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AGING Analysis Report
Aug 3, 2026
20 days ago · 100% complete
NOT DEPENDABLE This report predates a filing — its financial basis has been replaced.
Report generated: Aug 3, 2026 · Filing on record since: Aug 19, 2026 · 15 days after
For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page

What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Hamilton Lane Inc. (HLNE) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.

Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Watch · Gem Score +19 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 63 · Value -17 · Sentiment -1 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $177.12 vs $93.06 at analysis

Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable reference-name attribute you can cite):

  • profile-header / price-overview — company profile, live quote, market cap
  • extended-analysisthe core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memo
  • future-predictions — our forward price-band predictions
  • market-narrative / ai-findings / gpt-critique — narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)
  • Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers): price-history, income-trend, key-metrics, financials (statement tables), insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.

More for machine readers: site briefing at /llms.txt · any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER · raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds); every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.

Hamilton Lane Inc.

HLNE NASDAQ
Financial Services · Asset Management
Philadelphia, PA 19428, United States hamiltonlane.com Updated Aug 3, 11:33am
Price
$92.21
Market Cap
$4.9B
Employees
785
Beta
1.17
Avg Volume
868,720
Last Dividend
$2.22
CEO
Mr. Erik R. Hirsch

Hamilton Lane is a global private markets investment manager specializing in alternative investment solutions for institutional and wealth clients worldwide. The firm manages a diverse range of investment strategies across private equity, venture capital, and direct credit, including early-stage ventures, middle-market buyouts, growth equity, and real assets. Hamilton Lane offers customized separate accounts, specialized funds, and technology-enabled solutions designed to meet the unique financial objectives of each investor. The company serves over 2,600 institutional and private wealth investors across multiple global offices, leveraging proprietary market data and analytical tools to identify investment opportunities. Founded in 1991 and headquartered in Philadelphia, Hamilton Lane combines decades of client-focused expertise with data-driven insights to deliver tailored private markets exposure and industry-leading service to help clients achieve superior investment returns and enhanced financial well-being.

