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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Low · Gem Score -42 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 2 · Value -78 · Sentiment 53 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $21.86 vs $69.62 at analysis
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profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
price-history,income-trend,key-metrics,financials(statement tables),insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.
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any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER ·
raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds);
every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.
Freeport-McMoRan Inc.
FCX NYSEFreeport-McMoRan Inc. is a leading international metals company focused on the mining, processing, and sale of copper, gold, and molybdenum. Freeport-McMoRan Inc. operates large-scale assets across the United States, Indonesia, Peru, and Chile, with major interests in copper mines and mineral districts that supply essential materials for electrical infrastructure, industrial manufacturing, construction, and energy-related applications. The company also produces copper concentrate, cathodes, and copper rod, serving smelters, refiners, and industrial customers through integrated operations that span extraction and downstream processing. Its business is centered on copper, making it a significant participant in global base-metals markets and an important supplier to sectors that depend on reliable metal inputs. Headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona, Freeport-McMoRan Inc. remains a diversified mining company with a strong operational footprint in some of the world’s most important copper-producing regions.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 2.88
Total Equity: $30.77B
Shares: 1,443,000,000
Total Debt: $9.38B
Cash: $3.82B
EBITDA: $8.76B
Total Debt: $9.38B
Cash: $3.82B
Revenue: $25.92B
Revenue: $25.92B
Revenue: $25.92B
Total Equity: $30.77B
Tax Rate: 34.9%
Equity: $30.77B
Total Debt: $9.38B
Cash: $3.82B
Current Liabilities: $6.02B
Long-Term Debt: $8.91B
Total Debt: $9.38B
Total Equity: $30.77B
Shares: 1,443,000,000
Shares: 1,443,000,000
CapEx: -$4.49B
Shares: 1,443,000,000
Stock Price: $69.62
Net Income: $4.15B
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 7, 2026 4:48am (16d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $22.8B | $22.8B | $22.9B | $25.5B | $25.9B |
| Cost of Revenue | $14.0B | $15.1B | $15.7B | $17.8B | $18.6B |
| Gross Profit | $8.8B | $7.7B | $7.2B | $7.7B | $7.3B |
| Operating Expenses | $449.0M | $654.0M | $935.0M | $796.0M | $779.0M |
| Operating Income | $8.4B | $7.0B | $6.2B | $6.9B | $6.5B |
| Net Income | $5.4B | $4.5B | $3.8B | $4.4B | $4.2B |
| EBITDA | $10.4B | $9.1B | $8.3B | $9.1B | $8.8B |
| EPS | $2.93 | $3.11 | $2.62 | $3.06 | $2.89 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $2.90 | $3.09 | $2.60 | $3.04 | $2.88 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 6, 2026 7:36am (17d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $8.1B | $8.1B | $4.8B | $3.9B | $3.8B |
| Total Current Assets | $14.8B | $15.6B | $14.1B | $13.3B | $13.8B |
| Total Assets | $48.0B | $51.1B | $52.5B | $54.8B | $58.2B |
| Current Liabilities | $5.9B | $6.3B | $5.8B | $5.5B | $6.0B |
| Long-Term Debt | $9.1B | $9.6B | $8.7B | $8.9B | $8.9B |
| Total Liabilities | $25.0B | $26.2B | $25.2B | $26.1B | $27.4B |
| Total Equity | $23.0B | $24.9B | $27.3B | $28.8B | $30.8B |
| Retained Earnings | -$7.4B | -$3.9B | -$2.1B | -$170.0M | $1.4B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 7, 2026 4:48am (16d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $7.7B | $5.1B | $5.3B | $7.2B | $5.6B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$2.1B | -$3.5B | -$4.8B | -$4.8B | -$4.5B |
| Free Cash Flow | $5.6B | $1.7B | $455.0M | $2.4B | $1.1B |
| Acquisitions (net) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | -$260.0M | $1.2B | -$1.2B | -$480.0M | $418.0M |
| Dividends Paid | -$1.0B | — | — | — | — |
| Stock Buybacks | -$488.0M | -$1.3B | $0 | -$59.0M | -$107.0M |
| Net Change in Cash | $4.4B | $76.0M | -$2.3B | -$1.2B | -$738.0M |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 7, 2026 4:48am (16d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | -0.3% | +0.3% | +11.4% | +1.8% |
| Gross Profit Growth | -12.8% | -6.9% | +7.0% | -4.7% |
| Operating Income Growth | -15.9% | -11.5% | +10.3% | -5.0% |
| Net Income Growth | -16.5% | -16.3% | +17.3% | -5.6% |
| EBITDA Growth | -12.6% | -8.4% | +9.8% | -3.8% |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 6, 2026 7:36am (17d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | $0.15 | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-15 | $0.15 | — | — | — |
| 2026-01-15 | $0.15 | — | — | — |
| 2025-10-15 | $0.15 | — | — | — |
| 2025-07-15 | $0.15 | — | — | — |
| 2025-04-15 | $0.08 | — | — | — |
| 2025-01-15 | $0.08 | — | — | — |
| 2024-10-15 | $0.08 | — | — | — |
| 2024-07-15 | $0.08 | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-12 | $0.08 | — | — | — |
| 2024-01-11 | $0.08 | — | — | — |
| 2023-10-12 | $0.08 | — | — | — |
| 2023-07-13 | $0.08 | — | — | — |
| 2023-04-13 | $0.08 | — | — | — |
| 2023-01-12 | $0.08 | — | — | — |
| 2022-10-13 | $0.08 | — | — | — |
| 2022-07-14 | $0.08 | — | — | — |
| 2022-04-13 | $0.08 | — | — | — |
| 2022-01-13 | $0.08 | — | — | — |
| 2021-10-14 | $0.08 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Risk : Reward — if the last quarter repeats
Live · as of 2026-08-19 08:51Even the bull case prices 56% below today — the ratio here measures the model-vs-market gap, not payoff odds. Another quarter like the worst recent one costs 80%.
