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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Hamilton Lane Inc. (HLNE) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Watch · Gem Score +19 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 63 · Value -17 · Sentiment -1 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $177.12 vs $93.06 at analysis
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profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
price-history,income-trend,key-metrics,financials(statement tables),insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.
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Hamilton Lane Inc.
HLNE NASDAQHamilton Lane is a global private markets investment manager specializing in alternative investment solutions for institutional and wealth clients worldwide. The firm manages a diverse range of investment strategies across private equity, venture capital, and direct credit, including early-stage ventures, middle-market buyouts, growth equity, and real assets. Hamilton Lane offers customized separate accounts, specialized funds, and technology-enabled solutions designed to meet the unique financial objectives of each investor. The company serves over 2,600 institutional and private wealth investors across multiple global offices, leveraging proprietary market data and analytical tools to identify investment opportunities. Founded in 1991 and headquartered in Philadelphia, Hamilton Lane combines decades of client-focused expertise with data-driven insights to deliver tailored private markets exposure and industry-leading service to help clients achieve superior investment returns and enhanced financial well-being.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 5.92
Total Equity: $1.47B
Shares: 42,091,216
Total Debt: $278.42M
Cash: $371.90M
EBITDA: $404.00M
Total Debt: $278.42M
Cash: $371.90M
Revenue: $758.99M
Revenue: $758.99M
Revenue: $758.99M
Total Equity: $1.47B
Tax Rate: 16.2%
Equity: $1.47B
Total Debt: $278.42M
Cash: $371.90M
Current Liabilities: N/A
Long-Term Debt: $278.42M
Total Debt: $278.42M
Total Equity: $1.47B
Shares: 42,091,216
Shares: 42,091,216
CapEx: -$5.84M
Shares: 42,091,216
Stock Price: $92.21
Net Income: $249.18M
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 12:07pm (20d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $367.9M | $528.8M | $553.8M | $713.0M | $759.0M |
| Cost of Revenue | $108.4M | $149.3M | $166.4M | $208.2M | $228.6M |
| Gross Profit | $259.5M | $379.4M | $387.4M | $504.7M | $530.4M |
| Operating Expenses | $90.0M | $139.4M | $141.6M | $188.2M | $205.4M |
| Operating Income | $169.6M | $240.0M | $245.8M | $316.6M | $324.9M |
| Net Income | $146.0M | $109.1M | $140.9M | $217.4M | $249.2M |
| EBITDA | $323.8M | $258.7M | $301.0M | $384.9M | $404.0M |
| EPS | $4.02 | $3.05 | $3.72 | $5.45 | $5.99 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $3.98 | $3.01 | $3.69 | $5.41 | $5.92 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 11:34am (20d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $76.2M | $116.6M | $119.6M | $283.6M | $371.9M |
| Total Current Assets | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total Assets | $1.3B | $1.1B | $1.3B | $1.7B | $2.3B |
| Current Liabilities | — | — | — | — | — |
| Long-Term Debt | $171.3M | $213.5M | $196.2M | $290.3M | $278.4M |
| Total Liabilities | $557.5M | $566.4M | $595.2M | $766.5M | $838.4M |
| Total Equity | $737.5M | $574.2M | $676.0M | $923.9M | $1.5B |
| Retained Earnings | — | — | — | — | — |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 12:07pm (20d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $169.5M | $226.6M | $120.9M | $300.8M | $424.9M |
| Capital Expenditure | -$8.5M | -$4.7M | -$11.1M | -$12.2M | -$5.8M |
| Free Cash Flow | $161.0M | $221.8M | $109.8M | $288.7M | $419.1M |
