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AGING Analysis Report
Aug 3, 2026
20 days ago · 100% complete
NOT DEPENDABLE This report predates a filing — its financial basis has been replaced.
Report generated: Aug 3, 2026 · Filing on record since: Aug 19, 2026 · 15 days after
For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page

What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Houlihan Lokey Inc. (HLI) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.

Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Watch · Gem Score +9 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 77 · Value -46 · Sentiment 17 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $92.83 vs $122.67 at analysis

Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable reference-name attribute you can cite):

  • profile-header / price-overview — company profile, live quote, market cap
  • extended-analysisthe core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memo
  • future-predictions — our forward price-band predictions
  • market-narrative / ai-findings / gpt-critique — narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)
  • Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers): price-history, income-trend, key-metrics, financials (statement tables), insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.

More for machine readers: site briefing at /llms.txt · any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER · raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds); every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.

Houlihan Lokey Inc.

HLI NYSE
Financial Services · Capital Markets
Los Angeles, CA 90067, United States hl.com Updated Aug 3, 11:58am
Price
$121.54
Market Cap
$8.8B
Employees
2,800
Beta
0.96
Avg Volume
969,970
Last Dividend
$2.50
CEO
Mr. Scott Joseph Adelson

Houlihan Lokey Inc. is a leading global investment bank known for providing advisory services in financial restructuring, corporate finance, and financial valuation. The primary role of Houlihan Lokey is to offer expert guidance to corporations and governments in navigating complex financial situations. It is particularly renowned for its restructuring practice, having advised numerous high-profile clients on debt restructurings, distressed mergers and acquisitions, and bankruptcy situations. Houlihan Lokey serves a diverse client base that spans across various industries, including technology, healthcare, energy, and financial services, providing sector-specific knowledge and expertise to tailor solutions effectively. As a result, the firm plays a crucial role in helping clients optimize capital structures and enhance enterprise value. With its extensive global reach, Houlihan Lokey maintains a significant presence in major financial markets, positioning itself as a key player in the investment banking sector. Founded in 1972 and headquartered in Los Angeles, California, the firm has built a reputation for excellence in delivering strategic financial solutions and fostering long-term client relationships.

