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AGING Analysis Report
Aug 11, 2026
12 days ago · 100% complete
These price targets were computed from last year's numbers — and this year is going noticeably worse. Projection assumes +3.5% growth but recent quarters show operating income -30.7% YoY (through 2026-06-30) — annual-baselined fair values are likely stale-high. Until the statements catch up, read the growth-based fair values (DCF, anchored) as a best case, not a target; the EPV floor (worth with zero growth assumed) and the current market price are the trustworthy numbers right now.
NOT DEPENDABLE This report predates a filing — its financial basis has been replaced.
Report generated: Aug 11, 2026 · Filing on record since: Aug 22, 2026 · 11 days after
For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page

What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Elevance Health, Inc. (ELV) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.

Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Low · Gem Score -23 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality -27 · Value -20 · Sentiment -16 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $443.57 vs $397.70 at analysis

Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable reference-name attribute you can cite):

  • profile-header / price-overview — company profile, live quote, market cap
  • extended-analysisthe core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memo
  • future-predictions — our forward price-band predictions
  • market-narrative / ai-findings / gpt-critique — narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)
  • Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers): price-history, income-trend, key-metrics, financials (statement tables), insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.

More for machine readers: site briefing at /llms.txt · any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER · raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds); every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.

Elevance Health, Inc.

ELV NYSE
Healthcare · Healthcare Plans
Indianapolis, IN 46204, United States elevancehealth.com Updated Aug 11, 12:02am
Price
$397.70
Market Cap
$86.2B
Employees
96,129
Beta
0.69
Avg Volume
1,428,632
Last Dividend
$6.86
CEO
Ms. Gail Koziara Boudreaux

Elevance Health, Inc. is a diversified health company headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana. The company focuses on supporting health at every life stage by integrating medical, pharmacy, behavioral, and complex-care services. Elevance Health operates through several key segments. Its Health Benefits segment provides a broad range of commercial, Medicaid, Medicare, and specialty health plans to individuals, employers, and government programs. Through CarelonRx, it offers pharmacy benefit management solutions, including prescription management and related pharmacy services. Carelon Services delivers care management, analytics, and other clinical and administrative services aimed at coordinating and improving care quality. Together, these businesses enable Elevance Health to serve as a major player in the U.S. healthcare system, connecting health plans, care providers, and consumers to streamline access to care and support better health outcomes across diverse populations.

