH — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
AI Lens 4th lens · how AI reaches this business · 5-yr
2026-08-11
The creme is there an opportunity here? Conditional opportunity
CRH is one of the few Basic Materials names where AI shows up as demand and input cost rather than disruption risk — own the permitted tonnage, not the software story.
Exposure is modest (31) but the sign is favorable (position 63): scarcity_migration at 85 and entrant_compression at 86 say cheap intelligence makes permitted reserves near metro and power nodes relatively rarer, while ai_margin_conversion at 63 offers a slow, real gain from ready-mix dispatch and kiln optimisation on top of OpM that already moved 11.4%→14.5%. The kill switches are specific: Americas Materials margin giving back ground to electricity and fuel inflation, and volumes decoupling from headline construction spend as AI structural design trims concrete per structure. Watch energy cost per ton and any disclosure of data-center/power-infrastructure volume share — that pair resolves the 45-76 range before the cycle narrative does.
63
AI Position
Mildly favorable - physical scarcity, demand-side AI exposure
Cheap intelligence cannot reproduce a permitted quarry within 30 miles of a metro, so AI reaches CRH mainly as demand (data centers, grid, fabs), input-cost inflation, and modest operating leverage in dispatch and kilns.
Exposure 31 Confidence 71 50 = neutral
Primary Tailwind

AI capex is concrete-, aggregate- and asphalt-intensive: hyperscale data centers, substations, transmission and fab sites consume enormous volumes of ready-mix and base material that must be sourced within short haul radii of the site, which is exactly CRH's vertically integrated US footprint.

Primary Pressure

AI-driven electricity and fuel demand raises the marginal cost of the most energy-intensive part of the portfolio — cement kilns, asphalt plants, ready-mix fleets — and generative structural design plus AI-optimised reinforcement can cut cubic yards of concrete per structure, quietly eroding volume intensity per dollar of construction spend.

Critical Hinge

Whether AI-related infrastructure becomes a visible share of CRH's US volumes faster than energy-cost inflation and material-intensity optimisation bite; watch data-center/power-related backlog commentary against per-ton energy cost in the Americas Materials segment.

Hard to Reproduce

Permitted aggregates reserves and asphalt/ready-mix plant networks inside metro haul distance, DOT-approved mix designs and prequalification, plus multi-decade zoning consents — none of which get cheaper when software does.