| Case | Growth | Margin | Fair value | vs price ($69.62) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull — recovery | +4% | 22.3% | $30.39 | -56% |
| Base — stabilizes | +3% | 19.4% | $25.69 | -63% |
| Bear — keeps slipping | +1% | 16.5% | $21.37 | -69% |
| Stress — last quarter repeats | -2% | 10.6% | $13.68 | -80% |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
Looking at the raw numbers first: FCX is running $25.9B revenue on 6.5% CAGR, net margin 16%, ROE 13.5%, ROIC 11.7% — this is a decent but unspectacular capital-intensive miner. TTM revenue trajectory (Q2'26 $7.03B, Q1'26 $6.23B, Q4'25 $5.63B) shows sequential recovery but Q2'26 is still below the Q2'25 peak of $7.58B. Net income in Q2'26 of $984M annualizes toward ~$4B, essentially flat with 2024's $4.40B. FCF of $1.12B on $97B market cap is a 1.15% FCF yield — that is genuinely thin, and the $4.49B capex versus $5.61B operating cash flow tells you this business needs nearly 80% of operating cash to stand still. Balance sheet is fine (D/E 0.30, current ratio 2.29), dividend yield a token 0.86%.
The synthesis verdict of $21.72 fair value against $69.62 is aggressive to the point of being non-actionable — a 69% haircut implies mid-cycle copper at ~$3/lb and no multiple expansion, which is a defensible DCF input but ignores that copper equities have traded 15-25x through-cycle earnings for two decades when a supercycle narrative is live. The Market Forces commentary about "operational dysfunction, market share collapse, and accounting red flags" is not supported by the data I see here — Grasberg transition issues are real but revenue is growing, margins are stable, and there's no restatement flag in the numbers. That commentary looks like hallucinated color; I'd discount it. The Narrative Economics read is the most honest piece: at $69, the market embeds $4.50+/lb copper as a durable regime, and the DCF at $21.72 embeds ~$3.50/lb reversion. Truth is probably in the middle.
A careful contrarian on the bearish synthesis would note: (1) copper's supply response is genuinely constrained — Cochilco, Wood Mackenzie, and even bearish sell-side decks show mine grade decline of ~15% this decade and no major greenfield projects online before 2028; (2) FCX's Grasberg is a Tier-1 asset with block-cave economics that few peers can match; (3) the 56.6% FCF CAGR (albeit off a low base) and accelerating quarterly revenue trend suggest the operating leverage from copper prices is real and asymmetric to the upside; (4) insider selling of 7,550 shares is trivial noise against 1.4B shares outstanding — the "neutral insider" tag is correct, and Market Forces overreaches by calling it a "credibility crisis." A copper price of $4.25-4.75/lb sustained for 3-5 years — not permanently — would justify $55-65 fair value using normalized 12-14x EBITDA on ~$11-12B mid-cycle EBITDA less net debt.