Runs with full report Generated: Aug 11, 2026 12:22am
Price Overview
Price at report time
$397.70
as of Aug 11, 12:42am (12d ago)
Change · Aug 11
+3.50 (+0.89%)
Day Range
$395.02 – $400.93
52-Week Range
$274.84 – $436.24
50-Day MA
$396.27
200-Day MA
$352.32
Volume
458,794.00
Right now · live
Log in to get the live feed
Members see the real-time price and the move since this report (over 12d).
Share Structure
Outstanding 216,841,146.00
Float 213,351,670.00
Free Float 98.4%
High free float — 98.4% of shares trade freely, ~1.6% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Aug 11, 2026 12:49am (12d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Aug 7, 2026 4:43am (16d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
TD Twelve Data statement HEX SEC filing
Industry comparison last run: Aug 11, 2026 12:12am
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
HEX
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
15.78
Stock Price: $397.70
EPS (Diluted): 25.21
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
HEX
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
2.03
Stock Price: $397.70
Total Equity: $44.03B
Shares: 224,600,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
HEX
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
14.91
Market Cap: $86.25B
Total Debt: $31.90B
Cash: $9.49B
EBITDA: $7.29B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
HEX
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$108.7B
Market Cap: $86.25B
Total Debt: $31.90B
Cash: $9.49B
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
HEX
Gross Profit / Revenue
89.4%
Gross Profit: $177.95B
Revenue: $199.13B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
HEX
Operating Income / Revenue
3.6%
Operating Income: $7.20B
Revenue: $199.13B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
HEX
Net Income / Revenue
2.8%
Net Income: $5.66B
Revenue: $199.13B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
HEX
Net Income / Total Equity
12.9%
Net Income: $5.66B
Total Equity: $44.03B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
HEX
NOPAT / Invested Capital
9.1%
Operating Income: $7.20B
Tax Rate: 15.6%
Equity: $44.03B
Total Debt: $31.90B
Cash: $9.49B
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
HEX
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
1.54
Current Assets: $63.00B
Current Liabilities: $41.04B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
HEX
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.72
Short-Term Debt: $1.10B
Long-Term Debt: $30.80B
Total Debt: $31.90B
Total Equity: $44.03B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
HEX
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$886.58
Revenue: $199.13B
Shares: 224,600,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
HEX
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$196.02
Total Equity: $44.03B
Shares: 224,600,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
HEX
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$14.13
Operating CF: $4.29B
CapEx: -$1.12B
Shares: 224,600,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
TD
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
1.7%
Last Dividend: $6.86
Stock Price: $397.70
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
HEX
Dividends Paid / Net Income
27.0%
Dividends Paid: -$1.53B
Net Income: $5.66B
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Aug 11, 2026 12:12am
Compares ELV against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 7, 2026 4:43am (16d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $138.6B $156.6B $171.3B $177.0B $199.1B
Cost of Revenue $10.9B $13.0B $17.3B $19.8B $21.2B
Gross Profit $127.7B $143.6B $154.0B $157.3B $177.9B
Operating Expenses $120.3B $135.1B $145.5B $149.4B $170.7B
Operating Income $7.5B $8.5B $8.5B $7.9B $7.2B
Net Income $6.1B $6.0B $6.0B $6.0B $5.7B
EBITDA $7.6B $8.6B $8.6B $8.0B $7.3B
EPS $25.04 $25.10 $25.38 $25.81 $25.28
EPS (Diluted) $24.73 $24.81 $25.22 $25.68 $25.21
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 7, 2026 12:05am (16d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $4.9B $7.4B $6.5B $8.3B $9.5B
Total Current Assets $51.1B $55.6B $60.0B $58.9B $63.0B
Total Assets $97.5B $102.8B $108.9B $116.9B $121.5B
Current Liabilities $34.9B $39.7B $41.8B $40.6B $41.0B
Long-Term Debt $21.2B $22.3B $23.2B $29.2B $30.8B
Total Liabilities $61.3B $66.4B $69.5B $75.5B $77.5B
Total Equity $36.1B $36.4B $39.4B $41.4B $44.0B
Retained Earnings $27.1B $29.7B $31.7B $33.5B $35.4B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 7, 2026 4:43am (16d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $8.4B $8.4B $8.1B $5.8B $4.3B
Capital Expenditure -$1.1B -$1.2B -$1.3B -$1.3B -$1.1B
Free Cash Flow $7.3B $7.2B $6.8B $4.6B $3.2B
Acquisitions (net) -$3.5B -$649.0M -$1.6B -$4.8B $88.0M
Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) $3.7B $2.5B $890.0M $6.3B $2.3B
Dividends Paid -$1.1B -$1.2B -$1.4B -$1.5B -$1.5B
Stock Buybacks -$1.9B -$2.3B -$2.7B -$2.9B -$2.6B
Net Change in Cash -$861.0M $2.5B -$861.0M $1.8B $1.2B
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 7, 2026 4:43am (16d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +13.0% +9.4% +3.3% +12.5%
Gross Profit Growth +12.4% +7.3% +2.1% +13.2%
Operating Income Growth +12.9% +0.6% -7.5% -8.4%
Net Income Growth -1.3% -0.6% -0.1% -5.3%
EBITDA Growth +12.5% +0.4% -7.4% -8.5%
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 7, 2026 12:05am (16d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-06-10 $1.72
2026-03-10 $1.72
2025-12-05 $1.71
2025-09-10 $1.71
2025-06-10 $1.71
2025-03-10 $1.71
2024-12-05 $1.63
2024-09-10 $1.63
2024-06-10 $1.63
2024-03-07 $1.63
2023-12-05 $1.48
2023-09-07 $1.48
2023-06-08 $1.48
2023-03-09 $1.48
2022-12-02 $1.28
2022-09-08 $1.28
2022-06-09 $1.28
2022-03-09 $1.28
2021-12-02 $1.13
2021-09-09 $1.13
0Company Classification 1Industry Landscape 2Company Momentum 3Forward Projection 4aDCF Valuation 4bEarnings Power Value 4cAnchored PE 4dReverse DCF 4eRevenue-Based DCF 4fAnchored P/S 4gScenario Analysis 4hDividend Discount Model 4iBook Value Analysis 4jInsider Activity 4fCash Flow Quality 4gDebt Maturity Risk 4hMacro Environment 4iSector Intelligence 4jRevenue Confidence 4kSensitivity Analysis 4lSector Demand Cycle 5AI Investigation 5bThesis Evaluation 6Valuation Synthesis
computed not applicable 18 computed · 6 not applicable
Risk : Reward — if the last quarter repeats
Live · as of 2026-08-19 08:50
3.0 : 1 recovery upside vs repeat-quarter downside
Recovery pays +160%; another quarter like the worst recent one costs 53%. Ratio 3.0:1.
CaseGrowthMarginFair valuevs price ($397.70)
Bull — recovery +5% 9.2% $1,035.53 +160%
Base — stabilizes +3% 8.0% $852.80 +114%
Bear — keeps slipping +2% 6.8% $687.27 +73%
Stress — last quarter repeats +3% 1.6% $186.52 -53%
The next quarters keep the trajectory of the worst recent matched quarter (ending 2026-03-31) — growth stays at 2.6% and margins bend by the same profit-vs-revenue ratio (×0.64). Stress is a trajectory, not a prediction — it answers "what if the ship's current heading simply continues," which history says is the case to respect.
Why this is appearing: this company files quarterly, so its recent trajectory could be measured rather than assumed — the engine matched Jun 2026, Mar 2026 against the same quarters one year earlier and found revenue +2.0% · operating income -31.2% · net income -17.8% year-over-year. That measured heading is what the stress case extends forward. Of those, the stress case extends the worst matched quarter — the one ending Mar 31, 2026 (revenue +2.6%, operating income -34.2% YoY) — not the average. Data measured through Jun 30, 2026 — this card recalculates automatically when the next quarterly filing is ingested. Companies without quarterly filings (many foreign listings) never show this card: with no measured trajectory, there is nothing honest to repeat.
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for ELV — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
AI Lens 4th lens · how AI reaches this business · 5-yr
2026-08-11
The creme is there an opportunity here? Conditional opportunity
AI here is an SG&A story, not a growth story - the payoff exists but only shows up if admin savings outrun the provider-side billing automation coming at Elevance from the other direction.
The clean asymmetry: MLR rules rebate medical savings but let administrative savings fall to pretax, so roughly a point of admin ratio on 199B of revenue is about 2B against 5.66B of net income - a real lever on a business whose operating margin has fallen from 5.4 to 3.6 percent. What kills it is symmetry: hospitals deploying AI coding and automated appeals raise paid claims faster than payers can automate review, and regulators are simultaneously fencing off algorithmic denials. Watch the spread between operating expense ratio improvement and benefit expense ratio drift in the same quarter; that single divergence resolves whether AI is 300bp of latent margin or a treadmill.
57
AI Position
Mildly favorable - real admin lever, but not the binding constraint
Cheap intelligence attacks Elevance's administrative cost base, which is the one place savings legally stay with the insurer, but it barely touches the medical cost trend and rate adequacy that are actually compressing operating margin from 5.4 percent to 3.6 percent.
Exposure 48 Confidence 68 50 = neutral
Primary Tailwind