| Acquisitions (net) | -$10.1M | -$1.5M | — | — | — |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | $25.0M | $31.7M | $0 | — | — |
| Dividends Paid | -$49.6M | -$72.4M | -$65.4M | -$76.0M | -$87.7M |
| Stock Buybacks | $-1,000 | $0 | $-2,000 | $-2,000 | — |
| Net Change in Cash | -$14.2M | $40.4M | $3.1M | $164.0M | $88.3M |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 12:07pm (20d ago)| Metric | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +43.7% | +4.7% | +28.7% | +6.5% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +46.2% | +2.1% | +30.3% | +5.1% |
| Operating Income Growth | +41.6% | +2.4% | +28.8% | +2.7% |
| Net Income Growth | -25.3% | +29.1% | +54.4% | +14.6% |
| EBITDA Growth | -20.1% | +16.4% | +27.9% | +5.0% |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 11:34am (20d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-18 | $0.60 | — | — | — |
| 2026-03-20 | $0.54 | — | — | — |
| 2025-12-19 | $0.54 | — | — | — |
| 2025-09-19 | $0.54 | — | — | — |
| 2025-06-20 | $0.54 | — | — | — |
| 2025-03-14 | $0.49 | — | — | — |
| 2024-12-16 | $0.49 | — | — | — |
| 2024-09-16 | $0.49 | — | — | — |
| 2024-06-14 | $0.49 | — | — | — |
| 2024-03-14 | $0.45 | — | — | — |
| 2023-12-14 | $0.45 | — | — | — |
| 2023-09-14 | $0.45 | — | — | — |
| 2023-06-14 | $0.45 | — | — | — |
| 2023-03-14 | $0.40 | — | — | — |
| 2022-12-14 | $0.40 | — | — | — |
| 2022-09-14 | $0.40 | — | — | — |
| 2022-06-14 | $0.40 | — | — | — |
| 2022-03-14 | $0.35 | — | — | — |
| 2021-12-14 | $0.35 | — | — | — |
| 2021-09-14 | $0.35 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Risk : Reward — if the last quarter repeats
Live · as of 2026-08-19 08:57Recovery pays +226%; another quarter like the worst recent one costs 48%. Ratio 4.7:1. Caveat: revenue-DCF fits financials poorly (reported revenue omits net interest) — treat the legs as rough.
| Case | Growth | Margin | Fair value | vs price ($93.06) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull — recovery | +61% | 35.0% | $303.57 | +226% |
| Base — stabilizes | +41% | 32.1% | $169.11 | +82% |
| Bear — keeps slipping | +20% | 27.3% | $83.84 | -10% |
| Stress — last quarter repeats | -2% | 32.1% | $48.32 | -48% |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
Looking at the raw print first: FY26 revenue $759M vs FY22 $368M is a 20% four-year CAGR, with net income compounding from $146M (FY22, which included one-time items) to $249M FY26 — but the cleaner comp is FY23's $109M to FY26's $249M, a 32% earnings CAGR. Operating margin has expanded from 46% (FY22) to 43% (FY26) — flat-to-slightly-down on a normalized basis, so the earnings growth is coming from revenue scale and lower effective tax/non-op items, not operating leverage. FCF of $419M against a $4.94B market cap is an 8.5% FCF yield, and with capex at $5.8M this is a genuinely capital-light fee business. Quarterly revenue is noisy ($150M–$199M range) because performance fees lump, but the four-quarter trailing to Mar-26 ($759M) is up 6.5% YoY vs FY25's $713M — a clear deceleration from the 29% jump FY24→FY25. That deceleration is what the market is pricing.
The synthesis calling this "fair value" at $102–113 vs $92 feels directionally right but the methods disagreeing is a real tell — the fcf_cagr of 95.4% is a garbage input driven by a low base year, and any DCF anchored on it overshoots. On more defensible assumptions (10-12% revenue growth, 42% op margins, 25x on $250M NI trending to $300M in two years), you get $6.0–7.5B equity value, or $112–140/share — so the base case is modest undervaluation, not a screaming buy. The market-forces "cyclical trough" framing is overstated: fee-related earnings at HLNE are ~85% of the mix and grew through the 2022–23 PE freeze; this isn't Blackstone with performance-fee whiplash. The narrative-economics read (18% discount, minimal intensity, moderate durability) is the most honest of the model outputs.