Forensic fingerprint same 11 factors for every stock · 0 unfavorable · 50 neutral · 100 favorable
Underlying Need Persistence do people still need this at all? 93
Roads, foundations and structures need physical material regardless of intelligence costs.
Every AI-era asset — data center slabs, substation pads, fab shells, the roads serving them — increases rather than reduces demand for aggregates and cementitious material.
US highway and state DOT funding levels · Data-center and power construction starts · Residential starts in CRH metros
relevance 72 · confidence 90
Solution Persistence will they still solve it this way? 87
Concrete, asphalt and crushed stone remain the delivery form; substitution is slow and marginal.
Alternatives (mass timber, prefab modules, 3D printing) still consume cementitious material and remain niche; the binding constraint is haul distance, not technology.
Mass timber share in commercial projects · Low-clinker cement mix adoption · Prefab/precast share of CRH volumes
relevance 58 · confidence 78
Intelligence Commoditization does cheap AI power them or copy them? 61
Cheap AI is a tool CRH buys, not a competitor that copies it.
Commoditised intelligence lowers the cost of quarry planning, kiln control and dispatch software for everyone, so it is a shared input rather than a differentiator; CRH's advantage stays in reserves and plant location.
Capex on automation and telematics · Autonomous haulage pilots at quarries · SG&A as % of revenue trend
relevance 36 · confidence 68
Responsibility Transfer are they paid to take the blame? 56
CRH carries spec, testing and performance liability on mix designs, but it is not primarily paid for blame absorption.
DOT prequalification, ASTM compliance and structural performance warranties keep customers using approved suppliers, which blunts any AI-enabled newcomer, though liability is not the core purchase driver.
DOT prequalification retention · Product warranty and claims expense · Spec-driven contract share
relevance 29 · confidence 62
Scarcity Migration do their assets get rarer or more common? 85
As software and analysis become abundant, permitted reserves near demand centers get relatively scarcer and more valuable.
AI cannot permit a quarry, secure zoning, or shorten a haul; simultaneously AI-era construction concentrates demand near power and metro nodes where reserve access is most constrained.
Reserve life and permitted tonnage disclosure · Aggregates price per ton growth · Greenfield permit denials in key states
relevance 86 · confidence 82
Customer DIY Preference will customers just build it themselves? 80
Contractors cannot self-supply tonnage; vertical backward integration is capital- and permit-bound.
Large contractors occasionally own plants, but AI does nothing to reduce the reserve, permit and fleet capital needed to internalise supply.
Contractor backward integration deals · Owner-supplied material clauses · Large-contractor consolidation moves
relevance 31 · confidence 80
AI Intermediation Position do AI agents go through them or around them? 54
Agentic procurement could add price transparency to a market that profits from local opacity.
AI-assisted bidding and materials procurement platforms could systematically compare regional quotes, mildly compressing the local pricing power that has driven recent margin expansion — but haul economics still limit real supplier choice.
Adoption of AI bid/procurement platforms · Realised price vs list price spread · Bid-win rates on public projects
relevance 34 · confidence 58
Data Leverage does their data make AI better? 52
Operational data is useful internally but is not a compounding external moat.
Plant, fleet and pricing telemetry can improve CRH's own yield and dispatch, yet none of it creates a network effect or a product competitors must buy.
Digital/commercial excellence disclosures · Ready-mix truck utilisation metrics · Plant downtime and energy per ton
relevance 30 · confidence 60
AI Margin Conversion do the AI savings become profit? 63
Real but slow-diffusing savings in dispatch, maintenance and kiln control, partly offset by AI-inflated energy costs.
With OpM already up from 11.4% to 14.5%, incremental AI-driven logistics and process gains are additive; the offset is electricity and fuel inflation driven partly by the same AI buildout, and pricing pass-through in fragmented markets is decent but not absolute.
Americas Materials EBITDA margin · Energy cost per ton of cement · Overhead reduction from shared services
relevance 61 · confidence 64
Revenue Unit Durability does the thing they charge for survive? 73
Tons and cubic yards survive, but material per structure can be optimised down.
The monetised unit is physical and immune to seat-count or interface disruption; the subtle risk is AI structural design and reinforcement optimisation reducing volume intensity per dollar of construction spend.
Volume vs construction-spend divergence · Concrete yards per project trend · Low-carbon mix design volume effects
relevance 56 · confidence 66
Entrant Compression how easily can newcomers copy them? 86
Barriers are permits, reserves and plants — none of which cheap software compresses.
AI-native entrants can build brokerage layers but cannot manufacture proximity; the credible competitive threat remains other consolidators bidding for the same finite assets.
Bolt-on acquisition multiples paid · New entrant permits granted · Aggregates asset transaction prices
relevance 66 · confidence 80

AI Lens thesis

CRH sells weight, proximity and compliance, not information: the monetised unit is tons and cubic yards delivered within a short haul radius, and no amount of cheap inference creates a new quarry, a new permit, or a truck that arrives before the concrete sets. AI therefore enters through four narrow channels — (1) demand, where AI-era buildout of data centers, transmission and fabs is unusually materials-heavy and lands in CRH's US core; (2) inputs, where AI-driven power demand inflates the energy bill for kilns and plants; (3) internal cost, where dispatch optimisation, predictive maintenance, autonomous haulage and kiln control can add real but slow-diffusing points of margin across thousands of decentralised locations; and (4) volume intensity, where AI structural optimisation reduces material per structure. Disruption risk to the product, the interface or the customer relationship is close to nil; the fragmented-market pricing power that has driven GM from 33.6% to 36.1% rests on geography and consolidation, not on information asymmetry AI can dissolve.

