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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (FIX) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-10-07): Designation Watch · Gem Score -12 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 82 · Value -75 · Sentiment 83 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $1,228.49 vs $1,727.64 at analysis
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Comfort Systems USA, Inc.
FIX NYSEComfort Systems USA, Inc. is a mechanical and electrical contracting company that provides building systems installation and service across the United States. The company focuses on heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC), as well as plumbing, electrical, piping, controls, off-site construction, system monitoring, and fire protection solutions for non-residential facilities. Comfort Systems USA, Inc. delivers design, engineering, integration, installation, and start-up of mechanical, electrical, and plumbing (MEP) systems for new commercial, industrial, and institutional buildings, while also supporting renovation, expansion, maintenance, monitoring, repair, and replacement projects for existing properties. Its customers include building owners and developers, general contractors, architects, consulting engineers, and property managers, reflecting its role as a key partner throughout the building lifecycle. Headquartered in Houston, Texas, and founded in 1917, Comfort Systems USA, Inc. operates through two primary segments, Mechanical Services and Electrical Services, with a significant portion of its activity centered on mechanical and HVAC-related work that supports essential infrastructure in diverse end markets.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 28.88
Total Equity: $2.45B
Shares: 35,413,000
Total Debt: $145.23M
Cash: $981.90M
EBITDA: $1.38B
Total Debt: $145.23M
Cash: $981.90M
Revenue: $9.10B
Revenue: $9.10B
Revenue: $9.10B
Total Equity: $2.45B
Tax Rate: 20.9%
Equity: $2.45B
Total Debt: $145.23M
Cash: $981.90M
Current Liabilities: $3.39B
Long-Term Debt: $139.06M
Total Debt: $145.23M
Total Equity: $2.45B
Shares: 35,413,000
Shares: 35,413,000
CapEx: -$154.90M
Shares: 35,413,000
Stock Price: $1,739
Net Income: $1.02B
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 14, 2026 12:31am (54d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.1B | $4.1B | $5.2B | $7.0B | $9.1B |
| Cost of Revenue | $2.5B | $3.4B | $4.2B | $5.6B | $6.9B |
| Gross Profit | $563.2M | $741.6M | $990.5M | $1.5B | $2.2B |
| Operating Expenses | $374.8M | $487.8M | $572.1M | $727.0M | $881.3M |
| Operating Income | $188.4M | $253.8M | $418.4M | $749.4M | $1.3B |
| Net Income | $143.3M | $245.9M | $323.4M | $522.4M | $1.0B |
| EBITDA | $216.8M | $287.4M | $456.6M | $797.6M | $1.4B |
| EPS | $3.95 | $6.84 | $9.03 | $14.64 | $28.93 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $3.93 | $6.82 | $9.01 | $14.60 | $28.88 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 11, 2026 12:48pm (57d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $58.8M | $57.2M | $205.2M | $549.9M | $981.9M |
| Total Current Assets | $1.0B | $1.3B | $1.9B | $2.8B | $4.1B |
| Total Assets | $2.2B | $2.6B | $3.3B | $4.7B | $6.4B |
| Current Liabilities | $836.6M | $1.2B | $1.7B | $2.6B | $3.4B |
| Long-Term Debt | $385.2M | $247.2M | $39.3M | $62.3M | $139.1M |
| Total Liabilities | $1.4B | $1.6B | $2.0B | $3.0B | $4.0B |
| Total Equity | $805.7M | $999.9M | $1.3B | $1.7B | $2.4B |
| Retained Earnings | $628.8M | $854.6M | $1.1B | $1.6B | $2.6B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 14, 2026 12:31am (54d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $180.2M | $301.5M | $639.6M | $849.1M | $1.2B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$22.3M | -$48.4M | -$94.8M | -$111.1M | -$154.9M |
| Free Cash Flow | $157.8M | $253.2M | $544.7M | $738.0M | $1.0B |