Runs with full report Generated: Aug 3, 2026 11:49am
Price Overview
Price at report time
$92.55
as of Aug 3, 12:08pm (20d ago)
Change · Aug 3
+3.64 (+4.09%)
Day Range
$90.54 – $93.59
52-Week Range
$71.88 – $161.13
50-Day MA
$83.01
200-Day MA
$108.75
Volume
38,348.00
Right now · live
Log in to get the live feed
Members see the real-time price and the move since this report (over 20d).
Share Structure
Outstanding 43,697,484.00
Float 40,699,725.00
Free Float 93.1%
High free float — 93.1% of shares trade freely, ~6.9% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 12:08pm (20d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 12:07pm (20d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
TD Twelve Data statement HEX SEC filing
Industry comparison last run: Aug 3, 2026 11:47am
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
HEX
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
15.58
Stock Price: $92.21
EPS (Diluted): 5.92
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
HEX
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
2.65
Stock Price: $92.21
Total Equity: $1.47B
Shares: 42,091,216
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
HEX
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
11.99
Market Cap: $4.94B
Total Debt: $278.42M
Cash: $371.90M
EBITDA: $404.00M
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
HEX
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$4.8B
Market Cap: $4.94B
Total Debt: $278.42M
Cash: $371.90M
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
HEX
Gross Profit / Revenue
69.9%
Gross Profit: $530.36M
Revenue: $758.99M
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
HEX
Operating Income / Revenue
42.8%
Operating Income: $324.94M
Revenue: $758.99M
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
HEX
Net Income / Revenue
32.8%
Net Income: $249.18M
Revenue: $758.99M
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
HEX
Net Income / Total Equity
17.0%
Net Income: $249.18M
Total Equity: $1.47B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
HEX
NOPAT / Invested Capital
19.8%
Operating Income: $324.94M
Tax Rate: 16.2%
Equity: $1.47B
Total Debt: $278.42M
Cash: $371.90M
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
HEX
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
Current Assets: N/A
Current Liabilities: N/A
Missing from API: Current Assets, Current Liabilities
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
HEX
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.19
Short-Term Debt: $0.00
Long-Term Debt: $278.42M
Total Debt: $278.42M
Total Equity: $1.47B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
HEX
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$18.03
Revenue: $758.99M
Shares: 42,091,216
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
HEX
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$34.84
Total Equity: $1.47B
Shares: 42,091,216
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
HEX
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$9.96
Operating CF: $424.92M
CapEx: -$5.84M
Shares: 42,091,216
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
TD
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
2.4%
Last Dividend: $2.22
Stock Price: $92.21
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
HEX
Dividends Paid / Net Income
35.2%
Dividends Paid: -$87.71M
Net Income: $249.18M
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Aug 3, 2026 11:47am
Compares HLNE against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 12:07pm (20d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Revenue $367.9M $528.8M $553.8M $713.0M $759.0M
Cost of Revenue $108.4M $149.3M $166.4M $208.2M $228.6M
Gross Profit $259.5M $379.4M $387.4M $504.7M $530.4M
Operating Expenses $90.0M $139.4M $141.6M $188.2M $205.4M
Operating Income $169.6M $240.0M $245.8M $316.6M $324.9M
Net Income $146.0M $109.1M $140.9M $217.4M $249.2M
EBITDA $323.8M $258.7M $301.0M $384.9M $404.0M
EPS $4.02 $3.05 $3.72 $5.45 $5.99
EPS (Diluted) $3.98 $3.01 $3.69 $5.41 $5.92
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 11:34am (20d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Cash & Equivalents $76.2M $116.6M $119.6M $283.6M $371.9M
Total Current Assets
Total Assets $1.3B $1.1B $1.3B $1.7B $2.3B
Current Liabilities
Long-Term Debt $171.3M $213.5M $196.2M $290.3M $278.4M
Total Liabilities $557.5M $566.4M $595.2M $766.5M $838.4M
Total Equity $737.5M $574.2M $676.0M $923.9M $1.5B