Thesis breaker Sustained Americas Materials margin compression attributed to energy and electricity costs while volumes flatten would flip the read from mild tailwind to cost-squeezed cyclical. Conversely, explicit disclosure of data-center/power-infrastructure volumes at premium pricing would push it higher.
What the market may be underestimating

Upside Ready-mix is a perishable, logistics-bound product with historically poor asset utilisation; AI dispatch and truck-cycle optimisation across a fleet of that scale is a rare case where software converts directly into deliveries per truck-day and fixed-cost absorption, and CRH's decentralised roll-up gives it more slack to harvest than best-in-class peers.

Downside AI code and generative design tools that trim reinforced-concrete volumes 10-20% per structure would reduce tons per dollar of construction spend — a silent decoupling of CRH volumes from headline infrastructure budgets that no cycle chart would flag as AI-caused.

Outcome range spread 31

45Bear case
62Central case
76Bull case
Three headline numbers, deliberately never blended: Position (which way), Exposure (how much it matters at all), Confidence (how sure). The fingerprint asks every stock the same 11 questions so companies a sector label would lump together get told apart. Not an input to GEM/Coal or the Q/V/S lenses.
Claude Reading
Independent analyst synthesis · claude-opus-4-7 · generated 2026-08-11 15:03:45
Verdict Fully priced to modestly overvalued — fair value $78-82 on normalized mid-cycle margins; no entry above $90, and the FCF/NI gap plus late-cycle infrastructure spend argues for patience over accumulation.

Looking at the raw quarterlies first: CRH's business is brutally seasonal — Q1 2026 rev $7.37B with a $176M loss, Q1 2025 rev $6.76B with a $94M loss, Q1 mattering less than the Q2-Q3 build season where they printed $10.21B/$11.07B and ~13% net margins. That seasonality means the "decelerating quarterly trend" flag is mostly noise. What's real: Q1 2026 revenue grew 9.0% YoY off Q1 2025, and the Q1 loss actually widened by $82M, which is not the direction you want if you're paying 18.4x for a mature earner. TTM revenue is running ~$37.8B vs FY25 $37.45B — barely 1% sequential acceleration off a 5.3% recent YoY. This is a low-single-digit organic grower dressed up by acquisition accounting.

The synthesis's $81 fair value looks directionally right but I'd push back on how it's constructed. EV/EBITDA of 10.6x on peak-cycle EBITDA is the real tell — VMC and MLM trade at 18-22x but on aggregates-only mix with structurally higher incremental margins; CRH's blended 14.5% op margin and 10.9% ROIC don't justify pure-play multiples, and the market already knows this (hence the discount). More concerning: FCF CAGR is -4.6% while earnings CAGR is +8.7%. That gap — $2.91B FCF against $3.75B net income, a 78% conversion — signals either working capital bloat, acquisition-related capex creep, or earnings quality erosion. For a "steady compounder" thesis, FCF should be leading, not lagging. Debt at $17.65B against $4.10B cash and $5.63B OCF is manageable (net debt/EBITDA ~2.4x) but leaves little dry powder if the U.S. infrastructure cycle rolls over in 2026-27.

Where I disagree with the prior stack: the Market Forces call of "trough multiples on unsustainable peak earnings" contradicts the Narrative layer's "moderate durability" framing, and I side with Market Forces. The IIJA is 4 years into a 5-year authorization; the incremental federal dollar has already been appropriated and much of it obligated. State DOT budgets remain strong but residential (roughly 25-30% of CRH's mix depending on region) is softening, and non-res is mixed. Pricing has done the heavy lifting for two years — aggregates pricing +11-12% in 2024, likely +6-8% in 2025 — and that lever gets harder as volumes flatten. The bear case isn't a recession; it's simply normalization to mid-cycle margins of 12% instead of 14.5%, which would compress EBITDA by ~$800M-$1B and take EV/EBITDA on normalized numbers to ~13x at current price. Not a disaster, but no upside either.

Contrarian angle worth stating: CRH could deserve a rerating higher, not lower, if the U.S. business (now >75% of EBITDA post-portfolio reshuffle) gets valued separately from the European drag. A sum-of-parts where U.S. gets 15x EBITDA and Europe gets 7x lands closer to $110-115. But that requires management to formally spin or list the U.S. business, which they've shown no interest in doing — the whole point of the NYSE primary listing was to close the gap without structural surgery. Insider activity is uninformative (routine option exercises and small awards, no meaningful open-market buys or sells), and the "?" on filer identity is a data quality flag worth noting but not actionable. I agree with the synthesis's fully_priced verdict but think even $81 is generous — I'd anchor fair value at $78-82 on normalized 12-13% op margins and a 10x EV/EBITDA multiple appropriate for a diversified cyclical, meaning ~20-23% downside to intrinsic and no margin of safety at $101.