Runs with full report Generated: Aug 3, 2026 12:10pm
Price Overview
Price at report time
$121.85
as of Aug 3, 12:15pm (20d ago)
Change · Aug 3
-3.64 (-2.90%)
Day Range
$120.39 – $127.67
52-Week Range
$112.83 – $211.78
50-Day MA
$139.23
200-Day MA
$160.71
Volume
33,076.00
Right now · live
Log in to get the live feed
Members see the real-time price and the move since this report (over 20d).
Share Structure
Outstanding 54,197,538.00
Float 54,092,814.00
Free Float 99.8%
High free float — 99.8% of shares trade freely, ~0.2% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 12:29pm (20d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 12:28pm (20d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
TD Twelve Data statement HEX SEC filing
Industry comparison last run: Aug 3, 2026 12:09pm
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
HEX
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
19.54
Stock Price: $121.54
EPS (Diluted): 6.22
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
HEX
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
3.39
Stock Price: $121.54
Total Equity: $2.45B
Shares: 68,440,032
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
HEX
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
10.07
Market Cap: $8.77B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $1.19B
EBITDA: $752.69M
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
HEX
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$7.6B
Market Cap: $8.77B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $1.19B
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
HEX
Gross Profit / Revenue
38.5%
Gross Profit: $1.01B
Revenue: $2.62B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
HEX
Operating Income / Revenue
23.6%
Operating Income: $618.54M
Revenue: $2.62B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
HEX
Net Income / Revenue
16.3%
Net Income: $425.70M
Revenue: $2.62B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
HEX
Net Income / Total Equity
17.4%
Net Income: $425.70M
Total Equity: $2.45B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
HEX
NOPAT / Invested Capital
36.9%
Operating Income: $618.54M
Tax Rate: 24.6%
Equity: $2.45B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $1.19B
Zero debt — invested capital = equity minus cash (very efficient)
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
HEX
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
Current Assets: N/A
Current Liabilities: N/A
Missing from API: Current Assets, Current Liabilities
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
HEX
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.00
Short-Term Debt: $0.00
Long-Term Debt: $0.00
Total Debt: $0.00
Total Equity: $2.45B
Zero debt — this company carries no debt obligations. Strongest possible score.
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
HEX
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$38.25
Revenue: $2.62B
Shares: 68,440,032
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
HEX
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$35.84
Total Equity: $2.45B
Shares: 68,440,032
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
HEX
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$9.96
Operating CF: $704.13M
CapEx: -$22.31M
Shares: 68,440,032
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
TD
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
2.1%
Last Dividend: $2.50
Stock Price: $121.54
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
HEX
Dividends Paid / Net Income
40.9%
Dividends Paid: -$174.04M
Net Income: $425.70M
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Aug 3, 2026 12:09pm
Compares HLI against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 12:28pm (20d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Revenue $2.3B $1.8B $1.9B $2.4B $2.6B
Cost of Revenue $1.4B $1.1B $1.2B $1.5B $1.6B
Gross Profit $861.3M $661.6M $700.8M $919.9M $1.0B
Operating Expenses $248.5M $319.8M $338.0M $363.6M $389.2M
Operating Income $612.9M $341.7M $362.9M $556.3M $618.5M
Net Income $437.8M $254.2M $280.3M $399.7M $425.7M
EBITDA $661.4M $400.0M $391.4M $652.4M $752.7M
EPS $6.74 $4.01 $4.36 $6.08 $6.40
EPS (Diluted) $6.41 $3.76 $4.11 $5.82 $6.22
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 11:58am (20d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Cash & Equivalents $833.7M $714.4M $721.2M $971.0M $1.2B
Total Current Assets
Total Assets $2.9B $3.0B $3.2B $3.8B $4.3B
Current Liabilities
Long-Term Debt
Total Liabilities $1.4B $1.4B $1.3B $1.6B $1.9B
Total Equity $1.4B $1.6B $1.8B $2.2B $2.5B
Retained Earnings $922.2M $1.0B $1.2B $1.4B $1.6B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 12:28pm (20d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Operating Cash Flow $736.6M $136.3M $328.5M $848.6M $704.1M
Capital Expenditure -$8.7M -$50.7M -$66.7M -$39.7M -$22.3M
Free Cash Flow $727.9M $85.5M $261.7M $808.9M $681.8M
Acquisitions (net) -$361.0M -$20.4M -$3.9M -$69.2M -$2.5M
Net Debt Issued / (Repaid)
Dividends Paid -$114.8M -$140.4M -$148.5M -$165.2M -$174.0M
Stock Buybacks -$304.8M -$48.7M -$25.0M -$52.5M -$175.4M
Net Change in Cash -$13.2M -$119.3M $7.0M $253.7M $218.3M
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 12:28pm (20d ago)
Metric 2023 2024 2025 2026
Revenue Growth -20.3% +5.8% +24.8% +9.5%
Gross Profit Growth -23.2% +5.9% +31.3% +9.5%
Operating Income Growth -44.2% +6.2% +53.3% +11.2%
Net Income Growth -41.9% +10.3% +42.6% +6.5%
EBITDA Growth -39.5% -2.1% +66.7% +15.4%
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 11:58am (20d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-06-01 $0.70
2026-03-02 $0.60
2025-12-01 $0.60
2025-09-02 $0.60
2025-06-02 $0.60
2025-03-03 $0.57
2024-12-02 $0.57
2024-09-03 $0.57
2024-06-03 $0.57
2024-02-29 $0.55
2023-11-30 $0.55
2023-08-31 $0.55
2023-06-01 $0.55
2023-03-01 $0.53
2022-12-01 $0.53
2022-09-01 $0.53
2022-06-01 $0.53
2022-03-01 $0.43
2021-12-01 $0.43
2021-09-01 $0.43
0Company Classification 1Industry Landscape 2Company Momentum 3Forward Projection 4aDCF Valuation 4bEarnings Power Value 4cAnchored PE 4dReverse DCF 4eRevenue-Based DCF 4fAnchored P/S 4gScenario Analysis 4hDividend Discount Model 4iBook Value Analysis 4jInsider Activity 4fCash Flow Quality 4gDebt Maturity Risk 4hMacro Environment 4iSector Intelligence 4jRevenue Confidence 4kSensitivity Analysis 4lSector Demand Cycle 5AI Investigation 5bThesis Evaluation 6Valuation Synthesis
computed not applicable 18 computed · 6 not applicable
Risk : Reward — if the last quarter repeats
Live · as of 2026-08-19 08:56
-0.7 : 1 recovery upside vs repeat-quarter downside
Even the bull case prices 52% below today — the ratio here measures the model-vs-market gap, not payoff odds. Another quarter like the worst recent one costs 73%. Caveat: revenue-DCF fits financials poorly (reported revenue omits net interest) — treat the legs as rough.
CaseGrowthMarginFair valuevs price ($122.67)
Bull — recovery -2% 18.5% $59.38 -52%
Base — stabilizes -3% 16.1% $49.93 -59%
Bear — keeps slipping -5% 13.7% $41.30 -66%
Stress — last quarter repeats -16% 16.5% $33.05 -73%
The next quarters keep the trajectory of the most recent ones — growth stays at -15.5% and margins bend by the same profit-vs-revenue ratio (×1.03). Stress is a trajectory, not a prediction — it answers "what if the ship's current heading simply continues," which history says is the case to respect.
Why this is appearing: this company files quarterly, so its recent trajectory could be measured rather than assumed — the engine matched Jun 2026 against the same quarter one year earlier and found revenue -15.5% · operating income -13.3% · net income -20.4% year-over-year. That measured heading is what the stress case extends forward. Data measured through Jun 30, 2026 — this card recalculates automatically when the next quarterly filing is ingested. Companies without quarterly filings (many foreign listings) never show this card: with no measured trajectory, there is nothing honest to repeat.
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for HLI — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
Independent analyst synthesis · claude-opus-4-7 · generated 2026-08-03 12:27:30
Verdict Fairly valued near $121 — great business (37% ROIC, net cash, 97% FCF conversion) but Q4 sequential deceleration and FY22 cycle-top parallel argue against paying up; buy zone $95-105, trim above $140.

