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AGING Analysis Report
Aug 5, 2026
18 days ago · 100% complete
These price targets were computed from last year's numbers — and this year is going noticeably worse. Projection assumes +6.1% growth but recent quarters show operating income -252.3% YoY (through 2026-06-30) — annual-baselined fair values are likely stale-high. Until the statements catch up, read the growth-based fair values (DCF, anchored) as a best case, not a target; the EPV floor (worth with zero growth assumed) and the current market price are the trustworthy numbers right now.
NOT DEPENDABLE This report predates a filing — its financial basis has been replaced.
Report generated: Aug 5, 2026 · Filing on record since: Aug 19, 2026 · 14 days after
For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page

What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.

Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Watch · Gem Score +14 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 46 · Value -13 · Sentiment -4 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $120.25 vs $135.25 at analysis

Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable reference-name attribute you can cite):

  • profile-header / price-overview — company profile, live quote, market cap
  • extended-analysisthe core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memo
  • future-predictions — our forward price-band predictions
  • market-narrative / ai-findings / gpt-critique — narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)
  • Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers): price-history, income-trend, key-metrics, financials (statement tables), insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.

More for machine readers: site briefing at /llms.txt · any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER · raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds); every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.

Gilead Sciences Inc.

GILD NASDAQ
Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - General
Foster City, CA 94404, United States gilead.com Updated Aug 5, 12:07am
Price
$135.25
Market Cap
$167.9B
Employees
17,000
Beta
0.34
Avg Volume
7,302,552
Last Dividend
$3.22
CEO
Mr. Daniel Patrick O'Day

Gilead Sciences Inc. is a global biopharmaceutical company focused on discovering, developing, and commercializing innovative medicines for serious and life-threatening diseases. The company’s core franchise centers on therapies for HIV and viral hepatitis, including hepatitis B and C, where its antiviral portfolio remains widely used in clinical practice. Beyond infectious diseases, Gilead Sciences has expanded meaningfully into oncology, offering cell therapies such as CAR-T treatments for certain blood cancers and antibody-drug conjugates used in breast and bladder cancer care. It also maintains programs in liver diseases, inflammatory conditions, and respiratory disorders, aiming to address areas of high unmet medical need. Headquartered in Foster City, California, and founded in 1987, Gilead Sciences plays a significant role in the healthcare sector by supplying advanced therapeutics to hospitals, clinics, and healthcare systems worldwide, often in collaboration with research institutions and commercial partners.