Administrative expense is the largest AI-addressable line in a company running roughly 199B of revenue, and because MLR rules govern medical spend rather than SG&A, automation of claims adjudication, prior authorization, appeals handling, call centers and Carelon service delivery drops to pretax income rather than being rebated. Roughly one point of admin ratio is about 2B pretax against 5.66B of net income.

Primary Pressure

The counterparty gets the same tools: hospital systems and revenue-cycle vendors are deploying AI coding, documentation and automated appeal generation, which raises billed acuity and overturn rates faster than payers can automate review, and regulators are simultaneously restricting algorithmic coverage denials in Medicare Advantage.

Critical Hinge

Whether Elevance's SG&A ratio falls faster than provider AI-driven billing intensity raises the benefit expense ratio. It shows up in the spread between reported operating expense ratio improvement and benefit expense ratio drift in the same quarters.

Hard to Reproduce

Blue Cross Blue Shield trademark licenses across 14 states, contracted provider rate schedules built over decades, statutory capital and state licensure, CMS star ratings and Medicaid contract incumbency - none of which cheap software reproduces.

Forensic fingerprint same 11 factors for every stock · 0 unfavorable · 50 neutral · 100 favorable
Underlying Need Persistence do people still need this at all? 93
Risk pooling and payment for care survives any level of machine intelligence.
Someone must hold actuarial risk, prefund care, and adjudicate what gets paid; cheap intelligence changes who does the clerical work, not whether the financing function exists.
Medicaid and MA enrollment trajectory · Employer shift to self-funded ASO · Any single-payer legislative momentum
relevance 70 · confidence 90
Solution Persistence will they still solve it this way? 74
The managed care intermediary form persists; its threats are political and clinical, not algorithmic.
AI does not offer a substitute for a licensed, capitalized risk bearer with contracted network rates; the credible attacks on this business model come from rate-setting regulators and vertically integrated provider-payers.
State Medicaid rate adequacy actions · Provider-sponsored plan share gains · MA benchmark and risk model changes
relevance 72 · confidence 72
Intelligence Commoditization does cheap AI power them or copy them? 61
Cheap AI powers Elevance's back office but arms every counterparty equally, yielding little relative edge.
Claims automation, fraud detection and utilization review all get cheaper for Elevance, but identical capability reaches Centene, UnitedHealth, and every hospital revenue-cycle department in the same window.
Peer admin ratio convergence · Third-party payer AI vendor adoption · Provider RCM automation announcements
relevance 65 · confidence 66
Responsibility Transfer are they paid to take the blame? 85
Elevance is paid to own actuarial, regulatory and coverage-decision liability that no model will absorb.
Employers and states buy the transfer of risk, state licensure, MLR compliance and appeals defensibility; that shield is what survives cheap software, though it also means AI cannot be pointed at denial decisions without regulatory and litigation exposure.
CMS rules on algorithmic denials · AI-denial litigation against peers · Appeals overturn rate disclosures
relevance 80 · confidence 78
Scarcity Migration do their assets get rarer or more common? 73
As software goes to zero, licenses, network rates and statutory capital become the relatively scarcer assets.
Blue Cross trademark rights in 14 states, decades of negotiated provider rate schedules, and regulatory capital cannot be synthesized by any model, so their relative weight in the value stack rises as the technology layer commoditizes.
Contracted rate spread versus peers · Blue licensing or antitrust rulings · Statutory capital and RBC headroom
relevance 75 · confidence 72
Customer DIY Preference will customers just build it themselves? 78
Employers already DIY the risk; what they buy is the network discount, which AI cannot manufacture.
Self-funded employers pay ASO fees for access to Elevance's contracted rates, provider relationships and claims liability, none of which an internal AI system can replicate no matter how cheap the code becomes.
ASO fee per member trend · Employer direct-contracting pilots · Large account retention rates
relevance 55 · confidence 70
AI Intermediation Position do AI agents go through them or around them? 57
Agents must route through the regulated payer rails, but member-side agents make denials costlier to sustain.
No agent can bypass a licensed risk bearer for claim payment, yet AI shopping tools in the individual and MA markets sharpen plan comparison and automated appeal drafting raises the cost of every marginal utilization decision.
Individual and MA switching rates · Appeal volume per thousand members · AI benefits-navigation tool adoption
relevance 55 · confidence 62
Data Leverage does their data make AI better? 65
Enormous longitudinal claims data, but thin clinical depth and HIPAA limits on monetization.
Claims across roughly 45 million members improve risk adjustment, care gap targeting and fraud detection internally, but Elevance does not own the EHR-level clinical record and cannot sell the asset outward the way a data vendor could.
Carelon data product revenue · Risk adjustment accuracy versus audit · HealthOS platform adoption metrics
relevance 60 · confidence 62
AI Margin Conversion do the AI savings become profit? 60
Admin savings are not MLR-rebatable and drop to pretax, but competitive bidding steadily gives them back.
On roughly 199B of revenue, each point of admin ratio is about 2B pretax against 5.66B of net income - genuinely material - yet Medicaid and MA are bid markets where sustained cost advantage gets priced into the next contract cycle.
Operating expense ratio year over year · Medicaid and MA bid margin trends · Headcount versus membership growth
relevance 85 · confidence 64
Revenue Unit Durability does the thing they charge for survive? 54
PMPM premium survives, but MLR floors mean the profit pool scales with the medical spend AI could shrink.
The billing unit is not at risk from AI, however the regulated margin structure ties absolute profit dollars to healthcare cost inflation, making Elevance structurally short any real AI-driven deflation in cost of care.
Premium yield per member trend · Medical cost trend guidance · Carelon share of consolidated revenue
relevance 70 · confidence 60
Entrant Compression how easily can newcomers copy them? 83
AI-native insurers remain blocked by capital, licenses and network rates - the insurtech record proves it.
Oscar, Bright and Clover showed superior software does not buy contracted hospital rates, statutory reserves, star ratings or Medicaid incumbency; cheap code lowers the least binding barrier in this industry.
New MA plan entrant filings · Insurtech loss ratio performance · Big tech health financing moves
relevance 65 · confidence 78