| Acquisitions (net) | -$227.5M | -$49.2M | -$102.3M | -$235.5M | -$279.6M |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividends Paid | -$17.4M | -$20.1M | -$30.4M | -$42.8M | -$68.8M |
| Stock Buybacks | -$27.1M | -$38.2M | -$21.2M | -$57.9M | -$216.0M |
| Net Change in Cash | $3.9M | -$1.6M | $147.9M | $344.8M | $432.0M |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 14, 2026 12:31am (54d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +34.7% | +25.8% | +35.0% | +29.5% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +31.7% | +33.6% | +49.1% | +48.7% |
| Operating Income Growth | +34.7% | +64.8% | +79.1% | +75.4% |
| Net Income Growth | +71.6% | +31.5% | +61.5% | +95.7% |
| EBITDA Growth | +32.6% | +58.8% | +74.7% | +72.6% |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 11, 2026 12:48pm (57d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | $0.80 | — | — | — |
| 2026-03-06 | $0.70 | — | — | — |
| 2025-11-13 | $0.60 | — | — | — |
| 2025-08-14 | $0.50 | — | — | — |
| 2025-05-16 | $0.45 | — | — | — |
| 2025-03-10 | $0.40 | — | — | — |
| 2024-11-14 | $0.35 | — | — | — |
| 2024-08-12 | $0.30 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-10 | $0.30 | — | — | — |
| 2024-03-07 | $0.25 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-15 | $0.25 | — | — | — |
| 2023-08-16 | $0.23 | — | — | — |
| 2023-05-17 | $0.20 | — | — | — |
| 2023-03-09 | $0.18 | — | — | — |
| 2022-11-16 | $0.15 | — | — | — |
| 2022-08-17 | $0.14 | — | — | — |
| 2022-05-13 | $0.14 | — | — | — |
| 2022-03-10 | $0.13 | — | — | — |
| 2021-11-10 | $0.13 | — | — | — |
| 2021-08-12 | $0.12 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Risk : Reward — upside vs downside from this company's own quarters
Computed 2026-10-04 02:02A +1σ run of quarters pays -40%; a −1σ run costs 68%. Ratio -0.6:1 (μ 39.6%, σ 13.2% , 16 pairs).
Older method (repeat-worst-quarter): 0.7 : 1
| Case | Growth | Margin | Fair value | vs price ($1,727.64) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull — recovery | +78% | 17.3% | $2,395.24 | +39% |
| Base — stabilizes | +52% | 15.0% | $1,155.12 | -33% |
| Bear — keeps slipping | +26% | 12.8% | $510.96 | -70% |
| Stress — last quarter repeats | +35% | 14.1% | $712.25 | -59% |
| Upside — a +1σ run of quarters (v2) | +50% | 14.1% | $1,035.10 | -40% |
| Stress — a −1σ run of quarters (v2) | +26% | 13.9% | $555.05 | -68% |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
Looking at the raw numbers first: FIX has done something extraordinary. Quarterly revenue went from $1.81B (Q3 2024) to $3.27B (Q2 2026) — an 81% increase in seven quarters — while net margin expanded from 8.1% to 13.5%. That's not a normal contractor trajectory; that's operating leverage compounding with mix shift, almost certainly data center / advanced manufacturing MEP work at premium pricing. Trailing four quarters put revenue near $11.2B and NI near $1.43B, so on trailing earnings the P/E is closer to ~43x than the stated 60x, and EV/EBITDA is meaningfully below the 44x annual print. The balance sheet is pristine: $982M cash against $145M debt, ROIC 64%, FCF $1.03B on 2025 and tracking well higher on the current run-rate. This is a genuinely exceptional business right now.
Where I diverge from the synthesis: the $875 signal-adjusted fair value looks anchored to a normalized/steady-state cycle that this company has visibly broken out of. A DCF that produces a 49% discount to spot is telling you the model's terminal assumptions haven't caught up to the regime shift — margins doubled in 24 months and revenue growth accelerated, not decelerated, into the most recent quarter. Calling that "priced for perfection" while the most recent print showed 29.5% YoY revenue and 95.7% YoY earnings growth is internally inconsistent. Perfection would be a beat; this is a beat. The "decelerating quarterly trend" flag in Revenue Confidence is wrong — sequential quarterly revenue growth has been 14%, 8%, 8%, 13%, 19%, 8%, 14% — that's not deceleration, that's acceleration off a bigger base.