Retained Earnings
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 12:07pm (20d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Operating Cash Flow $169.5M $226.6M $120.9M $300.8M $424.9M
Capital Expenditure -$8.5M -$4.7M -$11.1M -$12.2M -$5.8M
Free Cash Flow $161.0M $221.8M $109.8M $288.7M $419.1M
Acquisitions (net) -$10.1M -$1.5M
Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) $25.0M $31.7M $0
Dividends Paid -$49.6M -$72.4M -$65.4M -$76.0M -$87.7M
Stock Buybacks $-1,000 $0 $-2,000 $-2,000
Net Change in Cash -$14.2M $40.4M $3.1M $164.0M $88.3M
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 12:07pm (20d ago)
Metric 2023 2024 2025 2026
Revenue Growth +43.7% +4.7% +28.7% +6.5%
Gross Profit Growth +46.2% +2.1% +30.3% +5.1%
Operating Income Growth +41.6% +2.4% +28.8% +2.7%
Net Income Growth -25.3% +29.1% +54.4% +14.6%
EBITDA Growth -20.1% +16.4% +27.9% +5.0%
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 11:34am (20d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-06-18 $0.60
2026-03-20 $0.54
2025-12-19 $0.54
2025-09-19 $0.54
2025-06-20 $0.54
2025-03-14 $0.49
2024-12-16 $0.49
2024-09-16 $0.49
2024-06-14 $0.49
2024-03-14 $0.45
2023-12-14 $0.45
2023-09-14 $0.45
2023-06-14 $0.45
2023-03-14 $0.40
2022-12-14 $0.40
2022-09-14 $0.40
2022-06-14 $0.40
2022-03-14 $0.35
2021-12-14 $0.35
2021-09-14 $0.35
0Company Classification 1Industry Landscape 2Company Momentum 3Forward Projection 4aDCF Valuation 4bEarnings Power Value 4cAnchored PE 4dReverse DCF 4eRevenue-Based DCF 4fAnchored P/S 4gScenario Analysis 4hDividend Discount Model 4iBook Value Analysis 4jInsider Activity 4fCash Flow Quality 4gDebt Maturity Risk 4hMacro Environment 4iSector Intelligence 4jRevenue Confidence 4kSensitivity Analysis 4lSector Demand Cycle 5AI Investigation 5bThesis Evaluation 6Valuation Synthesis
computed not applicable 18 computed · 6 not applicable
Risk : Reward — if the last quarter repeats
Live · as of 2026-08-19 08:57
4.7 : 1 recovery upside vs repeat-quarter downside
Recovery pays +226%; another quarter like the worst recent one costs 48%. Ratio 4.7:1. Caveat: revenue-DCF fits financials poorly (reported revenue omits net interest) — treat the legs as rough.
CaseGrowthMarginFair valuevs price ($93.06)
Bull — recovery +61% 35.0% $303.57 +226%
Base — stabilizes +41% 32.1% $169.11 +82%
Bear — keeps slipping +20% 27.3% $83.84 -10%
Stress — last quarter repeats -2% 32.1% $48.32 -48%
The next quarters keep the trajectory of the worst recent matched quarter (ending 2026-03-31) — growth stays at -2.2% and margins bend by the same profit-vs-revenue ratio (×1.00). Stress is a trajectory, not a prediction — it answers "what if the ship's current heading simply continues," which history says is the case to respect.
Why this is appearing: this company files quarterly, so its recent trajectory could be measured rather than assumed — the engine matched Jun 2026 against the same quarter one year earlier and found revenue +56.5% · net income +49.7% year-over-year. That measured heading is what the stress case extends forward. Of those, the stress case extends the worst matched quarter — the one ending Mar 31, 2026 (revenue -2.2% YoY) — not the average. Data measured through Jun 30, 2026 — this card recalculates automatically when the next quarterly filing is ingested. Companies without quarterly filings (many foreign listings) never show this card: with no measured trajectory, there is nothing honest to repeat.
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for HLNE — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
Independent analyst synthesis · claude-opus-4-7 · generated 2026-08-03 12:07:02
Verdict I partially agree with the synthesis. HLNE is modestly undervalued, not fairly valued — but the models are overweighting momentum signals (95% FCF CAGR, 33% earnings CAGR) that reflect base effects and a favorable tax/mix year, not a durable run rate. Normalized earnings power is probably $260–290M in FY27, worth ~22-24x = $110–125/share. At $92, you're getting a 15-20% discount to a defensible intrinsic value with a 2.4% dividend, high ROIC (19.8%), clean balance sheet ($372M cash vs $278M debt), and genuine secular tailwinds — but not the fat pitch the "market tailwinds" and "sector leader" tags imply. Position size accordingly: this is a starter, not a table-pounder, and the deceleration to 6.5% recent revenue YoY needs to reverse in the next two prints or the multiple compression thesis gains oxygen.