Starting with the raw tape: HLI put up $2.62B in FY26 (March year-end) versus $1.81B two years prior — that's 44% growth off the FY24 trough, with operating margins rebuilding from 19.0% (FY24) to 23.6% (FY26) and net income nearly doubling from $254M to $426M. The quarterly cadence, however, matters more than the annual print: revenue peaked at $717M in the December 2025 quarter and then dropped to $636M in March 2026, with net margin compressing from 17.0% (Sep-25) to 15.7% (Mar-26). That's a decelerating trajectory, not an accelerating one, and the trailing "37% growth" narrative the thesis-eval layer leans on is a rearview number. Balance sheet is pristine — $1.19B cash, zero debt, $682M FCF on $704M OCF (97% conversion) — and ROIC of 37% confirms this is a genuinely high-quality fee business, not a leveraged rollup pretending to be one.

Valuation math: at $121.54 and $8.77B market cap, EV is roughly $7.6B net of cash. On TTM net income around $426M that's ~20.6x earnings, ~11.1x EV/FCF, and 2.9x EV/revenue. For a capital-light advisory franchise with 37% ROIC and net cash, 11x FCF is not expensive — it's cheap if FY26 earnings are anywhere near mid-cycle. It's expensive if FY26 was the peak. The FY22 comp is telling: $2.27B revenue, $438M NI at the last cycle top, followed by two years of NI in the $250-280M range. So the range of "normalized" NI is arguably $330-380M, which puts normalized P/E closer to 23-27x — not obviously cheap. The synthesis composite fair value of $139 (14% upside) is defensible but not a fat margin of safety given cycle risk.