Runs with full report Generated: Aug 5, 2026 12:17am
Price Overview
Price at report time
$135.25
as of Aug 5, 12:26am (18d ago)
Change · Aug 5
+4.10 (+3.13%)
Day Range
$129.54 – $135.57
52-Week Range
$108.46 – $157.29
50-Day MA
$129.84
200-Day MA
$131.92
Volume
10,078,462.00
Right now · live
Log in to get the live feed
Members see the real-time price and the move since this report (over 18d).
Share Structure
Outstanding 1,242,000,000.00
Float 1,238,826,005.00
Free Float 99.7%
High free float — 99.7% of shares trade freely, ~0.3% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Aug 5, 2026 12:31am (18d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Aug 1, 2026 5:01pm (22d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
TD Twelve Data statement HEX SEC filing
Industry comparison last run: Aug 5, 2026 12:15am
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
HEX
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
19.95
Stock Price: $135.25
EPS (Diluted): 6.78
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
HEX
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
7.50
Stock Price: $135.25
Total Equity: $22.62B
Shares: 1,255,000,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
HEX
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
17.84
Market Cap: $167.92B
Total Debt: $24.94B
Cash: $7.56B
EBITDA: $10.39B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
HEX
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$185.4B
Market Cap: $167.92B
Total Debt: $24.94B
Cash: $7.56B
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
HEX
Gross Profit / Revenue
78.8%
Gross Profit: $23.21B
Revenue: $29.44B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
HEX
Operating Income / Revenue
34.0%
Operating Income: $10.02B
Revenue: $29.44B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
HEX
Net Income / Revenue
28.9%
Net Income: $8.51B
Revenue: $29.44B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
HEX
Net Income / Total Equity
37.6%
Net Income: $8.51B
Total Equity: $22.62B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
HEX
NOPAT / Invested Capital
21.8%
Operating Income: $10.02B
Tax Rate: 13.1%
Equity: $22.62B
Total Debt: $24.94B
Cash: $7.56B
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
HEX
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
1.55
Current Assets: $18.34B
Current Liabilities: $11.81B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
HEX
Total Debt / Total Equity
1.10
Short-Term Debt: $2.81B
Long-Term Debt: $22.13B
Total Debt: $24.94B
Total Equity: $22.62B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
HEX
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$23.46
Revenue: $29.44B
Shares: 1,255,000,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
HEX
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$18.02
Total Equity: $22.62B
Shares: 1,255,000,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
HEX
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$7.53
Operating CF: $10.02B
CapEx: -$563.00M
Shares: 1,255,000,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
TD
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
2.4%
Last Dividend: $3.22
Stock Price: $135.25
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
HEX
Dividends Paid / Net Income
47.0%
Dividends Paid: -$4.00B
Net Income: $8.51B
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Aug 5, 2026 12:15am
Compares GILD against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 1, 2026 5:01pm (22d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $27.3B $27.3B $27.1B $28.8B $29.4B
Cost of Revenue $6.6B $5.7B $6.5B $6.3B $6.2B
Gross Profit $20.7B $21.6B $20.6B $22.5B $23.2B
Operating Expenses $10.8B $14.3B $13.0B $20.8B $13.2B
Operating Income $9.9B $7.3B $7.6B $1.7B $10.0B
Net Income $6.2B $4.6B $5.7B $480.0M $8.5B
EBITDA $10.2B $7.7B $8.0B $2.0B $10.4B
EPS $4.96 $3.66 $4.54 $0.38 $6.84
EPS (Diluted) $4.93 $3.64 $4.50 $0.38 $6.78
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 1, 2026 12:03am (22d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $5.3B $5.4B $6.1B $10.0B $7.6B
Total Current Assets $14.8B $14.4B $16.1B $19.2B $18.3B
Total Assets $68.0B $63.2B $62.1B $59.0B $59.0B
Current Liabilities $11.6B $11.2B $11.3B $12.0B $11.8B
Long-Term Debt $25.2B $23.0B $23.2B $24.9B $22.1B
Total Liabilities $46.9B $42.0B $39.4B $39.7B $36.4B
Total Equity $21.1B $21.2B $22.7B $19.2B $22.6B
Retained Earnings $16.3B $15.7B $16.3B $11.5B $13.7B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 1, 2026 5:01pm (22d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $11.4B $9.1B $8.0B $10.8B $10.0B
Capital Expenditure -$579.0M -$728.0M -$585.0M -$523.0M -$563.0M
Free Cash Flow $10.8B $8.3B $7.4B $10.3B $9.5B
Acquisitions (net) -$1.4B -$1.8B -$1.2B -$4.8B -$1.1B
Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) -$4.8B $0
Dividends Paid -$3.6B -$3.7B -$3.8B -$3.9B -$4.0B
Stock Buybacks -$546.0M -$1.4B -$1.0B -$1.2B -$1.9B
Net Change in Cash -$659.0M $74.0M $673.0M $3.9B -$2.4B
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 1, 2026 5:01pm (22d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth -0.1% -0.6% +6.0% +2.4%
Gross Profit Growth +4.4% -4.7% +9.1% +3.1%
Operating Income Growth -26.1% +3.8% -78.1% +503.0%
Net Income Growth -26.2% +23.4% -91.5% +1,672.9%
EBITDA Growth -25.3% +4.0% -74.3% +408.7%
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 1, 2026 12:03am (22d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-06-15 $0.82
2026-03-13 $0.82
2025-12-15 $0.79
2025-09-15 $0.79
2025-06-13 $0.79
2025-03-14 $0.79
2024-12-13 $0.77
2024-09-13 $0.77
2024-06-14 $0.77
2024-03-14 $0.77
2023-12-14 $0.75
2023-09-14 $0.75
2023-06-14 $0.75
2023-03-14 $0.75
2022-12-14 $0.73
2022-09-14 $0.73
2022-06-14 $0.73
2022-03-14 $0.73
2021-12-14 $0.71
2021-09-14 $0.71
0Company Classification 1Industry Landscape 2Company Momentum 3Forward Projection 4aDCF Valuation 4bEarnings Power Value 4cAnchored PE 4dReverse DCF 4eRevenue-Based DCF 4fAnchored P/S 4gScenario Analysis 4hDividend Discount Model 4iBook Value Analysis 4jInsider Activity 4fCash Flow Quality 4gDebt Maturity Risk 4hMacro Environment 4iSector Intelligence 4jRevenue Confidence 4kSensitivity Analysis 4lSector Demand Cycle 5AI Investigation 5bThesis Evaluation 6Valuation Synthesis
computed not applicable not yet run 17 computed · 6 not applicable · 1 not yet run
Risk : Reward — if the last quarter repeats
Live · as of 2026-08-19 08:54
-0.2 : 1 recovery upside vs repeat-quarter downside
Even the bull case prices 20% below today — the ratio here measures the model-vs-market gap, not payoff odds. Another quarter like the worst recent one costs 100%. Caveat: the company is pre-profit — scenario margins are a glide-path assumption, not a track record.
CaseGrowthMarginFair valuevs price ($135.25)
Bull — recovery +9% 30.8% $107.71 -20%
Base — stabilizes +6% 26.7% $83.88 -38%
Bear — keeps slipping +3% 22.7% $63.53 -53%
Stress — last quarter repeats +10% -10.6% $0.00 -100%
The next quarters keep the trajectory of the worst recent matched quarter (ending 2026-06-30) — growth stays at 10.2% and margins bend by the same profit-vs-revenue ratio (×0.50). Stress is a trajectory, not a prediction — it answers "what if the ship's current heading simply continues," which history says is the case to respect.
Why this is appearing: this company files quarterly, so its recent trajectory could be measured rather than assumed — the engine matched Jun 2026, Mar 2026 against the same quarters one year earlier and found revenue +7.4% · operating income -265.7% · net income -358.8% year-over-year. That measured heading is what the stress case extends forward. Of those, the stress case extends the worst matched quarter — the one ending Jun 30, 2026 (revenue +10.2%, operating income -520.1% YoY) — not the average. Data measured through Jun 30, 2026 — this card recalculates automatically when the next quarterly filing is ingested. Companies without quarterly filings (many foreign listings) never show this card: with no measured trajectory, there is nothing honest to repeat.
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for GILD — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
Independent analyst synthesis · claude-opus-4-7 · generated 2026-08-05 00:30:21
Verdict Fairly valued to slightly rich at $135 — fair value $125-135 on normalized earnings; no edge without lenacapavir de-risking, wait for sub-$120 or a pipeline catalyst.

