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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Cintas Corporation (CTAS) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Watch · Gem Score +0 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 86 · Value -70 · Sentiment 24 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $86.66 vs $200.70 at analysis
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Cintas Corporation
CTAS NASDAQCintas Corporation is a business services company that provides uniforms, workwear, and workplace support solutions for organizations across many industries. Its core offerings include uniform rental and sales, facility services such as mats, mops, restroom supplies, and cleaning products, as well as first aid and safety services and fire protection products. Cintas serves customers ranging from small businesses to large enterprises, helping them maintain professional appearances, cleaner facilities, and safer work environments. The company’s services are organized around major segments that focus on uniform rental and facility support, first aid and safety, and related fire protection and direct-sale offerings. Cintas Corporation plays an important role in the business-to-business services market by supplying recurring, operationally essential products and services used in everyday workplace management.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 4.40
Total Equity: $4.68B
Shares: 410,286,000
Total Debt: $2.42B
Cash: $263.97M
EBITDA: $2.85B
Total Debt: $2.42B
Cash: $263.97M
Revenue: $10.34B
Revenue: $10.34B
Revenue: $10.34B
Total Equity: $4.68B
Tax Rate: 20.0%
Equity: $4.68B
Total Debt: $2.42B
Cash: $263.97M
Current Liabilities: $1.64B
Long-Term Debt: $2.42B
Total Debt: $2.42B
Total Equity: $4.68B
Shares: 410,286,000
Shares: 410,286,000
CapEx: -$408.88M
Shares: 410,286,000
Stock Price: $204.50
Net Income: $1.81B
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 12, 2026 9:47pm (10d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.1B | $7.9B | $8.8B | $9.6B | $10.3B |
| Cost of Revenue | $3.8B | $4.2B | $4.6B | $4.9B | $5.2B |
| Gross Profit | $3.3B | $3.6B | $4.2B | $4.7B | $5.2B |
| Operating Expenses | $1.9B | $2.0B | $2.4B | $2.6B | $2.8B |
| Operating Income | $1.4B | $1.6B | $1.8B | $2.1B | $2.4B |
| Net Income | $1.1B | $1.2B | $1.3B | $1.6B | $1.8B |
| EBITDA | $1.8B | $2.0B | $2.2B | $2.5B | $2.9B |
| EPS | $10.52 | $11.92 | $13.21 | $15.40 | $4.48 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $10.24 | $11.65 | $12.99 | $15.15 | $4.40 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 13, 2026 9:31am (10d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $493.6M | $90.5M | $124.1M | $342.0M | $264.0M |
| Total Current Assets | $2.8B | $2.6B | $2.9B | $3.2B | $3.4B |
| Total Assets | $8.2B | $8.1B | $8.5B | $9.2B | $9.8B |
| Current Liabilities | $1.9B | $1.4B | $1.2B | $1.8B | $1.6B |
| Long-Term Debt | $1.6B | $2.5B | $2.5B | $2.0B | $2.4B |
| Total Liabilities | $4.5B | $4.8B | $4.7B | $4.9B | $5.1B |
| Total Equity | $3.7B | $3.3B | $3.9B | $4.3B | $4.7B |
| Retained Earnings | $7.9B | $8.7B | $9.6B | $10.6B | $11.8B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 12, 2026 9:47pm (10d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $1.4B | $1.5B | $1.6B | $2.1B | $2.2B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$143.5M | -$240.7M | -$331.1M | -$409.5M | -$408.9M |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.2B | $1.3B | $1.3B | $1.7B | $1.8B |
| Acquisitions (net) | -$10.0M | -$164.2M | -$46.4M | -$186.8M | -$232.9M |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | $0 | -$9.5M | -$50.0M | -$13.5M | -$51.9M |
| Dividends Paid | -$451.3M | -$375.1M | -$449.9M | -$530.9M | -$611.6M |
| Stock Buybacks | -$554.1M | -$1.5B | -$398.9M | -$700.0M | -$934.8M |
| Net Change in Cash | $348.2M | -$403.2M | $33.7M | $217.9M | -$78.0M |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 12, 2026 9:47pm (10d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +10.4% | +12.2% | +8.9% | +7.7% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +9.6% | +14.9% | +12.3% | +10.4% |
| Operating Income Growth | +14.6% | +13.6% | +14.8% | +14.1% |