Where I disagree with the prior stack: the Market Forces "structural competitive deterioration / aggressive accounting" call is not supported by anything in this file — 37% ROIC, 97% cash conversion, zero debt, and rebuilding margins are the opposite of a melting moat. That signal reads as boilerplate bearishness. I'm more sympathetic to the Thesis Evaluation's "cyclical peak misread as platform" bear, which is the correct framing: the question isn't whether HLI is a good business (it plainly is), it's whether FY26 earnings are the run-rate or the top. The Narrative layer's read that fundamentals do 90% of the work here is right — there's no story premium to fade, just cycle-timing risk. Insider activity is genuinely neutral (RSU vesting and trust transfers, not open-market selling of conviction). The Pre-Flight thesis that the market is pricing "prolonged subdued M&A" is questionable — at 20x trailing peak-ish earnings, the market is arguably pricing continuation, not stagnation.

A careful contrarian would note three things the bull case glosses over. First, the sequential Q4 revenue decline of 11% and margin compression of 60bps suggests the restructuring tailwind may already be rolling over as rate cuts reduce distress deal flow — restructuring is countercyclical to the M&A recovery, so the two engines don't necessarily stack. Second, FY22 shows exactly what a cycle top looks like ($2.27B / $438M NI), followed by a two-year 40% earnings decline; buying at 20x trailing after a 44% two-year revenue rebound is textbook cycle-top behavior for advisory firms. Third, the "signal-adjusted $139" fair value is doing work that's not really in the numbers — DCFs on cyclical advisory businesses are notoriously sensitive to terminal growth, and a 2.1% implied FCF growth rate is not obviously too low for a mid-cycle earner.

Net: I partially dissent from the "undervalued" verdict. This is a great business at a fair price, not a cheap price. The synthesis 14% upside is within cycle-noise range, and the recent quarterly deceleration argues against paying up before we see whether Q1/Q2 FY27 confirms rollover or re-acceleration. Fair value is probably $115-135 depending on whether you normalize on FY26 or a blend of FY22-26; current $121.54 sits inside that band. I'd own this at $95-105 with high conviction, hold it at $121 with low conviction, and trim above $140. The direction is closer to fairly_valued than undervalued.

GPT Reading
Independent reading · gpt-5.4 · generated 2026-08-03 12:27:51
Verdict Fairly valued around $121 — high-quality, cash-rich advisory franchise, but the stock already reflects a recovery to near-peak earnings; upside looks limited unless $450M+ net income becomes the new normal.

What stands out is that Houlihan Lokey is already back above its pre-downturn earnings base, but the stock is not priced like a fragile turnaround either. Fiscal 2026 revenue reached $2.62B, up 9.6% from $2.39B in 2025 and well above $1.91B in 2024; net income of $425.7M is now within 3% of the 2022 peak of $437.8M. The quarterly run-rate is healthy but not euphoric: revenue moved from $513.6M in Jun-2024 to $717.1M in Dec-2025 before easing to $635.6M in Mar-2026, while net margins stayed in a tight 15.0%-18.3% band. That consistency matters. This is not a business showing operating stress, market share collapse, or accounting-assisted earnings. Operating margin of 23.6%, ROE of 17.4%, ROIC of 36.9%, and $681.8M of free cash flow on just $22.3M of capex describe a capital-light advisory franchise with very real cash earnings. The “market headwinds” framing looks overstated against these numbers.

The more important question is whether today’s earnings are cyclical peak earnings wearing a quality multiple. On that, I think the answer is partly yes. HLI has recovered from the advisory slump impressively, but the shape of the recent data is not one of accelerating breakout growth. The most recent quarter grew revenue only 9.6% y/y and net income 6.5% y/y, slower than the full-year rebound suggests, and Mar-2026 revenue of $635.6M was down sequentially from $717.1M in Dec-2025. Annual revenue is now 15% above the 2022 prior peak, but annual net income remains slightly below that peak, implying some margin dilution as the firm scales. At $121.54, the stock trades around 19.5x earnings, 10.1x EV/EBITDA, and roughly 12.9x FCF if I use the reported $681.8M against the $8.77B market cap before net cash adjustment. That is not expensive for a debt-free, high-ROIC franchise with $1.19B of cash, but it is also not the kind of distressed multiple you’d expect if the market truly believed revenue was stuck near 2024 levels. The price looks more like a fair quality-cycle multiple on near-peak normalized earnings.