Looking at the raw quarterly cadence first: revenue has walked from $6.95B (Q2'24) to $6.96B (Q1'26) — that's essentially flat, and the reported 4.2% revenue CAGR is flattered by the 2021-2025 comp window. Q1'26 at $6.96B is actually *down* from Q4'25's $7.93B (seasonal, but the year-over-year read is +4.4% vs Q1'25's $6.67B, so real but modest). The eye-catching "earnings CAGR 22.6%" and "recent earnings YoY 1673%" are noise — 2024 GAAP NI was crushed to $480M by the CymaBay/IPR&D writedowns that also tanked operating income to $1.66B on $28.75B revenue. Normalize that and you get a company earning roughly $8-9B annually on ~$29B revenue with 34% operating margins in clean years. That's the actual baseline, not the growth story the momentum table implies.

On valuation, 19.9x P/E, 6.3x EV/revenue, and 17.8x EV/EBITDA are *not* cheap for a business compounding revenue at 2-4%. The synthesis's $136.89 signal-adjusted fair value essentially says "priced correctly" — I agree with the number but disagree with the "slight upside" framing. At 5% FCF yield ($9.46B FCF on $167.9B cap) with $24.94B debt against $7.56B cash (net debt ~$17.4B, so EV ~$185B and FCF yield on EV closer to 5.1%), you're being paid a mid-single-digit yield to underwrite the Biktarvy 2033 cliff, lenacapavir launch execution, and an oncology segment (Trodelvy, Kite) that has repeatedly disappointed. ROE of 37.6% and ROIC of 21.8% look pristine but are inflated by buyback-shrunken equity ($22.6B) and the goodwill impairments already taken. This is a fair-value stock, not a bargain.