That said, the bear case is real and the models undersell one specific risk: backlog concentration in hyperscaler data center capex. If Microsoft/Meta/Google collectively trim 2026-2027 capex by even 15%, MEP contractors with book-and-burn revenue take the hit within two quarters — this isn't recurring SaaS revenue, it's project completion. The insider selling on 6/24 (6,700 shares) is small but is the first meaningful sale in the window and coincides with peak-margin quarters — worth noting, not dispositive. The Market Forces "unsustainable margins" concern is legitimate: 13.5% net margin in mechanical contracting is historically anomalous (peers run 4-7%); reversion to even 10% on flat revenue drops EPS ~25%. The narrative layer's "60% story premium" framing overstates the gap because it uses a DCF that hasn't marked-to-market the earnings power, but the direction is right: you are paying for continued execution.
Committing: I partially dissent from the synthesis. The $875 fair value is too low — it's pricing an old FIX, not the current one. But at $1,739 and ~43x trailing / ~32x forward assuming even modest deceleration, you are paying full price for a cyclical services business at peak margins with a data-center-capex-dependent tail. My fair value band is $1,150-1,350 (roughly 28-32x a normalized $42-45 EPS assuming margins settle at 11-12% not 13.5%, with 15-18% forward revenue growth). That's ~25-35% downside, not 49%. A contrarian would additionally argue: (1) the acquisition-fueled growth engine gets harder as FIX gets bigger — you can't roll up your way from $11B to $22B at the same multiples paid; (2) labor cost inflation in skilled trades has been a tailwind via pricing but flips to a margin headwind when demand cools; (3) at 25x book, any ROIC compression from acquisition dilution hits the multiple hard. The stock is overvalued but the models are directionally right for partially wrong reasons — this is a great business at a demanding price, not a bubble at a delusional price. Wait for a print-driven reset toward $1,300 or trim existing positions; don't short a compounder mid-acceleration.
GPT Reading
The raw numbers say this is an exceptional operator, but still a stock where the business quality is easier to admire than the valuation is to defend. Revenue has exploded from $3.07B in 2021 to $9.10B in 2025, and the quarterly run-rate is now far above that: the last four quarters sum to roughly $11.24B of revenue and $1.43B of net income. That is not just growth, it is acceleration in both scale and profitability. Net margin has moved from 7.8% in Q4 2024 to 13.5% in Q2 2026, and every quarter in the provided series shows sequentially higher revenue and higher earnings. A contractor delivering that kind of margin expansion while also producing $1.03B of free cash flow and carrying net cash of about $837M is rare. The balance sheet is pristine, ROE above 40% and ROIC above 60% are eye-popping, and this clearly is not a low-quality cyclical limping through a peak.
But the stock price is assuming that what has recently become true stays true for much longer than I’m comfortable underwriting. At a $61.2B market cap, investors are paying about 43x trailing net income on the annual 2025 figure and still around 43x on the more current trailing four-quarter earnings of roughly $1.43B; on sales, it is about 5.4x the latest annualized run-rate, which is an extraordinary multiple for an engineering/construction business no matter how well managed. Even giving credit for the business mix improving, this remains a project-driven contractor, not a software platform. To justify $1,739, you need either sustained 25%+ revenue growth for several more years, margins staying in the 12-14% range, or both. That is a heroic assumption set in an industry where labor availability, project timing, and customer capex can swing outcomes hard. The market is treating recent margin gains as structural and recent demand as durable; I think at least part of both is cyclical and mix-driven.