GPT Reading
Independent reading · gpt-5.4 · generated 2026-08-11 15:04:03
Verdict Slightly overvalued at $101 — excellent operator, but fair value looks closer to $85-90 unless free cash flow inflects above $3.5B sustainably.

CRH looks like a very good business being priced like a somewhat better one. The operating record is solid: revenue rose from $29.2B in 2021 to $37.5B in 2025, a 6%+ annualized climb, while operating income expanded from $3.33B to $5.44B and operating margin improved from 11.4% to 14.5%. That is not just a commodity volume story; it suggests real pricing discipline, mix improvement, and decent integration of acquisitions. The quarterly pattern also shows the seasonal nature of the business rather than deterioration: Q1 is loss-making both in 2025 and 2026, but the loss only widened from -$94M to -$176M while revenue grew from $6.76B to $7.37B, implying the year started with higher activity but still absorbed fixed costs before the stronger construction quarters. The more important signal is that the last four reported quarters sum to roughly $38.1B of revenue and $3.67B of net income, very close to full-year 2025 and consistent with a business holding its earnings base rather than rolling over.

What gives me pause is not quality but valuation versus cash generation. At a $66.9B market cap, investors are paying about 18.4x earnings, 1.83x sales, and 10.6x EV/EBITDA for a company whose free cash flow in 2025 was $2.91B. That is a roughly 4.3% FCF yield on market cap, or somewhat lower on enterprise value once net debt of about $13.6B is included. For a cyclical building materials company, that is not cheap. Yes, operating cash flow was a healthy $5.63B, but capex of $2.71B consumed nearly half of it, which matters because this is not a software business where cash conversion can structurally expand without reinvestment. The models calling CRH “mature earner” are directionally right on business type, but the more important contradiction is that some narrative framing treats the stock as if it is still discounted for cyclicality. On these numbers, it is not meaningfully discounted; it is valued as a high-quality compounder with cyclical risk largely forgiven.

The balance sheet is fine, not pristine. Debt of $17.65B against $4.10B of cash and $25.48B of equity is manageable, with debt/equity at 0.69 and current ratio 1.74, so I do not see financial stress. Returns are respectable rather than extraordinary: ROE 14.7%, ROIC 10.9%, ROA 6.4%. Those are good numbers in heavy materials, but again, they do not scream “must-pay premium multiple.” The earnings trend from 2023 to 2025 is also strong but not explosive: net income moved from $3.18B to $3.75B over two years, about 8.6% CAGR. That supports a fair multiple in the mid-to-high teens, not an obvious bargain if macro headwinds hit volumes or if pricing finally normalizes. Insider activity is a shrug: mostly option exercises, awards, and small sales, nothing that validates a strong internal conviction signal either way.

The best argument against my caution is straightforward: CRH has earned the right to trade above a plain-vanilla cyclical multiple because the margin structure keeps improving, revenue continues to rise, and end-market exposure is probably better than the word “construction” implies. If the market is looking through residential softness toward infrastructure, public works, and aggregates scarcity in attractive regions, then 18x earnings may be entirely reasonable. On that case, the 2025 step-up in operating profit to $5.44B from $4.93B, plus 2026 Q1 revenue growth of 9%, says demand is proving more resilient than bears expect. If management can sustain 14%+ operating margins and convert even a modestly larger share of earnings into free cash flow, today’s multiple would not be demanding. I weigh that less heavily because free cash flow has not kept up with accounting earnings, with the provided momentum data showing negative FCF CAGR, and because in this industry “resilience” can look strongest near the top of the cycle.