The clean balance sheet is the best part of the story and the main reason I can’t get bearish. Zero debt and $2.45B of equity give HLI unusual resilience for a people business tied to deal activity. Cash generation is stronger than the income statement alone suggests: operating cash flow of $704.1M exceeded net income of $425.7M by a wide margin, and the 40.9% payout ratio leaves room for dividends, buybacks, or hiring through a downturn. But that strength cuts both ways for valuation. A fortress balance sheet deserves a premium, and I think the stock already gets one. This is not a hidden asset story; investors can plainly see the balance sheet and cash flow. If I adjust for the $1.19B cash hoard, the enterprise value is about $7.6B, which makes the EV/revenue of 2.9x and EV/EBITDA near 10x look sensible rather than cheap for an elite boutique that is probably earning through a favorable mix of restructuring, liability management, and improved M&A sentiment.

The strongest case against my read is straightforward: the market may still be underestimating just how durable this earnings base is. From 2024 to 2026, revenue rose from $1.91B to $2.62B, a 37% jump in two years, while operating income climbed from $362.9M to $618.5M, up 70%. If that is not merely cyclical rebound but evidence of genuine share gains and a structurally larger franchise, then 19.5x earnings and about 3.2x sales are too low, especially with no leverage and a 2.1% dividend yield. A bull would also say the slight margin slippage versus 2022 is a non-issue because hiring ahead of demand depresses current margins but supports future fee growth. I weigh that argument less heavily because the recent quarter already hints at moderation, and advisory firms rarely sustain elevated compensation-adjusted profitability indefinitely when revenue normalizes. In a talent-driven model, excess returns are competed away through pay, not retained like software margins.

What would change my mind is evidence that fiscal 2026 was not just a good year but a new floor. If HLI can print another two to three quarters with revenue consistently above $650M, net margin back toward 17%-18%, and annualized net income clearly above the 2022 peak—say a path to $450M-$475M rather than $425.7M—I would move bullish and accept a fair value in the mid-$130s or better. Conversely, if revenue slips back toward the $550M-$600M quarterly range and margins fade toward 15% without offsetting buybacks or accretive hiring, the current multiple will look full and I would view fair value closer to $100-$110. Today, the numbers support a good business more than a mispriced stock.

Grok Reading
Independent reading · grok-4.5 · generated 2026-08-03 12:28:26
Verdict Undervalued quality compounder at $121.54; fair value $133–139 on fortress FCF and 10x EV/EBITDA

Houlihan Lokey’s numbers describe a high-ROIC advisory franchise that has already climbed out of the 2023–24 trough and is generating cash far in excess of reported earnings. FY2026 revenue hit a record $2.62B, up from $2.39B and $1.91B the two prior years, while free cash flow of $681.8M converted at 160% of the $425.7M net income print. Operating margin held at 23.6% and net margin at 16.3% with zero debt and $1.19B of cash against $2.45B of equity. ROIC of 36.9% and ROE of 17.4% are elite for a people business; the 19.5x trailing P/E, 10.1x EV/EBITDA and 2.9x EV/sales therefore embed very little credit for either the restructuring franchise or any normalization in M&A volumes. Sequential softness in the March quarter ($635.6M revenue, 15.7% margin versus $717.1M and 16.3% in December) is real, yet the full-year trajectory and the 16.9% revenue CAGR still point to a firm that is expanding, not stagnating. The Market Forces claim of “structural competitive deterioration and market-share losses” is simply not visible in the reported top line or the stable mid-teens net margins; if the moat were melting, these figures would already be deteriorating, not compounding.