Where I push back on the prior models: the Market Forces layer calls this "Market Tailwinds" and the Pre-Flight talks up oncology optionality — but the Thesis Evaluation's -4 score (bear mass slightly exceeds bull) is closer to my read, and it directly contradicts the tailwind framing. The two insider sales on 2026-07-15 (unnamed, tiny 3,000-share lots) are correctly flagged neutral but worth noting there's zero insider buying on a stock that pulled back from $157 to $135 — if management saw a bargain, we'd expect at least token accumulation. Debt/equity at 1.10x is manageable but not fortress; current ratio 1.55 is fine. The narrative layer's "anchored, minimal intensity, no premium/discount" call is the most honest read in the file — this is a bond-substitute pharma and should be valued as one. The contrarian argument I'd actually make is bearish, not bullish: if lenacapavir PrEP pricing gets compressed by payers (very live risk given the $28K/year ask vs. generic TDF), the 68-weight bull pillar collapses and you're left owning a declining HIV franchise at 20x earnings with a patent cliff five years out. The bull case requires lenacapavir to *both* land commercially *and* have Trodelvy expand meaningfully — two independent execution bets, not one.

Net: I dissent modestly from the "slight upside" verdict and land on fairly valued with a bearish tilt. Fair value in the $125-135 range on 15-17x normalized $8.5B NI plus a modest oncology option premium; current $135.25 sits at the top of that. The 2.38% dividend yield with 47% payout ratio gives you downside cushion but caps upside — this doesn't re-rate higher without lenacapavir data beats or a Trodelvy label win, neither of which is imminent. I'd want $115-120 to take a real position, and I'd trim above $150. The synthesis models are directionally reasonable but the "tailwinds" and "slight upside" framings are one notch too optimistic given the flat revenue trajectory and unrewarded execution risk on the two catalysts that matter.

GPT Reading
Independent reading · gpt-5.4 · generated 2026-08-05 00:30:41
Verdict Slightly overvalued at $135 — quality cash flows are real, but a low-single-digit growth pharma with franchise-risk deserves closer to $115-$125 absent clearer evidence of durable post-HIV growth.

At $135, Gilead looks more expensive than the “steady compounder” label implies. The raw business is good: 2025 revenue reached $29.44B, up from $28.75B in 2024 and roughly flat-to-up versus the $27.1B-$27.3B range of 2021-2023, while free cash flow was a robust $9.46B on just $563M of capex. Gross margin at 78.8% and operating cash flow of $10.02B show the core franchise still throws off real money. But the key point is that this is not a business compounding top line at a rate that deserves much optimism premium. Quarterly revenue has run $6.67B, $7.08B, $7.77B, $7.93B, then back to $6.96B in the latest quarter; that’s stable, not accelerating. Latest-quarter revenue growth of about 4.3% year over year versus the $6.67B quarter a year earlier is perfectly respectable for mature pharma, but it does not scream that the market should pay nearly 20x earnings, 5.8x sales, and 17.8x EV/EBITDA for a company with obvious patent and portfolio-transition risk.

What stands out most is how much of the “earnings recovery” is really just normalization after a terrible 2024 profit year. Net income went from only $480M in 2024 to $8.51B in 2025, which makes momentum metrics look explosive, but the five-year context matters: 2021 net income was $6.23B, 2022 was $4.59B, 2023 was $5.67B. So 2025 is not evidence of a new earnings regime; it is more a rebound to a level somewhat better than historical norms. The same issue shows up in quarterly margins. 2025-03 posted just 19.7% net margin, then 27.7%, then an unusually high 39.3%, then 27.5%, and the latest quarter came in at 29%. That is healthy, but not cleanly trending upward. If anything, Gilead is demonstrating resilience rather than step-change growth. For a resilience story, a 2.4% dividend yield is fine but not compelling enough by itself to support a rich multiple when net debt is still roughly $17.4B and debt/equity is 1.10.