What would change my mind is either a better price or evidence that CRH deserves to be treated more like a secular compounder than a cyclical consolidator. At roughly $80-$85, the stock would offer a materially better margin of safety against volume or pricing slippage while still crediting the quality of the asset base. Alternatively, I would turn more constructive at the current price if the next few quarters show revenue holding above a $38B annual run rate, operating margin staying around 14.5% or better, and free cash flow moving clearly above $3.5B without leverage drifting higher. If instead Q2-Q3 margins slip back toward 12%-13% or full-year FCF stalls around $3B despite higher sales, the market’s premium framing should compress.

Grok Reading
Independent reading · grok-4.5 · generated 2026-08-11 15:04:39
Verdict Overvalued at $101 vs ~$81–85 cash-flow value; quality compounder already pricing peak infra and margins

The numbers describe a high-quality cyclical compounder that has already been paid for the good news. Revenue climbed from $29.2B in 2021 to $37.5B in 2025 on a 3.5% CAGR while operating income expanded from $3.33B to $5.44B and net income to $3.75B, lifting operating margin to 14.5% and net margin to 10.0%. That is real operating leverage in aggregates and ready-mix. Yet free cash flow only reached $2.91B against $5.63B of operating cash flow after $2.71B of capex, and FCF is contracting at a 4.6% CAGR even as earnings grow 8.7%. The market is capitalizing peak-cycle earnings power at 18.4x trailing earnings, 10.6x EV/EBITDA and 1.83x sales while net debt sits at roughly $13.6B. Seasonality is intact—Q1 losses are structural—but the latest March 2026 quarter showed revenue of $7.37B against a deeper $176M loss versus a $94M loss on $6.76B a year earlier, so incremental winter volume is not flowing through cleanly.

The valuation synthesis putting composite fair value near $81 versus the $101 print is directionally correct. At current levels the stock embeds a durable multi-year U.S. infrastructure premium on top of already-elevated construction pricing. ROIC of 10.9% and ROE of 14.7% are respectable for the sector, and the balance sheet (debt-to-equity 0.69, current ratio 1.74) is not stretched, but neither metric justifies paying mid-teens-plus multiples once residential and non-residential volumes normalize. The 5.3% recent revenue growth and 7.5% earnings growth look fine until you notice the decelerating quarterly revenue trend and the fact that cash conversion is deteriorating while management continues to run a heavy bolt-on M&A and capex program. Insider activity is noise—option exercises and small sales—not a signal. The market narrative of “fortress aggregates riding CHIPS/IRA” is real but already fully reflected; once that story loses intensity the multiple compresses toward the DCF anchor.

The strongest counter-argument is that CRH still screens cheap versus pure-play U.S. aggregates peers that trade at 22–25x earnings, that $2.91B of FCF and a 1.5% dividend provide a floor, and that pricing power in fragmented regional markets plus a proven capital-allocation record have historically de-risked the cycle. A bull would also note that operating margins have expanded for four straight years and that net leverage of roughly 2.5x operating profit leaves room to keep consolidating. I weigh those points as already in the price: the peer discount exists precisely because of European exposure and acquisition integration risk, and “cheap versus VMC” is not the same as cheap on absolute cash flows. Declining FCF CAGR while earnings rise is the tell that reported profits are running ahead of economic cash generation at this point in the cycle.

I would reverse to neutral or better only on clear evidence that FCF is re-accelerating above $3.5B while organic volumes hold through a softer residential print, or on a material multiple re-rating catalyst such as sustained 2026–27 guidance that keeps operating margins above 14% even as public infrastructure spend rolls off. A drop back through the high-$80s on no fundamental break would also force a revisit of the risk/reward.

Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Each AI above independently stated a direction (undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued) and how strongly it believes it (conviction, 0–5). We combine those into a Bull-Bear Index on a 0–10 scale: 5 is neutral, 10 is maximum bullish (undervalued at full conviction), 0 is maximum bearish. We compute the score ourselves with the same arithmetic for every seat — the models never grade their own bullishness — so the three are directly comparable. Δ shows how far each seat sits from the panel average of 1.3; a large Δ marks the dissenting voice, usually the one worth reading.
Claude claude-opus-4-7 2.0
overvalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +0.7 vs panel · self: 3.0
GPT gpt-5.4 1.0
overvalued · conviction 4/5 · Δ -0.3 vs panel · self: 4.0
Grok grok-4.5 1.0
overvalued · conviction 4/5 · Δ -0.3 vs panel · self: 3.0
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), plus AI Impact (how the AI wave reshapes it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-08-11 15:12:56
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality - wait for a dip into the low-$80s 7/10
CRH is a genuinely good compounder trading ~20% above deserved value at a cycle-friendly moment - a name to want, not to chase.
The cruxWhether you're willing to pay full freight for mid-cycle margins that the DCF and EPV both say are ~$25 above the cash-flow base.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from CRH's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionShare Count Shrinking
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The four lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+61
Strong
edge √Σ 131 · risk √Σ 60 · conf 8/10