| Net Income Growth | +11.2% | +9.1% | +16.6% | +15.3% |
| EBITDA Growth | +12.0% | +11.3% | +13.5% | +13.7% |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 13, 2026 9:32am (10d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | $0.52 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-15 | $0.45 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-13 | $0.45 | — | — | — |
| 2025-11-14 | $0.45 | — | — | — |
| 2025-08-15 | $0.45 | — | — | — |
| 2025-05-15 | $0.39 | — | — | — |
| 2025-02-14 | $0.39 | — | — | — |
| 2024-11-15 | $0.39 | — | — | — |
| 2024-08-15 | $0.39 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-14 | $0.34 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-14 | $0.34 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-14 | $0.34 | — | — | — |
| 2023-08-14 | $0.34 | — | — | — |
| 2023-05-12 | $0.29 | — | — | — |
| 2023-02-14 | $0.29 | — | — | — |
| 2022-11-14 | $0.29 | — | — | — |
| 2022-08-12 | $0.29 | — | — | — |
| 2022-05-13 | $0.24 | — | — | — |
| 2022-02-14 | $0.24 | — | — | — |
| 2021-11-12 | $0.24 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Risk : Reward — if the last quarter repeats
Live · as of 2026-08-23 02:41Even the bull case prices 61% below today — the ratio here measures the model-vs-market gap, not payoff odds. Another quarter like the worst recent one costs 71%.
| Case | Growth | Margin | Fair value | vs price ($200.70) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull — recovery | +13% | 20.2% | $77.28 | -61% |
| Base — stabilizes | +9% | 17.6% | $59.55 | -70% |
| Bear — keeps slipping | +4% | 14.9% | $45.01 | -78% |
| Stress — last quarter repeats | +8% | 17.8% | $58.74 | -71% |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
AI Lens 4th lens · how AI reaches this business · 5-yr
2026-08-14AI applied to route sequencing, garment loss/replacement forecasting, and micro-segmented price/renewal decisions across roughly a million customer locations converts directly into incremental margin on an already-fixed truck-and-plant cost base.
AI-assisted procurement on the customer side makes Cintas's annual escalators and per-garment charges legible and benchmarkable, which is the one credible path to compressing the price component of organic growth that the model depends on.
AI Lens thesis
What the market may be underestimating
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Outcome range spread 31
Claude Reading
Looking at the raw quarterly tape first: revenue has marched from $2.47B (May-24) to $2.84B (Feb-26) — that's ~15% over seven quarters, or roughly 8% annualized, with YoY in the most recent quarter running 8.8% ($2.84B vs $2.61B). Net income growth is running hotter: $502M vs $463M = 8.4% YoY, but the two-year stack shows earnings compounding faster than revenue as margins have crept from ~16.8% to 17.7-18.1%. FCF conversion is genuinely elite — $1.76B FCF on $1.81B NI is ~97%, and capex intensity is only ~4% of revenue. ROIC of 27.6% on modest leverage (D/E 0.52, net debt ~$2.15B against $2.36B operating income = ~0.9x) is the real story: this is a compounder that doesn't need much capital to grow. That said, the quarterly deceleration is real — YoY revenue growth was ~9% a year ago and is now 8-9%, not accelerating despite the "secular tailwinds" narrative.
Where I part company with the synthesis: the $86-89 DCF fair value implies CTAS should trade at roughly 20x earnings, which is what a 3-4% grower deserves. But CTAS is demonstrably a 7-8% top-line, 15%+ bottom-line grower with 28% ROIC and near-perpetual pricing power in a business where customers rarely switch. That profile historically clears at 30-35x, not 20x. The synthesis model's $89 anchor looks like it's punishing CTAS for being expensive by assuming mean-reversion to a growth rate the company hasn't actually shown. At 46x forward earnings and 29x EV/EBITDA the stock IS expensive — I don't dispute overvalued — but "fair value is $86" (a 58% drawdown) is a number that would require CTAS to structurally break, and nothing in this data suggests that. A more defensible fair value using a 28-32x multiple on ~$7 forward EPS is $195-225, i.e., roughly where it trades.