The valuation synthesis fair-value range of roughly $133–139 versus the $121.54 print is directionally correct once the fortress balance sheet and FCF yield near 8% are layered in. A 2.1% dividend that absorbs only 41% of earnings leaves substantial capacity for buybacks or bolt-on talent acquisitions without leverage. Insider activity is noise—routine awards and a matched conversion/sale—so it neither confirms nor contradicts the fundamental picture. The business remains cyclical, but the mix of restructuring and corporate finance has historically dampened the amplitude relative to pure-play M&A boutiques, and the current multiple already prices a prolonged soft patch.

The strongest contrary case rests on two data points. First, net income of $425.7M remains below the FY2022 peak of $437.8M even though revenue is $350M higher, implying some structural margin compression or mix shift that a bull must explain away. Second, recent year-over-year revenue and earnings growth have decelerated to 9.6% and 6.5%, and the latest quarter itself declined both sequentially and versus the prior-year March quarter ($666.4M). A skeptic can fairly argue that 19.5x earnings and 3.2x sales is a full multiple for a mature earner whose growth is rolling over and whose restructuring tailwind will fade as distress normalizes. Those objections have weight; I simply assign more weight to the $682M of unlevered free cash flow, the zero-debt balance sheet, and the fact that the stock already sits 12–14% below the composite intrinsic-value estimates while peers with inferior ROIC and higher leverage trade richer.

What would flip the view is straightforward: two consecutive quarters of revenue below $600M with net margins compressing under 14%, or a sustained drop in restructuring fee contribution that drives FY2027 FCF below $500M. Conversely, a return to quarterly revenue run-rates above $700M with margins re-expanding toward 18% would force a more aggressive upside re-rating. Until then the asymmetry favors the long side at current levels.

Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Each AI above independently stated a direction (undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued) and how strongly it believes it (conviction, 0–5). We combine those into a Bull-Bear Index on a 0–10 scale: 5 is neutral, 10 is maximum bullish (undervalued at full conviction), 0 is maximum bearish. We compute the score ourselves with the same arithmetic for every seat — the models never grade their own bullishness — so the three are directly comparable. Δ shows how far each seat sits from the panel average of 6.0; a large Δ marks the dissenting voice, usually the one worth reading.
Claude claude-opus-4-7 5.0
fairly valued · conviction 3/5 · Δ -1.0 vs panel · self: 5.0
GPT gpt-5.4 5.0
fairly valued · conviction 4/5 · Δ -1.0 vs panel · self: 5.0
Grok grok-4.5 8.0
undervalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +2.0 vs panel · self: 7.0
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-08-03 13:36:54
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality - wait for a dip 7/10
Great advisory franchise at a fair price - quality is real (77), but valuation (-46) says wait; mild sentiment tailwind (+17) doesn't force my hand.
The cruxWhether HLI's $425M net income and 23.6% operating margin represent the new normal or a cycle-peak print - because at $122.67 I'm paying for continuation, not for a margin of safety.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from HLI's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionStable Share Count
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The four lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+77
Strong
edge √Σ 153 · risk √Σ 51 · conf 8/10

HLI is an advisory-led investment bank showing the hallmarks of a high-quality mature earner: $1.19B liquid cash against zero net debt, $681.8M trailing FCF, and an Altman Z of 4.45. Revenue troughed from $2.27B (2022) to $1.81B (2023) in the M&A downcycle, then recovered to $2.39B and $2.62B in 2025/2026 with operating margin re-expanding from 18.9% to 23.6% and gross margin firming to 38.5%. Net income has recovered to $425.7M with OCF/NI of 1.43x and accruals of -5.2% of assets, i.e. earnings are backed by cash, not paper. Dilution discipline is genuinely rare for this industry: diluted shares moved from 68.3M in 2022 to 68.4M in 2026 - a 0.1% CAGR - implying SBC is being neutralized. Insider tape is mostly routine awards and trust transfers; the one open-market S-sale ($941K by Beiser) followed a C-conversion and is not a directional signal. Business quality risks are structural to advisory rather than idiosyncratic: revenue is deal-flow dependent (the 2023 -20% drop shows the cyclicality), and durability rests on human capital and franchise reputation rather than contracted recurring revenue - things not verifiable from these numbers alone.