What stands out most is that the underlying operating data are so strong they can trick investors into overlooking how much future perfection is embedded. If I annualize the most recent quarter, earnings power looks closer to $1.75B, which brings the multiple down toward 35x. That sounds less insane, but only if Q2 2026 is a stable base rather than a high-water mark. For a business that historically earned $143M in 2021 and $323M in 2023, the leap to a $1.5B-$1.8B earnings power story in a few years is almost too clean. The company may deserve a premium for execution and balance sheet strength, but not a monopoly-like multiple. A great contractor can be worth a lot more than ordinary peers; it should not be worth almost any price.
The best argument against my caution is simple: normalization has been the wrong call for several years. The company has kept compounding through every “too far, too fast” objection. Revenue did not merely grow from $7.03B in 2024 to $9.10B in 2025; quarterly sales then kept climbing to $2.65B, $2.87B, and $3.27B, while net income margins expanded quarter after quarter. Free cash flow conversion is real, not adjusted fantasy. Net cash means no balance-sheet stress, and the low payout ratio gives management full flexibility for acquisitions or reinvestment. If the company truly has become the preferred scaled consolidator in mission-critical MEP work, especially in data center and high-spec industrial builds, then historical contractor valuation frameworks are too conservative. On that view, 35x-40x near-peak earnings is expensive but not absurd because the “peak” keeps resetting upward.
I still weigh it differently because valuation discipline matters most when the narrative is easiest. Even granting this is no ordinary cyclical, the stock leaves little room for ordinary project slippage or margin giveback. I would change my mind if the next few quarters prove that the current economics are durable at larger scale: specifically, if revenue sustains above $3.0B per quarter while net margin stays above 12% and free cash flow keeps tracking earnings, then the higher earnings base becomes real enough to support a meaningfully higher fair value than I assign today. Conversely, any flattening in backlog conversion that shows up as sub-$2.8B quarterly revenue or a retreat toward 9-10% net margins would expose how much of today’s price depends on peak conditions. For now, this is a phenomenal business priced like the next five years can only surprise to the upside.
Grok Reading
The numbers describe a contractor that has temporarily escaped the laws of its industry. Revenue compounded from $3.07B in 2021 to $9.10B in 2025, a 32% CAGR, while net income scaled from $143M to $1.02B—an earnings CAGR near 78%. The last six reported quarters show no exhaustion: revenue stepped from $1.83B to $3.27B and net margin climbed in a straight line from 9.2% to 13.5%. Free cash flow of $1.03B against only $155M of capex, a net cash balance sheet ($982M cash, $145M debt), ROIC of 64%, and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.06 confirm that the growth is cash-generative and unlevered. This is not a story stock inventing its economics; the operating leverage is real and still visible in the print.
What the market has done with those prints is the problem. At $1,739 the stock trades at 60x trailing earnings, 44x EV/EBITDA, 6.8x sales and 25x book. The valuation synthesis fair value near $875 implies the current price embeds roughly a 100% premium to normalized cash generation. Even if 2026 delivers something like $12B of revenue at a sustained 12–13% net margin—call it $1.5B of earnings—the forward multiple remains in the high-30s to low-40s for a mechanical and electrical contractor whose ultimate end markets remain cyclical construction and project-based. Secondary signals already flag decelerating quarterly revenue trend, unusual insider selling, and macro headwinds; those are early cracks in a multiple that assumes multi-year perfection.
The strongest counter-argument is that the data-center and AI infrastructure wave has rewritten the margin structure permanently, that FIX’s roll-up platform now carries genuine pricing power and recurring service mix, and that 30%+ top-line growth with expanding returns on capital justifies a growth-stock multiple for longer than traditional contractor models allow. A bull can point to H1 2026 already at $6.14B of revenue with margins still rising, FCF conversion above 100% of net income, and a fortress balance sheet that funds acquisition without dilution. That case is coherent; I simply weigh the historical mean-reversion of construction margins and the project-completion risk more heavily than the narrative of permanent platform monopoly. At 60x, any slowdown in award velocity or compression of the 13% net margin produces multiple compression that overwhelms the earnings growth.