The contrarian case that actually worries me isn't the DCF; it's three things the models underweight. First, quarterly growth is decelerating precisely when the multiple demands acceleration — 8.8% YoY is fine, but at 46x P/E the market is priced for reacceleration or continued margin creep, and margins at 17.7% may be near a structural ceiling for a rental/services business. Second, insider activity is quietly bearish: every discretionary transaction in the shown window is a sale (option exercises immediately dumped, no open-market buys), which is normal for executives at richly-valued shares but not a vote of confidence at these levels. Third, the market-forces "macro headwinds" flag matters more than it appears — CTAS's customers are SMB and mid-market employers whose headcount is the direct driver of uniform rentals; if employment softens, organic growth compresses to 3-4% and the multiple has nowhere to hide. The narrative layer's observation that ~55% of the premium is story-driven is directionally right but the story has been validated over 20+ years, so it won't crack on one soft quarter.
Net verdict: I partially agree with the "overvalued" synthesis but strongly dissent from the magnitude. This is a genuinely elite business — 28% ROIC, 97% FCF conversion, decade of compounding — that deserves a premium, just not this premium. Fair value in my read is $165-185 (26-29x forward earnings, a meaningful but not punitive discount to today), implying 10-20% downside rather than the 55% the synthesis flags. The setup is asymmetric on the wrong side: limited upside from here without multiple expansion beyond 46x (unlikely), and material downside if growth slips below 7% or if margins stall at 18%. I would not short — quality compounders punish shorts — but I wouldn't be a buyer above $180, and existing holders should be trimming into strength. The models are directionally correct that this is expensive; they are quantitatively wrong that fair value is anywhere near $89.
GPT Reading
What jumps out is not the quality debate — Cintas is plainly excellent — but the size of the premium investors are paying for excellence in a business that is still, underneath the polish, a steady service operator rather than a true hyper-growth compounder. Revenue has risen from $7.12B in 2021 to $10.34B in 2025, an 8.3% CAGR, while net income climbed from $1.11B to $1.81B, about 16% annually, driven by both growth and margin lift. That is real operating leverage: gross margin moved to 50.0%, operating margin to 22.8%, and net margin to 17.5% in 2025. The quarterly run-rate remains strong, with the last four quarters totaling roughly $10.99B of revenue and $1.94B of net income, and the latest quarter at $2.84B and $502.5M implies another 7-8% top-line gain and high-teens earnings growth. But at $204.5, the stock is capitalized at $81.4B, which means investors are paying roughly 42x trailing run-rate earnings, about 7.4x current annualized sales, and around 46x the last reported annual EPS base implied by the given P/E. For a company growing revenue high single digits and earnings mid-teens from already-elevated margins, that is a heroic multiple.
The underlying business deserves a premium, just not this premium. Free cash flow of $1.76B on $10.34B of revenue is excellent, and ROIC at 27.6% is the clearest sign this is a genuinely advantaged operator, not a low-quality rollup. Debt is manageable at $2.42B against $2.17B of operating cash flow, though cash is only $264M, so this is not a fortress balance sheet in the sense of excess liquidity. What matters more is that the margin story looks closer to mature optimization than early innings. Net margins have been remarkably consistent quarter to quarter, mostly between 16.8% and 18.1%, which is admirable but also suggests the easy gains have largely been harvested. If I annualize the last two quarters, I get about $2.0B of earnings power. A fair premium multiple for this kind of durability might be 28-32x, which would support roughly $56B-$64B of equity value, or something like $140-$160 per share. To justify $204.5, I think you need either sustained low-double-digit revenue growth for years or another meaningful leg of margin expansion from already-elite levels; the reported numbers do not show that.
The strongest argument against this view is that Cintas has earned the right to trade unlike a normal industrial services company because its business mix behaves more like a subscription utility with pricing power. The revenue line is unusually dependable, the cash conversion is strong, returns on capital are outstanding, and earnings have compounded much faster than sales for years. If the business can keep growing revenue 7-8%, hold operating margins above 22%, and use free cash flow plus buybacks to produce 12-15% EPS growth, then 40x earnings is not automatically absurd in a market starved for resilient compounders. The recent quarterly data actually support that defense: revenue went from $2.47B to $2.84B over eight quarters, while quarterly net income moved from $414M to $503M, and there is no sign of margin collapse. Even the insider activity shown is mostly option exercises and related sales, not a broad rush for the exits. A smart bull would say the “mature business” label is misleading because mature businesses usually do not post 27% ROIC and near-18% net margins at this scale.