Looking at the raw print first: FY26 revenue $759M vs FY22 $368M is a 20% four-year CAGR, with net income compounding from $146M (FY22, which included one-time items) to $249M FY26 — but the cleaner comp is FY23's $109M to FY26's $249M, a 32% earnings CAGR. Operating margin has expanded from 46% (FY22) to 43% (FY26) — flat-to-slightly-down on a normalized basis, so the earnings growth is coming from revenue scale and lower effective tax/non-op items, not operating leverage. FCF of $419M against a $4.94B market cap is an 8.5% FCF yield, and with capex at $5.8M this is a genuinely capital-light fee business. Quarterly revenue is noisy ($150M–$199M range) because performance fees lump, but the four-quarter trailing to Mar-26 ($759M) is up 6.5% YoY vs FY25's $713M — a clear deceleration from the 29% jump FY24→FY25. That deceleration is what the market is pricing.

The synthesis calling this "fair value" at $102–113 vs $92 feels directionally right but the methods disagreeing is a real tell — the fcf_cagr of 95.4% is a garbage input driven by a low base year, and any DCF anchored on it overshoots. On more defensible assumptions (10-12% revenue growth, 42% op margins, 25x on $250M NI trending to $300M in two years), you get $6.0–7.5B equity value, or $112–140/share — so the base case is modest undervaluation, not a screaming buy. The market-forces "cyclical trough" framing is overstated: fee-related earnings at HLNE are ~85% of the mix and grew through the 2022–23 PE freeze; this isn't Blackstone with performance-fee whiplash. The narrative-economics read (18% discount, minimal intensity, moderate durability) is the most honest of the model outputs.

The contrarian case worth taking seriously: private markets penetration among institutional LPs may already be near saturation (endowments/pensions at 25-30% alts allocations), and the retail/wealth channel that everyone is banking on for the next leg is (a) crowded — Blackstone, Apollo, Ares, KKR, Blue Owl all chasing the same RIA shelf space — and (b) fee-compressive. HLNE's 43% operating margin and 70% gross margin will get tested as advisory/tech platform revenue mix grows (lower margin than management fees). The insider "purchases" on 2026-06-11 are suspicious — four purchases on the same day totaling ~54K shares looks more like a coordinated 10b5-1 or option exercise than genuine open-market conviction; without named insiders and dollar amounts I'd discount this signal heavily. The A-Awards are just RSU vests, not signal. Also worth flagging: the 34.2% net margin in the March quarter and 37.1% in September are unusually high — likely incentive fee catch-ups — and the "steady quarterly trend" label is wrong; this is lumpy.

GPT Reading
Independent reading · gpt-5.4 · generated 2026-08-03 12:07:20
Verdict Undervalued at $92 — a high-margin, net-cash alternative manager with durable cash generation should trade closer to $105 unless revenue slips below the current ~$190M quarterly plateau.

Hamilton Lane looks cheaper than the quality of the business, but the reason is obvious in the numbers: this is a very good asset manager with a more cyclical earnings stream than the headline P/E suggests. The core facts are hard to dislike. Revenue rose from $553.8M in FY2024 to $713.0M in FY2025 and then to $759.0M in FY2026, while net income climbed from $140.9M to $217.4M to $249.2M. That is not financial engineering; the operating margin is still an exceptional 42.8% and net margin 32.8%. The balance sheet is clean, with $371.9M of cash against $278.4M of debt, and the business throws off real cash: $424.9M of operating cash flow and $419.1M of free cash flow on just $759.0M of revenue. Even allowing for working-capital noise that can flatter asset managers, that level of cash conversion is striking. At $4.94B market cap, investors are paying about 11.9x EV/EBITDA and 15.6x earnings for a firm compounding revenue at a mid-teens clip over several years with ROIC near 20%. That is not a demanding multiple.

What stands out most is that the business has kept growing through a choppy private-markets backdrop, but the pace is normalizing rather than breaking. Quarterly revenue over the last five quarters has ranged from $176.0M to $198.6M; that is stable, not explosive. The latest quarter at $193.6M was actually down sequentially from $198.6M, though up modestly from $198.0M a year earlier if you compare the March quarter. Net income has been volatile quarter to quarter — $50.5M, $53.7M, $70.9M, $58.4M, $66.2M over the last five quarters — but volatility around a high base is very different from deterioration. In other words, the market seems to be pricing HLNE like a good-but-exposed manager whose best growth is behind it, while the reported data say something milder: growth has decelerated into high-single digits, but margins and cash generation remain elite. For a fee-based franchise with modest leverage and insider buying in June, that setup leans favorable.

The key issue is whether the current earnings power is clean enough to capitalize at a higher multiple. I think mostly yes, but not without a haircut. Hamilton Lane’s FY2026 net income of $249.2M against a $4.94B market cap implies a straightforward earnings yield around 5%, and that is before giving credit for net cash. If this were a plain-vanilla traditional manager facing obvious outflows, 15.6x would be fair. But HLNE is not producing plain-vanilla economics: gross margin near 70%, operating margin above 40%, ROE near 17%, and almost trivial capex requirements make this a structurally advantaged platform. The market’s caution is understandable because private-markets activity can swing with exits, fundraising, and marks, yet the actual reported results do not show stress severe enough to justify a discounted-market multiple. My read is that fair value is above the current price, but not dramatically so; something in the low $100s is reasonable if earnings merely hold near the FY2026 run rate and revenue growth stays positive.