The balance sheet and cash generation argue against a bearish disaster case, but they do not argue for paying up. Equity is only $22.62B against a $167.9B market cap, hence the 7.5x price/book; that’s not a problem in pharma by itself, but it underscores that investors are valuing future cash flows heavily and leaving little room for disappointment. On 2025 free cash flow of $9.46B, the stock trades at roughly a 5.6% FCF yield. For a company growing revenue low single digits and facing eventual exclusivity cliffs in its most important franchise, that feels closer to fair-to-full than cheap. The market seems to be giving substantial credit for pipeline durability and oncology optionality already. I don’t see enough in the provided numbers to say that credit is unearned entirely, but I do think the valuation synthesis calling this basically fair is too forgiving because it treats normalized profitability as if it were securely repeatable while the top line remains merely stable.

The best argument against my skepticism is straightforward: this company may deserve a premium because very few mega-cap biopharmas combine 79% gross margins, 34% operating margins, $10B of operating cash flow, and recent quarterly net margins around 27%-29% with only modest capital intensity. If 2024 was the aberration and 2025 is the real baseline, then a sub-20x P/E is not stretched for a defensive healthcare name with ROIC above 21%, a manageable payout ratio near 47%, and clear room to keep funding R&D, buybacks, and the dividend. A bull would also note that revenue has not rolled over despite the market’s constant anxiety about franchise aging, and that the move from $28.75B to $29.44B annual revenue plus improved profitability suggests management is executing better than bears allow. I weigh that differently because the valuation already assumes the base business remains durable; investors are not buying Gilead at a distressed multiple where mere stability creates upside.

What would change my mind is evidence that the business can grow through its transition rather than simply milk legacy assets. Specifically, I’d want to see at least two to three consecutive quarters above $7.5B of revenue excluding obvious one-offs, with net income margins holding above 28% and annualized free cash flow tracking above $10B sustainably. That would support a case that 2025 was the start of a higher earnings plateau, not a rebound year. On the downside, if revenue slips back toward the $27B-$28B annual band or quarterly net margins fall back into the teens, the stock would look plainly over-earning versus its multiple. At $135, I think fair value is nearer $115-$125 unless growth evidence becomes more concrete.

Grok Reading
Independent reading · grok-4.5 · generated 2026-08-05 00:31:27
Verdict Fairly valued near $135–137; 5.6% FCF yield and restored 29% net margins fully priced for a 4% grower

Gilead’s 2025 numbers restore the picture the 2024 collapse temporarily obscured. Revenue of $29.44B grew only 2.4% year-over-year, consistent with the 4.2% multi-year CAGR, but operating income snapped back to $10.02B and net income to $8.51B—margins of 34% and 29% that sit at the top of the five-year range and reverse the $1.66B operating-income trough of 2024. Free cash flow of $9.46B on just $563M of capex produces a 5.6% FCF yield at the $168B enterprise and a clean 32% FCF conversion rate; ROIC of 22% and ROE of 38% confirm the capital base is still highly productive. Quarterly run-rates remain orderly: the last four quarters averaged roughly $7.4B in sales with net margins oscillating between 20% and 39%, the March 2026 print of $6.96B and 29% margin looking like a normal seasonal trough rather than deterioration. At 20× trailing earnings, 5.8× sales and 18× EV/EBITDA the market is simply capitalizing that cash-engine multiple with almost no growth premium, which matches the 2% dividend and 47% payout.

The story the raw data tell is therefore a high-quality mature earner whose true earning power reasserted itself once one-time charges rolled off. Net debt of roughly $17B against $9.5B of annual FCF is manageable, the current ratio of 1.55 is adequate, and the balance-sheet leverage (D/E 1.10) does not constrain the dividend or modest buybacks. Insider sales of a few thousand shares are noise. The valuation synthesis landing at $137 versus the $135 print is directionally correct; the stock is priced as a bond substitute with HIV cash flows and a modest oncology call option.