The contrarian case worth taking seriously: private markets penetration among institutional LPs may already be near saturation (endowments/pensions at 25-30% alts allocations), and the retail/wealth channel that everyone is banking on for the next leg is (a) crowded — Blackstone, Apollo, Ares, KKR, Blue Owl all chasing the same RIA shelf space — and (b) fee-compressive. HLNE's 43% operating margin and 70% gross margin will get tested as advisory/tech platform revenue mix grows (lower margin than management fees). The insider "purchases" on 2026-06-11 are suspicious — four purchases on the same day totaling ~54K shares looks more like a coordinated 10b5-1 or option exercise than genuine open-market conviction; without named insiders and dollar amounts I'd discount this signal heavily. The A-Awards are just RSU vests, not signal. Also worth flagging: the 34.2% net margin in the March quarter and 37.1% in September are unusually high — likely incentive fee catch-ups — and the "steady quarterly trend" label is wrong; this is lumpy.
GPT Reading
Hamilton Lane looks cheaper than the quality of the business, but the reason is obvious in the numbers: this is a very good asset manager with a more cyclical earnings stream than the headline P/E suggests. The core facts are hard to dislike. Revenue rose from $553.8M in FY2024 to $713.0M in FY2025 and then to $759.0M in FY2026, while net income climbed from $140.9M to $217.4M to $249.2M. That is not financial engineering; the operating margin is still an exceptional 42.8% and net margin 32.8%. The balance sheet is clean, with $371.9M of cash against $278.4M of debt, and the business throws off real cash: $424.9M of operating cash flow and $419.1M of free cash flow on just $759.0M of revenue. Even allowing for working-capital noise that can flatter asset managers, that level of cash conversion is striking. At $4.94B market cap, investors are paying about 11.9x EV/EBITDA and 15.6x earnings for a firm compounding revenue at a mid-teens clip over several years with ROIC near 20%. That is not a demanding multiple.
What stands out most is that the business has kept growing through a choppy private-markets backdrop, but the pace is normalizing rather than breaking. Quarterly revenue over the last five quarters has ranged from $176.0M to $198.6M; that is stable, not explosive. The latest quarter at $193.6M was actually down sequentially from $198.6M, though up modestly from $198.0M a year earlier if you compare the March quarter. Net income has been volatile quarter to quarter — $50.5M, $53.7M, $70.9M, $58.4M, $66.2M over the last five quarters — but volatility around a high base is very different from deterioration. In other words, the market seems to be pricing HLNE like a good-but-exposed manager whose best growth is behind it, while the reported data say something milder: growth has decelerated into high-single digits, but margins and cash generation remain elite. For a fee-based franchise with modest leverage and insider buying in June, that setup leans favorable.
The key issue is whether the current earnings power is clean enough to capitalize at a higher multiple. I think mostly yes, but not without a haircut. Hamilton Lane’s FY2026 net income of $249.2M against a $4.94B market cap implies a straightforward earnings yield around 5%, and that is before giving credit for net cash. If this were a plain-vanilla traditional manager facing obvious outflows, 15.6x would be fair. But HLNE is not producing plain-vanilla economics: gross margin near 70%, operating margin above 40%, ROE near 17%, and almost trivial capex requirements make this a structurally advantaged platform. The market’s caution is understandable because private-markets activity can swing with exits, fundraising, and marks, yet the actual reported results do not show stress severe enough to justify a discounted-market multiple. My read is that fair value is above the current price, but not dramatically so; something in the low $100s is reasonable if earnings merely hold near the FY2026 run rate and revenue growth stays positive.