The best argument against that bullish read is that the stock may be optically cheap because FY2026 is closer to a local high-water mark than a durable base. Annual revenue growth slowed sharply from 28.7% in FY2025 to 6.5% in FY2026, and quarterly revenue has flattened around the $190M level. If performance fees or transaction-linked economics are still elevated relative to what a softer private-equity realization environment can support, then 15.6x earnings is not cheap at all — it is the right multiple on peak-ish earnings. The P/S of 5.1x and EV/revenue of 6.4x are not bargain-basement for any manager exposed to fee pressure, and the quarter-to-quarter margin swings from 25.5% to 37.1% suggest this is not a perfectly annuity-like business. A smart bear would also note that FY2022 net income of $146.0M on just $367.9M of revenue was actually a higher margin year than FY2024, a reminder that earnings here can be noisy and path-dependent rather than cleanly scalable every year.

What would change my mind is straightforward. If the next few quarters show revenue slipping below the recent $190M neighborhood — say, two consecutive quarters under $180M — while net margin falls toward the mid-20s, I would conclude FY2026 overstated normalized earnings and the current multiple is fair at best. Likewise, if annual free cash flow retreats materially from $419.1M without a clear one-off explanation, I would stop leaning on cash conversion as part of the thesis. On the other hand, if HLNE can keep quarterly revenue around $195M-$205M, sustain net income above roughly $60M per quarter, and continue insider buying or disciplined capital returns, the market should re-rate this into at least the $100-$110 range.

Grok Reading
Independent reading · grok-4.5 · generated 2026-08-03 12:07:58
Verdict Undervalued at $92 — high-teens FCF quality and net-cash fortress worth $110–120 on normalized growth

Hamilton Lane at $92.21 is a high-quality private-markets asset manager the market is treating like a mid-tier cyclical when the cash economics say otherwise. Annual revenue climbed from $367.9M in FY2022 to $759.0M in FY2026, a 17.1% CAGR, while net income compounded at 33% to $249.2M and free cash flow hit $419.1M on negligible $5.8M capex—an 8.5% FCF yield at the current $4.94B market cap. Operating margin sits at 42.8%, net margin 32.8%, ROIC 19.8%, and the balance sheet is net cash ($371.9M cash versus $278.4M debt, D/E 0.19). Quarterly revenue has been lumpy but directionally stable-to-up ($176M–$199M range over the last five prints), and the most recent quarter delivered a 34.2% net margin versus 25.5% a year earlier. At 15.6x earnings, 12.0x EV/EBITDA and 5.1x sales, with a 2.4% dividend covered by a 35% payout, the multiple embeds roughly mid-single-digit growth forever—well below what the FCF engine and secular alternatives allocation trend have already demonstrated.

The deceleration is real and cannot be waved away: recent revenue growth slowed to 6.5% YoY after the hyper-growth stretch, and private-markets fundraising and exit activity remain soft. That slowdown, plus legitimate questions about elevated performance fees and structural fee pressure across alts, is exactly why the stock sits ~18–22% below the internal composite fair-value range near $102–$113. Yet the quality of the earnings stream—sticky institutional capital, 70% gross margins, and nearly all earnings converting to cash—means the market is over-penalizing a temporary volume trough. Significant open-market insider purchases in June 2026 (roughly 54k shares across multiple filings) reinforce that management sees the same disconnect. The prior models’ “fair value” label despite a 22% signal-adjusted upside, and a near-neutral thesis score of –3, both under-weight the cash yield and balance-sheet fortress relative to the cyclical narrative.

The strongest opposing case is straightforward: if 6–7% revenue growth is the new run-rate rather than a trough, then 15.6x earnings and 6.4x EV/revenue are only adequate, not cheap, especially if performance fees normalize lower and LP re-ups stay muted. A smart bear would also note that the 95% FCF CAGR is partly base-effect driven and that alt-manager multiples can compress further if the PE exit market stays frozen another year. I weigh those risks as already in the price; an 8.5% FCF yield on a net-cash, 43% operating-margin franchise with demonstrated scale leaves a wide enough cushion that even modest re-acceleration or multiple normalization produces asymmetric upside.