AI Lens thesis

Elevance is a regulated risk-bearing balance sheet wrapped in an enormous clerical operation, so AI reaches it through cost of goods sold in the clerical layer and almost nowhere else. The underlying need - financing and rationing care - is untouchable, the entrant threat is near zero given the insurtech graveyard proved capital and network rates beat technology, and the responsibility for actuarial and compliance risk is exactly what customers pay to hand off. The real exposure runs the other way: an arms race where providers automate billing and members automate appeals, plus the structural oddity that under MLR floors the profit pool scales with medical spend, so genuine AI-driven healthcare deflation would shrink the premium base Elevance earns on. Net effect is modestly positive on margin, neutral to negative on the revenue unit, and second-order next to utilization trend.

Thesis breaker If operating expense ratio improves 100bp or more over two years while benefit expense ratio stabilizes, the favorable read is confirmed; if SG&A falls but medical loss ratio rises in lockstep, AI is a wash and the read should drop toward neutral.
What the market may be underestimating

Upside Carelon Services and CarelonRx are labor-intensive service businesses where AI compresses cost per case directly, and unlike premium revenue those margins are not MLR-capped, so the mix shift toward Carelon amplifies whatever automation gains Elevance actually captures.

Downside Under MLR floors, insurer profit dollars are roughly proportional to medical spend, so a world where AI genuinely lowers cost of care shrinks Elevance's revenue base and absolute profit pool even if the margin percentage holds - the company is structurally short healthcare deflation.

Outcome range spread 41

34Bear case
56Central case
75Bull case
Three headline numbers, deliberately never blended: Position (which way), Exposure (how much it matters at all), Confidence (how sure). The fingerprint asks every stock the same 11 questions so companies a sector label would lump together get told apart. Not an input to GEM/Coal or the Q/V/S lenses.
Claude Reading
Independent analyst synthesis · claude-opus-4-7 · generated 2026-08-11 00:48:17
Verdict Fairly valued to modestly overvalued at $397 — fair value $360-390 given earnings/FCF deterioration; wait for margin inflection in Q3'26 or a pullback to $340 before committing.

Starting with the raw tape: revenue is fine — $199B FY25 vs $138B FY21 is a 7.8% CAGR, and recent quarters ($50B run-rate) show 12.5% YoY growth. But everything below the top line is deteriorating. Net income went $6.10B → $6.03B → $5.99B → $5.98B → $5.66B over five years — an outright decline while revenue grew 44%. Operating margin collapsed from 5.4% in 2021 to 3.6% in 2025. The Q4 seasonality is brutal and worsening: Q4'24 NI was $418M (0.9% margin) and Q4'25 was $547M (1.1%) — these are MLR blowouts, not noise. And 2026 is not healing: Q1'26 margin 3.5% vs Q1'25 4.5%, Q2'26 2.9% vs Q2'25 3.5%. That's roughly 100bps of margin compression YoY on a base that's already thin. FCF fell from ~$8B historically to $3.17B in FY25 — a 60%+ drawdown that ev_to_ebitda of ~15x doesn't reflect if EBITDA quality is deteriorating via reserve/working-capital timing.

The synthesis says "fair value $405 vs $397" and the narrative model says fundamentals anchor price. I dissent — mildly. The composite treats the 15.7x P/E as reasonable for a mature earner, but that P/E is on TTM earnings that are still rolling off a higher base. If I annualize the last four quarters (Q3'25 $1.19B + Q4'25 $0.55B + Q1'26 $1.76B + Q2'26 $1.46B = $4.96B), forward EPS is closer to ~$22-23 vs the ~$25 implied by trailing, pushing real P/E to ~17-18x on a business whose earnings are shrinking. The Market Forces model calling this "deteriorating franchise… avoid" is closer to the truth than the narrative model's "steady compounder." You can't be a steady compounder with -2.8% earnings CAGR and -31.5% FCF CAGR. Those two models contradict each other and the narrative model is wrong on the label.