The best argument against that bullish read is that the stock may be optically cheap because FY2026 is closer to a local high-water mark than a durable base. Annual revenue growth slowed sharply from 28.7% in FY2025 to 6.5% in FY2026, and quarterly revenue has flattened around the $190M level. If performance fees or transaction-linked economics are still elevated relative to what a softer private-equity realization environment can support, then 15.6x earnings is not cheap at all — it is the right multiple on peak-ish earnings. The P/S of 5.1x and EV/revenue of 6.4x are not bargain-basement for any manager exposed to fee pressure, and the quarter-to-quarter margin swings from 25.5% to 37.1% suggest this is not a perfectly annuity-like business. A smart bear would also note that FY2022 net income of $146.0M on just $367.9M of revenue was actually a higher margin year than FY2024, a reminder that earnings here can be noisy and path-dependent rather than cleanly scalable every year.
What would change my mind is straightforward. If the next few quarters show revenue slipping below the recent $190M neighborhood — say, two consecutive quarters under $180M — while net margin falls toward the mid-20s, I would conclude FY2026 overstated normalized earnings and the current multiple is fair at best. Likewise, if annual free cash flow retreats materially from $419.1M without a clear one-off explanation, I would stop leaning on cash conversion as part of the thesis. On the other hand, if HLNE can keep quarterly revenue around $195M-$205M, sustain net income above roughly $60M per quarter, and continue insider buying or disciplined capital returns, the market should re-rate this into at least the $100-$110 range.
Grok Reading
Hamilton Lane at $92.21 is a high-quality private-markets asset manager the market is treating like a mid-tier cyclical when the cash economics say otherwise. Annual revenue climbed from $367.9M in FY2022 to $759.0M in FY2026, a 17.1% CAGR, while net income compounded at 33% to $249.2M and free cash flow hit $419.1M on negligible $5.8M capex—an 8.5% FCF yield at the current $4.94B market cap. Operating margin sits at 42.8%, net margin 32.8%, ROIC 19.8%, and the balance sheet is net cash ($371.9M cash versus $278.4M debt, D/E 0.19). Quarterly revenue has been lumpy but directionally stable-to-up ($176M–$199M range over the last five prints), and the most recent quarter delivered a 34.2% net margin versus 25.5% a year earlier. At 15.6x earnings, 12.0x EV/EBITDA and 5.1x sales, with a 2.4% dividend covered by a 35% payout, the multiple embeds roughly mid-single-digit growth forever—well below what the FCF engine and secular alternatives allocation trend have already demonstrated.
The deceleration is real and cannot be waved away: recent revenue growth slowed to 6.5% YoY after the hyper-growth stretch, and private-markets fundraising and exit activity remain soft. That slowdown, plus legitimate questions about elevated performance fees and structural fee pressure across alts, is exactly why the stock sits ~18–22% below the internal composite fair-value range near $102–$113. Yet the quality of the earnings stream—sticky institutional capital, 70% gross margins, and nearly all earnings converting to cash—means the market is over-penalizing a temporary volume trough. Significant open-market insider purchases in June 2026 (roughly 54k shares across multiple filings) reinforce that management sees the same disconnect. The prior models’ “fair value” label despite a 22% signal-adjusted upside, and a near-neutral thesis score of –3, both under-weight the cash yield and balance-sheet fortress relative to the cyclical narrative.
The strongest opposing case is straightforward: if 6–7% revenue growth is the new run-rate rather than a trough, then 15.6x earnings and 6.4x EV/revenue are only adequate, not cheap, especially if performance fees normalize lower and LP re-ups stay muted. A smart bear would also note that the 95% FCF CAGR is partly base-effect driven and that alt-manager multiples can compress further if the PE exit market stays frozen another year. I weigh those risks as already in the price; an 8.5% FCF yield on a net-cash, 43% operating-margin franchise with demonstrated scale leaves a wide enough cushion that even modest re-acceleration or multiple normalization produces asymmetric upside.