I would flip to neutral or bearish if the next two quarters show sequential revenue declines below $180M, if AUM or fee-rate disclosures reveal sustained compression, or if FCF drops below $350M annualized without a clear one-time explanation. Conversely, any evidence of fundraising stabilization or PE exit volume recovery would confirm the trough thesis and likely re-rate the stock toward $115–$125.

Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Each AI above independently stated a direction (undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued) and how strongly it believes it (conviction, 0–5). We combine those into a Bull-Bear Index on a 0–10 scale: 5 is neutral, 10 is maximum bullish (undervalued at full conviction), 0 is maximum bearish. We compute the score ourselves with the same arithmetic for every seat — the models never grade their own bullishness — so the three are directly comparable. Δ shows how far each seat sits from the panel average of 8.7; a large Δ marks the dissenting voice, usually the one worth reading.
Claude claude-opus-4-7 8.0
undervalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ -0.7 vs panel · self: 6.0
GPT gpt-5.4 9.0
undervalued · conviction 4/5 · Δ +0.3 vs panel · self: 7.0
Grok grok-4.5 9.0
undervalued · conviction 4/5 · Δ +0.3 vs panel · self: 7.0
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-08-03 13:36:55
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality compounder - starter now, add on weakness 6/10
Genuinely elite alternatives manager at a fair-to-slightly-cheap price - a starter position, not a table-pound, with the Tuesday print as the real decision point.
The cruxWhether fee-related earnings growth reaccelerates from the recent 6.5% YoY plateau - because at $93 you are paying for continued AUM compounding, and the EPV floor of $63 is what you own if it stalls.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from HLNE's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionModerate Dilution
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The four lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+63
Strong
edge √Σ 134 · risk √Σ 59 · conf 8/10

Hamilton Lane looks like a genuinely high-quality specialty asset manager. Revenue has more than doubled from $367.9M (2022) to $759.0M (2026), gross margin sits consistently near 70%, and operating margin is ~43-46% — economics that reflect a scalable fee-based platform. Net income compounded from $146M to $249M and FCF from $161M to $419M, with OCF/NI of 1.44x and negative accruals (-4.6% of assets) confirming that reported earnings are backed by cash. Altman Z of 4.33 puts it firmly in the safe zone, and net cash of $93.5M plus $371.9M liquid means it self-funds comfortably. The forensic mechanical checks find no red flags. The blemish is dilution discipline: diluted shares have grown from 36.7M to 42.1M (a ~3.5% CAGR), SBC runs 6.7% of revenue, and buybacks recover essentially none of it — so per-share compounding lags business-level compounding. The insider tape is a genuine positive: Chairman Rogers made multiple open-market P-purchases totaling ~$8M+ in May-June 2026, joined by Berkman and Kramer, with zero sells over 12 months. That is real cash on the barrel from people who see the private-market fundraising and fee pipeline up close.