The contrarian bull case — which the Thesis Evaluation flags as Carelon SOTP mispricing — is real but unquantified here. If Carelon does ~$55B revenue at even 6% margins, that's $3.3B of operating income embedded inside a company generating $7.2B total op income, and pure-play services peers trade at richer multiples than 15x. The insider buying on 7/17/2026 (three separate purchases, ~3,700 sh) after the Q2 print is a genuinely positive tell — insiders don't open-market buy managed care names into MLR panic unless they think 2H is inflecting. Debt is manageable in absolute terms (D/E 0.72, $9.5B cash against $31.9B debt), but interest coverage on a $7.2B op income base is fine — the "high debt risk" flag in synthesis feels overwrought. Where I'd push back on my own bear read: the 12.5% recent revenue YoY plus stable membership suggests pricing catch-up in 2026 renewals is real; managed care margin cycles historically resolve in 4-6 quarters once rate adequacy is restored.

Net verdict: I lean bearish-to-fair on the current $397 print but not aggressively so. The synthesis fair value of $405 assumes earnings normalize back toward $25-27 EPS; if that happens by 2027 renewal cycle, the stock works and the insider buying is prescient. If MLR pressure is structural (Medicare Advantage rate notice cycles, Medicaid redetermination overhang extending), forward EPS stalls at $20-22 and fair value is $320-350 at a deserved 16x. I'd want to see one clean quarter — ideally Q3'26 above 3.5% net margin — before committing. The narrative model calling this "durable steady compounder" is the read I most disagree with; this is a cyclical margin story misclassified as a utility. Weight of evidence: I'd rather own UNH at a premium than ELV at a "discount" that's actually fair for a compressing-margin #2 player. Not a short — cash flows, dividend (1.72%), and insider buying prevent that — but not a buy at $397 either. Wait for either $340 (margin of safety) or a print confirming inflection.

GPT Reading
Independent reading · gpt-5.4 · generated 2026-08-11 00:48:32
Verdict Slightly overvalued at $398 — fair value is closer to $340-$360 unless margins and cash conversion recover meaningfully.

Elevance’s numbers read like a business getting bigger without getting better. Revenue has climbed from $138.6B in 2021 to $199.1B in 2025, and the latest two quarters are still running above $50B each versus $48.9B and $49.8B in the comparable 2025 quarters. But that scale has not translated into earnings leverage. Net income was $6.10B in 2021 and only $5.66B in 2025 despite $60B of added revenue; operating income has slid from $8.50B in 2023 to $7.86B in 2024 and $7.20B in 2025. That is the central fact here. On a quarterly basis the same pattern persists: Q2 2026 revenue grew to $50.47B from $49.78B a year ago, but net income fell to $1.46B from $1.74B and margin compressed from 3.5% to 2.9%. Q1 2026 showed the same issue, with revenue up to $50.18B from $48.89B but earnings down to $1.76B from $2.18B. For an insurer, a few tenths of margin matter enormously, and Elevance is losing them.

That is why I’m less comforted than the “mature earner / fair value” framing suggests. A 15.8x P/E does not look demanding in isolation, but on 2025 free cash flow of just $3.17B, the equity is trading around a 27x FCF multiple and roughly a 3.7% FCF yield. That is not cheap for a company with negative earnings CAGR over the last five years, declining operating profit, and visible quarterly margin pressure. The balance sheet is manageable rather than distressed—$31.9B debt against $9.5B cash and $44.0B equity—but it removes the case for a premium multiple when cash conversion is this soft. Operating cash flow of $4.29B versus $5.66B of net income is also not what you want to see from a supposedly defensive compounding model. If this were a clean high-quality insurer compounding earnings mid-single digits, the current valuation would be fine; but the reported data show a low-margin revenue grower whose profit pool is shrinking.

What stands out to me is that the market may actually still be giving Elevance too much credit for stability. The recent quarters are not disastrous, but they are consistent: approximately flat sequential revenue around $50B, paired with earnings that bounce around a low base and a recurring ugly Q4. Net margins of 4.5% in Q1 2025, 3.5% in Q2 2025, 2.3% in Q3 2025, and 1.1% in Q4 2025 show how little cushion there is. Annual net margin was 2.84% in 2025. When a business lives on sub-3% net margins, underwriting discipline and medical cost trend have to be excellent; otherwise “cheap on sales” is meaningless. EV/revenue at 0.55x and P/S at 0.45x look optically low because this is an industry where most of the revenue base passes through with very thin economic spread. On returns, 12.9% ROE and 9.1% ROIC are respectable but not special enough to justify paying up for a business whose free cash flow has reportedly compounded down sharply. My read is that this is closer to a pressured utility than a stealth compounder.

The best argument against my skepticism is that the stock already reflects much of this. At under 16x earnings, 2.0x book, and with a modest dividend payout ratio of 27%, Elevance is not being priced like a premium growth healthcare platform. Revenue growth remains solid at 12.5% on the recent annualized comparison, the latest two quarters still produced over $3.2B of combined net income, and insider activity recently tilted to purchases rather than sales. If the 2025 cash flow weakness was timing-related rather than structural, then valuing the company off one depressed FCF year is too harsh. A smart bull would also say that comparing net income across insurers can overstate deterioration because reserve movements and seasonal utilization can distort quarter-to-quarter readings, while the franchise still generates acceptable ROE with a current ratio above 1.5 and debt-to-equity under 0.75. In that framing, paying a market multiple for a defensive healthcare payer with nearly $200B of revenue is perfectly reasonable.