I would reverse to neutral or constructive only on clear evidence that net margins stabilize above 12% through a full year of slower data-center awards, or that backlog and bookings continue to grow 25%+ after the current AI capex surge normalizes. A sustained print of $1.6B+ in annual FCF without margin give-back would also force a higher terminal multiple than the $875 anchor assumes.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Comfort Systems has executed a remarkable operating ramp: revenue from $3.07B (2021) to $9.10B (2025), gross margin from 18.3% to 24.1%, operating margin from 6.1% to 14.4%, and net income from $143M to $1.02B - roughly a 7x in four years. This is not accounting alchemy: FCF of $1.03B in 2025 matches net income, OCF/NI runs 1.45x, accruals are -4.6% of assets, and Altman Z of 11.98 sits deep in the safe zone. Balance sheet is a fortress with $982M liquid cash, $837M net cash, and self-funded growth.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Backlog composition and customer concentration (data-center hyperscaler exposure) in the 10-K
- Whether 24.1% gross margin reflects mix shift to modular/industrial or fixed-price project timing gains
- Acquisition contribution to revenue growth vs organic (Summit and other deals)
- Working capital dynamics - are billings-in-excess-of-costs inflating OCF/NI ratio
- Context for the cluster of Myers/George sales - 10b5-1 plans vs discretionary
The e2e composite fair value lands at $767 and the signal-adjusted FV at $875, implying the market is paying about 2x deserved value for FIX. Even the most generous single method (anchored-PE at $909) leaves roughly 47% downside; the EPV floor of $163 is a runaway low-end print I would set aside, but the DCF at $788 is the one to anchor on and it says the same thing as the composite. To justify $1,728 you need to believe 12%+ FCF growth compounds well past the current data-center and reshoring capex boom - a heroic extrapolation for a cyclical MEP contractor whose recent tripling of revenue is itself the cycle peak evidence.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Backlog composition and data-center concentration - what % of revenue is single-end-market
- Organic vs acquired growth split in the recent tripling
- Management commentary on 2025-26 bookings pace and pricing
- Any guidance on normalized margins post-cycle
The non-fundamental pressure on FIX is decisively positive right now. The tape is risk-on with VIX at 14.6 and the S&P at highs, and a 1.7 beta name riding a strong 'platform monopoly' narrative gets amplified by that backdrop. The story - MEP roll-up winner, record backlog, AI/data-center capex exposure, Modular tailwinds - is exactly the kind of durable-compounder-meets-AI-adjacency framing this tape rewards, and momentum (32% CAGR) is feeding on itself as a self-fulfilling flywheel. Analyst tone is uniformly constructive: estimate hikes, 'buy' reiterations, and even meta-coverage ('Wall Street bulls optimistic', 'outperformed Nvidia') that signals crowding into the name. News flow this week is a clean sweep of bullish framing with zero offsetting negative headlines. The only sentiment crack visible is the first article itself hinting analyst optimism may be 'overly' so - a tell that positioning is getting one-sided - but that is a second-derivative concern, not present pressure. Macro headwinds from 4.68% 10y and a 26 PE market are real for the broad tape but are being overridden here by the AI-capex narrative halo, which insulates data-center-levered industrials from the rate story. Net: heavy tailwind pressing this specific name.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Any crack in the data-center capex narrative (hyperscaler capex guidance cuts) - would puncture the halo fast
- A downgrade or estimate cut from a high-profile analyst breaking the unanimous bull chorus
- VIX spike above 20 or a break in the risk-on regime - high-beta names de-rate first
- Insider selling acceleration or a large secondary that signals the smart money fading the narrative
- Backlog growth deceleration in the next print - the story lives on 'record backlog' language
This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.
When we made this prediction on Aug 14, 2026, FIX was $1,727.64. We expect it to be $1,520.00 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $1,000.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 14, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.
Post-Report Due Diligence UNSETTLED
Evidence for a closer look, not a verdict — no score or designation on this page has been changed by it. Items marked material are ones where a conclusion above moves to the other side of the price.
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