Strengths 4
m78
Elite margin structure sustained at scale
Gross margin ~70% and operating margin 42.8-46.1% held steady while revenue doubled from $367.9M to $759.0M over 4 years — indicates real operating leverage and pricing power in the fee model.
m72
Cash earnings quality is clean
OCF/NI 1.44x, accruals -4.6% of assets, FCF $419.1M vs net income $249.2M in 2026. Earnings are being over-covered by cash, the opposite of an aggressive-accrual profile.
m60
Self-funding with net cash
$371.9M liquid, $93.5M net cash, $419.1M annual FCF — no dependence on capital markets, Altman Z 4.33 confirms distance from distress.
m55
Meaningful insider open-market buying
Chairman Rogers bought ~93K shares for ~$8M in May-June 2026, joined by Berkman ($1.1M) and Kramer; zero P-Sales in 12 months. Cash-out-of-pocket at this scale from the top is a credibility signal.
Concerns 3
m50
Persistent per-share dilution
Diluted shares grew 36.7M to 42.1M (~3.5% CAGR), SBC ~6.7% of revenue, buyback/SBC ratio 0%. Business-level compounding is real but per-share compounding leaks meaningfully to comp.
m25
FCF volatility year-to-year
FCF swung from $221.8M (2023) to $109.8M (2024) then to $288.7M and $419.1M — likely timing of incentive fees and receivables, but worth verifying that the 2026 print is not front-loaded.
m20
Cyclicality of the alternatives fee base
Fee-related earnings depend on fundraising velocity and AUM growth in private markets; a prolonged LP allocation slowdown could pressure both management and incentive fees.
This is a high-quality specialty asset manager. The unit economics are genuinely elite - 70% gross margins and 43%+ operating margins sustained while doubling revenue is not something a mediocre business does, and the cash conversion backs the accounting. The insider tape is unusually clean: multiple senior insiders including the Chairman writing real checks with zero sells is the kind of signal I take seriously. My hesitation is that the shareholder gets a slightly smaller slice each year - 3.5% dilution with essentially no buyback offset is a structural leak that keeps this out of the fortress bracket. Solidly in the Strong zone, comfortably above 75, but the SBC discipline and inherent fee-cyclicality keep it well shy of 87.
Verify before trusting this (6)
  • Fee-related earnings vs incentive/carry earnings mix in the 10-K to gauge recurring vs episodic quality
  • AUM/fee-earning AUM growth and net inflows disclosed in filings
  • Customer/LP concentration and top-fund exposure
  • SBC vesting schedule and whether buyback authorization was actually used in FY2026
  • Working-capital and receivable movements behind the FCF jump from $288.7M to $419.1M
  • Any related-party or GP commitment obligations that consume cash
Valuation / Mispricing
-17
Fairly Valued
edge √Σ 57 · risk √Σ 74 · conf 6/10
Price $93 vs composite deserved ~$102, ~10% discount - within noise for a quality compounder, not a mispricing. attractive below $78.00

The e2e composite fair value is $102.13 and the signal-adjusted FV is $112.81, implying 10-22% upside from $93.06. That's a real but not fat margin of safety, and the range across methods is wide: anchored P/E says $133, DCF $106, but the EPV floor is only $63.26 - meaning if growth slows to a steady state, the stock is worth ~32% less than today. That EPV gap is the tell: much of the deserved value depends on continued fee-related earnings growth, which is exactly what the bear case questions.

Cheap signals 2
m45
Modest discount to composite FV
Trades at $93.06 vs $102.13 composite and $112.81 signal-adjusted FV - roughly 10-22% upside, a normal margin for a high-quality name.
m35
High earnings quality supports deserved value
Clean earnings and 43%+ operating margins mean the reported figures don't need a haircut, so the fair-value estimates are trustworthy rather than optimistic accounting.
Rich / priced-in 3
m55
EPV floor $63 signals fragility if AUM growth stalls
The no-growth earnings-power value of $63.26 is 32% below today's price - the market is already paying up for continued private-markets AUM expansion.
m40
Anchored P/E of $133 likely stretches history
The high end of the FV range assumes multiple and earnings both hold - in a private-markets slowdown scenario the bear paints, this anchor compresses fast.
m30
Quality is not a discount
The Strong quality grade justifies a premium multiple, but that premium is already embedded in the $93 price - buying quality at fair price is a hold, not a mispricing.
This is a fine business at a fair price, not a mispricing. A 10% discount to composite FV on a quality compounder is essentially noise, and the EPV floor at $63 tells me most of the deserved value is growth-dependent. I'd want it in the high-$70s - closer to the midpoint of EPV and DCF - before the risk/reward genuinely tilts. At $93 you're paying full freight for quality and hoping the private-markets tailwind persists; that's a decent hold, not a buy.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Fee-related earnings growth and management fee run-rate in latest quarter
  • Fundraising pace and dry powder deployment trends
  • SBC as a percent of revenue and dilution trajectory
  • Any guidance on incentive-fee realizations that could inflate near-term earnings
General Sentiment
-1
Balanced
tail √Σ 60 · head √Σ 61 · conf 6/10