I weigh those counterpoints less heavily because I do not see evidence yet that margin compression has bottomed. To change my mind, I would want to see at least two things in the next few quarters: first, operating and net income growth resuming alongside revenue growth, specifically a return to quarterly net margins consistently above 3.5% and annual operating income back above the 2023 level of $8.5B; second, cash conversion recovering, with operating cash flow materially exceeding net income and free cash flow moving back toward $5B-plus. If Elevance can produce that while holding debt roughly stable, then 15-16x earnings would look attractive. Without that, I think the stock deserves a discount, not a “steady compounder” multiple.

Grok Reading
Independent reading · grok-4.5 · generated 2026-08-11 00:49:18
Verdict Fairly valued to slightly cheap at $398; upside capped near $420–440 until FCF and op. margin stabilize above 2025 lows

Elevance’s numbers describe a scale compounder whose top line is still working while the earnings engine is grinding lower. Revenue climbed from $138.6B in 2021 to $199.1B in 2025 (roughly 7.8% CAGR), and the last four reported quarters have held in a tight $49.8–$50.7B band with recent year-over-year growth still near 12.5%. That is not a demand problem. The problem is conversion: operating income has slid from a $8.45–$8.50B peak in 2022–23 to $7.20B in 2025, net income has drifted from $6.10B to $5.66B, and free cash flow printed only $3.17B against $5.66B of reported earnings. Operating margin at 3.6% and net margin at 2.8% are a clear step-down from the mid-cycle levels of a few years ago, and the seasonal Q4 collapse (0.9% and 1.1% net margins in the two most recent year-ends) shows medical-cost and mix pressure is still biting hard. At $397.70 the stock screens at 15.8x earnings, 0.45x sales and 14.9x EV/EBITDA—cheap relative to historical managed-care averages, but only if the margin line stops falling.

What stands out against the cleaner model outputs is the cash-flow fracture. A mature earner archetype with “adequate” FCF quality is hard to square with a –31.5% FCF CAGR and operating cash flow of just $4.29B on nearly $200B of revenue. Net debt sits near $22.4B (total debt $31.9B less $9.5B cash) against equity of $44.0B; the 0.72 debt-to-equity ratio is manageable, but interest coverage and refinancing risk flagged in the valuation layer are real when FCF has halved relative to the earnings power of the early decade. Insider purchases in July 2026 (small open-market buys totaling a few thousand shares) are a mild positive signal, not a thesis. Carelon and the “health platform” story remain largely invisible in the consolidated margins; until services mix or MLR improvement shows up in the operating line, the diversification premium is aspirational.

The strongest case against a constructive read is simply the trajectory the bears already own: earnings CAGR of –2.8% while revenue grows, structural Medicare Advantage rate pressure, extended Medicaid redetermination noise, and a market that has already compressed the multiple to utility-like levels because it expects more of the same. A smart opponent would also note that the valuation synthesis’s unadjusted composite near $497 collapses to roughly $405 once risk flags are applied—barely above the current print—and that EV/EBITDA near 15x is not a bargain if EBITDA itself is still eroding. I weigh those points seriously; they keep conviction from rising. I simply put more weight on the fact that 15.8x trailing earnings already embeds a gloomy margin path, revenue remains resilient, ROE is still 12.9%, the dividend (1.7% yield, 27% payout) is covered, and H1 2026 net income of $3.22B annualizes above the depressed 2025 full-year result if the usual Q4 air-pocket is not worse than last year.

I would flip to a clear undervaluation call on two consecutive quarters of operating margin back above 4% with FCF conversion above 70% of net income, or on evidence that Carelon is contributing measurable margin expansion rather than just revenue. I would flip bearish if 2026 full-year FCF falls below $2.5B or if net margins settle sustainably under 2.5% amid another MA rate cut cycle.

Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Each AI above independently stated a direction (undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued) and how strongly it believes it (conviction, 0–5). We combine those into a Bull-Bear Index on a 0–10 scale: 5 is neutral, 10 is maximum bullish (undervalued at full conviction), 0 is maximum bearish. We compute the score ourselves with the same arithmetic for every seat — the models never grade their own bullishness — so the three are directly comparable. Δ shows how far each seat sits from the panel average of 4.0; a large Δ marks the dissenting voice, usually the one worth reading.
Claude claude-opus-4-7 5.0
fairly valued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +1.0 vs panel · self: 4.0
GPT gpt-5.4 2.0
overvalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ -2.0 vs panel · self: 4.0
Grok grok-4.5 5.0
fairly valued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +1.0 vs panel · self: 5.0
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), plus AI Impact (how the AI wave reshapes it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-08-11 01:18:30
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality - wait for a dip 7/10
Elevance is a fundamentally sound but margin-bleeding managed-care compounder trading at fair value with no real edge - a name to buy on a proper break, not here.
The cruxWhether operating margin and FCF stop compressing - the four-year monotonic decline from 5.4% to 3.6% op margin and halved FCF is what makes today's fair-value print unattractive.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from ELV's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionShare Count Shrinking
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The four lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
-27
Solid
edge √Σ 82 · risk √Σ 110 · conf 7/10

Elevance is a $199B revenue health insurer that has grown the top line from $138.6B in 2021 to $199.1B in 2025 (about 9.5% CAGR), while diluted share count fell from 246.8M to 224.6M (-2.3% CAGR) via buybacks that dwarf SBC (buyback/SBC 972%, SBC only 0.1% of revenue). Earnings quality is clean: OCF/NI of 1.17x, accruals -1.1% of assets, Altman Z 3.13 (safe), no mechanical red flags. Insider activity skews to net buying with recent open-market purchases by Boudreaux and Peru totaling over $1.3M in July 2026.