Strengths 5
m78
Fortress balance sheet, no leverage
$1.19B liquid cash equals net cash (no debt drag), Altman Z 4.45 (safe zone). Survival is not a question under any realistic scenario.
m72
High earnings quality
OCF/NI 1.43x and accruals -5.2% of assets indicate reported earnings are conservative relative to cash generation; no mechanical red flags.
m70
Exceptional dilution discipline for advisory
Diluted shares 68.3M (2022) to 68.4M (2026) - 0.1% CAGR - very unusual in a bonus-heavy people business, implying real buyback offset of SBC.
m65
Post-trough margin expansion
Operating margin rebounded from 18.9% (2023) to 23.6% (2026) as revenue grew from $1.81B to $2.62B - operating leverage is intact.
m55
Strong cash conversion
FCF $681.8M on $425.7M net income; five-year FCF averages roughly $513M/yr - a capital-light model.
Concerns 2
m45
Cyclical revenue dependence on deal flow
2023 revenue fell 20% and FCF collapsed to $85.5M from $727.9M - the business is inherently tied to M&A cycles, though it stayed profitable.
m25
Moat rests on unmeasurable human capital
As an advisory firm, franchise value sits with senior bankers; the data cannot confirm retention economics or partner turnover.
This looks like a genuinely well-run advisory franchise. What jumps out is the dilution discipline - keeping diluted shares essentially flat over five years in a people-driven, bonus-heavy business is uncommon and shows management actually protects per-share economics. The 2023 dip proves this is cyclical, not secular, and they navigated it while still earning $254M. Earnings quality checks are clean, cash conversion is strong, and there's no leverage. The ceiling on quality is the business model itself - advisory revenue will always be lumpy and moat-durability sits in people, not contracts - so I do not push this into the 87+ elite tier, but as a business state it is solidly strong.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Compensation-to-revenue ratio and SBC absolute dollars from the 10-K to confirm buyback offset thesis
  • Segment mix between Corporate Finance, Financial Restructuring, and Financial Advisory - restructuring counter-cyclicality is a quality feature if durable
  • Managing Director headcount trend and retention/vesting terms
  • Backlog and engagement pipeline commentary
  • Actual buyback authorization and repurchases executed vs. SBC granted
Valuation / Mispricing
-46
Fairly Valued
edge √Σ 30 · risk √Σ 79 · conf 6/10
Price $122.67 vs composite deserved ~$132.60, ~8% gap - inside noise, essentially fair. attractive below $105.00

The e2e composite pins fair value at $132.60 and signal-adjusted at $139.23, implying ~8-14% upside from $122.67. That is not a margin of safety - it is roughly the range of normal analytical noise for an advisory franchise trading near cycle-recovery earnings. The three methods disagree sharply: DCF says $182.51, EPV floor says $76.24, anchored P/E says $89.15. The DCF is doing all the heavy lifting; strip it out and the other two average around $83 - well below spot. That spread tells me the composite is generous and the deserved price sits closer to the mid-$120s than the mid-$130s.