The strongest counter-argument is that 20× earnings and 18× EBITDA are not cheap for a company whose top line is stuck at low-single-digit growth and whose core franchise faces a well-telegraphed Biktarvy exclusivity cliff. A smart bear would note that 2025’s $8.5B net income is a peak-cycle print after an artificially depressed base, that hepatitis C continues to shrink, and that Trodelvy plus the CAR-T franchise have yet to demonstrate they can replace HIV dollars at equivalent margins. If lenacapavir PrEP uptake disappoints or oncology remains subscale, the multiple compresses toward 15–16× and the stock’s downside opens toward the mid-$100s. I weigh this less heavily because the FCF durability and 79% gross margin give Gilead more time and optionality than a typical patent-cliff story, but the growth scarcity is real and keeps me from calling the name cheap.

I would flip to a clear undervalued stance on two consecutive quarters of revenue growth above 6% driven by measurable lenacapavir contribution, or on Trodelvy earlier-line breast-cancer data that lifts oncology run-rate by $1B-plus annually. Conversely, any explicit guidance cut tied to Biktarvy erosion or a clinical setback that removes the long-acting HIV/PrEP narrative would push me to overvalued and a mid-teens multiple.

Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Each AI above independently stated a direction (undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued) and how strongly it believes it (conviction, 0–5). We combine those into a Bull-Bear Index on a 0–10 scale: 5 is neutral, 10 is maximum bullish (undervalued at full conviction), 0 is maximum bearish. We compute the score ourselves with the same arithmetic for every seat — the models never grade their own bullishness — so the three are directly comparable. Δ shows how far each seat sits from the panel average of 4.0; a large Δ marks the dissenting voice, usually the one worth reading.
Claude claude-opus-4-7 5.0
fairly valued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +1.0 vs panel · self: 4.0
GPT gpt-5.4 2.0
overvalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ -2.0 vs panel · self: 4.0
Grok grok-4.5 5.0
fairly valued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +1.0 vs panel · self: 5.0
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-08-05 01:27:28
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality - wait for a dip 7/10
Great cash engine at a fair price with a flat tape - patient watch, no urgency to own here.
The cruxWhether the market gives you a low-$110s entry before the HIV cliff narrative gets refreshed - that gap between price and margin of safety is the whole trade.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from GILD's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionStable Share Count
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The four lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+46
Strong
edge √Σ 136 · risk √Σ 87 · conf 8/10

Gilead prints roughly $9-10B of free cash flow annually on $27-29B of revenue, with gross margins parked in the high 70s (78.8% in 2025) and a 2025 operating margin of 34%. Earnings quality checks are pristine: accruals -7.7% of assets, OCF/NI 5.79x, Beneish M -2.45, Altman Z 4.29. Share count has been flat-to-down (diluted CAGR -0.1%) with buybacks running ~160% of SBC and SBC only 3% of revenue - management is protecting per-share value. The 2024 operating margin collapse to 5.8% and net income of $480M is the one glaring anomaly in the tape, but FCF that year was still $10.3B and 2025 reverted to $8.5B net income at 34% op margin, consistent with a large non-cash IPR&D or acquisition-related charge rather than an operating deterioration. Balance sheet is the softest spot: net cash is -$17.3B against $7.6B liquid, so debt is a real constraint, but $9B+ annual FCF services it comfortably. Insider tape is immaterial (two small routine sales). Overall this is a durable, well-run mature earner with no forensic red flags but also no fortress balance sheet and a revenue base that has been effectively flat for five years ($27.3B to $29.4B).