I partially dissent from the synthesis. $21.72 is a lower-bound scenario, not a fair value. The $97B market cap is pricing in a specific regime (copper >$4.25/lb, 12x EV/EBITDA on cyclical peak earnings) and gives you no margin of safety, but calling FCX "overvalued by 69%" implies a bear case that requires a 2015-style copper collapse to $2.50/lb — plausible in recession, not a base case. My read: FCX is modestly to moderately overvalued at $69, with fair value in a $45-55 range assuming normalized $3.75-4.00/lb copper and 10-11x mid-cycle EBITDA. The stock is a leveraged bet on copper regime, not a compounder — the 1% FCF yield, 0.86% dividend, and $4.5B annual capex demand tell you all you need to know about intrinsic value creation absent commodity tailwinds. Direction is overvalued, but by ~25-30%, not 70%. I'd wait for copper to pull back to $3.75/lb (typically drags FCX to $45-50) before considering entry, or short-dated puts to express skepticism cheaply. Conviction is moderate — commodity equities can stay dislocated from DCF for years when narratives are live, and the copper supply story does have real teeth.
GPT Reading
At $69.62, FCX is being valued like a scarce growth asset, but the reported numbers still look like a cyclical miner with decent assets and only modest fundamental expansion. Revenue was $25.92B in 2025 versus $25.46B in 2024, just 1.8% growth, while net income actually slipped from $4.40B to $4.15B. That means the market cap of $97.5B is about 23-24x trailing earnings, 3.9x sales, and 12.1x EV/EBITDA for a business whose five-year revenue line is basically flat: $22.85B in 2021, $22.78B in 2022, $22.86B in 2023, then $25.46B and $25.92B. Even the apparent recent momentum needs context. Q2 2026 revenue of $7.03B and net income of $984M improved margin to 14% from 10.2% a year earlier, but Q2 2025 revenue was actually higher at $7.58B. So what is improving is profitability per unit, not a clear volume-led growth breakout. That can be real, but for a miner it is usually more fragile than the multiple implies.
The biggest disconnect is cash generation versus earnings and valuation. 2025 operating cash flow was $5.61B, but free cash flow was only $1.12B after $4.49B of capex. For a $97B equity value, that is barely above a 1% FCF yield. A low FCF yield can be justified if the reinvestment is driving visible growth, yet annual revenue and earnings do not show a step-change. In fact, 2021 still looks like a stronger earnings year than 2025: net income was $5.37B in 2021 versus $4.15B in 2025, and operating income was $8.37B versus $6.52B. Balance sheet risk is not the issue here — net debt is manageable at roughly $5.6B with debt/equity of 0.30 and a current ratio of 2.29 — but a healthy balance sheet alone does not justify paying a premium multiple for cyclical profits. The market appears to be capitalizing a copper-upcycle thesis well ahead of the company proving it in sustained per-share cash returns.
What stands out to me is that FCX is not broken operationally; it is simply expensive relative to what the numbers currently say. ROE of 13.5% and ROIC of 11.7% are solid but not extraordinary for a company with deep commodity exposure and geopolitical complexity. Gross margin of 28.2%, operating margin of 25.2%, and net margin of 16.0% are all respectable, yet they remain below 2021 levels at a time when the stock is commanding a much richer narrative premium. The one recent insider sale, only 7,550 shares, is noise rather than a thesis point. The real issue is simpler: if this is a mature copper franchise earning $4-5B in a good environment, a near-$100B market cap leaves very little room for ordinary cyclical disappointment. You do not need FCX to fail for the stock to disappoint; you only need copper economics to stay merely good instead of structurally exceptional.
The best case against my skepticism is that the market is not paying for the trailing 2025 numbers; it is paying for the next several years of copper scarcity. The quarterly revenue pattern from $5.63B in Q4 2025 to $6.23B in Q1 2026 and $7.03B in Q2 2026 does suggest acceleration, and Q2 2026 net income of $984M on lower revenue than the prior-year quarter suggests operating leverage and improving mix or costs. If FCX can hold mid-teens net margins on a $28-30B revenue base, the current multiple would compress quickly. Also, unlike many commodity names, FCX does have a real asset-quality argument and enough balance-sheet strength to fund capex without stressing solvency. If investors believe current capex is building into a higher-production, higher-cash-flow period rather than merely sustaining the base, then the weak 2025 FCF number may understate normalized owner earnings. That is the strongest bullish rebuttal, and it is not crazy.
What would change my mind is evidence that the company is converting the copper story into durable financial uplift rather than just narrative uplift. Specifically, I would want to see full-year revenue move decisively above $28B, net income above $5.5B, and free cash flow at least $3B without a deterioration in the balance sheet. If the next two quarters show Q2 2026 was not a one-off — for example, sustained quarterly revenue above $7B with net margins in the 14-16% range — then the current price would start to look more defensible. Absent that, I think the stock is priced for a supercycle that the reported annual numbers have not yet earned.