I still weigh that argument less heavily because valuation is now assuming the next five years look almost as good as the last five, despite a larger base and less room for margin upside. Price-to-book at 17.9x is not useful by itself for an asset-light compounder, but EV/EBITDA near 29x and price/sales above 8x are hard to wave away for a route-based business with macro exposure. The current ratio of 2.09 and debt/equity of 0.52 are fine, not magical; the dividend yield is just 0.9%, so investors are not being paid to wait if growth cools. If revenue decelerates from 7.8% toward 5-6% while margins merely hold flat, the stock has substantial multiple-compression risk even if the business keeps executing. That is the key disconnect: the company looks superb, but the stock already prices in superb execution as a permanent condition.
What would change my mind is simple. If the next few quarters show revenue accelerating back above 9-10% while net margin pushes sustainably above 18% and free cash flow clears $2.0B annually without balance-sheet strain, then I would accept that my framework is underestimating the compounding runway and move my fair value higher. Conversely, if organic growth slips into the mid-single digits or operating margin stalls around 22-23%, I would expect the market eventually to re-rate this toward a high-20s or low-30s earnings multiple. At today’s price, the burden of proof is on continued near-flawless execution.
Grok Reading
Cintas is an operationally excellent business being priced like a high-growth software compounder. Revenue has marched from $7.12B in FY2021 to $10.34B in FY2025 at an 8.3% CAGR, while net income compounded at 16% to $1.81B and free cash flow at 17.8% to $1.76B — the classic signature of a mature earner with pricing power, operating leverage, and aggressive capital return. Quarterly run-rate is still intact: the February 2026 quarter delivered $2.84B revenue and $502.5M net income at a 17.7% margin, continuing a multi-year pattern of mid-to-high single-digit top-line growth and rock-steady mid-to-high teens net margins. ROE of 38.7% and ROIC of 27.6% on a clean balance sheet (debt-to-equity 0.52, current ratio 2.09) confirm genuine economic moat quality. None of that is in dispute.
What the numbers also say, without apology, is that the market has already paid for a decade of perfection. At $204.5 the stock trades at 46.5× earnings, 8.1× sales, and 29.3× EV/EBITDA, producing a free-cash-flow yield of roughly 2.2% on the latest $1.76B FCF. That is a valuation that only works if mid-single-digit organic growth, continued 50–100 bps of annual margin expansion, and multiple stability all persist simultaneously. Recent revenue growth is already decelerating (secondary signal flags it explicitly; the YoY print is 7.8%), and net margins have been range-bound between 16.8% and 18.1% rather than structurally expanding. The prior model’s DCF anchor near $89 is aggressive on the downside, but even a more generous 25–28× multiple on forward earnings power lands fair value well below $140. The 55%+ premium to cash-flow fundamentals is almost entirely narrative: the “steady compounder with buyback turbocharge” story is durable among quality allocators, yet it is carrying more than half the current price.
The strongest case against this read is straightforward and deserves weight. Earnings have grown at 15%+ for years while revenue grew half as fast, proving the capital-light, buyback-amplified model works in practice. Gross margins sit at 50% and operating margins at 22.8%; if Cintas can keep taking price in a fragmented uniform-rental market and bolt on small M&A, a 12–14% EPS CAGR for another five years is plausible. At that trajectory, today’s $81B market cap could be supported by ~$3.2B of FY2030 net income even after moderate multiple compression, and patient holders who treat CTAS as a bond proxy with upside might still compound in the high single digits including the 0.9% dividend. Insiders are not dumping in size (activity is mostly option-related), FCF conversion remains pristine, and the business has historically shrugged off mild recessions. A smart opponent would argue that paying 46× for 15% earnings growth with fortress returns on capital is how quality compounds are bought, not sold.