Strengths 4
m78
Elite earnings quality signals
OCF/NI of 5.79x, accruals -7.7% of assets, Beneish M -2.45, Altman Z 4.29 - mechanical checks show no manipulation flags and cash conversion well exceeds reported earnings.
m72
Consistent heavy FCF generation
FCF of $10.8B, $8.3B, $7.4B, $10.3B, $9.5B across 2021-2025 on flat revenue - the cash engine is stable and independent of the noisy GAAP net income line.
m65
Disciplined capital return, no dilution
Diluted shares flat at 1.26B for five straight years; buybacks are 159.6% of SBC and SBC is only 3% of revenue. Per-share value is being protected.
m55
Pharma-grade gross margins
Gross margin 75.8% to 78.8% across the period, indicating durable pricing power on the core HIV/oncology/HCV portfolio.
Concerns 3
m55
Net debt of $17.3B
Liquid cash only $7.6B against materially larger debt load; cash/mktcap of 4.5%. Serviceable given FCF but this is a leveraged balance sheet, not a cushion.
m50
Revenue stagnation
Revenue essentially flat: $27.31B (2021) to $29.44B (2025), roughly 1.5% CAGR. Durability is present but growth is not - suggests pipeline/portfolio treading water.
m45
2024 operating margin anomaly
Operating margin cratered to 5.8% in 2024 with net income of just $480M, while FCF stayed at $10.3B. Likely a large non-cash charge (IPR&D/impairment) but worth verifying the nature and whether it recurs.
This is a textbook mature pharma earner - not exciting, not broken. The forensic signals are as clean as they come: cash flow crushes reported earnings, the share count is a straight line, and the accrual/Beneish/Z checks all clear easily. What keeps me from grading higher is the combination of a leveraged balance sheet ($17B net debt), five years of essentially flat revenue, and one very ugly GAAP year in 2024 that I want to understand better even though the cash line shrugged it off. Business quality is Strong, not Fortress - a durable cash machine that needs to prove it can grow again.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Nature of the 2024 operating margin collapse - was it an IPR&D charge tied to CymaBay or similar M&A, and is it truly non-recurring?
  • Debt maturity schedule and weighted average coupon on the ~$25B gross debt stack
  • HIV franchise (Biktarvy) concentration as a share of revenue and loss-of-exclusivity timing
  • Pipeline contribution: lenacapavir launch trajectory and oncology (Trodelvy) growth to offset flat top line
  • Whether the two July 2026 insider sales were 10b5-1 scheduled or discretionary
Valuation / Mispricing
-13
Fairly Valued
edge √Σ 50 · risk √Σ 63 · conf 7/10
Price $135.25 vs signal-adjusted deserved ~$137, ~1% margin - essentially fair; would need low-$110s to offer a real cushion. attractive below $115.00

The composite fair value of $116.26 sits ~14% below the $135.25 price, but the signal-adjusted FV of $136.89 lands almost exactly on the tape (1% upside). The DCF at $138.56 and anchored P/E at $132.82 cluster tightly around the current quote, telling a consistent story: the market has priced this mature pharma about right. The EPV floor of $55 is a runaway low-end input (it implies zero credit for the pipeline or franchise durability) and should be discounted, not treated as the base case. Earnings quality is clean, so no haircut is warranted; the strong-quality lens supports the deserved value rather than pushing it higher. What's priced in is the steady-compounder story: durable HIV cash flows, manageable patent cliffs, oncology optionality that offsets but doesn't accelerate. For this to be cheap, you'd need pipeline surprises or margin expansion the tape isn't giving credit for; for it to be rich, you'd need the bear's value-trap thesis (HIV generic erosion outrunning oncology) to bite. Neither is obvious, so the honest read is: fair.

Cheap signals 2
m40
Composite FV modestly below price
Composite $116.26 implies ~14% downside, but it's pulled down by an EPV floor of $55 that ignores pipeline value; the more reliable DCF ($138.56) and anchored P/E ($132.82) bracket the current price.
m30
Clean earnings quality supports the print
High earnings quality (score 3) means no haircut to deserved value; cash flow exceeds reported earnings, so the DCF anchor at $138.56 is trustworthy rather than optimistic.
Rich / priced-in 2
m52
No margin of safety at spot
Signal-adjusted FV of $136.89 vs $135.25 price leaves ~1% upside - you are paying deserved value with no cushion for HIV generic risk or pipeline stumbles.
m35
EPV floor is a red flag on downside
The $55 EPV suggests that if growth optionality is stripped out entirely, the business is worth less than half of spot - a reminder that a lot of the price rests on pipeline execution, not just today's cash flows.
This is a fairly-valued mature pharma - I'd need it in the low $110s before the risk/reward actually tilts my way. At $135 you're paying full deserved value for a steady compounder with a real HIV cliff hanging over it. The DCF and anchored P/E both landing within a few dollars of spot tells me the market has done its homework here; there's no obvious mispricing to exploit. Not a short, not a buy - a watch.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • HIV franchise erosion pace vs. lenacapavir uptake in next guidance update
  • Oncology segment (Trodelvy, CAR-T) growth trajectory and margin contribution
  • Any one-time charges distorting the ugly GAAP quarter flagged by quality lens
  • Capital return pace - buyback tempo vs. debt paydown priorities
General Sentiment
-4
Balanced
tail √Σ 48 · head √Σ 52 · conf 6/10