Strengths 3
m55
Disciplined share count reduction
Diluted shares down 2.3% CAGR (246.8M to 224.6M) with SBC only 0.1% of revenue and buyback/SBC ratio near 10x - per-share value concentrated, not diluted.
m50
Clean earnings quality
OCF/NI 1.17x, accruals -1.1% of assets, Altman Z 3.13 - reported earnings are backed by cash and no mechanical accounting flags.
m35
Insider open-market buying
Recent July 2026 P-purchases from Peru ($366K) and Boudreaux (~$1M combined) exceed the trickle of small S-sales - directionally positive signal from those closest to the business.
Concerns 3
m70
Persistent margin compression
Operating margin has fallen every single year from 5.4% (2021) to 3.6% (2025); net income declined from $6.10B to $5.66B despite revenue rising 44%, indicating structural MLR/cost pressure not a one-off.
m72
FCF cut by more than half
Free cash flow dropped from $7.28B (2021) to $3.17B (2025) on rising revenue - cash conversion is deteriorating fast and the trend is monotonic through the five-year window.
m45
Net debt exceeds cash cushion
Net cash of -$22.4B against $9.5B liquid; leverage is a real constraint when FCF is shrinking and buybacks continue to consume capital.
This is a fundamentally sound, cash-generating managed-care giant with clean accounting and shareholder-friendly capital returns - but the direction of travel is wrong. Every profitability metric that matters (op margin, net income, FCF) has weakened for four straight years while revenue grew, which is the fingerprint of a medical-cost squeeze the company has not yet contained. The buybacks are real but partly funded against a levered balance sheet with halving FCF. Insider buys are encouraging but modest. Solid business, deteriorating trend - I land mid-Solid, not Strong.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Medical loss ratio trend and driver commentary in the 10-K to confirm margin pressure is cyclical vs structural
  • Debt maturity schedule and interest coverage given $22.4B net debt
  • Segment mix shift between Health Benefits and Carelon and profitability by segment
  • Buyback authorization remaining and capital allocation priorities given falling FCF
  • Any regulatory or Medicare Advantage rate exposure driving the margin squeeze
Valuation / Mispricing
-20
Fairly Valued
edge √Σ 43 · risk √Σ 63 · conf 7/10
Price $397.70 vs signal-adjusted deserved ~$405 (2% upside) and EPV floor $372 - within 7% of the floor, no real margin of safety. attractive below $340.00

The e2e synthesis lands at a signal-adjusted FV of $405.25 vs a $397.70 price - a 2% gap that is statistical noise, not a margin of safety. The composite $496.79 leans heavily on an anchored-PE of $690.50 which is out of family with the other methods and should be discounted given the four-year margin compression flagged by the quality lens; strip that and you get a DCF at $462 and an EPV floor at $372, bracketing today's price. That bracket is the honest read: the market is paying roughly what the cash flows deserve for a mature managed-care compounder whose operating and FCF margins are still drifting the wrong way.

Cheap signals 2
m35
DCF above price
DCF at $462 implies ~16% upside if mid-single-digit growth and current margins hold - a modest cushion but not a discount.
m25
EPV floor close but supportive
EPV of $372 is only 6% below the $397.70 price, meaning downside to a no-growth valuation is contained.
Rich / priced-in 3
m45
Anchored-PE is a runaway input
The $690.50 anchored-PE (74% above spot) drags the composite to $497 and should be heavily discounted - PE anchors on trailing multiples that predate the ongoing margin squeeze.
m40
Deserved value should be haircut for deteriorating margins
Op margin, net income and FCF have compressed four years running per the quality lens; that lowers the deserved multiple even though earnings quality is clean, pulling fair value toward the EPV/DCF midpoint near $415.
m20
No mispricing edge visible
Signal-adjusted upside of 2% is inside the error bars of any valuation method - the market already sees the steady-compounder story.
This is fair, not cheap. Signal-adjusted FV of $405 against a $397 tape is a rounding error, and the composite only looks generous because a stretched PE anchor is doing the lifting. I want a real discount to the EPV floor before I get interested - call it $340 or below, which would give me a genuine cushion against the margin bleed the quality lens is flagging. Above that, I am paying full price for a business whose profitability is still trending the wrong way.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Medical loss ratio trajectory in next 10-Q and any guidance reset
  • Carelon segment margin and revenue disclosure to test the integration thesis
  • 2025 EPS guide vs consensus - a cut would reset the anchored-PE input
  • Buyback pace relative to FCF given the FCF compression
General Sentiment
-16
Balanced
tail √Σ 36 · head √Σ 52 · conf 6/10

Elevance sits in the quietest corner of the sentiment map right now. The narrative intensity on the name is minimal - there is no cult, no mania, no active de-rating story either. The tape is mildly risk-on (+47), which mechanically favors higher-beta names; ELV's 0.69 beta means it captures only a fraction of that lift, and managed care is not the sector traders reach for in a risk-on rotation. So the market-wide tailwind lands as a light breeze here at best.