That argument fails for me on arithmetic and opportunity cost. Sustaining a mid-40s multiple requires either re-acceleration that the decelerating quarterly trend does not support, or permanent acceptance of a 2% FCF yield in a world where capital has a cost again. I would flip toward fair or undervalued only if organic revenue growth re-accelerates sustainably above 10%, net margins clear and hold 19%+, or the stock corrects into the $120–140 zone where the FCF yield and PEG begin to compensate for maturity. A sharp slowdown below 5% revenue growth or a credit-driven halt to the buyback engine would confirm the overvaluation more violently.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Revenue has compounded from $7.12B (2021) to $10.34B (2025), roughly 9-10% per year, while gross margin has expanded every single year from 46.6% to 50.0% and operating margin from 19.5% to 22.8%. Net income has grown from $1.11B to $1.81B and FCF from $1.22B to $1.76B, with OCF/NI of 1.23x and negative accruals (-3.8% of assets) - hallmarks of clean, cash-backed earnings. Beneish M at -2.54 and Altman Z at 13.25 signal no manipulation flags and deep solvency. The dilution module's 39.7% diluted share CAGR is a mechanical artifact of the 4-for-1 stock split (103.4M to 410.3M shares in 2025); on a split-adjusted basis the share count has actually drifted DOWN from ~430M-equivalent in 2021 to 410M in 2025, and buyback/SBC of 721% confirms aggressive net repurchases. SBC is a modest 1.2% of revenue. Net debt of ~$2.16B against $1.76B annual FCF is roughly 1.2x FCF - trivial leverage for a business of this cash-generative quality. Insider tape shows only routine option-exercise-and-sell behavior by directors (Tysoe, Barstad) plus small awards; no open-market buys but nothing suggesting distress or aggressive dumping either. This is a mature, dominant uniform/facility-services franchise executing at the top of its class.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Confirm the 4-for-1 stock split in FY2025 fully explains the diluted-share jump from 103.4M to 410.3M
- Customer concentration and contract renewal rates in the 10-K
- Debt maturity schedule and covenant terms against the $2.16B net debt position
- Organic vs. acquired revenue mix behind the 9-10% growth
- Pension and lease obligations that could sit off the headline debt figure
The composite fair value sits at $86.46 and the signal-adjusted at $89.08, implying about 56% downside from $200.70. The anchored PE method ($161) is the most generous and still leaves 20% downside; the DCF ($70.59) and EPV floor ($43.65) suggest the market is capitalizing a lot of future price hikes and M&A that have not happened yet. Even if you accept that the models understate a Fortress-grade compounder (high-quality earnings, expanding margins, $1.76B FCF, Altman Z 13.25), a fair 'quality tax' of 25-35% on top of the anchored PE gets you to roughly $200-$215, essentially today's price. That is the bull case, not a margin of safety.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Organic revenue growth ex-M&A and ex-price in latest 10-Q
- Pricing vs volume split in uniform rental segment
- Incremental margin trajectory and whether route density gains are sustaining
- M&A pipeline and multiples paid for tuck-ins
- Buyback pace vs SBC dilution on a split-adjusted basis
The macro backdrop is mildly supportive: VIX at 14.6, S&P at highs, a 9-day established risk-on regime. But CTAS has a beta of 0.92 and sits in specialty business services, so the risk-on juice barely touches it - this name does not rip on animal spirits. What actually presses on the tape here is the narrative: a strong, durable steady-compounder story with medium cult status. That archetype attracts sticky, quality-factor money that rarely leaves, and the multi-year momentum (8.3% CAGR, deleveraging) keeps validating the story - a self-reinforcing sentiment tailwind. The offsetting pressure is that at $201 vs a DCF anchor near $89, the narrative is stretched, and any crack in the compounder story (a price-hike miss, a customer insourcing headline) would hit disproportionately because sentiment is what supports the premium, not fundamentals. Higher rates (10y 4.68%) and a 26x market PE are a low-grade drag on any high-multiple compounder, but this is background noise, not an active press. News flow is quiet - one mildly cautious Nasdaq 100 mention, nothing narrative-breaking. Net: a modest tailwind - the tape is calm, the story is intact and self-reinforcing, but the intensity is muted by low beta and the always-present valuation overhang.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Any price-hike traction miss or customer insourcing news that cracks the compounder story
- Rotation out of quality/defensive industrials into higher-beta cyclicals if risk-on intensifies
- Sell-side target revisions - a downgrade citing valuation would matter more than usual given the premium
- VIX spike or curve re-inversion that would flip macro sensitivity for high-multiple names
None surfaced.
Verify before trusting this (8)
- route density gains from M&A
- plant capacity utilization
- cost per stop trend
- revenue per stop trend
- wearer count sensitivity to layoffs
- contract escalator realization
- SG&A as percent of revenue
- incremental operating margin per quarter
This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.
When we made this prediction on Aug 14, 2026, CTAS was $200.70. We expect it to be $185.50 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $165.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 14, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.