GILD sits in a quiet sentiment pocket. The active narrative is a low-intensity, durable steady-compounder read - no cult, no mania, no collapse - so there is very little narrative energy pushing the tape either way. Q2 2026 print was constructive: 10% base business growth, PrEP/Yeztugo doubling to $1B, raised HIV guidance, revenue beat. That is a mild positive drip, but the stock 'edged lower' post-print and remains 'in a downtrend' per the news flow, which tells you the buy-side is not chasing and the acquisition-driven EPS loss muddied the headline. The AHF 'Corporate Welfare King' piece adds a small reputational nag but is not a real pressure. With beta 0.34, the risk-on tape barely touches this name - macro is essentially neutral here. Higher rates and a 26.9 market PE are a mild background headwind for defensive pharma (bond-proxy dynamic), but Gilead's cash yield cushions it. Net: fundamentals slightly better than the story, narrative is inert, tape is neutral-to-mildly-positive on the print, downtrend in the chart says positioning is unenthused. Balanced with a very faint tailwind lean.

Tailwinds 2
m38
Solid Q2 beat with raised HIV guidance
Revenue beat by ~6%, PrEP doubled to $1B, full-year HIV guidance raised. Real but modest positive news pulse for a name that trades on cash flow reliability.
m30
Durable defensive narrative in a rate-worried tape
Steady-compounder archetype with low cult and high durability means no story to break. In a market fretting about 4.7% 10y and PE 26.9, boring cash generators quietly attract rotation flow.
Headwinds 4
m35
Stock in a downtrend despite the beat
News explicitly notes GILD edged lower after the print and remains in a downtrend - positioning and momentum tape are unenthused, suggesting sellers into strength.
m28
Acquisition-driven EPS loss muddies headline
Reported a GAAP loss on acquisition charges; headline-scanning algos and casual readers see 'loss', which caps the sentiment lift from the underlying beat.
m22
Low-beta name gets little help from risk-on tape
Beta 0.34 means the +37 risk-on regime barely lifts GILD; high-beta biotech and growth names absorb the flow while defensive pharma is left behind.
m15
Minor reputational noise
AHF 'Corporate Welfare King' headline is background static but reinforces the bear framing of pricing/patent dependency for headline scanners.
Net pressure is near zero with a faint positive tilt. The Q2 print was genuinely good and the guide-raise gives analysts something to mark up, but the narrative is deliberately boring and the chart says holders are not excited - the stock leaked lower on a beat. A 0.34 beta means the risk-on tape does almost nothing for it, and the acquisition loss headline blunts the cash-flow story. I read this as Balanced: no dominant force in either direction, with a small tailwind from the fundamentals-vs-story asymmetry offset by an unenthusiastic tape.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Whether the post-earnings downtrend breaks or the stock rolls over into the next few sessions
  • Sell-side target revisions following the raised HIV guide
  • Any rotation signal into defensive pharma if the tape wobbles
  • Yeztugo uptake curve in next print - the one place a narrative could actually form
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
Growth Outlook
not run

This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.

The forward growth verdict — is the business itself likely to grow (next 2 quarters / year 1 / years 2–3), judged against its category and against printed expectations. The full horizon ladder + creme renders on the Growth Outlook card above. Not a call on the price (Valuation owns that) or the tape (Sentiment owns that).
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Lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure), and Growth Outlook (the forward growth verdict). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Price Prediction
About flat +3.1% v0.6.0 View full prediction →

When we made this prediction on Aug 5, 2026, GILD was $135.25. We expect it to be $139.50 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $115.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 5, 2026.

Price when predicted$135.25
Our estimate for Feb 2027$139.50+3.1%
Great value below$115.00
Price history shown (6 Months)

Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.

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My Notes personal — only you see this
v1.1.562 · 9b2927c4 · 2026-08-22 16:52:06