Cheap signals 1
m30
Quality franchise at ~8% discount to composite FV
Strong business quality (score 77), clean earnings, disciplined dilution. At $122.67 vs $132.60 composite there is a modest discount, but not a margin of safety worth pounding the table for.
Rich / priced-in 3
m55
EPV and anchored-PE both sit well below price
EPV floor $76.24 and anchored-PE $89.15 average ~$83, roughly 32% below the $122.67 print. The composite only clears price because the DCF at $182.51 pulls the average up.
m45
DCF looks like the outlier, not the truth
A $182.51 DCF is ~50% above spot and ~2x the two backward-looking methods. In a cyclical advisory business this almost always means the terminal growth or margin assumption is doing too much work - I discount it heavily.
m35
Priced for continued cycle recovery
M&A and restructuring fees are both near cyclical inflection; paying near composite FV assumes advisory fee growth continues without a refinancing-cycle stall. That is the bull case already in the multiple.
This is a lovely business at a fair price, and fair prices do not make me money. The composite says 8-14% upside but two of three methods say the stock is expensive; the DCF is carrying the verdict and I do not trust a $182 DCF on a cyclical advisory. I would want this closer to $105 - roughly the midpoint between the anchored-PE and the composite - before the quality-adjusted math actually offers a margin of safety. At $122.67 I pass and wait.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Segment mix of restructuring vs M&A vs financial/valuation advisory - is restructuring revenue actually rolling over as distress fades?
  • Managing director headcount growth and comp ratio trend - the lever that separates a $180 DCF from an $89 anchored P/E
  • Backlog/engagement letter commentary in the next transcript for forward fee visibility
  • Any one-time gains or catch-up fees flattering trailing EPS that would lower deserved value
General Sentiment
+17
Tailwind
tail √Σ 67 · head √Σ 50 · conf 6/10

The pressure on HLI right now is mildly positive and mostly narrative-driven. Two credible headlines in the last 72 hours crown HLI the #1 North American M&A adviser by deal volume in H1 2026 — exactly the kind of validation that reinforces the steady-compounder archetype without inflating it into a cult story. Narrative intensity is minimal and durability moderate, so this is a slow-burn tailwind, not a mania: no crowded long, no story to break.

Tailwinds 3
m55
League-table crown reinforces the franchise story
Back-to-back headlines naming HLI the top North American M&A adviser by H1 2026 deal volume feed directly into the steady-compounder narrative and give sell-side and allocators a clean talking point. Not a mania catalyst, but a real, current press on tape.
m30
Neutral-to-mild-risk-on tape with beta near 1
With the tape at +22 and VIX 16, there is no risk-off mauling to fear. Beta 0.96 means HLI absorbs the market at par — a modest positive push, not amplified either way.
m25
Recovering M&A cycle narrative helps advisory names
The prevailing capital-markets narrative in 2026 has tilted toward M&A reawakening; HLI is a pure-play beneficiary of that rotation regardless of its own fundamentals.
Headwinds 3
m35
Rates and stretched market PE cap multiple expansion
10y at 4.68% and market PE 26.9 keep a lid on rerating for a name already trading at peak-cycle multiples. Doesn't push HLI down, but limits how far sentiment can carry it up.
m30
Restructuring-pool-shrinking counter-narrative lingers
The bear frame - that HLI's distressed moat is a fading revenue pool as credit conditions normalize - is a live, if quiet, drag that shows up whenever cyclicals wobble.
m20
Recent momentum decelerating vs long-term trend
9.6% recent vs 16.9% long-term CAGR is a mild loss of tape thrust; not damning, but sentiment is not accelerating into these headlines.
Net tailwind, but a soft one. HLI is a low-beta, low-cult, steady-compounder story getting a fresh piece of tangible validation (top NA M&A adviser) into a neutral-positive tape - that's a genuine push up, but the narrative intensity is minimal so it won't run hot. The offsets - stretched market multiple, high rates, and a quiet bear frame around cycle peakiness - keep this from being a Strong Tailwind. Call it a mild press higher; the tape is helping more than hurting, and the news flow is doing real work.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Whether league-table headlines trigger sell-side target revisions in the next 2-4 weeks
  • Any credit-spread widening that would revive the cyclical-peak-earnings bear frame
  • H2 2026 M&A announced-deal pace to confirm the rotation narrative
  • VIX regime stability - a break above 20 would flip the muted-macro read
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
Growth Outlook
not run

This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.

The forward growth verdict — is the business itself likely to grow (next 2 quarters / year 1 / years 2–3), judged against its category and against printed expectations. The full horizon ladder + creme renders on the Growth Outlook card above. Not a call on the price (Valuation owns that) or the tape (Sentiment owns that).
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Lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure), and Growth Outlook (the forward growth verdict). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
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My Notes personal — only you see this
v1.1.562 · 9b2927c4 · 2026-08-22 16:52:06