Tailwinds 2
m30
Low beta insulates from macro headwinds
10y at 4.65% and market PE at 26 are broad headwinds, but ELV's 0.69 beta and defensive cash flows mute the transmission. In a stress event this name would outperform - a latent tailwind rather than an active one.
m20
Low volatility, predictable print
Steady revenue growth and low variance appeal to quality/low-vol factor flows that persist even in risk-on tapes. A quiet, dependable bid under the stock.
Headwinds 3
m35
Wrong sector for a risk-on tape
Managed care is a defensive, low-beta group; in a building risk-on regime, flows chase higher-beta growth and cyclicals. ELV gets left behind in relative terms even if absolute pressure is modest.
m30
No narrative to defend
Narrative intensity is minimal and durability is 'durable' only in the sense of boring. With price already matching DCF fair value, there is no story premium the market is willing to pay - and no bull catalyst on the tape to spark one.
m25
Weakening cash generation flagged in momentum
Not a fundamentals verdict, but a sentiment risk: managed-care investors watch cash conversion closely, and any softening feeds the bear 'commoditizing utility' framing that is quietly available to short-sellers.
Net read: genuinely balanced, leaning very slightly negative on relative flows. This is a name the tape neither loves nor hates right now - no narrative wind, low beta damping the risk-on lift, and a defensive sector that is simply not where money is rotating. There is no active de-rating pressure and no active mania; the stock will move on its earnings prints, not on sentiment. That is itself a kind of headwind in a market chasing stories, but a mild one.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Any CMS rate notice or MLR commentary that could ignite the bear 'margin erosion' narrative
  • Carelon integration milestones - a stumble here is the one story crack that could turn sentiment negative
  • Sector rotation signals: if defensives start bleeding relative strength, ELV underperforms even a flat tape
  • Analyst target revisions post next print - currently quiet, which is the sentiment status quo
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
AI Impact
+42
Mildly favorable - real admin lever, but not the binding constraint
opp √Σ 113 · thr √Σ 0 · conf 7/10

Elevance is a regulated risk-bearing balance sheet wrapped in an enormous clerical operation, so AI reaches it through cost of goods sold in the clerical layer and almost nowhere else. The underlying need - financing and rationing care - is untouchable, the entrant threat is near zero given the insurtech graveyard proved capital and network rates beat technology, and the responsibility for actuarial and compliance risk is exactly what customers pay to hand off. The real exposure runs the other way: an arms race where providers automate billing and members automate appeals, plus the structural oddity that under MLR floors the profit pool scales with medical spend, so genuine AI-driven healthcare deflation would shrink the premium base Elevance earns on. Net effect is modestly positive on margin, neutral to negative on the revenue unit, and second-order next to utilization trend.

AI opportunities 9
m60
Underlying Need Persistence
Risk pooling and payment for care survives any level of machine intelligence.
m35
Solution Persistence
The managed care intermediary form persists; its threats are political and clinical, not algorithmic.
m14
Intelligence Commoditization
Cheap AI powers Elevance's back office but arms every counterparty equally, yielding little relative edge.
m56
Responsibility Transfer
Elevance is paid to own actuarial, regulatory and coverage-decision liability that no model will absorb.
m35
Scarcity Migration
As software goes to zero, licenses, network rates and statutory capital become the relatively scarcer assets.
m31
Customer DIY Preference
Employers already DIY the risk; what they buy is the network discount, which AI cannot manufacture.
m18
Data Leverage
Enormous longitudinal claims data, but thin clinical depth and HIPAA limits on monetization.
m17
AI Margin Conversion
Admin savings are not MLR-rebatable and drop to pretax, but competitive bidding steadily gives them back.
m43
Entrant Compression
AI-native insurers remain blocked by capital, licenses and network rates - the insurtech record proves it.
AI threats 0

None surfaced.

AI here is an SG&A story, not a growth story - the payoff exists but only shows up if admin savings outrun the provider-side billing automation coming at Elevance from the other direction. The clean asymmetry: MLR rules rebate medical savings but let administrative savings fall to pretax, so roughly a point of admin ratio on 199B of revenue is about 2B against 5.66B of net income - a real lever on a business whose operating margin has fallen from 5.4 to 3.6 percent. What kills it is symmetry: hospitals deploying AI coding and automated appeals raise paid claims faster than payers can automate review, and regulators are simultaneously fencing off algorithmic denials. Watch the spread between operating expense ratio improvement and benefit expense ratio drift in the same quarter; that single divergence resolves whether AI is 300bp of latent margin or a treadmill.
Verify before trusting this (8)
  • Operating expense ratio year over year
  • Medicaid and MA bid margin trends
  • Headcount versus membership growth
  • CMS rules on algorithmic denials
  • AI-denial litigation against peers
  • Appeals overturn rate disclosures
  • Contracted rate spread versus peers
  • Blue licensing or antitrust rulings
The structural effect of the AI wave on this specific business over the next ~5 years — demand, cost leverage, moat, barriers to entry, position in the AI stack. The reality beneath the AI story, not the story's market pressure (General Sentiment owns that) — and not a call on the business today or the price.
Growth Outlook
not run

This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.

The forward growth verdict — is the business itself likely to grow (next 2 quarters / year 1 / years 2–3), judged against its category and against printed expectations. The full horizon ladder + creme renders on the Growth Outlook card above. Not a call on the price (Valuation owns that) or the tape (Sentiment owns that).
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Lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure), AI Impact (structural ~5yr AI exposure), and Growth Outlook (the forward growth verdict). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Price Prediction
Higher +5.1% v0.6.0 View full prediction →

When we made this prediction on Aug 11, 2026, ELV was $397.70. We expect it to be $418.00 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $340.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 11, 2026.

Price when predicted$397.70
Our estimate for Feb 2027$418.00+5.1%
Great value below$340.00
Price history shown (6 Months)

Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.

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My Notes personal — only you see this
v1.1.562 · 9b2927c4 · 2026-08-22 16:52:06