I would flip to neutral or bearish if the next two quarters show sequential revenue declines below $180M, if AUM or fee-rate disclosures reveal sustained compression, or if FCF drops below $350M annualized without a clear one-time explanation. Conversely, any evidence of fundraising stabilization or PE exit volume recovery would confirm the trough thesis and likely re-rate the stock toward $115–$125.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Hamilton Lane looks like a genuinely high-quality specialty asset manager. Revenue has more than doubled from $367.9M (2022) to $759.0M (2026), gross margin sits consistently near 70%, and operating margin is ~43-46% — economics that reflect a scalable fee-based platform. Net income compounded from $146M to $249M and FCF from $161M to $419M, with OCF/NI of 1.44x and negative accruals (-4.6% of assets) confirming that reported earnings are backed by cash. Altman Z of 4.33 puts it firmly in the safe zone, and net cash of $93.5M plus $371.9M liquid means it self-funds comfortably. The forensic mechanical checks find no red flags. The blemish is dilution discipline: diluted shares have grown from 36.7M to 42.1M (a ~3.5% CAGR), SBC runs 6.7% of revenue, and buybacks recover essentially none of it — so per-share compounding lags business-level compounding. The insider tape is a genuine positive: Chairman Rogers made multiple open-market P-purchases totaling ~$8M+ in May-June 2026, joined by Berkman and Kramer, with zero sells over 12 months. That is real cash on the barrel from people who see the private-market fundraising and fee pipeline up close.
Verify before trusting this (6)
- Fee-related earnings vs incentive/carry earnings mix in the 10-K to gauge recurring vs episodic quality
- AUM/fee-earning AUM growth and net inflows disclosed in filings
- Customer/LP concentration and top-fund exposure
- SBC vesting schedule and whether buyback authorization was actually used in FY2026
- Working-capital and receivable movements behind the FCF jump from $288.7M to $419.1M
- Any related-party or GP commitment obligations that consume cash
The e2e composite fair value is $102.13 and the signal-adjusted FV is $112.81, implying 10-22% upside from $93.06. That's a real but not fat margin of safety, and the range across methods is wide: anchored P/E says $133, DCF $106, but the EPV floor is only $63.26 - meaning if growth slows to a steady state, the stock is worth ~32% less than today. That EPV gap is the tell: much of the deserved value depends on continued fee-related earnings growth, which is exactly what the bear case questions.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Fee-related earnings growth and management fee run-rate in latest quarter
- Fundraising pace and dry powder deployment trends
- SBC as a percent of revenue and dilution trajectory
- Any guidance on incentive-fee realizations that could inflate near-term earnings
HLNE sits in a low-drama sentiment pocket right now. The narrative is a steady-compounder with minimal intensity and low cult coefficient, meaning there is no mania to unwind and no story-collapse to fear — the tape moves this name on numbers, not vibes. The macro backdrop is mildly constructive (neutral-to-slight-tailwind regime, VIX 16, S&P only 1.6% off highs), but the 10y at 4.68% and market PE at 26.9 create a soft headwind for asset-light financials whose fee streams get discounted at higher rates, and beta 1.17 means HLNE amplifies whatever the tape delivers. The private-markets narrative itself is in a quiet de-rating phase — LP redemption chatter and slowing dry-powder deployment are the ambient bear whisper — but it is not acute. Newsflow is dominated by the imminent Q2 print (Tuesday, pre-open), which is the single largest near-term pressure point: analyst tone appears constructive (a 31%-below-fair-value note just dropped), momentum is strong_positive on a 3-year view but cooling recently (6.5% vs 17.1% long-term CAGR), suggesting the tape has already stopped rewarding the story ahead of the print. Net: forces roughly offset, with earnings-event risk the swing factor.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Tuesday Q2 print reaction — beat/miss on AUM growth and fee-related earnings
- Any LP redemption or fundraising-slowdown commentary from HLNE or alt-manager peers
- Whether the alt-manager cohort (BX, ARES, APO) re-rates as a group post-print
- 10y yield direction — a move above 4.8% pressures the whole fee-stream cohort
This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.