Grok Reading
grok-critique step) alongside the other Big-3 seats, when a
report is run on this ticker.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Freeport screens as a mature commodity producer running clean books. Earnings quality checks are strong: accruals -3.3% of assets, OCF/NI at 1.39x, Beneish M -1.88, and Altman Z 3.14 in the safe zone. Diluted share count is drifting down (-0.7% CAGR) with buybacks running 376% of SBC and SBC only 0.5% of revenue - per-share discipline is intact. The company self-funds with $1.12B FCF and $3.82B cash, though net debt of $5.56B means the balance sheet is a working constraint, not a fortress. The trajectory is the concern. Revenue grew modestly from $22.85B (2021) to $25.92B (2025), but gross margin has compressed every single year from 38.6% to 28.2%, and operating margin from 36.6% to 25.2%. Net income has slid from $5.37B to $4.15B despite higher revenue - classic margin compression in a commodity business. FCF is also volatile and lower-quality: $5.60B, $1.67B, $455M, $2.35B, $1.12B - the e2e flag of Weak Cash Flow Quality tracks with this swinginess and heavy capex intensity. Insider tape is neutral-to-slightly-negative: zero open-market buys against $38M of sales over 12 months, plus a notable 27.7K share gift from Adkerson. Nothing alarming, but no conviction signal either. Overall this is a well-run cyclical miner with honest accounting and shareholder-friendly capital return, held back from a higher grade by structural margin erosion, capex-heavy cash flows, and leverage.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Whether margin compression is driven by Grasberg cost inflation, mine-plan transitions, or copper realized prices versus unit costs
- Debt maturity schedule and covenants given $5.56B net debt position
- Capex outlook - how much of weak FCF is discretionary growth capex versus sustaining
- Indonesia/Grasberg regulatory and ownership status given jurisdictional concentration risk
- Any convertible instruments or off-balance-sheet obligations at PT-FI level
The e2e composite pins deserved value at $22.25 (signal-adjusted $21.72), with DCF at $10.33, EPV floor $26.28, and anchored P/E $42.06. Even the most generous of these - anchored P/E on peak-ish earnings - sits ~40% below the $69.62 print. The EPV floor, which normalizes through-cycle earnings, implies the stock is ~2.6x its steady-state worth. Earnings quality is high (score 3), so there is no accounting haircut to reach for - the gap is real, not a reporting artifact. Company quality is 'Solid' but with compressing margins and lumpy capex-bound FCF; that supports a deserved value nearer the anchored-PE end than the DCF, but nowhere near $70. What is priced in: copper structurally above ~$4.50/lb for the long haul, Grasberg execution clean, and the energy-transition demand curve treated as a secular growth story rather than a cyclical one. That is the bull case as a base case, not a scenario. Sanity check on the FV inputs: the DCF at $10 looks like a runaway low (likely punishing near-term FCF and a high discount rate on a cyclical), so I lean on EPV/anchored-PE as the credible band - $26 to $42. Midpoint ~$34. Against $69.62 that is a ~50% overpricing, not a modest premium. This is 'Rich' rather than 'Overvalued' only because commodity cycles can extend and I do not want to bet against copper spot at frame-extreme confidence.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Long-run copper price deck embedded in sell-side models vs spot
- Grasberg block-cave ramp progress and unit cost guidance
- Capex guidance 2025-2027 and implied maintenance vs growth split
- Net debt trajectory and any hedging disclosures
- Whether anchored-PE uses trailing peak earnings or a normalized figure
FCX is riding a strong, moderately durable narrative: copper as the indispensable metal of electrification, with FCX positioned as the Western supply anchor via Grasberg and Morenci. Intensity is high, cult following is real, and the story has been strong enough to detach price ($69.62) from a DCF-based fair value in the low $20s. That gap IS the sentiment premium, and until the story cracks it keeps working. The tape reinforces it: VIX under 15, S&P at highs, risk-on regime building. Beta 1.38 means FCX gets more than its share of that lift, and momentum is already strong_positive. On top of that, Trump's $3B critical-minerals push (Aug 7) is a direct, name-relevant tailwind for US-listed copper miners framed as China-alternative supply. Zacks industry write-ups grouping FCX with Southern Copper keep the cohort narrative warm. Risks to the read are macro-shaped, not story-shaped: 10y at 4.69% and a market PE of 26 mean any risk-off flip would hit high-beta cyclicals like FCX hard and fast, and the narrative's late-cycle archetype means it is closer to peak belief than to early accumulation.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Copper spot price holding above $4.50/lb - a break would puncture the story fast
- Any China demand data or property/stimulus disappointment that reframes copper demand
- VIX break above 20 or curve/rates shock that flips regime risk-off
- Follow-through legislation or contracts from the Trump critical-minerals initiative naming FCX
- Analyst target revisions - watch for the first downgrade citing normalized copper price
This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.
When we made this prediction on Aug 9, 2026, FCX was $69.62. We expect it to be $61.00 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $38.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 9, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.