Revenue has climbed every year from 29.2B in 2021 to 37.5B in 2025 (about 6.4% CAGR), with gross margin widening from 33.6% to 36.1% and operating margin expanding from 11.4% to 14.5%. That is genuine operating leverage in a cyclical, capital-heavy industry - net income grew from 2.63B to 3.75B and FCF ran 2.4-3.2B annually. Earnings quality looks clean: OCF/NI 1.4x, accruals -2.5% of assets, no mechanical red flags. Per-share value is actively concentrated, with diluted shares falling from 786.8M to 677.0M (a 3.7% annual shrink) and buybacks running roughly 13x SBC, so dilution discipline is exemplary. The main structural mark against the business is the balance sheet: net debt of about 13.6B against 4.1B liquid cash means the balance sheet is a constraint rather than a cushion, and Altman Z at 2.92 sits in the grey zone. However, at 2.9B FCF the debt is serviceable and there is no runway question. Insider tape is neutral - a single small sale plus routine option/award/withholding flow, nothing directional.

Strengths 4
m70
Steady margin expansion
OpM climbed from 11.4% (2021) to 14.5% (2025) and GM from 33.6% to 36.1% - unusual durability of pricing/mix in a cyclical materials business.
m75
Aggressive per-share concentration
Diluted shares fell from 786.8M to 677.0M, a -3.7% CAGR; buyback/SBC ratio of 1296% indicates real cash returns, not optical offsets.
m60
Clean earnings quality
OCF/NI 1.4x and accruals -2.5% of assets - cash consistently exceeds reported earnings, no accrual build.
m55
Consistent FCF generation
FCF between 2.28B and 3.20B every year 2021-2025; self-funding without needing capital markets.
Concerns 2
m55
Sizeable net debt load
Net debt of -13.56B vs 4.10B liquid cash; Altman Z 2.92 in the grey band. Manageable at 2.9B FCF but a real constraint on flexibility.
m25
Cyclical end-market exposure
Building materials demand tracks construction cycles; current margin peak may not be a run-rate through a downturn.
This looks like a well-run mature compounder doing the boring things right - margins up every year, share count down every year, cash flow consistently backing reported earnings. The only real blemish is a meaningful net debt position, but with roughly 2.9B of annual FCF it is a constraint rather than a threat. Insider tape is a non-event. Nothing here suggests accounting mischief or capital-allocation vandalism; it walks and talks like a solid B+ industrial. I would want to see the debt schedule and how much of the margin story is organic versus roll-up before going higher.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Debt maturity ladder and fixed vs floating mix behind the 13.6B net debt
  • Whether recent margin expansion is price/mix or M&A-driven (aggregates vs materials segment detail)
  • Acquisition cadence and goodwill/intangibles growth relative to organic growth
  • Pension and lease obligations not captured in net debt figure
  • Geographic mix - US vs Europe exposure given divergent construction cycles
Valuation / Mispricing
-65
Rich
edge √Σ 39 · risk √Σ 116 · conf 7/10
price $101 vs deserved ~$80, roughly 20% overpaid - a clear premium, not a screaming short attractive below $80.00

The composite fair value of $79.65 (signal-adjusted $81.23) implies roughly 20% downside from the $101.15 print. The two conservative methods cluster tightly and low: DCF at $55.11 and EPV floor at $54.50, both saying the cash-generating base of the business, without heroic growth, is worth about half the current price. Only the anchored P/E at $153.88 argues for upside, and that method essentially extrapolates recent multiple and earnings strength - a runaway input I discount heavily given CRH's cyclicality. Splitting the difference toward the cash-based methods, deserved value sits in the low-$80s even after crediting the strong quality grade and clean earnings.