HLNE sits in a low-drama sentiment pocket right now. The narrative is a steady-compounder with minimal intensity and low cult coefficient, meaning there is no mania to unwind and no story-collapse to fear — the tape moves this name on numbers, not vibes. The macro backdrop is mildly constructive (neutral-to-slight-tailwind regime, VIX 16, S&P only 1.6% off highs), but the 10y at 4.68% and market PE at 26.9 create a soft headwind for asset-light financials whose fee streams get discounted at higher rates, and beta 1.17 means HLNE amplifies whatever the tape delivers. The private-markets narrative itself is in a quiet de-rating phase — LP redemption chatter and slowing dry-powder deployment are the ambient bear whisper — but it is not acute. Newsflow is dominated by the imminent Q2 print (Tuesday, pre-open), which is the single largest near-term pressure point: analyst tone appears constructive (a 31%-below-fair-value note just dropped), momentum is strong_positive on a 3-year view but cooling recently (6.5% vs 17.1% long-term CAGR), suggesting the tape has already stopped rewarding the story ahead of the print. Net: forces roughly offset, with earnings-event risk the swing factor.

Tailwinds 3
m45
Constructive analyst framing pre-print
A '31% below fair value as growth narrative builds' note just landed 24h before earnings — that is analyst tone leaning positive and gives buyers cover if the print is decent.
m30
Neutral-to-mild-tailwind tape
Regime +22, VIX 16, S&P near highs — a benign backdrop that does not punish a 1.17-beta name and lets idiosyncratic news (a good print) get rewarded rather than sold.
m25
Low narrative intensity = no unwind risk
Steady-compounder archetype with minimal intensity and low cult means there is no crowded long to purge. Sentiment floor is firmer than a story stock's.
Headwinds 3
m35
Alt-manager narrative quietly de-rating
The private-markets bubble-deflation whisper (LP redemptions, slower deployment) is a persistent low-grade sector press. Not acute, but it caps multiple expansion across the cohort and HLNE wears the sector discount.
m30
Rates backdrop pressures fee-stream duration
10y at 4.68% and market PE 26.9 create a mild discount-rate headwind for asset-light compounders whose value is back-end-loaded AUM growth. Beta 1.17 amplifies any risk-off flinch.
m40
Earnings event risk into Tuesday print
Q2 reports pre-open with recent 6-month momentum cooling meaningfully vs long-term CAGR — the tape is not front-running a beat. Binary catalyst pressure into a name where the bear case hinges on AUM growth disappointing.
This is a Balanced read that leans neutral with a slight positive tilt into the print. There is no dominant force here — no mania to unwind, no narrative collapse in progress, no risk-off tape mauling high-beta names. What you have is a quietly de-rating sector meeting a constructive analyst note and a benign macro backdrop, with a binary earnings catalyst 24 hours out. If the print is clean, the low-intensity narrative gives room for a re-rate; if it disappoints, the alt-manager bear whisper gets louder. I would not lean hard either way on sentiment alone — the tape is waiting for the numbers.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Tuesday Q2 print reaction — beat/miss on AUM growth and fee-related earnings
  • Any LP redemption or fundraising-slowdown commentary from HLNE or alt-manager peers
  • Whether the alt-manager cohort (BX, ARES, APO) re-rates as a group post-print
  • 10y yield direction — a move above 4.8% pressures the whole fee-stream cohort
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
Growth Outlook
not run

This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.

The forward growth verdict — is the business itself likely to grow (next 2 quarters / year 1 / years 2–3), judged against its category and against printed expectations. The full horizon ladder + creme renders on the Growth Outlook card above. Not a call on the price (Valuation owns that) or the tape (Sentiment owns that).
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Lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure), and Growth Outlook (the forward growth verdict). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
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My Notes personal — only you see this
v1.1.562 · 9b2927c4 · 2026-08-22 16:52:06