Cheap signals 2
m30
Anchored P/E suggests $153
The P/E-anchored method flags $153.88, but this reflects recent earnings strength and peer multiples - a runaway signal for a cyclical, so I weight it lightly rather than ignore it.
m25
High earnings quality supports deserved value
Clean cash conversion (~$2.9B FCF), shrinking share count, and no accounting flags mean I do not haircut the numbers further - deserved value stays in the low-$80s, not lower.
Rich / priced-in 3
m70
Price ~25% above composite fair value
$101.15 vs $79.65 composite FV / $81.23 signal-adjusted means the market is paying up for continued U.S. infra tailwinds and pricing power - no margin of safety.
m75
DCF and EPV both near $55
Two independent conservative methods (DCF $55.11, EPV $54.50) agree the cash-flow base is worth ~$55; today's price requires the cycle to keep extending and bolt-on M&A to keep compounding.
m55
Cyclical exposure not discounted
Residential and commercial construction demand is at cycle-high levels; the price bakes in that mix holding, with no visible haircut for a downturn in a business with real operating leverage.
I like the business but I do not like the price. Two conservative cash-based methods put fair value near $55, the composite says ~$80, and I'm being asked to pay $101 - that is paying full freight for a cyclical at a cycle-friendly moment. Strong quality earns it a premium above the DCF, but not this much. I'd want it in the low-$80s before it's genuinely interesting; anywhere north of $95 I'm just chasing the narrative.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Forward guidance on U.S. infrastructure backlog conversion and pricing into 2025-2026
  • Residential/commercial vs infrastructure revenue mix trend
  • Net debt trajectory and M&A pace/multiples paid
  • Any evidence of volume rollover in key state DOT markets
General Sentiment
+31
Tailwind
tail √Σ 79 · head √Σ 47 · conf 6/10

CRH sits inside a moderately supportive tape: risk-on regime at +47, VIX at 15.5, and the S&P near highs. With a 1.2 beta this name gets a modest lift from the risk-on read, but it is not a high-octane story stock that levers into euphoria - the pressure it feels from the tape is real but ordinary. The active narrative (steady-compounder, moderate intensity, moderate durability) is quietly on the right side of the market's favorite 2026 theme: U.S. infrastructure spend, CHIPS/IRA project pipelines, and regional aggregates pricing power. That story is coherent, defensible, and being credited by the market.

Tailwinds 3
m45
Risk-on tape aligns with beta 1.2
A +47 risk-on regime with contained VIX gives CRH's above-market beta a modest, persistent bid. Not decisive, but a steady following breeze rather than a fight.
m55
Infrastructure narrative still the market's darling
CRH is a clean vehicle for the U.S. infra buildout story (CHIPS, IRA, state DOT spend). Moderate intensity and durability mean the story does the work quietly without needing a cult premium to sustain it.
m35
Adjacent read-through from URI outlook
United Rentals guiding to a $17.8B outlook signals ongoing large-project demand, which is directionally supportive for aggregates and ready-mix demand narrative around CRH.
Headwinds 2
m40
Rates and rich market multiple
10y at 4.65% and market PE 26 pressure cyclical building-materials names tied to residential and commercial construction. Not acute right now, but a persistent cap on multiple expansion.
m25
Neutral momentum, no tape thrust
3.5% CAGR and neutral momentum score mean there is no trend-follower flow pushing the name; it drifts with sector sentiment rather than leading it.
Net, this is a mild tailwind name. The tape is calm and risk-on, the infrastructure narrative is still the story the market wants to own, and there is no acute negative news flow pressing on CRH. The offsets - higher rates, a stretched market multiple, and neutral momentum with no trend thrust - keep this from being a Strong Tailwind. It is a name the market is quietly willing to hold, not one it is chasing.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Any softening in state DOT/IRA project awards that would crack the infrastructure story
  • Housing starts and non-res construction prints - a sharp downshift would re-price the cyclical premium
  • Analyst target revisions post next print - watch for tone diverging from the compounder narrative
  • Sector rotation out of materials into defensives if VIX pushes above 20
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
AI Impact
+52
Mildly favorable - physical scarcity, demand-side AI exposure
opp √Σ 114 · thr √Σ 0 · conf 7/10

CRH sells weight, proximity and compliance, not information: the monetised unit is tons and cubic yards delivered within a short haul radius, and no amount of cheap inference creates a new quarry, a new permit, or a truck that arrives before the concrete sets. AI therefore enters through four narrow channels — (1) demand, where AI-era buildout of data centers, transmission and fabs is unusually materials-heavy and lands in CRH's US core; (2) inputs, where AI-driven power demand inflates the energy bill for kilns and plants; (3) internal cost, where dispatch optimisation, predictive maintenance, autonomous haulage and kiln control can add real but slow-diffusing points of margin across thousands of decentralised locations; and (4) volume intensity, where AI structural optimisation reduces material per structure. Disruption risk to the product, the interface or the customer relationship is close to nil; the fragmented-market pricing power that has driven GM from 33.6% to 36.1% rests on geography and consolidation, not on information asymmetry AI can dissolve.

AI opportunities 8
m62
Underlying Need Persistence
Roads, foundations and structures need physical material regardless of intelligence costs.
m43
Solution Persistence
Concrete, asphalt and crushed stone remain the delivery form; substitution is slow and marginal.
m8
Intelligence Commoditization
Cheap AI is a tool CRH buys, not a competitor that copies it.
m60
Scarcity Migration
As software and analysis become abundant, permitted reserves near demand centers get relatively scarcer and more valuable.
m19
Customer DIY Preference
Contractors cannot self-supply tonnage; vertical backward integration is capital- and permit-bound.
m16
AI Margin Conversion
Real but slow-diffusing savings in dispatch, maintenance and kiln control, partly offset by AI-inflated energy costs.
m26
Revenue Unit Durability
Tons and cubic yards survive, but material per structure can be optimised down.
m48
Entrant Compression
Barriers are permits, reserves and plants — none of which cheap software compresses.
AI threats 0

None surfaced.

CRH is one of the few Basic Materials names where AI shows up as demand and input cost rather than disruption risk — own the permitted tonnage, not the software story. Exposure is modest (31) but the sign is favorable (position 63): scarcity_migration at 85 and entrant_compression at 86 say cheap intelligence makes permitted reserves near metro and power nodes relatively rarer, while ai_margin_conversion at 63 offers a slow, real gain from ready-mix dispatch and kiln optimisation on top of OpM that already moved 11.4%→14.5%. The kill switches are specific: Americas Materials margin giving back ground to electricity and fuel inflation, and volumes decoupling from headline construction spend as AI structural design trims concrete per structure. Watch energy cost per ton and any disclosure of data-center/power-infrastructure volume share — that pair resolves the 45-76 range before the cycle narrative does.
Verify before trusting this (8)
  • Reserve life and permitted tonnage disclosure
  • Aggregates price per ton growth
  • Greenfield permit denials in key states
  • US highway and state DOT funding levels
  • Data-center and power construction starts
  • Residential starts in CRH metros
  • Bolt-on acquisition multiples paid
  • New entrant permits granted
The structural effect of the AI wave on this specific business over the next ~5 years — demand, cost leverage, moat, barriers to entry, position in the AI stack. The reality beneath the AI story, not the story's market pressure (General Sentiment owns that) — and not a call on the business today or the price.
Growth Outlook
not run

This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.

The forward growth verdict — is the business itself likely to grow (next 2 quarters / year 1 / years 2–3), judged against its category and against printed expectations. The full horizon ladder + creme renders on the Growth Outlook card above. Not a call on the price (Valuation owns that) or the tape (Sentiment owns that).
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Lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure), AI Impact (structural ~5yr AI exposure), and Growth Outlook (the forward growth verdict). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Price Prediction
Unavailable View weakness chain →

Prediction unavailable. valuation-synthesis has no result for CRH — the prediction needs its fair-value anchors.

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My Notes personal — only you see this
v1.1.562 · 9b2927c4 · 2026-08-22 16:52:06